BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

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1. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 23, 2009 at 04:38 PM (#3083662)

I know he was great in 2007, but it has got to be a pretty harsh downer to have Bobby Seay as your best pitcher.

2. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: February 23, 2009 at 04:40 PM (#3083665)

Inge's D at C?

3. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 23, 2009 at 04:43 PM (#3083668)

Inge's D at C?

AV

4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3083706)

There's a candidate for whitest name in baseball - Clete Thomas.

Who's Rudy Darrow?

5. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:08 PM (#3083715)

I know defensive ratings are tricky and I could quibble with dozens of them but there's one here that is way off from my understanding of reality (and for a guy unlikely to spend much time in the show). Mike Hessman has, at minimum, average big league range at third (which is why he played spare innings at short last year).

6. Greg (U)K Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:09 PM (#3083717)

He's the guy that got [/url]Leopold and Loeb off, isn't he?

7. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:13 PM (#3083731)

Mike Hessman has, at minimum, average big league range at third (which is why he played spare innings at short last year).

Good catch - he was actually supposed to be AV (I have his projection as +3)

8. greenback

Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:14 PM (#3083736)

Dan, any idea how many players you have projected to hit .300 in 2009? I'm wondering how weird somebody like Polanco is, I guess. I certainly didn't expect him to last this long.

9. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:17 PM (#3083741)

It seems the Tiger's plan for an improved rotation, or to a lesser extent the bullpen, is "hope everyone does better than last year." To be honest, maybe that is an ok plan for guys like Verlander and Bonderman.

10. The District Attorney Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3083760)

No offense to Tigers fans, but this feels like a really boring team to me. I mean, I know the guys, and I love Granderson, but it's just... blah. Maybe Cabrera, Verlander and Zumaya playing like superstars again will give some oomph.

Or Dontrelle Willis. Although if he's projected to put up a 5.37 ERA and is comparable to John Koronka, it's probably not that likely. Ah, Dontrelle. So sad.

I had no clue Scott Williamson was still active. Probably a little less of a tragedy than Dontrelle, but he sure did look promising for a little while there.

You know who'd give huge oomph? Maxim St. Pierre.

What the hell did Timo Perez ever do to draw comparisons to BJ Surhoff and Ken Griffey (let's at least hope it's Sr.)??

11. Chrysler Town & Country Slaughter (Walewander) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:38 PM (#3083772)

Ugh, those pitching numbers are grim.

Any chance of a projection for Perry (Leyland has already been hinting he has a shot to go north) and Satterwhite?

Joe, the other plan is to have more players (Inge, Everett esp) who can make plays behind the pitchers. I really think the D will help, but it may not be enough.

Great work as always Dan, thanks.

12. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3083774)

So far, I have 5 players projected to hit .310 (Chipper, Pujols, Kendrick, Polanco, Ordonez) and an additional 11 .300 or better (Cabrera, Wright, Hanley, Pedroia, Braun, Vlad, Ichiro, Diaz, Prado, Atkins, Tejada). Still Twins, White Sox, Yankees to go.

13. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:46 PM (#3083783)

What the hell did Timo Perez ever do to draw comparisons to BJ Surhoff and Ken Griffey (let's at least hope it's Sr.)??

Senior.

Timo's kind of underrated in that he simply seems to be the worst pinch-hitter ever. That projection is almost identical to his non-PH hitting in the majors, but his pinch-hitting is 199/244/266.

One of the more interesting things I've discovered in the projections "game" is just how distorting pinch-hitting appearances are. So distorting, in fact, that despite making your data set smaller by removing them, you actually increase correlation with future stats by doing so.

14. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:48 PM (#3083786)

I was really hoping to not have to project Perry. I will probably leave Perry and Satterwhite out of the official projections spreadsheet, but when I do the March 15-20ish depth charts build, include them on the game disk if it still looks like they could go north.

15. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:58 PM (#3083794)

PH: Neat, Dan - though what does that say about pinch hitting as a skill (after all, people do pinch hit in those future appearances)?

16. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3083812)

The Tigers may be looking at Rick Porcello as a mid-season call-up if not sooner. The

17. Mike Green Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3083842)

An unfinished sentence about Porcello is just about perfect, when you think about.

18. Chrysler Town & Country Slaughter (Walewander) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:42 PM (#3083856)

I could see Porcello doing well - but there are big questions about ratcheting up his workload, per outing and overall, and adjusting his approach to miss more bats, as billfer pointed out at the DTW. I know Jim says he could get some 5IP max starts - similar to how Miller was handled in 07 - but I don't know. I don't see it any sooner than midseason, barring injuries. They need to see what they have with Dontrelle and Robertson, either in Detroit or as trade bait.

19. Every Inge Counts Posted: February 23, 2009 at 07:29 PM (#3083916)

The Tigers seem like the perfect team to try to bring in Ben Sheets...

20. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 07:48 PM (#3083939)

They need to see what they have with Dontrelle and Robertson, either in Detroit or as trade bait. I understand this, but while you are waiting to figure out whether Willis can still pitch, he has gone 4-10.

21. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 23, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3083982)

The Tigers may be looking at Rick Porcello as a mid-season call-up if not sooner.

That would be a mistake. Porcello was good, but not exactly dominant, at Lakeland a year ago - he was more hittable than one would expect and he wasn't missing as many bats as you would like to see. He still has a lot to learn, IMO.

-- MWE

22. Obama Bomaye Posted: February 23, 2009 at 08:39 PM (#3083997)

Mike, wasn't that a purposeful plan on Porcello's part, to rely on locating his sinker and not throwing whatever his high school "out" pitch was? Or was that just a cover story to explain a disappointing K total?

23. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 23, 2009 at 08:46 PM (#3084004)

My initial reaction: "holy cow, Bonderman is somehow going to be their 2nd best pitcher? Oh, nice 101 ERA+."

24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 08:48 PM (#3084007)

Tim Dierkes at MLBTraderumors speculates the Tigers could have a firesale if the team doesn't get off to a fast start - Sheff, Polanco, Ordonez, Robertson & Willis (if anyone would take them), even Verlander could be on the block. Agree or disagree?

25. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: February 23, 2009 at 09:07 PM (#3084029)

Tim Dierkes at MLBTraderumors speculates the Tigers could have a firesale if the team doesn't get off to a fast start - Sheff, Polanco, Ordonez, Robertson & Willis (if anyone would take them), even Verlander could be on the block. Agree or disagree?

Well, of those six names, there will be almost no interest in three of them (Sheff, Robertson, Willis). Ordonez and Polanco maybe, but how do Ordonez's options work? My understanding is that '10 and '11 are guaranteed (at $18 million and $15 million, respectively) if he has 457+ plate appearances in '09. Maggs is a great player, but that's a lot of money for his age 36 and 37 seasons.

The key is going to be Verlander. If he can get back to where he was before '08, they can build a team around him and Cabrera. That's a potentially awesome 1-2 punch (and each of them is entering his age 26 season), and I don't see anybody in the AL Central is running away with things over the next 5 years.

26. CC is on irrevocable waivers Posted: February 23, 2009 at 10:25 PM (#3084110)

Doesn't Carlos Guillen have to top the Tigers' list of tradeable commodities? The Tigers' current plan is to have him in LF, but he'd be just fine at 3B and can probably still handle an occasional day at SS, and he'd be a lot more valuable in the infield.

27. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 10:31 PM (#3084118)

The Dow is looking to bust the 7000 mark (going the wrong way). Revenues have to be getting squeezed this year and in the near future. Teams like the Tigers will have it tough due to their market and very high salaried players. They could be looking for some TARP cash

28. jfish26101 Posted: February 23, 2009 at 10:54 PM (#3084134)

I believe the automakers have already cut thier sponsorships with the Tigers a good deal with more to come if things don't pick up this year.

