BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 27, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

As strange as it may sound, the Nats had one of the best terrible offenses in baseball this generation. Upon reviewing last year's projections (adding in the benefit of knowing the 2008 park factor and league offense), I still ended up with an amazing amount of offensive underperformers. It wasn't an organizational issue - Nat minor leaguers didn't underperform at all as a group. It seemed to simply be localized in the majors.

If it was luck, not much you can do to "fix" that. If the Nationals were putting Polonium-210 in the clubhouse drinking water, well, they could stop doing that. If it was Lenny Harris, who didn't fare any better as a hitting coach anecdotally, the Nats are in luck, as he was easily and mercifully fired at the end of last season.

Washington's two main problems right now are lack of high-quality pitchers and Nick Johnson's wrist. The team can't do much about the fact that Nick Johnson has some genetic flaw that caused his hand to be connected to his arm by Scotch Tape that had been previous stuck on a carpet, but they can put some resources into bringing in some pitching, both in free agency, and not fighting over relatively small sums of money in the amateur draft.

All in all, the Nats, like the Orioles, aren't a good team yet, but are a lot less depressing than they were a couple of years ago.


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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jesus Flores             c   24  .252  .312  .409 104 313  32  79 17  1 10  55  23  81  0  1   90  Av 

FAIR
Johnny Estrada#          c   33  .272  .301  .384  84 294  25  80 15  0  6  38  10  29  0  0   81  Fr 
Luke Montz               c   25  .242  .308  .384 111 396  46  96 18  1 12  54  37  85  0  2   83  Fr 

POOR
Wil Nieves               c   31  .245  .289  .322  78 233  19  57 10  1  2  22  14  29  1  1   63  Vg 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIRST BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

EXCELLENT
Nick Johnson*            1b  30  .264  .416  .486  66 216  38  57 18  0 10  31  51  46  3  1  140  Av 

AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dmitri Young#            1b  35  .280  .355  .434  84 279  31  78 17  1  8  36  32  53  0  0  109  Pr 

FAIR
Ronnie Belliard          2b  34  .272  .333  .419 125 430  50 117 25  1 12  54  36  85  2  1   99  Av 

POOR
Larry Broadway*          1b  28  .252  .327  .394 126 432  47 109 23  1 12  49  47  97  2  2   91  Fr 
Kory Casto*              1b  27  .240  .316  .371 116 388  43  93 19  1 10  50  42  87  2  2   83  Av 
Luke Montz               c   25  .242  .308  .384 111 396  46  96 18  1 12  54  37  85  0  2   83  Fr 
Yurendell de Caster      3b  29  .240  .310  .361 110 388  41  93 21  1  8  43  34  94  8  6   78  Vg 
Chris Marrero            1b  20  .227  .273  .385 105 410  42  93 15  1 16  44  24  71  0  2   73  Av 

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SECOND BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

AVERAGE
Ronnie Belliard          2b  34  .272  .333  .419 125 430  50 117 25  1 12  54  36  85  2  1   99  Fr 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Willie Harris*           lf  31  .257  .338  .395 131 354  58  91 17  4  8  32  40  69 14  7   95  Fr 

FAIR
Yurendell de Caster      3b  29  .240  .310  .361 110 388  41  93 21  1  8  43  34  94  8  6   78  Pr 
Leonard Davis*           lf  25  .243  .283  .421 123 456  48 111 23  2 18  53  22  90  8  8   84  Pr 

POOR
Alberto Gonzalez         ss  26  .260  .313  .348  80 227  29  59 12  1  2  14  16  27  1  1   76  Vg 
Ray Olmedo#              ss  28  .252  .300  .326 106 337  33  85 14  1  3  26  22  49  9  6   67  Av 
Ed Rogers                ss  30  .255  .289  .335 110 373  35  95 15  0  5  25  15  57 11  7   66  Fr 
Anderson Hernandez#      ss  26  .245  .285  .318 136 535  64 131 21  3  4  41  30  82 13  6   61  Av 
Pete Orr*                2b  30  .240  .287  .315 108 254  39  61 10  3  1  15  15  50 10  3   60  Av 

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THIRD BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

