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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, February 05, 2010
2010 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves
As of now, the Braves are my personal darkhorse pick in the NL. The infield should be solid, if unspectacular and while the outfield has been much criticized, there are enough bodies out there to patch an outfield good enough to keep from balancing out the strengths of the team. Jason Heyward forcing his way onto the team as soon as possible would allow a Hinske/Diaz platoon and let Cabrera fill in the remainder of outfield at-bats, a task he's qualified for.Now, the team's a darkhorse for a reason as the Braves seriously contending does require a little luck with injuries because the positions where the team is most susceptible to boo-boos. Glaus missed almost the entire season with shoulder injuries and Jones is always an injury risk, but the team has very poor upper-minors depth at both positions. The rotation, if the projected 1-5 plays, is very strong and Hanson/Jar-Jar could be the new Smoltz/Glavine, but the team's 6-10 options on the mound aren't the best and Tim Hudson is still coming off major surgery.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Chipper Jones# 3b 38 .295 .402 .465 115 400 66 118 21 1 15 58 74 69 2 0 132 Brian McCann* c 26 .288 .353 .497 144 511 66 147 36 1 23 95 50 81 2 0 125 Matt Diaz rf 32 .307 .364 .463 113 322 43 99 16 2 10 43 22 71 6 2 120 Nate McLouth* cf 28 .268 .355 .467 130 452 94 121 27 3 19 71 54 92 11 2 118 Troy Glaus 3b 33 .252 .358 .441 91 313 45 79 15 1 14 60 51 76 1 0 113 Yunel Escobar ss 27 .294 .365 .416 142 531 82 156 28 2 11 67 54 74 4 4 109 Martin Prado 2b 26 .300 .351 .439 131 453 66 136 30 3 9 53 35 60 2 2 110 Jason Heyward* rf 20 .275 .341 .429 119 448 69 123 25 4 12 53 45 85 6 1 105 Eric Hinske* rf 32 .237 .328 .420 105 257 40 61 15 1 10 36 31 66 3 1 99 Mitch Jones rf 32 .232 .307 .449 93 332 41 77 17 2 17 67 33 111 2 1 100 Garret Anderson* lf 38 .281 .320 .417 113 420 49 118 22 1 11 57 26 68 2 1 96 Barbaro Canizares 1b 30 .271 .331 .396 107 409 43 111 22 1 9 53 35 65 1 1 94 Melky Cabrera# cf 25 .272 .329 .399 155 519 60 141 28 4 10 61 43 65 11 3 94 Omar Infante 2b 28 .281 .333 .393 88 267 37 75 14 2 4 32 22 42 2 1 94 Wes Timmons 1b 30 .243 .354 .343 107 338 56 82 20 1 4 38 47 38 7 3 88 Freddie Freeman* 1b 20 .258 .321 .382 129 489 55 126 27 2 10 64 37 97 2 3 88 Joey Thurston* 2b 30 .266 .331 .375 130 429 58 114 22 5 5 48 36 67 8 6 89 Dave Ross c 33 .222 .316 .389 73 198 25 44 9 0 8 24 27 61 0 0 88 Greg Norton# 1b 37 .235 .340 .343 102 166 19 39 7 1 3 25 26 41 1 0 84 Orlando Mercado c 25 .251 .333 .350 87 283 26 71 14 1 4 42 34 41 0 1 84 Brooks Conrad# 2b 30 .230 .304 .396 139 512 82 118 29 4 16 74 51 141 5 1 86 Jordan Schafer* cf 23 .227 .314 .367 74 264 33 60 12 2 7 26 33 89 5 2 82 Gregor Blanco* cf 26 .245 .337 .317 138 477 74 117 17 4 3 38 65 107 13 7 77 Brent Clevlen rf 26 .225 .289 .367 128 463 50 104 19 4 13 48 39 150 6 2 74 Juan Gonzalez 2b 28 .233 .311 .320 108 347 36 81 16 1 4 40 37 90 3 1 71 Diory Hernandez ss 26 .253 .303 .346 117 431 42 109 21 2 5 48 26 80 7 7 74 Eric Duncan* 3b 25 .235 .282 .350 113 408 42 96 21 1 8 43 26 90 2 2 69 Luis Bolivar# 2b 29 .240 .285 .344 117 375 56 90 16 4 5 36 20 86 18 5 68 Clint Sammons c 27 .236 .289 .333 100 351 35 83 16 0 6 37 24 83 4 1 66 Cody Johnson* lf 21 .187 .260 .339 138 504 38 94 18 1 19 61 49 245 4 4 59 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Jones# Fr/103 McCann* Fr Diaz Av/90 Fr/119 McLouth* Av/71 Fr/71 Av/71 Glaus Av/80 Av/80 Escobar Av/97 Av/97 Av/97 Prado Vg/103 Av/97 Av/77 Pr/87 Av/87 Heyward* Vg/136 Fr/167 Vg/136 Hinske* Av/101 Pr/125 Av/71 Av/71 Jones Fr/199 Pr/104 Pr/104 Anderson* Av/79 Canizares Fr/152 Cabrera# Vg/108 Av/93 Vg/108 Infante Av/109 Av/107 Vg/157 Av/142 Av/142 Timmons Av/60 Fr/85 Av/60 Freeman* Av/133 Thurston* Av/105 Av/122 Vg/44 Fr/44 Ross Vg Norton# Fr/184 Fr/159 Pr/159 Mercado Av Fr/125 Conrad# Av/112 Av/134 Av/112 Pr/163 Av/112 Av/112 Schafer* Av/72 Av/72 Av/72 Blanco* Vg/145 Av/123 Vg/145 Clevlen Vg/159 Fr/138 Vg/159 Gonzalez Fr/139 Av/118 Fr/118 Hernandez Av/110 Vg/126 Av/116 Duncan* Fr/130 Fr/163 Fr/130 Fr/130 Bolivar# Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118 Av/118 Sammons Av Johnson* Fr/180 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 JonesChipper 3B 67% 27% 5% 1% 0% DavisChili BainesHarold McGriffFred McCannBrian C 73% 21% 4% 1% 0% NilssonDave SteinbachTerry MartinezVictor DiazMatt RF 24% 35% 20% 14% 7% WardGaryWashingtonClaude KellyRoberto McLouthNate CF 55% 23% 15% 6% 1% MooreTerry WyrostekJohnny BakerDusty PradoMartin 2B 37% 21% 18% 15% 9% HillAaron CashDave AdairJerry GlausTroy 3B 17% 40% 28% 11% 3% MantoJeff PetrocelliRico VenturaRobin EscobarYunel SS 44% 28% 19% 7% 2% LoganJohnny ApplingLuke TravisCecil HeywardJason RF 7% 22% 24% 27% 21% WhiteRondellHollandsworthTod MarkakisNick AndersonGarret LF 3% 10% 14% 24% 49% JordanBrian SierraRuben GriffeyKen InfanteOmar 2B 11% 16% 22% 28% 23% GriffinDoug SanchezFreddy FonsecaLew CanizaresBarbaro 1B 2% 5% 10% 31% 52% GallJohn BowieJim RollinsRich ThurstonJoe 2B 5% 7% 14% 28% 46% MorandiniMickey AndersonMarlon TaylorTony FreemanFreddie 1B 0% 1% 3% 19% 76% LoneyJames DeSaJoeMelendezFrancisco TimmonsWes 1B 0% 3% 5% 23% 69% KammWillie SuttonLarry JohnsonRuss ConradBrooks 2B 8% 9% 15% 26% 43% YoungPep SheldonScott ValentinJose RossDave C 5% 20% 29% 32% 14% TriandosGus SeminickAndy BrenlyBob NortonGreg 1B 0% 1% 2% 17% 80% MuellerHeinie PrideCurtis GonzalesRene SchaferJordan CF 2% 3% 9% 26% 60% JavierStan ReidJessie KnabenshueChris BlancoGregor CF 0% 1% 6% 22% 70% ButlerBrett RobertsDave ManningRick MazaLuis 2B 0% 1% 3% 13% 82% CarrollJamey CairoMiguel MorrisWarren HernandezDiory SS 0% 2% 7% 23% 67% PolcovichKevin MaurerRon VelandiaJorge SammonsClint C 0% 1% 4% 19% 75% DifeliceMike KratzErik MoralesWillie JohnsonCody LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% WilliamsJuan HodgeTim HustGary Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB JonesChipper 44% 82% 23% 30% 0% 0% 2% 