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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, November 08, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks
For the third year in a row, the Diamondback offense was rather lackluster, but this time around, Pythagoras caught up with the team and they went from outperforming their RS/RA by 11 games to hitting the figure right on the nose.Eric Byrnes did no favor to the Diamondbacks this season, playing terribly and eventually tearing his hamstring, thus ending any hopes of Arizona being able to sell high before the salary increase to $11 million kicks in for 2009. Now the team is faced with paying $11 million to an easily replaceable player that could have been used for a more important purpose like bringing Orlando Hudson back. Overpaying to bring back a popular, mediocre player might be fun when you're coming off a 90-win playoff season, but like binge drinking, it becomes a lot less enjoyable in the morning.
The Diamondbacks have a great top 3 rotation and some solid position players, but they really need to add an impact hitter (and if Byrnes becomes a 4th outfielder, so be it), shore up the infield, and another solid relief arm or two. Luckily for Arizona, they're in the same division as Colorado and San Francisco, San Diego's going to do a total rebuild, and the Dodgers have a GM who still can't figure out the difference between above-average players and replacement-level ones.
Don't be too worried about the Jarrod Parker projection - that's a 2009 projection, not some final verdict on his prospectitude.
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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS THR
VERY GOOD
Chris Snyder c 28 .246 .347 .425 102 301 36 74 18 0 12 44 44 77 0 0 Av
AVERAGE
Miguel Montero* c 25 .253 .322 .425 99 261 34 66 16 1 9 37 26 52 0 0 Av
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FAIR
Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 2 1 Fr
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FIRST BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Adam Dunn* lf 29 .252 .385 .522 148 500 85 126 25 1 36 101 104 150 4 1 Fr
AVERAGE
Conor Jackson 1b 27 .296 .377 .454 140 487 74 144 32 3 13 67 58 60 4 2 Av
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FAIR
Jamie D'Antona 3b 27 .286 .334 .450 125 447 52 128 29 1 14 64 31 65 1 0 Av
Chad Tracy* 1b 29 .274 .332 .422 98 339 42 93 21 1 9 45 28 58 1 0 Av
POOR
Josh Whitesell* 1b 27 .249 .345 .417 125 381 42 95 20 1 14 48 52 125 2 3 Vg
Tony Clark# 1b 37 .238 .325 .415 85 147 16 35 5 0 7 22 19 42 0 0 Av
Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 2 1 Fr
Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 6 4 Av
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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Orlando Hudson# 2b 31 .290 .363 .431 127 473 65 137 29 4 10 60 54 74 6 3 Av
Mark Reynolds 3b 25 .257 .334 .484 150 525 88 135 29 3 28 89 59 180 7 2 Fr
FAIR
David Eckstein ss 34 .289 .357 .364 97 363 48 105 19 1 2 35 28 26 4 2 Av
Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 9 1 Fr
POOR
Jesus Merchan ss 28 .281 .318 .374 111 398 44 112 18 2 5 41 15 29 6 2 Av
Augie Ojeda# ss 34 .240 .332 .304 85 204 25 49 8 1 1 16 23 22 0 0 Av
Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 6 4 Fr
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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
AVERAGE
Mark Reynolds 3b 25 .257 .334 .484 150 525 88 135 29 3 28 89 59 180 7 2 Fr
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Jamie D'Antona 3b 27 .286 .334 .450 125 447 52 128 29 1 14 64 31 65 1 0 Pr
FAIR
Chad Tracy* 1b 29 .274 .332 .422 98 339 42 93 21 1 9 45 28 58 1 0 Fr
POOR
Jesus Merchan ss 28 .281 .318 .374 111 398 44 112 18 2 5 41 15 29 6 2 Av
Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 2 1 Fr
Augie Ojeda# ss 34 .240 .332 .304 85 204 25 49 8 1 1 16 23 22 0 0 Vg
Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 6 4 Av
