BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

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1. channeling my inner STEAGLES Posted: December 27, 2008 at 07:56 PM (#3038936)

what are some thoughts on rogearvin bernadina. i saw him play in harrisburgh in 2007, and he was a spark at the top of the lineup, but i never expected him to approach a .330 batting average at any level, though i guess you could say he was repeating the league and 24 years old.

i know he's not .350 batting average good, but what's his peak look like? is it .320/.360/.500 with 60 SB, or is it more like .290/.330/.390 with 35 SB?

2. number 6 Posted: December 27, 2008 at 09:33 PM (#3038952)

why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?

3. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 27, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#3038959)

why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?

Well, his mean projection is an ERA+ of 107, which is middle third. I'm guessing that the theoretical seasons where he'd be top third are all there by a small amount, whereas there might be a 5% chance that he has an ERA+ of 70, which would pull down the mean.

4. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2008 at 09:55 PM (#3038962)

or to put it another way, the line between middle third and top third is probably just above 107.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:02 PM (#3038965)

The cutoff for top-third is 110, so he's right there.

6. ironpigpen Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:23 PM (#3038972)

lvironpigs.wordpress.com

Eldred signs with Washington Nationals

7. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:14 PM (#3038985)

Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?

8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:25 PM (#3038987)

Brad Eldred? Heh. Good luck with that.

9. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:36 PM (#3038992)

Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?

Milledge's ZIPS career projection prior to the 2008 season.

10. John DiFool2 Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:39 PM (#3038995)

Wily Mo Pena needs a do-over on his career. The projection for his slugging is 46 points below his career number, and he'll be in just his age 27 season.

11. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:04 AM (#3038999)

So in this season alone, he loses about .025 of OBP and .050 of SLG. That's significant. Have to think the peak works out much lower.

12. karlmagnus Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#3039003)

Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...

13. Walt Davis Posted: December 28, 2008 at 02:31 AM (#3039050)

Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...

Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder. Players with Pena's profile as a hitter have generally not lasted long and it doesn't help to add "poor defensive corner OF" to the resume.

Pena's projection probably is a little low but he probably has nothing more than a couple decent seasons as a bench hitter left in him.

14. Chris Needham Posted: December 28, 2008 at 02:36 AM (#3039053)

Wily Mo's also coming off a bad shoulder injury, so who knows how he'll recover. Barring injury, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nats dump him during spring training. They're loaded with outfielders... now whether those outfielder are any damn good is a different topic.

I'm glad that Dan noticed the team-wide underperformance by the offense. A handful of guys on any team always underperform, but this wasn't just one or two. Some of that was injury, but I'm definitely glad that Lenny Harris's reign of terror is over -- where there's nothing so exciting as a weakly hit ball in the general vicinity of the opposite field!

15. Frisco Cali Posted: December 28, 2008 at 02:46 AM (#3039056)

Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder

So you're saying he's just not very good?

16. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:33 AM (#3039070)

That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.

17. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: December 28, 2008 at 07:35 AM (#3039132)

That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.

Depends on how he good he's on defense. UZR had him at -11/150 last year and he's going to have to hit better than that projection to be a good player if he doesn't improve on defense.

I think Dukes beats that projection if he stays healthy. He's ridiculously talented.

18. Chris Needham Posted: December 28, 2008 at 02:40 PM (#3039155)

He's terrible defensively, and didn't show improvement at all. The team's made a few rumblings about how they want to improve there, and I think they might view him in the corner down the road.

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

19. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 28, 2008 at 09:21 PM (#3039239)

How much of this underperformance was a result of the ballpark change? What would happen if you reran last year's projections using what we know about Nationals Park?

-- MWE

20. andrewberg Posted: December 29, 2008 at 12:38 AM (#3039292)

Is there a way to look at other players' career projections like the Milledge one?

21. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 29, 2008 at 03:22 AM (#3039349)

It's pretty sad that Jordan Zimmermann would already be the team's fifth starter, according to ZiPS.

