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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, September 28, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels
One can say the Angels had a fortunate season in 2008 and still had a good team. The hardest challenge the Angels have this offseason is how to upgrade an offense that has entrenched mediocrity in several places rather than a few gaping Willy Taveras-type holes. Looking at OPS+ relative to league average for position (from B-R, of course):Po sOPS+ 1B 109 CF 109 C 105 RF 103 DH 99 SS 92 2B 87 LF 82 3B 69LF and 3B were clearly the biggest problems for the team this year (2B will be better next season). Luckily for the Angels, the division should still be rather weak, they are willing to invest in top players, and it's a much better FA crop than the last few offseasons, so I don't mean to sound doom and gloom.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Mark Teixeira# 1b 29 .292 .390 .517 144 545 91 159 37 1 28 103 83 103 2 0
Vladimir Guerrero rf 33 .305 .372 .504 143 548 81 167 33 2 24 97 54 69 6 2
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ----------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Napoli c 27 .241 .351 .479 112 328 56 79 16 1 20 63 51 100 7 3
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ----------------------------------------------------------------
Torii Hunter cf 32 .278 .337 .468 149 564 86 157 37 2 22 91 46 102 15 6
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ----------------------------------------------------------------
Howie Kendrick 2b 25 .315 .342 .433 117 441 61 139 30 2 6 57 14 78 11 4
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ----------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ----------------------------------------------------------------
Garret Anderson* lf 37 .288 .328 .430 115 444 56 128 25 1 12 62 27 64 2 1
Gary Matthews Jr.# rf 34 .268 .340 .409 123 455 65 122 25 3 11 61 47 87 10 3
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ----------------------------------------------------------------
Chone Figgins# 3b 31 .280 .359 .362 126 492 80 138 20 4 4 51 59 86 36 12
Maicer Izturis# ss 28 .279 .344 .381 106 362 55 101 19 3 4 41 36 38 10 3
Juan Rivera lf 30 .268 .313 .446 98 325 40 87 19 0 13 52 21 42 1 3
Kendry Morales# 1b 26 .281 .317 .433 112 406 45 114 23 0 13 59 19 60 1 3
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ----------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE C --------------- c ----------------------------------------------------------------
Reggie Willits# lf 28 .268 .365 .328 112 299 52 80 13 1 1 27 45 56 15 6
Freddy Sandoval# 3b 26 .267 .325 .378 127 487 59 130 28 1 8 56 40 83 13 7
Robb Quinlan 3b 32 .276 .322 .367 80 199 22 55 7 1 3 22 12 29 3 2
Christopher Petit rf 24 .249 .305 .401 97 374 44 93 19 1 12 51 24 62 13 5
Sean Rodriguez 2b 24 .235 .305 .403 134 489 69 115 26 1 18 71 39 118 10 5
Hank Conger# dh 21 .256 .285 .413 97 375 36 96 20 0 13 54 15 62 5 4
Terry Evans rf 27 .248 .296 .392 96 355 40 88 19 1 10 46 21 108 14 6
Bobby Wilson c 26 .253 .306 .362 99 348 31 88 20 0 6 39 25 57 2 2
Brandon Wood ss 24 .229 .283 .393 145 532 62 122 22 1 21 77 38 148 9 3
Dee Brown* lf 31 .240 .298 .362 97 359 40 86 18 1 8 41 25 71 5 2
Matthew Brown 1b 26 .241 .292 .386 16 482 52 116 30 2 12 61 31 116 6 5
Erick Aybar# 2b 25 .265 .304 .356 122 385 54 102 18 4 3 39 18 56 10 5
Bradley Coon* cf 26 .258 .320 .311 100 411 54 106 11 1 3 38 33 64 27 15
Adam Pavkovich rf 27 .230 .284 .351 107 365 39 84 18 1 8 42 25 83 5 4
Jeff Mathis c 26 .214 .274 .340 114 374 48 80 21 1 8 42 29 95 2 2
Peter Bourjos cf 22 .239 .270 .345 95 397 47 95 17 2 7 43 14 72 30 12
