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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, October 26, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals
While the Cardinals disappointed after the All-Star Break, playing only .500 ball and dropping from a strong 2nd place contender in the NL Central to a very slight 4th behind the Astros, I don't think I'd characterize the season as a failure. The expectations weren't that high and they got several players on the cheap (Ryan Ludwick and Kyle Lohse obviously, but Todd Wellemeyer also was a contributor) that turned out to be keepers. Of course, Lohse isn't cheap any more...A lot depends on Chris Carpenter. If resting this offseason is really enough to cure the nerve damage in his shoulder, the Cards, all caveats about future offseason moves noted, should be one of the top wild card contenders with the Brewers having great challenges at the top of the rotation and the Astros having serious depth issues and not a lot of flexibility. I don't expect them to be in the Sabathia hunt, but the team's not deep enough to lose Looper and not replace him with another mid-rotation guy. Sheets and Burnett might be out of the question, as I believe the losers in the Sabathia bidding are likely to throw money at the best starters left, but there are a couple of guys who might fly under the radar.
The middle infield is still a concern - Izturis came back from his injuries a middle-of-the-pack defensive player rather than an fantastic one. I'm still shocked that Felipe Lopez essentially turned around his whole season after joining the Cardinals. Lopez is a free agent, as is Izturis. Data point #350 on Lenny Harris, Worst Hitting Coach Ever?
If the Cards decide to Win Now in 2009, enough minor league players had good seasons that they might be able to revisit acquiring Brian Roberts and be able to put together a convincing package that doesn't include Rasmus. Would the last-place Orioles really turn down a Perez-Jay-Todd type of package now? Perhaps, but there are more things to tempt another team than there were a year ago, even with Adam Ottavino having a really disappointing season. This is one of the more interesting teams to watch this offseason.
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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS CThr
AVERAGE
Steve Hill 1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 0 0 Fr
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BELOW-AVERAGE
Bryan Anderson* c 22 .277 .324 .359 103 379 37 105 14 1 5 40 27 65 1 0 Av
Yadier Molina c 26 .268 .325 .367 122 414 43 111 20 0 7 45 33 39 1 2 Vg
POOR
Mark L. Johnson* c 33 .247 .323 .308 73 227 17 56 8 0 2 20 25 28 1 1 Vg
Jason LaRue c 35 .190 .281 .302 66 179 16 34 8 0 4 18 18 44 1 0 Av
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FIRST BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
EXCELLENT
Albert Pujols 1b 29 .328 .433 .606 151 545 103 179 38 1 37 120 97 57 5 3 Ex
AVERAGE
Troy Glaus 3b 32 .258 .360 .451 132 466 65 120 25 1 21 75 72 98 1 1 Av
Chris Duncan* lf 28 .262 .348 .453 113 344 48 90 16 1 16 55 45 94 2 1 Fr
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Josh Phelps 1b 31 .271 .338 .453 115 362 41 98 19 1 15 55 31 81 2 1 Fr
Brett Wallace 3b 22 .275 .333 .424 126 502 71 138 27 0 16 69 29 84 2 1 Av
Allen Craig 3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 4 2 Av
FAIR
Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Av
POOR
Steve Hill 1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 0 0 Fr
Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Av
Adam Kennedy* 2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 7 3 Av
Mark L. Johnson* c 33 .247 .323 .308 73 227 17 56 8 0 2 20 25 28 1 1 Av
Jason LaRue c 35 .190 .281 .302 66 179 16 34 8 0 4 18 18 44 1 0 Fr
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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
AVERAGE
D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 3 1 Fr
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Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Av
BELOW-AVERAGE
Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Pr
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 4 4 Av
POOR
Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1 Av
Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Fr
Adam Kennedy* 2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 7 3 Av
Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av
Cesar Izturis# ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 9 4 Av
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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Troy Glaus 3b 32 .258 .360 .451 132 466 65 120 25 1 21 75 72 98 1 1 Av
AVERAGE
Brett Wallace 3b 22 .275 .333 .424 126 502 71 138 27 0 16 69 29 84 2 1 Fr
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Allen Craig 3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 4 2 Fr
David Freese 3b 26 .265 .321 .428 137 528 73 140 28 2 18 75 39 99 5 2 Av
D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 3 1 Av
FAIR
Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Av
Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Fr
POOR
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 4 4 Av
Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1 Av
Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Av
Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av
Tyler Greene ss 25 .230 .275 .361 111 421 54 97 18 2 11 48 21 97 15 4 Av
Cesar Izturis# ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 9 4 Av
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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
AVERAGE
D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 3 1 Fr
Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Pr
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Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 4 4 Fr
FAIR
Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1 Pr
Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Fr
Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av
POOR
Tyler Greene ss 25 .230 .275 .361 111 421 54 97 18 2 11 48 21 97 15 4 Av
Cesar Izturis# ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 9 4 Av
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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS LF RF
EXCELLENT
Ryan Ludwick rf 30 .274 .347 .522 137 456 70 125 31 2 26 85 46 123 3 3 Av Av
AVERAGE
Chris Duncan* lf 28 .262 .348 .453 113 344 48 90 16 1 16 55 45 94 2 1 Fr Fr
Josh Phelps 1b 31 .271 .338 .453 115 362 41 98 19 1 15 55 31 81 2 1 Fr Fr
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Rick Ankiel* cf 29 .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 3 2 Av Av
Allen Craig 3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 4 2 Av
FAIR
Skip Schumaker* cf 29 .292 .344 .388 131 428 58 125 19 2 6 48 33 49 6 2 Vg Av
Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Av Av
Brian Barton rf 27 .262 .343 .382 104 325 39 85 14 2 7 38 29 75 13 6 Vg Vg
Joe Mather rf 26 .243 .308 .425 125 428 53 104 22 1 18 63 34 79 7 1 Vg
POOR
Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Fr
Steve Hill 1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 0 0 Fr
Juan Encarnacion rf 33 .266 .309 .403 80 293 36 78 14 1 8 37 17 45 2 2 Av Av
Nick Stavinoha rf 27 .276 .307 .382 119 421 43 116 16 1 9 49 18 62 3 1 Av Fr
Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1 Av
Jon Jay* cf 24 .265 .315 .375 105 419 48 111 17 1 9 48 27 55 9 7 Vg Vg
Adam Kennedy* 2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 7 3 Av
Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av Av
Daryl Jones* lf 22 .235 .299 .351 124 447 56 105 15 2 11 51 34 85 19 11 Vg Vg
Cody Haerther* lf 25 .243 .300 .333 93 288 26 70 17 0 3 28 22 53 1 2 Fr Fr
Shane Robinson lf 24 .257 .292 .346 89 338 36 87 13 1 5 34 16 43 13 8 Vg Vg
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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RNG
VERY GOOD
Rick Ankiel* cf 29 .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 3 2 Fr
AVERAGE
Skip Schumaker* cf 29 .292 .344 .388 131 428 58 125 19 2 6 48 33 49 6 2 Fr
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Brian Barton rf 27 .262 .343 .382 104 325 39 85 14 2 7 38 29 75 13 6 Pr
Joe Mather rf 26 .243 .308 .425 125 428 53 104 22 1 18 63 34 79 7 1 Fr
Colby Rasmus* cf 22 .237 .314 .401 114 439 60 104 21 0 17 61 45 85 15 3 Vg
FAIR
Jon Jay* cf 24 .265 .315 .375 105 419 48 111 17 1 9 48 27 55 9 7 Vg
POOR
Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Fr
Daryl Jones* lf 22 .235 .299 .351 124 447 56 105 15 2 11 51 34 85 19 11 Av
Shane Robinson lf 24 .257 .292 .346 89 338 36 87 13 1 5 34 16 43 13 8 Av
* - Hits Left
# - Switch-Hitter
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
Chris Carpenter 34 3.48 4 3 11 11 62.0 59 24 6 15 48
