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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, October 23, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers
The Sabathia trade paid off very nicely in the short-term for the Brewers. While it's obviously disappointing that the Phillies proceeded to eliminate the Brewers in 4 games, the Brewers should still be proud of the season they had.The Brewers have a few challenges this offseason, but the offense shouldn't be one of them. Fielder and Braun are two of the best young players in the game, Hardy took another step forward to that tier below Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez, and while both were a bit disappointing, both Weeks and Hart are important contributors.
Replacing Sabathia and Sheets, on the other hand, is a major challenge. If there ever was a time for the team to seriously open up their wallet, it's now, with both crucial for the rotation. I like a healthy Yovani Gallardo a lot, but it's too much to ask him to replace one of the top two starters. Milwaukee's best chance to bring one back is probably Ben Sheets - with a few huge names on the starting market, perhaps the injury risk will cause him to fall under the radar a bit.
I'm trying out a new report format (explanation down at the bottom), so any feedback is appreciated.
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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS CThr
VERY GOOD
Angel Salome c 23 .277 .314 .429 101 382 48 106 23 1 11 51 20 53 2 1 Fr
FAIR
Jason Kendall c 35 .262 .337 .328 129 458 49 120 22 1 2 39 41 45 6 3 Fr
Jonathan Lucroy c 23 .237 .294 .382 130 503 55 119 22 0 17 66 40 81 7 3 Av
Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5 Fr
Michael Rivera c 32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 3 2 Av
POOR
Lou Palmisano c 26 .221 .296 .336 78 271 27 60 13 0 6 29 26 50 2 1 Av
Carlos Corporan# c 25 .228 .271 .365 78 263 24 60 15 0 7 32 11 47 2 2 Vg
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FIRST BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
EXCELLENT
Prince Fielder* 1b 25 .285 .388 .569 162 594 100 169 33 2 44 129 91 127 3 2 Fr
AVERAGE
Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 3 0 Av
POOR
Jay Gibbons* rf 32 .266 .317 .435 59 207 22 55 14 0 7 29 15 34 0 0 Fr
Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Av
Mike Lamb* 3b 33 .268 .330 .389 98 265 35 71 13 2 5 32 25 38 1 1 Fr
Brad Nelson* 1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 9 6 Av
Taylor Green* 3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 2 5 Av
Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5 Fr
Michael Rivera c 32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 3 2 Fr
Carlos Corporan# c 25 .228 .271 .365 78 263 24 60 15 0 7 32 11 47 2 2 Av
Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Vg
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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Rickie Weeks 2b 26 .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 21 5 Fr
AVERAGE
Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Fr
FAIR
Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Pr
Ray Durham# 2b 37 .235 .326 .357 108 336 46 79 21 1 6 36 45 64 7 2 Fr
Taylor Green* 3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 2 5 Fr
POOR
Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Fr
Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av
Craig Counsell* ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 2 1 Av
Hernan Iribarren* 2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 16 10 Fr
Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Av
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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
EXCELLENT
Ryan Braun lf 25 .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 16 6 Pr
AVERAGE
Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 3 0 Fr
FAIR
Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Vg
Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Fr
Mike Lamb* 3b 33 .268 .330 .389 98 265 35 71 13 2 5 32 25 38 1 1 Pr
Matthew Gamel* 3b 23 .260 .314 .424 139 550 76 143 33 3 17 76 42 105 8 8 Fr
POOR
Brad Nelson* 1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 9 6 Pr
Taylor Green* 3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 2 5 Av
Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5 Pr
Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Av
Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av
Michael Rivera c 32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 3 2 Pr
Craig Counsell* ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 2 1 Vg
Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Vg
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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
EXCELLENT
J.J. Hardy ss 26 .277 .337 .479 124 476 69 132 26 2 22 80 42 76 2 2 Fr
AVERAGE
Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Fr
FAIR
Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Fr
Craig Counsell* ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 2 1 Vg
POOR
Alcides Escobar ss 22 .268 .292 .342 136 544 71 146 18 2 6 53 18 74 25 11 Vg
Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Av
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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS LF RF
EXCELLENT
Ryan Braun lf 25 .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 16 6 Av
VERY GOOD
Corey Hart rf 27 .282 .331 .491 140 503 73 142 35 5 20 82 33 96 21 7 Av
AVERAGE
Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 3 0 Fr Fr
FAIR
Gabe Kapler cf 33 .276 .327 .432 84 192 30 53 13 1 5 25 13 32 2 1 Av Vg
Jay Gibbons* rf 32 .266 .317 .435 59 207 22 55 14 0 7 29 15 34 0 0 Fr Pr
Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Av
POOR
Brad Nelson* 1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 9 6 Fr Fr
Laynce Nix* cf 28 .241 .293 .420 117 395 45 95 18 1 17 58 26 106 4 2 Av Av
Cole Gillespie lf 25 .231 .305 .377 129 472 58 109 26 2 13 58 47 89 14 5 Vg Vg
Brandon Katin rf 26 .233 .281 .403 114 387 43 90 19 1 15 54 20 111 4 3 Fr Fr
Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5 Fr
Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Av
Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av Av
Anthony Gwynn* cf 26 .257 .313 .314 118 382 45 98 12 2 2 32 30 61 18 7 Vg Vg
Hernan Iribarren* 2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 16 10 Av
Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Av Av
Lorenzo Cain rf 23 .223 .277 .321 128 507 58 113 22 2 8 48 32 97 21 9 Vg Vg
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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Mike Cameron cf 36 .246 .333 .446 125 475 74 117 30 4 19 73 57 132 15 5 Av
AVERAGE
Gabe Kapler cf 33 .276 .327 .432 84 192 30 53 13 1 5 25 13 32 2 1 Fr
Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Pr
FAIR
Laynce Nix* cf 28 .241 .293 .420 117 395 45 95 18 1 17 58 26 106 4 2 Fr
POOR
Cole Gillespie lf 25 .231 .305 .377 129 472 58 109 26 2 13 58 47 89 14 5 Fr
Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av
Anthony Gwynn* cf 26 .257 .313 .314 118 382 45 98 12 2 2 32 30 61 18 7 Av
Hernan Iribarren* 2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 16 10 Fr
Lorenzo Cain rf 23 .223 .277 .321 128 507 58 113 22 2 8 48 32 97 21 9 Vg
* - Hits Left
# - Switch-Hitter
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
C.C. Sabathia* 28 3.07 17 7 31 31 223.0 203 76 19 47 222
Ben Sheets 30 3.41 12 7 26 26 161.0 153 61 14 38 136
Yovani Gallardo 23 3.73 5 3 14 14 82.0 74 34 7 35 74
MIDDLE THIRD
David Bush 29 4.50 9 11 31 29 180.0 189 90 26 42 125
Chris Capuano* 30 4.53 8 8 24 22 137.0 147 69 17 39 115
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Manny Parra* 26 4.57 7 7 24 23 128.0 134 65 12 60 101
BOTTOM THIRD
Jeff Suppan 34 5.04 8 11 28 28 168.0 196 94 21 60 95
Nic Ungs 29 5.27 4 7 20 16 94.0 107 55 14 34 50
Sam Narron* 27 5.41 5 9 23 20 123.0 147 74 16 36 48
Lindsay Gulin* 32 5.73 5 9 23 21 113.0 126 72 19 56 67
Chris Narveson* 27 6.03 4 8 19 16 91.0 106 61 18 41 60
Richie Gardner 27 6.10 3 7 20 15 90.0 109 61 14 43 46
Jeremy Jeffress 21 6.24 4 10 20 19 88.0 98 61 17 55 59
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
MIDDLE THIRD
Brian Shouse* 40 3.72 2 2 66 0 46.0 46 19 4 15 30
Mitch Stetter* 28 3.82 4 3 50 0 40.0 35 17 4 20 38
Salomon Torres 37 3.88 5 4 68 0 72.0 71 31 6 27 55
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Mark DiFelice 32 4.33 4 4 26 10 79.0 81 38 13 14 59
David Riske 32 4.34 2 2 54 1 56.0 54 27 8 27 48
BOTTOM THIRD
Guillermo Mota 35 4.58 3 4 53 0 57.0 56 29 8 24 52
Carlos Villanueva 25 4.60 5 5 30 11 94.0 97 48 14 31 77
Todd Coffey 28 4.62 4 4 72 0 76.0 82 39 9 29 55
Eric Gagne 33 4.72 2 3 42 0 40.0 39 21 7 17 40
Erasmo Ramirez* 33 4.74 4 4 48 0 57.0 66 30 8 11 30
Seth McClung 28 4.80 5 6 42 9 90.0 86 48 10 61 72
Joe Bateman 29 4.83 3 3 45 0 69.0 73 37 9 29 47