29. Chrysler Town & Country Slaughter (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:06 AM (#3084195)

I know Joe, it's not ideal. The hope is they figure it out in spring training, right? I sure hope that Willis isn't handed a sp spot with the hopes that he'll figure it out as he goes along...

30. Autobahn Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:15 AM (#3084203)

Stately is right here, the next couple of years hinges on Verlander being the top ace he was before the last season.

If he collapses then DD is left without a pitching staff and expensive players he can't justify keeping and so will be forced into a fire-sale, the worst part of which is that with the current economic conditions teams aren't going to be willing to take on payroll so it might not improve the tigers money issues in the short-term so much.

31. Chrysler Town & Country Slaughter (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:21 AM (#3084207)

Absolutely. Also keep in mind that the Tigers need to win to keep filling Comerica, and to win, Verlander pitching like he did in 06-07 is crucial.

No pressure, Justin!

32. Run Joe Run Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:21 AM (#3084208)

Even if you bank on Verlander and Bonderman - the zips for the other 3 Starting Pitching spots are just bad. The Zips on the pen don't look hopeful either. This team could be worse than 2008

33. Chrysler Town & Country Slaughter (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:22 AM (#3084209)

I think there are enough parts here to cobble together a rotaton and pen. It will require som ebreaks, but every team in the Central is hoping for a couple things to break right.

In addition to Buck's comments above, Porcello is coming, if not this year. Granderson, MCab, Porcello, and Verlander could be a great core.

34. Al Kaline Trio Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:25 AM (#3084212)

That's a pretty good projection for Miguel Cabrera. 135 RBIs would have led the league (I know that it's not what this projection system is best at since it depends on the rest of the team's contributions as well).

35. Chrysler Town & Country Slaughter (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:32 AM (#3084217)

Didn't Miggy lead the AL in homers last year, even if it was a bit of a down year overall?

36. Al Kaline Trio Posted: February 24, 2009 at 12:37 AM (#3084225)

I was just remarking about how good Cabrera is since I think he can reach such a good projection.

37. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 24, 2009 at 03:02 AM (#3084336)

Mike, wasn't that a purposeful plan on Porcello's part, to rely on locating his sinker and not throwing whatever his high school "out" pitch was? Or was that just a cover story to explain a disappointing K total?

I don't doubt it was part of the plan for Porcello to focus on developing his sinker (which is excellent, BTW), but I've never liked that particular approach. Porcello has to learn how and when to use ALL of his pitches, and he can (and should) do that without asking him to shelve the best one in his arsenal (which is probably his curveball).

38. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 04:46 AM (#3084390)

Is there a chance for a Oracle on the Orlando Hudson and Joe Crede signings? Or guess I'll just have to wait for the Crede projection, all 50 games of it.

39. Walt Davis Posted: February 24, 2009 at 05:40 AM (#3084410)

I dunno. It just looks like some of those O's teams when the O's didn't know when to cut bait and start rebuilding. Ages:

33 at 2B, 32 at SS, 32 at 3B, 33 in LF, 35 in RF, 40 at DH

I know a lot of those guys project fairly well but that's rarely a winning recipe. Even the bench is old with maybe Clete Thomas (as 5th OF) the only player under 26 who might get substantial playing time.

I'd recommend bringing up Porcello. Ignoring performance issues, part of the Tigers' long-range problem is that Verlander and Bonderman are already "expensive" at 26. (and of course Robertson and Willis eating up plenty of dough for the next few years too.)

They could win the AL Central (who couldn't?) but I don't see a bright future for the Tigers. And yes, I could see a fire sale but, as has been pointed out, who's gonna buy?

40. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: February 24, 2009 at 05:46 AM (#3084416)

I'd recommend bringing up Porcello. Ignoring performance issues, part of the Tigers' long-range problem is that Verlander and Bonderman are already "expensive" at 26.

