Man that offense is offensive. I think Suzuki and Buck will hit better than that although Buck was pretty terrible for most of this year. Hopefully a couple of these guys step it up next year and then Beane can fill in the gaps through trades next July and next offseason.

Pitching looks very promising with Gallagher and Eveland above average starters, plenty of cheap above average relievers and two 21 year olds and a 22 year old looking very close to being ready to make the jump.

they could win 80 games, but a number in the 70s is more likely depending on what Beane does in the offseason.

So you're saying they will only win 90 in the DM ZiPS sims this year? :-)

Top Near-Age Comps: John Koronka, Bill Travers

A Koronka comp -- that's just cruel.

OK, so the Murton projections have finally come back down to earth but ... last year he projected as above the average LF, this year he's below the average SS? I know that gap's not as big these days as it used to be but that seems a big decline in a year.

And Ziegler blows that projection out of the water. :-)

Yeah, the O is grim, even with the park factor.

Was Landon Powell's sucky 2008 a function of the knees, or just a really bad year?

Also curious about health reports on Komine, if anybody has any.

That is a lot of bad hitters.

What about Donnie Murphy?

OK, so the Murton projections have finally come back down to earth but ... last year he projected as above the average LF, this year he's below the average SS? I know that gap's not as big these days as it used to be but that seems a big decline in a year.

Well, he's spending a year in a different park in the harder league and he was pretty lousy this year. Even ignoring a wretched cup of coffee in scattered play in the majors, being a corner outfielder with a .770ish OPS in the PCL is not a good resume line.

"What about Donnie Murphy?"

Just got bumped off the roster a day or two ago, along with Saarloos. Though I guess The Saarlacc made the cut for a projection, or at least didn't get pulled.

Why do the A's of recent vintage churn out so many good pitchers and can't develop a hitter to save their lives? OK, Swisher was one, but even he hasn't reallly broken out yet.

Anyone have any fanboy expectations of Barton to break out? Wondering if I should pick him up again in my DMB league.

Why do the A's of recent vintage churn out so many good pitchers and can't develop a hitter to save their lives? OK, Swisher was one, but even he hasn't reallly broken out yet.

Must have something to do with the ballpark. I'd call Swisher's 2006 a breakout year, but then he's regressed. He'd make a nice Angel next year since they'll need new corner outfielders (assuming Vlad at DH, Torii in center, Rivera & GA gone, GMJ & Willits on the bench). Since they were playing Wise over him in the playoffs, maybe KW will sell low on him, possibly for another shortstop to replace Cabrera.

What about Michael Inoa?

I think Suzuki and Buck will hit better than that although Buck was pretty terrible for most of this year

I think the Suzuki projection is close, but I would definitely take the over on Buck's 99 OPS+.

Buck will be 25 next year, and he has a .900 career minor league OPS and a 118 OPS+ in 500 MLB PA. He was sent down in April this year after 15 terrible games (70 PA). He then put up a .900 OPS in his 101 subsequent PA. I'm more concerned with him getting hurt than I am by him repeating his 2008 with the bat.

Why do the A's of recent vintage churn out so many good pitchers and can't develop a hitter to save their lives? OK, Swisher was one, but even he hasn't reallly broken out yet.

Part of it is the excellent defense.

Speaking of which, is Cust's defense really as bad as its reputation? He seems closer to average than poor by ZR.

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Is there any way to account for Greg Smith's pickoffs?

According to Dewan, Cust is 13 plays and 21 bases below average in the field over 1088.4 innings in 2007-08, so that's -16 runs per 162 games. Not necessarily *the* worst corner outfielder in MLB, but certainly in that neighborhood--about at the level where he's equally valuable as a DH and an outfielder. UZR is not yet available for the second half of 2008, but through July '08, Lichtman has him at -10 runs in 90 defensive games, which translates to -18 runs per 162. That's pretty close agreement between the two of them that he stinks.

Two DHs as the best hitters. Nice....

Remember when Eric Chavez was good? Me neither :(

Dan, I got a dumb question here. When you say average 3b, for example, do you mean average starting 3b or average of all PA's by 3b's?

