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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, February 21, 2009
2009 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
Dayton Moore has had a mixed record in Kansas City and while he did a good job turning the Royals from a laughingstock basement-dweller to a respectable, though mediocre, team, it's still a very open question as to whether he's the right man to guide the team towards the next step of becoming a team capable of competing for the playoffs.So far, I'd have to give a qualified no to the second question. You can't run a poor-to-middling team in the same manner that you would run a truly competitive team. The risks a team in the Royals position should be willing to take are far greater than those that a team like the Red Sox should be willing to take.
The Red Sox or Yankees aren't able to do a whole lot of high-risk plays. Neither can afford to aggressively promote a Kala Kaaihue or a Carlos Rosa or give Ryan Shealy a shot to see where he is. A good team might, if the structure of the team calls for it, need to acquire Mike Jacobs or Coco Crisp or sign Jose Guillen or Kyle Farnsworth or even Horacio Ramirez (I'm not sure even a team in Italy could really justify signing Willie Bloomquist). The Royals are not that team - the value they get from known mediocrity is just about zero. If Tony Pena had merely been bad instead of downright horrible, Mike Aviles probably doesn't get a shot to shine. That's not what poor teams should be doing. The advantage of being in the position of the Royals or Orioles or Rangers is that you can dare to do things that the big dogs can't.
The Royals are unlikely to make a serious run at the division this year. It's not impossible as there are a lot of decent players (though light on stars) and there are no juggernaut teams in the Central, but I think the odds are against it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HITTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ David DeJesus* cf 29 .287 .359 .428 136 526 80 151 30 7 10 65 49 72 8 5 106 Alex Gordon* 3b 25 .259 .343 .442 148 525 72 136 36 3 18 64 59 124 11 3 104 J.R. House 1b 29 .291 .346 .436 145 525 63 153 32 1 14 73 42 64 2 3 104 Billy Butler dh 23 .284 .344 .432 160 584 68 166 33 1 17 83 53 78 2 1 102 Mark Teahen* rf 27 .272 .341 .432 158 562 79 153 33 6 15 65 58 127 9 3 102 Kala Kaaihue 1b 24 .258 .345 .432 135 465 58 120 18 0 21 74 61 84 2 2 103 Mike Jacobs* 1b 28 .262 .313 .485 135 478 67 125 33 1 24 82 36 100 2 1 106 Ryan Shealy 1b 29 .268 .336 .436 112 358 44 96 18 0 14 53 32 97 2 1 101 Jose Guillen rf 33 .272 .321 .448 138 525 66 143 33 1 19 87 27 93 3 1 99 Mike Aviles ss 28 .289 .319 .433 154 610 82 176 36 5 14 73 26 71 9 4 95 Shane Costa* rf 27 .279 .326 .420 88 305 37 85 20 1 7 31 19 39 6 1 95 Mark Grudzielanek 2b 39 .288 .334 .392 74 288 37 83 19 1 3 23 15 37 1 1 91 Tug Hulett* ss 6 .258 .330 .388 134 477 71 123 26 3 10 48 50 95 14 6 88 Mitch Maier* cf 27 .279 .315 .405 143 541 69 151 32 3 10 60 27 86 10 5 88 Alberto Callaspo# 2b 26 .281 .335 .376 89 303 38 85 14 3 3 27 24 21 3 3 87 Brayan Pena# c 27 .280 .326 .392 98 332 36 93 20 1 5 35 21 30 5 4 88 Esteban German 2b 