User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 1.1539 seconds
64 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, February 23, 2009
2009 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers
The Tigers had a terrible start to the season, losing 10 of the first 12 games, and never recovered en route to their first last-place finish since the 43-119 in Alan Trammell's first season as manager.It's not hard to ascertain exactly what went wrong for the team last year. The offense was good, as was advertised, with Miguel Cabrera quietly delivering and overall finishing 3rd in the league in OPS+ and 4th in runs. The pitching, unfortunately, was either injured or ineffective and only some comical ineptitude by Orioles and Rangers hurlers enabled the Tigers to avoid allowing the most runs in the league.
Will it get better? Probably. Verlander looked to be getting it back together after a terrible April, only to lose it again in the second-half. Bonderman missed a lot of time in 2008 coming off a disappointing 2007, but he's supposedly healthy and his circulation problems seem to be behind him. Galarraga was one of the few Tiger pitchers to overachieve last year and his peripherals are generally unimpressive, but he's serviceable. Jackson was tantalizingly useful in 2008 but still has control issues. It seems that the rotation has a lot of guys that walk a batter or two a game too much, so Jimmy Leyland might want to follow George Stallings's example and have his heart checked out after the season.
The offense should be just fine again. A lot of they key contributors are in their 30s, but most are good enough that a non-catastrophic decline won't make them problems, with the obvious exception of Sheffield, who was already a problem anyway. Sheffield might be done anyway - recovering from shoulder problems are hard for younger hitters, let alone a player entering his 5th decade.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HITTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Miguel Cabrera 3b 26 .309 .382 .559 160 605 104 187 39 2 36 135 70 113 3 2 144 Magglio Ordonez rf 35 .313 .374 .487 145 552 80 173 34 1 20 101 53 75 2 3 125 Curtis Granderson* cf 28 .281 .356 .499 154 595 111 167 33 14 23 74 66 139 14 3 123 Carlos Guillen# 3b 33 .291 .367 .456 125 461 73 134 29 4 13 65 55 75 10 5 116 Placido Polanco 2b 33 .314 .357 .416 134 555 87 174 30 3 7 57 31 35 5 2 104 Marcus Thames lf 32 .249 .309 .512 91 285 45 71 13 1 20 49 24 79 1 2 112 Ryan Raburn lf 28 .259 .328 .441 105 320 46 83 18 2 12 50 31 77 7 2 101 Mike Hessman 3b 31 .233 .316 .476 118 424 58 99 15 2 28 66 46 144 3 4 106 Jeffrey Larish* 1b 26 .252 .329 .436 133 461 52 116 23 1 20 69 49 118 3 3 100 Gary Sheffield dh 40 .236 .339 .395 115 423 65 100 16 0 17 53 61 73 11 3 93 Timo Perez* lf 34 .276 .329 .388 110 399 48 110 19 1 8 47 30 43 11 4 89 Brandon Inge c 32 .240 .316 .408 145 483 63 116 24 3 17 70 47 124 6 3 90 Gerald Laird c 29 .262 .313 .400 107 370 55 97 22 1 9 43 25 75 4 3 87 Alexis Gomez* lf 30 .265 .310 .408 63 196 22 52 11 1 5 22 12 