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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
2009 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers
As usual, the Rangers problems start with the pitching, followed by a generally mediocre, though not terrible, defense that makes the pitching look even worse than it already is.It has to hurt quite a lot to see Volquez, Young, and Danks all finding success elsewhere, but the Rangers did get Josh Hamilton in the exchange and the others have to be considered water under the bridge. The team has two excellent starting prospects in Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland that should be in the majors very shortly and one has to hope that Jon Daniels, even if he pulled off some truly terrible trades, will hang onto those two as if his life depended on it.
The offense won't be as good as last year, with 3 players having MVP-type seasons, but it will still be solid, which is why the Rangers won't be contending for the division, unless something absolutely unforseen happens. After all, the team has a 115 OPS+ and scored 901 runs and didn't break 900 and the team didn't exactly sign Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia in the offseason. The Michael Young situation might be a happy distraction for a team when, yet again, they're losing 14-10 games instead of winning 10-9 ones.
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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ ARM
VERY GOOD
Maximiliano Ramirez c 24 .257 .333 .433 112 413 51 106 19 0 18 62 43 108 2 2 100 Fr
AVERAGE
Jarrod Saltalamacchia# c 24 .253 .330 .431 111 376 53 95 20 1 15 51 42 111 1 2 97 Fr
Taylor Teagarden c 25 .229 .314 .426 98 345 48 79 15 1 17 47 40 117 1 1 93 Av
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POOR
Kevin Richardson c 28 .219 .279 .358 81 274 29 60 9 1 9 30 19 84 1 1 68 Fr
Manuel Pina c 22 .214 .251 .271 93 332 24 71 13 0 2 25 14 43 0 0 37 Av
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FIRST BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
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Hank Blalock* 3b 28 .272 .335 .454 90 346 48 94 20 2 13 51 32 61 2 0 105 Fr
Chris Davis* 1b 23 .263 .309 .508 145 555 84 146 33 2 33 103 36 158 6 3 108 Fr
FAIR
Frankie Catalanotto* 1b 35 .274 .353 .410 85 266 35 73 20 2 4 29 26 29 1 1 100 Av
Maximiliano Ramirez c 24 .257 .333 .433 112 413 51 106 19 0 18 62 43 108 2 2 100 Fr
Jarrod Saltalamacchia# c 24 .253 .330 .431 111 376 53 95 20 1 15 51 42 111 1 2 97 Fr
POOR
Nate Gold 1b 29 .243 .306 .439 113 424 50 103 21 1 20 71 37 103 1 1 93 Av
Kevin Richardson c 28 .219 .279 .358 81 274 29 60 9 1 9 30 19 84 1 1 68 Fr
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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Ian Kinsler 2b 27 .283 .354 .470 127 498 93 141 32 2 19 68 51 75 19 2 115 Fr
POOR
Ryan Roberts 2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2 82 Av
German Duran 2b 24 .250 .294 .393 120 392 53 98 19 2 11 47 22 69 5 2 80 Av
Joaquin Arias ss 24 .261 .296 .350 107 429 52 112 15 4 5 37 19 58 20 4 69 Av
Jose Vallejo 2b 22 .229 .270 .294 127 528 51 121 17 1 5 45 27 104 37 4 48 Vg
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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Michael Young ss 32 .292 .347 .420 151 631 90 184 35 5 12 84 52 101 9 1 98 Av
Hank Blalock* 3b 28 .272 .335 .454 90 346 48 94 20 2 13 51 32 61 2 0 105 Fr
Chris Davis* 1b 23 .263 .309 .508 145 555 84 146 33 2 33 103 36 158 6 3 108 Fr