31 .267 .344 .369 70 195 30 52 11 3 1 21 21 34 6 3 88 Ross Gload* 1b 33 .286 .325 .393 75 224 27 64 13 1 3 26 13 25 2 2 88 Coco Crisp# cf 29 .267 .328 .380 128 434 63 116 22 3 7 49 39 68 20 6 85 John Buck c 28 .237 .312 .408 122 397 48 94 24 1 14 55 38 98 1 3 87 Corey Smith 3b 27 .241 .298 .396 144 535 47 129 27 1 18 65 39 129 8 4 81 Miguel Olivo c 30 .252 .277 .427 111 393 43 99 23 2 14 54 10 92 6 2 82 Willie Bloomquist 2b 31 .268 .332 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 18 22 12 3 78 Tommy Murphy# cf 29 .252 .303 .353 139 496 66 125 24 4 6 42 35 110 27 10 72 Mike Moustakas* 3b 20 .246 .284 .383 140 574 60 141 20 1 19 63 28 121 7 6 74 Matt Tupman* c 29 .253 .315 .320 89 300 30 76 12 1 2 29 26 42 1 1 68 Chris Lubanski* lf 24 .229 .278 .373 125 442 46 101 19 3 13 48 32 134 6 4 69 Mario Lisson 3b 25 .230 .277 .348 146 535 54 123 25 1 12 59 30 119 27 9 63 Joseph Dickerson* cf 22 .253 .299 .326 98 368 34 93 11 2 4 32 20 64 20 16 65 Jose Duarte cf 24 .238 .283 .317 141 571 66 136 19 1 8 42 36 105 24 11 55 Jeffrey Howell c 26 .223 .266 .319 88 301 22 67 14 0 5 30 16 59 1 3 53 Jeff Bianchi ss 22 .222 .248 .334 113 437 46 97 23 1 8 46 15 103 11 5 51 Tony Pena ss 28 .234 .258 .309 114 346 39 81 14 3 2 27 10 66 5 4 49 Luis Hernandez# ss 25 .235 .268 .284 127 430 41 101 14 2 1 29 19 58 5 5 45 Derrick Robinson# cf 21 .215 .255 .257 126 521 53 112 15 2 1 26 28 115 42 16 35 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter OFFENSIVE MATRIX Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP2 COMP3 DeJesusDavid CF 25% 26% 31% 15% 4% GreenLenny DamonJohnny UhlaenderTed HouseJ.R. 1B 0% 14% 24% 39% 23% JacksonRon CanizaresBarbaro CervenakMike GordonAlex 3B 19% 37% 25% 13% 5% HowellRoy HattonGrady GarrettWayne ButlerBilly DH 1% 14% 23% 39% 23% TriandosGus KonerkoPaul McMullenKen JacobsMike 1B 11% 29% 22% 25% 13% KryhoskiDick HoffpauirMicah DaubachBrian TeahenMark RF 4% 23% 24% 25% 24% StoneJohn KirklandWillie O'LearyTroy ShealyRyan 1B 0% 8% 22% 48% 22% ZauchinNorm ZuletaJulio DuncanShelley KaaihueKila 1B 3% 17% 20% 32% 28% DelaneyJason SheldonOle KreuzerJosh GuillenJose RF 5% 15% 17% 22% 41% JordanBrian TovarCesar MartinezDave CostaShane RF 1% 9% 15% 24% 52% SummaHomer VukovichGeorge PilarcikAl AvilesMike SS 23% 24% 25% 19% 9% CruzDeivi WilsonJack LoganJohnny GrudzielanekMark 2B 6% 13% 22% 29% 30% WhiteFrank GantnerJim LarkinBarry CrispCoco CF 7% 17% 31% 29% 17% ThomasDerrel AmezagaAlfredo ScottTony MaierMitch CF 2% 8% 26% 33% 31% UnserDel SchumakerSkip ReedJeremy GloadRoss 1B 0% 0% 2% 22% 76% BiittnerLarry JohnstonDoc KollowayDon HulettTug SS 6% 16% 28% 31% 19% McAuliffeDick KellyDon StillwellKurt PenaBrayan C 1% 16% 30% 39% 14% AlomarSandy RodgersBuck HillKoyie GermanEsteban 2B 1% 6% 22% 42% 30% StirnweissSnuffy CarrollJamey BannisterAlan CallaspoAlberto 2B 0% 4% 15% 33% 47% LandestoyRafael De la CruzChris HillDonnie BuckJohn C 1% 18% 28% 35% 17% RiceDel AverillEarl DuncanDave OlivoMiguel C 0% 10% 27% 43% 20% AlfonzoEliezer RiveraMike WidgerChris SmithCorey 3B 1% 5% 11% 19% 64% MacriMatthew ZimmerDon MitchellLee MurphyTommy CF 0% 1% 7% 23% 69% ScottTony CarrChuck SimmonsBrian BloomquistWillie 2B 0% 1% 3% 12% 85% AmaralRich KennedyJunior