In other words, Dustin Pedroia's going to the Hall on the first ballot.

i've got a question for people who've tracked junichi tazawa this season. he'll be a free agent in my sim league this offseason, and i'm considering putting out a 5 year, $6 million offer. basically, all i want to know is if he has enough upside to be worth anywhere near that amount of coin.

my salary cap will be in the area of 130 million, so the cash isn't gonna be a problem. his talent would be the only issue.

Lester's peripherals don't seem to match his ERA.

So, Bay is basically the dangerous FA that will get too many $ and too many years this winter? IOW, a Met.

Re: Tazawa

I would say that if you could get him at that, it would be a steal. I don't see any reason he can't be at least a solid #4SP, and those fetch $4-5M/year in my league. That said, if your league is anything like mine (mirrors MLB, 30 teams, etc), there's not a chance you get him at that price.

I know of one free agent left fielder who would be a great fit for the Red Sox...

...

...

......Barry Bonds.

Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.

Jacoby Ellsbury* 26 .290 .344 .398

His career line is better than this across the board, yet the system expects him to regress, a year or so before his peak?

The top OPS+ numbers should be troubling-not that the Sox can't win with 6 guys being above 110 (they can), but you have to expect some dropoffs here and there (Law of Competitive Balance and all that), such that it is a bit more comforting to have a truly elite hitter (still in his prime) in there who can carry the team. 4 of them were above 130 last year, but with the top ones in the projection maxed out around 127, they'll need someone else to pick up the slack, but I'm not sure who (VMart as the mostly full-time C will help of course).

Lester has had a ~3.30 ERA the past two years, and the K rate in '09 was no fluke, so yeah.

Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.

on ERA or ERA+ ?

I would say that if you could get him at that, it would be a steal. I don't see any reason he can't be at least a solid #4SP, and those fetch $4-5M/year in my league. That said, if your league is anything like mine (mirrors MLB, 30 teams, etc), there's not a chance you get him at that price.

i'm anticipating that noone (and that very well could be including myself considering the money i'll be locking myself into for a SS) will have any appreciable amount of cash. also, with guys like johan santana, josh beckett, aj burnett, roy halladay, jake peavy, derrick lowe, javier vazquez, john lackey, cliff lee, and carlos zambrano, i'm anticipating that a quick bid like that on day 1 will close the competition.


i've got a ton of cheap top end pitching right now, and i'm looking to put a hurt on everyone in my league by running out a lineup that's indestructable, with a rotation featuring edwin jackson, wandy rodriguez, shaun marcum, justin masterson, clayton richard, plus a guy like tazawa, and some veteran placeholders, most likely in the form of two of jarrod washburn, tim hudson, ryan dempster, nick blackburn, or one other name that i'm keeping to myself.

3.57, 136 ERA+... I guess Wagner never really did recover from TJ. I thought he'd be somewhere closer to last year's projection.

And Jed: over on the rate stats, but he has a good chance to be under on the playing time (and if so the rate stats might drop too if he plays hurt).

Papi's career projections-he might be an interesting HoF candidate if he gets to those numbers, but I don't think he'll make it.

fyi, van every (those range ratings are way too low, but i say that every year) is a pirate. carter is a met.

The offense could use some work. Certainly Holliday fits better here than Bay ... but then he fits better everywhere than Bay. I suppose if there's a good corner OF coming on the market for 2011, you could live with a year of Bay in LF then move him to DH when Ortiz leaves.

Obviously SS is still an issue. Another big issue is whether to try to extend Martinez now (another possibility for the post-Ortiz DH) or wait. And it never ceases to amaze just how quickly starting pitching depth can disappear. It's still OK -- solid top 5, Bowden is a good #6, I suppose Bard could be moved into the rotation if need be. Will we see a repeat of them signing every injured starter on the market?

Interesting career projection for Ellsbury. I don't see him lasting that many games with a career 89 OPS+.

Edit: Is Ellsbury the new Dave Collins?

The Sox will need to replace Jason Bay's bat somehow.

And they still need to have a better plan to address the gaping chest wound at SS than "Lowrie will be OK this season, we're sure of it!"

Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen have eerily similar projections. Right down to the same three comps.

Interesting set of comps for Bay. Allison and Bonds both had three good years left in them, then crashed out of the majors quickly. Kiner's back went out on him after his age-31 season, curtailing his career. Says to me that I sure wouldn't offer Bay any more than three years.

-- MWE

ok, so a friend and i are GMs of a team that plays on a computer data based fantasy league with 12 teams which draft players merely from about 9 mlb teams, the red sox being one of them. the defense ratings look exactly the same as the ones that are emailed to the GMs at the beginning of each season. The data resembles the stuff being shown in these ZiPS projections makes me wonder a couple things i hope someone can answer. 1) Is there a program that uses this sort of projecting for private, offline fantasy leagues, and 2) are these projections based off each players career, park adjusted, and all that? Thanks

wow. awesome info. thanks!

Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.

I was going to say the exact opposite. I'm looking for Lester, at least ERA+-wise, to compete with Hernandez, Greinke and Halladay at the top of the league.

I was going to say the exact opposite. I'm looking for Lester, at least ERA+-wise, to compete with Hernandez, Greinke and Halladay at the top of the league.

I agreed. His ERA is going to be well below 4.

Oh, I see.

And they still need to have a better plan to address the gaping chest wound at SS than "Lowrie will be OK this season, we're sure of it!"

Can you live with a platoon? They've already added "Wow, Iglesias's glove is excellent; maybe he could be ready next year."