Gio Gonzalez is a lot worse than I thought he'd be. OTOH Jerry Reuss and Danny Jackson are pretty good comps for Eveland.

They actually have four above average offensive players -- Cust, Sweeney, Suzuki and Ellis (if re-signed). Buck has a good shot at beating that projection. Beane has to find better solutions at SS, 3B and 1B which he certainly has the trade chips and budget to address.

I'd be interested in projections for Andrew Carignan and Adrian Cardenas.

> Is there any way to account for Greg Smith's pickoffs?


It's just a really great move. It's a snap throw instead of a high leg kick manuever. He varies the rhythm on it and most guys can't read it until the first baseman has the ball. They either take off on a rundown or get tagged standing up. They're not tagged with a swipe going back to the bag.

I'm more bummed than ever that the A's didn't take Brett Wallace (or Aaron Hicks) in the draft. I don't have a lot of faith that Jemile Weeks will turn into the leadoff hitter and second baseman they want. Their pick next year is going to be about 13th, so it won't be much better. (Interestingly, Jemile's old double play partner at UofM, Ryan Jackson, is rated about 13th on some prospect boards, and the A's are thin on middle infielders.) Meanwhile, the Giants will have a #6 pick next year.

I actually think the Giants are in better shape than the A's. They've got a better balance of top flight pitching prospects (MadBum, Alderson) and position players (Posey, Sandoval, Villanova). I guess we'll see how long it will take Chris Carter to reach the bigs.

Ooops, I forgot. How about Arnold Leon and Andrew Recker? Awesome as usual.

Andrew is closely related to Anthony Recker of course.

All 1B/3B/CF etc. It's just a lot easier that way and it works too - while the average contains a lot of backups, you can also assume that the player listed will also have backup time.

Hmm, my explanation made no sense.

It's just a really great move.

I think they meant is there any way to account for the pickoffs in his ZiPS projection -- i.e. he'd have a lower ERA than his peripherals would lead you to believe either because he's removing some baserunners, they're not stealing and not taking the extra base because of short leads.

Beane has to find better solutions at SS, 3B and 1B

Not at 3B if ZiPS is to be believed. Both Chavez and Hannahan project as just a bit below average -- unless the gap between average CF and average 3B has gotten bigger than it used to be. And ZiPS suggests Hannahan would be fine at 2B as well though I don't know if that defensive rating is reliable.

No I wouldn't want to go into next year with Hannahan as my 3B ... I'm just saying ZiPS says he wouldn't suck. I would be fine going in with a healthy Chavez should such a mythical critter exist.

Hmm, my explanation made no sense.

it's a feature, not a bug. :-)

And yeah, Gio Gonzalez doesn't look too good right now. Who was the other guy they got in that trade?

And Chris Gissell -- I remember using him as my 6th or 7th starter for a DMB team like 6-7 years ago.

They also got Fautino De Los Santos, who is injured I think, and Ryan Sweeney, who actually looked pretty good last year.

I'm more concerned with him getting hurt than I am by him repeating his 2008 with the bat.

He had shin issues this year too: the A's called it "shin splints", which could mean anything from some muscular pain, to a fracture.

Not at 3B if ZiPS is to be believed. Both Chavez and Hannahan project as just a bit below average

Well, the thing with Chavez is just how badly his back and shoulder are damaged, and how much he has healed. At this point, any statistical projections are pretty much random guesses.

Both Chavez and Hannahan project as just a bit below average

Brandon Wood -- .229/283/.393
Jack Hannahan - .247/.340/.373 in a tougher park to hit in.

I'm still trying to get my head around this one.

If the A's win 80 games next year, I'll be in a state of disbelief. I'll go so far as to say there's almost no chance of it happening.

I think they meant is there any way to account for the pickoffs in his ZiPS projection -- i.e. he'd have a lower ERA than his peripherals would lead you to believe either because he's removing some baserunners, they're not stealing and not taking the extra base because of short leads.

Take away time constraints, and I'd love to include it in the CHONE projections. All I would need is a datasource showing how many pickoffs every pitcher has, and come up with a formula and regression to predict next year's pickoffs. Right now I don't have that datasource. I guess I'd need to learn how to spyder the major and minor league gameday files.