MooreEddie MoustakasMike 3B 0% 2% 6% 12% 80% DavisLeonard DewittBlake HatchAnthony TupmanMatt C 0% 0% 1% 13% 87% OatesJohnny FabregasJorge CrouseBuck LubanskiChris LF 0% 0% 2% 4% 94% PeralesDaniel ButiaMike ClarkKevin LissonMario 3B 0% 1% 3% 7% 90% KlostermanRyan van KootenJason PopeVan DickersonJoseph RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% BrownDominic ParraGerardo MatuliaJohn DuarteJose CF 0% 0% 0% 3% 96% FermaintCharlie RobinsonTrayvon GodwinAdam BianchiJeffrey 2B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% MattinglyPreston NixJayson CobbLarry HowellJeffrey C 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% PurdomJohn LunarFernando MercadoRichard PenaTony SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% RivasLuis NievesJose MendozaMario HernandezLuis SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% SanchezYunesky OrtizYancarlos FisherMichael RobinsonDerrick CF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% JacksonAnthony WhiteAdam KeoughShane DEFENSE Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf DeJesus* Vg Av Gordon* Av Av House Pr Av Butler Fr Pr Teahen* Av Pr Av Av Kaaihue Fr Jacobs* Pr Shealy Av Guillen Fr Aviles Vg Vg Vg Costa* Av Pr Av Grudzielanek Av Hulett* Vg Av Maier* Vg Av Vg Callaspo# Av Av Fr Pena# Vg Av Fr Fr Fr German Fr Fr Fr Fr Fr Gload* Fr Fr Fr Crisp# Vg Av Buck Av Smith Fr Pr Olivo Av Bloomquist Av Av Av Av Vg Fr Vg Murphy# Vg Av Vg Moustakas* Vg Fr Tupman* Av Lubanski* Av Lisson Vg Vg Fr Dickerson* Fr Pr Fr Duarte Vg Howell Vg Bianchi Av Fr Pena Vg Hernandez# Av Av Robinson# Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Zack Greinke 25 4.11 10 9 27 27 168.2 171 77 22 49 145 110 Gil Meche 30 4.21 11 11 32 32 194.2 194 91 21 69 158 107 Carlos Rosa 24 4.34 7 7 23 20 103.2 111 50 9 33 56 104 Brian Bannister 28 5.24 8 13 27 27 154.2 174 90 23 51 88 86 Blake Wood 23 5.46 4 8 20 20 97.1 110 59 15 39 54 83 Kyle Davies 25 5.52 7 14 27 27 135.1 157 83 18 60 81 82 Brandon Duckworth 33 5.54 5 9 22 17 105.2 122 65 16 45 60 81 Luke Hochevar 25 5.56 6 11 25 25 142.1 164 88 21 52 82 81 Lenny Dinardo* 29 5.79 3 7 24 15 87.0 110 56 12 30 45 78 Dan Cortes 22 5.93 5 10 23 23 107.2 123 71 19 57 63 76 Julio Caesar Pimentel 23 6.05 5 13 27 25 147.1 183 99 25 54 57 75 Matt Wright 27 6.25 4 11 26 22 135.1 164 94 25 62 66 72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joakim Soria 25 2.26 4 1 64 0 67.2 49 17 5 18 74 199 Ron Mahay* 38 3.86 3 2 60 0 65.1 62 28 5 32 52 117 John Bale* 35 4.44 2 3 29 2 46.2 52 23 4 15 33 102 Tim Hamulack* 32 4.50 1 1 26 0 30.0 29 15 4 13 25 100 Jimmy Gobble* 27 4.74 2 3 61 0 49.1 51 26 6 25 45 95 Horacio Ramirez* 29 4.78 2 3 46 0 49.0 57 26 4 16 20 94 Joel Peralta 33 4.79 2 2 55 0 73.1 77 39 12 20 55 94 Kyle Farnsworth 33 4.79 2 3 64 0 62.0 64 33 10 27 58 94 Doug Waechter 28 4.92 3 3 52 0 64.0 74 35 8 19 32 91 Jamey Wright 34 4.99 5 7 43 6 79.1 89 44 7 32 44 90 Rob Tejeda 27 5.02 5 7 31 15 100.1 99 56 13 60 76 90 Yasuhiko Yabuta 36 5.10 4 5 48 0 65.1 71 37 8 33 41 88 Henry Barrera 23 5.12 1 2 37 0 51.0 56 29 6 23 32 88 Oscar Villarreal 27 5.22 2 4 48 2 69.0 77 40 11 31 39 86 Franquelis Osoria 27 5.26 3 6 56 0 75.1 90 44 9 25 35 86 Greg Atencio 27 5.40 3 6 