Adam Wainwright 27 3.71 11 8 26 26 165.0 167 68 12 49 110
MIDDLE THIRD
Todd Wellemeyer 30 4.31 8 9 24 24 144.0 142 69 18 61 105
Kyle Lohse 30 4.37 9 10 33 29 177.0 192 86 18 48 113
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Braden Looper 34 4.53 10 12 28 28 167.0 182 84 22 43 90
Jesse Todd 23 4.75 5 6 24 18 110.0 117 58 15 38 58
BOTTOM THIRD
Jaime Garcia* 22 4.89 7 9 26 20 116.0 121 63 14 56 70
P.J. Walters 24 4.90 8 10 31 28 158.0 170 86 20 64 102
Mitchell Boggs 25 5.31 6 10 26 25 144.0 163 85 17 65 74
Tyler Herron 22 5.36 6 9 28 23 131.0 152 78 20 44 60
Blake Hawksworth 26 5.40 6 9 23 22 125.0 145 75 16 48 72
Joel Pineiro 30 5.45 4 6 19 16 99.0 118 60 14 30 51
Clayton Mortensen 24 5.61 4 8 21 20 101.0 117 63 15 49 52
Mike Parisi 26 5.90 5 11 25 21 122.0 150 80 16 56 62
Adam Ottavino 23 5.93 5 10 27 27 129.0 151 85 21 66 67
Mark Mulder* 31 7.16 2 5 11 10 49.0 65 39 10 21 22
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
TOP THIRD
Russ Springer 40 2.42 4 1 67 0 52.0 41 14 3 17 51
MIDDLE THIRD
Kyle McClellan 25 3.75 5 4 59 0 72.0 72 30 6 21 51
Jason Motte 27 3.88 4 3 58 0 65.0 63 28 6 23 60
Jason Isringhausen 36 3.91 4 3 52 0 53.0 48 23 5 26 45
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Josh Kinney 30 3.98 2 2 42 0 52.0 49 23 5 23 45
Ryan Franklin 36 4.09 5 5 69 0 77.0 81 35 9 24 47
Ron Villone* 39 4.15 1 1 59 0 52.0 48 24 4 26 43
BOTTOM THIRD
Chris Perez 23 4.35 3 3 63 0 60.0 53 29 7 38 62
Randy Flores* 33 4.68 1 1 65 0 50.0 56 26 4 22 40
Mark Worrell 26 4.77 4 4 58 0 66.0 67 35 9 33 54
Ron Flores* 29 4.79 4 6 56 0 62.0 65 33 6 34 42
Brad Thompson 27 4.79 3 3 28 6 62.0 72 33 7 15 29
Tyler Johnson* 28 4.86 1 2 49 0 37.0 37 20 5 19 30
Kelvin Jimenez 28 5.05 3 4 55 0 73.0 82 41 7 26 40
John Wasdin 36 5.31 3 6 26 8 78.0 90 46 14 21 51
Matthew Scherer 26 5.40 3 5 53 0 70.0 79 42 12 25 44
Cliff Politte 35 7.31 0 2 14 0 16.0 20 13 4 7 10
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Rick Ankiel
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .293 .359 .588 139 502 90 147 25 3 39 113 49 97 4 2 144
Mean .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 3 2 111
Pessimistic (15%) .233 .290 .423 108 390 43 91 15 1 19 60 29 95 2 1 85
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Roy Tucker, Willie Kirkland, Roger Repoz
Player Spotlight - Ryan Ludwick
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .304 .384 .590 153 510 92 155 38 3 34 108 60 120 4 4 152
Mean .274 .347 .522 137 456 70 125 31 2 26 85 46 123 3 3 125
Pessimistic (15%) .244 .310 .428 117 390 42 95 22 1 16 57 33 119 2 3 92
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jesse Barfield, Larry Parrish
Player Spotlight - Kyle Lohse
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.46 13 8 36 31 203 198 78 15 44 138 124
Mean 4.37 9 10 33 29 177 192 86 18 48 113 98
Pessimistic (15%) 5.37 6 10 27 24 139 167 83 17 47 77 80
Top Near-Age Comps: Scott Erickson, John Burkett
Player Spotlight - Adam Wainwright
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 2.89 15 6 29 29 187 172 60 9 48 134 148
Mean 3.71 11 8 26 26 165 167 68 12 49 110 115
Pessimistic (15%) 4.67 7 9 22 22 129 143 67 13 50 85 91
Top Near-Age Comps: Dock Ellis, Jeff Weaver
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
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The lineup looks ok, but Mo really needs to fix that bullpen.
It's same to assume that the DEA's been informed, right?
Thanks for everything, except maybe suspending kevin right before the Red Sox lost.
Nope, just a pathetic 194!
LOL, another minor league starter who projects as well as Piñeiro. Of course these are the same people that gave us "Braden Looper, Average-ish Starter", so who knows?
i'm encouraged by the zips projection, but i'm wondering if there's anything more that can be said about him.
For the guys over on Viva El Birdos (I know I've posted there before but for some reason, SBNation won't let me post there until 2 days has passed), don't forget that they're ranked by offense. Jimenez isn't really all that impressive a player due to injuries and defense. That 347/392 isn't all that suprising as it's an OPS+ of 93 (his career in the majors of about 2500 PA is an OPS+ of 94)
a) about an 83 win team
b) 12-15th biggest market
c) cash-starved
d) poor group of prospects below Rasmus
e) big holes at ss,2b,sp,rp
If so wouldn't it be wise to consider trading Pujols
Imagine the package you could get for him?