I'm still trying to get my head around this one.

Hannahan hit much, much better than Wood in 2007.

He had shin issues this year too: the A's called it "shin splints", which could mean anything from some muscular pain, to a fracture.

He's had a multitude of injuries over the past few years, including a relatively bad concussion. Maybe I'm putting too much weight on his late season resurgence, but I think he'll be around average (for his position) in 2009.

According to Dewan, Cust is 13 plays and 21 bases below average in the field over 1088.4 innings in 2007-08, so that's -16 runs per 162 games. Not necessarily *the* worst corner outfielder in MLB, but certainly in that neighborhood--about at the level where he's equally valuable as a DH and an outfielder. UZR is not yet available for the second half of 2008, but through July '08, Lichtman has him at -10 runs in 90 defensive games, which translates to -18 runs per 162. That's pretty close agreement between the two of them that he stinks.

Thanks. That's definitely poor. I wonder what it is that basic ZR and RZR are missing on him. Perhaps the A's pitchers have just induced easily fieldable BIP towards Cust?

I think they meant is there any way to account for the pickoffs in his ZiPS projection -- i.e. he'd have a lower ERA than his peripherals would lead you to believe either because he's removing some baserunners, they're not stealing and not taking the extra base because of short leads.

Yes, that's what I meant. Though it seems like Smith might face the same paradox the best defensive catchers face. Instead of saving runs with his pickoffs and good CS rate, he may simply shut down the running game altogether. In the first half last year, he had 9 SB, 9 CS, and 10 pickoffs. In the second half, he had just 2 SB, 3 CS, and 5 pickoffs. If people stop running on him and take smaller leads to avoid pickoffs, he won't save any runs on SB/CS/PK. Though I guess he'd prevent more people from taking extra bases on BIP given their smaller leads.

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Jairo Garcia was downright awful after coming back from the DL, allowing a ~.950 OPS with more walks than Ks in 30 IP. I'd be more surprised by a sub-4.00 ERA in 2009 than I would be by season ending surgery.

Maybe I'm putting too much weight on his late season resurgence, but I think he'll be around average (for his position) in 2009.

Oh I agree, as long as he can stay healthy. I'm basically saying that this season's crappiness was likely injury related.

Take away time constraints, and I'd love to include it in the CHONE projections. All I would need is a datasource showing how many pickoffs every pitcher has, and come up with a formula and regression to predict next year's pickoffs. Right now I don't have that datasource. I guess I'd need to learn how to spyder the major and minor league gameday files.

Baseball Reference has the data, but I don't know how easily spider-able it is.

Dan, can we get a projection for Jesus Guzman? Thanks!

Not a whole lot of strikeouts from that pitching staff.

Gonzalez is 22 years old and striking out a man an inning in both the big leagues and AAA. I think he'll be fine. His season may have been a little disappointing, but not nearly as much as Swisher's. Ryan Sweeney actually outhit Swisher.

Fautino De Los Santos started five games in the minors and went down injured (that seems to happen to a lot of pitchers the White Sox trade).

Hannahan born March 4, 1980
Wood born March 2, 1985

What's with all the gio hate? A 22 yr old that K's a man an inning in the MLB is the profile you want. He's got some major control issues, but those are likely to decrease just through normal development. He might stink next year, but by 2010 he'll hopefully be at least league average (as a 24 yr old).

What's with all the gio hate?

Hate? Recognizing that someone projects to an ERA a full 1.25 runs worse than an average starter now constitutes hate?

Man people are strange these days.

Anyway, it's precisely the projected K-rate that has me sayiing he "doesn't look too good right now." Did you notice that, for whatever reason (Dan?), ZiPS projects him to just 109 K in 151 IP? That's a league-average K-rate these days. His minor-league K-rate has been the main reason he's been considered a prospect. Furthermore, he projects far worse than Cahill, Anderson, Mazzarro, Gallagher, Eveleand and even Smith, Outman and Braden (most of whom have crappy projected K-rates -- Dan?). And Rodriguez and Simmons. While it's probably a wonderful thing for the A's, that Gonzalez is projected as the 11th best starter 25 and under in the system does not suggest he has a bright future.