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POOR
Ryan Roberts 2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2 82 Fr
German Duran 2b 24 .250 .294 .393 120 392 53 98 19 2 11 47 22 69 5 2 80 Av
Travis Metcalf 3b 26 .219 .270 .355 119 406 49 89 20 1 11 47 28 104 3 3 63 Fr
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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Michael Young ss 32 .292 .347 .420 151 631 90 184 35 5 12 84 52 101 9 1 98 Fr
FAIR
Ryan Roberts 2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2 82 Fr
German Duran 2b 24 .250 .294 .393 120 392 53 98 19 2 11 47 22 69 5 2 80 Av
POOR
Joaquin Arias ss 24 .261 .296 .350 107 429 52 112 15 4 5 37 19 58 20 4 69 Av
Elvis Andrus ss 20 .242 .298 .313 124 505 74 122 20 2 4 54 37 91 42 18 62 Vg
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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF
EXCELLENT
Josh Hamilton* cf 28 .293 .366 .526 132 502 85 147 27 3 28 102 56 106 7 1 131 Av Av
VERY GOOD
Nelson Cruz rf 28 .282 .354 .531 134 471 78 133 22 1 31 92 50 122 14 6 128 Fr Fr
AVERAGE
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Marlon Byrd cf 31 .279 .352 .430 122 409 62 114 23 3 11 58 39 78 6 3 106 Vg Vg
FAIR
Frankie Catalanotto* 1b 35 .274 .353 .410 85 266 35 73 20 2 4 29 26 29 1 1 100 Fr
POOR
David Murphy* rf 27 .263 .319 .419 119 434 57 114 29 3 11 59 36 74 7 2 92 Vg Av
Ryan Roberts 2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2 82 Av Av
Brandon Boggs# lf 26 .217 .306 .374 116 382 46 83 21 3 11 44 48 109 9 4 77 Vg Vg
Greg Golson cf 23 .232 .264 .352 125 522 63 121 20 2 13 56 23 161 27 6 59 Av Av
Nathan Haynes* cf 29 .237 .282 .298 97 312 36 74 9 2 2 25 18 77 15 6 55 Av Av
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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Josh Hamilton* cf 28 .293 .366 .526 132 502 85 147 27 3 28 102 56 106 7 1 131 Fr
AVERAGE
Marlon Byrd cf 31 .279 .352 .430 122 409 62 114 23 3 11 58 39 78 6 3 106 Av
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FAIR
David Murphy* rf 27 .263 .319 .419 119 434 57 114 29 3 11 59 36 74 7 2 92 Fr
POOR
Brandon Boggs# lf 26 .217 .306 .374 116 382 46 83 21 3 11 44 48 109 9 4 77 Av
Greg Golson cf 23 .232 .264 .352 125 522 63 121 20 2 13 56 23 161 27 6 59 Av
Julio Borbon* cf 23 .254 .285 .321 124 548 59 139 22 0 5 39 20 78 48 19 60 Av
Nathan Haynes* cf 29 .237 .282 .298 97 312 36 74 9 2 2 25 18 77 15 6 55 Av
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
MIDDLE THIRD
Kevin Millwood 34 4.62 11 11 29 29 171.1 192 80 19 53 126 99
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Vicente Padilla 31 5.04 10 11 28 28 155.1 170 87 22 61 113 91
Jason Jennings 30 5.11 3 4 11 11 68.2 74 39 9 33 47 90
BOTTOM THIRD
Derek Holland* 22 5.19 7 5 22 21 104.0 107 60 10 39 60 88
Neftali Feliz 21 5.25 5 6 17 15 82.1 91 48 8 48 59 87
Kason Gabbard* 27 5.33 6 7 22 21 106.1 115 63 15 59 73 85
Scott Feldman 26 5.46 6 9 23 21 130.1 150 79 17 55 73 84
Guillermo Moscoso 25 5.50 3 5 17 13 70.1 78 43 15 20 53 83
Matt Harrison* 23 5.55 7 11 24 24 136.1 162 84 19 52 65 83
Thomas Diamond 26 5.93 4 8 20 20 91.0 99 60 15 60 75 76
Dustin Nippert 28 6.04 5 9 35 16 114.2 136 77 19 52 86 76
Doug Mathis 26 6.15 5 9 22 20 108.1 138 74 17 43 52 74
Luis Mendoza 25 6.20 6 12 30 24 119.0 156 82 15 43 54 74
Elizardo Ramirez 26 6.37 5 9 23 20 117.1 151 83 23 32 59 72
Eric Hurley 23 6.48 4 10 22 22 115.1 131 83 32 49 74 70
Tommy Hunter 22 6.59 7 16 28 28 158.1 206 116 34 40 74 69
Omar Poveda 21 6.75 4 8 20 20 98.2 115 74 25 51 59 68
John Bannister 25 6.75 4 9 26 18 104.0 130 78 19 63 58 67
