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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, October 26, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
What can you say about the Red Sox? They're a solid organization, willing to invest in the team, and despite getting swept in the first round of the playoffs, they still went 95-67 in a tough division.The Sox will need to replace Jason Bay's bat somehow. Bay's unfortunately probably not going to be worth the Teixeira numbers being tossed around thanks to pretty poor defense and there's simply no star bats coming up through the system at this moment. The team was obviously hoping for a breakthrough season in the minors for Lars Anderson, but he instead hit like a utility infielder. Reddick's not going to be a Bay replacement and neither will Ryan Kalish (whose projection I now notice is missing and I will add), so the team's going to have to be creative. Luckily, the team tends to be creative.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Kevin Youkilis 1b 31 .282 .384 .491 137 507 84 143 30 2 24 83 74 120 5 3 127 Jason Bay lf 31 .268 .368 .507 146 537 103 144 26 3 32 110 81 153 10 2 126 David Ortiz* dh 34 .260 .366 .507 127 473 74 123 28 1 29 86 79 107 1 1 126 Victor Martinez# c 31 .297 .369 .470 125 481 58 143 30 1 17 73 54 66 0 0 118 J.D. Drew* rf 34 .264 .381 .459 120 405 70 107 22 3 17 57 75 99 3 3 119 Dustin Pedroia 2b 26 .306 .372 .451 148 594 97 182 40 2 14 65 59 47 16 4 114 Casey Kotchman* 1b 27 .280 .348 .430 123 407 49 114 26 1 11 58 39 45 1 1 102 Mike Lowell 3b 36 .282 .335 .453 114 433 51 122 24 1 16 68 36 61 2 1 104 Chris Carter* 1b 27 .281 .335 .429 130 501 56 141 27 1 15 67 40 82 1 0 98 Jacoby Ellsbury* cf 26 .290 .344 .398 143 580 86 168 23 8 8 51 43 75 53 10 94 Jeff Bailey 1b 31 .258 .345 .415 108 388 53 100 18 2 13 43 45 92 3 2 98 Rocco Baldelli rf 28 .261 .323 .453 66 203 30 53 10 1 9 30 15 51 3 1 100 George Kottaras* c 27 .239 .316 .382 86 280 33 67 17 1 7 31 32 73 0 0 82 Jason Varitek# c 38 .220 .323 .370 106 354 35 78 15 1 12 41 51 102 0 1 81 Jed Lowrie# ss 26 .247 .318 .372 100 352 41 87 22 2 6 42 38 78 2 1 80 Jon van Every* cf 30 .226 .301 .393 74 239 29 54 9 2 9 27 24 94 3 2 80 Mark Wagner c 26 .250 .308 .363 96 372 35 93 24 0 6 44 30 71 1 1 75 Aaron Bates 1b 26 .244 .313 .344 124 479 50 117 22 1 8 48 37 122 1 0 72 Joey Gathright* cf 29 .272 .339 .321 120 368 58 100 11 2 1 28 32 57 21 9 75 Angel Chavez 3b 28 .269 .301 .372 124 465 48 125 25 1 7 48 20 65 5 3 75 Josh Reddick* cf 23 .248 .295 .386 116 448 49 111 19 5 11 44 30 103 7 4 77 Travis Denker 2b 24 .244 .312 .345 122 426 47 104 24 2 5 43 41 89 4 2 72 Carlos Maldonado c 31 .247 .311 .353 49 150 15 37 7 0 3 22 14 31 0 0 74 Dusty Brown c 27 .244 .310 .343 88 315 26 77 14 1 5 31 29 80 0 0 71 Ivan Ochoa# ss 27 .252 .320 .338 82 266 36 67 10 2 3 19 22 55 11 4 73 Nick Green ss 31 .241 .294 .377 106 332 35 80 16 1 9 36 21 87 2 4 74 Brian Anderson cf 28 .238 .301 .372 111 282 35 67 15 1 7 26 23 77 4 5 75 Sea Bass Gonzalez ss 33 .245 .289 .367 107 376 45 92 20 1 8 45 21 72 1 1 70 Yamaico Navarro ss 22 .247 .293 .352 95 381 37 94 18 2 6 38 23 85 5 5 68 Lars Anderson* 1b 22 .227 .299 .326 126 494 47 112 23 1 