Ryan Budde c 29 .200 .259 .303 61 185 16 37 10 0 3 18 12 46 2 1
Hainley Statia# ss 23 .222 .261 .289 103 419 42 93 17 1 3 35 22 48 16 7
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Teixeira# Vg
Guerrero Av
Napoli Pr
Hunter Av
Kendrick Fr Av
Anderson* Av
Sarge Lite# Av Fr Av
Figgins# Av Av Av
Izturis# Fr Av Av
Rivera Av Av
Morales# Fr Fr Fr
Willits# Vg Pr Av
Sandoval# Av Av
Quinlan Av Pr Fr Fr
Petit Fr Fr
Rodriguez Av Av Fr
Conger# Pr
Evans Av Pr Pr
Wilson Fr Av
Wood Av Fr
Brown* Av Av
Brown Av Pr Fr
Aybar# Av Av Av
Coon* Vg Fr
Pavkovich Av Fr Av Vg
Mathis Fr
Bourjos Vg Vg Vg
Budde Vg Av
Statia# Vg Vg
Player Spotlight - Howie Kendrick
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .342 .372 .516 131 494 81 169 42 4 12 78 19 79 16 5 132
Mean .315 .342 .433 117 441 61 139 30 2 6 57 14 78 11 4 104
Pessimistic (15%) .291 .315 .386 101 381 38 111 22 1 4 42 10 75 7 4 86
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Johnny Hodapp, Dave Cash
Player Spotlight - Mark Teixeira
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .323 .426 .590 152 575 113 186 43 1 36 127 97 90 2 0 164
Mean .292 .390 .517 144 545 91 159 37 1 28 103 83 103 2 0 137
Pessimistic (15%) .264 .353 .447 130 492 59 130 30 0 20 80 64 106 1 0 109
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Norm Siebern, Kent Hrbek
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Francisco Rodriguez 27 2.75 5 1 74 0 72.0 56 22 4 35 91
Scot Shields 33 3.47 7 3 66 0 70.0 63 27 7 28 72
John Lackey 30 3.57 13 8 29 29 194.0 187 77 20 48 162
Buzz Oliver* 38 3.57 4 2 52 0 68.0 66 27 6 18 49
Kelvim Escobar 33 3.57 10 6 21 21 141.0 136 56 11 42 124
Ervin Santana 26 3.62 10 6 23 23 154.0 142 62 15 41 136
Jason Bulger 30 3.74 3 2 48 0 53.0 45 22 4 30 64
Jose Arredondo 25 3.75 7 4 63 0 72.0 68 30 7 28 56
Jered Weaver 26 3.75 13 8 30 30 180.0 174 75 19 49 148
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.11 -----------------------------------------------
Joe Saunders* 28 4.22 12 11 31 31 192.0 201 90 21 57 120
Justin Speier 35 4.26 3 3 56 1 57.0 55 27 9 20 52
Darren O'Day 26 4.50 3 4 45 0 56.0 62 28 5 18 32
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.63 -----------------------------------------------
Jon Garland 29 4.71 10 11 30 30 191.0 223 100 20 52 91
Richard Thompson 24 4.91 2 2 27 1 44.0 45 24 6 18 35
Shane Loux 29 4.99 5 7 26 11 101.0 119 56 12 30 37
Stephen Marek 25 5.14 4 5 55 0 63.0 67 36 9 32 42
Nicholas Adenhart 22 5.16 9 12 28 28 164.0 186 94 15 82 93
Giancarlo Alvarado 31 5.17 5 6 23 20 115.0 122 66 16 59 86
Jordan Walden 21 5.17 5 6 23 20 115.0 122 66 16 59 86
Kevin Jepsen 24 5.21 3 5 48 0 57.0 60 33 5 40 38
Nick Green 24 5.26 7 10 29 29 166.0 194 97 24 47 83
Henry Bonilla 30 5.47 4 7 37 11 97.0 112 59 14 40 50
Dustin Moseley 27 5.74 8 13 28 27 149.0 179 95 25 56 94
Chris Bootcheck 30 5.79 2 3 45 1 70.0 81 45 9 36 51
Alex Serrano 28 5.86 2 3 30 0 43.0 55 28 8 9 21
Kasey Olenberger 31 5.95 4 7 28 18 121.0 143 80 22 51 60
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - John Lackey
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 2.37 19 6 32 32 224 196 59 15 39 215 189
Mean 3.57 13 8 29 29 194 187 77 20 48 162 126
Pessimistic (15%) 4.92 8 9 24 24 150 165 82 22 51 119 91
Top Near-Age Comps: Jack McDowell, Frank Lary
Player Spotlight - Ervin Santana
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.05 13 5 25 25 174 148 59 15 39 162 147
Mean 3.62 10 6 23 23 154 142 62 15 41 136 124
Pessimistic (15%) 4.54 7 7 20 20 127 131 64 16 41 106 99
Top Near-Age Comps: Javier Vazquez, Erik Hanson
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
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And already I've got a request ...any chance you could add OPS+ and ERA+ to the standard projection template?
