Wow, there seems to be a real lack of young talent in the system. It's nice to see DeRosa project so well, but I'm not cheered by the Pie projection -- I'm not surprised or disappointed, I was just hoping that ZiPS would give me a reason to dream of more.

Harden projected to 136 Ks in 95 IP is just insanely good -- is that the best projected K/9 in ZiPS history?

Samardzija is a conundrum but he had a pretty good (short) run at AAA too. It's as if someone sat him down and for the first time said "son, you might want to consider striking some people out and not walking them." Still, his ML success was largely built on 0 HR in his 28 IP which seems unlikely to repeat. Also he gave up 5 UER in his 28 IP which makes his shiny ERA look less impressive.

But ... I'm going to have to take ZiPS off my facebook friends page. It's projecting Soto to hit 382 on-contact. Kendrick, Braun, now Soto ... tsk, tsk. ZiPS and I will have to come up with a bet before the season.

That DeRosa contract is one of the top free-agent contracts in recent memory.

Player Spotlight - Carlos Zambrano

Top Near-Age Comps: Mike Boddicker

Time to trade Zambrano for the top near-age comps to Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling.

Yeah, and a 2.37 ERA projection for Harden is just nuts. ZiPS must not have much built-in regression to the mean...

Yeah, and a 2.37 ERA projection for Harden is just nuts. ZiPS must not have much built-in regression to the mean...

There actually is, but ZiPS is always freaking nuts over Harden.

That DeRosa contract is one of the top free-agent contracts in recent memory.

Just like I said it would be.

(The writer shall not be held liable if the resemblance between that statement and actual history is nonexistent.)

Yeah, and a 2.37 ERA projection for Harden is just nuts. ZiPS must not have much built-in regression to the mean...

Oh, I don't think it's that (though I'm not sure how ZiPS handles lack of playing time) but more that ZiPS has no respect whatsoever for the NL. Still, as I wrote towards the end of the season, Harden is quite possibly the most _talented_ and even _best_ pitcher in the game. He just can't stay healthy (and presumably all those injuries will eventually degrade the talent).

Dan,

Jake Fox stopped catching a few years back. I have no clue why the Cubs website still has him listed as a catcher.

But ... I'm going to have to take ZiPS off my facebook friends page. It's projecting Soto to hit 382 on-contact. Kendrick, Braun, now Soto ... tsk, tsk. ZiPS and I will have to come up with a bet before the season.

Soto was at .379 this year, and was at .474 in 2007. Kendrick and Braun have similarly excellent on-contact rates through their career. What's wrong with expecting that to continue?

What's wrong with expecting that to continue?

There may be nothing wrong with it but almost nobody in MLB history has been able to maintain at that rate. For RHB, I think the list is Jimmie Foxx, Manny Ramirez and Andres Galarraga. Piazza for his career was 367/650. Now the big difference between Soto and Piazza is of course contact rate but even when Soto hits it, I don't think he hits it as well as Piazza. Bonds for his career was 353/719 and Soto's a fine hitter but I don't think Bonds when I look at his swing. Pujols at 376/701 career; Soto projected to 383/678.

Maybe he is that good, but especially for a projection, I'd regress that pretty heavily towards the mean.

Harden's almost like the guys in the old computer baseball games who had great stats in a September callup, and thus a really low injury rating. Someone just needs to go in there and change it!

There may be nothing wrong with it but almost nobody in MLB history has been able to maintain at that rate. For RHB, I think the list is Jimmie Foxx, Manny Ramirez and Andres Galarraga. Piazza for his career was 367/650.

The problem is you're comparing what a player is doing in his prime years and what a player maintained over his career. Would you agree that Carlos Pena hitting 35 home runs in 2009 wouldn't be unreasonable? Only 4 player in history have hit 35 home runs for 18 years, so by that line of reasoning, it's unreasonable to project any individual player to hit 35 home runs.

From 1960-2006, there were 6813 player-seasons of 400 at-bats or more. Bonds .353 on-contact isn't that special - 1437 of those 6813 player-seasons were a .353 on-contact or better or more than a fifth.

