User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.8482 seconds
64 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, November 22, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants
I can't believe I'm going to say it, but Brian Sabean has actually done a pretty good job in the last year. Although I still think the Rowand signing is a bad idea and the offense is still terrible, the team has a lot of interesting arms and a few offensive prospects that are pretty promising.As I see it, Sabean's main challenges are:
- Sorting out the positional logjams. Sandoval's got a strong arm and is a much better athlete than he looks like - he can do a little more than fake 3B, though he's raw and unlikely to ever be strong there. He can handle the tools of ignorance too, but Posey's coming up behind him. 1B is likely where Villalona will end up, too. I'd probably give Sandoval first shot at 3B until he proves he can't handle it. The Giants also need to see what they can do with the Lewis/Rowand/Winn outfield - all 3 could be playing center for other teams and it's one of the few organizational surpluses at the MLB level. I'd certainly try to trade Winn at least.
- Thinning out the Ortmeier Cloud. The Giants have about a million positional players in the 4th OF/5th IF variety and they need to spend time sorting out who they want as a part of the team going forward. They need to know about players like Schierholtz, Bowker, Frandsen, and Ishikawa, because if there's no serious attempt to figure out just what they can do, they're wasting space on the 40-man roster. All of them are old enough that just hanging around on the fringes of the majors will enhance their trade value.
- Resisting the temptation to short-circuit rebuilding. The rotation looks solid, even if ZiPS yearly too-optimistic look at Barry Zito fails to pan out, and a few lucky seasons from the offense and the Giants are competing in a very bad division. Getting, say, Brian Roberts for Sandoval/Tanner/Romo is a bad idea if it's just to charge for 83 wins and get into the playoffs.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CATCHERS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Pablo Sandoval# c 22 .284 .313 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 2 2 98 Vg
AVERAGE
Bengie Molina c 34 .283 .312 .423 123 452 38 128 22 1 13 58 16 41 0 0 91 Fr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAIR
Stephen Holm c 29 .238 .312 .365 57 181 18 43 8 0 5 21 17 35 1 0 77 Av
Eliezer Alfonzo c 30 .255 .290 .396 76 255 23 65 13 1 7 30 9 61 1 1 78 Av
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIRST BASEMEN
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Josh Phelps 1b 31 .273 .339 .457 115 403 47 110 22 2 16 58 35 93 1 1 106 Fr
Nate Schierholtz* rf 25 .296 .329 .461 126 469 62 139 28 5 13 63 18 62 10 4 104 Av
FAIR
Pablo Sandoval# c 22 .284 .313 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 2 2 98 Av
Brett Harper* 1b 27 .272 .306 .438 104 338 36 92 20 0 12 47 15 64 1 0 92 Fr
POOR
Scott McClain 1b 37 .254 .318 .411 129 460 55 117 22 1 16 60 43 84 2 2 89 Av
Brian Horwitz lf 26 .277 .336 .370 120 386 41 107 16 1 6 39 32 47 2 1 85 Av
Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 12 2 83 Av
John Bowker* 1b 25 .258 .306 .421 139 484 54 125 22 3 17 64 29 95 3 4 88 Av
Travis Ishikawa* 1b 25 .242 .300 .431 124 450 53 109 26 1 19 63 34 95 5 3 89 Av
Rich Aurilia 1b 37 .268 .318 .374 99 302 28 81 15 1 5 32 21 42 0 1 81 Av
Dan Ortmeier# lf 28 .238 .286 .368 101 345 37 82 16 1 9 39 21 72 10 4 70 Av