8 48 51 138 1 0 64 Gil Velazquez ss 30 .245 .287 .344 97 302 35 74 14 2 4 27 17 59 3 2 65 Chris Woodward ss 34 .243 .301 .321 87 243 26 59 11 1 2 22 19 49 2 1 63 Luis Exposito c 23 .239 .279 .351 105 419 34 100 21 1 8 44 21 103 2 2 64 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Youkilis Av/62 Fr/87 Bay Pr/92 Ortiz* Pr/130 Martinez# Fr Fr/100 Drew* Vg/101 Pedroia Vg/78 Kotchman* Av/59 Lowell Av/91 Carter* Pr/146 Pr/108 Pr/137 Ellsbury* Vg/44 Av/94 Vg/44 Bailey Av/130 Fr/166 Fr/166 Baldelli Av/105 Av/118 Av/105 Kottaras* Fr Varitek# Pr Lowrie# Av/108 Av/108 Av/108 van Every* Av/75 Fr/75 Av/75 Wagner Vg Bates Av/129 Av/206 Gathright* Vg/94 Vg/89 Chavez Fr/120 Av/93 Fr/101 Reddick* Av/121 Fr/173 Av/143 Denker Av/137 Av/121 Maldonado Av Brown Fr Ochoa# Vg/167 Fr/121 Green Fr/116 Fr/120 Fr/130 Fr/120 Pr/120 Fr/120 Anderson Vg/87 Av/87 Vg/87 Gonzalez Av/100 Navarro Av/140 Av/140 Av/140 Anderson* Fr/132 Velazquez Vg/114 Fr/114 Vg/114 Fr/94 Av/114 Woodward Vg/136 Av/136 Vg/136 Av/91 Av/100 Av/100 Exposito Fr * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 YoukilisKevin 1B 26% 41% 21% 10% 2% HodgesGil LeeDerrek SalmonTim BayJason LF 38% 31% 17% 10% 3% AllisonBob KinerRalph BondsBobby OrtizDavid DH 24% 37% 21% 13% 4% NicholsonBill EvansDwight OglivieBen PedroiaDustin 2B 60% 20% 12% 6% 1% HuntRon CashDave HermanBilly MartinezVictor C 57% 31% 9% 4% 0% BatteyEarl DavisSpud LollarSherm DrewJ.D. RF 22% 35% 20% 15% 8% MurcerBobby GilesBrian YastrzemskiCarl EllsburyJacoby CF 26% 31% 30% 11% 2% LawRudy FinleySteve RiversMickey LowellMike 3B 7% 23% 31% 27% 12% RobinsonBrooks BooneRay BoyerKen KotchmanCasey 1B 2% 8% 14% 43% 34% GrimmCharlie LeachRick BurnhamGary CarterChris RF 3% 9% 14% 28% 45% CromartieWarren HallMel MayDerrick BaldelliRocco RF 4% 10% 13% 28% 44% MontgomeryRay GrieveTom BowensSam BaileyJeff 1B 2% 7% 12% 36% 42% TolmanTim MorganEd ConineJeff KottarasGeorge C 1% 7% 20% 41% 31% LaforestPete HattebergScott SchneiderBrian LowrieJed SS 1% 6% 22% 37% 33% RiggsEric StillwellKurt NicholsonKevin GathrightJoey CF 0% 0% 3% 20% 77% TynerJason ThompsonMilt ManningRick ChavezAngel 3B 0% 1% 3% 8% 89% DuganJoe KaskoEddie RodriguezVic van EveryJonathan CF 1% 2% 7% 20% 69% MapesCliff RosenthalLarry RobersonKevin VaritekJason C 2% 9% 17% 33% 39% WhittERnie TebbettsBirdie ReedJeff ReddickJosh CF 0% 0% 4% 19% 76% BostonDaryl LongTerrence PieFelix OchoaIvan SS 1% 2% 11% 35% 51% CabreraJolbert WilsonBrandon PatekFreddie WagnerMark C 0% 2% 7% 32% 59% BatheBill MaldonadoCarlos FordyceBrook MaldonadoCarlos C 0% 1% 4% 26% 68% SwiftBob TillmanBob WebsterLenny BatesAaron 1B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% CarpenterGlenn DavisTommy HarveyKen DenkerTravis 2B 0% 0% 1% 9% 90% GarrisonWebster FordHod WotusRon BrownDusty C 0% 1% 3% 23% 73% ParrishDave EspinoJuan LiddleSteven GonzalezAlex SS 1% 3% 9% 22% 65% CastroJuan SuderPete MartinBilly GreenNick SS 0% 2% 9% 23% 66% GagneGreg AguayoLuis AlfaroJesus AndersonBrian CF 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% BufordDamon SandersAnthony HollinsDamon NavarroYamaico SS 0% 0% 2% 12% 86% MorseMike SalazarOscar MontanezLuis VelazquezGil SS 0% 1% 2% 9% 87% GarciaCarlos HalterShane Lo DucaPaul