Wow, the Reds found a starting CF worse than Norris Hopper.

especially Jay Bruce who ZiPS absolutely loves.

ZiPS apparently has a lower love threshhold than I do ... or it tosses it around somewhat indiscriminately. Wait, I do that too.

Anyway, not that there's anything wrong with a 115 OPS+ at age 22 but I was expecting LOVE.

And did Aaron Harang run over ZiPS's dog or something? (I know, it's the HR rate)

Kerry Wood, Jim Maloney, Jose DeLeon

So you're saying his arm is about to fall off. :-)

No Yonder Alonso?

Javier Valentin signed a minor league deal with Washington.

I agree with Walt, was expecting more LOVE from Bruce in terms of OPS+, but looking more closely I guess that 37 HR is pretty damn impressive. Not many players hit more than that last year and I suspect there aren't that many that ZiPS is predicting to do so this year. Top 5 or so in HRs at age 22 would be some LOVE.

Didn't the Reds ship Homer Bailey out of town in a challenge trade with someone - or am I just having visions of the future?

Didn't the Reds ship Homer Bailey out of town in a challenge trade with someone - or am I just having visions of the future?

It was reported he'd been traded for Jermaine Dye, but it wasn't so!

How will Owings hit?

I'll take the over on Chris Dickerson. He can really hit the righties now, so, if the Dustbag limits his exposure to mean old lefties, he'll ops+ over 100. Oh, and, he has spent most of his career in centerfield, so, there's reason 1,009,206 that it was a waste for the Reds to sign Taveras

You know, if there ever was a team who's needs fit the market, and did nothing to exploit it, this is it.

Put a good bat, bad D OF on this team, and they have a shot.

Re 9: Gomes? Oh, _good_ bat. Well, yeah.

Yeah, Adam Dunn fits like a glove. :) The RH bat of Ramirez would look extra tasty, wouldn't it? Ramirez would make them a real contender in their division, dontcha think?

I hope to go to a game at GABP this summer -- we have a family reunion in the area and I'm going to hook up with one of my cousins. I want to do it because then I can be one of a select few to have gone to a game at Crosley Field and GABP but not Riverfront.

I believe Belisle is with Colorado now.

I'd like to see them add a good-fielding SS (eg, Cabrera) as well as the an offensive corner OF with bad defense. Jerry Hairston is a really bad Plan A for SS.

I'd like to see them add a good-fielding SS (eg, Cabrera) as well as the an offensive corner OF with bad defense. Jerry Hairston is a really bad Plan A for SS.

That makes sense too.

Wow, 37 HR for Bruuuuuuce? Damn!

Edwin Encarnacion RNG: Fr

Is the standard for being fair just really low? I thought Encarnacion was pretty awful at third.

Depending on exactly what defensive metrics Dan is using (I think that he's said in the past that he uses a composite), its possible that Keppinger historically bad defense at SS might be making Encarnacion look a bit better. Still, no matter what the methodology, setting up five discrete tiers is inexact science at best (he only uses it because that's how Tippett set up DMB, which was the original motivation for doing these projections...). I'm willing to be that Encarnacion is closer to the "Poor" side of "Fair" than the "Average" side of "Fair."

That line up is scary bad. Should have an above average pitching staff though. And, nothing screams all-star more than a slug% heavy 94 OPS+.

You know, if there ever was a team who's needs fit the market, and did nothing to exploit it, this is it.

Put a good bat, bad D OF on this team, and they have a shot.

Yep. For the few remaining people such as myself who root for the Reds, it has been frustrating. I suggested that the Reds take a shot at Furcal. I have also suggested that they try for Hudson with Phillips going to SS. OCabrera as noted would be reasonable as well. Add Cabrera and Abreu, use Dickerson or Taveras as the 4th OF, and maybe they can get into the scrum.

As it is now, their goal appears to be to get through the schedule with a low payroll.

Taking the conservative approach, not predicting that Willy Tavares will have more steals than runs scored again.

That line up is scary bad

I disagree:

C - Average
1b- Average
2b- Average
3b- Very Good
ss- Average
of- Very Good
of- Average
of- Fair

Scarily average maybe?

Yea, the Reds look pretty average to me. 79-83 wins hooray!

of- Very Good
of- Average
of- Fair

The player who will be starting at CF is in the "Poor" quintile.

Also, I believe these quintiles are positional averages. An exactly average starter will give up some ABs to a backup who is worse. The aggregate will be below average performance from that position.

Very bullish on Bruce hitting 30+ HR and having a good offensive year. Let's hope so.

