BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

It's hard to talk a lot about the Florida Marlins because when people talk about a team's future, they talk about the team in the context of a baseball team and winning games. Jeff Loria isn't trying to run a baseball team but instead, the sports equivalent of a slum lord. He puts out a horrible product and waits for his government honeypot. Sure, the Marlins take steps forward on the field and occasionally even do well, but Loria actually saps the joy out of any success by ensuring that any step forward is only meaningful to the extent that it helps or hinder his personal payday.

Marlins fans haven't supported the team, but it's not their fault. Who can blame them? The Marlins have shown absolutely no loyalty to their fans.

The team? The Marlins have some excellent players and at least one future star in Michael Stanton. But what does it matter? They'll all eventually move on to organizations that give a ####.


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CATCHERS
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Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ ARM 

FAIR
John Baker*              c   28  .251  .326  .368  99 323  38  81 18  1  6  38  34  73  2  1   85  Fr 
Paul Lo Duca             c   37  .261  .318  .337  80 261  26  68 11  0  3  27  19  20  1  0   76  Fr 
Matt Treanor             c   33  .242  .322  .335  62 182  17  44  8  0  3  22  18  41  0  0   76  Av 

POOR
Mike Rabelo#             c   29  .242  .297  .355  63 211  19  51 10  1  4  21  13  49  0  1   74  Fr 
Brett Hayes              c   25  .241  .280  .353  97 340  32  82 12  1  8  34  17  70  2  6   68  Fr 
Paul Hoover              c   33  .218  .271  .332  63 202  17  44  9  1  4  19  14  59  1  1   60  Vg 

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FIRST BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

FAIR
Jorge Cantu              3b  27  .270  .324  .458 131 493  65 133 31  1 20  75  34  96  2  1  106  Av 

POOR
Wes Helms                1b  33  .258  .321  .399 107 213  22  55 12  0  6  37  16  52  0  0   91  Av 
Gaby Sanchez             1b  25  .254  .319  .405 138 511  63 130 29  0 16  70  45  79 10  8   92  Av 
Logan Morrison*          1b  21  .252  .304  .403 138 528  58 133 26  0 18  65  38  88  5  2   87  Fr 
Dallas McPherson*        3b  28  .217  .295  .432 108 368  45  80 18  2 19  50  39 152  7  4   91  Av 
Paul Lo Duca             c   37  .261  .318  .337  80 261  26  68 11  0  3  27  19  20  1  0   76  Fr 
Alfredo Amezaga#         cf  31  .260  .319  .343 119 315  38  82 12  4  2  24  25  47 10  5   77  Av 
John Gall                lf  31  .244  .303  .356  90 320  31  78 16  1  6  42  25  50  5  3   76  Fr 
Jason Wood               1b  39  .227  .288  .292  88 216  21  49  8  0  2  29  16  51  2  0   56  Av 

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SECOND BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

EXCELLENT
Dan Uggla                2b  29  .262  .348  .488 150 572 103 150 38  2 29  87  67 152  4  4  120  Fr 

VERY GOOD
Jorge Cantu              3b  27  .270  .324  .458 131 493  65 133 31  1 20  75  34  96  2  1  106  Pr 

POOR
Chris Coghlan*           2b  24  .251  .315  .363 125 487  62 122 23  1 10  62  42  69 29  8   81  Av 
Chase Lambin#            2b  29  .241  .308  .381 122 394  45  95 18  2 11  42  35 103  3  3   83  Fr 
Alfredo Amezaga#         cf  31  .260  .319  .343 119 315  38  82 12  4  2  24  25  47 10  5   77  Fr 
Andrew Beattie#          2b  31  .234  .302  .349 104 350  38  82 14  1  8  39  34  88  7  3   74  Av 
Chris Barnwell           ss  30  .235  .299  .311 113 392  40  92 16  1  4  28  30  66 12  4   64  Av 
Robert Andino            2b  25  .232  .280  .337 114 406  39  94 15  2  8  28  26  90 16  8   64  Vg 
Jason Wood               1b  39  .227  .288  .292  88 216  21  49  8  0  2  29  16  51  2  0   56  Pr 

