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Yeah, 0% chance of being in the bottom group for a 23 YO entering his first full big league season? That's pretty sick.
Also, these projections are heartening.
Also, also, I cringe to see Garret Anderson still affiliated with the Braves.
Also, also, also, Edgar Osuna is on the Royals for the time being as a Rule 5 pick.
This.
Same with Gonzalez after signing with the O's? Or some sweet separet TOs!
Braves look pretty good. I like the projection on Heyward, he'll be getting his chance to play every day now, and I think that's a pretty fair line for him,
Er, separate. That was an ugly typo.
He's been pulling a Zito the past couple years with a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate.
Excellent analysis, Dan. If Glaus and four of the starters are healthy, this club should be right there in September.
IRRC, his #1 age comparison last year was Roger Clemens. I looked up their age 22 seasons on b-r. Were almost carbon copies. But Roger had a huge spike in the K rate starting the next year. Jurrjens obviously didn't, though ZiPS seems optimistic on that count.
This team has to have among the higher exposure to injuries. Their key hitters are old and injury prone( Glaus, Chipper ) or a catcher ( McCann ). And their best pitchers are starters under the age of 25. They could win the division or battle with the Gnats for last place.
Gonzalez BAL - 3-2, 4.11 (ERA+ 111), 50.1 IP, 46 H, 7 HR, 22 BB, 54 K.
Soriano TB - 3-1, 3.25 (ERA+ 137), 55.1 IP, 44 H, 6 HR, 20 BB, 61 K.
Sorry about rather piss-poor transaction coverage this year. As I explained in another entry, I got very little done for about 6 weeks while I was very ill.
ZiPS has always loved Vazquez.
Awesome, because I definitely want the over. I like Hanson, but I just think it's pretty unlikely for him to put up an ERA under 3.20 in his first full season in the majors now that teams have more time to scout and prepare for him. I mean, he's not Tim Lincecum for Christ's sake ;)
Thanks for the quick response, appreciate it!
I didn't know BAL makes pitchers digress that much :-/
That one is a pretty tough sell to me. He's already 12 SB to 3 CS so far. I can buy 18 more stolen bases for him during his career, but not zero more caught stealings.
I think you misinterpreted what was meant by "under."
So Saito and Wagner project to be way better than Soriano / Gonzalez for half the cost. One of those offseason moves I wasn't a fan of , but ZiPS likes it.
And also this. Funniest projection line after Chad Fox.
Cody Johnson* lf 21 .187 .260 .339 138 504 38 94 18 1 19 61 49 245 4 4 59
245 Ks! :)
Saito/Wagner and Gonzalez/Soriano surprises me as well, especially Wagner and Gonzalez. Of course Wagner's projected IP are very low but it's still surprising.
Glaus is a pleasant surprise, I'd take that at 1B definitely. I thought Hinske would be better but looking at him I guess I didn't really have a good reason for thinking that. Haha
Prado's defense surprises me a little at 2B, I thought he would have a Fr range rating and an error rating just below 100. I just don't think he is an average fielder at 2B.
Lowe and Kawakami got better projections than I thought they would, rotation really looks good with some combination of Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, Lowe, and Kawakami.
How many wins do you project this team to have? Phillies are probably still better but I think if those 2 teams (as projected) went up against each other head to head it would be pretty even.
So the numbers after the slash following the defensive ratings are "error ratings?" How does that work?
Hanson is the best pitcher since 1940? I hope that was sarcasm that I just failed to pick up on because that is a ridiculous statement to make at this stage of his career.
Don't forget, Greinke's also in the harder league and a team with a pretty lousy defense.
I actually think that underrates his talents. I personally think he will near-probably be the greatest pitcher of all time. How often do people his age post seasons like last year's?
DMB breaks fielding into two ratings: "playmaking" (rated Pr, Fr, Av, Vg, Ex) and "error rate."
The latter is just the player's normalized rate of making errors; 100 is average, 150 is 50% more errors than average, etc.
So a typical Av/97 fielder is just barely above average overall, although that Av rating is something like a 12 run range, so Dan could be pegging Prado anywhere from +7 to -6 or so.
On that note: Dan, I love me some DMB, but for projection purposes I'd rather see something more UZR-ish with a run value rather than just a range rating - that way we know if two guys who are rated Av/100 and Fr/100 are 2 runs apart or 20...
That has to be sarcasm. :D
How much difference do you think a good defense would make in Greinke's case? Like I've said before, I never expected a 200 ERA+ like he posted last year but 142 and seeing some of the others really surprises me. I know Greinke is in the more difficult league but that makes what he did last year that much more impressive.
As I said, just curious about the methodology, as defensive ratings are notoriously volatile.
How do YOU know?
But probably, yes.
Yeah, as Mr. Jones noted lower in the thread, I meant "a lower ERA+, and thus a higher ERA". Too bad, because I am very pro-BR sponsorship.
Actually, it's irony, not sarcasm.
/pedantic jerk again
Can you explain the difference? It has always confused me.
Though if he did, I guess that could be the fun part. .250/.350/.300 is a pretty weird line.
My understanding is that sarcasm always has a derisive intent, but irony does not.
He hit .251/.366/.309 with 74 walks and 99 strikeouts in 430 at-bats. Basically, Gregor Blanco is what happens when a hitter decides he won't swing until the count is 3-2. He's a slap hitting hitting speedster who strikes out like a power hitter. That sort of stubbornness is a validation of the human spirit.
Being sarcastic is saying "Oh, it's such a lovely day outside," when it's cold and rainy and miserable. Irony is having 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.
You botched that, but yeah, sarcasm is a form of verbal irony.
I'll take the under on: Hanson, Martin Prado
I don't know if Jason Heyward will be over or under, but my gut instinct for him is that he'll either under-perform or destroy that line. If he doesn't falter badly with the ML transition - i.e. he plays in Atlanta and doesn't post 85ish OPS+ - he'll post a 120 or higher.
I certainly did, didn't I?
It's hyperbole, not sarcasm or irony
(another pedantic jerk)
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