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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, November 28, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians
The Indians are now at the crossroads. With Sabathia gone, Hafner's career going the wrong way this year, and Carmona being injured (hip) and going and flip-flopping his 2/1 K/BB ratio, the Indians no longer have the luxury of more or less standing pat. At this point, the team simply doesn't have enough "now" talent to compete in 2009 and probably not enough "later" talent to compete in 2011. It'll probably be another year before Matt LaPorta is ready to be a real plus in the majors and a couple more for Mills and others. Yet the team has holes that need to be filled now if they are to compete in 2009.
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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Victor Martinez# c 30 .293 .366 .447 115 430 56 126 27 0 13 66 48 59 0 0 113 Av
VERY GOOD
Kelly Shoppach c 29 .246 .322 .465 93 284 45 70 20 0 14 50 27 102 0 0 105 Av
FAIR
Chris Gimenez c 26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3 84 Fr
Carlos Santana# c 23 .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 5 5 81 Fr
POOR
Wyatt Toregas c 26 .236 .299 .360 94 314 31 74 15 0 8 39 25 59 1 1 73 Av
Sal Fasano c 37 .207 .277 .300 48 150 13 31 5 0 3 16 7 42 0 0 52 Fr
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FIRST BASEMEN/DESIGNATED HITTERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Travis Hafner* dh 32 .261 .378 .469 105 371 58 97 21 1 18 66 65 88 0 0 122
AVERAGE
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Victor Martinez# c 30 .293 .366 .447 115 430 56 126 27 0 13 66 48 59 0 0 113 Fr
FAIR
Ryan Garko 1b 28 .267 .347 .419 134 468 55 125 24 1 15 68 42 90 1 0 101 Fr
Matt LaPorta rf 24 .241 .312 .435 108 407 52 98 20 1 19 67 33 78 2 0 95 Fr
POOR
Jordan Brown* 1b 25 .268 .326 .391 120 473 57 127 26 1 10 60 37 67 6 2 88 Av
Beau Mills* 1b 22 .261 .315 .404 123 495 54 129 24 1 15 69 34 94 2 3 88 Av
Morgan Ensberg 3b 33 .218 .336 .366 98 284 42 62 12 0 10 39 49 73 1 2 86 Av
Chris Gimenez c 26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3 84 Fr
Michael Aubrey* 1b 27 .252 .296 .395 75 294 29 74 15 0 9 40 16 43 0 0 80 Av
Michael Brantley* cf 22 .257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 29 10 70 AV
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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
FAIR
Asdrubal Cabrera# 2b 23 .266 .336 .391 152 542 83 144 30 1 12 70 55 94 2 6 91 Av
POOR
Jamey Carroll 2b 35 .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 5 4 73 Vg
Josh Barfield 2b 26 .253 .291 .355 121 431 51 109 22 2 6 48 21 81 13 5 70 Av
Andy Gonzalez 2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4 68 Fr
Josh Rodriguez ss 24 .220 .284 .322 128 509 59 112 18 2 10 56 46 105 16 7 60 Av
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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
POOR
Beau Mills* 1b 22 .261 .315 .404 123 495 54 129 24 1 15 69 34 94 2 3 88 Fr
Morgan Ensberg 3b 33 .218 .336 .366 98 284 42 62 12 0 10 39 49 73 1 2 86 Av
Chris Gimenez c 26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3 84 Fr
Carlos Santana# c 23 .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 5 5 81 Pr
Jamey Carroll 2b 35 .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 5 4 73 Av
Andy Marte 3b 25 .237 .280 .380 101 329 33 78 15 1 10 43 18 63 2 1 72 Vg
Andy Gonzalez 2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4 68 Fr
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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Jhonny Peralta ss 27 .267 .333 .440 149 573 92 153 33 3 20 89 55 136 1 2 102 Fr