Angel Villalona 1b 18 .225 .261 .378 123 476 46 107 22 0 17 58 13 97 1 2 65 Fr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SECOND BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
FAIR
Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 12 2 83 Fr
Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 6 5 82 Av
POOR
Eugenio Velez# lf 27 .266 .307 .386 133 448 57 119 23 8 5 45 24 73 39 16 83 Pr
Ivan Ochoa# ss 26 .256 .314 .333 112 363 42 93 15 2 3 32 25 70 15 7 70 Av
Emmanuel Burriss# ss 24 .254 .307 .294 123 425 58 108 12 1 1 31 29 46 39 13 59 Vg
Brian Bocock ss 24 .195 .256 .247 100 369 34 72 13 0 2 25 30 84 24 13 33 Vg
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIRD BASEMEN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pablo Sandoval# c 22 .284 .313 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 2 2 98 Fr
FAIR
Scott McClain 1b 37 .254 .318 .411 129 460 55 117 22 1 16 60 43 84 2 2 89 Fr
POOR
Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 12 2 83 Av
Rich Aurilia 1b 37 .268 .318 .374 99 302 28 81 15 1 5 32 21 42 0 1 81 Fr
Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 6 5 82 Av
Ryan Rohlinger 3b 25 .229 .284 .360 139 520 62 119 24 1 14 58 35 74 5 4 68 Vg
Angel Villalona 1b 18 .225 .261 .378 123 476 46 107 22 0 17 58 13 97 1 2 65 Pr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHORTSTOPS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 12 2 83 Pr
FAIR
Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 6 5 82 Fr
Ivan Ochoa# ss 26 .256 .314 .333 112 363 42 93 15 2 3 32 25 70 15 7 70 Av
POOR
Emmanuel Burriss# ss 24 .254 .307 .294 123 425 58 108 12 1 1 31 29 46 39 13 59 Vg
Omar Vizquel# ss 42 .227 .285 .277 87 282 27 64 9 1 1 20 24 28 6 2 48 Ex
Brian Bocock ss 24 .195 .256 .247 100 369 34 72 13 0 2 25 30 84 24 13 33 Vg
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nate Schierholtz* rf 25 .296 .329 .461 126 469 62 139 28 5 13 63 18 62 10 4 104 Av Av
Randy Winn# rf 35 .287 .345 .413 136 523 69 150 32 2 10 60 45 73 14 3 98 Av Av
Fred Lewis* lf 28 .267 .342 .416 131 450 75 120 21 8 10 54 50 108 17 6 98 Vg Av
POOR
Brett Harper* 1b 27 .272 .306 .438 104 338 36 92 20 0 12 47 15 64 1 0 92 Pr
Brian Horwitz lf 26 .277 .336 .370 120 386 41 107 16 1 6 39 32 47 2 1 85 Av Av
Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 12 2 83 Vg Vg
John Bowker* 1b 25 .258 .306 .421 139 484 54 125 22 3 17 64 29 95 3 4 88 Av Av
Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 6 5 82 Av Av
Dave Roberts* lf 37 .247 .330 .333 67 198 29 49 8 3 1 17 25 35 11 4 75 Av
Eugenio Velez# lf 27 .266 .307 .386 133 448 57 119 23 8 5 45 24 73 39 16 83 Vg
Dan Ortmeier# lf 28 .238 .286 .368 101 345 37 82 16 1 9 39 21 72 10 4 70 Av Fr
Ben Copeland* rf 25 .239 .300 .338 118 461 58 110 21 2 7 43 39 67 22 7 67 Vg Vg
Clay Timpner* cf 26 .255 .296 .335 121 451 51 115 15 3 5 40 25 65 18 6 65 Av Av
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CENTERFIELDERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Randy Winn# rf 35 .287 .345 .413 136 523 69 150 32 2 10 60 45 73 14 3 98 Av
Aaron Rowand cf 31 .278 .346 .420 143 528 68 147 34 1 13 65 39 105 5 4 100 Av
AVERAGE
Fred Lewis* lf 28 .267 .342 .416 131 450 75 120 21 8 10 54 50 108 17 6 98 Fr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAIR
Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 12 2 83 Pr
John Bowker* 1b 25 .258 .306 .421 139 484 54 125 22 3 17 64 29 95 3 4 88 Pr
POOR
Dave Roberts* lf 37 .247 .330 .333 67 198 29 49 8 3 1 17 25 35 11 4 75 Fr
Eugenio Velez# lf 27 .266 .307 .386 133 448 57 119 23 8 5 45 24 73 39 16 83 Av
Dan Ortmeier# lf 28 .238 .286 .368 101 345 37 82 16 1 9 39 21 72 10 4 70 Fr
Ben Copeland* rf 25 .239 .300 .338 118 461 58 110 21 2 7 43 39 67 22 7 67 Fr
