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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, October 10, 2008
2009 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays led the AL in ERA this season and almost all of that staff is guaranteed to be back next year, but the offense has a lot of work to do. None of the hitters are actually terrible per se, but there just haven't been a lot of pleasant surprises for the team. Like the Angels, the Jays are a team that really needs to take advantage of one of the best free agent crops in recent seasons and if they can't do that, they can't be in the hunt for the playoffs and they need to clean house and rebuild. This isn't the NL West and striving to win 86 games and complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox won't get the Jays into October. When the Orioles are being more decisive about organizational direction than your team is, you need to take a long, hard look at your short and long-term goals and I don't think Ricciardi's shown that he does anything but fly by the seat of his pants.
Nothing illustrates the Jays problem than Matt Watson, who's always had the potential to be a good 4th outfielder, being 2nd on the below list.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Alexis Rios rf 28 .293 .347 .478 146 569 88 167 39 6 18 87 45 103 20 5
AVERAGE 1B ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matt Watson* lf 30 .271 .347 .458 55 192 31 52 13 1 7 31 21 29 2 1
AVERAGE LF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lyle Overbay* 1b 32 .270 .350 .417 141 496 65 134 32 1 13 66 60 94 2 1
Scott Rolen 3b 34 .259 .340 .416 102 363 54 94 25 1 10 49 38 61 4 2
Adam Lind* lf 25 .276 .323 .443 127 460 60 127 25 2 16 68 30 97 2 1
Vernon Wells cf 30 .274 .329 .444 130 514 72 141 29 2 18 76 41 71 8 6
AVERAGE CF ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aaron Hill 2b 27 .281 .334 .400 119 438 55 123 29 1 7 51 32 64 4 2
AVERGE 2B ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joe Inglett* 2b 31 .283 .338 .379 122 414 52 117 18 5 4 44 31 61 8 6
Jose Bautista 3b 28 .230 .319 .414 137 457 62 105 25 1 19 65 54 119 4 3
AVERAGE SS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marco Scutaro ss 33 .261 .334 .364 105 352 50 92 16 1 6 39 37 53 4 1
AVERAGE C ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gregg Zaun# c 38 .233 .333 .357 87 258 30 60 14 0 6 31 38 42 1 1
Brad Wilkerson* rf 32 .230 .315 .393 82 270 36 62 15 1 9 37 33 84 2 2
Kevin Mench lf 31 .253 .300 .395 89 281 33 71 17 1 7 35 18 49 1 0
Travis Snider* rf 21 .251 .304 .411 137 526 66 132 27 0 19 74 39 151 2 6
Rod Barajas c 33 .242 .298 .401 85 277 34 67 17 0 9 37 18 52 0 0
Hector Luna 3b 27 .254 .305 .383 119 413 54 105 21 1 10 50 27 87 6 4
Chip Cannon* 1b 27 .223 .295 .369 104 363 36 81 17 0 12 46 34 127 1 0
J.P. Arencibia c 23 .247 .272 .414 99 396 40 98 21 0 15 56 12 83 0 0
Russ Adams* rf 28 .231 .297 .361 119 407 52 94 19 2 10 47 37 73 6 2
Brian Jeroloman* c 24 .226 .320 .313 101 336 27 76 14 0 5 31 46 64 0 0
Buck Coats* cf 27 .243 .291 .341 128 449 53 109 21 1 7 46 30 92 13 3
Curtis Thigpen c 26 .221 .281 .322 100 339 31 75 20 1 4 32 26 61 2 1
Pedro Lopez ss 25 .237 .281 .320 119 413 42 98 17 1 5 39 25 70 4 3
Wayne Lydon rf 28 .227 .289 .297 121 471 61 107 17 2 4 39 40 100 25 7
Danny Sandoval 2b 29 .233 .267 .300 108 390 33 91 14 0 4 33 16 54 4 3
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Rios Av Vg
Watson* Av Av Av
Overbay* Vg
Rolen Ex
Lind* Fr Fr Fr
Wells Av
Hill Vg Pr
Inglett* Av Fr Pr Av Fr Av
Bautista Pr Fr Fr Fr
Scutaro Av Av Vg Av Av
Zaun# Av
Wilkerson* Av Av Pr Av
Mench Fr Fr Fr
Snider* Fr Fr
Barajas Av Av
Luna Av Av Vg Fr
Cannon* Av Pr
