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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, November 15, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers
Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier combined to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, which reflects well on Ned Colletti, even if he put as many barriers in front of the latter playing as possible. The real challenge for Colletti is this offseason, with two of the most important pitchers he inherited, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, both gone and a infield that isn't championship quality. The team was apparently short on cash this season, but a lot of contracts come off the books and Colletti will still have more money to play with than any other team in the division. However, if his starter and infield signings turn out as badly as the Pierre and Jones signings in the outfield, Colletti's fortunes could change very quickly. The team also needs to jettison the Martin-to-3B idea - with the Dodgers' spare catching prospect an All-Star playing for Tampa Bay, actually resting Martin once in a while might be the better idea.
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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
EXCELLENT
Russell Martin c 26 .281 .374 .430 154 540 85 152 31 2 15 72 76 82 16 7 Av
FAIR
A.J. Ellis c 28 .248 .330 .363 92 314 37 78 14 2 6 34 34 46 0 3 Vg
POOR
Gary Bennett c 37 .237 .284 .350 32 80 7 19 3 0 2 8 6 8 0 0 Fr
Danny Ardoin c 34 .209 .282 .302 70 182 19 38 8 0 3 16 14 57 1 0 Vg
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FIRST BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
AVERAGE
James Loney* 1b 25 .295 .347 .456 159 594 67 175 36 6 16 82 48 86 5 2 Av
Casey Blake 3b 35 .277 .346 .458 145 528 68 146 32 2 20 80 49 113 4 2 Av
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FAIR
Nomar Garciaparra ss 35 .278 .334 .420 84 295 38 82 15 0 9 39 24 24 2 1 Av
POOR
John Lindsey 1b 32 .254 .320 .427 108 389 46 99 20 1 15 56 30 71 0 0 Av
Terry Tiffee# 3b 30 .270 .308 .386 97 370 39 100 20 1 7 42 19 48 0 1 Av
Mark Sweeney* 1b 39 .220 .311 .303 91 132 13 29 6 1 1 11 16 31 1 0 Fr
Kevin Howard* 2b 28 .240 .293 .350 93 329 34 79 13 1 7 35 24 48 4 4 Av
Joshua Bell# 3b 22 .228 .277 .367 93 360 39 82 15 1 11 43 25 79 5 2 Fr
Austin Gallagher* 3b 20 .224 .270 .361 86 352 30 79 24 0 8 39 23 73 1 6 Fr
Danny Ardoin c 34 .209 .282 .302 70 182 19 38 8 0 3 16 14 57 1 0 Fr
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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Jeff Kent 2b 41 .281 .342 .427 111 405 47 114 24 1 11 53 33 49 0 1 Fr
FAIR
Blake Dewitt* 3b 23 .255 .312 .401 143 521 57 133 24 2 16 67 43 75 4 1 Fr
POOR
Tony Abreu 2b 24 .264 .304 .368 96 345 43 91 23 2 3 34 17 48 3 1 Av
Ivan DeJesus ss 22 .254 .317 .337 135 511 70 130 19 1 7 50 46 75 16 3 Av
Chin-lung Hu ss 25 .255 .290 .370 129 427 56 109 19 3 8 47 21 52 8 2 Vg
Angel Chavez 3b 27 .254 .290 .370 120 457 50 116 23 0 10 51 21 75 5 3 Fr
Angel Berroa ss 31 .251 .296 .349 117 398 43 100 19 1 6 40 20 69 3 2 Fr
Luis Maza 2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Fr
Kevin Howard* 2b 28 .240 .293 .350 93 329 34 79 13 1 7 35 24 48 4 4 Fr
Jaime Pedroza# 3b 22 .227 .272 .347 130 502 61 114 23 2 11 54 25 24 14 6 Fr
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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Russell Martin c 26 .281 .374 .430 154 540 85 152 31 2 15 72 76 82 16 7 Fr
Casey Blake 3b 35 .277 .346 .458 145 528 68 146 32 2 20 80 49 113 4 2 Fr
AVERAGE
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Nomar Garciaparra ss 35 .278 .334 .420 84 295 38 82 15 0 9 39 24 24 2 1 Fr
POOR
Blake Dewitt* 3b 23 .255 .312 .401 143 521 57 133 24 2 16 67 43 75 4 1 Vg
