They should have held on to Johan. He would have made the difference in making the playoffs. Once you are in, anything could happen

Dan,

Are you really arguing that Young's 50 point advantage over Gomez in OPS outweighs the defensive difference between the two? Really, over a full season, a .754 OPS versus a .696 OPS is going to add up to 15-20 runs. Gomez gets an EX in center field, while Young gets a Fr in LF.

.700 OPS with Ex CF defense < .750 OPS with Fr LF defense? Sorry, but no. That's significantly undervaluing the run prevention side of things.

They should have held on to Johan. He would have made the difference in making the playoffs. Once you are in, anything could happen

Hindsight is 20/20, of course.

Are you really arguing that Young's 50 point advantage over Gomez in OPS outweighs the defensive difference between the two?

I think he just sorts the Hitters list by RC/27 or something - it's not intended as an overall player rating.

I very much like Mauer's #2 and #3 comps.

How can you not cheer for Pat Neshek and Craig Breslow?

I don't think the Twins ever doubted that they are a better baseball team with Johan Santana.

How can you not cheer for Pat Neshek and Craig Breslow?

With Neshek, the most you can cheer for is a strong 2010.

So how many more years like the last five does Joe Nathan need before he starts getting discussed as a potential Hall of Famer?

I'm referring to this comment:

Denard Span suddenly drawing walks has left the Twins with an interesting dilemma. If 2008 wasn't a fluke, the team has a centerfielder clearly better than Gomez. Trying to win now, Span's the better bet in centerfielder and the team's offense is top-heavy enough that they can't really risk playing Span in a corner.

If the team is better (offense+defense) with Gomez on the field than Young (and ZIPS is projecting that very scenario), then they can and should "risk" playing Span in a corner in lieu of Delmon Young.

I'm just saying that Dan's comment here doesn't really match up with what ZIPS is saying.

I'm not arguing that Young is better than Gomez or Span would be in leftfield, I'm an arguing than an actual good leftfielder would be better than Gomez or Span would be in leftfield.

I'll take the 50 to 1 odds on Gomez swiping 50. If he plays, he can do that easily.

Johan wouldn't be a Twin this season regardless. I think the pitching projections are a bit pessimistic for Baker and the innings projections are all goofy because the Twins have been playing with arb clocks.

I'd say Nathan needs about 10 more seasons like that, minimum 8. That means he has to stay productive until age 42-44. He's Tom Henke - no Hall of Famer but damned good in his prime.

If Morneau or Mauer get hurt this season, this team goes from contender to non-contender overnight.

Easier to handle a Morneau injury than a Mauer injury. They can slide Cuddyer to 1B and play the other outfielders everyday. It hurts but I'm assuming Morneau isn't going to suffer a season ending injury. I agree that if they lose a perennial MVP candidate in Mauer they're going to have a hard time winning.

Wow, not a very inspiring small-comp-set for Liriano there...

Easier to handle a Morneau injury than a Mauer injury. They can slide Cuddyer to 1B and play the other outfielders everyday.

True, but from an opposing perspective, the lineup gets a lot less scary without Morneau in it. Other than Morneau, the Twins lack a legitimate power threat.

I'd say Nathan needs about 10 more seasons like that, minimum 8. That means he has to stay productive until age 42-44. He's Tom Henke - no Hall of Famer but damned good in his prime.

I wouldn't go quite that far - but I'd think he'd need five more REALLY good seasons.

Hey Dan, nice work as always. Just doing some fantasy baseball preparation and wondering if you are gonna release the complete 2009 Zips in spreadsheet format?

I'd say Nathan needs about 10 more seasons like that, minimum 8. That means he has to stay productive until age 42-44. He's Tom Henke - no Hall of Famer but damned good in his prime.
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I wouldn't go quite that far - but I'd think he'd need five more REALLY good seasons.

Five more good seasons and you can start to talk about it. That's still only maybe 400 saves, which won't be a guarantee by any means. A couple of ok seasons after that and he'll have a shot. Unfortunately, Nathan started too late to get there. It might be 100 to 1 shot to be an effective closer at age 40 without a major injury in his career.

Oof. Apparently there's a good chance that Boof Bonser's out for the year. Who's next in line here?

Oof. Apparently there's a good chance that Boof Bonser's out for the year. Who's next in line here?

I'd imagine Humber will slide into Bonser's role, since he's out of options.

Twins projected pitching staff:
SP-"Light Rail" Baker
SP-Francisco Liriano
SP-Kevin Slowey
SP-Nick Blackburn
SP-Glen Perkins
Closer-Joe Nathan
RP-Jesse Crain
RP-Shaggy Guerrier
RP-Craig Breslow
RP-Luis Ayala
RP-Philip Humber/Jose Mijares

Dan, can you explain why Baker's ERA is projected to be much higher than Slowey's despite better peripherals? Light Rail Baker is really one of the most reliable, underrated pitchers around - a perfect successor to Brad Radke in poise and anonymity.

Does this mean we can look forward to a Scott Baker comeback in 2025? It's funny that he compares to Boyd when they are two of the skinniest players this side of Juan Cruz.

I'm still worried about the bullpen. This is going to be a run-prevention team if it is going to win. Having young pitching leaves open the hope that they will improve enough to make up for Punto, Span, and Casilla not hitting as well as last year. But if the bullpen is as inconsistent as it was last year, I would worry that the optimism is unwarranted.

Every year I think, "not having that drag on the lineup will inevitably cause a nice bounce." Batista was so bad, that I assumed having him out of the lineup would add 20 runs. Then Rondell replaced his crater. Then Lamb replaced Rondell's crater. If they can avoid playing anyone this year long enough to put up a -30 VORP, they will be getting somewhere. Obviously, Punto is a prime candidate, but we'll see how it plays out.