Put a good RH bat in between Votto and Bruce, and the lineup transforms. The Reds roster doesn't look as bad as they're going to perform this year. The problem is, the best team will never be on the field in the right spots. Currently, isn't this the best:

C Hernandez
1b Votto
2b Keppinger
SS Phillips
3b Edwin
RF Bruce
CF Dicerkson vs R, Taveras vs L
LF ?? (go sign Dunn/Manny, but seriously: Nix/Ghomes)

Too bad Keppinger and Harriston will be playing 150+ games at SS, Taveras will be getting 550-600 PA in CF (should be around 200 tops), and if Edwin starts off the year in a slump, look for Kepp to move there and Edwin to be bench.

It's frustrating as a Reds fan, to see obvious holes on the team (corner OF preferably RH, a SS with average defense, and some sort of CF), and see them bring in people like Taveras, Ghomes, Rhodes, etc. I would have been so happy if the Reds brought in Burrell to play LF, OCabrera to play SS (or Hudson to play 2b, phillips move to SS), and Taveras to be no where near cincinnati.

Also on Bruce, a 115 OPS+ from a corner OF doesn't say "VERY GOOD" to me, but maybe that's just semantics.

"Scarily average maybe?"

I think it looks more like

VG - RF, 3b
A - C, 1b, 2b, LF (Gomes/Nix)
F - SS (Gonzalez, right? Maybe Keppinger)
P - CF

The road scoring was around 4.05 r/g last year (the Nats were last at 4.01 r/g). That should go up despite the lost of Dunn's 450 PAs, because Patterson and Bako were so terrible. Yeah, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it'll be fringe average.

Laynce Nix has had a total of 91 at-bats in the last three seasons, and he sucks. I'll believe that he gets a few hundred at-bats when I see it.

An exactly average starter will give up some ABs to a backup who is worse.

Doesn't that happen on every team? I don't see how this affects the Reds more than the Rockies or Astros or Brewers for example.

The player who will be starting at CF is in the "Poor" quintile

I'm busted. I was fudging a bit by posting that way. My general point stands, though. This still projects as a very average lineup.

The big problem that I see is that Votto is the only guy that gets on base. There might be a lot of solo homeruns this year in Cincinnati.

The big problem that I see is that Votto is the only guy that gets on base. There might be a lot of solo homeruns this year in Cincinnati.

Exactly. And I have a feeling that Baker will bat Taveras, Phillips 1-2 in front of Votto. Votto could hit 3rd with a .295/.390/.530, hit 32 HR, and have only 58 RBI. That will only give ammunition for Marty and Jeff to bash Votto and praise Taveras.

I can't wait till to root for the 2009 cincinnati reds.

This still projects as a very average lineup.

I don't agree. The only way to tell if it projects as a very average lineup, is to compare it to how the other 15 National League teams project. I didn't run through all of them, but I ran through most, and the Reds come out near the bottom.

The average team projects, on average, as better than average. That's the first and probably last time I'm ever using the word average three times in a 10 word sentence...

Doesn't that happen on every team? I don't see how this affects the Reds more than the Rockies or Astros or Brewers for example.

Yes, it affects everyone.

I'm saying that more than half the teams are going to project to be above average if you just look at their starters in relation to the league production at a position.

For example: out of the 24 teams with finished projections only two (the Marlins & Phillies) don't have a catcher on their roster who projects to be at least in the average quintile.

The big problem that I see is that Votto is the only guy that gets on base. There might be a lot of solo homeruns this year in Cincinnati.

Yeah, well, that's your prototypical Dusty Baker offense. Unclog the bases with home runs, but don't risk clogging them with walks in the first place.

If Votto's "the only guy who gets on base", and he's projected to have a .353 OBP, you have to add Encarnacion to that group of "guys who get on base".

Either way, if the Reds spend most of the season with those two guys as their top OBP guys, they're in serious trouble offensively.

I actually base the percentiles on how starters did offensively in the last 5 years relative to league.

Encarnacion was right on the border of poor/fair, range-wise. A lot of his badness is errors, which I separate from range for DMB purposes.

I actually base the percentiles on how starters did offensively in the last 5 years relative to league.

Then I guess I stand corrected.

I'm going to hook up with one of my cousins.

You're from the Kentucky side I'm guessing. :-)

Encarnacion was right on the border of poor/fair, range-wise. A lot of his badness is errors, which I separate from range for DMB purposes.

Thanks, Dan. Wasn't aware of the errors thing.

For example: out of the 24 teams with finished projections only two (the Marlins & Phillies) don't have a catcher on their roster who projects to be at least in the average quintile.

