Wo ist Salome?

Ah, there he is. Quite the sleeper, eh?

Find a decent 3B and they seem set for hitting. I hope ZiPs is correct about Hart and he remembers how to take a BB so his OBP hits .330+. He was painfully bad in the 2nd half this season when it came to getting on base.

I'll take the under on Villaneuva's ERA as well assuming they keep him in the pen. I know ZiPs gave him a hybrid projection but he was so much better in relief(2.12 ERA, .604 OPS against) than as a starter(6.43 ERA,.933 OPS against). McClung looked a ton better in the second half as well so he could be a surprise next year.

Thanks for the great work, Dan. I really like the new format.

The classifications - meh. I'm no prospect maven, but isn't Escobar considered a good one? Not sure what it adds to call him a "Poor" SS. He's not in the majors and we can see from his MLEs that he probably isn't ready. But I dunno...

The classifications - meh. I'm no prospect maven, but isn't Escobar considered a good one? Not sure what it adds to call him a "Poor" SS. He's not in the majors and we can see from his MLEs that he probably isn't ready. But I dunno...

Escobar's defense is the reason that he is so highly regarded, and Dan rates him VG there.

That is also what Escobar would do in the majors right now. Escobar had decent numbers in AA last year that were heavily driven by a high BABIP (probably due to all of his bunt singles).

That is an incredibly scary optimistic projection for Braun. I'm not looking forward to watching the Brewers tee off on Jeff Karstens or whoever next year.

Yeah, both Braun's and Fielder's numbers seem incredibly high to me--both much more similar to their '07 output than their '08. I guess ZiPS sees them improving with age.

No def'n for
POOR
FAIR
AVERAGE
VERY GOOD
EXCELLENT
LINCECUM

Quintiles?

The classifications - meh. I'm no prospect maven, but isn't Escobar considered a good one? Not sure what it adds to call him a "Poor" SS. He's not in the majors and we can see from his MLEs that he probably isn't ready. But I dunno...

These are projections for next season, and ZiPS thinks that Escobar would be a poor ML shortstop next season. It isn't a permanent branding.

I don't like the new format, too bulky. Just a data point, obviously not taking anything away from the tremendous work Dan puts in.

No "good"?

Braun's numbers were much better before his injury which also suppressed his counting stats. He'd likely have 40+ HR last year if he hadn't got hurt.

Definitely like the new format. Makes it much simpler to identify organizational strengths and weaknesses.

My one suggestion: for each position, would it be possible to add a LEAGUE AVERAGE line? Maybe LEAGUE REPLACEMENT LEVEL as well?


#9: See the last line of the final paragraph of the blog entry:

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Great stuff! Thanks, Dan.

I liked the lines for the average 1B, OF or SP, RP that were included in last year's ZIPS. The quintiles are a little more challenging to interpret, but the more I look at them, the more I like them.

Also, why quintiles for the position players and tertiles for the pitchers?

I like the format, Dan, but I would echo post 13.

As always, thanks for the projections!

You made a mistake and forgot the top third relievers. ;)

I don't like the new format.

Braun's projection is sick.

I like the Braun comps, heh.

I like the new format as well.

I'll learn to live with it, maybe even grow to love it but for now, put me down as a "no" on the new format. Among other things, I liked having the average lines for all positions right there on one page -- that way I can say "holy crap, Matt Murton doesn't project to hit as well as an average SS" which is much more dramatic than "poor corner OF".

So the ratings of "very good" etc. are based just on offense. Obviously that makes it easy based on quintiles but I'm not sure you want people going around saying ZiPS rated Rickie Weeks as a "very good 2B." :-)

As to Mr. Braun ... put me down for the under. ZiPS seems to have forgotten its nonlinearity this offseason -- first it was projecting Howie Kendrick to put up a Cobbian BABIP, now it's projecting Braun to hit 385/781 on contact -- better than Jimmie Foxx. I don't know want to know what it's gonna do for Ryan Howard.

Meanwhile, Russell Branyan, a true on-contact god with career rates of 382/805!! is projected to a measly 348/683. Does ZiPS think he's actually gonna face LHP this year or something? :-)

Also, Jesus couldn't hit a curveball -- he was human after all.

As to Mr. Braun ... put me down for the under. ZiPS seems to have forgotten its nonlinearity this offseason -- first it was projecting Howie Kendrick to put up a Cobbian BABIP, now it's projecting Braun to hit 385/781 on contact -- better than Jimmie Foxx.

Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?

I agree with Walt (20). I prefer the old format.

I like the new format.

