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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, October 06, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The bad part of doing teams in reverse alphabetical order this year is that there are quite a few bleak teams at the end of the alphabet. I won't even get to a playoff team until the 10th set of projections, though at least San Diego shouldn't be depressing.A few people have asked if I've made any changes to ZiPS this year. The only significant change is that I spent a lot of 2007 working out a method to calculate the dreaded "level of play" issue. I've tried to err on the conservative side, but you should see slightly harsher projections for players going to the AL from the NL, and vice-versa. A few specific findings from head-to-head play also surprised me, with such tidbits as NL pitchers vs. AL hitters having a BABIP 20 points higher the last 3 years than the opposite matchup!
For the Devil Rays, while the pitching doesn't actually look good, they can make a decent improvement there without actually becoming good. Andy Sonnanstine might have been disappointing in his rookie season, but ZiPS sees him as the best bet to eat innings without being horrible in 2008 along with Wade Davis. I did the pitcher spotlight for him, just so that I don't have to do the same Scott Kazmir one every single year. ZiPS still sees Carlos Pena as being a really good player, just not a near-MVP candidate - while ZiPS was pretty bullish on Carlos Pena, it was bullish in the sense of "this guy is at least an average 1B and should start on quite a lot of teams, not getting NRIs" not "this guy is going to make a run at 50 homers. The offense as a whole finished with an OPS+ of 100, just the second time they managed that in their first decade. That's sustainable too, with not a single likely regular going to be 30 by next opening day. There are problematic spots in the defense, but some of that can be avoided by the hopefully inevitable Longoria-to-3rd/Iwamura-to-2nd/Upton-to-CF-permanently shuffle. Don't be fooled by that "FR" rating for Upton at 2B - he had an error rate at 2B more than 3 times the league-average!
Particularly heartening projections are those of Justin Ruggiano and Wade Davis. Wade Davis in particular had a breakthrough season, continuing to dominate on his promotion to AA after terrorizing the FSL and throwing a no-hitter. Big guy, live fastball, and one of John Sickels's favorites, if I recall.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Carlos Pena* 1b 30 .266 .400 .531 144 478 80 127 22 0 35 90 103 142 2 1
Carl Crawford* lf 26 .316 .356 .479 150 610 97 193 33 12 14 78 34 94 48 9
Justin Ruggiano rf 26 .288 .365 .464 135 466 72 134 27 2 17 67 52 146 16 8
Jonny Gomes rf 27 .256 .351 .481 127 422 65 108 22 2 23 64 55 136 9 5
AVERAGE 1B/DH ---------- 1b ---- .274 .355 .466 ------------------------------------------
B.J. Upton cf 23 .278 .363 .452 150 540 91 150 24 2 22 72 72 151 26 11
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .273 .347 .447 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .272 .344 .448 ------------------------------------------
Evan Longoria 3b 22 .260 .350 .436 120 408 50 106 21 0 17 61 49 93 2 0
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .274 .343 .445 ------------------------------------------
Rocco Baldelli cf 26 .274 .321 .472 79 307 45 84 19 3 12 38 18 60 6 2
Akinori Iwamura* 3b 29 .286 .358 .408 128 490 66 140 20 5 10 36 56 115 7 5