44 5 2 88 Michael Hollimon# 2b 27 .236 .308 .404 108 394 56 93 19 4 13 40 40 117 9 4 86 Ryan Strieby 1b 23 .238 .290 .417 122 475 47 113 17 1 22 75 34 122 2 3 84 Brent Clevlen rf 25 .234 .303 .388 135 466 56 109 15 3 17 57 44 171 6 3 81 Clete Thomas* cf 25 .247 .312 .363 128 482 59 119 23 3 9 45 43 127 25 10 78 Casper Wells rf 24 .230 .292 .415 105 400 51 92 16 2 18 52 27 109 13 9 84 Ramon Santiago# ss 29 .255 .319 .347 75 216 31 55 10 2 2 19 15 34 3 2 76 Don Kelly* 2b 29 .257 .311 .343 115 385 47 99 17 2 4 39 28 42 6 3 73 Dusty Ryan c 24 .227 .290 .382 90 322 36 73 12 1 12 42 28 114 1 1 76 Matt Treanor c 33 .242 .324 .322 51 149 16 36 6 0 2 19 15 30 0 0 72 William Rhymes* 2b 26 .259 .304 .318 138 544 65 141 16 2 4 45 34 72 18 6 65 Adam Everett ss 32 .235 .284 .330 104 361 37 85 20 1 4 36 21 66 8 3 64 Wilkin Ramirez lf 23 .227 .271 .356 126 489 55 111 14 2 15 52 27 163 25 12 64 Maxim St. Pierre c 29 .236 .279 .329 63 225 22 53 9 0 4 26 12 37 1 1 60 Scott Sizemore 2b 24 .221 .283 .311 77 299 35 66 13 1 4 23 24 59 10 6 57 Dane Sardinha c 30 .201 .243 .307 84 274 25 55 8 0 7 25 14 76 1 1 44 Cale Iorg ss 23 .196 .248 .306 102 409 44 80 11 2 10 35 22 148 16 13 45 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Cabrera Fr Pr Ordonez Av Granderson* Vg Guillen# Av Fr Fr Av Polanco Vg Thames Av Fr Fr Raburn Fr Fr Av Av Av Hessman Av Pr Pr Larish* Av Pr Sheffield Pr Pr Pr T.I.M.O.* Fr Pr Fr Inge Vg Av Av Av Laird Av Gomez* Av Pr Av Hollimon# Av Fr Strieby Vg Clevlen Vg Fr Vg Thomas* Av Fr Av Wells Av Fr Av Santiago# Av Av Kelly* Av Fr Av Pr Ryan Av Fr Treanor Av Rhymes* Vg Fr Everett Vg Ramirez Pr Vg St. Pierre Vg Sizemore Av Sardinha Fr Av Iorg Vg OFFENSIVE MATRIX Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP2 COMP3 CabreraMiguel 3B 85% 13% 2% 0% 0% HartJim Ray SantoRon HigginsPinky OrdonezMagglio RF 38% 38% 15% 7% 2% AlouMoises FurilloCarl KalineAl GrandersonCurtis CF 66% 17% 12% 4% 1% Van SlykeAndy HayesVon MosebyLloyd GuillenCarlos 3B 33% 37% 18% 8% 4% MuellerBill BonillaBobby CaminitiKen PolancoPlacido 2B 31% 21% 20% 17% 11% RojasCookie SaxSteve MillanFelix ThamesMarcus LF 15% 31% 21% 18% 16% IncavigliaPete TriplettCoaker ZernialGus RaburnRyan LF 1% 17% 28% 32% 21% CordovaMarty KnottJon BergerBrandon HessmanMike 3B 12% 27% 23% 19% 19% CoolbaughMike MaynardBuster BranyanRussell LarishJeffrey 1B 1% 11% 17% 33% 38% WhitesellJosh RifkinAaron HarrisGail SheffieldGary DH 0% 6% 12% 31% 51% BaylorDon AaronHank KillebrewHarmon PerezTimo LF 0% 3% 9% 24% 64% RadcliffRip SurhoffB.J. GriffeyKen GomezAlexis LF 0% 0% 3% 14% 83% StahlLarry TolanBobby SmithWillie IngeBrandon C 5% 26% 30% 29% 11% HeganJim KarkoviceRon PenaTony LairdGerald C 1% 15% 30% 39% 16% LamannoRay QuinteroHumberto MelvinBob HollimonMichael 2B 6% 9% 15% 24% 47% ConradBrooks CrespoCesar HairstonJerry StriebyRyan 1B 0% 3% 6% 20% 71% CarterChristopher WhitneyMatthew KaaihueKala ThomasClete CF 3% 5% 13% 23% 57% SaundersMichael MartinDustin CoatsBuck ClevlenBrent RF 0% 4% 7% 13% 75% AllegraMatthew StewartCaleb McCarthyBill WellsCasper RF 3% 7% 7% 11% 73% StewartQuinn