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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Oakland Athletics
Make no mistake about it, the A's aren't doing a quick rebuild. There's little chance of competing with the Angels in 2009 unless the team's fortunate in some of the young hitters really stepping up, like Carlos Gonzalez. Daric Barton probably needs to spend some time in the minors as there's a difference between being disciplined and simply being too passive. Cust can get away with it since he has a lot more power, but Barton has to be more like Mark Grace. If enough breaks right for the team, they could win 80 games, but a number in the 70s is more likely depending on what Beane does in the offseason.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Jack Cust* dh 30 .246 .387 .471 136 435 66 107 20 0 26 78 100 160 0 1
Frank Thomas dh 41 .260 .362 .402 86 296 31 77 12 0 10 41 44 50 0 0
AVERAGE 1B/DH ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Travis Buck* rf 24 .252 .335 .403 85 318 40 80 18 3 8 39 36 71 4 1
AVERAGE 3B ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eric Chavez* 3b 31 .246 .328 .411 87 321 43 79 18 1 11 44 40 66 2 1
Ryan Sweeney* rf 24 .272 .340 .384 128 456 55 124 20 2 9 52 47 72 8 3
Chris Denorfia cf 28 .284 .337 .377 104 334 44 95 16 0 5 36 26 55 8 4
Jack Hannahan* 3b 29 .247 .340 .373 123 405 47 100 24 0 9 47 56 110 3 2
AVERAGE CF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mark Ellis 2b 32 .253 .328 .387 118 442 59 112 22 2 11 54 43 71 7 2
Daric Barton* 1b 23 .244 .332 .378 151 532 72 130 27 4 12 63 68 88 3 2
AVERAGE 2B ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kurt Suzuki c 25 .248 .325 .369 117 404 50 100 22 0 9 55 42 67 1 1
AVERAGE SS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matt Murton lf 27 .253 .320 .367 114 368 43 93 17 2 7 41 34 48 4 2
Aaron Cunningham cf 23 .248 .307 .404 132 532 72 132 26 3 17 69 42 110 18 9
Emil Brown rf 34 .250 .310 .376 106 364 43 91 17 1 9 44 29 85 5 2
AVERAGE C ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Casey Rogowski* 1b 28 .237 .308 .361 123 435 49 103 22 1 10 49 42 91 13 4
Landon Powell# c 27 .227 .291 .383 90 326 31 74 10 1 13 46 29 83 1 0
Chris Carter 1b 22 .219 .284 .403 132 521 57 114 22 1 24 76 45 116 3 1
Danny Putnam* lf 26 .231 .303 .359 92 329 36 76 16 1 8 38 30 70 2 2
Jeff Baisley 3b 26 .239 .296 .362 105 389 41 93 21 0 9 44 28 66 2 1
Corey Brown* cf 23 .216 .275 .388 103 402 36 87 18 0 17 55 31 103 9 2
Bobby Crosby ss 29 .234 .296 .344 110 418 50 98 23 1 7 43 36 76 7 2
Gregorio Petit ss 24 .260 .305 .336 110 411 40 107 17 1 4 37 25 70 5 5
Eric Patterson* 2b 26 .235 .288 .352 122 455 54 107 20 3 9 48 33 85 23 7
Rajai Davis# cf 28 .245 .301 .335 113 310 41 76 13 3 3 29 22 49 29 10
Sean Doolittle* 1b 22 .227 .281 .360 108 431 43 98 22 1 11 49 32 92 4 3
Carlos Gonzalez* cf 23 .233 .276 .365 130 468 50 109 30 1 10 52 25 119 7 4
Rob Bowen# c 28 .215 .304 .323 65 130 17 28 8 0 2 13 16 43 0 1
Cliff Pennington# ss 25 .227 .309 .293 141 556 73 126 21 2 4 46 65 82 23 5
Brooks Conrad# 2b 29 .205 .269 .371 124 483 62 99 26 3 16 61 40 112 7 2
Richie Robnett* rf 25 .222 .277 .345 102 400 45 89 22 0 9 43 29 97 3 1
Javier Herrera cf 24 .218 .265 .360 81 339 42 74 16 1 10 40 19 77 9 7
Joshua Horton* ss 23 .243 .297 .285 99 400 38 97 12 1 1 30 29 61 2 5
Justin Knoedler c 28 .203 .256 .332 82 271 30 55 15 1 6 28 18 65 3 1
Raul Padron* c 24 .212 .252 .332 80 292 25 62 14 0 7 31 15 63 1 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cust* Pr Pr
Thomas
Buck* Av Av
Chavez* Av
Sweeney* Vg Vg Vg
Denorfia Av Fr Av
Hannahan* Av Av Av
Ellis Ex
Barton* Vg
Suzuki Av
Murton Av Fr Fr
Cunningham Vg Av Vg
Brown Fr Av
Rogowski* Av Fr Fr
Powell# Vg
Carter Fr
Putnam* Fr Fr Fr
Baisley Av
Brown* Av Pr Av
Crosby Av
Petit Av Av Av
Patterson* Fr Av Av Av
Davis# Vg Vg Vg
Doolittle* Vg