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .267 .332 .416 ------------------------------------------
Delmon Young rf 22 .292 .323 .424 149 589 65 172 34 1 14 83 26 115 11 3
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .271 .333 .405 ------------------------------------------
Greg Norton# dh 35 .250 .345 .384 76 232 31 58 10 0 7 26 31 56 1 1
Elijah Dukes# lf 24 .231 .334 .425 72 247 36 57 9 3 11 31 36 47 4 4
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .269 .326 .398 ------------------------------------------
Brendan Harris ss 27 .268 .330 .409 137 492 66 132 29 2 12 59 42 96 3 2
John Jaso* c 24 .262 .333 .379 101 340 37 89 17 1 7 41 35 53 1 1
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .255 .317 .393 ------------------------------------------
Ben Zobrist# ss 27 .252 .341 .362 120 420 56 106 22 3 6 35 54 70 10 5
Sergio Pedroza* rf 24 .226 .315 .387 115 367 33 83 21 1 12 42 37 112 0 2
Dioner Navarro# c 24 .244 .313 .365 112 373 45 91 16 1 9 44 37 85 2 1
Jason Pridie* cf 24 .253 .303 .379 139 494 55 125 22 5 10 44 32 94 14 7
Raul Casanova c 34 .233 .283 .395 57 172 16 40 7 0 7 20 12 39 0 0
Reid Brignac* ss 22 .243 .299 .369 131 493 59 120 23 3 11 54 37 102 8 4
Shawn Riggans c 27 .250 .299 .358 95 324 24 81 18 1 5 32 20 73 1 2
Elliot Johnson# 2b 24 .232 .295 .371 126 466 52 108 17 6 12 41 37 130 13 10
Josh Wilson ss 27 .237 .292 .350 112 354 45 84 18 2 6 33 25 82 8 3
Jorge Velandia ss 33 .248 .296 .345 104 371 39 92 20 2 4 31 24 78 5 3
Michel Hernandez c 29 .245 .307 .301 63 196 15 48 5 0 2 16 16 23 1 1
Brent Butler 3b 30 .247 .282 .338 87 308 26 76 17 1 3 23 15 42 0 1
Joel Guzman 3b 23 .221 .261 .346 103 353 26 78 12 1 10 41 18 90 4 1
Josh Paul c 33 .216 .274 .269 50 134 12 29 4 0 1 9 10 36 0 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Pena* Fr
Crawford* Ex Av
Ruggiano Av Fr Av
Gomes Fr Fr
Upton Fr Pr Pr Av
Longoria Av
Baldelli Av Av Av
Iwamura* Fr Av
Young Av Pr Vg
Norton# Av Pr Pr
Dukes# Av Pr Av
Harris Fr Av Pr
Jaso* Fr
Zobrist# Av Fr
Pedroza* Pr Fr Fr
Navarro# Av
Pridie* Vg Vg Vg
Casanova Fr
Brignac* Av
Riggans Av
Johnson# Av
Wilson Av Av Pr
Velandia Vg Av Av
Hernandez Av
Butler Fr Fr Fr Fr Fr
Guzman Fr Pr Fr
Paul Av
Player Spotlight - Carlos Pena
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .290 .413 .599 154 511 97 148 27 1 43 117 101 139 3 0
Mean .266 .385 .531 144 478 80 127 22 0 35 90 88 139 2 1
Pessimistic (15%) .241 .353 .466 114 378 54 91 16 0 23 57 64 118 1 1
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Mike Epstein, Jim Gentile
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Scott Kazmir* 24 3.64 13 9 32 32 198.0 187 80 19 71 217
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.17 -----------------------------------------------
Jay Witasick 35 4.24 2 1 50 2 51.0 49 24 4 31 51
Dan Wheeler 30 4.25 4 4 72 0 72.0 74 34 9 21 68
Jamie Shields 26 4.38 9 10 29 29 193.0 209 94 28 38 156
Wade Davis 22 4.47 8 8 29 29 167.0 182 83 15 59 117
Al Reyes 38 4.50 3 3 61 0 58.0 54 29 11 20 62
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.53 -----------------------------------------------
Scott Dohmann 30 4.56 3 4 68 0 71.0 74 36 10 31 66
Gary Glover 31 4.61 3 4 72 0 80.0 89 41 11 27 57
Grant Balfour 30 4.71 2 3 55 0 63.0 66 33 6 30 62
Juan Salas 29 4.73 2 2 48 0 59.0 62 31 9 27 52
Andrew Sonnanstine 25 4.79 11 14 31 31 201.0 229 107 29 36 138
Calvin Medlock 25 4.80 4 6 53 0 75.0 85 40 10 23 54
Tim Corcoran 30 4.81 5 7 37 9 88.0 96 47 10 39 56
J.P. Howell* 25 4.86 9 12 32 32 176.0 191 95 23 60 144
Jacob McGee* 21 4.86 7 9 28 28 148.0 159 80 20 59 116
