BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

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1. He's Bought a Bat Like Prince Fielder Posted: October 06, 2007 at 08:05 PM (#2564254)

[25 names]
Joel Guzman 3b 23 .221 .261 .346 103 353 26 78 12 1 10 41 18 90 4 1

You gotta feel for a guy that peaked at 19. Is it just me or has Guzman put on like 75 pounds in the last 3 years? Do the Dodgers and Devil Rays serve tubs of lard in their minor league clubhouse spreads?

2. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: October 06, 2007 at 08:11 PM (#2564261)

Seems like a perfect team to deal away a hitter or 2 or 3 for a couple decent pitchers. Most teams don't like to deal pitching away but maybe the DRays could pry some away. Add 1 or 2 decent starters and a dominate bullpen guy or 2 and this team would be .500 or close I think.

3. Jim Wisinski

Posted: October 06, 2007 at 08:12 PM (#2564263)

Shields should beat that projection easily. I doubt the accuracy of Ruggiano's, I just don't think he can hit well enough to be a starting outfielder like that suggests.

4. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:44 PM (#2565213)

If you ran the same projection for Kazmir on a good team, what would his W/L record be? This is his arb year, and I know the Rays are interested in signing him to a contract to get him into his free agency years. If it doesn't get done, he's decided to forego the money for freedom.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 07, 2007 at 01:58 PM (#2565228)

Kazmir, Red Sock - 15-7, 3.38
Kazmir, Yankee - 16-6, 3.44
Kazmire, Indian - 15-7, 3.46
Kazmir, Angel - 15-7, 3.44
Kazmir, Cub - 15-7, 3.10
Kazmir, Phillie - 15-7, 3.36
Kazmir, Diamondback - 14-8, 3.53
Kazmir, Rockie - 14-8, 3.53

6. More Indecisive than Lonnie Smith on 2nd... Posted: October 07, 2007 at 02:23 PM (#2565263)

Thanks for running that, Dan, and great question, p8p. .30 on ERA just from playing on a better defensive team in the same division (Red Sox)--wow. Though that might have as much to do with NOT playing the Sox 1-3 times/year... I wonder if he might go deeper in games, being able to attack more rather than feeling he has to strike guys out?

7. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 07, 2007 at 08:38 PM (#2565783)

I wonder if he might go deeper in games, being able to attack more rather than feeling he has to strike guys out?

I believe someone at THT looked at that (DSG?), and there really didn't seem to be any reason to think Kazmir would become more economical if he stopped striking guys out. Heck, with the truly atrocious Rays defense, he's better off striking people out. What's hurting him are the walks. He needs to walk fewer people, not cut down on strikeouts.

8. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: October 07, 2007 at 08:54 PM (#2565836)

I doubt the accuracy of Ruggiano's, I just don't think he can hit well enough to be a starting outfielder like that suggests.

What's the story with Ruggiano? Is he limited to just corner OF spots? With Young, Crawford and Upton occupying the outfield -- as GMoney touched on -- they sure seem to have a lot of outfielders with very little room. Knowing nothing about Ruggiano other than the line posted above, he's a guy that a lot of teams should be willing to give up a decent player for (be it a B prospect or a solid major league reliever).

Gosh damn do I wish the White Sox had this 'problem' of having too many good position players fighting for not enough spots.

9. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: October 07, 2007 at 09:30 PM (#2565902)

ZIPS really ignores the plexiglass priciple on Pena.

10. DCW3 Posted: October 07, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2565935)

I don't know--that projection is closer to his overall career OPS than it is to his 2007 numbers.

11. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:11 PM (#2566004)

Thanks, Dan. I've thought playing for the Rays has been costing him 2-3 wins a year. And I wasn't considering the defense or hitting, but the bullpen. I can't remember what I did with it, but I looked up how many games in his career he got a ND when leaving the game with a lead, and I think it was seven.

Seven seems like a lot for a 24 year old.

12. Bull Pain Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:19 PM (#2566025)

Ruggiano isn't really CF material, although I think he could handle the position if absolutely necessary. He misplayed a few balls in RF though. Possibly a vision issue. He had a great season with the bat in Durham, but he swings and misses an awful lot and the short LF wall in Durham agreed with him. I doubt he's a big league starter, but he could be a decent backup guy and maybe he turns into a Matt Diaz.

13. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 07, 2007 at 10:19 PM (#2566026)

ZIPS really ignores the plexiglass priciple on Pena.

Ever bounce something off plexiglass? It doesn't go all the way back to where it started!

Anyway, ZiPS already thought Pena was a good player, 256/355/474 going into 2007.

14. FBI Posted: October 09, 2007 at 06:04 PM (#2570078)

I expect B.J. Upton, Delmon Young to be better than these projections.
They are young high draft picks who are clearly better than their brothers.
I can see each having 95 RBIs.

15. tl; dr (Voxter)

Posted: October 11, 2007 at 02:04 AM (#2571444)

Wow, Carlos Pena comes alive. Again.

16. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: October 11, 2007 at 03:34 AM (#2571485)

Rocco Baldelli, 79 games. I'll take the under.

(Yes, I read the disclaimer.)

17. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: October 11, 2007 at 03:45 AM (#2571489)

I know Velandia had a great September, but ZIPS seems to be giving him a lot of love for the 320/454/520 he hit this year in 58 PA's. He's 32 and has hit 188/275/271 in 254 career PA'sand the last time he played was 2003.

18. HowardMegdal

Posted: October 11, 2007 at 03:58 AM (#2571493)

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 11, 2007 at 04:33 AM (#2571504)

Thank you for the team you did not include here.

Heh.

Actually, I didn't think about the cruelty of posting a Mets projection! I just decided to pick the playoff teams as a proxy to avoid a possible flame war in which I'm forced to name exactly what I consider a good team.

20. bibigon Posted: October 11, 2007 at 06:00 AM (#2571523)

Actually, I didn't think about the cruelty of posting a Mets projection! I just decided to pick the playoff teams as a proxy to avoid a possible flame war in which I'm forced to name exactly what I consider a good team.

Are you saying the Mets aren't a playoff team?

21. kwarren Posted: October 15, 2007 at 09:32 PM (#2577551)

Well not without Pedro and Kazmir.

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