BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. John DiFool2 Posted: November 08, 2008 at 11:08 PM (#3005568)

Justin Upton rf 21 .265 .349 .457

This isn't any better than what he did at age 20-average is up a bit but secondary bases down some.

Howcum these projection systems never project a very young player to improve significantly from his base? It's been a long-standing peeve of mine. A 20 year old with some power can run well and has a good eye has a pretty decent nonzero chance to turn into Mickey Mantle. If not he'll be Cesar Cedeno (free of the Astrodome) which is still pretty good.

2. JJ1986 Posted: November 09, 2008 at 12:49 AM (#3005579)

Wilkin Castillo is in Cincinnati now.

3. NJ is feeling better Posted: November 09, 2008 at 01:09 AM (#3005581)

Re: 1

That's the point of the Optimistic/Pessimistic range forecasts. However, for some reason Upton doesn't have as much variance as I would expect a player of his age and talent level to have.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 09, 2008 at 01:24 AM (#3005582)

Howcum these projection systems never project a very young player to improve significantly from his base?

Well, they do - the thing is that while younger (and much older players) have shorter pasts for the purposes of establishing a base level of performance, it never becomes one year.

Going forward:

Age 22: 264/363/471
Age 23: 270/368/495
Age 24: 276/380/526
Age 25: 281/388/547

People tend to overrate both the odds of a young player improving and the degree. Nobody's downside is Cesar Cedeno unless it's someone already far better than Cesar Cedeno, and Upton isn't.

5. greenback

Posted: November 09, 2008 at 01:29 AM (#3005583)

Kinda surprising to see a bigger 23/24 leap compared to the 22/23 leap. I know it's not a huge difference, but I would've expected it to be the other way around and then some.

6. stealfirstbase Posted: November 09, 2008 at 04:06 AM (#3005597)

Juan Cruz being 30 years old makes me feel old. We've seen that guys whole career, from "can't miss" to "overhyped Cubs' prospect" to "failed Cubs' prospect" to "has been" to being an elite reliever.

Huh. I didn't know Augie Ojeda was still playing. Who else is floating around in the NL?

7. karkface killah Posted: November 09, 2008 at 04:30 AM (#3005600)

Tough to believe Adam Dunn is only 29 yrs old still.

8. Robert S. Posted: November 09, 2008 at 05:06 AM (#3005605)

The Diamondbacks have a great top 3 rotation and some solid position players, but they really need to add an impact hitter (and if Byrnes becomes a 4th outfielder, so be it), shore up the infield, and another solid relief arm or two.

IOW, Arizona isn't going anywhere anytime soon. They have some nice pieces, but they don't really add up to much.

9. Nate Posted: November 09, 2008 at 06:56 AM (#3005617)

I'm really hoping the D'Backs somehow find a way to bring Dunn back. The team struck out 1,287 times last year, which is just 112 shy of the 2001 Brewers record of 1399. If Dunn came back and whoever the new second basemen ends up being strikeouts out more than Orlando Hudson, they'd give it a real run.

10. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: November 09, 2008 at 12:37 PM (#3005625)

Man, what happened to O-dogs defense? I remember it being great back when he was with Toronto. Age?

11. Walt Davis Posted: November 09, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#3005708)

Thou shalt not take Cesar Cedeno's name in vain.

At ages 21-22, Cedeno put up OPS+s of 162 and 152 while stealing 111 bases just for fun. I still consider him the most talented player I've ever seen -- granted, that promise "vanished" rather quickly.

12. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 09, 2008 at 06:55 PM (#3005714)

Boy, ZiPS is not a fan of Mark Reynolds. Is he the leading candidate to take over 2B duties if Hudson moves on?

13. karkface killah Posted: November 09, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#3005728)

Any chance the Dbacks make an offer to Manny?

14. Marcel Posted: November 09, 2008 at 09:41 PM (#3005769)

I don't think they have the money for Manny. If I'm not mistaken, they consider a 1 year/10 MM contract for RJ to be too expensive to do for next year.

15. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: November 09, 2008 at 11:38 PM (#3005812)

Nobody's downside is Cesar Cedeno unless it's someone already far better than Cesar Cedeno, and Upton isn't.

I didn't understand JDiF's Cedeno comment, anyway. He wrote this:

If not he'll be Cesar Cedeno (free of the Astrodome) which is still pretty good.

Does he mean Cedeno from '82 on?

16. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 10, 2008 at 01:29 AM (#3005861)

Any chance the Dbacks make an offer to Manny?

Manny Alexandar, for sure, if he agrees to manny 2b.

17. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 11, 2008 at 02:05 PM (#3006712)

A 20 year old with some power can run well and has a good eye has a pretty decent nonzero chance to turn into Mickey Mantle.

Only one person in all the history of baseball has turned into Mickey Mantle.

18. Saul Posted: November 20, 2008 at 05:59 AM (#3012869)

It would have been interesting to see a player spotlight on Chris Young. I do not see him getting 100 RBI after getting just 85 in 2008, nor nearly a 50% increase in SB.

19. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 08:32 AM (#3039135)

Chris Young went a couple of months last season without attempting a stolen base. Is there any speculation that he was playing through an injury?

20. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: December 28, 2008 at 04:18 PM (#3039177)

Chris Young went a couple of months last season without attempting a stolen base. Is there any speculation that he was playing through an injury?

Nah, I just think Kirk Gibson messed him up.
CY's sudden inability to steal bases had really nothing to do with injuries and had everything to do with his sudden inability to read pitchers. Maybe he was too busy timing the pitcher according to Gibson's complicated formula and less busy just running...
Honestly, I've never seen a more fidgety and confused base stealer at 1b than CY in 2008

21. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: January 30, 2009 at 11:10 PM (#3064723)

Dan, could we get Garland's projection in AZ? Pretty please?

22. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 30, 2009 at 11:18 PM (#3064730)

I would imagine that it looks a lot like Doug Davis.

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