Delmon's projection doesn't really show any growth. Those are essentially the numbers he put up after the first month of the season. After he bottomed out, he was about a .290/.330/.420 hitter, which is not good for a lead-gloved corner OF. I like seeing Carlos Lee as a comp, because he's at least a useful player, but I'm afraid that he'll be long gone by the time he reaches that level if he doesn't start showing growth quickly. He has not made friends on high places on this team.

Twins projected pitching staff

Baseball Prospectus projects their top 5 starters to ALL have higher ERAs this year than last year. So... I gotta think ZIPS is a little closer to accurate.

Dan, can you explain why Baker's ERA is projected to be much higher than Slowey's despite better peripherals?

Given the projected peripherals (including hits), Baker's peripherals suggest an ERA 0.42 runs worse than Slowey's.

It would be great if Luis Ayala was replaced with Juan Cruz in that bullpen. I'm going to say that if the Twins lose Nathan for the year they're probably as hurt as if they lose Morneau. The Twins can dump Ayala in spring training and not owe him anything so his $1.1M can be transferred to a Juan Cruz contract.

The Twins can dump Ayala in spring training and not owe him anything so his $1.1M can be transferred to a Juan Cruz contract.

That's not true.

It would be great if Luis Ayala was replaced with Juan Cruz in that bullpen.

I agree, but I think Ayala has a pretty good chance to have a nice rebound year, and that he'd be really nice to have around. Maybe that's only a 1 in 3 chance that he's anything special next year, but that's better odds than I'd give Guerrier or Humber. With Boof out, they could still sign Cruz if they wanted. Nathan, Cruz, Crain, Ayala, Guerrier, and Breslow, with Humber and Mijares fighting for the 12th spot or injury replacements. Actually to put it another way, who would you rather have as the 25th guy on the team, Juan Cruz, Buscher, Tolbert, or the lesser of Humber or Mijares? Cruz would be my choice any day of the week, but I'm not sure they can acquire him.

Delmon's projection doesn't really show any growth.

That's because since partway into his 2005 season with Montgomery when he abandoned his patience completely he hasn't shown any real growth. For the past three and a half seasons he has more or less been the same player.

His top 5 PECOTA comparables are pretty fun:

1. Jeff Francouer
2. Shawn Green
3. Sean Burroughs
4. Darin Erstad
5. Nick Markakis

His similarity index is very low though.

Hey Dan, would you mind doing a projection for Anthony Slama? Thanks.

Jason Kubel has had enough troubles. Listing Walt Bond as a comparable is a Bunning-esque (Bunnesque?) move, Dan. :)

Baker and Span are going to completely destroy those projections, especially Span.

I'm optimistic that Casilla and Perkins will outperform those projections also. I don't think either will be a star but an OBP heavy 85 OPS+ for Casilla and an 85 ERA+ for Perkins seem more likely than the projections.

I like seeing Carlos Lee as a comp, because he's at least a useful player

Joe Rudi was a pretty good player, too.

Delmon - along with Elijah Dukes and BJ Upton - pretty much ran over John Tamargo at Durham in his last full minor league season. Those three and Darnell McDonald were basically a team unto themselves. It wasn't just the bat-throwing incident (Delmon), the DUI in the wee hours in Chapel Hill (Upton) and fighting a coach (Dukes) - it was a season-long pattern of behaviorial issues for all of them. None of them listened to ANYONE in authority - and you could see it on the field. Bascially, Delmon needs a wakeup call. The talent is definitely there; he made as much hard contact as any minor league hitter I have seen. But the self-discipline isn't.

-- MWE

I'd imagine Humber will slide into Bonser's role, since he's out of options.

Probably not a bad way to break Humber in, either, throwing mostly low-leverage relief. Bonser didn't pitch very often in high-leverage situations once he came out of the rotation at the end of May. In the long run, I see Humber as being a late-inning reliever, probably a 7th-inning or 8th-inning guy.

-- MWE

In the long run, I see Humber as being a late-inning reliever, probably a 7th-inning or 8th-inning guy.

Good thing the Twins picked Humber instead of Pelfrey otherwise they would would have been stuck with a 2/3 starter instead of having a late-inning reliever

Good thing the Twins picked Humber instead of Pelfrey otherwise they would would have been stuck with a 2/3 starter instead of having a late-inning reliever

Pelfrey was never an option. Minaya made it clear neither FMart or Pelfrey were available.

Good thing the Twins picked Humber instead of Pelfrey otherwise they would would have been stuck with a 2/3 starter instead of having a late-inning reliever

Pelfrey was never an option. Minaya made it clear neither FMart or Pelfrey were available.

Most reports I saw said Pelfrey was offered, but the Twins didn't want him.

Most reports I saw said Pelfrey was offered, but the Twins didn't want him.

There were a ton of BS reports, I could have remembered it wrong, but I thought Metsblog kept saying they would not include Pelfrey in a deal.

Most sources began with the Twins needing a "MLB-Ready" player along the lines of Ellsbury, Hughes or Reyes.

It was a story when the Twins changed their demands so Reyes didn't have to be involved. It then moved to FMart needing to be included among Guerra, Mulvey, Humber and Gomez.

Not seeing a whole lot else mentioned. It is amusing to see all the ESPN analysts say the Mets don't have the farm system, and they lack a stud like Hughes.

Most reports I saw said Pelfrey was offered, but the Twins didn't want him.

I don't know where you saw those reports, but the folks I know in the Mets' organization have been saying all along that FMart and Pelfrey (along with Niese) were untouchable.

-- MWE

Liriano is going to be much better than people think. He is still in his mid 20s. The biggest concern with this team is that they don't have enough bats. Crede wasn't the answer and it will show up when he's on the DL in May.

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