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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, September 30, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Nick Johnson* 1b 29 .283 .422 .492 139 474 87 134 40 1 19 69 105 87 5 4
Ryan Zimmerman 3b 23 .282 .348 .501 162 649 100 183 47 4 29 106 65 117 4 4
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .279 .357 .472 ------------------------------------------
Dmitri Young# 1b 34 .287 .352 .459 112 390 50 112 26 1 13 56 38 74 0 1
Ryan Church* cf 29 .271 .348 .473 132 410 53 111 30 1 17 61 46 100 3 4
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .277 .349 .453 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .277 .346 .455 ------------------------------------------
Wily Mo Pena rf 26 .269 .332 .476 99 290 40 78 13 1 15 40 25 92 1 2
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .274 .343 .445 ------------------------------------------
Austin Kearns rf 28 .262 .351 .425 143 515 77 135 34 1 16 64 66 111 3 5
Josh Whitesell* 1b 26 .249 .345 .417 125 381 42 95 20 1 14 48 52 125 2 3
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .272 .336 .422 ------------------------------------------
Michael Restovich lf 29 .256 .319 .448 107 348 25 89 20 1 15 46 30 97 1 1
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .276 .331 .411 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .274 .329 .404 ------------------------------------------
Felipe Lopez# ss 28 .264 .344 .383 150 592 82 156 27 4 12 55 64 109 19 5
Ronnie Belliard 2b 33 .270 .329 .405 133 477 57 129 28 0 12 55 37 89 0 1
Larry Broadway* 1b 27 .245 .316 .420 107 355 34 87 21 1 13 49 37 86 1 0
Abraham Nunez# rf 31 .255 .327 .417 102 345 38 88 18 1 12 50 35 82 3 4
Ryan Langerhans* cf 28 .232 .334 .388 123 276 43 64 15 2 8 29 40 79 0 2
AVERAGE C -------------- c ---- .260 .321 .400 ------------------------------------------
D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 30 .245 .346 .350 107 294 34 72 16 0 5 25 44 48 4 3
Alex Escobar cf 29 .240 .323 .383 52 167 19 40 10 1 4 19 18 41 1 1
Kory Casto* lf 26 .235 .317 .388 130 443 52 104 25 2 13 54 51 108 3 3
Nook Logan# cf 28 .264 .332 .351 103 288 40 76 16 3 1 19 20 65 7 2
Jesus Flores c 23 .243 .295 .412 110 337 35 82 21 0 12 42 18 103 1 1
Robert Fick* 1b 34 .253 .333 .337 88 178 23 45 7 1 2 17 21 32 1 1
Tony Batista 1b 34 .243 .307 .382 78 173 17 42 9 0 5 24 15 27 1 1
Bernie Castro# 2b 28 .270 .320 .347 121 429 61 116 19 4 2 31 30 56 20 6
Brian Schneider* c 31 .244 .321 .329 113 365 31 89 16 0 5 41 41 56 1 1
Justin Maxwell cf 24 .229 .290 .386 108 363 41 83 16 1 13 44 27 117 18 6
Tyrell Godwin* lf 28 .242 .302 .364 116 376 47 91 19 3 7 34 30 69 7 5
Juan Brito c 28 .242 .290 .367 68 215 15 52 12 0 5 24 14 47 0 0
Brandon Watson* cf 26 .276 .315 .341 120 434 54 120 14 4 2 25 22 52 13 10
Cristian Guzman# ss 30 .254 .301 .340 100 335 36 85 13 5 2 22 22 48 4 3
Chris Marrero lf 19 .223 .276 .373 117 413 37 92 16 2 14 52 30 109 0 3
Brent Abernathy 3b 30 .244 .305 .318 98 324 36 79 12 0 4 27 28 36 7 5
Frank Diaz rf 24 .233 .266 .356 113 404 42 94 21 1 9 38 16 64 4 3
Tony Blanco lf 26 .218 .260 .354 66 206 15 45 10 0 6 26 9 57 2 1
Javi Herrera c 26 .214 .288 .302 85 262 23 56 14 0 3 22 22 47 2 1