I'm very optimistic about Salome and ZiPS reinforces that. It would be excellent if the Brewers actually gave him a chance at some point next year. Unfortunately, I think they are committed to Kendall through 2009 for whatever reason.

I forgot to add, I hope the Brewers keep Branyan around next year. He's a very useful fill-in or platoon starter.

Yeshua ben Joseph
-Don't have much info on him at age 25. Known to be pretty good with the lumber, walked a lot when he got older. He got hit more often than Biggio and turned the other cheek. Nobody ever fooled him with a changeup.

ben Joseph's a decent enough player, but he never could handle the pressure of playing in the big cities. I prefer that hotshot prospect in the Astro's system, Simon ben Kosiba. Ed Wade claims he's going to be a real superstar, and I'm inclined to agree.

Hell of a projection for Braun.

I was surprised by how good Weeks' projection was, and absolutely astonished at his 15% upside projection. That's some great potential that ZiPS sees in him still.

Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?

I have, and it isn't particularly stable year-to-year.

In-play BA has been generally increasing since the 1960s; it's gone up about 20 points since then. The increase has leveled off some since about 2000.

-- MWE

ben Joseph's a decent enough player, but he never could handle the pressure of playing in the big cities.

If Braun really is as good as ben Joseph, he'll solve two problems for the Brewers: He can bat in the middle of the lineup and pitch in the 9th inning.

JESUS SAVES

Oh, and the new format, me likey.

I was surprised by how good Weeks' projection was, and absolutely astonished at his 15% upside projection. That's some great potential that ZiPS sees in him still

Weeks projection - .246/.359/.409/.768
Weeks career - .245/.352/.406/.758
Weeks 2008 - .234/.342/.398/.741

The difference in that projection and his 2008 is a few singles pretty much. The difference from his career is like 1 single and a 1 or 2 walks.

I don't like the new format, too bulky.

My thoughts too, but I'm also a stickler against change (except in politics!)

A vote in favor of the new format.

"Yeshua ben Joseph"

Chronic injuries really derailed his career. Hands, feet, intestinal bleeding, you name it...

I prefer the old format. If we're going to use more space, let's fill it with more info.

I also prefer the old format, but I'm not going to complain either way.

I was kinda hoping you guys would be nearly unanimous one way or the other!

Walt, nothing's changed with ZiPS on the in-play front.

So Weeks could be Chase Utley or Callix Crabbe. Awesome! Looks like this could have been a World Series winner at full strength. Too bad.

I like the new format, too. I like having a basic sense of a team's depth chart and a really general idea of the magnituge of a players' offensive contribution. It's like the ZiPs version of the positional strength breakdown in OOTP9.

I have to say, I think Gamel has a decent shot at beating that projection, if he's able to win a job.

I was only kidding Dan.

Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?

I'd have thought my laziness had more renown. :-)

So no.

But I do know that when it comes to BABIP (which excludes HRs), Cobb hit about 379 (I had to guess at a few seasons of Ks), Carew hit 359, Gwynn hit 341, Boggs hit 344, Ichiro has hit 354. Kendrick is projected to hit 372. Seems a bit much (but admittedly not out of line with his career to date). Obviously it's possible and Kendrick's high K-rate (relative to any of those guys) shows he's less contact-oriented and so maybe there is reason to think he hits the ball harder.

Braun's numbers that I cited, which are on-contact and therefore include HR, are more believable to me. There are "lots" of guys in the 350/700 range on-contact these days. He's basically projected into Manny/Pujols territory -- I suppose somebody has to be the next Manny/Pujols. But still seems a bit high for a mean projection (but again not out of line with his career to date).

I'm waiting to see if Howard is projected to out on-contact Ruth.

This really matters for Kendrick. He's projected to 315/342/433 vs. an average 2B of about 340/400 (a guesstimate from the Angels ZiPS. But that's with a Cobbian BABIP. Even if he falls into the Carew/Ichiro range, he's now about 300/330/415 and looks pretty average-ish. If he's in Boggs/Gwynn territory, that's 285/315/395 and he's not looking so good.

We often are concerned about players overly reliant on BA. Not only is Kendrick (currently) heavily reliant on BA, that BA is reliant on an historically high BABIP. I think that will be hard to pull off.

Meanwhile Braun is projected to 380/780 on-contact and a 150 OPS+. He hit 360/700 this year (perfectly believable these days) and had a 128 OPS+. He could fall to 340/680 and still be average or a bit above for an LF. In short, he can be anywhere from average to good without being historic; Kendrick doesn't have that luxury (unless he develops some power and he does have a high doubles rate).

"Yeshua ben Joseph"

Chronic injuries really derailed his career. Hands, feet, intestinal bleeding, you name it...

Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.

Manny Parra will definitely beat his projection. His top upside is Jon Lester. Clearly his prior career as a injured/rehabbing pitcher is playing with his projection. Young LHP seem to improve the most, in year 2 more than any other type of player in baseball.

Let me just make one thing clear. The "Poor" category simply means the bottom 20% of starting major leaguers at that position. Escobar is a good prospect, but it's a stretch to say his offense as of 2009 is ready for prime-time. If he just repeats his 2008 in the minors, he probably moves safely into the "Fair" category (he's on the cusp right now) which makes him a solid player given his defense, which is a lot closer to an "EX" rating than an "AV" one.

Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.

His career really fell off a cliff after age 30 though.

Hey Dan, if you have it handy, what would Salome's optimistic projection be?

His career really fell off a cliff after age 30 though.

Nah, that was when he finally got called up to the bigs.

The "Poor" category simply means the bottom 20% of starting major leaguers at that position.

Do we then need a "crap" or "replacement level" or "sub-replacement level" or "Jeff Francoeur" or "only good enough for the Rangers' rotation" category?

Hey Dan, if you have it handy, what would Salome's optimistic projection be?

Optimistic is a nice way of describing how Wagner thought he'd manage to get a soprano who could a) hit those notes, b) dance like a stripper, and c) pass for 16 years old

Rickie Weeks' comps made me chuckle...

Optimistic is a nice way of describing how Wagner thought he'd manage to get a soprano

Unless I'm mistaken (or missing a Wagner opera of the same name), Salome is by Richard Strauss.

Interestingly, the opera is based on a translation of a play by Oscar Wilde.

Rickie Weeks' comps made me chuckle...

Why? That's exactly the type of player that he is.

(looks at handle of poster)

Oh..

-- MWE

I love, love, love the new format. Those who dislike it are mad, mad, mad.

Ah, Chris Woodward. At least you'll always havethis game.

If Braun really is as good as ben Joseph, he'll solve two problems for the Brewers: He can bat in the middle of the lineup and pitch in the 9th inning.

JESUS SAVES

Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.

Clearly there needs to be a ball fan viewing the Dead Sea Scrolls. Might be something for Retrosheet they just don't recognize. Otherwise it's hard to come up with park-adjusted data. Jerusalem is not as elevated as Coors Field but the air should allow the ball to carry. However, they must have done a lot of small ball, since he is best known for sacrificing.

I thought BJ Upton was quoted as saying Longoria's comp should be Ben Joseph in spikes, so that makes some sense for Braun also.

Unless I'm mistaken (or missing a Wagner opera of the same name), Salome is by Richard Strauss.

For the life of me, I have no idea why I typed Wagner. Brain fart.

Or, since we're sticking with germans today, gehirn sprach nonsense.

Jerusalem is not as elevated as Coors Field but the air should allow the ball to carry. However, they must have done a lot of small ball, since he is best known for sacrificing.

I hear the Masada franchise invented the suicide squeeze.

he was the original Comeback Player of the Year
But with very few appearances during the comeback. In fact some players like Frank "Doubting" Thomas didn't believe it was really ben Joseph.

As for the new format, I think it's a bit bulky - and I echo #s 13 & 14 in requesting league average lines with BA/OBA/SLG.

At the risk of being smitten by ben Joseph for suggesting more work for Dan, maybe the team reports could be in original format and there could be a final set of (park-adjusted) reports (one for each position/pitching role) in the new format?

I like the new format. Thanks for all your work, Dan.

It's not so much that I dislike the new format, as I preferred the only format. At the very least could you promise to list Aaron Miles only once when you project the Cardinals?

It's not so much that I dislike the new format, as I preferred the only format. At the very least could you promise to list Aaron Miles only once when you project the Cardinals?


I've got some bad news for you then - I do pitching projections for hitters that have pitched two years in a row...

I have to agree that having the same projection 5 or 6 times for a hitter is bulky and is a strong negative in the new format, especially for a player like say Braun who has almost 0% chance to start at 3B this year but is listed as such or Rivera who will get 4-5 games at 1B tops.

I think the top comp for ben Joseph is Lenny "Nails" Dykstra.

Love the new format...keep up the great work.

Dan,

How does Cameron's projection change if you move him to The House That Center Stage With Michael Kay Built, and how does Melky's projection look at Miller?

"Interestingly, the opera is based on a translation of a play by Oscar Wilde."

Unsurprisingly, bringing up opera on a baseball site makes you annoying.

Unsurprisingly, bringing up opera on a baseball site makes you annoying.

Hey, I didn't bring it up, it was brought up in the first response. Also, shut up.