|
|
|
|
Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays
ZiPS sees Toronto's 2008 turning out fairly similar to 2007, with a really good, deep, pitching staff and defense and a rather disappointing lineup. I don't post the defensive ratings for the upcoming DMB disk, but the defense projections quite well with VG ratings for McDonald, Wells, and Rios, and Aaron Hill being promoted to EX as I have his LZR (zone rating to runs as done by Dial with linear weights) as +15 runs after being +19 in 2006. Reed Johnson keeps his EX in LF by being on pace for a +13, but he's on the border. I've projectioned optimistic and pessimistic for Wells and Burnett, Wells because he was disappointing and is always hard to project, and Burnett, well, because J.P. whined publicly about Burnett's contract and Burnett responded by ending up with a 124 ERA+, just a few points behind 10th place Escobar (127).
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Alexis Rios rf 27 .293 .356 .488 150 563 94 165 34 5 22 85 47 98 6 5
AVERAGE 1B/DH ---------- 1b ---- .279 .355 .489 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .277 .347 .469 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .277 .344 .471 ------------------------------------------
Troy Glaus 3b 31 .247 .350 .469 134 469 75 116 23 0 27 82 73 131 1 3
Frank Thomas dh 40 .248 .352 .456 131 447 56 111 18 0 25 85 71 88 0 2
AVERAGE 3B --------------------- .274 .343 .445 ------------------------------------------
Lyle Overbay* 1b 31 .264 .343 .431 132 469 61 124 34 1 14 62 55 87 1 1
Vernon Wells cf 29 .268 .330 .454 152 601 85 161 34 3 24 95 51 95 5 2
Adam Lind* lf 24 .276 .326 .457 129 438 40 121 26 1 17 67 31 100 2 1
Matt Stairs* 1b 40 .253 .336 .434 113 332 43 84 21 0 13 49 39 72 1 0
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .272 .335 .433 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .276 .336 .422 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .274 .329 .404 ------------------------------------------
Reed Johnson lf 31 .272 .341 .400 99 320 47 87 19 2 6 32 20 63 3 4
Gregg Zaun# c 37 .246 .340 .381 91 281 35 69 17 0 7 39 40 43 1 1
AVERAGE C -------------- c ---- .260 .320 .412 ------------------------------------------
Aaron Hill 2b 25 .271 .324 .391 156 573 74 155 35 2 10 62 42 81 2 0
Chip Cannon* 1b 26 .239 .304 .434 127 440 47 105 24 1 20 61 38 168 1 1
Mike Vento rf 30 .259 .315 .394 91 317 35 82 19 0 8 44 23 73 0 1
Rob Cosby 3b 27 .261 .298 .422 116 429 36 112 28 1 13 58 19 91 1 1
Kevin Barker* 1b 32 .232 .312 .381 125 436 42 101 24 1 13 59 49 131 1 1
John-Ford Griffin* lf 28 .226 .291 .416 110 389 39 88 21 1 17 61 35 128 1 1
Curtis Thigpen c 25 .243 .316 .363 105 342 39 83 21 1 6 34 34 58 2 1
Ryan Roberts 2b 27 .232 .309 .373 111 375 41 87 18 1 11 43 39 106 2 2
Dustin Majewski* cf 26 .221 .309 .375 121 421 47 93 27 1 12 48 52 112 2 3
Russ Adams* 2b 27 .246 .312 .357 127 423 52 104 22 2 7 48 38 63 4 1
Robinzon Diaz c 24 .273 .298 .361 101 377 37 103 19 1 4 32 12 32 3 1
Hector Luna ss 26 .247 .302 .367 111 360 42 89 21 2 6 37 25 86 5 4
Joe Inglett* 2b 30 .254 .311 .354 91 311 36 79 14 4 3 31 23 55 6 5
John Hattig# 3b 28 .239 .295 .362 98 326 27 78 20 1 6 37 25 107 0 1
Ryan Patterson rf 25 .240 .275 .393 115 438 38 105 23 1 14 53 21 108 2 2
Howie Clark* 3b 34 .233 .310 .306 64 193 20 45 8 0 2 15 20 20 0 0
Ray Olmedo# ss 27 .244 .296 .311 120 360 33 88 16 1 2 23 26 73 7 3
John McDonald ss 33 .244 .289 .313 95 246 26 60 12 1 1 22 11 37 3 0
Sal Fasano c 36 .213 .270 .369 60 160 13 34 7 0 6 16 5 50 0 1
Chad Mottola rf 36 .219 .268 .357 94 342 33 75 18 1 9 37 20 89 1 1
