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Did you not see him in the World Series? It appeared that at some point in the season, he had suddenly learned to throw 150 MPH.
Well, can't argue with that.
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Lou Whitaker, Charlie Gehringer, Highpockets Kelly
Highpockets? What kind of nickname is that. According to the "urban dictionary" that's someone with a "very large, very high" ass.
OK, apparently also a tall person ... and Kelly was 6'4" ... he must have been a giant back in 1915. I take it his HoF presence is due to Frisch.
Top Near-Age Comps: Frank Tanana, Vida Blue, Johnny Antonelli
So he's gonna blow out his arm but have a very long career as an average innings-eater or he's gonna be a workhorse till he's 30 then blow out his arm.
I'm shocked(!!) that you passed up this opportunity to give us Jamie Moyer's near-age comps.
I'm guessing Lazarus, Methusaleh and Harveys Wallbanger.
Anyone else think Werth is a little low? Or am I zooey-looey?
As for the actual performance, obviously Utley's 26-29 season have been much better than Whitaker's. Yet almost all of that difference in value is in power, which 6-4-3 correctly noted is the big difference between the two. Whitaker had 69 neutralized HRs & 147 2B + 3B from 26-29 to Utley's 115 HRs & 186 2Bs + 3Bs. Everything else is a solid match: hits (694 for Lou to 714 for Utley), PAs (2701 for Whitaker, 2687 for Utley), average (.297 neutralized for Sweet Lou, .304 for Utley [un-neutral=.290W to .305U]) and walks (9.6% of PAs for Lou, 9.2% for Utley). As Dan intimates, the number of second basemen who could even approach Utley's value is pretty small. When you take into account the shape of that value, it becomes impossible to find a perfect match. I assume ZiPs sacrificed a bit on power, because the two are so similar in durability, Avg, OBP & BBs. When everything else is so close, Whitaker's merely good power vs. Utley's excellent power isn't such a big deal.
Trying to come up with other 2B comps, everyone else seems to have some defect or large disparity that would probably put them out of the running. Joe Morgan was closer than Whitaker in terms of overall value & neutralized power, but he had 2 times as many walks per season as Utley over that age span. I suspect ZiPs would see that as a huge difference. Biggio's closer too on overall value and on gap power (207 2Bs + 3Bs), but he's even further away on HRs (65), games played (572) and again he's more of a walker (11+%). Ryne Sandberg doesn't compare because he had a mid-career lull from ages 26-28. Jeff Kent didn't become Superman until age 30. Joe Gordon didn't have an age 29 season. Bobby Grich missed 100 games in his age 28 season and didn't really hit that many HRs in that span. Soriano had the power, but not the average or the walks. Alomar was too fragile (502 GP). Nap Lajoie & Rogers Hornsby played a form of baseball in which players could bat .400. Gehringer, though, is a good comp. too.
hopefully that means he'll be a better sports analysis after he retires.
It wasn't that Whitaker wasn't durable- he couldn't hit lefties at all, and after awhile the Tigers simply stopped letting him "hit" against them
And, does ZiPS factor that in?
Yeah, generally accepted that he is a Frisch guy and is one of the very worst players in there. (James has a fun story about getting a letter from Kelly's daughter or something disputing this. No disrespect of course, but, he just is.)
They also have better pitching then they are given credit for.
The 2008 Phillies had a team ERA+ of 113
The 2008 Phillies had a team OPS+ of 104
their leader was Utley at 135
The only guy likely to better 2008 is Howard (Rollins 103 mark is the 2nd best of his career, his career average is 99)
Without Utley for 1/2 year, a little regression from Werth and from Ibanez and from Dobbs, they could easily slip under 100 next year.
Ryan Howard's OPS+ progression: 167, 144, 124, I've always seen Howard as the 2nd coming of Cecil Fielder, he's in better physical shape, but he's basically the same player, I think he's going to settle in around 120 for few years, but if he continues his progression and hits 100, and Utley misses 300-400 PAs... this will be a below average offense.
Have you seen their division? The Mets will contend, but without adding a starter and an outfielder they are only maybe a mid to high 80s win team. Florida and Atlanta both have a chance to be okay, but they are still behind the Mets. Washington is Washington. This Phillies team could still win 88 games as constructed, and that might be enough to get them into the dance.
Sad but true, the 2009 NL east leader could easily be under 90 wins next year...
but that usually doesn't happen, because usually one team (or more) greatly outperforms what you think they are capable of.
Right now the NL East has 2 teams that should win in the high 80s- at least one will probably clear 90
I think the Phillie's big problem is that it is extremely unlikely their pen will duplicate 2008.
The Phillies lost fewer leads after 7 innings than, well, just about anyone.
The Phillies had fewer leads after 7 ip in 2008 than the Mets, or the Cardinals.