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THIRD BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

AVERAGE
Jorge Cantu              3b  27  .270  .324  .458 131 493  65 133 31  1 20  75  34  96  2  1  106  Pr 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FAIR
Wes Helms                1b  33  .258  .321  .399 107 213  22  55 12  0  6  37  16  52  0  0   91  Fr 
Gaby Sanchez             1b  25  .254  .319  .405 138 511  63 130 29  0 16  70  45  79 10  8   92  Pr 
Dallas McPherson*        3b  28  .217  .295  .432 108 368  45  80 18  2 19  50  39 152  7  4   91  Fr 

POOR
Chris Coghlan*           2b  24  .251  .315  .363 125 487  62 122 23  1 10  62  42  69 29  8   81  Av 
Chase Lambin#            2b  29  .241  .308  .381 122 394  45  95 18  2 11  42  35 103  3  3   83  Av 
Alfredo Amezaga#         cf  31  .260  .319  .343 119 315  38  82 12  4  2  24  25  47 10  5   77  Fr 
Andrew Beattie#          2b  31  .234  .302  .349 104 350  38  82 14  1  8  39  34  88  7  3   74  Av 
Chris Barnwell           ss  30  .235  .299  .311 113 392  40  92 16  1  4  28  30  66 12  4   64  Av 
Jason Wood               1b  39  .227  .288  .292  88 216  21  49  8  0  2  29  16  51  2  0   56  Fr 

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SHORTSTOPS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

EXCELLENT
Hanley Ramirez           ss  25  .307  .393  .546 154 612 124 188 39  4 33  71  81 112 38 12  148  Fr 

FAIR
Chase Lambin#            2b  29  .241  .308  .381 122 394  45  95 18  2 11  42  35 103  3  3   83  Fr 
Alfredo Amezaga#         cf  31  .260  .319  .343 119 315  38  82 12  4  2  24  25  47 10  5   77  Av 

POOR
Chris Barnwell           ss  30  .235  .299  .311 113 392  40  92 16  1  4  28  30  66 12  4   64  Fr 
Robert Andino            2b  25  .232  .280  .337 114 406  39  94 15  2  8  28  26  90 16  8   64  Av 
Jason Wood               1b  39  .227  .288  .292  88 216  21  49  8  0  2  29  16  51  2  0   56  Pr 

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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF  RF 

VERY GOOD
Jeremy Hermida*          rf  25  .271  .352  .468 135 479  72 130 27  2 21  69  55 123  6  2  117  Av  Av 
Cody Ross                cf  28  .263  .332  .489 120 354  49  93 23  3 17  53  33  91  4  0  116  Vg  Vg 

FAIR
John Raynor              lf  25  .260  .325  .390 128 497  81 129 22  2 13  42  42 114 47 10   90  Av  Av 
Cameron Maybin           cf  22  .254  .319  .399 114 414  62 105 14  2 14  44  39 118 27  6   90  Vg  Vg 
Luis Gonzalez*           lf  41  .255  .333  .392 121 329  36  84 19  1  8  49  38  43  2  1   93  Fr  Fr 

POOR
Jacque Jones*            rf  34  .253  .320  .382  86 288  34  73 15  2  6  40  27  61  4  1   87  Av  Vg 
Chase Lambin#            2b  29  .241  .308  .381 122 394  45  95 18  2 11  42  35 103  3  3   83  Fr  Fr 
Scott Cousins*           rf  24  .251  .297  .396  95 371  45  93 16  1 12  42  23  81 17  7   83  Av  Av 
Jai Miller               rf  24  .227  .295  .373 129 459  47 104 20  1 15  44  42 139 19  4   77  Vg  Av 
Alfredo Amezaga#         cf  31  .260  .319  .343 119 315  38  82 12  4  2  24  25  47 10  5   77  Av     
Michael Stanton          rf  19  .221  .284  .386 133 529  53 117 19  1 22  55  40 139  3  1   77  Vg  Vg 
Brett Carroll            rf  26  .225  .279  .403 109 347  40  78 16  2 14  44  22  90  4  3   80  Av  Av 
John Gall                lf  31  .244  .303  .356  90 320  31  78 16  1  6  42  25  50  5  3   76  Fr     
Andrew Beattie#          2b  31  .234  .302  .349 104 350  38  82 14  1  8  39  34  88  7  3   74  Av  Av 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CENTERFIELDERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG 