VERY GOOD
Ryan Zimmerman           3b  24  .280  .342  .481 137 553  82 155 33  3 24  76  51  99  2  0  116  Vg 

AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ronnie Belliard          2b  34  .272  .333  .419 125 430  50 117 25  1 12  54  36  85  2  1   99  Fr 

FAIR
Willie Harris*           lf  31  .257  .338  .395 131 354  58  91 17  4  8  32  40  69 14  7   95  Av 

POOR
Kory Casto*              1b  27  .240  .316  .371 116 388  43  93 19  1 10  50  42  87  2  2   83  Fr 
Yurendell de Caster      3b  29  .240  .310  .361 110 388  41  93 21  1  8  43  34  94  8  6   78  Fr 
Leonard Davis*           lf  25  .243  .283  .421 123 456  48 111 23  2 18  53  22  90  8  8   84  Pr 
Ed Rogers                ss  30  .255  .289  .335 110 373  35  95 15  0  5  25  15  57 11  7   66  Fr 
Pete Orr*                2b  30  .240  .287  .315 108 254  39  61 10  3  1  15  15  50 10  3   60  Av 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHORTSTOPS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

VERY GOOD
Cristian Guzman#         ss  31  .299  .336  .423 100 411  56 123 22  4  7  35  21  43  3  3  101  Av 

AVERAGE
Ronnie Belliard          2b  34  .272  .333  .419 125 430  50 117 25  1 12  54  36  85  2  1   99  Pr 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FAIR
Alberto Gonzalez         ss  26  .260  .313  .348  80 227  29  59 12  1  2  14  16  27  1  1   76  Av 

POOR
Ray Olmedo#              ss  28  .252  .300  .326 106 337  33  85 14  1  3  26  22  49  9  6   67  Av 
Ed Rogers                ss  30  .255  .289  .335 110 373  35  95 15  0  5  25  15  57 11  7   66  Fr 
Ian Desmond              ss  23  .226  .283  .348 116 425  45  96 19  0 11  36  31  81 18 11   67  Vg 
Anderson Hernandez#      ss  26  .245  .285  .318 136 535  64 131 21  3  4  41  30  82 13  6   61  Av 
Pete Orr*                2b  30  .240  .287  .315 108 254  39  61 10  3  1  15  15  50 10  3   60  Pr 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF  RF 

VERY GOOD
Elijah Dukes#            rf  25  .255  .375  .461  95 321  52  82 17  2 15  38  56  84 11  7  121  Av  Av 

AVERAGE
Josh Willingham          lf  30  .259  .355  .458 121 424  59 110 24  3 18  65  49  93  3  0  114  Pr     
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastings Milledge        cf  24  .280  .343  .452 128 471  67 132 23  2 18  60  36  89 21  7  110  Av  Fr 

FAIR
Austin Kearns            rf  29  .252  .351  .400 121 437  63 110 24  1 13  60  58  92  3  1  100      Vg 

POOR
Willie Harris*           lf  31  .257  .338  .395 131 354  58  91 17  4  8  32  40  69 14  7   95  Vg     
Ryan Langerhans*         cf  29  .239  .341  .375 131 301  46  72 16  2  7  33  45  82  5  2   91  Vg  Av 
Jorge Padilla            rf  29  .271  .330  .370 105 376  46 102 17  1  6  43  28  55 10  5   86  Av  Vg 
Justin Maxwell           cf  25  .234  .300  .429  89 333  49  78 15  1 16  44  29  68 24  8   91  Vg  Vg 
Rogearvin Bernadina*     cf  25  .262  .318  .373 119 466  65 122 21  2  9  42  37  93 43 12   84  Vg  Vg 
Wily Mo Pena             lf  27  .246  .303  .401  98 289  30  71 13  1 10  29  21  85  1  1   86  Pr  Pr 
Kory Casto*              1b  27  .240  .316  .371 116 388  43  93 19  1 10  50  42  87  2  2   83  Fr  Fr 
Marvin Lowrance*         lf  24  .228  .295  .387 124 457  49 104 22  0 17  50  40  89  3  3   80  Pr  Pr 
Yurendell de Caster      3b  29  .240  .310  .361 110 388  41  93 21  1  8  43  34  94  8  6   78  Fr  Fr 
Leonard Davis*           lf  25  .243  .283  .421 123 456  48 111 23  2 18  53  22  90  8  8   84  Av  Av 
Alex Escobar             rf  30  .241  .293  .365  48 170  19  41  9  0  4  20  12  33  2  2   74  Av  Vg 
Chris Marrero            1b  20  .227  .273  .385 105 410  42  93 15  1 16  44  24  71  0  2   73  Fr  Fr 
Pete Orr*                2b  30  .240  .287  .315 108 254  39  61 10  3  1  15  15  50 10  3   60  Av  Av 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CENTERFIELDERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