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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
AVERAGE
Stephen Drew* ss 26 .274 .327 .449 149 572 75 157 35 7 17 80 46 101 5 2 Fr
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David Eckstein ss 34 .289 .357 .364 97 363 48 105 19 1 2 35 28 26 4 2 Av
Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 9 1 Fr
FAIR
Jesus Merchan ss 28 .281 .318 .374 111 398 44 112 18 2 5 41 15 29 6 2 Av
POOR
Augie Ojeda# ss 34 .240 .332 .304 85 204 25 49 8 1 1 16 23 22 0 0 Av
Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 6 4 Pr
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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS LF RF
EXCELLENT
Adam Dunn* lf 29 .252 .385 .522 148 500 85 126 25 1 36 101 104 150 4 1 Pr Pr
VERY GOOD
Conor Jackson 1b 27 .296 .377 .454 140 487 74 144 32 3 13 67 58 60 4 2 Av
AVERAGE
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Justin Upton rf 21 .265 .349 .457 138 490 71 130 27 5 19 74 60 128 11 8 Av Av
FAIR
Chad Tracy* 1b 29 .274 .332 .422 98 339 42 93 21 1 9 45 28 58 1 0 Av Av
Eric Byrnes lf 33 .262 .323 .436 98 381 57 100 21 3 13 53 29 62 18 4 Vg Vg
Jeff Salazar* cf 28 .263 .343 .405 127 380 59 100 21 3 9 48 44 70 8 3 Vg Vg
Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 9 1 Fr Fr
POOR
Tim Raines Jr.# cf 29 .264 .301 .407 103 364 50 96 18 2 10 46 18 65 18 4 Av Av
Trent Oeltjen* rf 26 .271 .322 .376 117 380 50 103 18 5 4 40 20 54 15 7 Vg Vg
Alex Romero# cf 25 .276 .312 .385 130 431 50 119 23 3 6 47 21 43 12 6 Av Av
Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 2 1 Fr Fr
Cyle Hankerd lf 24 .252 .299 .360 116 428 36 108 20 1 8 45 21 59 3 4 Pr Pr
Gerardo Parra* cf 22 .256 .302 .353 126 507 51 130 21 2 8 52 30 66 26 13 Vg Vg
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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Justin Upton rf 21 .265 .349 .457 138 490 71 130 27 5 19 74 60 128 11 8 Av
AVERAGE
Chris Young cf 25 .254 .319 .484 162 603 93 153 39 5 30 100 57 138 20 5 Vg
Eric Byrnes lf 33 .262 .323 .436 98 381 57 100 21 3 13 53 29 62 18 4 Fr
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Jeff Salazar* cf 28 .263 .343 .405 127 380 59 100 21 3 9 48 44 70 8 3 Av
Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 9 1 Pr
FAIR
Tim Raines Jr.# cf 29 .264 .301 .407 103 364 50 96 18 2 10 46 18 65 18 4 Fr
Trent Oeltjen* rf 26 .271 .322 .376 117 380 50 103 18 5 4 40 20 54 15 7 Fr
Alex Romero# cf 25 .276 .312 .385 130 431 50 119 23 3 6 47 21 43 12 6 Fr
POOR
Gerardo Parra* cf 22 .256 .302 .353 126 507 51 130 21 2 8 52 30 66 26 13 Fr
* - Hits Left
# - Switch-Hitter
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
Brandon Webb 30 3.08 18 9 32 32 225.0 206 77 12 61 183
Danny Haren 28 3.41 15 9 32 32 214.0 198 81 21 44 198
Max Scherzer 24 3.70 8 6 21 21 112.0 101 46 9 50 106
MIDDLE THIRD
Randy Johnson* 45 4.41 9 9 25 25 149.0 148 73 22 43 146
Doug Davis* 33 4.58 8 10 27 27 161.0 172 82 15 71 119
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Brooks Brown 23 4.89 8 12 27 27 149.0 163 81 14 71 81
Yusmeiro Petit 24 5.07 5 8 26 18 110.0 120 62 19 31 71
BOTTOM THIRD
Matt Torra 25 5.30 7 13 26 25 151.0 179 89 19 42 70
Billy Buckner 25 5.43 6 10 29 21 131.0 150 79 18 59 77
Esmerling Vasquez 25 5.51 4 8 27 19 111.0 120 68 14 66 65
Edgar Gonzalez 26 5.69 4 9 26 19 117.0 138 74 21 38 72
Juan Gutierrez 25 5.69 5 9 23 21 117.0 137 74 17 52 63
Hector Ambriz 25 5.70 6 12 28 27 150.0 171 95 25 60 75
Jarrod Parker 20 5.95 6 12 25 25 115.0 137 76 20 48 58
Evan MacLane* 26 6.32 4 11 27 21 131.0 171 92 22 37 51
Wes Roemer 22 6.64 5 14 28 28 160.0 201 118 36 57 72
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
Juan Cruz 30 3.36 4 2 50 5 67.0 53 25 6 36 82
MIDDLE THIRD
Tony Pena 27 3.71 5 4 75 0 80.0 79 33 7 22 57
Chad Qualls 30 3.74 6 5 76 0 77.0 75 32 7 25 60
Brandon Lyon 29 3.99 4 4 69 0 70.0 75 31 5 18 44
Doug Slaten* 29 4.02 3 2 60 0 47.0 47 21 4 21 36
Jon Rauch 30 4.23 6 6 84 0 83.0 81 39 12 25 72
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BOTTOM THIRD