Luis Pena 26 5.03 3 4 54 0 59.0 61 33 5 40 38
Tim Dillard 25 5.12 5 7 42 12 123.0 144 70 14 41 57
Derrick Turnbow 31 5.36 3 5 52 0 47.0 39 28 4 50 56
Troy Cate* 27 5.59 2 5 39 7 74.0 84 46 12 32 48
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Ryan Braun
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .337 .390 .683 160 638 128 215 47 9 52 160 51 111 21 5 175
Mean .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 16 6 151
Pessimistic (15%) .271 .317 .516 139 554 71 150 32 4 32 103 34 128 12 5 115
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Rice, Joe Medwick, Yeshua ben Joseph
Player Spotlight - Rickie Weeks
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .280 .400 .506 145 528 127 148 31 8 24 92 87 125 32 6 137
Mean .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 21 5 102
Pessimistic (15%) .216 .310 .331 112 408 52 88 17 3 8 42 45 114 14 4 69
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tony Bernazard, Willie Randolph
Player Spotlight - Manny Parra
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.55 10 6 27 26 147 135 58 11 60 130 123
Mean 4.57 7 7 24 23 128 134 65 12 60 101 96
Pessimistic (15%) 5.82 4 8 20 19 99 118 64 13 55 75 75
Top Near-Age Comps: Ralph Birkofer, Jerry Reuss
Player Spotlight - Ben Sheets
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 2.64 15 5 28 28 184 161 54 12 29 157 166
Mean 3.41 12 7 26 26 161 153 61 14 38 136 128
Pessimistic (15%) 4.32 7 8 21 21 127 133 61 15 36 101 101
Top Near-Age Comps: Bert Saberhagen, Erik Hanson
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
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Ah, there he is. Quite the sleeper, eh?
I'll take the under on Villaneuva's ERA as well assuming they keep him in the pen. I know ZiPs gave him a hybrid projection but he was so much better in relief(2.12 ERA, .604 OPS against) than as a starter(6.43 ERA,.933 OPS against). McClung looked a ton better in the second half as well so he could be a surprise next year.
Escobar's defense is the reason that he is so highly regarded, and Dan rates him VG there.
POOR
FAIR
AVERAGE
VERY GOOD
EXCELLENT
LINCECUM
Quintiles?
These are projections for next season, and ZiPS thinks that Escobar would be a poor ML shortstop next season. It isn't a permanent branding.
No "good"?
My one suggestion: for each position, would it be possible to add a LEAGUE AVERAGE line? Maybe LEAGUE REPLACEMENT LEVEL as well?
#9: See the last line of the final paragraph of the blog entry:
I liked the lines for the average 1B, OF or SP, RP that were included in last year's ZIPS. The quintiles are a little more challenging to interpret, but the more I look at them, the more I like them.
Also, why quintiles for the position players and tertiles for the pitchers?
As always, thanks for the projections!
Braun's projection is sick.
So the ratings of "very good" etc. are based just on offense. Obviously that makes it easy based on quintiles but I'm not sure you want people going around saying ZiPS rated Rickie Weeks as a "very good 2B." :-)
As to Mr. Braun ... put me down for the under. ZiPS seems to have forgotten its nonlinearity this offseason -- first it was projecting Howie Kendrick to put up a Cobbian BABIP, now it's projecting Braun to hit 385/781 on contact -- better than Jimmie Foxx. I don't know want to know what it's gonna do for Ryan Howard.
Meanwhile, Russell Branyan, a true on-contact god with career rates of 382/805!! is projected to a measly 348/683. Does ZiPS think he's actually gonna face LHP this year or something? :-)
Also, Jesus couldn't hit a curveball -- he was human after all.
Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?
I'm very optimistic about Salome and ZiPS reinforces that. It would be excellent if the Brewers actually gave him a chance at some point next year. Unfortunately, I think they are committed to Kendall through 2009 for whatever reason.
-Don't have much info on him at age 25. Known to be pretty good with the lumber, walked a lot when he got older. He got hit more often than Biggio and turned the other cheek. Nobody ever fooled him with a changeup.
I was surprised by how good Weeks' projection was, and absolutely astonished at his 15% upside projection. That's some great potential that ZiPS sees in him still.
I have, and it isn't particularly stable year-to-year.
In-play BA has been generally increasing since the 1960s; it's gone up about 20 points since then. The increase has leveled off some since about 2000.