Gonzalez* Av Fr Av
Bowen# Fr
Pennington# Av Av Av
Conrad# Av Av
Robnett* Av Fr Av
Herrera Vg Av Vg
Horton* Av Av Fr
Knoedler Av
Padron* Fr Av
Player Spotlight - Jack Cust
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .272 .423 .538 153 489 87 133 25 0 35 100 128 167 0 1 158
Mean .246 .387 .471 136 435 66 107 20 0 26 78 100 160 0 1 131
Pessimistic (15%) .206 .346 .387 114 364 40 75 15 0 17 53 77 154 0 2 98
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jason Thompson, Jim Gentile
Player Spotlight - Travis Buck
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .281 .374 .475 117 438 66 123 30 5 15 67 60 85 7 1 128
Mean .252 .335 .403 85 318 40 80 18 3 8 39 36 71 4 1 99
Pessimistic (15%) .227 .292 .327 68 251 21 57 11 1 4 24 22 60 2 1 69
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Norm Miller, Dwight Evans
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Brad Ziegler 29 2.89 7 3 61 0 81.0 77 26 3 25 42
Huston Street 25 3.22 7 3 63 0 67.0 57 24 6 19 71
Joey Devine 25 3.24 6 3 48 1 50.0 44 18 3 23 47
Justin Duchscherer 31 3.30 9 5 18 18 101.0 96 37 9 21 70
Santiago Casilla 29 3.90 2 2 54 1 60.0 57 26 5 26 53
AVERAGE RELIEVER ------------------------------------------------------------------
Jerry Blevins* 25 4.10 4 4 57 0 68.0 72 31 6 19 47
Alan Embree* 39 4.11 3 2 64 0 57.0 57 26 6 19 50
Sean Gallagher 23 4.23 8 7 28 23 134.0 135 63 11 65 92
Dana Eveland* 25 4.36 7 7 25 23 132.0 139 64 9 57 91
AVERAGE STARTER -------------------------------------------------------------------
Andrew Brown 28 4.43 3 3 51 0 61.0 59 30 5 35 46
Greg Smith* 25 4.50 8 9 25 25 144.0 151 72 17 51 79
Trevor Cahill 21 4.54 8 9 22 20 111.0 112 56 10 60 60
Vince Mazzaro 22 4.80 9 13 29 28 167.0 185 89 17 66 73
Brett Anderson* 21 4.90 7 10 22 21 112.0 127 61 14 33 59
Chris Gissell 31 4.94 5 6 22 15 93.0 105 51 14 24 57
Joshua Outman* 24 4.99 6 10 41 20 137.0 151 76 14 69 68
Jay Marshall* 26 5.02 3 4 58 0 61.0 71 34 6 23 24
Brad Kilby* 26 5.03 3 5 54 0 68.0 72 38 10 31 43
Dallas Braden* 25 5.06 3 5 18 13 80.0 92 45 13 24 48
Jared Lansford 22 5.09 3 5 29 2 53.0 59 30 6 24 28
Ryan Wing* 27 5.26 3 4 44 7 77.0 84 45 11 39 39
Jeff Gray 27 5.32 3 6 57 0 71.0 84 42 9 26 35
Keith Foulke 36 5.36 2 3 42 0 47.0 53 28 10 15 33
Henry Rodriguez 24 5.37 5 10 30 22 109.0 116 65 9 83 61
Kirk Saarloos 30 5.42 3 6 24 14 103.0 125 62 14 32 40
James Simmons 22 5.44 6 10 26 26 139.0 166 84 21 44 70
Shane Komine 28 5.60 3 7 16 13 82.0 95 51 13 30 42
Brad Knox 27 5.60 5 9 26 22 143.0 173 89 19 56 55
Gio Gonzalez* 23 5.66 6 13 31 29 151.0 161 95 26 84 109
Andrew Bailey 25 5.82 4 9 28 17 102.0 112 66 17 53 60
Dan Meyer* 27 5.97 3 8 21 18 101.0 119 67 17 45 56
Bret Prinz 32 6.21 1 2 29 0 29.0 33 20 5 17 19
Lenny Dinardo* 29 6.39 2 7 19 11 69.0 92 49 11 25 29
Justin Dowdy* 25 6.45 1 4 45 3 74.0 89 53 14 43 42
David Shafer 27 6.45 1 2 44 1 53.0 61 38 10 36 30
Jose Garcia 24 7.44 1 5 31 1 52.0 66 43 13 31 20
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Greg Smith
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.68 11 8 28 28 164 156 67 17 49 102 115
Mean 4.50 8 9 25 25 144 151 72 17 51 79 94
Pessimistic (15%) 5.09 6 8 20 20 115 129 65 15 46 56 83
Top Near-Age Comps: John Koronka, Bill Travers
Player Spotlight - Dana Eveland
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.43 9 6 28 26 152 144 58 8 53 112 123
Mean 4.36 7 7 25 23 132 139 64 9 57 91 97
Pessimistic (15%) 5.28 4 7 21 19 104 122 61 9 50 67 80
Top Near-Age Comps: Danny Jackson, Jerry Reuss
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 07, 2008 at 02:01 PM | 47 comment(s)
Related News: Oakland, ZIPS
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Pitching looks very promising with Gallagher and Eveland above average starters, plenty of cheap above average relievers and two 21 year olds and a 22 year old looking very close to being ready to make the jump.