I'd probably do one for OOTP, too, but I don't own the game and I don't have any connections with the developers.

Markus Heinsohn is incredibly approachable.

Chris Carter was traded to the Mets as a PTBNL in the Wagner deal.

I am surprised Ellsbury rate as only average in center. I see his defensive numbers are nothing special on fangraphs too. In the limited time I have seen him play, he has looked like a gold glover.

I am surprised Ellsbury rate as only average in center. I see his defensive numbers are nothing special on fangraphs too. In the limited time I have seen him play, he has looked like a gold glover.

He makes great plays, but watch the routes he takes sometimes. I don't think he's as bad as his defensive numbers this year, but he's also not a gold glover in CF, at least not right now. "Average" seems like the right ballpark for him.

Ellsbury was dropped in the order last May 31 in order to work on using the count to his advantage -- at the time he had a higher career SA after falling behind 0-1 than he did after getting ahead 1-0, whereas the average player gains about .120, and he said the same deficit comparing 2-0 to 0-2 (gaining .107 vs. the average of c. 215). He wasn't restored to leadoff until the team felt he had made significant progress in improving his approach. He was hitting .299 / .332 / .370 when demoted and hit .303 / .366 / .438 afterward, and in this case the near doubling of IsoD was the result of hitting the ball harder and forcing pitchers to work him much more carefully, especially once they fell behind him (he had been last on the team in % of pitches outside the strike zone). That improvement was absolutely real and anything much less than an 800 OPS will be a disappointment. If he continues to work on looking for his pitch and driving the ball, he could be even better. I know that Ron Shandler believes that second half / first half splits have some predictive value -- has ZiPS looked into that?

Re his D, I believe the numbers are accurate. He's great going to his left and right, but has trouble on balls over his head and as a result played too deeply, which made his already bad-looking performance on balls hit in front of him (same problem getting a good read and jump as balls hit over his head) just brutal statistically. He also had serious problems early in the year on balls hit near the wall, but made a lot of progress on that during the season. He just needs more reps reading the ball off MLB bats, and there's every reason to think he can be a league average defender this year and a plus one, commensurate with his obvious tools, after that.

Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.

Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.

Unfortunately, Papelbon's comp is Eric Gagne.

He was hitting .299 / .332 / .370 when demoted and hit .303 / .366 / .438 afterward, and in this case the near doubling of IsoD was the result of hitting the ball harder and forcing pitchers to work him much more carefully, especially once they fell behind him (he had been last on the team in % of pitches outside the strike zone). That improvement was absolutely real and anything much less than an 800 OPS will be a disappointment. If he continues to work on looking for his pitch and driving the ball, he could be even better. I know that Ron Shandler believes that second half / first half splits have some predictive value -- has ZiPS looked into that?

I believe the standard stats line is that these splits have no added predictive value vs. the full year statistics.

I would love to see a projection for Hermida now that he is a RedSox.

The redsox also claimed Robert Manual from the Mariners. He had a pretty nice year last year, would like to see his projection too. He was actually a pretty good simmer in a league I am in last year, and wonder if I should try to trade for him.

Hey Dan, I'm just wondering if there's been any updates regarding Kalish's missing projection. Thanks.

A while back, I proposed an Ellsbury-Adam Dunn swap on BP. Joe Sheehan responded that if the Nats offered that deal, Theo would laugh them out of the room. But I still hold that a) Dunn has more value to the Sox as a DH option than Ellsbury does as a CF, and b) a good defensive OF would be a better option to put in CF than Ellsbury.

What do you think?

Hey Dan.
Any thoughts on Ryan Kalish, Robert Manual and Jeremy Hermida??

A while back, I proposed an Ellsbury-Adam Dunn swap on BP. Joe Sheehan responded that if the Nats offered that deal, Theo would laugh them out of the room. But I still hold that a) Dunn has more value to the Sox as a DH option than Ellsbury does as a CF, and b) a good defensive OF would be a better option to put in CF than Ellsbury.

One year of Adam Dunn at $10M for four years of Jacoby Ellsbury way under market value?

Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.

Greg Gagne had nothing on Brian Christopher, Erik Watts, or that really skinny Von Erich.

Getting back on point, the Red Sox really do seem to prefer high contact hitters. Perhaps in absence of a bopper, they're going to try to get 'em on, get 'em over, and get 'em in?

Didn't notice that - I better check that again just to be safe.

Was Ramon Ramirez checked again? Just looking at his Baseball Reference page...he has a ERA+ of 138, including 165 the last two seasons, with just a glitch in 2007(17 ip for the Rockies). 115 doesn't seem to do him much justice here. Is that a mistake, or are there reasons?

Was Ramon Ramirez checked again? Just looking at his Baseball Reference page...he has a ERA+ of 138, including 165 the last two seasons, with just a glitch in 2007(17 ip for the Rockies). 115 doesn't seem to do him much justice here. Is that a mistake, or are there reasons?

His peripherals last year didn't support that ERA - I'm guessing that's the issue.

His peripherals last year didn't support that ERA - I'm guessing that's the issue.

I get that, and I wasn't expecting to see another 165 up there, but just didn't think it'd be 50 points lower. But even looking at his career work, he has a 3.66 FIP and 138 ERA+ That's a quick decline for a 28/29 year old who's peripherals were still average or better last year..

Still would love to see a projecton for Jeremy Hermida. Also, any chance that Casey Kelly gets a projection in the final disk? Same with Jose Iglesias. I definitely thought he would be getting a projection at least.