And then there's all the players who are forecast as above-average at some position like center field or shortstop, but not as good at the position they will actually be playing.

With Bruce and Dickerson in the outfield, do the Reds need more cowbell?

I'm going to hook up with one of my cousins.

You're from the Kentucky side I'm guessing. :-)
Boy, I better be more careful about what I type. For the record, we have Indiana and Ohio roots but no KY.

Juan Francisco looks like he's ready to be Jeff Francoeur right now.

What, no detailed breakdown of one of the great, all-or-nothing hitting, bad defensing, CoCo Crisp pounding sluggers of our time, Jonny Gomes?

Is that Daryl Thompson home run rate for real?

Is that Daryl Thompson home run rate for real?


Yes. He was better in 2008, but his 2007 home run rate in the minors was a lot higher. 19 in 105 innings in the Florida State League was absolutely horrific - he actually allowed a quarter of the team's home runs in only 9% of the innings!

SS (Gonzalez, right?

That's the plan. If he's healthy, he's probably going to be OK there. If he doesn't stay healthy...maybe Valaika will be ready to fill, although I wouldn't hold my breath.

I wouldn't try, at this stage, to move Phillips back to SS; he has never played there regularly since his minor league days seven years ago, and I don't think I'd want to mess one of my probable top hitters.

Yes. He was better in 2008, but his 2007 home run rate in the minors was a lot higher. 19 in 105 innings in the Florida State League was absolutely horrific - he actually allowed a quarter of the team's home runs in only 9% of the innings!

Yeah, but it wasn't because he was a bad pitcher. He's got great control and can miss some bats. It was just a case of random HR/FB% variation IMO.

Just like Aaron Harang. If he strikes out 184 in 204 innings I have a hard time seeing him give up that many homers.

Just like Aaron Harang. If he strikes out 184 in 204 innings I have a hard time seeing him give up that many homers.

Well, he K'd 216 in 234 and gave up 28; and he K'd 218 in 232 and gave up 28; and he K'd 153 in 184 and gave up 35. I don't see why 32 in 204 IP with 184 K isn't a perfectly reasonable estimate. 35 in 184 was Miltonesque.

Well, he K'd 216 in 234 and gave up 28; and he K'd 218 in 232 and gave up 28; and he K'd 153 in 184 and gave up 35. I don't see why 32 in 204 IP with 184 K isn't a perfectly reasonable estimate. 35 in 184 was Miltonesque.

Yep, it wasn't Harangesque. All of those peripherals are in line with earlier in his career when he was posting 3.7 ERAs with a worse defense--except for the home run rate. I'll put my money on last year's HR/FB% being a fluke. I expect another 4.00 ERA or lower from Harang in 2009.

Thank you, Szym, for these projections, even if they are depressing.

I think Walt and Co. overreacted to the horrible outfield defense witnessed the past few years resulting in this potentially odd configuration.

I also think this is the year that Weathers collapses. His "fastball" is maybe 88 mph and he LIVES by throwing his slider to clip the outsider corner. And if he goes it's a ripple effect across the bullpen because already one can see that Dusty loves the guy.

Even with the bad year last season in Colorado Willy Taveras is a .283 career hitter. I realize it's an empty .283, but you get different opinions of his defense, which is where a player like Taveras has to excel. Willy has a career OBP of .331, so ZIPS has him floundering in his age 27 season. He probably is a 4th or 5th OF/pinch runner type, but I remember last year in this space it was Keppinger who was the latest flavor of the month, with some even suggesting he should be the primary 2B over Phillips.

I realize Keppinger has nothing to do with Taveras, but things get out of context in a hurry around here sometimes. Plus, Keppinger's ZIPS in 2009 sure looks a lot different from his 2008. One year changed it THAT much? Funny what a .657 OPS season spread out over 459 AB's will do to a ZIPS projection on a player that had been passed around by several organizations before last year ever transpired.

He was a utility player a year ago as well. His ZIPS look Taveras-like now too, or close enough to argue it. Plus, I doubt his defense is as good at ss-2b as Taveras' is in CF, although it might be ok at 3B. Taveras may blow, and maybe Cincy would have been better off playing Bruce in CF, but at some point you have to catch the freaking ball. Cincy was 29th in DER last season, so it's not just the park. HR's are going to happen in that park. That's just the way it is. It might help if the runners on when it happens are cut down on a little...To me Taveras isn't the problem as much as scoring runs from positions on the diamond where that needs to happen. It would be great for the Reds if they had someone better than Taveras in CF, but there are only so many Beltran's around. What the Reds really need is a LF who can mash...

