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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, October 08, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals
While I have nothing against the Cardinals and Cards fans may hate me for this, but the 2007 Cardinals have to be one of the absolute worst 78-84 teams I've seen. No Carpenter (with the exception of one poor start), only two regulars with OPS+s above 100, feel-good story turning feel-bad story after media piled on Ankiel, Edmonds and Rolen disappointing, Aaron Miles getting playing time, and the Cards picking up every starting pitcher that was released by another team this season, should add up to something a lot less than 78 wins. Even Pujols was ever-so-slightly less-Godlike than usual.
While ZiPS doesn't really like the starting pitching, it does at least have a couple of bright spots, relatively speaking. A 4.65 ERA from Reyes isn't exactly world-beating, but it would be a big boost to 2008 team. Jaime Garcia solidifies his claim as the only Cards starting pitcher prospect to be anywhere near ready and Colby Rasmus hit 271/381/551 for Springfield. The Cards don't have a lot of offensive depth in the infield, unfortunately, and it showed when Kennedy turned out not be a good option - Aaron Miles may be scrappy, but he's not very good and Brendan Ryan is unlikely to repeat his play in the majors. It complicates matters that So-So was a decent backup and Skip Schumaker played like a major league as there's a good shot that better players will be behind them in the depth chart again next year.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Albert Pujols 1b 28 .325 .432 .593 150 545 109 177 33 1 37 108 100 54 6 3
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .277 .356 .459 ------------------------------------------
Chris Duncan* lf 27 .262 .346 .472 133 409 59 107 21 1 21 66 51 112 2 2
Ryan Ludwick rf 29 .262 .330 .476 130 412 48 108 26 1 20 64 37 108 2 3
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .276 .348 .440 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .275 .345 .442 ------------------------------------------
John Rodriguez* lf 30 .259 .340 .442 101 274 39 71 16 2 10 42 29 73 2 0
Jim Edmonds* cf 38 .247 .344 .440 110 352 50 87 18 1 16 57 52 92 2 1
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .272 .342 .437 ------------------------------------------
Taggert Bozied 1b 28 .251 .329 .431 104 346 31 87 18 1 14 50 35 69 1 0
Russell Branyan* 3b 32 .220 .335 .424 77 191 26 42 9 0 10 26 32 67 1 0
Scott Spiezio# 3b 35 .253 .347 .392 77 194 27 49 10 1 5 27 24 41 0 0
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .270 .334 .414 ------------------------------------------
Colby Rasmus* cf 21 .245 .329 .419 121 425 46 104 23 3 15 50 46 90 14 5
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .275 .333 .403 ------------------------------------------
Scott Rolen 3b 33 .255 .331 .397 106 380 56 97 25 1 9 55 40 52 3 2
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .273 .328 .398 ------------------------------------------
Brian Barden 3b 26 .265 .310 .430 132 486 67 129 32 3 14 62 28 109 4 3
David Eckstein ss 33 .289 .348 .356 125 491 66 142 20 2 3 35 34 33 7 4
Juan Encarnacion rf 32 .264 .313 .407 106 386 48 102 18 2 11 54 24 66 3 2
AVERAGE C -------------- c ---- .258 .319 .391 ------------------------------------------