WoodwardChris SS 0% 0% 3% 13% 84% ClaytonRoyce GerberWally BelangerMark AndersonLars 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% DuncanChris LeachNick NelsonBrad ExpositoLuis C 0% 0% 0% 6% 93% DiazMike CotaHumbertoRodriguezGuillermo Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB YoukilisKevin 25% 62% 42% 22% 3% 0% 23% 0% BayJason 16% 38% 42% 24% 3% 0% 51% 0% OrtizDavid 8% 42% 52% 21% 2% 0% 39% 0% PedroiaDustin 59% 46% 15% 7% 29% 0% 2% 1% MartinezVictor 41% 43% 21% 10% 3% 0% 6% 0% DrewJ.D. 14% 59% 21% 13% 0% 6% 2% 0% EllsburyJacoby 33% 8% 0% 0% 0% 21% 0% 98% LowellMike 23% 8% 12% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% KotchmanCasey 21% 16% 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% CarterChris 25% 5% 6% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% BaldelliRocco 12% 6% 20% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% BaileyJeff 10% 15% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% KottarasGeorge 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LowrieJed 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GathrightJoey 14% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% ChavezAngel 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% van EveryJonathan 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% VaritekJason 0% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ReddickJosh 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% OchoaIvan 6% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WagnerMark 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MaldonadoCarlos 8% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BatesAaron 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DenkerTravis 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BrownDusty 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GonzalezAlex 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GreenNick 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AndersonBrian 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NavarroYamaico 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% VelazquezGil 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WoodwardChris 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AndersonLars 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ExpositoLuis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Josh Beckett 30 3.96 15 9 32 32 206.2 202 91 22 44 194 119 Jon Lester* 26 4.00 13 8 33 33 200.1 200 89 19 64 175 118 Clay Buchholz 25 4.46 11 8 31 30 161.1 165 80 16 60 123 106 Daisuke Matsuzaka 29 4.62 10 8 25 25 136.1 139 70 16 61 121 103 Tim Wakefield 43 4.75 11 10 26 26 153.1 161 81 19 52 87 100 Michael Bowden 23 5.11 6 7 30 26 135.2 154 77 16 50 77 92 Paul Byrd 39 5.25 6 7 18 18 108.0 136 63 17 24 48 90 Junichi Tazawa 24 5.51 10 12 27 25 130.2 164 80 17 41 79 85 Devern Hansack 32 5.56 5 6 19 16 90.2 103 56 14 31 53 85 Adam Mills 25 5.63 8 11 27 27 139.0 183 87 17 36 58 84 Felix Doubront* 22 5.86 7 11 27 27 118.1 147 77 16 55 70 81 Charlie Zink 30 6.34 7 13 27 25 137.2 169 97 17 79 47 74 Kris Johnson* 25 6.44 7 12 27 27 123.0 163 88 15 62 58 74 Enrique Gonzalez 27 6.48 6 11 31 21 126.1 169 91 20 62 65 73 