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Frankie Francisco 29 3.44 3 2 55 0 55.0 44 21 5 26 65 133
MIDDLE THIRD
Joaquin Benoit 31 4.04 4 3 57 0 69.0 60 31 6 38 72 113
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C.J. Wilson* 28 4.45 2 2 56 0 60.2 56 30 8 31 58 103
BOTTOM THIRD
A.J. Murray* 27 4.98 2 3 23 7 56.0 64 31 5 26 38 92
Brandon McCarthy 25 5.00 2 2 17 5 45.0 47 25 7 17 32 92
Willie Eyre 30 5.06 2 2 27 0 42.2 48 24 5 16 28 92
Josh Rupe 26 5.26 2 2 31 2 63.1 71 37 7 30 35 87
Derrick Turnbow 31 5.36 3 5 52 0 47.0 39 28 4 50 56 85
Warner Madrigal 25 5.61 4 5 54 0 51.1 56 32 9 27 33 81
Jamey Wright 34 5.65 5 7 44 6 73.1 88 46 8 31 46 81
Brian Gordon 30 5.85 4 6 37 7 75.1 89 49 16 22 42 77
Joseph Torres* 26 6.15 1 3 45 0 41.0 40 28 4 46 32 75
Jose Diaz 29 6.41 2 5 35 5 59.0 62 42 11 50 42 71
Kazuo Fukumori 32 6.89 2 5 42 4 64.0 87 49 13 23 30 66
Casey Daigle 28 6.97 3 6 45 5 72.1 92 56 17 35 48 66
* - Throws Left
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Chris Davis
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .263 .309 .508 145 555 84 146 33 2 33 103 36 158 6 3 108
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ed Kranepool, Justin Thompson, Willie Montanez
ODDIBE
Offense %
Top Quintile 11
2nd Quintile 21
Mid Quintile 18
4th Quintile 25
Low Quintile 25
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
160+ 2 .400+ 0 10+ 0 200+ 0
140+ 8 .375+ 0 5+ 6 150+ 38
130+ 19 .350+ 4
120+ 29 .325+ 24 2B %
110+ 49 .300+ 63 45+ 4
100+ 66 30+ 69
90+ 82
80+ 92
60+ 97
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
.350+ 0 .550+ 18 50+ 5 70+ 0
.325+ 1 .500+ 49 40+ 20 50+ 0
.300+ 6 .450+ 87 30+ 61 30+ 0
.275+ 30 .400+ 100 20+ 96 10+ 12
.250+ 71 .350+ 100 10+ 100
(Based on Projected PA)
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Ian Kinsler
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .283 .354 .470 127 498 93 141 32 2 19 68 51 75 19 2 115
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Travis Jackson, Ryne Sandberg, Odell Hale
ODDIBE
Offense %
Top Quintile 67
2nd Quintile 17
Mid Quintile 10
4th Quintile 5
Low Quintile 1
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
160+ 1 .400+ 4 10+ 0 200+ 0
140+ 8 .375+ 21 5+ 10 150+ 25
130+ 22 .350+ 59
120+ 38 .325+ 90 2B %
110+ 64 .300+ 99 45+ 3
100+ 83 30+ 65
90+ 94
80+ 99
60+ 100
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
.350+ 0 .550+ 5 50+ 0 70+ 0
.325+ 5 .500+ 24 40+ 0 50+ 0
.300+ 26 .450+ 69 30+ 6 30+ 5
.275+ 65 .400+ 97 20+ 44 10+ 98
.250+ 93 .350+ 100 10+ 97
(Based on Projected PA)
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Vicente Padilla
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 5.04 10 11 28 28 155.1 170 87 22 61 113 91
Top Near-Age Comps:
ODDIBE
ERA %
Top 1/3 11
Mid 1/3 47
Bot 1/3 42
ERA+ % BB %
>150 0 >26 0
>140 1 >35 2
>130 2 >43 8
>120 5 >52 25
>110 11 >60 51
>100 27 >69 77
>90 52
>80 82 HR %
>70 98 >12 5
>17 25
K/9 % >22 58
>155 3 >28 86
>138 10
>121 30
>104 66
(Based on Projected IP)
---------------------------------------------
Player Spotlight - Kevin Millwood
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.62 11 11 29 29 171.1 192 88 19 53 126 99
Top Near-Age Comps: Rick Rhoden, John Burkett, Mike Garcia
ODDIBE
ERA %
Top 1/3 26
Mid 1/3 54
Bot 1/3 20
ERA+ % BB %
>150 2 >29 3
>140 3 >38 11
>130 7 >48 36
>120 13 >57 66
>110 26 >67 88
>100 49 >76 95
>90 76
>80 94 HR %
>70 99 >13 22
>19 60
K/9 % >25 87
>171 3 >30 95
>152 10
>133 32
>114 70
(Based on Projected IP)
---------------------------------------------