Extremely effective Pens tend to be transitory (except for the Yankees who have Mariano, and the Angels who have made a deal with beezelbub I guess)
Extremely poor Pens also tend to be transitory (except for Colorado which has to deal with Coors, and KC, which is cursed).
The Phillies had a far more effective Pen than the Mets or Cardinals in 2008, in fact it was that Pen that was the difference maker- however over the past 3 years the Phillies pen was only slightly more effective (judging by save %) than the Mets or Card's pen, and over 7 years the Phil's pen was slightly less effective... If the only thing separating 2 teams (or 3) are their pens, you should basically assume that difference will disappear on its own.
THAT is true but the problem that all NL East teams have is their reliance on their starters - no NL East team can really afford to lose a main player even a non superstar....
Phillies big,big hole is at 3B like the Mets at 2B & the Braves at RF....overall this division is "weaker" on paper than say the Central but isn't that what most pundits say comparing the AL & the NL.
They had a "perfect" 08 season (Lidge comes to mind) which will be difficult to repeat unless rookies step up eg Marson/Halman/Donald
Madson cited a "eureka!" moment in a bullpen session after he was shelled by the Cubs on August 28 - a tweak in his delivery bumped up his fastball about 3-4 MPH, and it became much more consistent both in velocity and location. After that session:
27 IP, 23 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 30 K, 0.67 ERA, 0.926 WHIP
Well worth the cash, IMHO. I wasn't impressed with his free agent moves, but Amaro's doing nicely in the arbitration settlements so far.
he's had stretches like that before
But, you'd assume if the velocity bump is real, it's more than just randomness. Guys don't just have "random" months where they throw 3-4 MPH faster. This should be verifiable from the pitch tracking, shouldn't it?
You could say that if you only look at these offensive stats, but the Phillies do have the best defensive 3B in baseball.
eh? KC's 2008 pen:
Soria 67 IP 266 ERA+ (yes 266)
Ramirez 72 IP 162 ERA+
Mahay 65 IP 123 ERA+
Nunez 48 IP 143 ERA+
Tejeda 33 IP 133 ERA+
They got about 120 IP of utter crap from some guys they maybe didn't expect to be utter crap but what team doesn't? Why the 2007 Royals of course:
Soria 69 IP 189 ERA+
Gobble 54 IP 156 ERA+ (OK, that was a fluke)
Riske 70 IP 191 ERA+
Peralta 88 IP 124 ERA+
Greinke (as a reliever) 53 IP 132 ERA+
Nunez 44 IP 120 ERA+
Bale 40 IP 116 ERA+
Dotel 23 IP 120 ERA+
In 2007, apparently they could have sent me out there and I'd have put up at least a 110 ERA+ ... which makes me better than the other Ryan Braun. :-)
There's only one thing the Royals have done well of late ... and you didn't even notice. Now you're making them feel bad.
Guys don't just have "random" months where they throw 3-4 MPH faster.
Oh I dunno about that. Depends on your notion of "random" of course but between minor injuries, mechanical problems and fixes, "dead arm" periods and the like, I wouldn't be surprised to find velocities "randomly" bouncing around. Heck, I'm supposed to believe that defenders can "randomly" bounce from +10 to -5, I have no problem believing Madson capable of a hot streak where the fastball was popping.
I wonder if the Phils have kicked the tires on Ken Griffey Jr.? There have been rumors of two NL teams showing interest, but no specific teams have been cited. Werth could play against LHP and sub on defense at either corner for Ibanez or Griffey, and Griffey's still a good hitter against RHP. John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer thought he'd be looking for $3-4M on a one-year deal.
Mind you, the Phils' pitching staff would be cringing at the thought of Ibanez and Griffey on the outfield corners....
Spoken like a man who hasn't seen Ollie Perez or Aaron Heilman pitch enough...
last 7 years the KC pen has 157 blown saves out of 388 save opps.
they were above average in 2007 and 2008, and wretched every other year. Their 59.5% save % the last 7 years is 30th out of 30. The Angels over the same period were at 75.7%.
Having a pen blow more saves than average 5 straight years is quite a feat- having one of the 3 worst save rates five straight years is an even greater feat- but alas, extending that streak beyond 5 years was beyond even KC's suckitude.
Theres also no adequate fill-in at SS for the next couple years. Donald is a solid player, but putting him at short could be disastrous with that noodle arm. Especially considering that... A. His actions and range aren't more than solid so they can't really make up for that arm. B. The blow to the pitching staff would be tremendous when you consider than you'd go from a plus glove in Rollins to a poor-to-very poor one in Donald.
Eckstien-type D would be the best case but Donald doesn't have the accuracy Eckstein has, nor are his fundamentals as strong.
Well, they did benefit from some cheap and excellent talent, but last year at least was hardly a case of everything clicking.
