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you might want to revise your rating of albaladejo, though. i think he's a lock for a big 2008 in the nats bullpen.
I really can't wait to see how the new Nationals stadium plays.
The regular season is really over, isn't it?
No, not until tomorrow night.
I hope Nick Johnson can just stay healthy next year. He deserves a break.
I like getting them out as early as possible for a few reasons - I like having the initial projections done before the flood of free agent signings results in me spending more time writing entries and for fans of 22 teams, there isn't much to talk about regarding their team until the free agent period starts.
Ahh... it's not a real off-season until there's a decent projection for a player that David Littlefield gave away for nothing.
Near as I can tell, the dimensions are pretty close to Jacobs Field, just without the giant wall.
Nobody knows how the wind will play, of course.
I like getting them out as early as possible for a few reasons - I like having the initial projections done before the flood of free agent signings results in me spending more time writing entries and for fans of 22 teams, there isn't much to talk about regarding their team until the free agent period starts.
Much appreciated, Dan. Usually I have to start my fantasy baseball off-season without a full set of predictions out there.
Near as I can tell, the dimensions are pretty close to Jacobs Field, just without the giant wall.
Nobody knows how the wind will play, of course.
We should know how the air will play since it's the same air as in the old park. How does the air in DC rate? More like the thick air in San Diego or the thin air in Texas?
Usually I have to start my fantasy baseball off-season without a full set of predictions out there.
I'm in the same boat, they are a great resource.
There are other factors to consider here. They are moving from an enclosed stadium to...something else. The Reds moved from Riverfront and GABP is constructed in a way that it funnels wind toward the fences.
This pisses me off to no end. ;) J/K
A few years ago, Szym said something to the effect that not reading the disclaimer under the projections amounted to a legal waiver of any and all rights to not getting murdered by Szym. I'm not quite sure that would stand up to legal scrutiny, but he seemed to think so.
As someone else said, it's the wind patterns that will change. RFK was strange in that there was no lower bowl seating in the outfield. Right behind the wall was the upper deck, and there were plenty of high fly balls that seemed to get knocked down by a wind that swooped in and down the face of the seats. As far as how 'thick' the air is, if there's a more humid place than DC, I don't want to see it.
Two of the top three projected players are first baseman. Can/should/will Dmitri play LF, and will/should the Nats trade Johnson or Dmitri?
There's been a rumor that the Nats would play Dmitri in the outfield. Given how he's swelled up to about 400 pounds and that they seem happy with Kearns and Pena, I'm not sure there's a place for him. I think the Nats would be happy to trade either him or NJ, but, really, is there much of a market for either of them given their weight/injuries, etc?
Does Brian Schneider's defense continue to rate well? Because if he does, he should be a very valuable trade commidity.
He's a tremendous defensive catcher, with a strong accurate arm. And his pitch-calling abilities have taken on mythic proportions this year since the team's ERA is under the 10.60 that most everyone expected. If someone wanted him -- he's under contract for the next two years at ~$9 million -- I think the Nats would definitely listen, especially with the emergence of Flores.
RC/27. I'm a little worried about adding it because the preformatted text will start to stretch the page with just a few more characters.
I'll take the under.
are there talks about moving/benching/trading wmp? if not, i'm not sure what the nats are gonna do with all these 1b/corner of types...
Humid air is lighter than dry air.* That effect is small, of course. Hot air is lighter than cool air, which makes more difference. That's why the West Coast ballparks have "heavy" air - it's because the midsummer temperatures are lower. And altitude makes a huge difference - D.C. is very near sea level, but so are Bos, NY, Phi, Bal, Fla, TB, Hou.
However, greater humidity would lead to greater water absorption into balls, making heavier balls. Oh, and there's no way DC's humidity, day in and day out, averaged over the entire summer, could match Miami's. (I mean "absolute" humidity, which is the amount of water in the air. This is most often expressed - nonlinearly - as dew point.)
*Avogadro's principle. Equal number of molecules per unit volume for equal temperature and pressure. Air is mostly nitrogen (molecular weight 28) and oxygen (32) - call it average molecular weight of about 29. Water vapor has weight 18.
how did I survive the offseason before I found BTF?
Recreational cannibalism?
Thank god AZ's projections will come last so I'd have less offseason time to be depressed
However, greater humidity would lead to greater water absorption into balls, making heavier balls. Oh, and there's no way DC's humidity, day in and day out, averaged over the entire summer, could match Miami's. (I mean "absolute" humidity, which is the amount of water in the air. This is most often expressed - nonlinearly - as dew point.)
I don't think that the heaviness of the balls has that much of an impact, but rather, the elasticity/bulk modulus of the ball is much different in a humid environment. In other words, the ball is less bouncy.
I could be wrong, though.
I think for 3 years in a row, in response to people who are fans of end-alphabet teams disappointed that they have to wait, I promised to do the next year in reverse. I finally remembered that this time. Next year, I'll go by team mascot name (Angels->Yankees). I should be done before FA time regardless.
the cold has an effect on this as well.. significant shrinkage.
I would expect something a bit closer to his '07 numbers (.329 / .382 / .468).
If you mean .264 .311 .350 instead of .254 .301 .340 closer, maybe. :) If you mean "close to those numbers", I'd be very tempted to put up a big wager that he doesn't.
He had a great 3/4 of a season in 2001 and a great 1/3 of a season last year. He has been "teh suck" or close to it in the other 6 seasons. Did you see some fundamental change in approach last year that makes you think that 2007 was anything other than a fluke?
Yes, I did. Guzman's walk rate was up a bit, and his K's were way down. That suggests to me that he's seeing the ball better.
Nonetheless, the small foul ground and short LCF gap certainly mean an improved hitting environment for Right Handed Batters compared to RFK.
Dan....when you did these projections, what kind of park factors did you use? Did you base these on RFK's 94-95 Park Factors, or a neutral environment? Should we be giving a mental "bump" to the hitters here?
Sorry.
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