Manny Alexander ss 37 .233 .278 .313 89 300 38 70 13 1 3 24 18 51 6 3
Melvin Dorta ss 26 .234 .277 .315 117 372 43 87 16 1 4 27 22 39 14 10
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Johnson* Av
Zimmerman Vg Pr
Young# Pr Pr
Church* Vg Pr Av
Pena Pr Pr Pr
Kearns Fr Vg
Whitesell* Av
Restovich Fr Av Fr
Lopez# Av Fr Pr
Belliard Av Av Fr
Broadway* Av
Nunez# Vg Pr Vg
Langerhans* Vg Av Av
Jimenez# Av Av Fr
Escobar Av Fr Vg
Casto* Av Fr Fr Fr
Logan# Av
Flores Av
Fick* Pr Fr Fr Fr
Batista Av Fr
Castro# Vg Av
Schneider* Av
Maxwell Vg Av Vg
Godwin* Av Fr Av
Brito Vg
Watson* Vg Av Vg
Guzman# Fr
Marrero Fr Fr
Abernathy Av Av Fr Av Av
Diaz Fr Fr Fr
Blanco Av Av
Herrera Av
Alexander Av Av
Dorta Fr Av Fr Av
Player Spotlight - Ryan Zimmerman
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .310 .380 .581 162 649 119 201 52 5 38 136 72 103 6 4
Mean .282 .348 .501 162 649 100 183 47 4 29 106 65 117 4 4
Pessimistic (15%) .263 .321 .447 152 609 81 160 39 2 23 81 52 123 2 5
Top Near-Age Comps: Ken Keltner, Andy Carey
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Chad Cordero 26 3.62 5 3 77 0 77.0 73 31 12 25 69
Luis Ayala 30 3.69 6 3 61 1 61.0 65 25 8 16 38
Chris Schroder 29 3.73 5 3 61 0 82.0 73 34 8 34 76
Jon Rauch 29 3.94 6 4 76 0 80.0 76 35 10 25 65
Shawn Hill 27 3.95 6 6 20 20 108.0 110 47 9 28 66
Saul Rivera 30 3.98 5 3 67 0 86.0 83 38 5 40 58
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.07 -----------------------------------------------
Hector Carrasco 38 4.28 4 4 55 3 80.0 75 38 10 34 61
Jesus Colome 30 4.35 3 3 54 0 60.0 61 29 7 26 40
Micah Bowie* 33 4.43 4 3 37 7 67.0 66 33 8 32 49
John Patterson 30 4.47 6 5 22 22 129.0 125 64 18 55 110
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.58 ------------------------------------------------
Chris Booker 31 4.71 4 5 62 0 65.0 58 34 10 37 71
Ross Detwiler* 22 4.75 3 3 9 6 36.0 40 19 3 12 17
Brandon Claussen* 29 4.76 6 9 22 22 123.0 130 65 19 45 84
Matt Chico* 25 4.78 8 10 32 32 179.0 191 95 29 67 118
Jason Bergmann 26 4.79 5 7 37 17 124.0 126 66 20 47 96
Billy Traber* 28 4.87 7 9 35 19 133.0 148 72 17 39 71
Ryan Wagner 25 4.89 3 4 56 0 70.0 74 38 8 29 42
Winston Abreu 31 4.99 3 4 60 0 74.0 75 41 14 28 67
Garrett Mock 25 4.99 6 10 26 26 157.0 173 87 23 52 112
Jonathan Albaladejo 25 5.04 4 6 42 2 75.0 79 42 15 25 56
Justin Jones* 23 5.11 7 12 23 22 125.0 145 71 14 43 65
Arnie Munoz* 26 5.17 5 8 51 9 101.0 105 58 16 48 72
Jim Magrane 29 5.21 7 13 32 23 159.0 186 92 21 50 75
Tim Redding 30 5.22 8 12 28 27 157.0 176 91 24 62 80
Brett Campbell 26 5.23 3 6 57 0 74.0 78 43 10 33 55
Jason Simontacchi 34 5.23 5 8 22 13 86.0 99 50 15 24 45
Beltran Perez 26 5.26 8 9 32 19 130.0 148 76 21 46 67
Zechry Zinicola 23 5.29 2 3 46 0 63.0 68 37 6 33 34
Edward Valdez 28 5.30 4 7 37 15 124.0 143 73 18 46 70
John Lannan* 23 5.30 8 11 31 28 168.0 189 99 23 70 73
Daniel Foli 27 5.38 2 4 37 1 72.0 78 43 9 38 43
Mike Bacsik* 30 5.43 6 10 32 22 141.0 167 85 32 36 73
Josh Hall 27 5.44 5 9 27 19 129.0 145 78 22 50 69
Collin Balester 22 5.50 5 9 31 30 167.0 193 102 27 61 86
Levale Speigner 27 5.52 5 8 37 14 119.0 144 73 15 36 59
Enrique Gonzalez 25 5.55 7 12 31 30 175.0 200 108 25 65 87
Chris Michalak* 37 5.57 6 11 25 22 134.0 157 83 27 41 58
Joel Hanrahan 26 5.85 6 11 28 27 140.0 154 91 26 77 91