2B will be better next season
If Kendrick can stay in the lineup.
And you're not concerned about projecting Kendrick to a 372 BABIP? That's Ty Cobb territory I believe.
And I know it's a trivial difference but I think some Angels fans around here will burn you at the stake for projecting Matthews as a better hitter than Rivera. :-)
And what's the joke I'm missing on Buzz Oliver?
The Angels really are in good shape at the core. They should have above league average hitters at all the up the middle/defense first positions, C, 2B, SS, CF.
Also check out what a stud Mike Napoli is becoming. :-)
Oops, I talked about that trade when it happened, too!
Yeah, that surprised me too!
I had totally forgotten about Buzz Oliver. LOL
Buzz has been an occasional nickname in baseball history and I figure that if a player who attracts a swarm of bees which ends up in a game being called can't be nicknamed Buzz, nobody can.
Move Figgins to LF/DH/UT or to another team?
Is this a joke? I didn't see him play, but the stats don't appear very good. 700 2nd half OPS.
Well, it is double his first-half OPS!
Wood did actually have a nice second half in the minors.
2008, zMLE, 1st Half: 215/249/380
2008, zMLE, 2nd Half: 272/345/476
ZiPS is simply going to be skeptical until Wood does it for more than 2 months.
The strikeouts are killing him.
-- MWE
First of all, which AL shortstops do you expect to be significantly better than that?
Second of all how hard should it be to blow a .229/ .283/ .393 line 'out of the water.'
While he hasn't really cut down on his K's, he did manage to more than double his walk rate in the second half. A lot of guys have struck out a lot in the minors and done well in the majors, the key seems to have been adding in a lot of walks.
His range is not that great at shortstop though, especially in comparison after watching Aybar.
Steps in the right direction although my eyeballing of these guys is that they often don't see higher K rates in the majors -- counterintuitive for sure and Mike/Dan will know much better than I so feel free to contradict.
Still, if he's gonna K 30% of his ABs, he's still gotta hit about 360 on-contact to get a BA of just 250. If he can add enough walks and power (say 250/320/450 overall), that's fine for a 3B -- that is 2008 Mark Reynolds basically. Entertainingly, although he took a much different approach, it's also basically a neutral Vinny Castilla. If his defense is north of Reynolds, though almost certainly south of Castilla, that's a fine, league-averageish 3B.
But that's still a 360/640 on-contact line -- doable but probably near his upside, possibly with lower BA but higher SLG. Would you settle for Mark Bellhorn with fewer Ks and hopefully as many walks? That would be about 245/350/420 with the walks, 245/320/420 with Wood's most recent walk-rate. Serviceable at 2B/SS/3B.
And don't scoff. At 22, Bellhorn hit 328/469/564 in AAA; not so great, but not bad, at 23; hurt at 24; at 25 in AAA, 266/396/521. Reasonably Wood-esque.
Bellhorn had exactly one good season in the majors.
It is extremely unusual to find a player below 1 K/4 AB in the minors who can sustain success in the majors. Ryan Howard is about the only one that I have been able to find, and Wood is no Howard.
-- MWE
-- MWE
Darren, Tex has a ton of fielding value that has to be taken into account: Dewan had him at a huge 24 plays above average this year.
And -4 last year, and +2 the year before.
Found some:
Jack Cust 33%
Mike Napoli 32
Tim Salmon 32
Darryl Strawberry 28
Derrek Lee 27
Larry Walker 27
Travis Hafner 26
Albert Belle 25
Carlos Pena 25
Tougher question: How many players under the age of 24 slug .575 or better in the PCL, and not have at least a few good years in the majors?
Year +/- UZR2003 +23 0
2004 +3 -1
2005 +12 +11
2006 +4 +3
2007 +2 -2
2008 +18 n/a
Chris Dial's Zone Rating-based RSpt, which has a very high correlation to UZR since they both draw on the STATS data set, had Tex at +12 through September 2. So if we multiply that by 1.2 and take that as a substitute for UZR in 2008, and then average the 12 numbers, we get +7 runs a year, which is just about exactly where I'd have guessed he would be on a true talent basis. And obviously, Tex's anecdotal reputation supports that notion.
Surprised you didn't think of this one, Mike, but Craig Wilson was just barely over the line. 25.9 up through 2001, at which point he established himself in the majors.