Arencibia Av
Adams* Fr Fr Fr Av
Jeroloman* Av
Coats* Vg Fr Vg
Thigpen Fr Av Pr Fr
Lopez Vg Vg
Lydon Vg Vg Vg
Sandoval Av Av Av
Player Spotlight - Alex Rios
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .314 .373 .525 152 592 105 186 45 7 22 101 53 95 25 5 134
Mean .293 .347 .478 146 569 88 167 39 6 18 87 45 103 20 5 115
Pessimistic (15%) .270 .319 .417 137 533 60 144 33 3 13 69 37 110 16 6 93
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Pete Fox, Al Cowens
Player Spotlight - Adam Lind
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%) .297 .348 .518 145 525 80 156 35 6 23 91 39 103 3 1 125
Mean .276 .323 .443 127 460 60 127 25 2 16 68 30 97 2 1 100
Pessimistic (15%) .244 .284 .371 111 402 36 98 19 1 10 48 22 92 1 1 71
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Derrick May, Al Woods
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
B.J. Ryan* 33 2.68 4 1 46 0 47.0 36 14 3 18 51
Scott Downs* 33 2.93 4 1 67 0 67.2 59 22 4 26 57
Roy Halladay 32 3.40 16 9 32 32 225.0 223 85 18 42 155
Casey Janssen 27 3.54 4 2 58 0 61.0 63 24 5 14 36
Brian Tallet* 31 3.76 3 2 56 0 67.0 62 28 5 30 54
Jason Frasor 31 3.79 3 2 54 0 57.0 47 24 5 29 59
Brandon League 26 3.84 3 3 50 0 68.0 68 29 4 25 47
A.J. Burnett 32 3.95 12 10 28 28 180.0 172 79 20 66 170
Shaun Marcum 27 4.04 8 6 30 23 147.0 141 66 20 44 126
Jeremy Accardo 27 4.06 3 3 51 0 51.0 51 23 5 18 37
Jesse Litsch 24 4.09 13 11 31 30 187.0 197 85 21 44 98
AVERAGE RELIEVER ------------- 4.09 -----------------------------------------------
Jesse Carlson* 28 4.11 5 5 65 0 70.0 69 32 8 23 53
Dustin McGowan 27 4.15 9 8 29 23 141.0 133 65 14 62 122
Shawn Camp 33 4.34 3 3 55 0 56.0 60 27 5 15 44
Brett Cecil* 22 4.40 4 4 23 23 90.0 89 44 10 36 65
Brian Wolfe 28 4.57 4 4 43 5 67.0 72 34 8 20 37
AVERAGE STARTER -------------- 4.61 -----------------------------------------------
John Parrish* 31 4.97 3 3 28 7 67.0 70 37 8 37 52
Davis Romero* 26 5.02 7 9 31 20 120.0 136 67 20 38 83
Reid Santos* 26 5.07 3 5 45 4 87.0 93 49 15 33 58
Chris George* 29 5.20 4 7 33 13 97.0 108 56 11 45 61
Jean Machi 27 5.26 3 4 38 4 77.0 84 45 10 39 43
David Purcey* 27 5.27 6 10 23 23 128.0 139 75 19 54 92
Mike Gosling* 28 5.28 4 7 41 9 92.0 102 54 13 41 68
Jordan de Jong 30 5.29 3 5 46 0 68.0 72 40 10 36 49
Mike MacDonald 27 5.43 5 9 31 19 131.0 160 79 19 39 62
Fabio Castro* 24 5.45 4 8 32 14 104.0 110 63 16 53 73
Sean Stidfole 25 5.47 2 3 55 0 74.0 79 45 11 46 43
Bill Murphy* 28 5.51 4 8 42 16 116.0 128 71 17 60 88
Dirk Hayhurst 28 5.55 3 6 42 8 94.0 108 58 14 34 66
Ricky Romero* 24 5.90 4 8 22 22 119.0 138 78 17 67 66
Jonah Bayliss 28 6.13 3 6 57 0 69.0 79 47 14 33 48
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Jesse Litsch
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.44 17 9 34 33 212 207 81 21 38 120 129
Mean 4.09 13 11 31 30 187 197 85 21 44 98 108
Pessimistic (15%) 5.24 8 12 26 26 146 172 85 22 44 72 84
Top Near-Age Comps: Larry Christensen, Jeff Suppan
Player Spotlight - A.J. Burnett
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.13 16 7 30 30 201 173 70 18 61 203 141
Mean 3.95 12 10 28 28 180 172 79 20 66 170 112
Pessimistic (15%) 4.91 8 10 23 23 141 150 77 19 63 124 90
Top Near-Age Comps: Camilo Pascual, Bill Singer
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 10, 2008 at 02:56 PM | 29 comment(s)
Related News: Toronto, ZIPS
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It seems like the only starters who are likely to pitch for Jays next year are Halladay and Litsch. Purcey and Parrish will be back, but I don't think they're be helping win another ERA title. The loss of Marcum, McGowan, and Burnett (it seems likely he'll opt out) really hurts.