Clay Timpner* cf 26 .255 .296 .335 121 451 51 115 15 3 5 40 25 65 18 6 65 Av
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STARTERS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
Tim Lincecum 25 3.00 14 6 32 31 204.0 169 68 12 82 222
Matt Cain 24 3.62 13 10 34 34 219.0 201 88 16 86 183
MIDDLE THIRD
Jonathan Sanchez* 26 4.28 6 6 28 18 103.0 97 49 9 53 98
Tim Alderson 20 4.34 8 10 27 27 145.0 149 70 17 46 104
Barry Zito* 31 4.37 10 12 29 29 173.0 167 84 16 85 129
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Clayton Tanner* 21 4.64 8 12 27 25 130.0 147 67 10 46 51
Noah Lowry* 28 4.73 6 9 20 20 116.0 127 61 12 53 60
BOTTOM THIRD
Matt Palmer 30 5.15 6 11 27 24 138.0 157 79 16 57 78
Pat Misch* 27 5.24 4 8 34 17 127.0 147 74 20 37 77
Ben Snyder* 23 5.51 7 13 29 26 147.0 173 90 23 52 74
Steve Hammond* 27 5.63 6 12 25 24 136.0 161 85 20 46 67
Nick Pereira 26 5.64 5 10 22 22 118.0 137 74 16 60 66
Henry Sosa 23 5.86 3 8 20 18 83.0 96 54 13 39 46
Victor Santos 32 6.34 2 7 20 17 88.0 111 62 17 40 53
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RELIEVERS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
MIDDLE THIRD
Jeremy Affeldt* 30 3.44 2 2 71 0 68.0 63 26 5 25 61
Osiris Matos 24 3.76 3 2 50 0 67.0 66 28 5 24 45
Brian Wilson 27 3.77 4 3 61 0 62.0 57 26 3 34 54
Keiichi Yabu 40 3.86 3 3 48 0 63.0 60 27 4 27 48
Sergio Romo 26 4.02 4 4 51 0 65.0 63 29 9 19 51
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tyler Walker 33 4.50 4 4 48 0 44.0 44 22 5 17 36
BOTTOM THIRD
Vinnie Chulk 30 4.57 3 4 58 1 63.0 64 32 8 25 50
Alexander Hinshaw* 26 4.70 1 2 47 0 44.0 40 23 6 33 44
Ryan Sadowski 26 4.71 5 6 40 8 86.0 93 45 8 37 51
Julio Mateo 31 4.72 3 5 37 3 61.0 70 32 7 13 31
Jack Taschner* 31 4.75 3 4 65 0 55.0 57 29 6 25 49
Eugene Espineli* 26 4.81 4 7 36 11 101.0 118 54 10 29 47
Kevin Correia 28 5.07 3 5 35 12 94.0 105 53 12 40 60
Bill Sadler 27 4.94 1 2 42 0 51.0 47 28 7 39 48
Kelvin Pichardo 23 5.29 3 5 48 0 63.0 66 37 8 38 42
Erick Threets* 27 5.29 2 5 47 3 68.0 71 40 7 46 38
Merkin Valdez 27 5.33 2 3 29 6 54.0 58 32 7 30 37
Kevin Gryboski 35 6.26 2 5 40 0 46.0 56 32 7 23 21
* - Throws Left
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Pablo Sandoval
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .284 .312 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 2 2 98
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ivan Rodriguez (obviously not D), Benito Santiago
Offense %
STAR 26
AVG 73
REP LV 99
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 0 >.375 0 >5 8 >150 35
>120 8 >.350 9
>100 42 >.325 39 2B %
>80 83 >.300 72 >45 0
>60 99 >30 65
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 1 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 3 >.500 11 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 23 >.450 44 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 60 >.400 83 >20 20 >10 0
>.250 87 >.350 98 >10 90
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Aaron Rowand
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .278 .346 .420 143 528 68 147 34 1 13 65 39 105 17 5 100
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Don Demeter, Curt Flood
Offense %
STAR 26
AVG 69
REP LV 99
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 1 >10 0 >200 0
>140 2 >.375 14 >5 7 >150 21
>120 15 >.350 47
>100 53 >.325 83 2B %
>80 93 >.300 98 >45 2
>60 100 >30 70
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 2 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 10 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 14 >.450 28 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 47 >.400 70 >20 16 >10 16
>.250 85 >.350 98 >10 81