Teams still need to sell tickets. Dumping Pujols would likely damage ticket sales greatly.
For trading the reigning NL MVP and easily the best player in the league?
The Cardinals wouldn't fill an AA stadium if that happened.
No. It isn't 2005.
Look at the list above for the SP's. One guy who's very good (but a large health risk), another who's good, and two more who look to be average or so. That's a decent rotation, maybe a little better. The bullpen could use Springer again and they need a lefty better than one of the Flores brothers, but they do have a couple of guys to fill the holes. The AAA rotation will be composed entirely of prospects, and while admittedly only Todd looks like he has much chance of being particularly good, there is some depth for the various pitching needs.
I'M NOT SURE ANYONE (SAVE THE MOST ABSURDLY OPTIMISTIC CARDINAL FAN) REALLY HAD HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR STL UNTIL THEY WERE STILL COMPETITIVE IN JUNE...
or maybe the ones that scouted the players with a combination of their eyes and stats.
I love the zips work, but I'll take the over on Molina easily. I'll even take the over on Aaron Miles(if TLR is managing him) but not so much that I think the prediction is too off base. The rest seem to be pretty close at first glance (minus the rookies as I think the Anderson projection and even the Craig seem a tad more optimistic than the Cardinals think, if we could get other teams to see these guys like this, they could make good trade bait)
a) about an 83 win team
b) 12-15th biggest market
c) cash-starved
d) poor group of prospects below Rasmus
e) big holes at ss,2b,sp,rp
If so wouldn't it be wise to consider trading Pujols
Imagine the package you could get for him?
a. true, with potential to be better due to having the best manager in baseball. A legitimate Wild card contender, or a division winner if injuries happen to the Cubs or a breakout year from the team.
b. I thought their market size was even smaller than that, close to 20th than 12th.
c. nope, not in the least.
d. not really, they may not have elite prospects, but as this shows they have a lot of guys who project to be average players next season. A team consisting of all average players is 81 wins(roughly) add Pujols and that makes it an 88 win team, add Wainwright and you pass 90 wins. (of course not everyone of their players is average but the point is they have enough talent to field an average team and Pujols) add in that the ownership group has said they plan on spending roughly 30 mil this offseason(they have more to spend in their budget but the rest is going to arbitration raises)
e. Big holes? not really the difference between a replacement and an average shortstop and second base is fillable, sp has Wainwright, Lohse, and a cast of other characters by the time the season rolls around they should have 6 starting pitchers for five jobs, their bullpen woes is always easily fixable. Motte has a good chance of beating those projections. Kinney is back next season, they are still short a legitimate lefty specialist, but beyond that they have enough talent to fill out the pen and make it a top ten bullpen.
SS is a huge hole and will likely remain one given the lack of reasonable FA options. Kennedy/Miles/Lopez can fake their way through 2B; Kennedy remains a great defensive player, and the other two have complementary offensive abilities.
Next year's playoff hopes probably hinge on Carpenter being healthy, but even without him the Cards could easily squeeze into the playoffs if Pujols and Ludwick are healthy. The Cards' recipe for success is much like the Giants' a few years ago: just add Pujols to an otherwise average-ish team and coast in the playoffs. The Cards are fortunate in that they have a collection of valuable supporting players as well as a ton of useful talent in the pipeline in case of injury. There's not a team in baseball that could better handle an injury to a starting OF, middle infielder, or 3B. 1B is another question, though not for lack of depth.
And FWIW, Barton will destroy that projection if he gets more than 200 PAs.
AS A BAYESIAN, I FAIL TO SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO...
What makes LaRussa statistically better than Cox, Torre or Pinella? What about some of the less experienced guys such as Charlie Manuel (.543 W %), Scioscia (.551 W %), or Gardenhire (.549 W %)?
I'm not saying LaRussa is or is not the best in the game...there's no way of knowing. But stating blankly that he is certainly isn't going to lead credence to your remaining bullet points.
I bet you could get a shiny Julio Lugo for free!
I'll pimp out a future book by Chris Jaffe that supports that opinion, but I'll agree that Cox should be included in the discussion. (not a Torre fan, sorry but his claim to fame is basically doing nothing for a tremendously talented team, it's a great philosophy, but only works when you have the right team)
It's not just win percentage though, I even think that Guillen is a good manager and is on the short list of best managers in baseball. Almost every thing TLR does is something that is defensible and I agree with, there are exceptions, most of them have to do with keeping in a starting pitcher too long or something to that effect.
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