0% McCannBrian 34% 23% 47% 23% 16% 0% 19% 0% DiazMatt 60% 35% 20% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% McLouthNate 13% 23% 22% 12% 1% 0% 7% 0% PradoMartin 49% 19% 9% 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% GlausTroy 6% 28% 10% 6% 0% 0% 1% 0% EscobarYunel 41% 36% 5% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% HeywardJason 17% 11% 5% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% AndersonGarret 29% 4% 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% InfanteOmar 30% 11% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% CanizaresBarbaro 16% 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ThurstonJoe 11% 6% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% FreemanFreddie 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TimmonsWes 3% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ConradBrooks 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% RossDave 2% 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NortonGreg 6% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SchaferJordan 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BlancoGregor 2% 8% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% MazaLuis 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% HernandezDiory 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SammonsClint 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% JohnsonCody 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Thomas Hanson 23 3.19 14 7 31 31 172.1 141 61 17 68 177 136 Jair Jurrjens 24 3.46 16 9 34 34 208.0 196 80 15 73 162 125 Tim Hudson 34 3.94 8 5 19 19 112.0 118 49 9 30 65 115 Kenshin Kawakami 35 3.94 11 9 28 23 166.2 164 73 19 50 127 110 Derek Lowe 37 4.05 13 11 32 32 188.2 200 85 15 55 125 107 Jose Ortegano* 22 4.90 6 7 26 19 101.0 111 55 10 44 70 92 Scott Diamond* 23 5.09 7 10 25 25 138.0 157 78 14 65 87 89 James Parr 24 5.11 4 5 22 16 91.2 102 52 13 34 62 88 Jo-Jo Reyes* 25 5.21 4 6 19 18 95.0 102 55 13 48 69 87 Edgar Osuna* 22 5.28 7 10 29 22 134.2 156 79 19 50 83 85 Tom Glavine* 44 5.34 4 6 18 18 97.2 114 58 14 39 48 84 Francisley Bueno* 29 5.38 3 4 28 12 78.2 94 47 10 33 46 84 Jonny Venters* 25 5.42 5 7 21 18 96.1 108 58 10 58 55 83 Todd Redmond 25 5.76 6 11 28 27 148.1 177 95 27 51 90 78 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Takashi Saito 40 2.72 5 1 52 0 53.0 42 16 5 19 56 161 Billy Wagner* 38 3.00 2 1 37 0 36.0 29 12 3 11 44 150 Peter Moylan 31 3.60 4 2 62 0 55.0 51 22 4 24 44 125 Kris Medlen 24 4.31 8 7 42 13 108.2 112 52 11 40 101 105 Eric O'Flaherty* 25 4.32 2 2 61 0 50.0 51 24 4 19 38 104 Craig Kimbrel 22 4.35 2 2 37 0 41.1 36 20 4 30 48 104 Buddy Carlyle 32 4.66 4 4 34 8 73.1 78 38 9 26 59 97 Manny Acosta 29 4.71 4 4 56 1 65.0 67 34 7 37 51 96 Scott Proctor 33 4.73 2 2 44 0 45.2 46 24 6 24 38 95 Cory Gearrin 24 4.78 3 4 45 0 49.0 50 26 6 26 42 94 Jesse Chavez 26 4.78 3 3 68 0 75.1 80 40 10 28 60 91 Luis Valdez 26 4.88 5 6 66 0 86.2 94 47 9 42 69 92 Mariano Gomez* 27 4.96 4 5 52 0 65.1 71 36 7 32 39 91 Vladimir Nunez 35 5.12 3 4 44 4 82.2 