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Tim Lincecum
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.00 14 6 32 31 204 169 68 12 82 222 145
Top Near-Age Comps: Steve Busby, Bert Blyleven
ERA %
Top 1/3 87
Mid 1/3 9
Bot 1/3 5
ERA+ % BB %
>150 46 <34 0
>140 57 <45 2
>130 65 <57 9
>120 75 <68 30
>110 84 <79 48
>100 91 <91 68
>90 95
>80 98 HR %
>70 99 <11 38
<23 91
K % <34 98
>204 68 <45 100
>181 89
>159 95
>136 99
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Matt Cain
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection
3.62 13 10 34 34 219 201 88 16 86 183 120
ERA %
Top 1/3 72
Mid 1/3 21
Bot 1/3 6
ERA+ % BB %
>150 23 <37 1
>140 32 <49 4
>130 42 <61 12
>120 55 <73 36
>110 68 <85 56
>100 82 <97 75
>90 92
>80 98 HR %
>70 100 <12 28
<24 81
K % <37 97
>219 13 <49 100
>195 28
>170 59
>146 88
Top Near-Age Comps: Greg Maddux, Wes Ferrell
---------------------------------------------
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
OPS+ >140
Phelps 3
Schierholtz 2
Bowker 1
OBP >.400
Lewis 2
Roberts 2
Rowand 1
SLG >.550
Bowker 4
Harper 4
Phelps 3
BA >.325
Schierholtz 11
Sandoval 3
Molina 3
2B >45
Rowand 2
3B >10
Lewis 19
Velez 15
HR >30
Bowker 6
SB >50
Burriss 20
Velez 13
Timpner 2
SUB-REPLACEMENT
Bocock 95
Copeland 80
Ortmeier 68
ERA+ >140
Lincecum 57
Affeldt 33
Cain 32
K/9 >9
Lincecum 68
Hinshaw 43
Sadler 32
BB/9 <1.5
Mateo 15
Espineli 9
Romo 8
HR/9 <0.5
Wilson 50
Lincecum 38
Cain 28
SUB-REPLACEMENT
Gryboski 97
Valdez 88
Santos 86
All figures in % based on projection playing time.
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
ZiPS 2009 Archive
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Braves
Blue Jays
A's
Astros
Angels
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 22, 2008 at 12:53 PM | 29 comment(s)
Related News: San Francisco, ZIPS
Related News: San Francisco, ZIPS
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2008 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Reader Comments and Retorts
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
This team is still pretty darn bad and when Lincecum's arm blows out because of all the abuse they put on it for no good reason it will only get worse. There are only a few franchises that are in worse shape than the Giants and I don't think any with their level of payroll are in that bad of shape.
Seattle! The Giants have some hope. Good arms, a rapidly improving farm system and an ownership that, for better or worse, is not afraid to spend money. I think they compete by 2010 and could be a surprise in 2009.
Houston's a better team but with a much, much worse farm system.
I'm more confident of a projection based off of one California League season than one Sally League season. Alderson was really close to the line. Villalona was Sally too, of course, but I'd rather project a low-level hitter than a pitcher of the same level. If Bumgarner repeats his season, he's going to have an awesome projection.
Thanks have to go to Lincecum for coming through - I was a little worried about projecting a 24-year-old, no matter how awesome, to go 10-5, 3.28 in his second season.
Anyways some nice projections of the young guys (Alderson/Sandoval) surprised no projection though of Kevin CORREIA/Tyler WALKER nor FA pick up Justin MILLER...actually with these numbers if they do pick up FURCAL & CC they would certainly be back in the division race & still developing some useful pieces too
Projected Walker/Correia but I didn't add them to the roster (I use DMB for the ease of getting preformatted text reports).
Sorry, a little more error-prone than usual.
Well, we demand a lot out of our free services.
