BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

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1. channeling my inner STEAGLES Posted: February 10, 2009 at 01:37 PM (#3072996)

2. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 01:59 PM (#3073012)

that looks like a terrible line for carlos gonzalez. i won't at all be surprised if his RC/27 is double or even triple that prediction, and his range looked tremendous in CF. all in all, it's just really a terrible line for him.

Double his RC/27 and he has the 11th highest RC/27 (of players that I've projected), just below Ryan Howard. I'll take the under!

None of the projection systems are expecting big things after how poorly Gonzalez played last year.

3. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:07 PM (#3073016)

As a Reds fan, I'd sure love to see Taveras back in their outfield mix.

4. channeling my inner STEAGLES Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:22 PM (#3073028)

Double his RC/27 and he has the 11th highest RC/27 (of players that I've projected), just below Ryan Howard. I'll take the under!

None of the projection systems are expecting big things after how poorly Gonzalez played last year.

5. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:32 PM (#3073035)

maybe that was a little overzealous, but i do think that now is the time to jump on gonzalez's bandwagon. his defense, his established level of minor league performance, and his tools laden potential really make me think he's in for a hell of a year.

I liked CarGo last year, but I think you may be setting yourself up for disappointment. I agree his defense is better than generally accepted, but he's got a lot of learning to do in the batter's box. If he can manage a .310 or .315 or so, OBA, you've got to be happy with that. He's a freakin doubles machine, though. I think he'll be solid, eventually. AROM has his upside as Garret Anderson and that makes a lot of sense to me but I think his glove is better than GA's in his prime. I would advise patience.

6. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:32 PM (#3073037)

Koshansky!

7. Mike Webber Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:33 PM (#3073038)

I'm hoping everyone in my roto league forgets about Tulo, how likely is the hip injury to linger/reoccur?

Steagles, just switch bandwagons from Carlos Gonzalez to Dexter Fowler. You'll be happier.

8. thinkmaui Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:42 PM (#3073052)

Ian Stewart's line looks very similar to his home splits from last year. I hope for his sake ZIPS is correct, and he's definitely going to have to stop striking out almost 1/3rd of the time to get there.

9. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:44 PM (#3073058)

That's a nice line for Ian Stewart. ZiPS is really lovin' on the young players these days.

10. channeling my inner STEAGLES Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:45 PM (#3073059)

I liked CarGo last year, but I think you may be setting yourself up for disappointment. I agree his defense is better than generally accepted, but he's got a lot of learning to do in the batter's box. If he can manage a .310 or .315 or so, OBA, you've got to be happy with that. He's a freakin doubles machine, though. I think he'll be solid, eventually. AROM has his upside as Garret Anderson and that makes a lot of sense to me but I think his glove is better than GA's in his prime. I would advise patience.

i'm actually the opposite of that. i didn't much like gonzalez as a prospect, since i was led to believe he had zero chance to stick in CF and i didn't think he'd have enough of a bat to stick in a corner.

last year, he proved that he's a capable CFer, and while i still don't think his bat is all that great, i think it'll be enough to make him a very good player.

Steagles, just switch bandwagons from Carlos Gonzalez to Dexter Fowler. You'll be happier.

i'm firmly entrenched in that bandwagon, as well. 6'5" of lithe, lean CFer, who can draw a walk and steal a base will always be appreciated in my book.

i just happen to think gonzalez is better than the 9th best CF option in colorado.

also, for this particular list, i think separating out the tiers would make a huge difference. joe koshansky might be projected for a .500 SLG%, but i can't imagine that'd be better than average in that park and at 1B.

11. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:50 PM (#3073064)

Dude, don't underestimate the Koshansky!.

12. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:57 PM (#3073069)

Jeff Francis is unlikely to get to 178 innings. His shoulder is going to keep him from starting spring training on time, and he may need surgery.

No. 7: What hip injury? Tulowitzki tore a muscle in his quad last year, then ripped open his palm. Neither is likely to have any long-term effects.

My theory on Coors Field is that it has its greatest effect on power hitters who put the ball in play, which is why Matt Holliday's home/road splits narrowed throughout his career as he learned to draw more walks, and Brad Hawpe, who walks a lot, has never had a severe split. Carlos Gonzalez hardly walks ever, and doesn't strike out that much for a power hitter; he could be the new Dante Bichette. At any rate, the Rockies have four plausible outfield candidates in Gonzalez, Spilborghs, Hawpe and Stewart, so even if one of them falls apart or gets hurt, they'll be OK out there. It would be nice if one of them stepped forward to be an MVP candidate and fill Holliday's shoes, but even if they don't, none of them should be nearly as bad as Willy Taveras was last year.