Wil Ledezma* 28 4.75 3 5 30 12 89.0 93 47 9 42 63
Jon Coutlangus* 28 4.86 2 3 40 0 37.0 37 20 3 24 28
Connor Robertson 27 4.89 4 6 50 0 70.0 75 38 8 33 50
Jailen Peguero 28 4.95 4 5 62 0 80.0 84 44 9 43 55
Leonel Rosales 28 5.40 1 3 44 0 50.0 58 30 7 21 30
Emiliano Fruto 25 6.03 4 8 43 7 91.0 95 61 15 66 72
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Stephen Drew
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .291 .350 .486 162 622 91 181 41 10 20 94 57 102 8 0 111
Mean .274 .327 .449 149 572 75 157 35 7 17 80 46 101 5 2 96
Pessimistic (15%) .255 .306 .409 137 526 51 134 30 6 13 65 39 100 2 2 81
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Kurt Stillwell, Jay Bell
Player Spotlight - Justin Upton
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .284 .375 .501 152 539 90 153 31 7 24 91 76 133 16 8 122
Mean .265 .349 .457 138 490 71 130 27 5 19 74 60 128 11 8 104
Pessimistic (15%) .245 .319 .415 121 429 46 105 22 3 15 58 44 121 6 7 86
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ron Swoboda, Dwight Evans
Player Spotlight - Danny Haren
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 2.72 19 7 34 34 235 197 71 19 39 227 173
Mean 3.41 15 9 32 32 214 198 81 21 44 198 138
Pessimistic (15%) 4.29 10 10 27 27 174 179 83 21 47 149 109
Top Near-Age Comps: Schoolboy Rowe, Javier Vazquez
Player Spotlight - Doug Davis
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 4.11 10 9 29 29 175 176 80 14 73 133 114
Mean 4.58 8 10 27 27 161 172 82 15 71 119 103
Pessimistic (15%) 5.39 5 10 22 22 127 147 76 14 65 88 87
Top Near-Age Comps: Bill Hallahan, Al Downing
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
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This isn't any better than what he did at age 20-average is up a bit but secondary bases down some.
Howcum these projection systems never project a very young player to improve significantly from his base? It's been a long-standing peeve of mine. A 20 year old with some power can run well and has a good eye has a pretty decent nonzero chance to turn into Mickey Mantle. If not he'll be Cesar Cedeno (free of the Astrodome) which is still pretty good.
That's the point of the Optimistic/Pessimistic range forecasts. However, for some reason Upton doesn't have as much variance as I would expect a player of his age and talent level to have.
Howcum these projection systems never project a very young player to improve significantly from his base?
Well, they do - the thing is that while younger (and much older players) have shorter pasts for the purposes of establishing a base level of performance, it never becomes one year.
Going forward:
Age 22: 264/363/471
Age 23: 270/368/495
Age 24: 276/380/526
Age 25: 281/388/547
People tend to overrate both the odds of a young player improving and the degree. Nobody's downside is Cesar Cedeno unless it's someone already far better than Cesar Cedeno, and Upton isn't.
Huh. I didn't know Augie Ojeda was still playing. Who else is floating around in the NL?
IOW, Arizona isn't going anywhere anytime soon. They have some nice pieces, but they don't really add up to much.
At ages 21-22, Cedeno put up OPS+s of 162 and 152 while stealing 111 bases just for fun. I still consider him the most talented player I've ever seen -- granted, that promise "vanished" rather quickly.
I didn't understand JDiF's Cedeno comment, anyway. He wrote this:
If not he'll be Cesar Cedeno (free of the Astrodome) which is still pretty good.
Does he mean Cedeno from '82 on?
Only one person in all the history of baseball has turned into Mickey Mantle.
CY's sudden inability to steal bases had really nothing to do with injuries and had everything to do with his sudden inability to read pitchers. Maybe he was too busy timing the pitcher according to Gibson's complicated formula and less busy just running...
Honestly, I've never seen a more fidgety and confused base stealer at 1b than CY in 2008
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