88 47 10 45 61 88 Michael Dunn* 25 5.21 3 5 44 0 76.0 75 44 9 56 73 88 Stephen Marek 26 5.27 4 5 51 0 54.2 56 32 6 37 46 86 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 HansonTommy SP 93% 7% 0% MartinezRamon SmoltzJohn YoumansFloyd JurrjensJair SP 88% 11% 1% MadduxGreg IsringhausenJason StiebDave MoylanPeter RP 60% 35% 4% RiveraSaul PowerTed BaileyCory HudsonTim SP 66% 30% 3% GarciaMike LoweDerek GalehouseDenny KawakamiKenshin SP 46% 51% 3% TapaniKevin SaberhagenBret WilliamsWoody LoweDerek SP 38% 49% 14% TewksburyBob TapaniKevin MorganMike MedlenKris SP 17% 64% 19% AllenNeil RobinsonDon FisherBrian O'FlahertyEric RP 29% 47% 24% OlwineEd MoloneyBill von OhlenDave KimbrelCraig RP 26% 43% 31% ClearMark LittellMark PlunkEric CarlyleBuddy RP 10% 50% 40% MeachamRusty LeiterMark NicholsRod AcostaManny RP 10% 46% 44% PisciottaMarc CorcoranRoy LugoRuddy ProctorScott RP 11% 42% 46% BochtlerDoug HarrisGreg WadeBen GearrinCory RP 10% 39% 52% ShadeMike BlasucciTony SempriniJohn ValdezLuis RP 3% 41% 55% SlocumbHeathcliff BravoFranklin HannahsGerry OrteganoJose SP 16% 51% 33% McGrawTom AndersonAllan CiccarellaJoe GomezMariano RP 5% 34% 61% CumberlandChris BarzillaPhilip FerrariAnthony DiamondScott SP 7% 50% 43% DanielsJohn ChapmanJake ThompsonDerek ParrJames SP 12% 46% 42% KlingenbeckScott FarnsworthKyle ClarkMark NunezVladimir RP 6% 29% 65% MahomesPat JonesOdell BrowerJim LymanJeff RP 3% 33% 64% SlocumbHeathcliff WelchBob LangdonTed ReyesJo-Jo SP 7% 42% 51% RedmanMark SmithZane de la RosaJorge MarekStephen RP 4% 26% 70% BanksJosh ShadeMike SikarasPete OsunaEdgar SP 3% 39% 58% LorraineAndrew MalaskaMark ManningDerek GlavineTom SP 7% 35% 58% FlanaganMike WhitehillEarl TananaFrank BuenoFrancisley SP 1% 22% 77% OttoDave MusselmanJeff LeeRobert VentersJonathan SP 3% 32% 65% ThompsonDerek KubesGreg AllenHarold AbreuJuan RP 4% 26% 70% SchroderChris GiardKen SimpsonAllan RedmondTodd SP 0% 18% 81% FranklinRyan GuerraMark AveretteRobert CofieldKyle SP 0% 9% 91% MorelEdwin PhillipsJason LaxtonBrett Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 HansonTommy 67% 99% 89% 0% 74% JurrjensJair 46% 97% 10% 1% 95% MoylanPeter 52% 90% 19% 1% 91% HudsonTim 31% 84% 1% 26% 90% KawakamiKenshin 10% 77% 5% 7% 44% LoweDerek 11% 61% 6% 14% 88% MedlenKris 14% 70% 63% 1% 73% O'FlahertyEric 22% 69% 12% 3% 89% KimbrelCraig 19% 61% 94% 0% 75% CarlyleBuddy 7% 53% 22% 3% 40% AcostaManny 7% 42% 14% 0% 61% ProctorScott 8% 37% 35% 0% 42% GearrinCory 10% 40% 35% 0% 45% ValdezLuis 2% 33% 16% 0% 66% OrteganoJose 3% 32% 2% 0% 66% GomezMariano 4% 33% 2% 0% 60% DiamondScott 0% 21% 1% 0% 62% ParrJames 1% 27% 1% 1% 24% NunezVladimir 4% 26% 11% 0% 48% LymanJeff 2% 23% 10% 0% 66% ReyesJo-Jo 1% 21% 3% 0% 36% MarekStephen 3% 24% 29% 0% 55% OsunaEdgar 0% 11% 0% 1% 27% GlavineTom 1% 20% 0% 2% 39% BuenoFrancisley 1% 15% 1% 0% 51% VentersJonathan 0% 11% 0% 0% 69% AbreuJuan 2% 17% 55% 0% 44% RedmondTodd 0% 3% 0% 1% 5% CofieldKyle 0% 1% 0% 0% 57% Extrapolated Career Statistics Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ HudsonTim 193 116 0 3.66 