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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, September 29, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros
Unfortunately, 86 wins while being outscored may very well be the high-water mark for this incarnation of the Astros, with the last few crumbs of the farm system being traded for Miguel Tejada, who was disappointingly average this season. The Astros were the oldest team in the NL in 2008, with the hitters being a nearly full year older on average than the second-oldest offense (the Padres). The Cubs emerging as a truly solid team further complicates the matter for the Astros as there's less chance of being able to pop in for a division crown with 84 wins in the Central. The Astros have enough players at the top that they can compete in 2009 with some luck, but the team needs to go aggressively after a starting pitcher (and I don't mean a Brian Moehler). Depth emerged as a serious issue every time something went wrong this year and there's not a lot to be found in the minors, meaning that they'll also have to buy depth, which isn't exactly the most cost-effective.
As of now (which is obviously extremely early), I'll put the Astros in the 77-81 win range for 2009.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Lance Berkman# 1b 33 .299 .400 .534 151 536 95 160 34 1 30 100 87 112 8 2
Carlos Lee lf 33 .299 .355 .518 134 525 74 157 32 1 27 92 44 74 8 2
Ty Wigginton 3b 31 .287 .348 .490 123 439 54 126 26 0 21 73 36 86 4 5
Hunter Pence rf 26 .288 .340 .500 137 528 71 152 30 5 24 88 41 110 11 7
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ----------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ----------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ----------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ----------------------------------------------------------------
Miguel Tejada ss 33 .300 .344 .441 139 553 76 166 31 1 15 74 30 64 4 3
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ----------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ----------------------------------------------------------------
Kaz Matsui# 2b 33 .272 .326 .395 95 357 55 97 20 3 6 40 29 63 16 3
J.R. House c 29 .262 .320 .400 128 462 48 121 23 1 13 58 38 64 1 2
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ----------------------------------------------------------------
Mark Loretta 2b 37 .276 .344 .362 96 290 31 80 14 1 3 28 29 29 0 1
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----------------------------------------------------------------
Val Majewski* rf 28 .256 .315 .384 87 305 37 78 16 1 7 35 25 56 5 4
David Newhan* 2b 35 .256 .310 .379 82 211 27 54 9 1 5 25 15 42 5 2
Mark Saccomanno 1b 29 .242 .283 .425 124 454 49 110 22 2 19 65 25 94 2 2
Jose Castillo 3b 28 .247 .298 .384 122 396 42 98 23 2 9 45 27 79 2 2
Reggie Abercrombie rf 28 .246 .280 .417 114 350 47 86 17 2 13 48 12 106 21 6
Geoff Blum# 3b 36 .245 .302 .364 99 269 28 66 14 0 6 31 21 43 1 1
Nick Gorneault lf 30 .227 .293 .393 109 379 46 86 17 2 14 50 34 99 7 5
Christopher Johnson 3b 24 .246 .276 .387 126 491 49 121 22 1 15 60 20 87 4 2
Justin Towles c 25 .228 .306 .360 115 386 48 88 16 1 11 45 31 71 7 8
Mitch Einertson rf 23 .236 .278 .381 112 420 48 99 23 1 12 50 22 79 4 4
Jordan Parraz cf 24 .237 .301 .348 120 480 59 114 21 1 10 51 36 82 22 12
Darin Erstad* cf 35 .248 .300 .328 84 238 29 59 11 1 2 21 17 42 3 1
Ray Sadler cf 28 .221 .276 .386 123 435 47 96 17 2 17 56 29 110 7 5
Michael Bourn* cf 26 .237 .303 .307 119 342 50 81 7 4 3 29 31 77 29 7
Collin DeLome* lf 23 .215 .264 .380 107 405 46 87 15 2 16 52 21 91 11 3
Eli Iorg rf 26 .227 .262 .366 93 344 37 78 14 2 10 39 15 79 15 6
Koby Clemens c 22 .217 .280 .334 110 419 43 91 17 1 10 44 35 95 3 4
Edwin Maysonet ss 27 .231 .278 .330 116 385 40 89 18 1 6 37 23 71 7 3
Humberto Quintero c 29 .238 .277 .333 88 273 24 65 12 1 4 26 10 46 1 1
Brad Ausmus c 40 .218 .300 .280 86 243 20 53 10 1 1 18 25 47 3 2
Yordany Ramirez cf 24 .230 .255 .356 117 421 47 97 18 1 11 47 11 65 20 10
Tomas Perez# 3b 35 .232 .268 .299 89 298 28 69 12 1 2 24 15 47 2 2
Thomas Manzella ss 23 .219 .262 .298 108 406 38 89 19 2 3 32 22 72 8 6
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Berkman# Av Pr
Lee Pr
Wigginton Fr Pr Fr Fr
Pence Av Fr Av
Tejada Av
Matsui# Av
House Pr Av
Loretta Av Av Fr Fr
Majewski* Av Fr Av
Newhan* Fr Fr Pr Fr Fr
Saccomanno Fr Pr
Castillo Pr Av Pr
