BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

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1. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:33 AM (#3057615)

Wow, that's a nice looking projection from Nelson Cruz. I knew his name, but couldn't remember him doing anything in the majors to warrant a 128 OPS+ prediction, but in looking over his minor league stats, the last place he was even slightly less than a great hitter was 2003 in single A.

Boy does that starting rotation look ugly behind Millwood. The Jays, even after losing Burnett to FA, McGowan and Marcum to the DL, can still probably beat those projections and that's discounting their only two reliable startes [Doc and Litsch].

Oh, and Dan, there is a small typo up top:

After all, the team has a 115 OPS+ and scored 901 runs and didn't break 900

, probably should read "didn't break 500."

2. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:33 AM (#3057616)

I'll take two servings of that Nelson Cruz Kool-Aid, thank you very much! What do scouts say about the guy?

3. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:34 AM (#3057618)

No edit here? Oh well, please ignore sloppy, run-on sentences...

4. thinkmaui Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:48 AM (#3057625)

I get a Morgan Ensberg type vibe regarding Nelson Cruz, the hitter. It will be interesting to see how he fares, and how long he lasts.

5. Justin T contains indigenous nudity Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:50 AM (#3057627)

Is it an editorial decision to not divide players into "Excellent" and "Very Good", etc., or just an oversight here?

6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:53 AM (#3057629)

Not that it matters for your projections, but Hurley is out for the year.

Kinda surprised Botts hasn't gotten more of a shot? Not that he's great, but he seems like he could be a serviceable 4th OF bat off the bench for someone or maybe even a starter for an offense-starved team.

Very interested to see what Cruz can do thisy ear.

7. Mike Emeigh

Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:20 AM (#3057638)

It looks like a light bulb went on for Cruz last year. Before last year, he was very much a "swing hard and hope it goes far" kind of player. If Dan's right and he shortened/quickened his swing, it looks like he might have done so without sacrificing much (if any) power - and that bodes well although I think he's more likely to hit 40 doubles and 20 HRs than what the ZiPS projection shows. He's not likely to have a long career (he's already 28), but the Rangers could get two or three useful years out of him.

Botts, unlike Cruz, hasn't made the adjustments he needs to make to his swing, and he still fails to make contact consistently enough to be useful as a result. Plus he's really not an OF; he's a 1B/DH.

-- MWE

8. MM1f Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:43 AM (#3057653)

Why is Stephen Marek on here?

9. As foretold by the prophesy (JFSE) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:07 AM (#3057664)

Ooh, a Casey Daigle sighting!

10. 8ball Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:10 AM (#3057667)

Does this work out to about an 80 win team?

11. 8ball Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:14 AM (#3057671)

Also, Botts is in Japan now.

12. *BaseClogger* Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:20 AM (#3057674)

Dan,

You have two different Millwood ERA projections...

13. cal Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:35 AM (#3057679)

Quick question: Can I assume that Ramirez's defense is much better than Saltalamacchia's since their projections are almost identical but one is listed as Very Good and one as Average?

14. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:43 AM (#3057681)

No. It just means they are both right at the Average/Very Good line. Defense is not accounted.

15. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:58 AM (#3057697)

Ugh, you seriously get these types of emails? Or are you pulling our collective legs?

16. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:05 AM (#3057705)

roberts signed with arizona.
the light bulb for cruz (imo) went off in '06 (zone control + shortening swing), though he certainly turned it up last year... scouts have always liked his raw power and athleticism for his size (generally has had positive reviews on d as well, though it hasn't shown up in the #s). incidentally, anyone could have had this guy - he slid through waivers last year (out of options).

17. ugen64 Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:08 AM (#3057708)

Wow, I honestly didn't realize the Rangers had this many decent to good hitters. Makes you wonder - say they trade one of their catchers to Boston for one of their many young pitchers - or, alternatively, to the Marlins for someone like Dan Uggla, who then could be traded for a pitcher (?). Sign one or two more pitchers from the free agent market and this doesn't look like a terrible team.

18. Walt Davis Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:17 AM (#3057715)

wot do u have gainst David Murphy he run over you're fat stupid dog 600 PA of 113 OPS+ if he was Yankee you'd say he's an all star go root for the Roxies

19. Coach Mr. Potato Head Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:53 AM (#3057726)

Ooh, a Casey Daigle sighting!

I wonder what ZiPS has to say about his wife.

20. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:58 AM (#3057728)

If Hurley keeps having sugary, his teeth will be as rotten as his labrum.