It would also be nice if they'd just forget about Podsednik once and for all. Those four guys plus Seth Smith and Dexter Fowler (who I presume starts the year at AAA) is plenty of outfielders.

13. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:57 PM (#3073070)

Ack, I forgot the tiers again!

14. BeanoCook Posted: February 10, 2009 at 02:58 PM (#3073071)

I think it is a good observation about the Rockies being more tactical than strategic.

However, if you take a step back, MLB has quietly started to resemble the NFL in that every year could be your year and you kind of have to take a "win now" approach to your team every year, or close to every year. Esp in a small 4 team division, where getting into the playoffs can happen by accident and these days winning the World Series once there is occasionally something of an accident.

Of course this is not to say the Rockies should not be trying to operate with a (strategic) plan in mind.

15. BeanoCook Posted: February 10, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3073073)

* Okay, I got my West divisions confused. Still, that division, NL West has lacked a dominant team for years now. Easier to win than most, as is the NL Wildcard.

16. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 10, 2009 at 03:09 PM (#3073080)

Have you guys seen Koshansky play? He's a huge, ungainly dude who can hit the ball a mile, but he strikes out, and looks terrible doing it, about 40 percent of the time. I'd love it if he'd turn into a poor man's Ryan Howard, but I wouldn't bet on it.

17. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 10, 2009 at 03:13 PM (#3073086)

Tulowitzki tore a muscle in his quad last year, then ripped open his palm. Neither is likely to have any long-term effects.

I would be a little concerned about the torn quad. At Tulo's age it might be nothing but a similar injury has robbed Soriano of much of his speed.

18. JPWF13

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 03:14 PM (#3073088)

his established level of minor league performance

which would be what exactly?
He hit .283/.344/.416 in the PCl last year,
He hit .286/.330/.476 in AA in 2007
He hit .300/.356/.563 in the Calif League for the Lancaster JetHawks- the TEAM hit .303/.368/.483- and that's a pretty typical line there.

Basically his established level of minor league performance says he has trouble reaching a league average OBP IN THE MINORS.

All he's got on his side is youth, and even considering his youth and his levels he didn't hit nearly as well as Milledge or Chris Young or Delmon Young did in the minors (when accounting for park/league context).
And those three put up OPS+s of 91, 91 and 102 last year.

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 03:20 PM (#3073099)

Combine translations and majors and here are the lines I have for Gonzalez (translated to major league team's home park):

2006: 218/264/379
2007: 274/308/438
2008: 246/284/361

20. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 10, 2009 at 03:29 PM (#3073111)

his defense, his established level of minor league performance, and his tools laden potential really make me think he's in for a hell of a year.

His minor-league performance isn't much to scream about.

Level, OPS, lgOPS
A-, 756, 723
A, 849, 723
A+, 919, 764
AA, 794, 731
AAA, 787, 801
MLB, 634, 734

He hasn't really sustained his performance through the high minors, and that's somewhat troubling. I agree that given his defense and his tools there's a lot to like here (I also find him aesthetically pleasing as a ballplayer and enjoyed rooting for him). But he's not getting any younger and the bat needs to show up at some point. He'll probably end up as at least average all things considered, but - unfair as it sounds - he was supposed to be a star.

21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 10, 2009 at 03:55 PM (#3073139)

"Have you guys seen Koshansky play? He's a huge, ungainly dude who can hit the ball a mile, but he strikes out, and looks terrible doing it, about 40 percent of the time."

Seems about right. I saw him at the Futures Game a few years back.

22. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: February 10, 2009 at 04:16 PM (#3073162)

Wow, is Spilborghs that bad in center? It seems odd that he's rated more poorly than Matt Murton.

23. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 04:26 PM (#3073168)

Ack, Murton shouldn't be rated at all out there.

24. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 04:43 PM (#3073179)

My theory on Coors Field is that it has its greatest effect on power hitters who put the ball in play

Take out the word "power" and I think you're correct, although for some reason Taveras didn't (maybe because when he hits the ball in the air it's a weak popup, whereas most of the other guy who were primarily contact hitters at least had a little oomph). Pierre had big splits in two of his three years there. Aaron Miles also had huge splits in his two seasons.