MatherJoe GartrellMaurice SantiagoRamon SS 0% 2% 12% 39% 48% CintronAlex StockerKevin UribeJose KellyDon 2B 0% 0% 2% 13% 84% DoyleDenny HillerChuck YoungBobby RyanDusty C 0% 5% 14% 31% 49% PaniaguaSalvador ChitiHarry QuirozGuillermo TreanorMatt C 0% 0% 3% 35% 63% EtchebarrenAndy SwiftBob CeroneRick RhymesWilliam 2B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% SuttonNate AndersonMarlon ThurstonJoe EverettAdam SS 0% 0% 0% 12% 88% LavanDoc GallowayChick DuffyFrank RamirezWilkin LF 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% LasterJeramy WellsCasper GrahamTyler St. PierreMaxim C 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% NievesWil TorborgJeff HayworthRed SizemoreScott 2B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% BlairCameron DavisonTodd RowlettCasey SardinhaDane C 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% CashKevin SpencerRoy EspositoBrian IorgCale SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% WaltonNeil BrewerBrent CoultasRyan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Justin Verlander 26 4.27 14 11 32 32 194.0 192 92 20 74 162 106 Jeremy Bonderman 26 4.45 7 7 22 22 137.2 143 68 16 47 114 101 Armando Galarraga 27 4.79 10 10 28 27 159.2 166 85 24 62 107 94 Edwin Jackson 25 4.98 11 14 32 32 179.0 195 99 21 77 120 90 Jon Kibler* 22 5.22 8 11 23 23 131.0 154 76 16 43 45 86 Nate Robertson* 31 5.28 9 12 29 28 168.2 194 99 24 60 110 85 Dontrelle Willis* 27 5.34 7 10 26 25 143.1 159 85 19 72 86 84 Kenny Rogers* 44 5.38 7 11 25 25 144.0 169 86 20 56 71 84 Rick Porcello 20 5.80 5 9 24 24 113.1 139 73 18 37 40 78 Luis Marte 22 5.80 3 6 16 11 66.2 77 43 12 30 33 78 Chris Lambert 26 5.82 6 11 31 22 128.1 149 83 20 62 82 77 Duane Below* 23 6.17 5 11 26 26 128.1 150 88 21 74 70 73 Kyle Bloom* 26 6.61 5 11 27 24 115.2 136 85 23 72 62 68 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Bobby Seay* 31 3.88 2 1 53 0 48.2 48 21 3 19 43 116 Joel Zumaya 24 3.92 3 2 37 0 43.2 38 19 4 28 44 115 Brandon Lyon 29 4.11 5 3 66 0 65.2 71 30 5 18 44 110 Rudy Darrow 25 4.35 4 4 40 0 49.2 53 24 3 24 25 104 Fernando Rodney 32 4.44 4 4 48 0 50.2 46 25 5 31 54 102 Clay Rapada* 28 4.74 3 4 56 0 57.0 59 30 5 30 41 95 Zach Miner 27 4.79 6 6 34 14 103.1 112 55 9 44 57 94 Todd Jones 41 4.86 3 3 53 0 50.0 58 27 4 18 22 93 Macay McBride* 26 4.93 1 2 34 2 34.2 35 19 4 20 27 91 Aquilino Lopez 34 5.27 3 3 48 1 71.2 81 42 13 23 55 85 Casey Fien 25 5.37 2 4 42 0 55.1 63 33 10 16 35 84 Freddy Dolsi 26 5.53 3 5 49 0 55.1 63 34 7 29 30 82 Juan Rincon 30 5.64 2 4 58 0 60.2 71 38 9 27 42 80 Zachary Simons 24 5.79 3 6 44 0 60.2 65 39 9 43 39 78 Scott Williamson 33 5.86 1 3 28 0 27.2 30 18 5 14 24 77 * - Throws Left PITCHING MATRIX Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 BelowDuane SP 0% 9% 91% NarvesonChris MaloneyMatthew GabbardKason BloomKyle SP 0% 4% 96% NarvesonChris HampsonJustin SnareRyan BondermanJeremy SP 30% 57% 13% MillerStu GrossKevin LeonardDennis BonineEddie SP 2% 29% 69% HubbellBill SampsonChris SheldonRollie DarrowRudy RP 16% 51% 33% McDonaldJim GravesDanny