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
OPS+ >140
Hamilton 34
Cruz 30
Davis 8
OBP >.400
Hamilton 10
Byrd 4
Cruz 3
SLG >.550
Cruz 32
Hamilton 30
Davis 19
BA >.325
Hamilton 11
Young 7
Kinsler 5
2B >45
Young 9
Davis 4
Kinsler 3
3B >10
Arias 3
Hamilton 1
Byrd 1
HR >30
Davis 61
Cruz 51
Hamilton 37
SB >50
Borbon 42
Andrus 17
Vallejo 5
ERA+ >140
Francisco 42
Benoit 20
Wilson 17
K/9 >9
Francisco 82
Benoit 54
Wilson 31
BB/9 <1.5
Hunter 8
The Lizard 7
Gordon 7
HR/9 <0.7
Murray 46
Francisco 44
Benoit 40
All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
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Boy does that starting rotation look ugly behind Millwood. The Jays, even after losing Burnett to FA, McGowan and Marcum to the DL, can still probably beat those projections and that's discounting their only two reliable startes [Doc and Litsch].
Oh, and Dan, there is a small typo up top: , probably should read "didn't break 500."
Kinda surprised Botts hasn't gotten more of a shot? Not that he's great, but he seems like he could be a serviceable 4th OF bat off the bench for someone or maybe even a starter for an offense-starved team.
Very interested to see what Cruz can do thisy ear.
Botts, unlike Cruz, hasn't made the adjustments he needs to make to his swing, and he still fails to make contact consistently enough to be useful as a result. Plus he's really not an OF; he's a 1B/DH.
-- MWE
You have two different Millwood ERA projections...
Wright and Roberts are listed because, as far as I know, the Rangers are the most recent team.
I would appreciate that nasty e-mails sent to me should actually be general nastiness, not just poor reading comprehension!
For example, from two e-mails tonight.
"You are so stupid too many plyaers playing worse go root for the A's fat boy!"
This is an acceptable nasty e-mail.
"y dont u pay attention to team eric hurley had sugary today and will miss the seasson"
This is not an acceptable nasty e-mail.
the light bulb for cruz (imo) went off in '06 (zone control + shortening swing), though he certainly turned it up last year... scouts have always liked his raw power and athleticism for his size (generally has had positive reviews on d as well, though it hasn't shown up in the #s). incidentally, anyone could have had this guy - he slid through waivers last year (out of options).
Seriously. I *always* get a flood of negative e-mails from projection posts.
I expected a lot from the Rangers post - the team had a ridiculous number of hitters having their best professional seasons so the projections would naturally be generally worse across the board.
I wonder what ZiPS has to say about his wife.
Um dont you mean the Pirates ??
Anyways,what of the lost "DHer" of last year Jason Botts he is still a Ranger & will get more ABs than Nate Gold *wink wink*
When he signed was a 6.26 ERA/73 ERA+ guy & above is now a 5.36 ERA/85 ERA+........just a question of curiousity.Is it because you see him as suited to Arlington more than Milwaukee or is it simply a revised opinion ?
When he signed was a 6.26 ERA/73 ERA+ guy & above is now a 5.36 ERA/85 ERA+........just a question of curiousity.Is it because you see him as suited to Arlington more than Milwaukee or is it simply a revised opinion ?
That Taylor Teagarden projection is worse than I thought it would be. I think I may have wasted a pick in my DMB draft.
Also, that pitching is brutal. The AL West is going to be weak this year. I wouldn't be surprised if the M's are much closer to the top than people think right now.
English, please.
