BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

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1. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 14, 2009 at 04:06 PM (#3051616)

Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

2. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 04:12 PM (#3051625)

Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

Yep. He very quietly excelled last year.

3. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 14, 2009 at 04:14 PM (#3051630)

Will wonders never cease.

4. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3051672)

Jody Gerut and Cody Ross were cheap mid-season waiver wire pickups that greatly helped my NL only team

5. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:27 PM (#3051700)

Probably 2009's best bet to exceed 100 losses, especially if they "succeed" in trading Peavy.

And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

6. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3051709)

And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

I'd take Chase Headley, too.

7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:41 PM (#3051719)

Chris Burke and Mark Prior just signed with the Padres if you want to include them.

I'll do Prior:

Age 28 0.00 ERA 0-0 0 G 0 GS 0 INN 0 H 0 ER 0 HR 0 BB 0 K undefined ERA+

Top Near Age Comps: Darren Dreifort, Carl Pavano

8. RJ in TO Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:45 PM (#3051723)

And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

I'd take Chase Headley, too.

Kouzmanoff could also be useful. Other than that, that's a really ungood team.

9. Guapo Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:58 PM (#3051742)

The only bright spot is that Young should pitch more than projected below as he missed time mainly due to atypical pitcher injuries, a strained forearm and a line drive to his face, much less worrying than the usual vague tendinitis that you sometimes see reported before Tommy John surgery.

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

10. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:59 PM (#3051744)

Headley and Kouzmanoff are useful league-average (maybe slightly above league-average, depending on defense) players, but when I said "really want" I was thinking more a long the guys that are stars, not just useful.

11. Justin T contains indigenous nudity Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:14 PM (#3051770)

I think it'll be tough for any team in the NL West to come in over 100 losses. Wagers welcome.

12. Justin T contains indigenous nudity Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3051771)

Eh, 99 losses last season and they're worse this year. Redacted.

13. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:16 PM (#3051774)

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

Is it weird that mine was not?

14. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3051779)

Is it weird that mine was not?

That just means you saw one of Carl Pavano's 7 starts this year.

15. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:22 PM (#3051784)

That just means you saw one of Carl Pavano's 7 starts this year.

It would have been sad if younger Yankee fans weren't treated to their very own Ed Whitson. You guys should get on your knees and thank Jebus for Carl Pavano.

16. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:24 PM (#3051786)

This lineup will look a lot better once the Padres trade for Eric Byrnes.

17. Mike Emeigh

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:25 PM (#3051789)

they're probably going to trade Blanks, though given the Padres situation, I wouldn't be surprised if they seriously explored trading Gonzalez next winter.

I think it'll happen sooner than that, especially if the Padres are not competitive at the start of the season and Blanks rakes at AAA. I truly expect Gonzalez to be gone by the trading deadline.

-- MWE

18. Walt Davis Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:04 PM (#3051856)

Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

Nah, bbc just got at ZiPS when Dan wasn't looking. :-)

Anyway, while it would be defensively pretty horrible, that's not a bad lineup when everybody's healthy:

C: Alfonso
1B: Gonzalez
2B: Kouzmanoff (wasn't there talk of moving him last year?)
SS: whoever
3B: Headley
OF: Giles, Gerut, Hairston

Yes, that defense is probably too horrible for words and you'd want to find either a real CF or a real 2B. Is there really nobody out there who needs Kouzmanoff?

19. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:31 PM (#3051896)

The thought of Kouzmanoff at second base brought a smile to my face.

20. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:33 PM (#3051897)

Also, Alfonso will probably be the backup to Hundley (at least that's what KT is saying).

21. ugen64 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3051929)

Speaking of the Orioles, I remember the Orioles could have traded Sidney Ponson + cash for Adrian Gonzalez, but we didn't, because we were cheap and didn't want to pay too much of Ponson's salary. This is almost as bad as the Daniel Cabrera + Jorge Julio + Larry Bigbie for A.J. Burnett + Mike Lowell trade we could have pulled off, except we didn't want to pay Mike Lowell's salary because he was essentially included in the deal as a salary dump.

Oh, never change Orioles.

22. ugen64 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:50 PM (#3051933)

Oh, also, I forgot to make the actual relevant point - Peavy + Young + 3 replacement starters is probably still a lot better than the Orioles' rotation, and I bet the Padres will be able to scrounge up a few starters that are above replacement level.

23. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:53 PM (#3051938)

24. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:02 PM (#3051949)

I'll bet the under on Kouzmanoff. Like Burroughs before him, he has underwhelemed.

25. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3051964)

I'll go with that bet.

26. mitchell Posted: January 15, 2009 at 01:49 AM (#3052307)

I'll do Prior:

Age 28 0.00 ERA 0-0 0 G 0 GS 0 INN 0 H 0 ER 0 HR 0 BB 0 K undefined ERA+

LOL!!!