So you're saying they will only win 90 in the DM ZiPS sims this year? :-)
Top Near-Age Comps: John Koronka, Bill Travers
A Koronka comp -- that's just cruel.
OK, so the Murton projections have finally come back down to earth but ... last year he projected as above the average LF, this year he's below the average SS? I know that gap's not as big these days as it used to be but that seems a big decline in a year.
And Ziegler blows that projection out of the water. :-)
Was Landon Powell's sucky 2008 a function of the knees, or just a really bad year?
What about Donnie Murphy?
Well, he's spending a year in a different park in the harder league and he was pretty lousy this year. Even ignoring a wretched cup of coffee in scattered play in the majors, being a corner outfielder with a .770ish OPS in the PCL is not a good resume line.
Just got bumped off the roster a day or two ago, along with Saarloos. Though I guess The Saarlacc made the cut for a projection, or at least didn't get pulled.
Must have something to do with the ballpark. I'd call Swisher's 2006 a breakout year, but then he's regressed. He'd make a nice Angel next year since they'll need new corner outfielders (assuming Vlad at DH, Torii in center, Rivera & GA gone, GMJ & Willits on the bench). Since they were playing Wise over him in the playoffs, maybe KW will sell low on him, possibly for another shortstop to replace Cabrera.
I think the Suzuki projection is close, but I would definitely take the over on Buck's 99 OPS+.
Buck will be 25 next year, and he has a .900 career minor league OPS and a 118 OPS+ in 500 MLB PA. He was sent down in April this year after 15 terrible games (70 PA). He then put up a .900 OPS in his 101 subsequent PA. I'm more concerned with him getting hurt than I am by him repeating his 2008 with the bat.
Part of it is the excellent defense.
Speaking of which, is Cust's defense really as bad as its reputation? He seems closer to average than poor by ZR.
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Is there any way to account for Greg Smith's pickoffs?
They actually have four above average offensive players -- Cust, Sweeney, Suzuki and Ellis (if re-signed). Buck has a good shot at beating that projection. Beane has to find better solutions at SS, 3B and 1B which he certainly has the trade chips and budget to address.
I'd be interested in projections for Andrew Carignan and Adrian Cardenas.
It's just a really great move. It's a snap throw instead of a high leg kick manuever. He varies the rhythm on it and most guys can't read it until the first baseman has the ball. They either take off on a rundown or get tagged standing up. They're not tagged with a swipe going back to the bag.
I actually think the Giants are in better shape than the A's. They've got a better balance of top flight pitching prospects (MadBum, Alderson) and position players (Posey, Sandoval, Villanova). I guess we'll see how long it will take Chris Carter to reach the bigs.
I think they meant is there any way to account for the pickoffs in his ZiPS projection -- i.e. he'd have a lower ERA than his peripherals would lead you to believe either because he's removing some baserunners, they're not stealing and not taking the extra base because of short leads.
Beane has to find better solutions at SS, 3B and 1B
Not at 3B if ZiPS is to be believed. Both Chavez and Hannahan project as just a bit below average -- unless the gap between average CF and average 3B has gotten bigger than it used to be. And ZiPS suggests Hannahan would be fine at 2B as well though I don't know if that defensive rating is reliable.
No I wouldn't want to go into next year with Hannahan as my 3B ... I'm just saying ZiPS says he wouldn't suck. I would be fine going in with a healthy Chavez should such a mythical critter exist.
Hmm, my explanation made no sense.
it's a feature, not a bug. :-)
And yeah, Gio Gonzalez doesn't look too good right now. Who was the other guy they got in that trade?
And Chris Gissell -- I remember using him as my 6th or 7th starter for a DMB team like 6-7 years ago.
He had shin issues this year too: the A's called it "shin splints", which could mean anything from some muscular pain, to a fracture.