I always do projections for those that will probably miss a season.
Is that the same Chris George who had quasi-prospect status about five years ago?
Yes.
It seems like the only starters who are likely to pitch for Jays next year are Halladay and Litsch. Purcey and Parrish will be back, but I don't think they're be helping win another ERA title. The loss of Marcum, McGowan, and Burnett (it seems likely he'll opt out) really hurts.
That's their two likely best starters, they've had serious talks with Burnett, and the entire bullpen.
Wow, I had no idea until now that Hayhurst was claimed by the Blue Jays.
I'm probably going to keep projecting Hayhurst as long as he's in baseball. Meritorious Internetary Contributions. I did that with CBW (and his projections sadly were weaker).
Only Marcum's out for the whole year. McGowan's surgery was to repair fraying in the labrum but nothing was found to be wrong with his rotator cuff and he could be ready for the start of the season, probably May at the latest.
Can you do one for me? I've missed a few seasons - 30 to be precise - when I probably hit about .250 in Little League as a left fielder. I distinctly remember hitting a triple once that year.
As to the Jays you have Rios, Rolen, Wells, and Hill projected to hit better than positional average, while Scutaro is listed as just below average for his (seems odd that he appears to be the everyday shortstop for 2009...I keep hoping for a trade to improve there). It isn't good by any stretch, but having just shy of 1/2 the lineup (1/2 a person shy) above average for their position isn't horrible either, in fact it sounds like what 'normal' should be.
What is the computer thinking there?
Watson being, in theory, the Jay's 2nd best OF seems like it is more Zips problem than the Jays.
Who is Matt Watson?
Slight Phelpser who generally has trouble with lefties. He's probably closer to 330/420 full-time.
He was a regular outfielder for Sacramento earlier this decade who never really got a chance in Oakland. He went to Japan, but now he must be back. He was never a Jays prospect.
Started out as a 3b in the Expos system. Moved to 2b when people thought he couldn't hit for 3b. Started hitting a lot, but I guess folks decided he wasn't an IF at all, so he moves to LF and puts up some good minor league years. Bounces from the Expos to the Mets to the A's.
He was better for Sacramento.
His projection should actually be a little lower - I didn't include his Japanese numbers.
I assumed he was hurt for parts of 06 and 08 and all of 07.
Not exactly. There are lots of ways to get to "normal". Sure, it would be normal for a lineup to have, say, 4 above-average players, one average player and 4 below-average ... or 3/3/3 or whatever. But, generally, some of those above-average guys will be well above-average. Dan doesn't tell us exactly where average is but basically Rios, Rolen, Wells and Hill are just a hair above-average while Overbay and Lind look to be pretty substantially below-average. Scutaro and Zaun (who may not be back) are a smidgen below average and then you have the mystery DH. So the scary thing about that lineup is that there are no good hitters in it.
The second point is that the "average" is a mix of starters and backups. You want your starters to be ab0ve-average because your subs are going to be below. If Rolen plays 100 games of just above-average 3B you need a near-average backup for 60 -- hard to find.
The bright spot of the Jays lineup is the defense. They are above-average at 4 spots (1B, 2B, 3B, RF) and average at 3 and only below-average in LF (assuming Lind). A near-average offense and above-average defense can add up to fine overall value. And, unlike offensive numbers, backups are often as good or better defensively than the starters so an "average" defensive rating can mean that a player is a little better than the average starter at his position. (But, for ZiPS, "average" is something like +/- 5 runs).
What is Janssen's projection as a starter?
Is it just me, or is it terrifying how similar this team is to the A's? (It's just not costing Wolff $100M+ plus he's got much more depth in the minors.) Trading Halladay would break my heart, but can somebody please get this guy some post-season innings already?
Yes.
Snider's a talent, but he strikes out a ton, and the league will figure out pretty quickly that he's going to swing and miss a lot and keep extending his zone. He'll eventually adjust, I think, but it's unrealistic to expect much more than what ZiPS is showing. But he is just 20 (21 in February) and by far the best offensive talent on the team.
-- MWE
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