Abercrombie Vg Vg Vg
Blum# Av Fr Av Fr
Gorneault Av Av
Johnson Av
Towles Av
Einertson Vg Fr Vg
Parraz Av Fr Av
Erstad* Av Vg Vg Vg
Sadler Vg Av Vg
Bourn* Vg Fr Vg
DeLome* Av Pr Av
Iorg Vg Av Vg
Clemens Av Av
Maysonet Vg Vg Av Av
Quintero Av
Ausmus Av
Ramirez Vg Vg
Perez# Av Av Av Av
Manzella Vg
Player Spotlight - Ty Wigginton
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .322 .385 .576 134 479 72 154 32 0 30 96 43 85 5 5 148
Mean .287 .348 .490 123 439 54 126 26 0 21 73 36 86 4 5 117
Pessimistic (15%) .255 .316 .424 101 361 33 92 19 0 14 51 27 79 2 4 92
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tim Wallach, Casey Blake
Player Spotlight - Hunter Pence
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .312 .371 .560 157 605 94 189 40 7 32 114 55 113 16 8 140
Mean .288 .340 .500 137 528 71 152 30 5 24 88 41 110 11 7 117
Pessimistic (15%) .269 .309 .441 121 467 47 122 24 3 18 67 31 108 8 6 94
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jerry Morales, Dan Ford
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Jose Valverde 29 3.31 4 3 65 0 68.0 54 25 8 25 90
La Troy Hawkins 36 3.39 4 2 60 0 61.0 57 23 4 19 43
Geoff Geary 32 3.43 4 2 63 0 76.0 74 29 5 25 48
Roy Oswalt 31 3.61 14 9 31 30 207.0 211 83 17 45 159
Doug Brocail 42 3.97 5 4 67 0 68.0 67 30 8 22 50
AVERAGE RELIEVER ------------- 3.98 -----------------------------------------------
Tim Byrdak* 35 4.06 2 1 49 0 51.0 45 23 6 25 51
Chad Paronto 33 4.22 2 2 53 0 64.0 68 30 6 21 41
Chris Sampson 31 4.35 6 7 37 14 118.0 129 57 15 21 61
AVERAGE STARTER -------------- 4.48 -----------------------------------------------
Wandy Rodriguez* 27 4.59 8 10 28 27 151.0 157 77 18 58 126
Micah Bowie* 34 4.64 1 2 25 1 33.0 33 17 3 18 27
Randy Wolf* 32 4.68 7 8 23 23 127.0 131 66 17 50 105
Ray King* 35 4.95 1 2 56 0 40.0 44 22 5 20 22
Dave Borkowski 32 4.96 3 4 56 0 78.0 84 43 10 29 57
Wesley Wright* 24 4.97 4 5 62 0 67.0 63 37 9 42 58
Chad Reineke 27 5.03 5 8 27 19 118.0 126 66 16 51 83
Samuel Gervacio 24 5.04 4 5 53 0 75.0 81 42 11 33 63
Alberto Arias 25 5.16 4 6 42 6 82.0 88 47 12 34 54
Nick Regilio 30 5.20 2 4 39 0 45.0 48 26 6 23 34
Brian Moehler 37 5.40 5 8 30 14 100.0 121 60 16 28 54
Ryan Houston 29 5.49 2 3 48 0 59.0 63 36 8 36 46
Fernando Nieve 26 5.53 2 5 33 8 70.0 79 43 12 30 49
Polin Trinidad* 24 5.53 6 11 27 27 153.0 178 94 28 39 79
Bud Norris 24 5.54 4 8 22 22 91.0 102 56 14 43 59
Jack Cassel 28 5.56 5 11 25 20 131.0 159 81 19 47 74
Brad James 25 5.57 4 8 19 18 97.0 115 60 13 44 38
Paul Estrada 26 5.69 2 5 36 0 49.0 51 31 9 30 46
Brandon Backe 31 5.72 4 10 18 18 96.0 111 61 18 45 63
Kyle Middleton 29 5.73 2 5 30 9 77.0 92 49 13 30 40
Joshua Miller 30 5.73 5 10 28 17 132.0 162 84 23 29 60
Runelvys Hernandez 31 5.92 5 11 23 22 117.0 139 77 21 51 70
Josh Muecke* 27 6.05 4 11 28 19 125.0 148 84 22 53 64
Felipe Paulino 25 6.22 3 6 15 14 68.0 77 47 12 45 43
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Roy Oswalt
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 2.67 19 6 34 33 236 213 70 14 39 189 161
Mean 3.61 14 9 31 30 207 211 83 17 45 159 119
Pessimistic (15%) 4.47 9 10 26 25 163 181 81 18 46 121 96
Top Near-Age Comps: Kevin Brown, Charles Nagy
Player Spotlight - Wandy Rodriguez
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.72 11 9 31 30 174 165 72 17 48 151 115
Mean 4.59 8 10 28 27 151 157 77 18 58 126 94
Pessimistic (15%) 5.43 5 10 23 22 121 138 73 18 45 96 79
Top Near-Age Comps: Alex Kellner, Woodie Fryman
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
Dan Szymborski
Posted: September 29, 2008 at 03:09 PM | 19 comment(s)
Related News: Houston, ZIPS
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Seriously, thanks Dan, you're the best.
Ooh, that's not so good though better Ford than Morales.
Well, I guess Yankees fans will have to wait a while for their ZiPS, right?
Yeah, but next year they're coming in order of latitude.
How many ways can we think of ordering ZiPS to keep Dan from getting bored ... we've already had cities in both directions, we've got team names going this year ...
order of founding
all-time winning percentage
in order of the season(s) Mike Morgan pitched for them
Yes, he'll reappear with the Padres - I'm sometimes a bit sloppy when it comes to the late season trades and end up including those players with both teams.
WOHOO!!! GO DARRIN ERSTAD!!!
HE WAS A COLLEGE PUNTER, YOU KNOW...
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