Rick Ankiel* rf 28 .241 .285 .458 122 448 46 108 18 2 25 77 27 105 2 2
Skip Schumaker* rf 28 .272 .314 .370 132 397 45 108 20 2 5 33 23 57 4 3
Brendan Ryan ss 26 .265 .315 .351 117 396 61 105 18 2 4 22 27 44 13 3
Joe Mather rf 25 .227 .289 .394 117 406 40 92 21 1 15 46 28 81 4 0
So Taguchi cf 38 .263 .318 .336 122 304 39 80 14 1 2 30 21 44 8 2
Bryan Anderson* c 21 .258 .307 .347 111 380 38 98 17 1 5 41 26 73 0 2
Aaron Miles# 2b 31 .268 .311 .334 119 377 44 101 15 2 2 29 23 43 2 1
Yadier Molina c 25 .245 .307 .349 124 404 34 99 21 0 7 51 33 40 1 2
Preston Wilson lf 33 .242 .303 .342 78 281 28 68 13 0 5 30 22 70 3 1
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 25 .246 .318 .332 118 382 35 94 19 1 4 35 38 38 4 4
Adam Kennedy* 2b 32 .251 .310 .332 110 355 35 89 19 2 2 32 27 49 12 4
Miguel Cairo 2b 34 .253 .311 .325 71 194 22 49 11 0 1 16 14 23 7 1
Mark Hamilton* 1b 23 .228 .279 .382 116 403 33 92 20 0 14 62 27 92 2 0
Nick Stavinoha rf 26 .251 .289 .363 114 402 33 101 16 1 9 40 20 62 2 1
Cody Haerther* lf 24 .239 .286 .365 94 310 28 74 19 1 6 31 20 44 1 2
Danny Ardoin c 33 .220 .297 .332 88 232 29 51 14 0 4 19 21 52 2 0
Tyler Greene ss 24 .225 .288 .337 100 347 37 78 13 1 8 30 23 101 14 3
Gary Bennett c 36 .230 .284 .311 49 135 10 31 5 0 2 16 10 22 0 1
Travis Hanson* 3b 27 .211 .261 .305 110 383 36 81 13 1 7 33 24 75 0 1
Ryan Christianson c 27 .194 .256 .304 83 273 22 53 9 0 7 25 22 78 3 1
Kelly Stinnett c 38 .216 .264 .288 58 139 10 30 4 0 2 9 8 41 0 0
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight - Albert Pujols
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .354 .466 .684 156 567 132 201 42 2 47 143 114 48 8 2
Mean .325 .432 .593 150 545 109 177 33 1 37 108 100 54 6 3
Pessimistic (15%) .296 .397 .521 122 443 77 131 25 0 25 72 74 49 3 4
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Manny Ramirez, Hal Trosky
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Pujols Ex
Duncan* Av Fr Fr
Ludwick Av Fr Av
Rodriguez* Fr Fr
Edmonds* Av Av
Bozied Fr Pr Pr
Branyan* Av Fr Fr
Spiezio# Av Fr Av Av Av
Rasmus* Av
Rolen Ex
Barden Av Pr Vg Pr
Eckstein Av
Encarnacion Av Av
Ankiel* Av Pr Av
Schumaker* Av Av Av
Ryan Av Av Av
Mather Fr Vg
Taguchi Av Fr Av
Anderson* Fr
Miles# Av Av Pr
Molina Ex
Wilson Pr Pr Pr
Hoffpauir Av Av Fr
Kennedy* Av Fr
Cairo Av Av Fr Pr Av Av
Hamilton* Fr
Stavinoha Fr Fr
Haerther* Fr
Ardoin Av Fr
Greene Av
Bennett Pr
Hanson* Pr Fr
Christianson Av Fr
Stinnett Fr
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Russ Springer 39 2.95 5 2 68 0 58.0 47 19 5 19 53
Troy Percival 38 3.14 3 1 41 0 43.0 36 15 5 16 35
Jason Isringhausen 35 3.54 4 2 63 0 61.0 51 24 7 34 52
Chris Carpenter 33 3.56 12 8 27 27 187.0 183 74 18 38 145
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.03 -----------------------------------------------
Ryan Franklin 35 4.03 5 5 66 0 76.0 79 34 9 19 41
Randy Flores* 32 4.09 2 1 68 0 55.0 58 25 4 17 48
Adam Wainwright 26 4.13 13 11 31 31 194.0 202 89 20 57 131
Tyler Johnson* 27 4.33 2 1 66 0 54.0 51 26 7 23 44
Josh Kinney 29 4.39 3 4 66 0 80.0 78 39 8 42 64
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.41 -----------------------------------------------
Jason Motte 26 4.42 3 3 47 0 55.0 58 27 7 17 38
Todd Wellemeyer 29 4.44 3 3 36 9 79.0 77 39 9 43 59
Brian Falkenborg 30 4.50 4 5 61 0 70.0 75 35 7 25 49
Anthony Reyes 26 4.65 8 9 27 26 149.0 153 77 23 45 106