The larger point is still a good one, though.
God I hope not. Joe Crede of the bad back, who will be 31, and of the lifetime .306 OBP. He's a good defender when healthy, and has some pop, but a move from Comiskey (or whtever it's called) to Angel Stadium will hurt his power totals.
Wood might not be any better, but at least he's young and might improve, and if he doesn't work out there is no money wasted. I would be OK with Figgins being replaced if the reason was to save money and resign Teixiera. I'm OK with Wood/Rodriguez (and maybe Sandoval/Brown) battling for the position because the Angels see a need to get younger. But replacing Figgins with Crede should be a non-starter.
With two guys on this list the Angels must be thinking when you have guys who strikeout this much it gives more time for the speedy guys to steal a base. A productive / scrappy strikeout. </Beane counter perspective>
I'd call it two as well -- or one outstanding, one above-average -- but it's somewhat besides the point. For his career, he was a 92 OPS+ which is a bit below-average for a 2B/3B but tolerable. He played 731 games. That's basically what I'm asking -- would Angels fans be satisfied with 5 seasons of average-ish 2B/3B out of Wood?
It is extremely unusual to find a player below 1 K/4 AB in the minors who can sustain success in the majors.
Well, how are you defining "success" and "sustain"? You know better than most of us the track record of prospects. 731 games of 92 OPS+ and average defense at 2B/3B mostly is "sustained success" compared to most prospects. Is Russell Branyan a success? (he's K'd way more than 1/4 in the minors) And this sort of hitting profile is much more useful if it's a 2B or 3B (or of course C or SS). And yes, the Ks have to come with a healthy dose of walks.
(Branyan is an extreme case -- one of the greatest on-contact hitters of all-time at 382/805).
But with me you're mainly preaching to the choir. It's very hard to be average much less "successful" in the majors when K'ing 1/4 or more. I always poop on prospects like Wood, McPherson, Wily Mo Pena, etc. -- at least when folks speak of them as if they're gonna tear it up in the majors. But I do recognize that Wood/McPherson might be average-ish as long as they can play a decent 3B.
With two guys on this list the Angels
They also gave us Dallas McPherson.
Mike Napoli seems to be a pretty good slugger these days. His rate stats are probably higher than they should be because of his abbreviated season, but his power is legitimate.
Also of note, I really hate Jeff Mathis... I don't know how any Angel fan couldn't. I'll probably hate him even more when he goes 0-4 in game 2. hah
Soriano I guess, and he got some development time in Japan, too.
You may be right, but I look at that 69 OPS+ and figure Crede is a good bet to be better than that, .306 OBA or no. On a team that's otherwise pretty good, he'd be a solid piece of the puzzle...but of course his back is the main consideration.
Mo Vaughn?
"The Yankees?"
That's a tough one. Is Bernie Williams a slugger?
<i>Is Bernie Williams a slugger?
Jay Buhner.
But seems to me the Angels develop these guys just fine (they do well up through AAA as many of this type do). If I find anything odd, it's that they develop this type at all when they clearly seem to ahbor K's (by the modern standard) at the MLB level. Either this speaks well of them -- they're open to production of any variety -- or it speaks ill -- they don't have enough sense to trade top prospects that they'll never play on a regular basis.
Given that projection, he's basically the poor man's Adam Dunn. The poor man's Adam Dunn at C would be nice but I'll go out on a limb and guess that he doesn't get much praise for his defense. And the Angels don't strike me as the sort of team that is fond of poor defense at C. That bat would play fine at DH or 1B ... and if they don't re-sign Teixeira, they might give him a look at 1B (a "natural" spot for failed Cs). I suppose 3B is the other "natural" spot and another place they have a hole.
Whatever they decide, the worst decision would seem to be another season as a half-time C.
Napoli's defense isn't great, but it's not bad enough to keep him off the field. He doesn't have the "tools" to be as a good a catcher as Mathis could be- check their assist numbers this year for a crude distinction. However, Mathis' poor offense, combined with his affinity for playing catch with Torii Hunter, will probably cost him a good chunk of his half of the platoon.
That said, unless the Angels get completely shut down offensively in game one of the ALCS, expect to see Mathis getting the (Santana) start in game two.
Hanley
I don't know why people keep saying the Angels abhor the k, as if they wanted a lineup of 9 Placido Polancos or something. The current team has a lot of whiffers on it.
They were 11th in Ks this year; 12th in 2007; 11th in 2006; 13th in 2005; 14th in 2004; 14th in 2003; 14th in 2002.