-- MWE
If Braun really is as good as ben Joseph, he'll solve two problems for the Brewers: He can bat in the middle of the lineup and pitch in the 9th inning.
JESUS SAVES
Weeks projection - .246/.359/.409/.768
Weeks career - .245/.352/.406/.758
Weeks 2008 - .234/.342/.398/.741
The difference in that projection and his 2008 is a few singles pretty much. The difference from his career is like 1 single and a 1 or 2 walks.
My thoughts too, but I'm also a stickler against change (except in politics!)
Chronic injuries really derailed his career. Hands, feet, intestinal bleeding, you name it...
Walt, nothing's changed with ZiPS on the in-play front.
Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?
I'd have thought my laziness had more renown. :-)
So no.
But I do know that when it comes to BABIP (which excludes HRs), Cobb hit about 379 (I had to guess at a few seasons of Ks), Carew hit 359, Gwynn hit 341, Boggs hit 344, Ichiro has hit 354. Kendrick is projected to hit 372. Seems a bit much (but admittedly not out of line with his career to date). Obviously it's possible and Kendrick's high K-rate (relative to any of those guys) shows he's less contact-oriented and so maybe there is reason to think he hits the ball harder.
Braun's numbers that I cited, which are on-contact and therefore include HR, are more believable to me. There are "lots" of guys in the 350/700 range on-contact these days. He's basically projected into Manny/Pujols territory -- I suppose somebody has to be the next Manny/Pujols. But still seems a bit high for a mean projection (but again not out of line with his career to date).
I'm waiting to see if Howard is projected to out on-contact Ruth.
This really matters for Kendrick. He's projected to 315/342/433 vs. an average 2B of about 340/400 (a guesstimate from the Angels ZiPS. But that's with a Cobbian BABIP. Even if he falls into the Carew/Ichiro range, he's now about 300/330/415 and looks pretty average-ish. If he's in Boggs/Gwynn territory, that's 285/315/395 and he's not looking so good.
We often are concerned about players overly reliant on BA. Not only is Kendrick (currently) heavily reliant on BA, that BA is reliant on an historically high BABIP. I think that will be hard to pull off.
Meanwhile Braun is projected to 380/780 on-contact and a 150 OPS+. He hit 360/700 this year (perfectly believable these days) and had a 128 OPS+. He could fall to 340/680 and still be average or a bit above for an LF. In short, he can be anywhere from average to good without being historic; Kendrick doesn't have that luxury (unless he develops some power and he does have a high doubles rate).
Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.
His career really fell off a cliff after age 30 though.
Nah, that was when he finally got called up to the bigs.
Do we then need a "crap" or "replacement level" or "sub-replacement level" or "Jeff Francoeur" or "only good enough for the Rangers' rotation" category?
Optimistic is a nice way of describing how Wagner thought he'd manage to get a soprano who could a) hit those notes, b) dance like a stripper, and c) pass for 16 years old
Unless I'm mistaken (or missing a Wagner opera of the same name), Salome is by Richard Strauss.
Why? That's exactly the type of player that he is.
(looks at handle of poster)
Oh..
-- MWE
JESUS SAVES
Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.
Clearly there needs to be a ball fan viewing the Dead Sea Scrolls. Might be something for Retrosheet they just don't recognize. Otherwise it's hard to come up with park-adjusted data. Jerusalem is not as elevated as Coors Field but the air should allow the ball to carry. However, they must have done a lot of small ball, since he is best known for sacrificing.
I thought BJ Upton was quoted as saying Longoria's comp should be Ben Joseph in spikes, so that makes some sense for Braun also.
For the life of me, I have no idea why I typed Wagner. Brain fart.
Or, since we're sticking with germans today, gehirn sprach nonsense.
I hear the Masada franchise invented the suicide squeeze.
But with very few appearances during the comeback. In fact some players like Frank "Doubting" Thomas didn't believe it was really ben Joseph.
At the risk of being smitten by ben Joseph for suggesting more work for Dan, maybe the team reports could be in original format and there could be a final set of (park-adjusted) reports (one for each position/pitching role) in the new format?
I've got some bad news for you then - I do pitching projections for hitters that have pitched two years in a row...
Love the new format...keep up the great work.
How does Cameron's projection change if you move him to The House That Center Stage With Michael Kay Built, and how does Melky's projection look at Miller?
Unsurprisingly, bringing up opera on a baseball site makes you annoying.
Hey, I didn't bring it up, it was brought up in the first response. Also, shut up.
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