I see the guy's point--I "had sugary" just yesterday, and today, I feel like crap. Whole feckin' pint of Ben & Jerry's, I had...
What, he'll miss the season with cavities?
Jeez, English is my second language; it must be this guy's sixth language or something.
43 homes 125 ribbies overall???
I couldn't help but notice that his #1 BBREF comp was Adam Piatt...
he of the utterly mesmerizing (from an mle POV), 1999 of .345-39-135 in AA...
he of the utterly mesmerizing (from an mle POV), 1999 of .345-39-135 in AA...
Piatt had quite the wacky dropoff in minor league play too (MLEs):
1998 Modesto: 253/322/445
1999 Midland: 273/360/536
2000 Sacramento: 243/300/371
2001 Sacramento: 216/275/306
2002 Sacramento: 253/331/390
With the steroids (admitted) and the viral meningitis, I don't even want to hazard an explanation.
Ahh. Those were heady times in A's fandom.
The fanboy in me is outraged by the incompetence of Dan's system. The realist in me...man, this year is going to suck for the Rangers unless several players seriously outperform their projections...
Dan - just to get our hopes up so they can be dashed again, can you run a quickie projection on Sheets at RBiA?
For example, take Hamilton, Kinsler, and Young. None are projected to have a .300 BA.
But there's a 72% chance that at least 1 of those 3 will have a .300 BA, a 21% chance that at least 1 of those 3 will hit .325.
Change the group to those 3 plus Crus, Davis, Blalock, and Byrd and there's an 87% chance of at least somebody having a .300 BA and a 31% chance of someobody hitting .325.
Sheets in Texas - 12-7, 3.62, 126 ERA+
I "knew" that regarding .300 hitters, though my brain hadn't gotten around to parsing it as of yet. It's like early in the NBA season, when Hollinger was projecting that one of SA, PHX, and DAL would not make the playoffs this season. Their individual odds were high enough, but take them as a parlay and one of them was more than 50% likely to fail.
Would someone PLEASE point Daniels/Ryan/Hicks to that Sheets projection? Verducci reports that he's asking 2/18 from the Mets...that's gotta be doable, right? RIGHT???
That 1999 Midland squad was a caricature of the "beer league softball" image. They led the league in runs scored by 100 and in runs allowed by 160. The worst position player on the team? Eric Byrnes.
I had also forgotten that Piatt didn't play an OF before making the majors.
.300 BA - 93%
.325 BA - 36%
.350 BA - 4%
40 HR - 38%
.550 SLG - 30%
.375 OBP - 87%
.400 OBP - 31%
45 2B - 15%
200 H - 13%
Diabetic coma?
Teh Blogpakr in Arlingotn p0wnz yur ass!!!!11!!!111111one
My personal favorite:
Please tell me that's real. Please please please tell me TR Sullivan is taking potshots. If you tell me I will post there. If it's real, I will post.
I have a question, Dan. How many pounds of bacon should one leave behind before fording a river?
Please tell me that's real. Please please please tell me TR Sullivan is taking potshots. If you tell me I will post there. If it's real, I will post.
Not a fan?
While it's kind of people to stick up for me, I already have about 15 alternate spellings of my name floating around and I don't need any more.
-- MWE
That sounds about right ;). I thought TR Sullivan was a guy from The New Republic. Shows you how much of a low info voter I've become over the years.
I'm only "kind of" sarcastic? I'm slipping!
It was one time, and he took me by surprise.
I probably shouldn't have said anything! I just thought the comments are funny. Jeff, you would've been awesome at rec.sport.baseball's peak flaming people who just got on the internet with a Web TV. Boy, we were mean to those guys.
By the way, Dan, you made my final exam again. Congrats.
Sweet! What's the context this time?
Heh. Roger Maynard and Gary Blickhan would have cleaned his clock.
(Nice to see you again, as it were, Dan. Keep up the good work.)
This wasn't nearly as much fun as the Gotham Baseball one. Those guys were much more irritating, but they were also a little higher above the rim than the Sullivaniacs over there. I think I wasted the entire afternoon on that one. I should just pick a random baseball website every week and take on the whole readership. I could go to Viva El Birdos and talk about how Bob Gibson was a #####, or Halo Heaven and wonder aloud whether Rod Carew could hit .240 today.
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