Craig Stammen 24 6.19 5 13 33 28 157.0 196 108 29 58 77
Michael O'Connor* 27 6.29 5 10 24 24 133.0 155 93 32 50 82
Mike Hinckley* 25 6.74 4 14 29 28 159.0 200 119 27 73 64
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Shawn Hill
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.98 9 4 23 23 130 119 43 6 27 86
Mean 3.92 6 6 20 20 108 110 47 9 28 66
Pessimistic (15%) 4.97 4 6 17 17 87 97 48 10 30 45
Top Near-Age Comps: Vern Ruhle, Garrett Stephenson
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Dan assumes the Washington Nationals are playing in a league-average park. This reduces
the confidence in individual National projections because of the uncertainty about how
the new park will play.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: September 30, 2007 at 07:51 PM | 49 comment(s)
Related News: Washington, ZIPS
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you might want to revise your rating of albaladejo, though. i think he's a lock for a big 2008 in the nats bullpen.
I really can't wait to see how the new Nationals stadium plays.
The regular season is really over, isn't it?
No, not until tomorrow night.
I hope Nick Johnson can just stay healthy next year. He deserves a break.
I like getting them out as early as possible for a few reasons - I like having the initial projections done before the flood of free agent signings results in me spending more time writing entries and for fans of 22 teams, there isn't much to talk about regarding their team until the free agent period starts.
Ahh... it's not a real off-season until there's a decent projection for a player that David Littlefield gave away for nothing.
Near as I can tell, the dimensions are pretty close to Jacobs Field, just without the giant wall.
Nobody knows how the wind will play, of course.
I like getting them out as early as possible for a few reasons - I like having the initial projections done before the flood of free agent signings results in me spending more time writing entries and for fans of 22 teams, there isn't much to talk about regarding their team until the free agent period starts.
Much appreciated, Dan. Usually I have to start my fantasy baseball off-season without a full set of predictions out there.
Near as I can tell, the dimensions are pretty close to Jacobs Field, just without the giant wall.
Nobody knows how the wind will play, of course.
We should know how the air will play since it's the same air as in the old park. How does the air in DC rate? More like the thick air in San Diego or the thin air in Texas?
Usually I have to start my fantasy baseball off-season without a full set of predictions out there.
I'm in the same boat, they are a great resource.
There are other factors to consider here. They are moving from an enclosed stadium to...something else. The Reds moved from Riverfront and GABP is constructed in a way that it funnels wind toward the fences.
This pisses me off to no end. ;) J/K
A few years ago, Szym said something to the effect that not reading the disclaimer under the projections amounted to a legal waiver of any and all rights to not getting murdered by Szym. I'm not quite sure that would stand up to legal scrutiny, but he seemed to think so.