Jaime Garcia* 21 4.65 8 9 24 24 147.0 163 76 16 45 74
Braden Looper 33 4.84 9 11 28 28 160.0 173 86 19 54 83
Andy Cavazos 27 4.97 4 5 64 0 76.0 80 42 10 33 53
Mike Venafro* 34 4.98 1 2 53 0 47.0 54 26 4 21 21
Kelvin Jimenez 27 5.03 3 5 57 0 77.0 88 43 6 27 42
Mark Mulder* 30 5.06 7 11 24 24 144.0 162 81 18 59 79
Brad Thompson 26 5.15 4 7 48 12 117.0 135 67 20 38 55
Kip Wells 31 5.27 9 13 30 25 152.0 163 89 20 84 105
Mark Worrell 25 5.27 3 4 60 0 70.0 76 41 14 26 50
Chris Perez 22 5.28 2 2 59 0 58.0 55 34 9 37 53
Joel Pineiro 29 5.28 6 10 36 22 150.0 171 88 20 53 80
Chris Narveson* 26 5.36 4 7 20 19 99.0 108 59 17 44 57
Matt Scherer 25 5.42 4 7 60 0 83.0 95 50 15 27 58
Mitchell Boggs 24 5.49 7 11 28 28 164.0 196 100 22 61 81
Eric Haberer* 25 5.55 8 13 29 27 167.0 198 103 20 73 59
Mike Maroth* 30 5.59 6 11 28 23 145.0 171 90 25 52 79
Blake Hawksworth 25 5.72 6 11 26 26 148.0 179 94 24 48 70
Stuart Pomeranz 23 5.76 5 10 23 23 136.0 163 87 23 46 61
Troy Cate* 27 5.96 3 5 47 7 80.0 92 53 14 35 52
Adam Ottavino 22 5.98 6 13 27 27 134.0 160 89 24 56 79
Dennis Dove 26 6.05 3 5 49 0 61.0 69 41 13 23 39
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Anthony Reyes
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.75 12 8 31 30 173 162 72 21 44 133
Mean 4.65 8 9 27 26 149 153 77 23 45 106
Pessimistic (15%) 5.82 5 9 23 22 119 135 77 24 46 77
Top Near-Age Comps: Adam Eaton, Paul Moskau
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Garcia didn't pitch the last month or so of the season. I never heard exactly why, but presumably some kind of arm ailment.
And talk about a nose-dive: ZiPS had Scott Rolen projected at .287/.371/.509 entering 2007.
they are saying it's going to be ok, but they said the same thing about chris carpenter.
Whens the last time he played without being hurt? Looks like 2004.
And he probably will be... in a year and a half.
Reyes isn't putting up an ERA south of 5 for the Cardinals, DD/TLR or not.
You have to watch Aaron Miles everyday to appreciate how untalented he is.
we're in trouble.
I'll release it more periodically, even if certain things I want to do aren't done, just so people can have access to it.
On a side note, I saw Anthony Reyes and Brad Thompson at a Chipotle in Clayton this weekend ...
Dan, if you're taking requests, could you exclude Maroth and Wells?
what worries me more is his swing. i didn't see much of him, but what i saw had me wondering. it isn't very pretty, and it sure looks like the pitchers had him figured out toward the end of the season.
Carpenter + Wainwright ~= Snell + Gorzellany
The rest of the rotations are probably a wash, as are the bullpens, and most of the rest of the respective starting lineups.
I think this is more like bad news for the Cards than good news for the Pirates.
I laughed.
Everyone who thought that Josh Fogg would turn out to be the best pitcher involved the Todd Ritchie deal 6 years later, please raise your hand.
Partly cloudy (vision), 40% chance of (falling in the) showers.
Ooh, ooh, ooh...ooh-ooh...although not as good as I thought he'd be.
Holy crap, the Cards better hope LaRussa doesn't leave and take Dave Duncan with him.
And, Wow, in retrospect that reliever-starter conversion toy you developed came pretty close on Thompson and Loop! I'm still impressed with that toy.
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