HillRonald DolsiFreddy RP 3% 24% 73% HannanJim WalkupJim JonesBarry FienCasey RP 4% 28% 68% WilsonKris BettsHuck KealeySteve GalarragaArmando SP 17% 49% 34% HirshJason EldredCal MaineJohn JacksonEdwin SP 4% 42% 54% FreislebenDave AaseDon DempsterRyan JonesTodd RP 12% 39% 49% ByerlyBud HergesMatt MadduxMike KiblerJonathan SP 5% 42% 53% LaffeyAaron SowersJeremy JasterLarry LambertChris SP 1% 21% 78% FreislebenDave CrucetaFrancisco TankersleyDennis LopezAquilino RP 4% 27% 69% HevingJoe PenaOrlando RaymondClaude LyonBrandon RP 31% 49% 20% JimenezJose KingNellie UpshawCecil MarteLuis SP 3% 19% 78% MahomesPat NorrisMike ScudderScott McBrideMacay RP 12% 37% 51% HallDrew DaalOmar CapillaDoug MinerZach RP 19% 51% 29% GraheJoe WickmanBob AndujarJoaquin PorcelloRick SP 1% 20% 79% LemongelloMark MoseleyDustin FosterAlan RapadaClay RP 9% 47% 44% MohlerMike RuckerDave StantonMike RinconJuan RP 2% 17% 81% AkerJack LintonDoug HillmanDave RobertsonNate SP 4% 39% 57% KellnerAlex LemasterDenny SmithEddie RodneyFernando RP 18% 41% 41% HughesJim LaCorteFrank BurtschyMoe RogersKenny SP 3% 33% 64% FlanaganMike MitchellClarence GlavineTom SeayBobby RP 37% 44% 18% DarensbourgVic DayleyKen McElroyChuck SimonsZachary RP 1% 12% 87% FrutoEmiliano DeShongJimmie OgdenCurly VerlanderJustin SP 38% 54% 7% EscobarKelvim WilsonDon JaveryAl WilliamsonScott RP 9% 19% 73% MungoVan BottalicoRicky HallDarren WillisDontrelle SP 5% 37% 58% KoronkaJohn MooreBarry GabbardKason ZumayaJoel RP 40% 39% 21% BruneyBrian OlsonGregg ManteiMatt --------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) OPS+ 140+ Cabrera 62 Granderson 21 Ordonez 19 OBP .400+ Cabrera 26 Ordonez 16 Guillen 12 SLG .550+ Cabrera 59 Thames 25 Granderson 17 BA .325+ Polanco 32 Ordonez 32 Cabrera 27 2B 45+ Cabrera 28 ordonez 8 Granderson 7 3B 5+ Granderson 98 Guillen 38 Hollimon 30 HR 30+ Cabrera 79 Hessman 38 Granderson 20 SB 50+ Thomas 1 ERA+ 140+ (Starters) Verlander 4 Bonderman 2 Galarraga 1 ERA+ 140+ (Relievers) Zumaya 24 Seay 23 Lyon 15 K/9 9+ (Starters) Verlander 9 Bonderman 4 Lambert 1 K/9 9+ (Relievers) Rodney 60 Zumaya 43 Seay 22 BB/9 1.5- (Starters) Bonine 16 Porcello 1 BB/9 1.5- (Relievers) Fien 6 Lyon 6 Jones 3 HR/9 0.7- (Starters) Verlander 26 Bonderman 20 Kibler 13 HR/9 0.7- (Relievers) Darrow 89 Seay 77 Lyon 61 All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
ZiPS 2009 Archive
Royals
Rockies
Reds
Red Sox
Rays
Rangers
Pirates
Phillies
Padres
Orioles
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Mariners
Indians
Giants
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Braves
Blue Jays
A's
Astros
Angels
ZiPS Facebook Group
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2008 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Reader Comments and Retorts
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
AV
Who's Rudy Darrow?
Good catch - he was actually supposed to be AV (I have his projection as +3)
Or Dontrelle Willis. Although if he's projected to put up a 5.37 ERA and is comparable to John Koronka, it's probably not that likely. Ah, Dontrelle. So sad.