35 4 86.2 97 52 12 44 52 83 Heath Phillips* 27 5.73 5 10 36 17 121.0 145 77 18 50 54 79 Roman Colon 29 5.78 2 5 24 6 67.0 82 43 11 23 32 78 Devon Lowery 26 5.83 1 2 28 0 41.2 46 27 6 26 28 77 * - Throws Left PITCHING MATRIX Player PO TOP MID LOW Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 SoriaJoakim RP 98% 2% 0% StreetHuston NiedenfuerTom EastwickRawly MahayRon RP 40% 46% 14% OroscoJesse FrymanWoodie RemlingerMike GreinkeZack SP 51% 42% 8% SandersonScott NashJim BenesAndy MecheGil SP 45% 49% 6% CulpRay PerezMelido BenesAndy RosaCarlos SP 39% 47% 14% PavanoCarl ChristensonLarry HutchinsonIra BaleJohn RP 18% 46% 36% MurphyRob MartinMorrie GroomBuddy HamulackTim RP 19% 37% 43% PooleJim PainterLance MahayRon GobbleJimmy RP 10% 36% 54% NanceShane HernandezWillie RidgwayJeff RamirezHoracio RP 3% 36% 61% KlinkJoe MagnanteMike PeraltaJoel RP 11% 41% 48% WilksTed ReardonJeff SutterBruce FarnsworthKyle RP 8% 36% 56% Van PoppelTodd CoreyMark FieldNate WaechterDoug RP 5% 36% 59% GrangerWayne CarrollClay WrightJamey RP 3% 34% 63% WickershamDave LabineClem MillerBob TejedaRobinson RP 12% 48% 40% BentonAl BiddleRocky ThompsonJunior YabutaYasuhiko RP 5% 32% 63% ElstonDon HenryDoug LarsenDon BarreraHenry RP 5% 27% 67% GervacioSamuel RogersBrian SuzukiMac VillarrealOscar RP 3% 28% 70% RlealSendy BennettJeff CoatesJim BannisterBrian SP 5% 40% 55% ValdezIsmael SanfordFred BoutonJim OsoriaFranquelis RP 3% 27% 70% ClayKen WilhiteMatt LaGrowLerrin AtencioGreg RP 1% 22% 77% EyreWillie HullEric NunezVladimir WoodBlake SP 6% 33% 61% StaffordBill HookJay GrantMark DaviesKyle SP 3% 33% 64% CaldwellEarl FloydGavin WilliamsBrian DuckworthBrandon SP 3% 30% 67% SlatonJim JeffersonJesse MorenoJulio HochevarLuke SP 2% 31% 67% BoskieShawn SlatonJim RossBuck PhillipsHeath RP 0% 10% 90% Van HekkenAndy AlvarezOscar ColeBert ColonRoman RP 1% 14% 86% PopeJustin ChildersMatt RoweSchoolboy DiNardoLenny SP 2% 20% 78% OttoDave BennettDennis WrightClyde LoweryDevon RP 2% 19% 79% ShaferDavid MootyJake ChakalesBob CortesDaniel SP 1% 17% 81% MahomesPat DrabowskyMoe TorresSalomon PimentelJulio Cesar SP 0% 12% 87% FosterAlan DaigleCasey SanchezJose WrightMatt SP 0% 8% 92% BouknightKip TalbotFred MecheGil --------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) OPS+ 140+ Jacobs 7 Gordon 4 Kaaihue 2 OBP .400+ DeJesus 6 Kaaihue 3 Gordon 2 SLG .550+ Jacobs 7 Gordon 3 Guillen 2 BA .325+ Grudzielanek 13 Aviles 7 DeJesus 7 2B 45+ Teahen 33 Gordon 19 Aviles 14 3B 10+ DeJesus 18 Aviles 6 Teahen 5 HR 30+ Jacobs 31 Gordon 8 Kaaihue 8 SB 50+ Robinson 26 Murphy 3 Lisson 1 ERA+ 140+ (Starters) Greinke 9 Rosa 5 Meche 4 ERA+ 140+ (Relievers) Soria 93 Mahay 22 Peralta 5 K/9 9+ (Starters) Greinke 21 Meche 2 Hochevar 2 K/9 9+ (Relievers) Soria 64 Farnsworth 18 Mahay 16 BB/9 1.5- (Starters) Greinke 1 Rosa 1 BB/9 1.5- (Relievers) Peralta 7 Soria 7 Osoria 1 HR/9 0.7- (Starters) Rosa 49 Meche 19 Davies 12 HR/9 0.7- (Relievers) Soria 71 JWright 56 Barrera 25 All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 21, 2009 at 01:31 PM | 34 comment(s)
Related News: Kansas City, ZIPS
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If Gordon and Butler put up those seasons, this franchise is in huge trouble.