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Jon Papelbon 29 2.85 4 1 66 0 66.1 55 21 6 18 78 166 Takashi Saito 40 3.40 4 2 52 0 50.1 46 19 5 19 48 139 Billy Wagner* 38 3.57 1 1 37 0 35.1 31 14 4 12 38 136 Hideki Okajima* 34 3.58 4 2 65 0 60.1 56 24 7 20 54 130 Ramon Ramirez 28 4.11 5 3 68 0 65.2 63 30 6 29 54 115 Manny Delcarmen 28 4.13 3 2 70 0 69.2 67 32 6 31 59 113 Daniel Bard 25 4.24 3 2 56 0 68.0 59 32 7 31 77 111 Javier Lopez* 32 4.85 2 2 62 0 52.0 59 28 5 23 28 96 Fernando Cabrera 28 5.07 2 2 42 0 49.2 53 28 6 29 44 92 Dustin Richardson* 26 5.09 2 2 47 0 69.0 69 39 6 48 63 93 Randor Bierd 26 5.12 2 2 34 5 58.0 66 33 7 24 40 92 Hunter Jones* 26 5.24 2 3 31 0 46.1 53 27 5 20 29 91 Marcus McBeth 29 5.47 2 3 44 0 51.0 56 31 7 25 36 86 Billy Traber* 30 5.71 4 6 46 5 75.2 97 48 10 26 35 82 Richard Lentz 25 6.17 2 3 40 0 54.0 56 37 6 50 48 77 Jose Vaquedano 28 6.34 2 4 42 0 59.2 73 42 8 38 27 74 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 PapelbonJonathan RP 92% 7% 0% GagneEric FingersRollie HenkeTom SaitoTakashi RP 73% 23% 3% PaigeSatchel AndersenLarry WilhelmHoyt WagnerBilly RP 59% 34% 6% RemlingerMike McGrawTug CookDennis OkajimaHideki RP 58% 37% 5% LavelleGary EmbreeAlan RhodesArthur BeckettJosh SP 74% 25% 1% SchillingCurt VazquezJavier HarangAaron LesterJon SP 72% 28% 1% SwindellGreg SabathiaC.C. BurnsBritt RamirezRamon RP 35% 54% 11% SelmaDick CarrascoHector WilliamsFrank DelcarmenManny RP 33% 53% 14% SelmaDick CarrascoHector WilliamsFrank BardDaniel RP 30% 55% 15% SotoMario BedrosianSteve JacksonMike BuchholzClay SP 44% 51% 5% ArmstrongJack MathisRon WittMike MatsuzakaDaisuke SP 37% 54% 10% DeLeonJose SchmidtJason GardnerMark WakefieldTim SP 33% 50% 17% HershiserOrel MorganMike ForschKen LopezJavier RP 14% 42% 44% MirabellaPaul EarleyArnold SchoeneweisScott RichardsonDustin RP 6% 44% 50% FuentesBrian AlmanzaArmando ReyesDennys BowdenMichael SP 11% 59% 30% NagyCharles JonesJimmy BurdickStacey BierdRandor RP 7% 43% 50% FrohwirthTodd PichardoHipolito GardnerLee CabreraFernando RP 6% 40% 54% VasquezJorge WilliamsFrank BestKarl JonesHunter RP 7% 36% 57% HorsmanVince MoloneyBill McDillAllen ByrdPaul SP 17% 43% 40% KremerRay AlexanderDoyle BunningJim McBethMarcus RP 3% 28% 69% DorseyJim HarvilleChad BatemanJoe TazawaJunichi SP 3% 44% 52% GermanoJustin RamirezElizardo SonnanstineAndy HansackDevern SP 5% 37% 58% BaldwinJames RodriguezNerio JonesBobby MillsAdam SP 2% 36% 62% ColemanJoe WiseRick TelghederDave TraberBilly RP 3% 24% 73% OvermireStubby KeyChris HortonRicky DoubrontFelix SP 1% 24% 75% BresterJason BorrellDanny GoslingMike LentzRichard RP 1% 10% 89% SadlerBilly PimentelRafael KayeJustin ZinkCharlie SP 0% 9% 91% FowlerDick JeffersonJesse BlackDon VaquedanoJose RP 1% 8% 91% ArnoldJamie McLearyMarty BumsteadMike JohnsonKristofer SP 0% 7% 93% WhislerWes RichardJ.R. ChapmanJake GonzalezEnrique SP 0% 6% 94% CallawayMickey FarnsworthJeff JacksonSteven Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 PapelbonJonathan 92% 100% 98% 30% 75% SaitoTakashi 66% 95% 63% 6% 78% WagnerBilly 59% 90% 86% 16% 70% OkajimaHideki 51% 91% 55% 8% 65% BeckettJosh 31% 93% 66% 62% 65% LesterJon 27% 93% 42% 5% 73% RamirezRamon 29% 81% 23% 1% 70% DelcarmenManny 27% 78% 34% 0% 