EXCELLENT
Elijah Dukes#            rf  25  .255  .375  .461  95 321  52  82 17  2 15  38  56  84 11  7  121  Pr 

VERY GOOD
Lastings Milledge        cf  24  .280  .343  .452 128 471  67 132 23  2 18  60  36  89 21  7  110  Fr 

AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Willie Harris*           lf  31  .257  .338  .395 131 354  58  91 17  4  8  32  40  69 14  7   95  Fr 

FAIR
Ryan Langerhans*         cf  29  .239  .341  .375 131 301  46  72 16  2  7  33  45  82  5  2   91  Fr 
Jorge Padilla            rf  29  .271  .330  .370 105 376  46 102 17  1  6  43  28  55 10  5   86  Pr 
Justin Maxwell           cf  25  .234  .300  .429  89 333  49  78 15  1 16  44  29  68 24  8   91  Av 
Rogearvin Bernadina*     cf  25  .262  .318  .373 119 466  65 122 21  2  9  42  37  93 43 12   84  Av 

POOR
Wily Mo Pena             lf  27  .246  .303  .401  98 289  30  71 13  1 10  29  21  85  1  1   86  Pr 
Alex Escobar             rf  30  .241  .293  .365  48 170  19  41  9  0  4  20  12  33  2  2   74  Fr 
Pete Orr*                2b  30  .240  .287  .315 108 254  39  61 10  3  1  15  15  50 10  3   60  Fr 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STARTERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA+ 

MIDDLE THIRD
John Lannan*              24   4.11  11  11  29  28   171.0  171   78  19   59   98  107 
Shawn Hill                28   4.45   4   6  17  17    91.0  104   45   7   25   50   98 
Daniel Cabrera            28   4.62   9  13  31  31   185.0  179   95  21   99  165   95 
Scott Olsen*              25   4.76   9  12  32  32   191.0  206  101  28   65  131   92 
Jordan Zimmermann         23   4.81   6   8  26  25   131.0  135   70  18   57   88   91 
Tim Redding               31   4.82   8  13  30  29   170.0  184   91  23   60  111   91 
Odalis Perez*             32   4.84   6  10  26  23   132.0  147   71  18   43   92   90 
Jason Bergmann            27   4.94   5   9  35  22   142.0  150   78  22   53  106   89 

BOTTOM THIRD
Garrett Mock              26   5.02   5   7  30  20   122.0  134   68  15   49   87   87 
Shairon Martis            22   5.13   7  12  27  27   144.0  158   82  20   64   87   85 
Matt Chico*               26   5.13   4   7  20  19   107.0  122   61  15   38   63   85 
Collin Balester           23   5.24   7  12  30  30   158.0  179   92  24   58  100   84 
Marco Estrada             25   5.66   4   8  22  18    97.0  112   61  15   42   58   77 
Michael O'Connor*         28   5.72   3   6  17  17    85.0   99   54  18   26   47   77 
Tyler Clippard            24   5.75   5  13  27  27   133.0  147   85  22   74   90   76 
Ross Detwiler*            23   5.93   3   8  18  17    82.0   94   54  13   42   46   74 
Luis Atilano              24   6.06   3   7  22  16   101.0  123   68  19   34   34   72 
Mike Hinckley*            26   6.46   3  11  33  17   117.0  145   84  18   62   53   68 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RELIEVERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA+ 

MIDDLE THIRD
Saul Rivera               31   3.80   5   4  71   0    83.0   82   35   3   39   62  115 
Chad Cordero              27   3.91   3   2  46   0    46.0   45   20   6   16   40  112 
Joel Hanrahan             27   3.92   5   4  70   0    85.0   76   37   9   43   92  112 
Steven Shell              26   4.19   3   4  71   0    86.0   84   40  13   29   69  105 
Jesus Colome              31   4.50   2   3  56   0    64.0   64   32   6   30   46   97 