21. frenchredsox Posted: January 22, 2009 at 06:08 AM (#3057729)

Oh, the Rangers signed Vizquel officially. Haven't run the projection yet, but I don't expect it's within a mile of good.

Um dont you mean the Pirates ??

Anyways,what of the lost "DHer" of last year Jason Botts he is still a Ranger & will get more ABs than Nate Gold *wink wink*

22. frenchredsox Posted: January 22, 2009 at 06:55 AM (#3057747)

Excuse me,Dan how come the Turnbow "projection" has so suddenly improved ?

When he signed was a 6.26 ERA/73 ERA+ guy & above is now a 5.36 ERA/85 ERA+........just a question of curiousity.Is it because you see him as suited to Arlington more than Milwaukee or is it simply a revised opinion ?

23. frenchredsox Posted: January 22, 2009 at 08:04 AM (#3057752)

24. Posada Posse Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:35 PM (#3057804)

So Elvis Andrus and his projected 62 OPS+ will be the starting shortstop? They're probably better off just leaving Young at shortstop for one more season and maybe try to trade him while he still has some value.

25. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:42 PM (#3057808)

I agree that Day should go root for the A's even if he is a fat boy!

That Taylor Teagarden projection is worse than I thought it would be. I think I may have wasted a pick in my DMB draft.

Also, that pitching is brutal. The AL West is going to be weak this year. I wouldn't be surprised if the M's are much closer to the top than people think right now.

26. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:01 PM (#3057814)

After all, the team has a 115 OPS+ and scored 901 runs and didn't break 900 and the team didn't exactly sign Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia in the offseason.

English, please.

27. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:05 PM (#3057816)

"y dont u pay attention to team eric hurley had sugary today and will miss the seasson"

I see the guy's point--I "had sugary" just yesterday, and today, I feel like crap. Whole feckin' pint of Ben & Jerry's, I had...

28. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3057820)

I see I owe #26 a Coke. Or a pint of ice cream.

29. Posada Posse Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:17 PM (#3057826)

"y dont u pay attention to team eric hurley had sugary today and will miss the seasson"

What, he'll miss the season with cavities?

Jeez, English is my second language; it must be this guy's sixth language or something.

30. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:48 PM (#3057849)

Maybe he really mean Eric Hurley had scurvy and will miss the seas, son.

31. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:49 PM (#3057850)

Oh, the irony.

32. JPWF13

Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3057861)

I had to look up Nelson Cruz, .342/.429/.695 at AAA followed by .330/.421/.609 in the majors?
43 homes 125 ribbies overall???

I couldn't help but notice that his #1 BBREF comp was Adam Piatt...
he of the utterly mesmerizing (from an mle POV), 1999 of .345-39-135 in AA...

33. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:54 PM (#3057918)

1999 Midland: 273/360/536

Ahh. Those were heady times in A's fandom.

34. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:02 PM (#3057926)

I know it's meaningless, but...NO ONE is projected to hit .300 for the Rangers this year??? Or get on base 37% of the time??? Or draw 60 walks???

The fanboy in me is outraged by the incompetence of Dan's system. The realist in me...man, this year is going to suck for the Rangers unless several players seriously outperform their projections...

Dan - just to get our hopes up so they can be dashed again, can you run a quickie projection on Sheets at RBiA?

35. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:33 PM (#3057958)

Thanks Dan - much appreciated.

I "knew" that regarding .300 hitters, though my brain hadn't gotten around to parsing it as of yet. It's like early in the NBA season, when Hollinger was projecting that one of SA, PHX, and DAL would not make the playoffs this season. Their individual odds were high enough, but take them as a parlay and one of them was more than 50% likely to fail.

Would someone PLEASE point Daniels/Ryan/Hicks to that Sheets projection? Verducci reports that he's asking 2/18 from the Mets...that's gotta be doable, right? RIGHT???

36. Danny Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:40 PM (#3057974)

1999 Midland: 273/360/536

Ahh. Those were heady times in A's fandom.

That 1999 Midland squad was a caricature of the "beer league softball" image. They led the league in runs scored by 100 and in runs allowed by 160. The worst position player on the team? Eric Byrnes.

I had also forgotten that Piatt didn't play an OF before making the majors.

37. DaMick knows what love is. A Boy Loves His Dog. Posted: January 22, 2009 at 10:29 PM (#3058361)

""y dont u pay attention to team eric hurley had sugary today and will miss the seasson""

Diabetic coma?

38. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 01:43 AM (#3058497)

hay fat boy u suck ur mommas teat rangers roolz for life

Teh Blogpakr in Arlingotn p0wnz yur ass!!!!11!!!111111one

39. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:00 AM (#3058502)

That defense looks pretty bad to me unless they put Andrus at SS and Byrd in CF. Although I guess the pitching is worse.

40. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:03 AM (#3058504)

OMFG

Please tell me that's real. Please please please tell me TR Sullivan is taking potshots. If you tell me I will post there. If it's real, I will post.

41. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:04 AM (#3058505)

Dan Simborski has been prominent in the baseball projections business for a long time and Zips is always one of the top performing systems as seen on competitor Baseball Prospectus's website http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564. He's kind of sarcastic but people say he's usually helpful with questions.

I have a question, Dan. How many pounds of bacon should one leave behind before fording a river?

42. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:31 AM (#3058517)

Okay, I said my piece.

43. Mike Emeigh

Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:38 AM (#3058521)

In Davis's comps, I think Dan meant Jason Thompson the 1B, not Justin Thompson the pitcher.

-- MWE

44. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:45 AM (#3058524)

I wondered about that, Mike. I figured it was Freudian.

45. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:49 AM (#3058529)

He's kind of sarcastic but people say he's usually helpful with questions.

That sounds about right ;). I thought TR Sullivan was a guy from The New Republic. Shows you how much of a low info voter I've become over the years.

46. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:21 AM (#3058546)

a little over the top, jeff?

47. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:48 AM (#3058556)

No, I don't think so. Really. I'm telling you, I grew up reading TR. He was the Rangers beat writer for 13 years. He is the textbook definition of a mediocre sportswriter, a mediocre *beatwriter* at that. And the way he just flippantly dismisses what really is an astonishing accomplishment that Szym doesn't get enough credit for rankled me. Who the hell is TR Sullivan? He is no more able to get a table at a nice restaurant than any other guy with a sawbuck for the maitre'd, yet he's running down ZIPS? On top of all that, he does so pretty damned ignorantly and lazily (it took me three clicks and less than 10 seconds to find the Rays 08 projection), which further makes my point.

48. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:50 AM (#3058557)

I would like it on record that Dan and I are not gay lovers, as that one guy implies.

It was one time, and he took me by surprise.

49. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 23, 2009 at 05:32 AM (#3058586)

Heh.

I probably shouldn't have said anything! I just thought the comments are funny. Jeff, you would've been awesome at rec.sport.baseball's peak flaming people who just got on the internet with a Web TV. Boy, we were mean to those guys.

50. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 06:03 AM (#3058592)

I say we all go over there and rip 'em a new one.

By the way, Dan, you made my final exam again. Congrats.

51. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 23, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3059122)

By the way, Dan, you made my final exam again. Congrats.

Sweet! What's the context this time?

52. The Ghost of Pete Incaviglia Posted: January 24, 2009 at 04:03 AM (#3059517)

Do you have an innings count on Sheets's projection as well, Dan?

53. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 24, 2009 at 04:35 AM (#3059533)

It was the same question as last time. But this time, somebody actually picked you as the answer!

54. Dr. Dave Posted: January 24, 2009 at 04:43 AM (#3059536)

you would've been awesome at rec.sport.baseball's peak flaming people who just got on the internet with a Web TV. Boy, we were mean to those guys.

Heh. Roger Maynard and Gary Blickhan would have cleaned his clock.

(Nice to see you again, as it were, Dan. Keep up the good work.)

55. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: January 24, 2009 at 05:05 AM (#3059545)

Sheets projection with the Brewers was 161 IP.

56. Jeff K. Posted: January 24, 2009 at 05:28 AM (#3059552)

I'm not sure exactly where that came from, but hell, it's not like I don't believe it. Reading it tonight it seems a little harsh on poor old T.R., but yeah, #### 'im. I did snicker at my own "droll semi-hack eminently forgettable whatshisname and whatshisbeat sportswriter" line.

This wasn't nearly as much fun as the Gotham Baseball one. Those guys were much more irritating, but they were also a little higher above the rim than the Sullivaniacs over there. I think I wasted the entire afternoon on that one. I should just pick a random baseball website every week and take on the whole readership. I could go to Viva El Birdos and talk about how Bob Gibson was a #####, or Halo Heaven and wonder aloud whether Rod Carew could hit .240 today.

57. jwb Posted: January 28, 2009 at 03:59 AM (#3062058)

Boy does that starting rotation look ugly behind Millwood

and that Millwood projection is kind of rosy. He was that good a few years ago but he was 31 a few years ago and you are so stupid Sikorsky too many plyaers playing worse go root for the O's fat boy.

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