VERY GOOD
Cody Ross                cf  28  .263  .332  .489 120 354  49  93 23  3 17  53  33  91  4  0  116  Av 

FAIR
John Raynor              lf  25  .260  .325  .390 128 497  81 129 22  2 13  42  42 114 47 10   90  Av 
Cameron Maybin           cf  22  .254  .319  .399 114 414  62 105 14  2 14  44  39 118 27  6   90  Vg 
Jacque Jones*            rf  34  .253  .320  .382  86 288  34  73 15  2  6  40  27  61  4  1   87  Av 
Scott Cousins*           rf  24  .251  .297  .396  95 371  45  93 16  1 12  42  23  81 17  7   83  Fr 

POOR
Jai Miller               rf  24  .227  .295  .373 129 459  47 104 20  1 15  44  42 139 19  4   77  Av 
Alfredo Amezaga#         cf  31  .260  .319  .343 119 315  38  82 12  4  2  24  25  47 10  5   77  Av 
Michael Stanton          rf  19  .221  .284  .386 133 529  53 117 19  1 22  55  40 139  3  1   77  Av 
Brett Carroll            rf  26  .225  .279  .403 109 347  40  78 16  2 14  44  22  90  4  3   80  Fr 
Andrew Beattie#          2b  31  .234  .302  .349 104 350  38  82 14  1  8  39  34  88  7  3   74  Fr 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STARTERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA+ 

MIDDLE THIRD
Josh Johnson              25   4.04   6   5  20  18   107.0  110   48   9   40   87  106 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ricky Nolasco             26   4.57  10  11  31  30   189.0  201   96  28   40  151   94 
Anibal Sanchez            25   4.59   5   5  17  17    96.0   98   49  11   43   76   93 
Andrew Miller*            24   4.60   8  10  32  25   141.0  147   72  11   63  113   93 
Eulogio de la Cruz        25   4.73   7   9  37  19   135.0  140   71  12   67   96   91 

BOTTOM THIRD
Mark Hendrickson*         35   4.90   6   8  31  17   123.0  138   67  15   42   83   87 
Burke Badenhop            26   4.94   6   7  21  19   113.0  134   62  11   39   55   87 
Christopher Volstad       22   5.03   6   9  21  21   127.0  147   71  14   43   62   85 
Ryan Tucker               22   5.11   5   8  34  22   132.0  144   75  15   66   79   84 
Dallas Trahern            23   5.49   7  11  25  25   141.0  166   86  21   60   74   78 
Aaron Thompson*           22   5.61   3   6  19  19   101.0  122   63  13   43   43   78 
Chris Seddon*             25   5.62   6  11  26  26   141.0  160   88  23   63   99   76 
Henricus van den Hurk     24   5.66   1   3   7   7    35.0   38   22   6   19   36   76 
Bob Keppel                27   5.88   5  11  24  20   124.0  155   81  18   54   59   73 
Dan Meyer*                27   5.97   3   8  21  18   101.0  119   67  17   45   56   72 
Brett Sinkbeil            24   6.05   4   9  22  22   116.0  145   78  19   45   79   71 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RELIEVERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA+ 