84% BardDaniel 24% 80% 95% 0% 69% BuchholzClay 9% 73% 8% 0% 71% WakefieldTim 9% 59% 0% 23% 47% MatsuzakaDaisuke 8% 65% 45% 0% 47% LopezJavier 14% 49% 1% 2% 79% RichardsonDustin 4% 37% 54% 0% 84% BowdenMichael 1% 29% 0% 1% 48% BierdRandor 5% 36% 3% 1% 53% CabreraFernando 6% 38% 43% 0% 61% JonesHunter 5% 36% 1% 1% 61% ByrdPaul 4% 31% 0% 58% 27% McBethMarcus 2% 19% 5% 0% 39% TazawaJunichi 0% 15% 0% 5% 36% HansackDevern 0% 13% 0% 3% 18% MillsAdam 0% 9% 0% 25% 38% TraberBilly 2% 19% 0% 7% 38% DoubrontFelix 0% 6% 0% 0% 31% LentzRichard 0% 8% 43% 0% 57% ZinkCharlie 0% 2% 0% 0% 44% VaquedanoJose 0% 5% 0% 0% 41% JohnsonKristofer 0% 1% 0% 0% 44% GonzalezEnrique 0% 1% 0% 0% 13% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ VaritekJason .252 .339 .424 1709 5673 699 1427 327 17 206 809 708 1375 25 22 95 KotchmanCasey .270 .338 .409 1235 4049 471 1093 243 11 99 561 382 433 17 14 95 LowellMike .278 .339 .462 2086 7714 985 2143 495 13 300 1250 706 1075 39 21 108 PedroiaDustin .292 .359 .426 2347 9380 1502 2742 586 25 207 936 932 777 225 63 104 YoukilisKevin .277 .377 .466 1675 6096 989 1688 374 24 244 944 867 1411 50 38 118 BayJason .263 .361 .486 1889 6886 1211 1810 354 38 369 1284 1011 1971 128 27 119 DrewJ.D. .272 .383 .479 1988 6618 1210 1797 353 61 299 977 1163 1516 98 54 122 EllsburyJacoby .284 .339 .388 1716 6888 1027 1957 268 80 95 587 526 905 541 117 89 OrtizDavid .269 .368 .521 2177 7881 1290 2119 529 20 472 1515 1239 1728 15 13 127 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ BeckettJosh 220 162 0 4.13 496 495 3133 3040 363 829 2929 112 ByrdPaul 123 111 0 4.52 385 296 1929 2154 283 454 1028 102 LesterJon 201 133 0 4.15 526 521 3136 3137 344 1096 2822 114 MatsuzakaDaisuk 109 96 0 4.64 272 272 1508 1517 190 710 1372 102 PapelbonJonatha 48 25 490 2.83 951 3 975 813 92 275 1130 155 WagnerBilly 45 41 443 2.57 917 0 960 683 91 324 1230 168 WakefieldTim 200 171 22 4.35 587 446 3079 2990 391 1172 2064 108 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
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my salary cap will be in the area of 130 million, so the cash isn't gonna be a problem. his talent would be the only issue.
I would say that if you could get him at that, it would be a steal. I don't see any reason he can't be at least a solid #4SP, and those fetch $4-5M/year in my league. That said, if your league is anything like mine (mirrors MLB, 30 teams, etc), there's not a chance you get him at that price.
...
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......Barry Bonds.
His career line is better than this across the board, yet the system expects him to regress, a year or so before his peak?
The top OPS+ numbers should be troubling-not that the Sox can't win with 6 guys being above 110 (they can), but you have to expect some dropoffs here and there (Law of Competitive Balance and all that), such that it is a bit more comforting to have a truly elite hitter (still in his prime) in there who can carry the team. 4 of them were above 130 last year, but with the top ones in the projection maxed out around 127, they'll need someone else to pick up the slack, but I'm not sure who (VMart as the mostly full-time C will help of course).