Wayne Lydon cf 27 .225 .284 .319 119 445 58 100 16 4 6 34 35 110 15 8
Sergio Santos ss 24 .213 .262 .324 120 442 36 94 23 1 8 40 27 101 1 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight - Vernon Wells
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .290 .357 .513 162 641 105 186 40 5 31 125 60 91 8 1
Mean .268 .330 .454 152 601 85 161 34 3 24 95 51 95 5 2
Pessimistic (15%) .239 .295 .394 108 426 52 102 22 1 14 54 32 75 2 2
Top Near-Age Comps: Jimmy Piersall, Mike Devereaux
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
B.J. Ryan* 32 2.08 4 1 72 0 78.0 55 18 5 25 102
Casey Janssen 26 3.04 5 3 73 0 80.0 74 27 6 15 58
Jeremy Accardo 26 3.16 6 3 70 0 77.0 69 27 5 22 64
Jason Frasor 30 3.42 5 2 61 0 71.0 61 27 6 24 69
Scott Downs* 32 3.47 4 3 70 0 72.2 66 28 8 23 66
Roy Halladay 31 3.49 14 8 30 30 214.0 211 83 18 40 136
A.J. Burnett 31 3.79 12 8 27 27 178.0 164 75 20 61 158
Dustin McGowan 26 3.97 10 8 32 25 161.0 152 71 16 54 131
Brian Tallet* 30 4.01 3 2 58 0 74.0 68 33 7 33 57
Lee Gronkiewicz 29 4.07 4 3 55 1 73.0 74 33 11 15 57
Scott Sauerbeck* 36 4.11 2 1 49 0 46.0 45 21 3 20 33
LEAGUE AVFERAGE RELIEVER ----- 4.20 -----------------------------------------------
Jordan de Jong 29 4.24 4 4 47 0 85.0 86 40 9 26 62
Matt Roney 28 4.31 5 4 45 0 71.0 73 34 9 19 55
Brian Wolfe 27 4.32 5 4 46 2 77.0 81 37 10 19 42
Jesse Litsch 23 4.43 13 12 32 31 187.0 208 92 24 36 92
Brandon League 25 4.60 4 4 50 4 92.0 100 47 11 29 56
Ryan Houston 28 4.63 2 3 53 0 72.0 72 37 10 28 57
Shaun Marcum 26 4.67 8 9 38 25 162.0 169 84 29 43 121
Jesse Carlson* 27 4.68 5 6 63 0 77.0 83 40 10 21 55
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.73 -----------------------------------------------
Gustavo Chacin* 27 4.78 8 10 26 26 143.0 160 76 16 56 76
Jean Machi 26 4.82 5 5 49 4 97.0 100 52 12 42 67
Beau Kemp 27 4.85 4 5 49 0 78.0 94 42 6 30 37
Davis Romero* 25 4.86 10 11 39 18 152.0 167 82 25 41 94
Jamie Vermilyea 26 4.86 5 6 35 12 111.0 124 60 15 30 57
Joe Kennedy* 29 4.95 7 8 38 18 129.0 138 71 16 52 81
Josh Towers 31 4.96 9 12 30 26 167.0 192 92 28 29 98
Chad Blackwell 25 4.98 4 5 37 0 65.0 69 36 9 25 42
Blaine Neal 30 5.68 4 6 46 0 57.0 65 36 11 20 37
David Purcey* 26 5.70 6 10 26 26 139.0 149 88 22 78 104
Ismael Ramirez 27 5.75 5 10 25 22 130.0 155 83 26 34 69
Brandon Magee 24 5.75 6 10 29 28 155.0 192 99 25 45 51
Kyle Yates 25 5.76 7 12 32 28 172.0 207 110 33 44 94
Josh Banks 25 5.82 8 16 31 31 187.0 229 121 45 22 100
Ty Taubenheim 25 5.83 6 12 31 27 156.0 186 101 30 46 83
Ricky Romero* 23 5.83 4 7 23 23 122.0 143 79 22 50 67
Tracy Thorpe 27 6.00 3 5 57 0 66.0 74 44 13 32 47
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - A.J. Burnett
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.91 17 6 31 31 207 171 67 17 62 200
Mean 3.79 12 8 27 27 178 164 75 20 61 158
Pessimistic (15%) 4.62 8 9 23 23 144 145 74 20 58 117
Top Near-Age Comps: Andy Messersmith, Juan Guzman
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 02, 2007 at 02:59 PM | 40 comment(s)
Related News: Toronto, ZIPS
|
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
if the difference is only related to their respective homerun rates, that's fine, and i'll accept it, but i get a feeling that there is something more that is going to cause problems for marcum next year. i like his arm a lot, and i think he can be a very good starter until at least the next decade, but after watching him this september, i get the feeling that he's going to run into overuse problems next year, finding himself on and off the DL as the blue jays take another step forward towards the playoffs.