-- MWE

25. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: February 10, 2009 at 05:05 PM (#3073215)

Like Homer and his nuclear physics test, the plan was essentially to hide under a pile of coats and hope that everything would just work out.

Dan, this is creepy. I literally watched this episode less than 12 hours ago.

26. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 05:12 PM (#3073224)

Given the number of people that read this site and the dominant demographics, white educated males 25-49 with average or better incomes, I naturally just assume that every Simpsons episode has a Primate watching it right now.

27. Good Night Moon Posted: February 10, 2009 at 05:15 PM (#3073228)

Hey Dan,

Do you have projection for Glendon Rusch? With Francis possibly going down he becomes a little more important.

28. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 10, 2009 at 05:19 PM (#3073230)

I sure hope things don't get so dire that they get to the point where Glendon Rusch is in the rotation. Even without Francis, he'd be behind Cook, Jimenez, de la Rosa, Greg Smith, Jason Marquis, Franklin Morales and Jason Hirsh.

29. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 05:42 PM (#3073259)

GNM, there are a few projections I did that are missing (I believe they appeared correctly a few days ago in the ZiPS Facebook Group).

Bowers - 3-4, 5.48, 87 ERA+
Fogg - 5-11, 5.80, 82 ERA+
Rusch - 4-8, 5.91, 80 ERA+

30. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 10, 2009 at 05:53 PM (#3073277)

white educated males 25-49 with average or better incomes

Ha! Jokes on you! I'm not white! <goes back to watching Simpsons>

31. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3073289)

Ha! Jokes on you! I'm not white! <goes back to watching Simpsons>

I did say mostly!

32. The District Attorney Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:09 PM (#3073299)

Whoa, I never noticed the link to the ZiPS Facebook Group. Sounds like a happening spot.

33. Danny Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:18 PM (#3073309)

Dan, any chance you could re-do the first few teams (like, um, the A's) with these fancy OPS+, tiers, and ODDIBE? Thanks!

None of the projection systems are expecting big things after how poorly Gonzalez played last year.

I think it's worth noting that ZIPS absolutely nailed Gonzalez last year:

Projection: .228/.271/.365, 68 OPS+
Actual: .242/.273/.361, 72 OPS+

His MLE at AAA--translated into Oakland--was also right at the same level. That said, the fact that he matched his projections doesn't mean he's the same prospect he was last year. CarGo's prospectdom has never been based on his numbers, but on the chance that he could translate his great tools into great skills. Another year without doing so dims his hopes some. But he was also surprisingly good with the glove after being hyped as overmatched in CF last offseason. Dewan had him as +5 plays in CF in 530 innings and anther +5 plays in RF in just 160 innings. UZR said pretty much the same (+3 runs in CF, +4 runs in RF).

34. Greg (U)K Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:18 PM (#3073311)

The joke is also on you because I am very much below average income!!!

...oh wait
I think that means the joke is on me.

35. Justin T contains indigenous nudity Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3073321)

All decisions seem to be made at the tactical level

What's missing is some kind of long-term strategy.

But they essentially wasted the year in that they answered very few questions about the team going forward.

So all over, we see the artifacts of poor planning sucking the talented players down.

So, what you're trying to say here, Dan, is that the Rockies are a poorly run team?

36. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3073329)

The joke is also on you because I am very much below average income!!!

Don't worry, soon any income will be above average. You might even be able to hire a giant to carry you around!

37. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:34 PM (#3073333)

So, what you're trying to say here, Dan, is that the Rockies are a poorly run team?

Not really, I mean, they're functional at lots of things, not like the 98-02ish Orioles.

38. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:38 PM (#3073340)

Aaron Cook turns 30 this year. Two of the top 3 ZiPS comps (Erickson and Stottlemyre) had their last good season right around that point (Erickson was 30, Stottlemyre 31) and declined rather quickly from there (although in Mel's case it was injury and not age, but the signs of decline were there). Bronson Arroyo, a not terribly dissimilar pitcher to that bunch, also declined at age 31 a year ago. If Cook crashes and burns, the Rox don't have much in reserve.

-- MWE

39. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 06:40 PM (#3073342)

The Rockies make good decisions, for the most part - but they make them as though they were playing in a fantasy league, where you don't normally worry about next year until next year rolls around.

-- MWE

40. jwb Posted: February 10, 2009 at 09:12 PM (#3073562)

I've got Carlos Gonzalez a little higher than #9 on my depth chart. However, if anyone wishes to debate the relative merits of Scott Podsednik and Carlos Gonzalez, start the war without me.