I projected a .372 on-contact for Soto in 2008, BP projected a .363. You're far overestimating the short-term regression of on-contact BA and far underestimating the age curve of this ability.

1. Why Tyler Colvin?

2. Derrek Lee Av fielder?

Centerfield options:

Kosuke Fukudome -- .757 OPS, Fair defender -- VERY GOOD

Reed Johnson -- .758 OPS, Average defender -- AVERAGE
Jim Edmonds -- .759 OPS, Average defender -- AVERAGE

Felix Pie -- .720 OPS, Very good defender -- FAIR

The descriptions make it sound like Johnson and Edmonds are the best two (and might be platooned), while Fukudome is worse than either of them and not that different from Pie. Should Fukudome really be FAIR?

2. Derrek Lee Av fielder?

Lee's defensive ratings have been consistently mediocre from all the systems. Remember that the systems don't count the first baseman's ability to receive throws - Derrek's best attribute, IMO.

Free Mike Fontenot! And Micah Hoffpauir!

That's a very nice projection for Marshall. ZiPS has consistently viewed his ERAs as a mirage. Looking at his stats, Marshall's K rate skyrocketed in 2008... 9 fewer Ks than last season in 38 fewer innings!

Also: Dan, could we get a projection on Gaudin as a starter?

Lee's defensive ratings have been consistently mediocre from all the systems. Remember that the systems don't count the first baseman's ability to receive throws - Derrek's best attribute, IMO.

I hope in the future this is something that could be worked into PBP data. It doesn't seem like it would be too difficult to note when a first basemen took a throw below the waist, on a hop or hops, or on a stretch, and made the out.

From 1960-2006, there were 6813 player-seasons of 400 at-bats or more. Bonds .353 on-contact isn't that special - 1437 of those 6813 player-seasons were a .353 on-contact or better or more than a fifth.

And how many players have done it, oh, 3 years in a row?

But I'd love to see work on the aging curve for on-contact numbers. What you're suggesting is you lose this quickly as you age. However that doesn't jive with the traditional notion of "old man skills" where players trade BA (and sometimes Ks) for power. Of course a hitter like Soto has already made that trade pretty much.

And Pecota? The system that predicted Wily Mo Pena was going to be a superstar? :-)

And how many players have done it, oh, 3 years in a row?

Now you're getting into the Gambler's Fallacy.

But I'd love to see work on the aging curve for on-contact numbers.


Most of my work's with BABIP, not on-contact, simply because when I looked at the issue, I found that on-contact provided no useful predictive information that wasn't found elsewhere.

What I'm talking about is you're comparing 15-20 years of a player's career to a single, prime season of an excellent player's career.

I await the Walt Davis On-Contact projection system. It's all well and good that you don't think Howie or Geovany can sustain their on contact batting average, but you never tell us what we should expect them to hit.

Wellington Castillo is probably my new favorite name in baseball. Can't wait til he gets called up.

I'm surprised that Derrek Lee projects for such little power, even in the optimistic forecast. My guess is that if he has an especially good year it's more likely to include 35-40 homers than a .330 batting average.

Thing is Soto really sucked up through 2006, then exploded at both AAA and with the Cubs. After 2006 I had him projected at 241/311/348, which was virtually unchanged for 4 seasons. After 2007 jumped to 272/339/436, and continued to improve to 277/345/460 after 2008. In two seasons his projections for BABIP have jumped 10% from 295 to 327, and his HR% doubled from 2.4 to 4.9.

I expect most of the Cubs offense to regress. They still probably lead the NL in wins because of defense and pitching but they are more of a 92-93 win team that had a bunch of overachievers than a true 97 win team.

Initial thoughts, then I'll read the comments...