I had no clue Scott Williamson was still active. Probably a little less of a tragedy than Dontrelle, but he sure did look promising for a little while there.
You know who'd give huge oomph? Maxim St. Pierre.
What the hell did Timo Perez ever do to draw comparisons to BJ Surhoff and Ken Griffey (let's at least hope it's Sr.)??
Any chance of a projection for Perry (Leyland has already been hinting he has a shot to go north) and Satterwhite?
Joe, the other plan is to have more players (Inge, Everett esp) who can make plays behind the pitchers. I really think the D will help, but it may not be enough.
Great work as always Dan, thanks.
Senior.
Timo's kind of underrated in that he simply seems to be the worst pinch-hitter ever. That projection is almost identical to his non-PH hitting in the majors, but his pinch-hitting is 199/244/266.
One of the more interesting things I've discovered in the projections "game" is just how distorting pinch-hitting appearances are. So distorting, in fact, that despite making your data set smaller by removing them, you actually increase correlation with future stats by doing so.
That would be a mistake. Porcello was good, but not exactly dominant, at Lakeland a year ago - he was more hittable than one would expect and he wasn't missing as many bats as you would like to see. He still has a lot to learn, IMO.
-- MWE
Well, of those six names, there will be almost no interest in three of them (Sheff, Robertson, Willis). Ordonez and Polanco maybe, but how do Ordonez's options work? My understanding is that '10 and '11 are guaranteed (at $18 million and $15 million, respectively) if he has 457+ plate appearances in '09. Maggs is a great player, but that's a lot of money for his age 36 and 37 seasons.
The key is going to be Verlander. If he can get back to where he was before '08, they can build a team around him and Cabrera. That's a potentially awesome 1-2 punch (and each of them is entering his age 26 season), and I don't see anybody in the AL Central is running away with things over the next 5 years.
If he collapses then DD is left without a pitching staff and expensive players he can't justify keeping and so will be forced into a fire-sale, the worst part of which is that with the current economic conditions teams aren't going to be willing to take on payroll so it might not improve the tigers money issues in the short-term so much.
No pressure, Justin!
In addition to Buck's comments above, Porcello is coming, if not this year. Granderson, MCab, Porcello, and Verlander could be a great core.
I don't doubt it was part of the plan for Porcello to focus on developing his sinker (which is excellent, BTW), but I've never liked that particular approach. Porcello has to learn how and when to use ALL of his pitches, and he can (and should) do that without asking him to shelve the best one in his arsenal (which is probably his curveball).
33 at 2B, 32 at SS, 32 at 3B, 33 in LF, 35 in RF, 40 at DH
I know a lot of those guys project fairly well but that's rarely a winning recipe. Even the bench is old with maybe Clete Thomas (as 5th OF) the only player under 26 who might get substantial playing time.
I'd recommend bringing up Porcello. Ignoring performance issues, part of the Tigers' long-range problem is that Verlander and Bonderman are already "expensive" at 26. (and of course Robertson and Willis eating up plenty of dough for the next few years too.)
They could win the AL Central (who couldn't?) but I don't see a bright future for the Tigers. And yes, I could see a fire sale but, as has been pointed out, who's gonna buy?
And you want it to happen with Porcello too?
One of the things I love about the Tigers is these old(ish) guys like Hessman, Larish and Raburn getting shots a bench jobs.
He was a very good prospect in A ball. I think winning the FSL MVP in '06. Historically he has played better when he repeats a league (which he has done several times). He won't be a star, but I believe he is a good defensive player and has some power, so he could be a good 4th OF
As a White Sox fan, I'm hoping for a "Por boy" rivalry between Porcello and Poreda in the coming years. Their 2008 numbers look good:
Porcello: 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP as a 19-year-old in A+ ball
Poreda: 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP as a 21-year-old in AA ball
What a terrific name
As we were fond of pointing out over at Brew Crew Ball, it's an anagram for "Marxist Empire".
Salary cap?? Is this Bud Selig posting from his own fantasy?
Wait a minute, you're some kind of weird spambot. #### OFF!
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main