MIDDLE THIRD
Arthur Rhodes*            39   3.32   3   2  54   0    38.0   34   14   1   19   40  131 
Joe Nelson                34   3.65   3   2  63   0    69.0   58   28   9   31   86  117 
Lee Gardner               34   3.77   3   2  38   0    43.0   46   18   3   13   23  116 
Matthew Lindstrom         29   3.80   4   3  64   0    64.0   64   27   4   25   54  113 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brandon Villafuerte       33   4.02   3   3  41   0    47.0   48   21   4   19   37  107 
Leo Nunez                 25   4.14   3   2  42   0    50.0   49   23   6   21   38  104 

BOTTOM THIRD
Renyel Pinto*             26   4.50   3   4  66   0    64.0   58   32   9   38   59   95 
Logan Kensing             26   4.58   2   3  48   0    53.0   47   27   8   35   62   94 
Doug Waechter             28   4.71   3   3  52   0    65.0   73   34   8   19   40   91 
Taylor Tankersley*        26   4.97   3   4  68   0    58.0   58   32   9   33   56   86 
Jesus Delgado             25   5.25   4   5  40   5    72.0   78   42   8   43   44   82 
Timothy Wood              26   5.32   3   4  31   0    44.0   49   26   6   20   24   81 
Christopher Leroux        25   5.96   3   7  55   0    71.0   82   47  14   33   49   72 
Harvey Garcia             25   6.21   2   5  47   0    58.0   64   40  11   37   51   69 
Carlos Martinez           27   6.64   2   4  39   0    42.0   50   31  12   17   34   65 

* - Throws Left

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - Jeremy Hermida
                   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Projection        
.271  .352  .468 135 479  72 130 27  2 21  69  55 123  6  2  117


Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Bruce Campbell, Ben Grieve

Offense %
STAR    46
AVG     69
REP LV  93

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
>160    4       >.400   5       >10     0       >200    0
>140    14      >.375   23      >5      6       >150    6
>130    26      >.350   59
>120    43      >.325   87      2B      %
>110    64      >.300   98      >45     2
>100    81                      >30     32
>90     91
>80     96
>60     100

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
>.350   0       >.550   10      >50     0       >70     0
>.325   2       >.500   27      >40     2       >50     0
>.300   13      >.450   58      >30     10      >30     0
>.275   45      >.400   87      >20     43      >10     19
>.250   81      >.350   96      >10     92

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - Cameron Maybin
                   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Projection        .254  .319  .399 114 414  62 105 14  2 14  44  39 118 27  6   90 

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Sammy Sosa, Choo Freeman

Offense %
STAR    20
AVG     56
REP LV  91

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
>160    0       >.400   0       >10     0       >200    0
>140    1       >.375   3       >5      10      >150    0
>130    4       >.350   16
>120    9       >.325   45      2B      %
>110    18      >.300   79      >45     0
>100    32                      >30     0
>90     52
>80     71
>60     95

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
>.350   0       >.550   1       >50     0       >70     0
>.325   1       >.500   6       >40     0       >50     3
>.300   5       >.450   18      >30     2       >30     38
>.275   22      >.400   48      >20     14      >10     100
>.250   55      >.350   79      >10     71

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - Ricky Nolasco
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Projection         4.57  10  11  31  30  189  201   96  28   40  151    94 

Top Near-Age Comps:  Moose Haas, Don Sutton

ERA     %
Top 1/3 27
Mid 1/3 32
Bot 1/3 41

ERA+    %       BB      %
>150    1       <32     24
>140    3       <42     61
>130    7       <53     92
>120    13      <63     96
>110    23      <74     100
>100    37      <84     100
>90     55
>80     76      HR      %
>70     92      <15     3
                <21     25
K       %       <27     52
>189    4       <34     66
>168    15
>147    45
>126    85

---------------------------------------------

Player Spotlight - Andrew Miller
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Projection         4.60   8  10  32  25  141  147   72  11   63  113    93 

Top Near-Age Comps:  Jim Kaat, Danny Jackson		

ERA     %
Top 1/3 21
Mid 1/3 40
Bot 1/3 39

ERA+    %       BB      %
>150    1       <24     0
>140    2       <31     6
>130    4       <39     13
>120    8       <47     18
>110    17      <55     37
>100    33      <63     44
>90     55
>80     79      HR      %
>70     94      <11     53
                <16     79
K       %       <20     98
>141    11      <25     100
>125    21
>110    42
>94     73