Great projection for Soto, I like seeing that. Pretty good projection for DeRosa, coming off such a career year. I think I'm in favor of a Fukudome/Johnson platoon in CF and acquiring a real RF. Not sure who that would be. Hoffpaiur should replace Ward on the bench, and he can spell Lee more often (Lee's optimistic project is 21HRs? Ouch, I like him be he's miscast as a 3 hitter). The Cubs want to bring back Blanco as a backup C, but Hill would be ok in that role (if Soto were to get hurt, C would be a HUGE hole). The Cubs could use an upgrade at SS, but I think Theriot's going to have that job to start; I'd rather see him and Fontenot as the backup IF (but Fontenot should take some of the PT from DeRosa). So I guess that means I see an upgrade coming in RF, a decline in CF (I doubt the CF platoon puts up the same numbers TOFU did), a decline at SS and 2b, and the other positions about the same.

I read in the Trib yesterday the Cubs aren't that optimistic on resigning Dempster, which is fine by me. I'd love to see them get Peavy, but they don't have the prospects. I hope they give Hill a chance to bounce back, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him on another team (I'll be disappointed when that happens, but not in the Cubs). I'd love to see them dump Marquis this year, but he's probably hanging around. I see Marshall getting a spot. That leaves one hole in the top 5 (hopefully a top 3 type) and a need for a quality swing man/6th type (like Marshall was this season; maybe they let Gaudin try starting?). I assume they'll get a deal done with Wood, so the bullpen top 2 should be back. Everything after that is up in the air. There's a lot of arms around, so I don't want to see Hendry sign any big names to replace Howry (and Eyre's deal). Maybe there's a couple of veteran guys they can take chances on.

They are still a good team. I don't know if I buy the mainstream "can't win in the playoffs" team, but I don't want to see the same team again next year. I trust Hendry, to an extent. I wonder how the sale affects his spending this year (I know they've already said no big time FAs).

Samardzija is a conundrum but he had a pretty good (short) run at AAA too. It's as if someone sat him down and for the first time said "son, you might want to consider striking some people out and not walking them." Still, his ML success was largely built on 0 HR in his 28 IP which seems unlikely to repeat. Also he gave up 5 UER in his 28 IP which makes his shiny ERA look less impressive.

I'd like to see them keep him in the pen, but he's still learning how to pitch. I see one plus pitch, and potential for 2 others.

I'm surprised that Derrek Lee projects for such little power, even in the optimistic forecast. My guess is that if he has an especially good year it's more likely to include 35-40 homers than a .330 batting average.

And I completely disagree. He doesn't have much of an uppercut swing, and his power has completely disappeared after the wrist injury. He makes solid contact and hits the ball hard (part of the reason he had so many goddamned DPs this year), but it doesn't elevate. He had that 1 monster power year, but that's it. He is slowing down significantly (he barely attempts steals these days), so he's not going to beat many hits out.

As for his defense, I feel like he had a bad defensive year. I'm not sure if it's a decline, or it was a slump. But I'm ok with all the "average" ratings he's been getting.

I should really start a blog post about the Cubs offseason plans, but I'm just going to keep sticking stuff in here for now (easier to revisit later in the year here).

From one of Rosenthal's articles:

The Cubs can replace Wood, 31, with Carlos Marmol, who is five years younger, healthier and possibly even better. Jeff Szamardzija and Kevin Hart would be among the internal possibilities to replace Marmol, and the team always could dip into the free-agent market for setup help.

One way or another, the Cubs are going to need to spend on pitching, either by re-signing Dempster and Wood or by replacing them. Thus, they might be unable to afford free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu, who earned $16 million last season

I'm 100% ok with Dempster getting overpaid elsewhere. I'd love to see the Cubs keep Wood, but if he wants the money elsewhere he's earned.

I like the idea of the Cubs pursueing Bobby Abreu, but I liked 2004 Abreu a lot more. But he would be a good fit on this this team.

Every time I see the name "Daryle" Ward, I think of the Mark McKinney character on The Kids in the Hall.

15. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 02, 2008 at 11:31 AM (#3001289)

Also: Dan, could we get a projection on Gaudin as a starter?

