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CF Byrd
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot
C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF Johnson
2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF Ford-Griffin
SP Zambrano
SP Dempster
SP Lilly
SP Wells
SP Gorzelanny
CL Marmol
RP Guzman
RP Grabow
RP Marshall
RP Gregg
RP Stevens
You have to think they're going to try to play Carlos Silva as well.
I think Hendry will find a way to put him on the DL - some sort of phantom pitching injury like strained talent. It's what Hendry is good at.
Also, So Taguchi has an ODDIBE, but he doesn't have a projection line. And Theriot's missing his defensive projection.
I didn't know that John-Ford was still playing. I remember hearing reports of his power in the minors, and I got to see one of his two MLB home runs. That being said, looking back on his minors numbers, I'm not surprised that he never amounted to anything.
That's an odd trio for Soto.
Actually, Hoffpauir's comp is Frank Thomas the Lesser.
The extra Lilly is fixed - the better one was from when I messed up a macro and I forgot to delete it.
I don't see Aramis getting much HOF love. He'd need some kind of hook. That career line, OPS+ of 113 and 402 HRs, looks kind of like Graig Nettles - 390 HR, 110 OPS+, except that Nettles won 2 Gold Gloves and probably deserved 4-5 more. Nettles is a borderline HOMer (helped tremendously by the strength of his defense) who got no traction at all in HOF voting, despite having played in New York with two World Series rings.
Aramis, on the other hand, is regarded as an average fielder at best and probably below average. He'd need to do something like win both a regular-season and World Series MVP in the year that the Cubs finally win the World Series in addition to hitting 400 career HRs to have any chance of getting attention in Hall-of-Fame voting.
But still a fine hitter.
There was a recent thread about a player quiting baseball to become a priest. Frank did the opposite: Thomas studied for the priesthood in the Roman Catholic Church from 1941 through 1946. And no, he was too young to be avoiding the draft.
That happened last year. I believe he is going back to Japan in 2010 though.
I will take the under on Lilly and the over on Soto.
Don Geovany is headed for a huge bounceback year.
Cub fans have made this comment many times.
Being a good fanboy, though, I'll take the over on Z.
No, his defense is just off the charts!
I'm glad to see ZiPS likes Wells so much ... though given how much ZiPS likes Gorzelanny I may have to switch over to the jfish camp. :-)
Interesting that you rate Blanco's defense as average -- most Cub fans raved about it.
CF Byrd
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot
C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF Johnson
2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF Ford-Griffin
Nobody carries just 11 pitchers anymore (at least not for long). No Ford-Griffin. Somebody will take the Johnson role. Baker and Fontenot will presumably pretty much platoon with Baker playing the DeRosa role. I'd say there's still some small chance Hofpauir doesn't make the team but only if they (a) sign a decent-hitting LHB backup for Byrd (in place of Johnson) and then it will depend on who else is in camp.
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot
C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF
JohnsonFuld2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF
Ford-GriffinColvinThis is probably more what it looks like, though the above poster is right in that the Cubs will likely break camp with 12 pitchers, so no Tyler Colvin (thankfully)
I figure if poor Chad Fox can brave his 6 yearly arm surgeries to get onto the field for a dozen innings, the least I can do is give the guy a projection. I mean, he's had like 2 healthy years in the last 15. Even Steve Ontiveros might have sympathy.
Yeah, ODDIBE's based on 7 innings, so it's super-wacky. As a result, he's the only pitcher I've projected that has a reasonable shot at a 0 ERA.
On bench construction, the Cubs are in a very minor pickle. Or not even pickle, just sub-optimal. You want LH backup for Lee, Soriano and Byrd; RH backup (even platoon) for Fukudome and a platoon at 2B (or just Fontenot to the bench and Baker full-time). Alas the number of useful LH 1B/LF/CF is probably currently zero (no, I don't want Kotsay or Erstad ... and I assume Edmonds is done) ... but I can't believe the Cubs want Kosuke to be full-time. (OK, they want him to be full-time but I think they recognize he's not a good option against LHP.) If you put Baker in RF against LHP, that leaves Fontenot at 2B or a platoon with Blanco -- neither of those work offensively.
The Cubs as is have a reasonable amount of flexibility so it's not a major issue, but I'd rather see a RHB who can handle CF as a backup and platoon with Kosuke than Fuld. Johnson might be good enough but isn't exactly the bat you want in RF. I have no idea who else I would want though.
Didn't know that about Thomas, but Max Carey was another player who was studying for the priesthood in seminary school before turning to professional baseball.
On Fuku vs. LHP -- the average OPS split for a LHB is 15% (if I remember my MGL correctly), his so far is 18%. Yes, a small sample size but his NPB platoon ratio would have to fantastic for me to regress his projected splits to substantially better than league average. His "good" year last year was largely a function of being platooned (8:1 PA platoon advantage). Ideally one of Fuld/Hoff would be replaced by a RHB. Not a huge deal -- any day's lineup almost always has a hole or two and Kosuke will bring his defense every day.
I thought your post from last year on how the Cardinals/LaRussa effectively man a 35-man roster with ten of those guys stocked in AAA, with full anticipation that they'll make it up to the ML roster and contribute at some point during the season, was a pretty fascinating look at roster construction. And it's probably something a good amount of otherwise well-run teams are missing out on.
Cubs signed Nady today, so he takes the "JF Griffin" role. I think that means the OF is set (and probably no Fuld, although he's the guy on the Iowa shuttle this year), and it makes Fukudome the backup CF. Not ideal. I'm underwhelmed by this roster, but don't have to squint too hard to see a bunch of lucky breaks turning this group into a contender. It's all completely downhill after this season though.
Dan if you had done this earlier you might have prevented an auto theft. Nobody would willfully claim that projection.
Ryan asked (and got) the Cubs to release him back in August. Apparently he was disappointed that his velocity wasn't returning. Methinks he will sit at home and just collect on the 15M or whatever the #### the Jays still owe him.
There are TWO "Hoffpauirs"? Please tell me they're related. I think you have my analysis of the Cubs' problem absolutely correct. The problem isn't that the manager can't see that he has a roster hole and he needs to bring up whoever is doing best at the position in AAA. The problem is that the organization does not focus on stocking said AAA roster with enough AAAA players. I hadn't noticed that the AAA roster does have pitching, because I wasn't trying to analyze the Cubs in detail (not qualified, with the likes of Walt Davis in the house). Thanks for the info. And Good Luck to the Cubs. I hope you guys finish a nice solid second and get the Wild Card. (Well, what more can you ask from a Cards' fan?)
Nope, Micah and Jarrett aren't related, but each did have a sibling in pro baseball, Brad and Josh, respectively.
20 games under .500
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