As someone else said, it's the wind patterns that will change. RFK was strange in that there was no lower bowl seating in the outfield. Right behind the wall was the upper deck, and there were plenty of high fly balls that seemed to get knocked down by a wind that swooped in and down the face of the seats. As far as how 'thick' the air is, if there's a more humid place than DC, I don't want to see it.
Two of the top three projected players are first baseman. Can/should/will Dmitri play LF, and will/should the Nats trade Johnson or Dmitri?
There's been a rumor that the Nats would play Dmitri in the outfield. Given how he's swelled up to about 400 pounds and that they seem happy with Kearns and Pena, I'm not sure there's a place for him. I think the Nats would be happy to trade either him or NJ, but, really, is there much of a market for either of them given their weight/injuries, etc?
Does Brian Schneider's defense continue to rate well? Because if he does, he should be a very valuable trade commidity.
He's a tremendous defensive catcher, with a strong accurate arm. And his pitch-calling abilities have taken on mythic proportions this year since the team's ERA is under the 10.60 that most everyone expected. If someone wanted him -- he's under contract for the next two years at ~$9 million -- I think the Nats would definitely listen, especially with the emergence of Flores.
RC/27. I'm a little worried about adding it because the preformatted text will start to stretch the page with just a few more characters.
I'll take the under.
are there talks about moving/benching/trading wmp? if not, i'm not sure what the nats are gonna do with all these 1b/corner of types...
Humid air is lighter than dry air.* That effect is small, of course. Hot air is lighter than cool air, which makes more difference. That's why the West Coast ballparks have "heavy" air - it's because the midsummer temperatures are lower. And altitude makes a huge difference - D.C. is very near sea level, but so are Bos, NY, Phi, Bal, Fla, TB, Hou.
However, greater humidity would lead to greater water absorption into balls, making heavier balls. Oh, and there's no way DC's humidity, day in and day out, averaged over the entire summer, could match Miami's. (I mean "absolute" humidity, which is the amount of water in the air. This is most often expressed - nonlinearly - as dew point.)
*Avogadro's principle. Equal number of molecules per unit volume for equal temperature and pressure. Air is mostly nitrogen (molecular weight 28) and oxygen (32) - call it average molecular weight of about 29. Water vapor has weight 18.
how did I survive the offseason before I found BTF?
Recreational cannibalism?
Thank god AZ's projections will come last so I'd have less offseason time to be depressed
However, greater humidity would lead to greater water absorption into balls, making heavier balls. Oh, and there's no way DC's humidity, day in and day out, averaged over the entire summer, could match Miami's. (I mean "absolute" humidity, which is the amount of water in the air. This is most often expressed - nonlinearly - as dew point.)
I don't think that the heaviness of the balls has that much of an impact, but rather, the elasticity/bulk modulus of the ball is much different in a humid environment. In other words, the ball is less bouncy.
I could be wrong, though.
I think for 3 years in a row, in response to people who are fans of end-alphabet teams disappointed that they have to wait, I promised to do the next year in reverse. I finally remembered that this time. Next year, I'll go by team mascot name (Angels->Yankees). I should be done before FA time regardless.
the cold has an effect on this as well.. significant shrinkage.
I would expect something a bit closer to his '07 numbers (.329 / .382 / .468).
If you mean .264 .311 .350 instead of .254 .301 .340 closer, maybe. :) If you mean "close to those numbers", I'd be very tempted to put up a big wager that he doesn't.
He had a great 3/4 of a season in 2001 and a great 1/3 of a season last year. He has been "teh suck" or close to it in the other 6 seasons. Did you see some fundamental change in approach last year that makes you think that 2007 was anything other than a fluke?
Yes, I did. Guzman's walk rate was up a bit, and his K's were way down. That suggests to me that he's seeing the ball better.
Nonetheless, the small foul ground and short LCF gap certainly mean an improved hitting environment for Right Handed Batters compared to RFK.
Dan....when you did these projections, what kind of park factors did you use? Did you base these on RFK's 94-95 Park Factors, or a neutral environment? Should we be giving a mental "bump" to the hitters here?
Sorry.
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