They have Kala, not Kila, right?
Tug Hulett is 6 years old again.
I think Rany has mentioned this potential House/Pena platoon at C, it would be glorious.
Nice to see TPJ has a 1% chance of not sucking.
Where's the defense in the new format? And I miss the "average" lines for the pitchers. I haven't decided if I miss the positional sort enough to whine about it.
I agree about the comments on Moore. Many odd moves for a franchise where they are.
Robinson Tejeda?
Greinke's still got downside risk - CHONE has him just slightly better.
David DeJesus: Johnny Damon. They wish!
Mark Grudzielanek: Frank White. They wish!
Tug Hulett: Dick McAuliffe. Only if he actually is six years old.
Willie Bloomquist: Rich Amaral. I can totally see this (even if Amaral did get more than one extra-base hit per year.)
Tony Pena Jr.: Mario Mendoza. Bullseye!
Carlos Rosa: Carl Pavano. Well, cancel the excitement then.
Joel Peralta: Two guys who combined for 667 saves. Hmm.
Brian Bannister: The obvious comparison is his fellow intellectual Jim Bouton, but I like Fred Sanford. He's comin', 'Lizbeth! He's comin'!!
Really surprised Gordon is "average" defensively. Most metrics I've seen have him as quite terrible.
JR House projection is interesting. Too bad he won't get a single at bat in KC, while Buck and Olivo combine for a .300 OBA for about $6 million combined.
Tony Pena couldn't hold Mario Mendoza's jock.
For what it's worth UZR has Gordon at +2.3 runs/150 over 2300 innings.
It's always a struggle finding the ideal report format - it's hard to strike a balance between information and brevity. I'm hoping this format proves less confusing. Comps aren't too meaningful since I use damned large groups, but they're fun and there's nothing wrong with a little fun.
The cause for pessism on Grienke is that home run rate. It's a higher rate than any season since his rookie year (excluding his six inning 2006) and the walls at Kaufman have moved back since that season. That's rather curious.
I'll take the over on Greinke. I like his chances to beat both projections. He's a better pitcher than Kazmir too, if for no other reason than he actually gets to the 6th inning without having thrown 100+ pitches. For what it's worth, Alex Fernandez and Kevin Appier are among his comparables via the PECOTA system.
Great format by the way. I'm on board...
Except that, of course they are. It's just that on their budgets, they're different kinds of high risks.
I don't think those moves are odd, simply because I think management is perfectly content to threaten to break .500 once in a while. That's their division title: an 82-80 record, a couple of times a decade. I suspect the Royals FO equates risk with "OMG, what if we fail and go 50-112?" And it's clear enough they don't have the smarts to be able to motor along at 70 wins while stockpiling young talent that might all break out at the same time.
Count me among the admirers of the new format!
Give me the over on Crip and I'll parlay that with the under on JR House. What's the payout on that 9 to 5 right?
Donuts are delicious.
It's amazing that a team that's had high draft picks for so long hasn't really developed a "star" level talent since Beltran. Just a thoroughly mediocre team.
I think Dan is saying the Red Sox can't afford to carry on their roster all year long a player about whom they're unclear whether he's high upside or crap. (In this sense, as in most, risk=variance.) They need to be reasonably certain of what they're getting, even if it's mediocrity. The Royals, however, can put a high-risk prospect on the MLB roster to see what they've got. There's no sense blocking him with a veteran mediocrity this year, because they'll have the same question about their prospect next year and be no closer to getting their answer.
Boston's high-risk players are generally high-risk with regard to health (and thus playing time), not quality. For that reason they've stockpiled a bunch of such starting pitchers, with the hopes that any five of them will be active at a given time. The starting pitchers they seek, while high-risk for health, are generally low-risk for quality. Again, they can't take a high risk on quality.
Donuts are delicious.
I guess that would also explain his backside.
Thus; J.D. Drew, Penny, Smoltz, Shilling, and to a lesser extent, Beckett. This is why the Wily Mo Pena trade was a little weird by Boston's standards. Also, sometimes it doesn't work; see also, Gagne, Eric.
Would you consider doing one for RHP Federico Castaneda? He's a deep, deep, deep sleeper to make the Royals pen who's put up decent numbers in Mexico (has yet to play in the states, likely to open in AA).
I'll project him, but I'll still shout curses of your name that will shake the very foundations of Asgard.
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