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Asdrubal Cabrera# 2b 23 .266 .336 .391 152 542 83 144 30 1 12 70 55 94 2 6 91 Av
POOR
Jamey Carroll 2b 35 .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 5 4 73 Fr
Andy Gonzalez 2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4 68 Fr
Josh Rodriguez ss 24 .220 .284 .322 128 509 59 112 18 2 10 56 46 105 16 7 60 Fr
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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF
AVERAGE
Shin-Soo Choo* rf 26 .282 .364 .456 118 412 68 116 27 3 13 64 50 94 12 6 115 Fr Fr
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FAIR
Ben Francisco lf 27 .265 .327 .420 123 457 60 121 27 1 14 66 39 88 12 5 96 Vg Vg
Matt LaPorta rf 24 .241 .312 .435 108 407 52 98 20 1 19 67 33 78 2 0 95 Fr Pr
POOR
Todd Linden# lf 29 .249 .339 .392 99 273 36 68 13 1 8 37 33 79 2 1 92 Av Vg
David Dellucci* lf 35 .252 .326 .413 93 254 36 64 13 2 8 37 23 59 1 1 94 Pr Pr
Franklin Gutierrez rf 26 .258 .321 .400 119 380 57 98 23 2 9 51 31 86 9 4 89 Vg Ex
Chris Gimenez c 26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3 84 Fr Fr
Carlos Santana# c 23 .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 5 5 81 Fr
Jason Cooper* lf 28 .226 .307 .370 101 332 40 75 17 2 9 43 36 85 4 2 78 Av Av
Nicholas Weglarz* lf 21 .232 .305 .369 121 461 50 107 19 1 14 61 45 93 5 3 77 Fr Fr
Trevor Crowe# lf 25 .242 .307 .357 110 454 69 110 24 2 8 53 40 79 24 7 75 Vg Vg
Michael Brantley* cf 22 .257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 29 10 70 Vg
Andy Gonzalez 2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4 68 Av Av
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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Grady Sizemore* cf 26 .281 .383 .515 159 637 117 179 41 6 32 122 93 139 30 7 134 Vg
AVERAGE
Ben Francisco lf 27 .265 .327 .420 123 457 60 121 27 1 14 66 39 88 12 5 96 Pr
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Franklin Gutierrez rf 26 .258 .321 .400 119 380 57 98 23 2 9 51 31 86 9 4 89 Av
POOR
Trevor Crowe# lf 25 .242 .307 .357 110 454 69 110 24 2 8 53 40 79 24 7 75 Av
Michael Brantley* cf 22 .257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 29 10 70 Fr
Andy Gonzalez 2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4 68 Fr
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Cliff Lee* 30 3.68 14 9 30 30 198.0 204 81 18 43 142 123
Fausto Carmona 25 4.06 13 9 29 29 173.0 177 78 11 69 97 112
MIDDLE THIRD
Adam Miller 24 4.40 3 2 12 8 45.0 48 22 3 21 29 103
Jake Westbrook 31 4.42 6 6 18 18 110.0 122 54 9 37 58 103
Scott Lewis* 25 4.46 7 7 25 24 123.0 134 61 14 33 76 102
Aaron Laffey* 24 4.53 11 11 30 30 171.0 195 86 16 51 86 100
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Anthony Reyes 27 4.79 5 5 20 16 94.0 100 50 14 31 67 95
David Huff* 24 4.84 5 6 19 18 93.0 103 50 14 24 62 94
Jeremy Sowers* 26 4.87 8 10 29 29 170.0 192 92 20 52 85 93
BOTTOM THIRD
Matt Ginter 31 5.47 5 8 23 16 97.0 119 59 13 28 48 83
Hector Rondon 21 5.49 7 11 28 28 136.0 159 83 22 49 69 83
Zach Jackson* 26 5.77 6 10 32 22 142.0 175 91 18 53 67 79
John Halama* 37 6.00 3 6 15 9 66.0 85 44 12 17 23 76
Chuck Lofgren* 23 6.39 4 10 29 21 114.0 135 81 19 74 66 71
Jeff Harris 34 6.99 2 6 19 11 76.0 100 59 20 23 34 65
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Rafael Perez* 27 3.30 5 2 69 0 79.0 72 29 6 28 76 137
MIDDLE THIRD
Rafael Betancourt 34 3.80 4 2 60 0 64.0 61 27 9 17 58 119
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Jensen Lewis 25 4.34 3 3 63 0 83.0 85 40 10 37 67 105
BOTTOM THIRD
Masahide Kobayashi 35 4.66 4 5 58 0 58.0 65 30 7 14 33 97
Rich Rundles* 28 4.71 3 4 60 0 63.0 67 33 5 33 40 96