Well, the thing with Chavez is just how badly his back and shoulder are damaged, and how much he has healed. At this point, any statistical projections are pretty much random guesses.
Brandon Wood -- .229/283/.393
Jack Hannahan - .247/.340/.373 in a tougher park to hit in.
I'm still trying to get my head around this one.
Take away time constraints, and I'd love to include it in the CHONE projections. All I would need is a datasource showing how many pickoffs every pitcher has, and come up with a formula and regression to predict next year's pickoffs. Right now I don't have that datasource. I guess I'd need to learn how to spyder the major and minor league gameday files.
Hannahan hit much, much better than Wood in 2007.
He's had a multitude of injuries over the past few years, including a relatively bad concussion. Maybe I'm putting too much weight on his late season resurgence, but I think he'll be around average (for his position) in 2009.
Thanks. That's definitely poor. I wonder what it is that basic ZR and RZR are missing on him. Perhaps the A's pitchers have just induced easily fieldable BIP towards Cust?
Yes, that's what I meant. Though it seems like Smith might face the same paradox the best defensive catchers face. Instead of saving runs with his pickoffs and good CS rate, he may simply shut down the running game altogether. In the first half last year, he had 9 SB, 9 CS, and 10 pickoffs. In the second half, he had just 2 SB, 3 CS, and 5 pickoffs. If people stop running on him and take smaller leads to avoid pickoffs, he won't save any runs on SB/CS/PK. Though I guess he'd prevent more people from taking extra bases on BIP given their smaller leads.
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Jairo Garcia was downright awful after coming back from the DL, allowing a ~.950 OPS with more walks than Ks in 30 IP. I'd be more surprised by a sub-4.00 ERA in 2009 than I would be by season ending surgery.
Oh I agree, as long as he can stay healthy. I'm basically saying that this season's crappiness was likely injury related.
Baseball Reference has the data, but I don't know how easily spider-able it is.
Fautino De Los Santos started five games in the minors and went down injured (that seems to happen to a lot of pitchers the White Sox trade).
Wood born March 2, 1985
Hate? Recognizing that someone projects to an ERA a full 1.25 runs worse than an average starter now constitutes hate?
Man people are strange these days.
Anyway, it's precisely the projected K-rate that has me sayiing he "doesn't look too good right now." Did you notice that, for whatever reason (Dan?), ZiPS projects him to just 109 K in 151 IP? That's a league-average K-rate these days. His minor-league K-rate has been the main reason he's been considered a prospect. Furthermore, he projects far worse than Cahill, Anderson, Mazzarro, Gallagher, Eveleand and even Smith, Outman and Braden (most of whom have crappy projected K-rates -- Dan?). And Rodriguez and Simmons. While it's probably a wonderful thing for the A's, that Gonzalez is projected as the 11th best starter 25 and under in the system does not suggest he has a bright future.
If Beane believes in ZiPS, I'd expect to see Gonzalez traded this offseason.
Yeah, cause Williams has such a habit of selling low on folks. That's why he has such a hard time making good trades.
It had been looking less and less likely before the meltdown. The only thing going for the project is that the land is readily available. Which is obviously very important, but the location is almost unworkable. It would be a travesty, in this day and age, in the Bay Area no less, to build a sports stadium with no public transit access. Wolff has suggested that a BART station will be built at the new stadium location, but a look at the map is all it takes to dispel that idea - the proposed location is not near the BART line. And if Wolff thinks he can get a spur built off the BART mainline track, I'd say he's dreaming. As far as I can tell, Wolff proposed the move to Fremont some time ago, everyone pointed out what a bad idea it was, and nothing has really progressed since then.
Worth noting that neither Thompson or Gentile lasted long after their age-30 seasons.
-- MWE
It's relatively easy to be more optimistic on Gio than ZiPS is.
In 2008, he put up the 3rd best FIP (3.92) in the PCL (AAA) among the 47 pitchers who qualified (Strangely, Dan Meyer was second). He was also the third youngest pitcher in the league to throw 100+ IP.
In 2007, he had the 2nd lowest FIP (2.78) in the Southern League (AA), while being the 2nd youngest SP in the league.
Pitchers don't have the same general aging patterns as hitters, but it's not hard to like Gio as a guy who has performed very well against older competition.
I agree. While he definitely had problems in MLB this year, I do question any assessment that his long term prognosis is poor because of that. Is he going to do well this year if he's in MLB? Probably not. The fact he doesn't average over 90 mph on his fastball raises questions, but then his curve is supposed to be top notch. And the fact that he continued to strike out batters at such a high rate is an indicator of future success.
Jonathan Sanchez was really bad in 07, and then was very good for a substantial portion of last year before he imploded. I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzalez has a similar progression, although I think his breakthrough year will be 2010.
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