Sizemore's second-round-pick cover should be blown in fantasy drafts, next year. Especially with Utley hurt and stealing few bags.

Is Cleveland still exploring moving Jhonny Peralta to 3rd? Read in a recent thread that they are considering moving him to the hot corner because of his perceived decrease in range.

Hey...you're Travis Hafner!

The Indians should trade Shoppach back to the Red Sox for...something.

Mike Lowell for Shoppach? Assuming thr Red Sox can get Tiex.

Wow, Phillies farmhand Mike Cervenak (Age 31, 13 Big League ABs) is a top comp for Garko? I don't know if that speaks ill or Garko or well of Cervenak.

That's an ugly collection of third basemen. I'm sad to see how Andy Marte's career has cratered.

Mike Lowell for Shoppach? Assuming thr Red Sox can get Tiex.

Are the Red Sox sending like $12M in that trade? Or is Cleve. now a not-for-profit entity?

How is Cabrera's D only AV at 2b and FR at SS? I thought he was a defensive whiz.

Cabrera should be AV/AV not AV/FR, but the rumors of his defensive wizardry seem to have been unfounded. Franklin Gutierrez, however, can say "Behold" all he wants.

Dan, what are your defensive assessments based on?

Modern defensive stats where possible. The less we have, the more important scouting reports are. Gutierrez has turned out, defensively, as well as advertised. Cabrera is hardly a bad defender or anything, but the evidence so far seems to indicate he's nothing special.

You have Hafner in the player spotlight, but I can't find him in the main part of team. Are other AL teams missing DH-only guys?

If it's not too much trouble, Dan, could we get a line for JD Martin?

I'm looking forward to the 5-lefty rotation.

As for the rumors about moving Peralta to 3rd - does it have more to do with Peralta's defensive chops at short, or with the Tribe's failure to find any other viable option at the hot corner?

You have Hafner in the player spotlight, but I can't find him in the main part of team. Are other AL teams missing DH-only guys?

Oops! Hafner's the first player I've not given any defensive rating to since changing the format of the reports and I forgot about this.

Any chance for a prediction on MILB pick Greg Aquino ? Looking at the pen he definitely has a chance pitching 40+ IPs for the Indians in 09

If it's not too much trouble, Dan, could we get a line for JD Martin?

He is a minor league FA for now....same as Lara/Slocum/Bauer etc

Egads .... that's one horrible, horrible looking bullpen.

Peralta to 3B, Cabrera to SS, someone non-embarrassing at 2B must have crossed the Indians' minds. Whether you're more likely to find something non-embarrassing at 2B or 3B I haven't given any thought to. I'm too stunned that a 102 OPS+ is now in the "average" range for starting SS offense.

If there's a lesson here, it's how quickly the window of opportunity closes on teams that either won't invest or won't/can't tie up their young players to good buyout contracts (then get lucky that they develop and don't get hurt). Just a couple of seasons ago, they looked poised to go on a nice run of AL Central titles -- now it's Sizemore, an injured Carmona and Martinez and the Brady Anderson of pitchers (who hopefully isn't).

It's still a weak enough division that they could compete if things break right (the injured guys return to form, they cobble together a decent/good bullpen) but, as Dan rightly points out, there are a lot of holes to fill.

Are there some outliers in the projection for Hafner on the high end? His breakdowns seem about right (less than 50% that he breaks 450 slg) but his overall OPS+ is 122 when he's pegged at 44% to top 120 OPS+. He's a guy who just peaked early and is on a slow painful to watch decline. I'm hoping Ortiz doesn't follow the same path post injury.

I'm sort of surprised to see no projection for Wes Hodges. He's probably not quite ready, but arguably the best third baseman in the organization right now and tearing up the AFL.

He could very well be the Opening Day starter at third.

He is a minor league FA for now....same as Lara/Slocum/Bauer etc

WHO ARE YOU WORKING FOR?!?!?

I haven't heard much about Lara in the last six months. I suspect that bodes poorly for his career, but I hope I'm wrong.

Martin isn't just a minor league FA - he's a really good minor league FA. I think he ends up in the majors with somebody next year, and I wonder how he'll do.

Hmmm.... looking at Hafner's projection and reminding myself that ZiPS is not a playing time projection system, I wonder what the point of showing the distribution of counting stat projections is. For example, Hafner is given 0% chance of hitting 30+ HR which is odd given he's done it twice in his career. I'm guessing ZiPS is really saying he has (near) zero chance of hitting 30+ HR in 371 AB which seems perfectly reasonable. But of course there's a non-zero chance that Hafner gets 450-500 AB -- no, really, there is! :-) -- and some chance he'll bust over the 30 HR line. And 30 doubles.

In theory, you could display distributions of HR rates and such, but who thinks in those terms? Maybe better to project counting stats assuming 600 PAs or something? Or maybe just say "ah hell, it will probably suck, but I'm gonna say ZiPS is a playing time projection system, at least for starters."

I am fine with projecting him to zero chance at 10+ SBs in even an infinite amount of playing time. :-)

In theory, you could display distributions of HR rates and such, but who thinks in those terms? Maybe better to project counting stats assuming 600 PAs or something? Or maybe just say "ah hell, it will probably suck, but I'm gonna say ZiPS is a playing time projection system, at least for starters."

Actually, what I might do is what I do with pitchers - display the odds of rates instead of round numbers, but convert the rates to what the counting stat would be. For instance, Carmona's K thresholds are K/9, 8, 7, and 6, but given as the counting stats for those rates and projected IP.

ZiPS actually isn't a horrible predictor of playing time for players that aren't going to have a dramatic role change, but I hate having to explain a billion times why such-and-such team is projected to get 10000 PA.

25 comments and no mention of Matt LaPorta. You know the most significant thing the Indians did all season was trade C.C. Sabathia.

If LaPorta is a major factor for the 2009 Cleveland Indians, at least one of two things has happened: Either the season's in the crapper or he developed way earlier than expected. Even if the season's in the crapper, I wouldn't expect to see him before July.

Looks like Garko's going to get the first crack at first base, albeit with a short leash. If he can't hack it, it's probably safe to assume they'll move Victor Martinez to first semi-regularly and let Shoppach catch. (Personally, I think that's a terrible idea assuming Victor's healthy enough to catch, but they don't consult me.) Third choice might still be Mike Aubrey. They kept him on the 40-man and he can't play anywhere but first, so that indicates to me that he's still seen as a potential emergency option.

My gut instinct is that LaPorta enters spring training fourth on the first base depth chart and spends no less than four months in Columbus. Unless they plan to use him in the corner outfield, which, by all accounts, would be...entertaining.

I think the thing to do here is trade V. Martinez. Shoppach is fine as a starting catcher, and Martinez must have some real value. His contract is for 5.7 and 7 for the next two years, and he's one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. What about Martinez for Jed Lowrie? Slide Peralta over to third, if the RSox go for it. Or trade him for pitching and sign Joe Crede.

That's some good catching depth. And awful third base depth. If only you could trade one area of need to fill another.

sign Joe Crede.

They'd better make sure that they have a decent backup. Crede's in really bad shape.

Victor originally signed as an shortstop. He hasn't played anywhere but catcher or first base in about ten years, but there's no reason to think he can't handle third base. He's certainly athletic enough - it's not like you'd be plopping a big fat slug out there.

They'd never do it, but it's certainly an outside-the-box way to use a strength to fix a weakness.