BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

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1. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 17, 2008 at 11:56 AM (#2985540)

Dan, what would be Peavy's projection in ATL next year?

2. Frisco Cali Posted: October 17, 2008 at 12:42 PM (#2985573)

Will Moylan be healthy to begin the season?

3. flournoy Posted: October 17, 2008 at 12:48 PM (#2985578)

Probably not, but he should be ready by May or so. Hudson probably will not throw a pitch until 2010.

Interesting Cody Johnson projection.

4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:32 PM (#2985619)

"Jeff Francoeur rf 25 .263 .315 .399 156 609 75 160 34 2 15 78 40 117 2 1
Joe Borchard# rf 30 .239 .322 .394 86 226 29 54 9 1 8 32 26 74 3 2"

And a special guest appearance by Joe Borchard as the Ghost of Christmas Future?

If he can't scare Francoeur straight, then I guess nobody can.

5. Crispix Attacks Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2985634)

Barbaro Canizares        1b  29  .274  .323  .406  87 325  33  89 16  0  9  42  23  46  1  0 

Time for the glue factory, I'm afraid.

6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#2985635)

Has Lillibridge's value dried up?

Kinda surprised Frenchy's projections are as good as they are. I predict major shakeup of this roster before opening day.

7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:47 PM (#2985637)

Is Matt Diaz going to be ready by next year?

8. flournoy Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:50 PM (#2985642)

Yeah, Diaz will be ready. He was ready at the end of this year. I'm not really sure what happened to him; he was just awful before he got injured, and then he kept re-injuring himself while rehabbing.

What shakeups do you predict? Unless something fell into my lap, I wouldn't change that much. (And wouldn't plan on competing this year.)

9. JPWF13

Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:51 PM (#2985643)

Has Lillibridge's value dried up?

dried up completely? No, but his year was terrible, he needed at the very least to hold serve or take a step froward, but moved back two spaces-
he now looks like this guy in some respects.

10. rfloh Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2985652)

Kinda surprised Frenchy's projections are as good as they are.

Good? He projects similarly to Ruben Gotay, a bad defensive 2b, but still a 2b, and ThorMan.

11. NJ is feeling better Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:07 PM (#2985662)

Wow...Greg Maddux comp on Jurjjens.

12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:40 PM (#2985695)

What shakeups do you predict? Unless something fell into my lap, I wouldn't change that much. (And wouldn't plan on competing this year.)

Sounds like they're the frontrunners to land Peavy. And there are rumors they'll deal Franceour and Kelly Johnson. You'll probably see them overhaul the rotation.

13. JPWF13

Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2985705)

Kinda surprised Frenchy's projections are as good as they are.

Good? He projects similarly to Ruben Gotay, a bad defensive 2b, but still a 2b, and ThorMan.

he did hit .239/.294/.359 last year, but .263/.315/.399 is below Frenchy's career line of .268/ .312/.434 - and he'll be only 25 next year....

I vaguely recall that before 2008 many were projecting 2008 to be Frenchy's breakout year...
I think he's on the precipice now:
up- Jose Guillen
down- Cory Patterson (without the CF defensive value)

14. Kyle S at work Posted: October 17, 2008 at 04:18 PM (#2985774)

Well that was depressing...

15. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: October 17, 2008 at 04:37 PM (#2985804)

Prado's going to follow the Graffanino/DeRosa career path, isn't he?

16. flournoy Posted: October 17, 2008 at 04:47 PM (#2985810)

That career path would be: Be a utility guy for the Braves and then be offered a chance to start. Suck horribly as a starter before being replaced midseason by somebody ridiculous*. Then be jettisoned by the Braves and have a nice career as a utility guy and occasional starter for other teams.

* - Graffanino was replaced by Keith Lockhart, and DeRosa was replaced by Charles Thomas, with Chipper Jones changing positions.

17. Walt Davis Posted: October 17, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2985959)

Wow...Greg Maddux comp on Jurjjens.

Well, Maddux ages 22-25 was good, not great. I don't thinks ZiPS is projecting many 200+ ERA+s for Jurjjens just yet. :-) The Dierker comp is in some ways more impressive at that age ... but hopefully not prophetic as age 24 is when his arm started falling off.

18. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 18, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#2986137)

It's probably been asked a million times, but do the ZiPS pitching projections take into account that specific team's defense, or are the generic?

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 18, 2008 at 12:23 AM (#2986139)

Rough estimates of team defense. Regressing previous season to mean is actually a pretty good predictor (though it obviously misses the Rays ridiculous improvement).

20. Los Angeles ALBERT F. PUJOLS of Anaheim

Posted: October 18, 2008 at 12:39 AM (#2986144)

What were Kotchman's MLEs? Man, talk about falling short of expectation.

21. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 18, 2008 at 01:07 AM (#2986149)

Thanks Dan.

22. John DiFool2 Posted: October 18, 2008 at 04:44 PM (#2986334)

Francouer likely has as much future volatility in his performance as anyone. He could continue down the erratic Shawon Dunston path for another decade, or he could develop like Sammy Sosa (leaving aside the whys and wherefores in Sammy's specific case), or he could perform a Ben Grieve off the deep end and wash out in a few more years. Frankly I have no idea which way he will go, but whichever way it does go it won't be remotely close to the above projection.

23. Jose Canusee Posted: October 22, 2008 at 09:38 PM (#2992155)

Hampton comes alive!
contract aside, if he just likes to play it would be interesting to see him play the utility bat/garbage P role better than Brooks Kieschnick did.

24. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:08 PM (#2993389)

I think he's on the precipice now:
up- Jose Guillen
down- Cory Patterson (without the CF defensive value)

There's down from where he is now?

a little shallow in the outfield.

They don't have a single outfielder that projects to hit like an average centerfielder. That's not shallow, the pool is empty.

That Hanson projection seems very pessimistic.

25. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:47 PM (#2993407)

I wonder what the Braves are going to do with Prado and Kelly Johnson. Would Prado be someone the Padres would be interested in as part of the return for Peavy?

The Braves outfield looks really bad right now.

26. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:18 PM (#2993417)

I hope someone buys the myth that Prado is a legit 2B and overpays for him.
those are some shitty projections for the prospects. Schafer worse than Francoeur, Hanson just craptastic...
And I am surprised by the Yunel projection. He flashed some power once his shoulder got better.
Mccann only a 860 OPS ? :(

This team needs a power bat in the worse way possible

27. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: October 24, 2008 at 09:36 AM (#2993798)

Mccann only a 860 OPS ? :(

He's actually projected for an .876 OPS after a .896 in 2008. His relatively poor 2007 season is going to hurt the projection a little bit.

28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 23, 2008 at 04:49 AM (#3014452)

Just for fun, what's the line on Eric Campbell? I think he might go in the Rule 5.

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