Why drop a pseudoludlum like "The Shierholtz Conundrum"
Why drop a pseudoludlum like "The Shierholtz Conundrum"
What, you don't like comets?
Only his walks were high -- and even there,they were well down from his high walk rate in his freshman and sophomore years of college. Tim said it all came together in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2005, and indeed his control has been improving ever since.
If he continues to improve his control, particularly on his first pitches, he can continue to improve from here.
I expected Tim to come in around 3.25 in his rookie year. Had his catchers had better knowledge of his stuff and had he had more pitching luck, he might have come pretty darn close.
An example of Tim's not being handled optimally as a rookie came in his very first major league venture into the ninth inning, which came on August 21, 2007. For the first seven innings, Tim's control of his fastball was as good as I have ever seen it. By putting the heater right where he wanted much of the time, he was getting lots of easy ground balls.
In the eighth, he began to get his fastball up, walking his first batter of the night, getting into a bit of trouble and experiencing his first inning with much pitch count. With a couple of men on and Daryle Ward pinch hitting, Bengie Molina finally called back-to-back change ups, which resulted in strikes two and three, getting Tim out of the inning.
Still, it was obvious Tim wasn't the same pitcher in the eighth, that he was starting to get his fastball up.
So what did Bengie call for in the ninth? Five straight fastballs, four of them up, three of them becoming hits to increase the Cubs' total to five on the night. Tim was out of the game, and the Giants wound up yielding five runs in the inning -- and losing what had through eight innings been their best-pitched game of the season.
Molina did a better job of calling pitches for Lincecum in 2008, contributing to his success rather than hindering it. As good as Tim was in 2008, with continued improvement in his control, he can still improve. He can strike a batter out with any of four pitches. All he has to do is get those pitches close to where he wants them.
I did project Bonds and considered putting him in here (251/444/492). But to be honest, the Giants don't have any really good hitters (for 2009 at least, I expect some of those guys to change that next decade!) and Bonds there would stick out like a sore thumb, even after a year off. Hell, a 65-year-old Bonds would probably be one of the best offensive players on the team.
However the Bonds Era in San Francisco ended, it has ended and Bonds isn't coming back to San Francisco, so I wanted to be more forward-looking with a projection.
The OF defense is decent, although Rowand was bad last year. The IF defense, other than 1B (since they have a variety of athletic "position players" who can't hit play there) and Vizquel was generally awful. But they made up for it with... oh, - well even Durham's gone now.
Not if the defense doesn't get better.
-- MWE
Hey Rog, I was at that game too, the only time I have seen Lincecum pitch live. I was traveling on business and had bought the ticket online the week before calculating who would pitch. Then the week before there was a makeup game and I thought "oh, s***, now I'll have paid to watch a Zito game (but to be honest Zito did well the next day)".
I do remember as well that the stadium gun had him constantly at 96 all game, but there was that uncertainty after 8 innings at 1-0 whether they would go to the pen, and that there was a big cheer when he came out of the dugout in the top of the 9th. It might have been as much his excitement as loss of command that he was throwing high in the top of the 9th and didn't get anyone out.
The side story of that game was that Jason Marquis had given up a manufactured run in the 1st and shut the Giants down, eventually with some bullpen help, and had Lincecum gotten the shutout I probably would have still had a wish that I could have seen the Cubs throw a no-hitter and lost, or that the two Cub hits through 8 had not happened and gotten to see the 2nd double-no-hitter in MLB history.
Giant hits that day: Winn 2-out infield single (3rd inning), Pedro Feliz 2-out double (4th), Vizquel 1-out groundball triple down the RF line. Don't remember the Cubs making any great plays, so there was maybe 1-5% chance that if that game happened again in another DMB dimension that Marquis & Co get the no-no.
Cub hits thru 8: De Rosa 2-out infield single (2nd); Jason Kendall no-out single (6th). Thanks, Retrosheet.
Again, maybe .01% in the twilight zone that Lincecum starts the top of the 9th of a game with no hits at all. Probably walks the first 2 batters on 99 mph high heaters.