Tom Mastny 28 4.71 4 4 49 1 63.0 65 33 6 33 56 96
Brendan Donnelly 37 4.71 1 1 24 0 21.0 23 11 2 8 13 96
Tony Sipp* 25 4.86 3 3 28 6 63.0 62 34 10 28 58 93
Edward Mujica 25 4.92 3 3 49 0 64.0 71 35 8 19 44 92
Joe Borowski 38 4.95 3 3 41 0 40.0 45 22 5 12 30 92
Jonathan Meloan 24 4.97 6 8 45 12 105.0 107 58 12 61 78 92
Juan Rincon 30 5.05 3 3 62 0 66.0 72 37 8 29 53 90
Jeff Stevens 25 5.12 4 6 44 0 65.0 66 37 11 32 62 89
Rick Bauer 32 5.79 1 2 43 1 56.0 62 36 8 31 40 78
Brian Slocum 28 5.91 3 5 23 10 67.0 76 44 11 37 48 77
Scott Elarton 33 6.08 3 5 21 10 71.0 82 48 14 33 39 75
* - Throws Left
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Player Spotlight - Ryan Garko
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .267 .347 .419 134 468 55 125 24 1 15 68 42 90 1 0 101
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Craig Wilson, Mike Cervenak
Offense %
STAR 7
AVG 29
REP LV 71
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 3 >10 0 >200 0
>140 2 >.375 16 >5 0 >150 1
>120 17 >.350 49
>100 53 >.325 84 2B %
>80 88 >.300 99 >45 0
>60 100 >30 12
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 7 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 8 >.450 30 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 33 >.400 59 >20 24 >10 0
>.250 74 >.350 88 >10 71
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Player Spotlight - Travis Hafner
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .261 .378 .469 105 371 58 97 21 1 18 66 65 88 0 0 122
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Boog Powell, Vic Wertz
Offense %
STAR 23
AVG 51
REP LV 87
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 3 >.400 20 >10 0 >200 0
>140 15 >.375 48 >5 0 >150 0
>120 44 >.350 80
>100 80 >.325 96 2B %
>80 98 >.300 100 >45 0
>60 100 >30 0
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 9 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 23 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 5 >.450 49 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 22 >.400 80 >20 26 >10 0
>.250 59 >.350 98 >10 87
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Player Spotlight - Fausto Carmona
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.06 13 9 29 29 173 177 78 11 69 97 112
Top Near-Age Comps: Storm Davis, John Denny
ERA %
Top 1/3 49
Mid 1/3 31
Bot 1/3 20
ERA+ % BB %
>150 10 <29 0
>140 14 <38 0
>130 21 <48 10
>120 32 <58 24
>110 44 <67 46
>100 62 <77 72
>90 77
>80 88 HR %
>70 95 <13 63
<19 80
K % <25 94
>173 0 <31 98
>154 0
>135 3
>115 17
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Player Spotlight - Cliff Lee
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.68 14 9 30 30 198 204 81 18 43 142 123
Top Near-Age Comps: Vida Blue, Denny Neagle
ERA %
Top 1/3 73
Mid 1/3 22
Bot 1/3 5
ERA+ % BB %
>150 21 <33 32
>140 29 <44 59
>130 40 <55 84
>120 53 <66 96
>110 68 <77 98
>100 83 <88 98
>90 93
>80 98 HR %
>70 100 <15 40
<22 68
K % <29 82
>198 0 <35 94
>176 3
>154 22
>132 55
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ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
OPS+ >140
Sizemore 39
Choo 15
Hafner 15
OBP >.400
Sizemore 32
Hafner 19
Choo 17
SLG >.550
sizemore 25
Hafner 9
Choo 6
BA >.325
Choo 8
Martinez 6
Sizemore 2
2B >45
Sizemore 29
Peralta 12
Cabrera 2
3B >10
Sizemore 6
HR >30
Sizemore 57
Peralta 11
Hafner 1
SB >50
Sizemore 7
Brantley 5
Crowe 1
SUB-REPLACEMENT
Weglarz 77
Cooper 67
Mills 62
ERA+ >140
Perez 50
Betancourt 31
Lee 29
K/9 >9
Perez 30
Stevens 26
Mastny 26
BB/9 <1.5
Lee 32
Betancourt 18
Huff 13
HR/9 <0.7
Carmona 63
Miller 56
Perez 44
SUB-REPLACEMENT
Elarton 97
Harris 96
Slocum 92
All figures in % based on projection playing time.