And you want it to happen with Porcello too?

41. SABRJoe Posted: February 24, 2009 at 08:55 AM (#3084446)

Brent Clevlen: 171 whiffs in 466 AB. Good God...

42. Walt Davis Posted: February 24, 2009 at 10:41 AM (#3084460)

Sorry, meant to say I recommend against bringing up Porcello

43. Run Joe Run Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:36 PM (#3084501)

By bringing in Everett and moving Inge to third, the Tigers hope to improve their defense and thus their pitching. But they will be frustrated with the lack of production.

One of the things I love about the Tigers is these old(ish) guys like Hessman, Larish and Raburn getting shots a bench jobs.

44. Run Joe Run Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:45 PM (#3084505)

Brent Clevlen: 171 whiffs in 466 AB. Good God...

He was a very good prospect in A ball. I think winning the FSL MVP in '06. Historically he has played better when he repeats a league (which he has done several times). He won't be a star, but I believe he is a good defensive player and has some power, so he could be a good 4th OF

45. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: February 24, 2009 at 02:12 PM (#3084514)

In addition to Buck's comments above, Porcello is coming, if not this year.

As a White Sox fan, I'm hoping for a "Por boy" rivalry between Porcello and Poreda in the coming years. Their 2008 numbers look good:

Porcello: 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP as a 19-year-old in A+ ball

Poreda: 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP as a 21-year-old in AA ball

46. RMc's grumbling has gone far enough Posted: February 25, 2009 at 10:42 AM (#3085635)

According to ZiPS, the Tigers' pitchers will start 338 games...and totally suck.

47. NBarnes Posted: February 25, 2009 at 06:38 PM (#3086116)

Nice COMP2 for Sheffield.

48. DL from MN Posted: February 25, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3086132)

> Maxim St. Pierre

What a terrific name

49. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 25, 2009 at 06:48 PM (#3086135)

and a seemingly nice guy (ask dial). too bad he can't hit (he even tried converting to the mound a year or three back).

50. Jamal Touch em All Posted: February 26, 2009 at 01:14 AM (#3086642)

Any chance on seeing what Zach Miner looks like as a starter?

51. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 26, 2009 at 06:09 AM (#3086825)

I see Bonine in the matrix and ODDIBE, but could you please add his projection?

52. Argu!!!! SATAN!!!! (Sessile Fielder) Posted: March 19, 2009 at 03:32 AM (#3108103)

> Maxim St. Pierre

What a terrific name

As we were fond of pointing out over at Brew Crew Ball, it's an anagram for "Marxist Empire".

53. NJ is feeling better Posted: March 19, 2009 at 04:10 AM (#3108129)

Any chance we get a Yankees TO?

54. Alexa Posted: April 07, 2009 at 03:10 AM (#3127681)

The Detroit Tigers decided to release the veteran outfielder and designated hitter from his contract as a free agent though normally major league baseball teams aren't one of the organizations that do so. Today, Gary Sheffield is one of the people that will suffer from a corporate decision to downsize. The Tigers are now prepared to eat the salary he's still due, about $14 million, as cash advance loans of sorts towards a future draft pick or room under the salary cap. He is one run shy of 500 career home runs, has over 1,000 career RBIs, and is a solid contender for the Hall of Fame, which makes this an unceremonious dumping of Gary Sheffield.

55. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2009 at 03:26 AM (#3127692)

The Detroit Tigers decided to release the veteran outfielder and designated hitter from his contract as a free agent though normally major league baseball teams aren't one of the organizations that do so.

They aren't? Then which organizations normally release major league baseball players? Furniture makers? Software designers? NATO? What are you talking about?

The Tigers are now prepared to eat the salary he's still due, about $14 million, as cash advance loans of sorts towards a future draft pick or room under the salary cap.

Salary cap?? Is this Bud Selig posting from his own fantasy?

Wait a minute, you're some kind of weird spambot. #### OFF!

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