Terry Tiffee# 3b 30 .270 .308 .386 97 370 39 100 20 1 7 42 19 48 0 1 Fr
Tony Abreu 2b 24 .264 .304 .368 96 345 43 91 23 2 3 34 17 48 3 1 Av
Chin-lung Hu ss 25 .255 .290 .370 129 427 56 109 19 3 8 47 21 52 8 2 Vg
Angel Chavez 3b 27 .254 .290 .370 120 457 50 116 23 0 10 51 21 75 5 3 Av
Angel Berroa ss 31 .251 .296 .349 117 398 43 100 19 1 6 40 20 69 3 2 Fr
Luis Maza 2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Av
Kevin Howard* 2b 28 .240 .293 .350 93 329 34 79 13 1 7 35 24 48 4 4 Fr
Joshua Bell# 3b 22 .228 .277 .367 93 360 39 82 15 1 11 43 25 79 5 2 Pr
Austin Gallagher* 3b 20 .224 .270 .361 86 352 30 79 24 0 8 39 23 73 1 6 Fr
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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
EXCELLENT
Rafael Furcal# ss 31 .286 .358 .411 105 433 72 124 22 4 8 52 48 57 22 5 Av
VERY GOOD
Nomar Garciaparra ss 35 .278 .334 .420 84 295 38 82 15 0 9 39 24 24 2 1 Fr
FAIR
Tony Abreu 2b 24 .264 .304 .368 96 345 43 91 23 2 3 34 17 48 3 1 Fr
Ivan DeJesus ss 22 .254 .317 .337 135 511 70 130 19 1 7 50 46 75 16 3 Av
Chin-lung Hu ss 25 .255 .290 .370 129 427 56 109 19 3 8 47 21 52 8 2 Vg
Angel Chavez 3b 27 .254 .290 .370 120 457 50 116 23 0 10 51 21 75 5 3 Fr
POOR
Angel Berroa ss 31 .251 .296 .349 117 398 43 100 19 1 6 40 20 69 3 2 Fr
Luis Maza 2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Fr
Jaime Pedroza# 3b 22 .227 .272 .347 130 502 61 114 23 2 11 54 25 24 14 6 Pr
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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS LF RF
EXCELLENT
Manny Ramirez lf 37 .297 .394 .521 136 495 77 147 25 1 28 91 74 110 1 0 Pr
VERY GOOD
Andre Ethier* rf 27 .292 .363 .475 148 497 73 145 32 4 17 75 53 87 3 3 Av Av
Matt Kemp cf 24 .295 .342 .477 150 555 87 164 34 5 19 83 40 124 28 9 Av
James Loney* 1b 25 .295 .347 .456 159 594 67 175 36 6 16 82 48 86 5 2 Av
Casey Blake 3b 35 .277 .346 .458 145 528 68 146 32 2 20 80 49 113 4 2 Av
FAIR
John Lindsey 1b 32 .254 .320 .427 108 389 46 99 20 1 15 56 30 71 0 0 Fr
POOR
John-Ford Griffin* lf 29 .238 .302 .412 103 369 44 88 18 2 14 51 33 92 2 1 Fr Fr
Xavier Paul* cf 24 .260 .312 .384 122 469 61 122 21 2 11 56 34 101 21 6 Av Av
Terry Tiffee# 3b 30 .270 .308 .386 97 370 39 100 20 1 7 42 19 48 0 1 Fr
Juan Pierre* cf 31 .282 .325 .346 138 532 68 150 19 6 1 46 29 32 48 13 Vg
Delwyn Young# rf 27 .249 .297 .390 124 385 45 96 25 1 9 46 26 82 2 2 Pr Pr
Jason Repko cf 28 .235 .308 .341 104 323 42 76 14 1 6 33 25 73 15 3 Vg Vg
Jamie Hoffmann rf 24 .245 .295 .366 129 489 54 120 18 1 13 56 34 69 25 8 Av Av
Luis Maza 2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Av Av
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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Matt Kemp cf 24 .295 .342 .477 150 555 87 164 34 5 19 83 40 124 28 9 Av
AVERAGE
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Andruw Jones cf 32 .225 .318 .428 115 395 59 89 18 1 20 61 48 104 3 0 Fr
FAIR
Xavier Paul* cf 24 .260 .312 .384 122 469 61 122 21 2 11 56 34 101 21 6 Av
Juan Pierre* cf 31 .282 .325 .346 138 532 68 150 19 6 1 46 29 32 48 13 Av
POOR
Jason Repko cf 28 .235 .308 .341 104 323 42 76 14 1 6 33 25 73 15 3 Av
Jamie Hoffmann rf 24 .245 .295 .366 129 489 54 120 18 1 13 56 34 69 25 8 Fr
Luis Maza 2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Fr
* - Hits Left
# - Switch-Hitter
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
Chad Billingsley 24 3.35 15 8 33 33 204.0 186 76 14 73 195
Derek Lowe 36 3.73 13 10 31 30 193.0 195 80 17 50 130
Hiroki Kuroda 34 3.84 10 8 29 29 171.0 177 73 14 42 103
MIDDLE THIRD
Clayton Kershaw* 21 4.21 8 8 32 31 154.0 149 72 15 67 123
Brad Penny 31 4.47 8 10 26 25 149.0 163 74 15 50 94
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Greg Maddux 43 4.53 10 11 30 30 177.0 204 89 19 26 82
Jason Schmidt 36 4.64 3 3 12 12 64.0 66 33 9 26 53
BOTTOM THIRD