BOTTOM THIRD
Terrell Young             23   4.96   2   4  36   0    49.0   52   27   5   31   25   88 
Brian Sanches             30   4.98   4   2  50   0    56.0   59   31  10   21   51   88 
Levale Speigner           28   4.98   2   4  38   2    65.0   75   36   7   23   31   88 

* - Throws Left

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
                   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Projection        .280  .342  .481 137 553  82 155 33  3 24  78  51  99  2  0  116

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Ron Santo, Adrian Beltre

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR    41
AVG     76
REP LV  99

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
>160    1       >.400   1       >10     1       >200    0
>140    8       >.375   10      >5      15      >150    60
>130    20      >.350   40
>120    41      >.325   77      2B      %
>110    66      >.300   97      >45     4
>100    86                      >30     71
>90     96
>80     99
>60     100

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
>.350   0       >.550   7       >50     0       >70     0
>.325   2       >.500   32      >40     2       >50     0
>.300   19      >.450   77      >30     12      >30     0
>.275   55      >.400   97      >20     80      >10     0
>.250   90      >.350   100     >10     100

(Based on Projected ABs)

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - Lastings Milledge (CF)
                   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Projection        .280  .343  .452 128 471  67 132 23  2 18  60  36  89 21  7  110  		

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Jose Cardenal, Chet Lemon

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR    43
AVG     77
REP LV  90

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
>160    0       >.400   2       >10     0       >200    0
>140    4       >.375   11      >5      21      >150    5
>130    11      >.350   41
>120    27      >.325   81      2B      %
>110    50      >.300   98      >45     0
>100    74                      >30     10
>90     91
>80     98
>60     100

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
>.350   0       >.550   2       >50     0       >70     0
>.325   3       >.500   14      >40     0       >50     1
>.300   16      >.450   50      >30     2       >30     20
>.275   53      >.400   88      >20     31      >10     98
>.250   94      >.350   99      >10     96

(Based on Projected ABs)

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - John Lannan
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Projection         4.11  11  11  29  28  171  171   78  19   59   98   107

Top Near-Age Comps:  Tom Glavine, Dave Fleming

ODDIBE

ERA     %
Top 1/3 50
Mid 1/3 36
Bot 1/3 14

ERA+    %       BB      %
>150    5       <29     0
>140    9       <38     5
>130    17      <48     24
>120    28      <57     47
>110    43      <67     67
>100    63      <76     91
>90     82
>80     96      HR      %
>70     100     <13     11
                <19     50
K       %       <25     79
>171    0       <30     97
>152    0
>133    4
>114    21

(Based on Projected IP)

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - Daniel Cabrera
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Projection         4.62   9  13  31  31  185  170   95  21   99  165   95

Top Near-Age Comps:  Stan Williams, Darryl Kile

ODDIBE

ERA     %
Top 1/3 30
Mid 1/3 39
Bot 1/3 31

ERA+    %       BB      %
>150    1       <31     0
>140    2       <41     0
>130    5       <51     2
>120    13      <62     9
>110    24      <72     20
>100    43      <82     29
>90     65
>80     83      HR      %
>70     93      <14     17
                <21     52
K       %       <27     73
>185    14      <33     89
>164    36
>144    72
>123    90

(Based on Projected IP)

---------------------------------------------

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Dukes      19
Willingham  8
Zimmerman   8

OBP >.400

Dukes      24
Young       8
Kearns      7

SLG >.550

Zimmerman   7
Dukes       6
Willingham  4

BA >.325

Guzman     17
Young       4
Milledge    3

2B >45

Zimmerman   4

3B >10

Harris      2
Zimmerman   1

HR >30

Zimmerman  12
Lowrance    4
Milledge    2

SB >50

Bernandina 36
Milledge    1

ERA+ >140

Hanrahan   20
Rivera     13
Shell      13

K/9 >9

Hanrahan   49
Sanches    20
Cabrera    14

BB/9 <1.5

Hill       12
O'Connor    9
Perez       8

HR/9 <0.7

Rivera     92
Hill       49
Hanrahan   28

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

ZiPS 2009 Archive

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Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2008 at 03:27 PM | 38 comment(s)
Related News: Washington, ZIPS