41. devil_fingers Posted: February 10, 2009 at 09:46 PM (#3073616)

Dan -- I have read the FAQ, but I have to assume that your "Excellent/Good/Fair/etc." rankings just take account of offense relative to position. Brad Hawpe's a good hitter, but he's a historically bad right fielder defensively, to the point where it more than nullifies his offense. It's so bad I almost feel bad for making fun of it. He was between minus 3-4 wins defensively in every system I've seen for 2008. that's just... What can you say?

Thanks for the projection, as always. Any specific suggestions on what they should be doing?

Love the "Homer" plan, even if you do use it a lot. I hope that all of Dayton Moore's offseason brilliance earn him quite the Oracle intro the the Royals 2009 projections... Maybe even another note from Billy.

42. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 10, 2009 at 10:00 PM (#3073637)

He was between minus 3-4 wins defensively in every system I've seen for 2008.

I thought this sounded impossible and that you were exaggerating. Then I looked it up and... wow.

43. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 10, 2009 at 10:05 PM (#3073644)

Dan -- I have read the FAQ, but I have to assume that your "Excellent/Good/Fair/etc." rankings just take account of offense relative to position.

Dev, check the last bit in the disclaimer!

44. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: February 10, 2009 at 10:09 PM (#3073647)

I would characterize the Rockies' strategy is largely hang on and hope every good young player pans out like Tulo, Jimenez, Morales, and Corpas did in 2007.
And keep signing older fill-in guys thinking that you'll occasionally get hits like Herges in 07.
That's not a bad strategy, one that would generally get good props here.
I just think that they are TOO dependent on prospects being the solution to everything. They could, for example, use a quality bat in the OF at a time when there are several really good hitters who can probably be snagged cheap. This is a pretty winnable division, even after trading Holliday. They just don't seem to be doing much beside relying on prospects to mature.
As a narrow strategy, it doesn't address other issues like what to do with Todd Helton who is over-payed and under-productive. It's probably too late to trade him (when did he turn 35?). But the time for thinking about that was a few years ago.

45. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: February 10, 2009 at 10:31 PM (#3073670)

Wow, Aaron Cook is 30 already?

I'm getting old...

46. devil_fingers Posted: February 10, 2009 at 10:35 PM (#3073672)

Oops. Sorry, Dan. As usual, I'm the idiot in the room. Sorry for making you redirect me to the obvious.

47. vigaro Posted: February 11, 2009 at 01:37 AM (#3073818)

trading Holliday for Jose Guillen Jr. and Craptastic FlyBaller is dumb, but not many Hollidays come along..so, yea, rare

48. KJOK Posted: February 11, 2009 at 05:17 AM (#3073995)

I would characterize the Rockies' strategy is largely hang on and hope every good young player pans out like Tulo, Jimenez, Morales, and Corpas did in 2007.

I agree. Just look at all of the guys they potentially will have that have come up thru their system:

Ianetta
Stewart
Tulowitzki
Hawpe
Spillbourghs
Fowler
Smith, Seth
Koshansky
Barmes
Colonel
Francis
Jimenez
Morales
Reynolds
Corpas
Register
Morillo
and probably a couple I missed..

That's essentially your 2006-2007 Tulsa Drillers.

49. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 11, 2009 at 05:56 AM (#3074032)

You left out several of the Rockies' older guys who came up through the system, like Cook, Atkins and Helton.

50. Walt Davis Posted: February 11, 2009 at 06:48 AM (#3074048)

I've got Carlos Gonzalez a little higher than #9 on my depth chart.

Of course he's not really 9th on the ZiPS depth chart either. First, Murton's on there by mistake. The other two average-hitting guys are poor defensively. Of the poor-hitting guys, Gonzalez is rated the best defender. ZiPS is saying Fowler's the "best" CF choice and after that, ZiPS is just holding its nose, closing its eyes and praying the dart doesn't hit Podsednik.

51. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: February 12, 2009 at 03:02 PM (#3075456)

The ZIPS projections are great to have again this year. One of the best things Dan does and I'm grateful for 'em.

I'll be glad though after he's plowed through these and can go back to the other best thing he does: transaction analysis. Lowe, Looper, Dunn, Abreu... they're kind of piling up.

52. zfan (was zambranofan) Posted: February 21, 2009 at 03:19 PM (#3082628)

Wait a minute...the Colorado Rockies of all teams have a player named CHRISTIAN COLONEL?! Does he work for the Salvation Army in the offseason or run Jesus boot camps?

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