22. Ironic Goat Posted: December 29, 2008 at 05:15 PM (#3039604)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

Come on, Chris. You know better than that.

http://dcbb.blogspot.com/2007/11/help-im-choking.html

As far as I know, Nook Logan has not yet become an astronaut.

23. TerpNats Posted: December 29, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#3039732)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

If that means the rest of his career could resemble Von Hayes', I suppose that's reason for limited optimism.

24. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#3039874)

Goat: There's a special place in hell for you for dredging that up. I'll have my therapist send you the bill.

That, Ruben Rivera and Jack Cust are all inner-circle hall of famers in that category.

25. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 09:56 PM (#3039876)

Hey, at least they're officially mentioning Jordan Zimmerman as a starter, it shows that their FO are at least paying attention to the more talented portions of their minor league roster instead of a constant flow of retreads.

I wonder how Willingham would rate for 200+ PA at first. I know it would be basically minors numbers to go on, but that would be the team efficiency at the moment.

26. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 09:58 PM (#3039879)

Also, those Hernandez numbers are brutal.

27. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:02 PM (#3039880)

But he batted .320 last year!!!!! /every_stupid_msg_board_nats_fan

I do wonder what their plans are for there. I'd almost love to see them spot Willie Harris back there just to get him in the lineup. He's sure to be a step worse than last season with the bat, and his defense probably isn't first rate, but considering the alternative is a 450-pound Ronnie Belliard playing out near the warning track in right, I'd be willing to chance it.

28. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:09 PM (#3039886)

Well, somebody has to make the last out, it'll make the pitchers feel better.

29. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:13 PM (#3039890)

Plus, I need at least ONE fat guy playing. I mean, we're not competing really anyway, so it may as well be Bellylard. Maybe he can pull that glove flip play again to make me forget the twenty other times he forgets where he's supposed to be.

30. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:30 PM (#3039903)

Well, we all know that the second that NJ gets a hangnail, Jimbo's going to be itching to bring the whale back up from Syracuse -- assuming the van transporting him to DC can make it up and over the Poconos.

31. Repoz

Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#3039909)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

Is there anything finer then watching Milledge assininnyly get thrown out on the bases...and then run off the field with his helmet tucked under his arm.

Sweet!

32. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:18 PM (#3039941)

C'mon Repoz. That's not fair. If he DID make it to third base with two outs in the bottom of the ninth down 3 runs, you'd be the first one cheering him!

33. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: December 30, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#3040260)

Yeah, that's almost as much fun as watching him field with one foot starting in the warning track.

34. Chris Needham Posted: December 30, 2008 at 10:19 PM (#3040574)

With Belliard playing rover and a linebacker to his right for most of the season, do you blame him? I'd get as far away from those guys as I could too.

35. tl; dr (Voxter)

Posted: December 31, 2008 at 08:49 PM (#3041256)

1. I had forgotten how good Dukes was last year when he was actually playing.

2. I sincerely hope he makes it, because with the retirement of Bonds and the impending loss of Sheffield in the next few years, baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

36. channeling my inner STEAGLES Posted: January 04, 2009 at 11:00 PM (#3043140)

baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

milton bradley might have something to say about that.

37. JPWF13

Posted: January 05, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3043526)

baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

milton bradley might have something to say about that.

Well Milton doesn't seem to be a"bad" person, he seems to have legitimate psychiatric issues.
Dukes, well, he appears to be a genuinely bad guy on top of his psychiatric issues

38. thetailor Posted: February 11, 2009 at 09:17 PM (#3074912)

Player, OPS+ (except Dunn who is obp/slg)

Guzman, 101
Milledge, 110
Zimmerman, 116
Dunn, .385/.522
Johnson, 140
Dukes, 121
Belliard, 99
Flores, 90

That lineup can do some serious damage. And while you're at it, put me down for the over on Zimmerman and Milledge.

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