Lester has had a ~3.30 ERA the past two years, and the K rate in '09 was no fluke, so yeah.
on ERA or ERA+ ?
i've got a ton of cheap top end pitching right now, and i'm looking to put a hurt on everyone in my league by running out a lineup that's indestructable, with a rotation featuring edwin jackson, wandy rodriguez, shaun marcum, justin masterson, clayton richard, plus a guy like tazawa, and some veteran placeholders, most likely in the form of two of jarrod washburn, tim hudson, ryan dempster, nick blackburn, or one other name that i'm keeping to myself.
Papi's career projections-he might be an interesting HoF candidate if he gets to those numbers, but I don't think he'll make it.
Obviously SS is still an issue. Another big issue is whether to try to extend Martinez now (another possibility for the post-Ortiz DH) or wait. And it never ceases to amaze just how quickly starting pitching depth can disappear. It's still OK -- solid top 5, Bowden is a good #6, I suppose Bard could be moved into the rotation if need be. Will we see a repeat of them signing every injured starter on the market?
Edit: Is Ellsbury the new Dave Collins?
And they still need to have a better plan to address the gaping chest wound at SS than "Lowrie will be OK this season, we're sure of it!"
Didn't notice that - I better check that again just to be safe.
-- MWE
On the plus side for Bay, Fenway's not the greatest park for him to take advantage of his assets. It's rosier outside of Fenway, but being generous and calling Bay 8 runs a year below average defensively, ZiPS has him dropping to a below-average LF by the 4th year.
ZiPS! :-)
Quite a lot of leagues are using the yearly ZiPS Projection Disk for DMB 9.0, especially now that it's the only game in town (DMB didn't do one last year). I'd probably do one for OOTP, too, but I don't own the game and I don't have any connections with the developers.
Long-term projections are based on the assumption that the player stays on his current team.
I was going to say the exact opposite. I'm looking for Lester, at least ERA+-wise, to compete with Hernandez, Greinke and Halladay at the top of the league.
I agreed. His ERA is going to be well below 4.
Can you live with a platoon? They've already added "Wow, Iglesias's glove is excellent; maybe he could be ready next year."
Markus Heinsohn is incredibly approachable.
He makes great plays, but watch the routes he takes sometimes. I don't think he's as bad as his defensive numbers this year, but he's also not a gold glover in CF, at least not right now. "Average" seems like the right ballpark for him.
Re his D, I believe the numbers are accurate. He's great going to his left and right, but has trouble on balls over his head and as a result played too deeply, which made his already bad-looking performance on balls hit in front of him (same problem getting a good read and jump as balls hit over his head) just brutal statistically. He also had serious problems early in the year on balls hit near the wall, but made a lot of progress on that during the season. He just needs more reps reading the ball off MLB bats, and there's every reason to think he can be a league average defender this year and a plus one, commensurate with his obvious tools, after that.
I believe the standard stats line is that these splits have no added predictive value vs. the full year statistics.
Maybe someone has another spin on it, but I just haven't found anything significant.
What do you think?
Any thoughts on Ryan Kalish, Robert Manual and Jeremy Hermida??
Greg Gagne had nothing on Brian Christopher, Erik Watts, or that really skinny Von Erich.
Getting back on point, the Red Sox really do seem to prefer high contact hitters. Perhaps in absence of a bopper, they're going to try to get 'em on, get 'em over, and get 'em in?
Was Ramon Ramirez checked again? Just looking at his Baseball Reference page...he has a ERA+ of 138, including 165 the last two seasons, with just a glitch in 2007(17 ip for the Rockies). 115 doesn't seem to do him much justice here. Is that a mistake, or are there reasons?
His peripherals last year didn't support that ERA - I'm guessing that's the issue.
I get that, and I wasn't expecting to see another 165 up there, but just didn't think it'd be 50 points lower. But even looking at his career work, he has a 3.66 FIP and 138 ERA+ That's a quick decline for a 28/29 year old who's peripherals were still average or better last year..
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