429 428 2749 2702 223 832 1804 121 JurrjensJair 207 145 0 3.78 480 482 2892 2815 265 1068 2178 118 LoweDerek 188 160 85 3.97 687 408 2830 2914 233 812 1821 114 Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ McCannBrian .279 .346 .471 2307 8122 998 2270 532 11 335 1433 803 1363 30 3 116 EscobarYunel .287 .360 .401 1933 7204 1088 2067 356 22 141 857 745 1072 51 55 104 GlausTroy .253 .356 .475 1962 6930 1098 1751 362 14 383 1182 1090 1758 57 29 116 JonesChipper .305 .405 .526 2594 9322 1697 2842 547 41 479 1654 1610 1498 150 44 141 McLouthNate .255 .339 .434 1726 5867 1131 1495 333 30 220 802 655 1227 159 26 105 AndersonGarret .293 .325 .460 2418 9490 1191 2782 569 38 311 1487 486 1360 84 50 103 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
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Yeah, 0% chance of being in the bottom group for a 23 YO entering his first full big league season? That's pretty sick.
Also, these projections are heartening.
Also, also, I cringe to see Garret Anderson still affiliated with the Braves.
Also, also, also, Edgar Osuna is on the Royals for the time being as a Rule 5 pick.
This.
Same with Gonzalez after signing with the O's? Or some sweet separet TOs!
Braves look pretty good. I like the projection on Heyward, he'll be getting his chance to play every day now, and I think that's a pretty fair line for him,
Er, separate. That was an ugly typo.
He's been pulling a Zito the past couple years with a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate.
Excellent analysis, Dan. If Glaus and four of the starters are healthy, this club should be right there in September.
IRRC, his #1 age comparison last year was Roger Clemens. I looked up their age 22 seasons on b-r. Were almost carbon copies. But Roger had a huge spike in the K rate starting the next year. Jurrjens obviously didn't, though ZiPS seems optimistic on that count.
This team has to have among the higher exposure to injuries. Their key hitters are old and injury prone( Glaus, Chipper ) or a catcher ( McCann ). And their best pitchers are starters under the age of 25. They could win the division or battle with the Gnats for last place.
Gonzalez BAL - 3-2, 4.11 (ERA+ 111), 50.1 IP, 46 H, 7 HR, 22 BB, 54 K.
Soriano TB - 3-1, 3.25 (ERA+ 137), 55.1 IP, 44 H, 6 HR, 20 BB, 61 K.
Sorry about rather piss-poor transaction coverage this year. As I explained in another entry, I got very little done for about 6 weeks while I was very ill.
ZiPS has always loved Vazquez.
Awesome, because I definitely want the over. I like Hanson, but I just think it's pretty unlikely for him to put up an ERA under 3.20 in his first full season in the majors now that teams have more time to scout and prepare for him. I mean, he's not Tim Lincecum for Christ's sake ;)
Thanks for the quick response, appreciate it!
I didn't know BAL makes pitchers digress that much :-/
That one is a pretty tough sell to me. He's already 12 SB to 3 CS so far. I can buy 18 more stolen bases for him during his career, but not zero more caught stealings.