---------------------------------------------

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

HANLEY RAMIREZ

             %

40/40        7
50/50     1-in-499

OPS+ >140

Ramirez     65
Uggla       14
Hermida     14

OBP >.400

Ramirez     44
Hermida      5
Uggla        2

SLG >.550

Ramirez     41
Ross        13
Uggla       12

BA >.325

Ramirez     25
Amezaga      2
Hermida      2

2B >45

Ramirez     24
uggla       11
Hermida      2

3B >10

Ramirez      6
Raynor       2
Andino       2

HR >30

Ramirez     58
Uggla       33
Hermida     10

SB >50

Raynor      42
Ramirez     10
Coghlan      6

ERA+ >140

Nelson      25
Johnson     14
Lindstrom   13

K/9 >9

Nelson      84
Kensing     66
Tankersley  27

BB/9 <1.5

Nolasco     24
Waecther     8
Volstad      6

HR/9 <0.7

Lindstrom   69
Miller      53
de la Cruz  40

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

ZiPS 2009 Archive

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Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2008 at 11:36 AM | 24 comment(s)
Related News: Florida, ZIPS

Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 09, 2008 at 10:50 AM (#3023807)

Been meaning to thank you for adding OPS+/ERA+ - good idea.

2. davekemp Posted: December 09, 2008 at 11:12 AM (#3023826)

No love for Ricky Nolasco, my goodness. I'll take the sunny side of that projection.

3. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2008 at 11:25 AM (#3023851)

I'd love for the Royals to get Jeremy Hermida - I'm sure a lot of teams would like him.

Is Hendrickson signed for next year? For some reason I thought he was a FA.

4. Barnaby Jones Posted: December 09, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#3023929)

I'll say Maybin ends up somewhere in between the Sosa and Freeman comps.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 09, 2008 at 12:07 PM (#3023936)

Is Hendrickson signed for next year? For some reason I thought he was a FA.

He's a FA. The Marlins are his most recent team. The error is that I left out Luis Gonzalez by accident.

6. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 09, 2008 at 12:37 PM (#3023998)

I'll say Maybin ends up somewhere in between the Sosa and Freeman comps.

Boy, is THAT a safe projection :)

I did not see Maybin hit a single home run last year. He only hit four at home, FWIW, all in games that I missed for one reason or another. I see him as unlikely to develop like Sosa did, simply because he hits too many ground balls.

I'm a big Gaby Sanchez fan, but I think he's going to have to show he can play 3B to have a long career. Right-handed hitting 1Bs with his skill set (essentially the Mark Grace skill set) tend to get buried. I'll tell you, though - if hard work and attitude count for anything, he'll be a big star.

-- MWE

7. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again Posted: December 09, 2008 at 12:42 PM (#3024009)

Man, that's an awesome projection for Hanley.

8. Walt Davis Posted: December 09, 2008 at 01:26 PM (#3024062)

No love for Ricky Nolasco, my goodness.

I dunno, ZiPS comped him to Don Sutton.

Wow, I had no idea Nolasco had that kind of year. Nice to see the Marlins get something out of trading away one of their superstars. :-)

9. realteamcoach Posted: December 09, 2008 at 02:04 PM (#3024115)

I am shocked by Volstad's poor projection as well. I am a lot higher on their pitching staff than ZIPS appears to be.

10. Craig K Posted: December 09, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#3024129)

The fact that ZiPS even gives a one-in-500 chance of a 50/50 season is absolutely absurd.

11. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 09, 2008 at 07:12 PM (#3024459)

The Marlins have ... at least one future star in Michael Stanton.

That's a huge overstatement. Stanton had a good year. He has a lot of raw power. But he swings and misses a lot, and Greensboro is a very good home run park. If the power translates to Jupiter and he starts making contact more consistently, I'll get on the wagon then.