If Beane believes in ZiPS, I'd expect to see Gonzalez traded this offseason.

Does the Fremont development go thru in the current economic climate?

Must have something to do with the ballpark. I'd call Swisher's 2006 a breakout year, but then he's regressed. He'd make a nice Angel next year since they'll need new corner outfielders (assuming Vlad at DH, Torii in center, Rivera & GA gone, GMJ & Willits on the bench). Since they were playing Wise over him in the playoffs, maybe KW will sell low on him, possibly for another shortstop to replace Cabrera.

Yeah, cause Williams has such a habit of selling low on folks. That's why he has such a hard time making good trades.

What is the conventional wisdom on Carlos Gonzalez? He seemed to show flashes of competence last year, with good doubles power, speed and defense, but he grades out as only FR in CF (which I'm assuming is worse than average) and I see that his final season totals were unimpressive. Still, he's young, and as someone who watched the games last season I would have seen him as a big part of the A's future.

Does the Fremont development go thru in the current economic climate?

It had been looking less and less likely before the meltdown. The only thing going for the project is that the land is readily available. Which is obviously very important, but the location is almost unworkable. It would be a travesty, in this day and age, in the Bay Area no less, to build a sports stadium with no public transit access. Wolff has suggested that a BART station will be built at the new stadium location, but a look at the map is all it takes to dispel that idea - the proposed location is not near the BART line. And if Wolff thinks he can get a spur built off the BART mainline track, I'd say he's dreaming. As far as I can tell, Wolff proposed the move to Fremont some time ago, everyone pointed out what a bad idea it was, and nothing has really progressed since then.

Player Spotlight - Jack Cust
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jason Thompson, Jim Gentile

Worth noting that neither Thompson or Gentile lasted long after their age-30 seasons.

-- MWE

No way Gio pitches that badly.

Hate? Recognizing that someone projects to an ERA a full 1.25 runs worse than an average starter now constitutes hate?

Man people are strange these days.

Anyway, it's precisely the projected K-rate that has me sayiing he "doesn't look too good right now." Did you notice that, for whatever reason (Dan?), ZiPS projects him to just 109 K in 151 IP? That's a league-average K-rate these days. His minor-league K-rate has been the main reason he's been considered a prospect. Furthermore, he projects far worse than Cahill, Anderson, Mazzarro, Gallagher, Eveleand and even Smith, Outman and Braden (most of whom have crappy projected K-rates -- Dan?). And Rodriguez and Simmons. While it's probably a wonderful thing for the A's, that Gonzalez is projected as the 11th best starter 25 and under in the system does not suggest he has a bright future.

It's relatively easy to be more optimistic on Gio than ZiPS is.

In 2008, he put up the 3rd best FIP (3.92) in the PCL (AAA) among the 47 pitchers who qualified (Strangely, Dan Meyer was second). He was also the third youngest pitcher in the league to throw 100+ IP.

In 2007, he had the 2nd lowest FIP (2.78) in the Southern League (AA), while being the 2nd youngest SP in the league.

Pitchers don't have the same general aging patterns as hitters, but it's not hard to like Gio as a guy who has performed very well against older competition.

It's relatively easy to be more optimistic on Gio than ZiPS is.

I agree. While he definitely had problems in MLB this year, I do question any assessment that his long term prognosis is poor because of that. Is he going to do well this year if he's in MLB? Probably not. The fact he doesn't average over 90 mph on his fastball raises questions, but then his curve is supposed to be top notch. And the fact that he continued to strike out batters at such a high rate is an indicator of future success.

Jonathan Sanchez was really bad in 07, and then was very good for a substantial portion of last year before he imploded. I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzalez has a similar progression, although I think his breakthrough year will be 2010.

2 requests, if you please: Jesus Guzman (echoing Danny @ 34) and another guy who interests him, C Joel Galarraga (has only played in Cuba and Mexico - data from the latter suggests he's above replacement level*).

* YMMV depending on your lg factors, of course.