I think you misinterpreted what was meant by "under."
So Saito and Wagner project to be way better than Soriano / Gonzalez for half the cost. One of those offseason moves I wasn't a fan of , but ZiPS likes it.
And also this. Funniest projection line after Chad Fox.
Cody Johnson* lf 21 .187 .260 .339 138 504 38 94 18 1 19 61 49 245 4 4 59
245 Ks! :)
Saito/Wagner and Gonzalez/Soriano surprises me as well, especially Wagner and Gonzalez. Of course Wagner's projected IP are very low but it's still surprising.
Glaus is a pleasant surprise, I'd take that at 1B definitely. I thought Hinske would be better but looking at him I guess I didn't really have a good reason for thinking that. Haha
Prado's defense surprises me a little at 2B, I thought he would have a Fr range rating and an error rating just below 100. I just don't think he is an average fielder at 2B.
Lowe and Kawakami got better projections than I thought they would, rotation really looks good with some combination of Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, Lowe, and Kawakami.
How many wins do you project this team to have? Phillies are probably still better but I think if those 2 teams (as projected) went up against each other head to head it would be pretty even.
So the numbers after the slash following the defensive ratings are "error ratings?" How does that work?
Hanson is the best pitcher since 1940? I hope that was sarcasm that I just failed to pick up on because that is a ridiculous statement to make at this stage of his career.
Don't forget, Greinke's also in the harder league and a team with a pretty lousy defense.
I actually think that underrates his talents. I personally think he will near-probably be the greatest pitcher of all time. How often do people his age post seasons like last year's?
DMB breaks fielding into two ratings: "playmaking" (rated Pr, Fr, Av, Vg, Ex) and "error rate."
The latter is just the player's normalized rate of making errors; 100 is average, 150 is 50% more errors than average, etc.
So a typical Av/97 fielder is just barely above average overall, although that Av rating is something like a 12 run range, so Dan could be pegging Prado anywhere from +7 to -6 or so.
On that note: Dan, I love me some DMB, but for projection purposes I'd rather see something more UZR-ish with a run value rather than just a range rating - that way we know if two guys who are rated Av/100 and Fr/100 are 2 runs apart or 20...
That has to be sarcasm. :D
How much difference do you think a good defense would make in Greinke's case? Like I've said before, I never expected a 200 ERA+ like he posted last year but 142 and seeing some of the others really surprises me. I know Greinke is in the more difficult league but that makes what he did last year that much more impressive.
As I said, just curious about the methodology, as defensive ratings are notoriously volatile.
How do YOU know?
But probably, yes.
Yeah, as Mr. Jones noted lower in the thread, I meant "a lower ERA+, and thus a higher ERA". Too bad, because I am very pro-BR sponsorship.
Actually, it's irony, not sarcasm.
/pedantic jerk again
Can you explain the difference? It has always confused me.
Though if he did, I guess that could be the fun part. .250/.350/.300 is a pretty weird line.
My understanding is that sarcasm always has a derisive intent, but irony does not.
He hit .251/.366/.309 with 74 walks and 99 strikeouts in 430 at-bats. Basically, Gregor Blanco is what happens when a hitter decides he won't swing until the count is 3-2. He's a slap hitting hitting speedster who strikes out like a power hitter. That sort of stubbornness is a validation of the human spirit.
Being sarcastic is saying "Oh, it's such a lovely day outside," when it's cold and rainy and miserable. Irony is having 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.
You botched that, but yeah, sarcasm is a form of verbal irony.
I'll take the under on: Hanson, Martin Prado
I don't know if Jason Heyward will be over or under, but my gut instinct for him is that he'll either under-perform or destroy that line. If he doesn't falter badly with the ML transition - i.e. he plays in Atlanta and doesn't post 85ish OPS+ - he'll post a 120 or higher.
I certainly did, didn't I?
It's hyperbole, not sarcasm or irony
(another pedantic jerk)
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