Didn't know they were trying to make Samardzija a starter, seems like starting Gaudin and even Lieber might be safer on the bullpen health...or maybe they need the swingmen out of the rotation for the 1/3 of the time Samardzija doesn't get out of the 2nd.

All you need to know about Harden and small sample sizes:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/statistics/2003/10301.shtml
See the 2 names at the bottom for 2003 Midland (AA)-
Blanton 21.2 IP 11 H 5 BB 20 K 0.74 WHIP pales in comparison to
Harden 13 IP 0H 0 BB 17K 0.00 WHIP

Any opinions on the Peavy rumors? Sounds like Hendry's aiming for another Harden/Ramirez trash for treasure, and it might actually work again.

What's the latest you're read, SSR? The only thing I've seen is a Cubs offer of Pie/Cedeno/various other arms. Not sure that's enough, and Atlanta can easily top that.

Lieber might be safer on the bullpen health

Pretty sure he's going to retire.

Robothal says it's Cubs or Braves. Braves offer seems to be centered on Escobar/Reyes, Cubs would be on Pie/Marshall(my speculation)

I'd like to get it done without Vitters if possible. Welington Castillo's pretty expendable. I wouldn't mind dumping Colvin or Tony Thomas before they lose all value. San Diego would probably be a good place for Rich Hill to get his head on straight.

There's definitely a (Vitters-less)combo out there that does it for the Cubs over an Escobar/Reyes deal, but if the Braves really want to do it, they'll get him. I just don't think the Braves are that into making the deal.

Padres seem to be holding out for Hanson from the Braves. Peavy is complicating things by saying he won't accept a trade to the Braves if Escobar is going the other way. He doesn't want the team he's going to to be harmed on the major league level. Padres may be targeting Samardzija, though his NTC will probably complicate things.

I expect most of the Cubs offense to regress. They still probably lead the NL in wins because of defense and pitching but they are more of a 92-93 win team that had a bunch of overachievers than a true 97 win team

Isn't this true for most 97 win teams? That they have some guys overachieve? Obviously not for every 97 win team, but I bet the majority of them. Usually when you win 97 games it means you have a lot of things go right, in terms of players staying healthy, or hitting to their 90th% projection.

Bruce Levine expects it to be done by Monday to Atlanta or Chicago. Cubs package looks like Pie/Cedeno/Atkins/Hill or Marshall

Apparently they really like Mitch Atkins...

Pie/Cedeno/Atkins/Hill

I'd do that no question. Same with subbing Marshall for Hill.

Apparently they really like Mitch Atkins...

Theres a fair amount to like there. Hes a good hitter too

Harden should have more than 17 GS in 2009. I think his injury history is in the past, and he'll have a great season. Wow, ZiPS predicts 135 Ks in 95 innings pitched. Based on that, do you think he'd have around 260 Ks in 200 IP?

From Rotoworld:

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playernews.aspx?sport=MLB&rwr=1

The Chicago Sun Times reports that Rich Harden has a small tear in his shoulder joint, calling it "just severe enough that some players might seek surgery but slight enough to be in a range often treated effectively with a strengthening program."

The report comes after pitching coach Larry Rothschild raised concerns about Harden's status by saying Saturday during a fan gathering that "he's not close to throwing off a mound yet" and "there's some issues there, no question.'' Harden did his best to quiet any concerns, saying: 'I'm on a set program, and I'm not behind at all. 'I'm right on schedule and feeling great. I'll be ready for the start of the season for sure. There's no doubt in my mind. Nobody has any doubts whether I'll be ready or not. I will.''

Pie may turn out to be the second coming of Corey Patterson, but talk about trading low. Was Pie really the player that held up the acquisition of Brian Roberts last year? Olson and Williamson instead of Roberts? Good grief...

Dan,

I was wondering if you could give a projection for Kevin Gregg. It appears as if he wasn't with the Cubs when you did their projections, but had been traded by the time you got to the Marlins...leaving Gregg without a projection!

Thanks!

-Jason