-- MWE

12. Clint Posted: December 09, 2008 at 08:18 PM (#3024496)

Dan, thanks as always for these. You're missing a projection for the Marlins' big haul for the winter, Emilio Bonifacio. He should fit quite comfortably on that long list of poor secondbasemen.

13. schruender Posted: December 09, 2008 at 09:11 PM (#3024514)

Jorge Cantu will be gone by the start of the season.

14. Mike Webber Posted: December 09, 2008 at 10:14 PM (#3024543)

I am always stunned by just how bad the Marlins are defensively.

15. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: December 09, 2008 at 10:39 PM (#3024566)

I am always stunned by just how bad the Marlins are defensively.

No kidding. The projections for the pitchers start to seem reasonable if that defense is behind them.

16. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2008 at 11:04 PM (#3024571)

Who would you rather have - Willingham or Hermida?

17. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 09, 2008 at 11:25 PM (#3024580)

No love for Ricky Nolasco, my goodness. I'll take the sunny side of that projection.

It seems fair to me. He projects as a league-average starter until proven otherwise on account of how little he pitched in 2007. Lot's of young mediocre pitchers have a fluke ~120 ERA+ season before regressing to the mean. It wouldn't surprise me if he followed a Brett Tomko-type career path: occasionally very good, but mostly just a reliable workhouse.

Who would you rather have - Willingham or Hermida?

Hermida, hands down. They're comparable players at this point, but Hermida is five years younger. His peak could be considerably higher than anything Willingham has done to date (and likely will ever do).

18. davoarid in MN Posted: December 10, 2008 at 12:45 AM (#3024626)

A few things... First, it appears you're missing projections for the guys they acquired in the Willingham trade, unless you never put those up on these projections.

Second, if you asked 100 baseball fans what team Arthur Rhodes was on, how many would say the Marlins? Less than zero?

Third, I'm officially on the bandwagon. I'm giving Florida a 30% chance of winning the East this year, and will be amazed if they finish below .500.

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 10, 2008 at 12:47 AM (#3024627)

A few things... First, it appears you're missing projections for the guys they acquired in the Willingham trade, unless you never put those up on these projections.

I did them for the trade entry but didn't add them into the pot here.

20. JoeC Posted: December 10, 2008 at 03:02 AM (#3024660)

The fact that ZiPS even gives a one-in-500 chance of a 50/50 season is absolutely absurd.

In what respect, Craig K? "Wow, ZIPS is way off," or "wow, Hanley is crazy good?"

(Sorry, had to do that. I'm more of a lurker, but I did wonder which you meant, and when I saw the name I had to ask.)

21. RollingWave Posted: December 17, 2008 at 04:29 AM (#3031444)

I'd like a spotlight on Ramirez, should be insane right now. similar age comp is what? A-rod?

22. Colin B Posted: December 21, 2008 at 11:56 PM (#3035640)

Professional sports organizations are the next group that seem to be needing some payday loans these days. You see, professional sports are thought to be one of the few things that are recession proof, but it seems even that paradigm has shifted these days. The major sports organizations have been making cutbacks, like the NFL and NBA cutting home office staff, the MLB doing away with some of its online based staff, and the NHL has put on a hiring freeze. In the wake of recession, the Arena Football League has suspended all operations for 2009, pending negotiations with the players’ union. The owners of all the league’s teams held a conference on Sunday, and agreed to suspend all activity for the fiscal year of 2009. The owners, who include Jon Bon Jovi, part owner of the Philadelphia Soul, agreed that a restructuring and fine tuning of the business model was in order to maximize the profitability of AFL games and merchandise. The AFL purports to resume operations in 2010. Click here to read the full article yourself on the [advertisement excised].

23. The District Attorney Posted: December 22, 2008 at 01:06 AM (#3035661)

Shut the #### up.

24. Voros Posted: December 29, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#3039966)

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Bruce Campbell

Groovy!

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Tuesday, December 09, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

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