For example, Lincecum had some growing pains at the start of his career that he had to get out of his way. After that he compiled over 15 starts a 2.96 ERA in 94.1 IP with 96 K's, 1.24 WHIP. That's not far from the 2.62 ERA he ended up with, and was far closer than any prediction I saw for him for 2008. And even then, you could see his performance lag at the end too, probably due to tiredness. Taking out those games would yield a 2.64 ERA.
Lowry is not being counted on to pitch in 2008. The Giants are reportedly checking with some starting pitchers, like Randy Johnson and Brad Penny, and Sabean publicly said that the Giants view getting anything from Lowry as extra. Not sure what the team would do if Lowry happens to be ready to pitch come starting day, I suppose they would put him in long relief and maybe send down Yabu, who is their usual guy doing that.
Dan, I'm curious, do you do any post-season mortem to check your prediction system's accuracy? In the past, I've found your system's predictions to be - and this has been my initial impression upon first seeing them - too pessimistic relative to my thoughts on the Giants future performance, though I've never gone back and see whether your system was right or me. However, you must be close though, somebody ran DMB on your 2008 data and the Giants had 75 wins in that, the difference of which could be accounted for by the Giants trading away Durham mid-season and using lesser replacements. It is certainly closer to what really happened than what most Giants fans were predicting for the Giants in 2008 (my prediction was barely right, that they would be closer to .500 than they would to losing 100 games, which most fans feared). Is there a good thread somewhere, or FAQ, where I can read up on your system and how it works? Thanks.
Question on Sanchez: why is he rated so low on IP? Or rather, why is he predicted to relieve a lot of games. The Giants clearly will not be swinging him back and forth in that regard, he's a starter now. Any way to jimmy your system to force such expected usage? In that same vein, Lincecum has already been announced as the opening day starter and he won't be doing a funky "relief" start in 2009, so he's probably starting 33-34 games then, like Cain.
It is a challenge that Sabean has basically met for the past few years. He has not traded away anyone who could be a key player for the Giants and the free agents he has gotten has not entirely blocked any of our prospects, who until Sandoval, did not really deliver the type of knock-out great minor league performance that says you should give him a chance now. His most important prospects have been kept and they are now on the major league roster, and more to come in the low minors.
Well, several people usually check the numbers every year (while I do it internally, I'm uncomfortable crunching the results publicly due to an obvious conflict of interest).
There's no indication that I'm too negative as a rule - if you look at the full-timers and see where the center is, I have no tendency to hit low. Last year, for instance, if you look at the players that got 250 PA, I projected the group to have an OPS of .783 compared to .777 actual. For pitchers with 50 IP, I projected the group to have an ERA of 4.33 compared to actual of 4.27. Whatever the faults of ZiPS, I'm very happy with where the "center of gravity" is every year, so-to-speak.
Running DMB seasons on data is, of course, fraught with problems because rosters are constantly changing. As such, I don't consider ZiPS to have any "view" on the team-level for a season.
ZiPS only predicts future playing time to the extent that the past is a good predictor of playing time. I don't butt in and change a player's role unless there's some drastic change that I believe will stick, like Brandon Morrow going from 100% relief to 100% starting, as expected. Sanchez didn't pitch well enough that I want to hang my hat on him still being in the rotation full-time when April rolls around, after a winter of unknown moves, which the Giants should be relatively involved in.
FYI, the Giants have been saying all winter that Sanchez was the fifth starter with Lowry competing for his spot, and is clearly the incumbent now, Sabean said that just the other day and, frankly, I don't see how Lowry can beat out Sanchez, he hasn't pitched in over a year now, and hasn't been that great when he was pitching before.
The reason Sanchez didn't pitch well enough was because he hit the wall mid-season, his pre-ASG ERA was under 4.00, after ASG was way above, as he didn't condition himself well enough to last a whole season. When he was going good, he was very dominating in his starts, it wasn't just inconsistency from start to start, there was a clear demarcation. He reportedly is much stronger now and been working all off-season to condition to pitch more innings, which he got out of because he was relieving the previous two seasons. Barring any collapse or injury on his part, Sanchez should be the 5th starter. So should I just adjust his stats to the number of innings I think he will put in?
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main