Chad Orvella 27 4.89 4 5 55 0 70.0 77 38 9 28 54
Nick DeBarr 24 4.98 3 5 54 0 85.0 100 47 10 26 42
Mitch Talbot 24 4.98 9 12 31 30 168.0 196 93 17 58 97
Jason Hammel 25 5.00 7 11 33 28 162.0 181 90 20 58 116
Brian Shackelford* 31 5.04 2 3 61 0 50.0 60 28 5 19 27
Stephen Andrade 30 5.14 2 3 41 0 63.0 70 36 7 31 43
Jeff Niemann 25 5.23 6 10 22 22 117.0 138 68 16 37 75
Jon Switzer* 28 5.24 2 4 44 5 67.0 79 39 8 28 39
Jae-Kuk Ryu 25 5.32 6 11 31 23 142.0 171 84 20 48 85
James Houser* 23 5.51 5 8 25 24 134.0 154 82 25 44 92
Shawn Camp 32 5.53 4 6 61 3 83.0 104 51 10 30 54
Edwin Jackson 24 5.56 6 12 38 28 162.0 188 100 20 78 121
Jeff Ridgway* 27 5.57 2 5 51 2 63.0 70 39 12 30 51
Jae Wong Seo 31 5.58 7 12 31 28 166.0 209 103 27 43 90
Brian Stokes 28 5.71 4 9 37 17 112.0 139 71 17 43 65
Doug Waechter 27 5.86 5 11 25 22 129.0 165 84 20 39 65
Chuck Tiffany* 23 6.59 5 12 20 19 101.0 125 74 25 44 81
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Andrew Sonnanstine
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.85 15 12 34 34 227 235 97 25 30 174
Mean 4.79 11 14 31 31 201 229 107 29 36 138
Pessimistic (15%) 5.87 7 14 26 26 161 202 105 30 37 101
Top Near-Age Comps: John Smiley, Moose Haas
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Joel Guzman 3b 23 .221 .261 .346 103 353 26 78 12 1 10 41 18 90 4 1
You gotta feel for a guy that peaked at 19. Is it just me or has Guzman put on like 75 pounds in the last 3 years? Do the Dodgers and Devil Rays serve tubs of lard in their minor league clubhouse spreads?
Kazmir, Yankee - 16-6, 3.44
Kazmire, Indian - 15-7, 3.46
Kazmir, Angel - 15-7, 3.44
Kazmir, Cub - 15-7, 3.10
Kazmir, Phillie - 15-7, 3.36
Kazmir, Diamondback - 14-8, 3.53
Kazmir, Rockie - 14-8, 3.53
I believe someone at THT looked at that (DSG?), and there really didn't seem to be any reason to think Kazmir would become more economical if he stopped striking guys out. Heck, with the truly atrocious Rays defense, he's better off striking people out. What's hurting him are the walks. He needs to walk fewer people, not cut down on strikeouts.
What's the story with Ruggiano? Is he limited to just corner OF spots? With Young, Crawford and Upton occupying the outfield -- as GMoney touched on -- they sure seem to have a lot of outfielders with very little room. Knowing nothing about Ruggiano other than the line posted above, he's a guy that a lot of teams should be willing to give up a decent player for (be it a B prospect or a solid major league reliever).
Gosh damn do I wish the White Sox had this 'problem' of having too many good position players fighting for not enough spots.
Seven seems like a lot for a 24 year old.
Ever bounce something off plexiglass? It doesn't go all the way back to where it started!
Anyway, ZiPS already thought Pena was a good player, 256/355/474 going into 2007.
They are young high draft picks who are clearly better than their brothers.
I can see each having 95 RBIs.
(Yes, I read the disclaimer.)
Kazmir, Yankee - 16-6, 3.44
Kazmire, Indian - 15-7, 3.46
Kazmir, Angel - 15-7, 3.44
Kazmir, Cub - 15-7, 3.10
Kazmir, Phillie - 15-7, 3.36
Kazmir, Diamondback - 14-8, 3.53
Kazmir, Rockie - 14-8, 3.53
Thank you for the team you did not include here.
Heh.
Actually, I didn't think about the cruelty of posting a Mets projection! I just decided to pick the playoff teams as a proxy to avoid a possible flame war in which I'm forced to name exactly what I consider a good team.
Are you saying the Mets aren't a playoff team?
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