Eric Stults* 29 5.12 6 10 24 22 130.0 149 74 19 47 85
Jason Johnson 35 5.13 7 10 29 21 144.0 169 82 20 44 83
Heath Totten 30 5.42 5 8 22 16 98.0 126 59 13 23 40
James McDonald 24 5.46 6 11 30 27 140.0 153 85 27 53 100
Miguel Pinango 26 6.00 5 10 25 24 129.0 159 86 24 45 66
Mario Alvarez 25 6.27 3 8 19 13 79.0 95 55 11 44 37
Justin Orenduff 26 6.80 2 7 22 17 86.0 105 65 20 42 57
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
Takashi Saito 39 2.25 4 1 47 0 48.0 32 12 3 14 57
Jonathan Broxton 25 2.78 6 2 78 0 81.0 64 25 5 29 101
Hong-chih Kuo* 27 2.92 5 2 34 6 71.0 57 23 5 27 83
MIDDLE THIRD
Joe Beimel* 32 3.29 4 2 74 0 63.0 63 23 2 22 35
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Cory Wade 26 4.30 2 3 54 1 90.0 91 43 15 23 59
Scott Proctor 32 4.37 3 4 65 0 70.0 67 34 10 34 68
Ramon Troncoso 26 4.38 4 5 51 0 74.0 81 36 5 26 43
BOTTOM THIRD
Mike Koplove 32 4.50 2 3 49 0 60.0 62 30 7 24 41
Chan Ho Park 36 4.57 2 3 52 0 65.0 68 33 10 24 51
Scott Elbert* 23 5.06 2 2 22 2 32.0 31 18 4 19 29
Dwayne Pollok 28 5.51 4 7 48 6 98.0 122 60 15 23 40
Yhency Brazoban 29 5.68 0 1 18 0 19.0 21 12 3 8 14
Greg Miller* 24 5.82 2 3 45 5 65.0 65 42 5 71 50
B.J. LaMura 28 5.88 3 5 31 6 75.0 84 49 12 39 51
* - Throws Left
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Player Spotlight - Andre Ethier
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .292 .363 .475 148 497 73 145 32 4 17 75 53 87 3 3 117
Offense %
STAR 53
AVG 75
REP LV 96
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 1 >.400 9 >10 4 >200 0
>140 10 >.375 34 >5 30 >150 62
>120 42 >.350 70
>100 83 >.325 93 2B %
>80 98 >.300 99 >45 6
>60 100 >30 79
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 1 >.550 7 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 9 >.500 28 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 34 >.450 65 >30 6 >30 0
>.275 69 >.400 91 >20 38 >10 8
>.250 94 >.350 98 >10 91
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Harold Baines, Wally Moon
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Player Spotlight - Matt Kemp
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .295 .342 .477 150 555 87 164 34 5 19 83 40 124 28 9 111
Offense %
STAR 55
AVG 87
REP LV 99
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 1 >10 4 >200 0
>140 5 >.375 12 >5 28 >150 77
>120 30 >.350 40
>100 69 >.325 72 2B %
>80 94 >.300 92 >45 12
>60 100 >30 67
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 8 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 11 >.500 29 >40 0 >50 8
>.300 38 >.450 63 >30 6 >30 48
>.275 71 >.400 90 >20 40 >10 96
>.250 92 >.350 99 >10 90
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Andre Dawson, Tommie Agee
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Player Spotlight - Chad Billinglsey
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.35 15 8 33 33 204 186 76 14 73 195 129
ERA %
Top 1/3 72
Mid 1/3 16
Bot 1/3 12
ERA+ % BB/9 %
>150 28 <1.5 2
>140 36 <2.0 6
>130 44 <2.5 18
>120 55 <3.0 37
>110 67 <3.5 54
>100 79 <4.0 72
>90 87
>80 93 HR/9 %
>70 97 <0.5 19
<1.0 80
K/9 % <1.5 97
>9 33 <2.0 100
>8 59
>7 80
>6 92
Top Near-Age Comps: Steve Busby, Burt Hooton
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Player Spotlight - Clayton Kershaw
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.27 8 8 27 26 154 150 73 16 65 124 102
ERA %
Top 1/3 37
Mid 1/3 31
Bot 1/3 32
ERA+ % BB/9 %
>150 6 <1.5 1
>140 8 <2.0 5
>130 13 <2.5 8
>120 21 <3.0 20
>110 33 <3.5 40
>100 47 <4.0 53
>90 65
>80 82 HR/9 %
>70 93 <0.5 6
<1.0 58
K/9 % <1.5 92
>9 5 <2.0 100
>8 22
>7 51
>6 67
Top Near-Age Comps: Ray Sadecki, Dave McNally
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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
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ZiPS certainly doesn't think so.