And he'd be the first left handed shortstop in the majors as well!
So, an additional couple of questions would be
1) What part of the secret sauce would explain this kind of difference in projections?
2) Why would Hill's most recent season have such a small effect on his projection for 2008?
BTW These aren't criticisms. I'm honestly curious about how the process works. It's the only way I can make any kind of meaningful judgement concerning what any of these numbers mean.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_toronto_blue_jays/
Remember that bet about Towers being a 4.70 ERA? Ha, well it was sort of close.
Also, I somehow thought Glaus was...well, a lot more than 0 years older than Lyle Overbay. Overbay's career began really late.
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Injury is another one of them. Injuries are too complex for us to really tackle with a computer like this. Thankfully, as surgery gets better, the injuries should become less of less an issue. We're already reaching the point at which Tommy John surgery isn't dragging down pitchers once they get back.
I'm so ungrateful. Thanks a frillion.
Red-headed stepchildren disagree.
Jesse Litsch was fairly impressive this year, but I still don't get how that guy is projected to be above average. He doesn't seem (at least to me) to have all that impressive a repertoire. Maybe the opposition is hypnotized by his freckles and red hair.
Jays have a good defense. I have Litsch with a 5.03 if he played for the Devil Rays.
That's interesting. Regarding the minor league track record, Hill now has three full seasons in the majors. When does minor league performance cease to be relevant?
How soon will Travis Snider be ready?
Does he have a twin?
He's getting there fairly soon.
Great Work!
Any idea when all 30 will be posted?
The focus on Aaron Hlll is kind of sad really. He's an offensively mediocre, defensively better than average, second baseman. Not much to get excited about.
But he is all that JP Ricciardi got out of four successive first rounds of drafting, from 2002 when he chose Russ Adams over Kazmir, Hamel, McCann, Francouer etc, to 2005 when he wasted a number 6 pick on Ricky Romero over Tulowitski or Maybin. JP's greatly diminished fanbase in Toronto tries to pretend that Aaron Hill comps to Jeff Kent or Paul Molitor, and that Adam LInd, Shaun Marcum and Casey Janssen are good value for 4 years of draft.
By contrast, Aaron Hill replaced Orlando Hudson who was taken in the 43rd round by Ash and Wilken.
JP's greatly diminished fanbase in Toronto tries to pretend that Aaron Hill comps to Jeff Kent or Paul Molitor, and that Adam LInd, Shaun Marcum and Casey Janssen are good value for 4 years of draft.
You don't have to be a JP fan to think he's done fairly well out of the draft (I'm not). It's fashionable in Toronto now to pretend it's been a disaster, but it's not the case - the Jays have a very young, deep and talented pitching staff.
But your first post wasn't. Oh well.
Sparky had a terrible year, but he isn't a bad player. Great corner OF defense and a solid 1/2 hitter if he isn't hurt, good all-around skills (bunting, baserunning, that stuff) plus a great motivator and (anecdotally, in my opinion) a big-game player. He's much less than a star, not even an average regular, but he's not a bad player - of course, he's hurt all the damn time because of the way he plays, and his manager has to be able to keep him out of the lineup when he's not 100%.
So you need to have an alternative, which is why Lind is a great complement - he gives them a LH hitter who can take the big share of the platoon, and he's young enough that he is likelier to stay healthy. So you get all four types of platoon working together at once - a lefty/righty platoon, an offense/defense platoon, a young player/veteran platoon, and an "injured/healthy" platoon (as I call them).
He had a really slow start before that happened though...although he was finally picking it up in the 2-3 weeks before the injury.
When he came back he just never hit
I guess the Jays don't really have any options other than "hope it was all the hand"
He has 1,660 plate appearances with a career OPS of .756 by age 25, with a .792 OPS in 07.
Yet ZIPS says .715 for 08. Wow.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main