27. frenchredsox Posted: January 15, 2009 at 03:02 AM (#3052351)

Who the heck is Zackson Quezada to get such a nasty projection ??

Also no projection for (although injured) 154+ ERA-man Mike Adams ?

BTW this team is not as bad as some EG the Astros & if the Moorad group gets in there quick they have the resources to challenge in the weak West......

28. frenchredsox Posted: January 15, 2009 at 03:16 AM (#3052359)

Oh, also, I forgot to make the actual relevant point - Peavy + Young + 3 replacement starters is probably still a lot better than the Orioles' rotation, and I bet the Padres will be able to scrounge up a few starters that are above replacement level.

Well yes n no .... because the Padres no #3 is actually in Boston's AAA team,the no 4 is a FA (& is Tomko *shudders to think of him as a 4 starter for ANYONE*) whereas the O's did sign Uehara & do have SOME real talent in the minors almost ready eg Tillman/Hernandez or Arrieta --- the Friars have nobody even close ?

As of today:
SDP rotation is Peavy,Young,Baek,Geer,Reineke or Banks
O's rotation is Guthrie,Uehara,Hendrickson,Burres,Liz or Olson.

Clear that Friars are better going into 09 season but also that AS IT stands today by 10/11 the Orioles will be in far better shape & that is without the Peavy situation included.

29. me Posted: January 15, 2009 at 04:35 AM (#3052392)

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

You are confusing it with a torn labia.

30. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 15, 2009 at 05:04 AM (#3052418)

The Quezada projection was surprising. The Padres were clearly worried about losing him in the Rule 5 draft, so maybe it shouldn't be.

31. thetailor Posted: January 15, 2009 at 06:06 AM (#3052456)

What ever happened to Justin Huber? He hit .271/.414/.487 as a 21 year old AA catcher, then .343/.432/.570 in AA the next year in 330 ABs before moving up to AAA and hitting .274/.374/.531. Did he get hurt? He hit very well in AA and AAA at 21 and 22, over 650+ at-bats. Did he get hurt? Did he just suck? Have we been over this before?

32. Jonk Posted: January 15, 2009 at 07:28 AM (#3052487)

Why is Headley's projection at third considered "very good" while Kouzmanoff's is "average"? They look virtually identical to me: 110 OPS+ versus 109.

33. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 15, 2009 at 01:06 PM (#3052538)

I don't know much about Huber, but his stats suggest a guy who's never been given a fair shake in the majors. He looks like he'd profile as a .260/.330/.520 hitter. That has to be useful for some team, even if he's stuck at 1B.

34. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: January 15, 2009 at 04:19 PM (#3052693)

Is there a player more underrated by the mainstream than Brian Giles?

In 2009 he should pass 300 Win Shares, which (say what you will about the flaws in that system) generally means a guy is approaching contention for the Hall of Fame / borderline candidacy. Now, I'm not saying Giles is a Hall of Famer -- not enough Black or Gray Ink, less than 300 HR so far, just 7 seasons playing 140+ games, just 2 All-Star nods -- but Giles is certainly HOVG and will last all of one or two HoF ballots before falling off.

35. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 15, 2009 at 04:23 PM (#3052700)

Huber was never that great (as a 1B) and is getting significantly worse. Make him a backstop again and we'll talk...

36. Greg (U)K Posted: January 16, 2009 at 06:38 AM (#3053442)

I think in another world Brian Giles could be a real Hall of Fame candidate
If he started somewhere other than Cleveland where he was blocked and didn't get a real start until he was 26
If he finished his career somewhere other than PETCO

I guess he does have inherently under-rate-able skills though...

37. Steini's Famous Garbage Pitch Posted: January 16, 2009 at 08:35 PM (#3053915)

I think they should think about converting a reliever to starter, this worked reasonably well with Gaudin, Looper and Wainwright (although the latter used to be a starter).

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

Larry David already covered this subject. If this was The Simpsons seasons 1-8 and not real life, Mr. Burns' lawyer would beat you up now.

38. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 16, 2009 at 08:48 PM (#3053933)

Is there a player more underrated by the mainstream than Brian Giles?

Haven't we been having this discussion for at least 10 years now?

Anyway, it's hard to get behind a player for HOF when his most memorable hits came against his former girlfriend.

But strictly on the numbers, he won't have anywhere near enough counting stats to merit any sort of serious consideration for the HOF from the BBWAA.

39. baseballfreako Posted: January 18, 2009 at 05:42 AM (#3054574)

I agree with Bukanier

40. Jonk Posted: January 22, 2009 at 11:55 AM (#3057777)

No Trevor Hoffman signing analysis? We get a Willie Bloomquist cartoon but no numbers for the new Brewers' closer? :(

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