Don't forget that Meloan was traded to the Indians in the Blake deal.
Essentially, a weighted mean.
Below average offense plus slightly above average pitching equals a .500 team at best, in my opinion.
Dan, was the BJ Lamura line a typo? I only ask because it seems very optimistic and is identical to Brad Penny's.
The 2009 Dodgers can win 82 games as currently constructed. However, I am not sure that will be enough to win the NL west.
Now the Dodgers might make some additions through trades or free agent signings (although with Colletti's track record, it's questionable whether any personnel additions will be beneficial). But "as the roster is currently constructed" I don't see how they project to be anything more than a .500 team.
I love this, BTW:
SS
VERY GOOD
Nomar Garciaparra
I've thought for the past several years that teams have overreacted to his injury risk and defensive struggles. Someone should plunk at SS for all the games that he is able to play. They'll get a pretty good player out of it. LA could do a lot worse.
Yes, he hits like a 4th outfielder and fields like a DH. That combination is a 4 letter word, containing a series of the letter A.
Last season, Nomar got 29 starts (106 ABs) at short, and he hit... 236/270/396/666. His Range Factor was below average, too.
I do think it would be fantastic to see a single overall projection with offense and defense included measured in total runs, but I don't know if the defensive ratings here are specific enough to do so.
Yeah, I was surprised that his projection was worse than his age 22 season. I know that the formulas shouldn't be ignored if we don't like the projection, and he was less than stellar coming through the system - but he also produced acceptably overall last season in 421 plate appearances, and will be a year older. I would take the over on the projection, personally.
That sounds more realistic.
Those 106 ABs are a pretty tiny sample. I doubt such splits mean anything.
And Range Factor?
If "average" includes backups, isn't it plausible that the majority of starters are better than average?
I'm talking about compared to starters, even. Compared to backups, it would've been even nuttier.
Totally disagree. These are offensive projections and everyone knows that this is what they are. The defensive rating is just an addendum.
Also, there's no way a projection system can be "optimistic" or "pessimistic" assuming it's remotely well-constructed, meaning that the pitching totals and hitting totals balance (i.e., total H for batters equal total H for pitchers, total RC for batters equal total RA for pitchers, etc.) As long as that's the case, you've got a league average (RA/ERA/OBP/SLG), and you determine each player's value based on that average. If the system seems "optimistic" for hitters, then it just means it's projecting a high run environment, and it should then seem "pessimistic" for pitchers, and vice versa.
The other issue is the standard deviation, or how much regression to the mean the system includes--in other words, is Pujols projected to a 155 OPS+ or a 170? But that works both ways--if it's a low-regression, high-stdev system that's projecting Pujols to 170, then for the league totals to add up, it also has to be projecting crap players to put up OPS+ scores in the 50's, say, rather than in the 60's.
Everyone but me apparently. It would take nothing away from these ratings to label them a bit more intuitively.
If "average" includes backups, isn't it plausible that the majority of starters are better than average?
I'm talking about compared to starters, even. Compared to backups, it would've been even nuttier.
I'm confused -- neither the first nor last time. If the "average" at a position includes the performance of starters and backups at that position, wouldn't you expect more than half of the starters to be better than that average?
It's amusing that for the last few years the Dodgers have had an amazing swarm of young talents but never seem to really break out of it. they need just *1* truely great vet to go along with those kids and they be awsome.
1) You slept through the last two months of the season
2) Monday AM, my irony filter is working at less than 100% efficiency after subjecting myself to sub-McCarverian football commentary
John-Ford Griffin's skillset would pay him about 35x AAA scale in Japan.
I didn't, and that's exactly my point, they could either use Manny or someone of similar caliber (say.. Mark Teixeira and then trade Loney) and they're set, espically in that division where only the D-back are going to be semi competitive in the next few season
Could we have an OPS+/ERA+ or other similar park/league adjusted column?
Thanks!
vr, Xei
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