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if the difference is only related to their respective homerun rates, that's fine, and i'll accept it, but i get a feeling that there is something more that is going to cause problems for marcum next year. i like his arm a lot, and i think he can be a very good starter until at least the next decade, but after watching him this september, i get the feeling that he's going to run into overuse problems next year, finding himself on and off the DL as the blue jays take another step forward towards the playoffs.
And he'd be the first left handed shortstop in the majors as well!
So, an additional couple of questions would be
1) What part of the secret sauce would explain this kind of difference in projections?
2) Why would Hill's most recent season have such a small effect on his projection for 2008?
BTW These aren't criticisms. I'm honestly curious about how the process works. It's the only way I can make any kind of meaningful judgement concerning what any of these numbers mean.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_toronto_blue_jays/
Remember that bet about Towers being a 4.70 ERA? Ha, well it was sort of close.
Also, I somehow thought Glaus was...well, a lot more than 0 years older than Lyle Overbay. Overbay's career began really late.
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Injury is another one of them. Injuries are too complex for us to really tackle with a computer like this. Thankfully, as surgery gets better, the injuries should become less of less an issue. We're already reaching the point at which Tommy John surgery isn't dragging down pitchers once they get back.
I'm so ungrateful. Thanks a frillion.
Red-headed stepchildren disagree.
Jesse Litsch was fairly impressive this year, but I still don't get how that guy is projected to be above average. He doesn't seem (at least to me) to have all that impressive a repertoire. Maybe the opposition is hypnotized by his freckles and red hair.
Jays have a good defense. I have Litsch with a 5.03 if he played for the Devil Rays.
That's interesting. Regarding the minor league track record, Hill now has three full seasons in the majors. When does minor league performance cease to be relevant?
How soon will Travis Snider be ready?
Does he have a twin?
He's getting there fairly soon.
Great Work!
Any idea when all 30 will be posted?
The focus on Aaron Hlll is kind of sad really. He's an offensively mediocre, defensively better than average, second baseman. Not much to get excited about.
But he is all that JP Ricciardi got out of four successive first rounds of drafting, from 2002 when he chose Russ Adams over Kazmir, Hamel, McCann, Francouer etc, to 2005 when he wasted a number 6 pick on Ricky Romero over Tulowitski or Maybin. JP's greatly diminished fanbase in Toronto tries to pretend that Aaron Hill comps to Jeff Kent or Paul Molitor, and that Adam LInd, Shaun Marcum and Casey Janssen are good value for 4 years of draft.
By contrast, Aaron Hill replaced Orlando Hudson who was taken in the 43rd round by Ash and Wilken.
JP's greatly diminished fanbase in Toronto tries to pretend that Aaron Hill comps to Jeff Kent or Paul Molitor, and that Adam LInd, Shaun Marcum and Casey Janssen are good value for 4 years of draft.
You don't have to be a JP fan to think he's done fairly well out of the draft (I'm not). It's fashionable in Toronto now to pretend it's been a disaster, but it's not the case - the Jays have a very young, deep and talented pitching staff.
But your first post wasn't. Oh well.
Sparky had a terrible year, but he isn't a bad player. Great corner OF defense and a solid 1/2 hitter if he isn't hurt, good all-around skills (bunting, baserunning, that stuff) plus a great motivator and (anecdotally, in my opinion) a big-game player. He's much less than a star, not even an average regular, but he's not a bad player - of course, he's hurt all the damn time because of the way he plays, and his manager has to be able to keep him out of the lineup when he's not 100%.
So you need to have an alternative, which is why Lind is a great complement - he gives them a LH hitter who can take the big share of the platoon, and he's young enough that he is likelier to stay healthy. So you get all four types of platoon working together at once - a lefty/righty platoon, an offense/defense platoon, a young player/veteran platoon, and an "injured/healthy" platoon (as I call them).
He had a really slow start before that happened though...although he was finally picking it up in the 2-3 weeks before the injury.
When he came back he just never hit
I guess the Jays don't really have any options other than "hope it was all the hand"
He has 1,660 plate appearances with a career OPS of .756 by age 25, with a .792 OPS in 07.
Yet ZIPS says .715 for 08. Wow.
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