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
ZiPS 2009 Archive
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 28, 2008 at 04:41 PM | 31 comment(s)
Related News: Cleveland, ZIPS
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Are the Red Sox sending like $12M in that trade? Or is Cleve. now a not-for-profit entity?
As for the rumors about moving Peralta to 3rd - does it have more to do with Peralta's defensive chops at short, or with the Tribe's failure to find any other viable option at the hot corner?
Oops! Hafner's the first player I've not given any defensive rating to since changing the format of the reports and I forgot about this.
He is a minor league FA for now....same as Lara/Slocum/Bauer etc
Peralta to 3B, Cabrera to SS, someone non-embarrassing at 2B must have crossed the Indians' minds. Whether you're more likely to find something non-embarrassing at 2B or 3B I haven't given any thought to. I'm too stunned that a 102 OPS+ is now in the "average" range for starting SS offense.
If there's a lesson here, it's how quickly the window of opportunity closes on teams that either won't invest or won't/can't tie up their young players to good buyout contracts (then get lucky that they develop and don't get hurt). Just a couple of seasons ago, they looked poised to go on a nice run of AL Central titles -- now it's Sizemore, an injured Carmona and Martinez and the Brady Anderson of pitchers (who hopefully isn't).
It's still a weak enough division that they could compete if things break right (the injured guys return to form, they cobble together a decent/good bullpen) but, as Dan rightly points out, there are a lot of holes to fill.
He could very well be the Opening Day starter at third.
I haven't heard much about Lara in the last six months. I suspect that bodes poorly for his career, but I hope I'm wrong.
In theory, you could display distributions of HR rates and such, but who thinks in those terms? Maybe better to project counting stats assuming 600 PAs or something? Or maybe just say "ah hell, it will probably suck, but I'm gonna say ZiPS is a playing time projection system, at least for starters."
I am fine with projecting him to zero chance at 10+ SBs in even an infinite amount of playing time. :-)
Actually, what I might do is what I do with pitchers - display the odds of rates instead of round numbers, but convert the rates to what the counting stat would be. For instance, Carmona's K thresholds are K/9, 8, 7, and 6, but given as the counting stats for those rates and projected IP.
ZiPS actually isn't a horrible predictor of playing time for players that aren't going to have a dramatic role change, but I hate having to explain a billion times why such-and-such team is projected to get 10000 PA.
Looks like Garko's going to get the first crack at first base, albeit with a short leash. If he can't hack it, it's probably safe to assume they'll move Victor Martinez to first semi-regularly and let Shoppach catch. (Personally, I think that's a terrible idea assuming Victor's healthy enough to catch, but they don't consult me.) Third choice might still be Mike Aubrey. They kept him on the 40-man and he can't play anywhere but first, so that indicates to me that he's still seen as a potential emergency option.
My gut instinct is that LaPorta enters spring training fourth on the first base depth chart and spends no less than four months in Columbus. Unless they plan to use him in the corner outfield, which, by all accounts, would be...entertaining.
They'd better make sure that they have a decent backup. Crede's in really bad shape.
They'd never do it, but it's certainly an outside-the-box way to use a strength to fix a weakness.
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