Rollins got hurt early and only played 137 games (down about 21 games from his average season).
Utley played through an obvious injury for nearly four months of the season.
A guy (Howard) whom ZiPS predicts to have a 98% chance of an OBP above .325 played the vast majority of the season below that number.
Ruiz dropped 23 points of OPS+ off the previous year.
Jenkins (whose demise admittedly could have been predicted) completely fell in the tank, Brett Myers lost any confidence in himself for half the season, Kendrick regressed, etc.
I agree that in the bullpen, where there is generally a lot of variability, the Phils pen played at the top of their game while the Mets pen didn't, but that's baseball. To extrapolate an edge in the variability of one element of the team to "everything going right" is just sour grapes.
I consider the Phils pretty strongly anchored to that 85-90 win range because I think they have several guys capable of keeping them in games, even if they experience an injury to a starter or two. On the flip side, I don't see the Phils as having anyone terribly likely to exceed his ZIPS projection by a large margin other than Happ (I think he's a good bet for a 4.60 ERA) and possibly Myers, but I wouldn't bet much on the latter.
Well, eventually one of them is going to miss 50+ games, even if it's just a fluke injury. The Mets have been extremely fortunate is that regard.
Pat Gillick is gone. That will make a huge difference.
If you look at the record of the Blue Jays, Orioles, & Mariners pre Gillick, during Gillick, and post Gillick you will swill see that he is a tremendous difference maker.
The "Burrell and two draft picks" for Ibanez move is typical of new Phillie thinking.
I know that Gillick is a big fan of Burrell. He may have had a role in bringing Ibanez to Philly, but I pretty sure that he preferred Burrell if that option was still open.
Gillick's record in Toronto:
1983: 89-73
1984: 89-73
1985: 99-62 won AL East
1986: 86-76
1987: 96-66
1988: 87-75
1989: 89-73 won AL East
1990: 86-76
1991: 91-71 won AL East
1992: 96-66 won World Series
1993: 95-67 won World Series
then he left and the Jays were below .500 for the next three seasons
the Orioles were 71-73 in 95, the last season before Gillick. Then with Gillick they went 88-74, 98-64, and 79-83 (suffering from Angelo's contant interference causing him to leave) making the playoffs in both 96 and 97. These are the only two seasons that the Orioles have made the playoffs since 1983.
Then with Seattle he took a below .500 team to 91, 116, 93, & 93 win seasons and two ALCS appearances. They won 63 and 69 games in the two seasons after he left.
Then on to Philly where he took a struggling team to two NL East titles and a World Series Championship.
All in all not a bad record. This is a guy who has a tremendous positive impact everywhere he has gone.
I'm not arguing that Gillick's a bad GM - quite the contrary, he's a damn good one. I'm just saying you can't just put Burrell and Ibanez on Amaro's tab and say Gillick had nothing to do with either one.
Age - Of their starting position players, all are either in their prime years or past their prime years. Since players rarely make performance steps in the 30s, I don't think the line up has much upside. Also, some players fall of a cliff in their 30s, I think the line up has a lot of downside.
That said, they have a huge hole at 3b, and if they are to acquire a league average 3b, that'd greatly improve the line up.
Well, everyone can't have league average and better players at every position. :) I would like to see Manuel give Dobbs more time at 3B -- I'm not sure if the math quite works, but if he can get Dobbs 55% of the ABs and Feliz 55% of the innings in the field, the position would not be a total sinkhole. Feliz impressed the heck out of me defensively last year, matching his incoming rep.
On the other hand, would I like the Phils to upgrade that position? You betcha.
You could say that if you only look at these offensive stats, but the Phillies do have the best defensive 3B in baseball.
I'll give you ManRam. Dunn-upgrade, but no so sold on him as a game changer.
Abreu, I'm also not sure about. Does the new CITI field have walls?
I'd like to second this statement. The stats seem to indicate it was a below average fielding year by Feliz standards, but it was just a different feel.
When the ball got hit to third base, I *expected* Feliz to field it and throw out the runner. I knew he wasn't going to get all of them, but if he got leather on it, that meant in my mind that the play was over.
With Bell and Helms over there, when the ball was hit to 3rd, I'd cringe. Furthermore, if they got to it, I worried if it'd be a good throw, and even came to expect a bad one, especially if it was the 8th or 9th inning.
Feliz = automatic last year, and that's an awesome feeling at 3b. He may have hit only marginally better than Bell, but he was a comfort to have in the field.
Both directions? Maine is a known quantity by now--I don't think anyone projects him as more than a 2-1/2 starter; and it's tough to see a pitcher with Pelfrey's stuff and K rate getting better. I dunno, gang. I think we bungled the offseason, and I think Madoff killed off whatever chance we had of buying our way out this late in the day.
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