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Page 1 of 1 pages

1. STEAGLES came to play Posted: December 27, 2008 at 02:56 PM (#3038936)

what are some thoughts on rogearvin bernadina. i saw him play in harrisburgh in 2007, and he was a spark at the top of the lineup, but i never expected him to approach a .330 batting average at any level, though i guess you could say he was repeating the league and 24 years old.

i know he's not .350 batting average good, but what's his peak look like? is it .320/.360/.500 with 60 SB, or is it more like .290/.330/.390 with 35 SB?

2. number 6 Posted: December 27, 2008 at 04:33 PM (#3038952)

why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?

3. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 27, 2008 at 04:46 PM (#3038959)

why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?

Well, his mean projection is an ERA+ of 107, which is middle third. I'm guessing that the theoretical seasons where he'd be top third are all there by a small amount, whereas there might be a 5% chance that he has an ERA+ of 70, which would pull down the mean.

4. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2008 at 04:55 PM (#3038962)

or to put it another way, the line between middle third and top third is probably just above 107.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2008 at 05:02 PM (#3038965)

The cutoff for top-third is 110, so he's right there.

6. ironpigpen Posted: December 27, 2008 at 05:23 PM (#3038972)

lvironpigs.wordpress.com

Eldred signs with Washington Nationals

7. Freeballin' Posted: December 27, 2008 at 06:14 PM (#3038985)

Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?

8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 27, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#3038987)

Brad Eldred? Heh. Good luck with that.

9. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again Posted: December 27, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#3038992)

Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?

Milledge's ZIPS career projection prior to the 2008 season.

10. John DiFool2 Posted: December 27, 2008 at 06:39 PM (#3038995)

Wily Mo Pena needs a do-over on his career. The projection for his slugging is 46 points below his career number, and he'll be in just his age 27 season.

11. Freeballin' Posted: December 27, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#3038999)

So in this season alone, he loses about .025 of OBP and .050 of SLG. That's significant. Have to think the peak works out much lower.

12. karlmagnus Posted: December 27, 2008 at 07:18 PM (#3039003)

Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...

13. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2008 at 09:31 PM (#3039050)

Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...

Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder. Players with Pena's profile as a hitter have generally not lasted long and it doesn't help to add "poor defensive corner OF" to the resume.

Pena's projection probably is a little low but he probably has nothing more than a couple decent seasons as a bench hitter left in him.

14. Chris Needham Posted: December 27, 2008 at 09:36 PM (#3039053)

Wily Mo's also coming off a bad shoulder injury, so who knows how he'll recover. Barring injury, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nats dump him during spring training. They're loaded with outfielders... now whether those outfielder are any damn good is a different topic.

I'm glad that Dan noticed the team-wide underperformance by the offense. A handful of guys on any team always underperform, but this wasn't just one or two. Some of that was injury, but I'm definitely glad that Lenny Harris's reign of terror is over -- where there's nothing so exciting as a weakly hit ball in the general vicinity of the opposite field!

15. Frisco Cali Posted: December 27, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#3039056)

Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder

So you're saying he's just not very good?

16. 1k5v3L, Useless

Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#3039070)

That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.

17. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again Posted: December 28, 2008 at 02:35 AM (#3039132)

That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.

Depends on how he good he's on defense. UZR had him at -11/150 last year and he's going to have to hit better than that projection to be a good player if he doesn't improve on defense.

I think Dukes beats that projection if he stays healthy. He's ridiculously talented.

18. Chris Needham Posted: December 28, 2008 at 09:40 AM (#3039155)

He's terrible defensively, and didn't show improvement at all. The team's made a few rumblings about how they want to improve there, and I think they might view him in the corner down the road.

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

19. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 28, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#3039239)

How much of this underperformance was a result of the ballpark change? What would happen if you reran last year's projections using what we know about Nationals Park?

-- MWE

20. andrewberg Posted: December 28, 2008 at 07:38 PM (#3039292)

Is there a way to look at other players' career projections like the Milledge one?