The Reds need a lot of things.

Even with the bad year last season in Colorado Willy Taveras is a .283 career hitter. I realize it's an empty .283, but you get different opinions of his defense, which is where a player like Taveras has to excel. Willy has a career OBP of .331, so ZIPS has him floundering in his age 27 season. He probably is a 4th or 5th OF/pinch runner type, but I remember last year in this space it was Keppinger who was the latest flavor of the month, with some even suggesting he should be the primary 2B over Phillips.


You're overlooking the injury issue. There's always the possibility that it's a coincidence, but it does seem odd that the second the league figured him out was exactly when he returned from a broken kneecap in only a month.

Didn't mean to downplay Keppinger's injury last season. I agree actually, although I still see Keppinger as more of a super utility type. He's a valuable bench player. More valuable than a lot of other bench players if he can pick the ball up at an up the middle spot on the infield, and 3B as well.

You're overlooking the injury issue. There's always the possibility that it's a coincidence, but it does seem odd that the second the league figured him out was exactly when he returned from a broken kneecap in only a month.

It's also possible that Keppinger has always been exactly the player he was last year, except for one 145 PA stretch in '07.

To clear up my previous post:

Keppinger, during that stretch (BA/OBP/SLG): .386/.447/.591

Keppinger '07, except that stretch: .272/.344/.351
Keppinger's entire career, except that stretch: .270/.315/.356
Keppinger '08: .266/.310/.346

The only stat that stands out is his OBP in '07.

Except that Keppinger wasn't consistent in '08 - he was good at the beginning of the season, and pretty much worthless as a hitter during the second half. I don't know that you learn that much about Keppinger by lumping them together.

But taken as a whole, his '08 is as close to exactly like the entire rest of his career (excepting that stretch in '07) as I'd think possible - 4 pts of BA, 5 pts of OBP, 10 pts of SLG.

Playing with the numbers, it only takes turning 3 doubles into outs to make his "rest of career" line .266/.311/.347.

You can hardly simply target and take out a player's best stretch or worst stretch unless you have some specific reason.

I'm saying that the second half of '08 might not be indicative of Keppinger's abilities for a specific reason - he was returning from a broken kneecap and very quickly.

I can't see many reasons for unilaterally taking out a player's best stretch unless they were cheating somehow.

Overall, Keppinger's major and minor translation lines combined:

2004: 298/350/374
2005: 307/347/414
2006: 294/347/362
2007: 317/375/432
2008: 274/319/359

The only "reason" I have is that it's so far out of whack compared to the rest of his career. Hey, it's arbitrary, but it's there.

Many a Cinci fan was pretty excited about Keppinger after '07; as noted above, there was talk of shopping BP on these very pages. When I looked at the time, I saw a dime-a-dozen player with an incredible hot streak to pump up his numbers. When last year was such a disaster, I actually looked at the numbers and saw what I posted above.

Kepp, like every player, is what his entire career says he is; that 145 PA is certainly part of it. It's just so far out of whack, though, that it makes me wonder if it was simply a hot streak.

Overall, Keppinger's major and minor translation lines combined:

As a rebuttal (and a Cinci fan), I offer just 2 words (and links): Brandon Larson.

The only "reason" I have is that it's so far out of whack compared to the rest of his career. Hey, it's arbitrary, but it's there.


And his .500 OPS stretch wasn't out of whack?

As a rebuttal (and a Cinci fan), I offer just 2 words (and links): Brandon Larson.


I'm not sure what that proves. Larson's two half-seasons in 2002 and 2003 in the minors turned out to be rather fluky and he hit on the low-end in a short-time. It's not like major league hitters never return to sucking (I have Larson's 2001 as 226/259/382 and his 2006 (only season he got much playing time again) as 240/292/403. Not to mention that, he injured his hand, his wrist, his elbow, and his toe during that time.

simply a hot streak.

Hot streaks should effect how you'll project a player too. Yes, Kep looked much more promising last year, but a broken knee cap will do that to you. The suggestion last year was to trade Phillips for something valuable (since we recognized that he's valuable) and play Kep at 2B. That still looks like a decent idea. (Or maybe slide Phillips over to SS and trade Sea Bass.) As you pointed out, this team needs a corner outfielder like nothing else, and Phillips could probably bring one of those. (Of course, as I guess you meant, so could shipping a few bucks Adam Dunn's way.) If only Dorn could take some more walks...

Dan:

I should have made my point clear: I don't buy Kepp's translated lines as anything more than those of other AAAA players.