They avoid Ks.
This year's team was led by Hunter with just 108 Ks. The only "regular" with a K-rate worse than 1 per 5 was Matthews (about 1 per 4.5). Only the part-timers (Napoli, Rodriguez and Wood) had K-rates worse than 1 per 4. The Angels highest K total after 2002 is Erstad with 109 in 2005; in 2003 and 2004, they didn't have anyone K 100 times. 100 Ks is a bad month for Adam Dunn. :-)
Yes, a number of their kids (not that Napoli is a kid) have high K rates and maybe that's fine with the Angels. But, by modern standards, they avoid the K. Now if Dunn lands here (a logical spot for him unless they resign Teixeira) ...
I think you can make a case that the Stoneman teams did this, but Reagins is more interested in adding power to the lineup and overall production than keeping the K totals down. The catchers combined for 160 whiffs. The best contact hitters from 2007 were Cabrera and Kotchman, and both were traded. Teixiera strikes out significantly more than Kotchman, but right now nobody's compaining about that.
In some PCL parks .575 is not all that impressive.
Wood just hit .296/.375/.595, but his team hit .285/.351/.454 (while giving up an ERA of 4.80 and going 83-60). That's a very high run context. He had teammates who hit .335/.389/.514 and .320/.373/.580 and .306/.397/.645 (ok only 248 at bats)
Compare Wood to someone like Costanzo (another fellow MWE hates due to the Ks)-
Costanzo hit .270/.368/.490 in AA at 23, but just .261/.333/.395 in Norfolk (IL) at age 24.
The IL is notably less hitter friendly to the PCL and Norfolk is a terrible hitter's park compared to other IL venues. (Wood hit .276/.355/.552 in the TL and .272/.338/.497 his first go around in the PCL)
Wood is better than Costanzo- but since he's generally played in far more hitter friendly environs, by not nearly as much as his raw numbers would suggest- he's closer to Costanzo than he is to a good MLB hitter.
Well, I never said they did. But ... there is no counter-case to that hypothesis except perhaps Napoli. They have not acquired a single high-whiff player to my knowledge -- they have developed a good number and, so far, Napoli is the only one who's hit at the ML level (and I don't think they've made any of them a full-time player yet ... Napoli's been hitting for 3 years but hasn't yet had more than 325 PA). Torii Hunter is not a high-whiff player, he whiffs an average amount. For the Angels, Teixeira K'd once every 8 ABs ... that is a VERY low K-rate in today's game. For his career, he's about 1 per 5 which, again, is around average these days.
It could well be that Reagins is different; it could well be that Stoneman never really cared that much. But so far, the Angels consistently avoid the strikeout and they have acquired no players that would lead one to believe that there has been any change in philosophy. (For the record, for his career, Matthews is about 1 per 5, this was a bad year for him K-wise ... and every other way.)
And before we trot out the "everyone is trying to avoid the K", the Angels rank in BB the last several years has been 12, 9, 9, 9, 14, 9, 11. They aren't "avoiding the K" they're "putting the ball in play." The Angels are a BIP team. They have been for a long time. Unless my memory is off, Hatcher has stated this as his philosophy many times. The 2008 team has given us no reason to think this has changed. The Angels have been below average, often well below average, in both Ks and BBs for the last 8 seasons ... that's intentional, not an accident.
All of which is fine. That works for them, they find players that fit with that approach. What's odd is that they have developed several players who do not fit with that approach. Maybe that's a sign they would be fine with a productive high-K hitter; maybe it's a sign they aren't preaching BIP throughout their system; maybe it's a sign of a problem. I don't know. I do know they've yet to give one a full-time job (except maybe McPherson who got hurt at the wrong time).
But the only thing anyone can remotely point to on their ML roster as evidence that they aren't a K-averse team is that both their Cs K a lot. Of course they're both cheap. And of course they still manage to play the one who can't hit half the time. (Yes, Wood and Rodriguez but those guys only got that much playing time due to injuries to others.)
Kevin Youkilis says hello. Also, Pedroia slugged 493 out of second base this year.
Napoli's limited playing time has nothing to do with his K rate (especially since Mathis doesn't make any more contact). The big reason is health, and the secondary reason is Scioscia trying to keep his catchers fresh, and having the catchers work exclusively with certain pitchers.
Don't you mean the other way? That's a .250 K/AB ratio; you want that denominator as large as possible and the numerator as small as possible.
I could take that at SS.
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