21. JMN Is Convinced He Has H1N1 Every Time He Coughs Posted: December 28, 2008 at 10:22 PM (#3039349)

It's pretty sad that Jordan Zimmermann would already be the team's fifth starter, according to ZiPS.

22. Ironic Goat Posted: December 29, 2008 at 12:15 PM (#3039604)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

Come on, Chris. You know better than that.

http://dcbb.blogspot.com/2007/11/help-im-choking.html

As far as I know, Nook Logan has not yet become an astronaut.

23. TerpNats Posted: December 29, 2008 at 02:02 PM (#3039732)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

If that means the rest of his career could resemble Von Hayes', I suppose that's reason for limited optimism.

24. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#3039874)

Goat: There's a special place in hell for you for dredging that up. I'll have my therapist send you the bill.

That, Ruben Rivera and Jack Cust are all inner-circle hall of famers in that category.

25. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 04:56 PM (#3039876)

Hey, at least they're officially mentioning Jordan Zimmerman as a starter, it shows that their FO are at least paying attention to the more talented portions of their minor league roster instead of a constant flow of retreads.

I wonder how Willingham would rate for 200+ PA at first. I know it would be basically minors numbers to go on, but that would be the team efficiency at the moment.

26. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 04:58 PM (#3039879)

Also, those Hernandez numbers are brutal.

27. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 05:02 PM (#3039880)

But he batted .320 last year!!!!! /every_stupid_msg_board_nats_fan

I do wonder what their plans are for there. I'd almost love to see them spot Willie Harris back there just to get him in the lineup. He's sure to be a step worse than last season with the bat, and his defense probably isn't first rate, but considering the alternative is a 450-pound Ronnie Belliard playing out near the warning track in right, I'd be willing to chance it.

28. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 05:09 PM (#3039886)

Well, somebody has to make the last out, it'll make the pitchers feel better.

29. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 05:13 PM (#3039890)

Plus, I need at least ONE fat guy playing. I mean, we're not competing really anyway, so it may as well be Bellylard. Maybe he can pull that glove flip play again to make me forget the twenty other times he forgets where he's supposed to be.

30. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 05:30 PM (#3039903)

Well, we all know that the second that NJ gets a hangnail, Jimbo's going to be itching to bring the whale back up from Syracuse -- assuming the van transporting him to DC can make it up and over the Poconos.

31. Repoz

Posted: December 29, 2008 at 05:38 PM (#3039909)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

Is there anything finer then watching Milledge assininnyly get thrown out on the bases...and then run off the field with his helmet tucked under his arm.

Sweet!

32. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 06:18 PM (#3039941)

C'mon Repoz. That's not fair. If he DID make it to third base with two outs in the bottom of the ninth down 3 runs, you'd be the first one cheering him!

33. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 30, 2008 at 10:48 AM (#3040260)

Yeah, that's almost as much fun as watching him field with one foot starting in the warning track.

34. Chris Needham Posted: December 30, 2008 at 05:19 PM (#3040574)

With Belliard playing rover and a linebacker to his right for most of the season, do you blame him? I'd get as far away from those guys as I could too.

35. Joshua Gibsons Ruth (Voxter) Posted: December 31, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#3041256)

1. I had forgotten how good Dukes was last year when he was actually playing.

2. I sincerely hope he makes it, because with the retirement of Bonds and the impending loss of Sheffield in the next few years, baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

36. STEAGLES came to play Posted: January 04, 2009 at 06:00 PM (#3043140)

baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

milton bradley might have something to say about that.

37. JPWF13

Posted: January 05, 2009 at 12:20 PM (#3043526)

baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

milton bradley might have something to say about that.

Well Milton doesn't seem to be a"bad" person, he seems to have legitimate psychiatric issues.
Dukes, well, he appears to be a genuinely bad guy on top of his psychiatric issues

38. thetailor Posted: February 11, 2009 at 04:17 PM (#3074912)

Player, OPS+ (except Dunn who is obp/slg)

Guzman, 101
Milledge, 110
Zimmerman, 116
Dunn, .385/.522
Johnson, 140
Dukes, 121
Belliard, 99
Flores, 90

That lineup can do some serious damage. And while you're at it, put me down for the over on Zimmerman and Milledge.

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2009 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

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