At this rate, all teams will be projected before the end of the World Series!

Thanks for the effort, Dan.

It's interesting that, even though ZiPS doesn't hate the White Sox starters, it predicts them all to regress (and Floyd and Peavy to regress considerably).

It's also worth noting that Alex Rios seemed to break out of his horrible slump in the last two weeks of the season. I'll make a bold prediction and say that he won't hurt the White Sox in 2010.

...he won't hurt the White Sox in 2010.

Is that what $10m is supposed to buy these days? Wow, is the bar really set that low for Rios?

I'm not trying to be harsh or even guess what he'll do next year. Mostly I stand in awe of Kenny Williams. That guy has balls as big as church bells to make some of the moves he has. Rios looked shaky in TOR, and the rumors that came out after the deal had to be available to Kenny beforehand, and yet he throws down for the guy at retail.

I used to laugh when he did some of the goofy moves, but over the years his outcomes have outpaced my expectations so I've stopped snarking. (Peavy looks like he's recovering as expected, but that Rios contract, man, church bells.)

Long-term, should they leave Beckham at 3B, or move him to 2B/SS and try and pick up another corner bat?

Long-term, should they leave Beckham at 3B, or move him to 2B/SS and try and pick up another corner bat?

I think you always push a guy as far "up" the defensive spectrum you can without exposing him, unless he gets injured at the tougher positions.

A couple of quick thoughts...

- ZiPS still doesn't like Floyd very much. It apparently doesn't buy the jump in his K-rate (7.6/9 this year versus a career average of ~6.5 coming into the year, although I'm not sure how relevant Floyd's Philly stats are on what he'll do in 2010).

- I certainly hope that Gordon Beckham is more Chet Lemon than Darnell Coles or Edwin Encarnacion.

- I'm pretty underwhelmed by that Tyler Flowers projection. He spent (most of) the season at Birmingham (a notorious pitcher's park) and had an OPS near 1.000. Does ZiPS think the k-rate is that debilitating?

- The rotation excites the hell out of me. I'd take the over on the Buehrle, Danks and Floyd projections. I'd be very happy if Peavy finished with those numbers (although I'm expecting a much higher IP total). Garcia as a fifth starter appears to be perfectly acceptable and having Hudson waiting in the wings is nice.

Dan -- do you have a projection for CJ Retherford? As always, these are much appreciated, especially getting 'em out this early.

oh, reverse order of team names. I was hoping for something creative this time around. :-)

On Beckham, 3B and 2B are pretty much the same spot on the defensive spectrum and it really depends on Beckham's mix of arm vs. range as to which he'd be better at. And 3B are "corner bats" in only the technical sense, they hit more like CF than 1B/LF/RF. The question normally would be whether he can handle short but the White Sox already have a pretty good SS ... unless he's moving to CF.

Anyway, a team in a position somewhat similar to where they were last offseason. Dye's an FA right? I'll guess that Rios moves back to RF. They have holes at DH, 2B (or 3B if they move Beckham), and CF while last year they had holes at 3B, 2B and CF. Abreu would look pretty good on this team (some DH, some RF with Rios sliding over). Branyan too though he doesn't seem like the Sox type of player. If they grabbed either of those two, Nady might not be a bad addition. Cameron would be a nice pickup.

The last few years, Williams has sort of specialized in the post-injury/"disappointment" end of the market (Dye, Thome, Quentin, Rios, Pierzynski ... OK, he's just annoying). Who, besides Nady, is on that end of the market this offseason? I could see him grabbing Upton from the Rays -- depends on whether they buy the "lazy" label. Burrell certainly is down here. Kelly Johnson? Felipe Lopez? Chris Young?

Lopez is on the annoying list. At least he seems to annoy teams a lot (6 teams in 4 years).

Is that what $10m is supposed to buy these days? Wow, is the bar really set that low for Rios?

I assumed he meant that Rios won't hurt the team payroll-wise; that he'll be more or less worth his contract when considering offense and defense. I could be wrong.

Rios is definitely slated for CF. Kenny and Ozzie have repeatedly said he's the CF next year. The only reason he occasionally played RF this year is they didn't want Quentin or Pods playing RF after not getting any reps there all year. So when those 3 played they went Pods CF, Q LF, Rios RF. With Dye gone, I believe they will start either Quentin or whoever the other OF is in RF and leave them there with Rios in CF. In CF if he rebounds as ZIPS projects thats around a 3 WAR player (with above average d in CF as he has in the past). So if he does that he'll be worth his contract.

I assumed he meant that Rios won't hurt the team payroll-wise; that he'll be more or less worth his contract when considering offense and defense. I could be wrong.

Yes. If he hits as ZiPS projects (and I think he will) and plays plus defense in center, he'll earn his money next year.

I imagine the outfield will be Podsednik in left, Rios in center, and some combination of Quentin, Wise, Kotsay, or whoever else they pick up off the scrap heap in right. As Dan suggests, there's not a whole lot of room for improvement, and the Sox have pretty much made their bed alread in terms of 2010 payroll. As much as I'd like to see it, they're not adding Chone Figgins or Bobby Abreu - Williams already made his big moves for 2010 when he added Peavy and Rios.

Love the rotation, hate the lineup. Only two players above a .340 OBP, and one of them (Quentin) has had major problems staying healthy in his brief career, including a foot problem that might be chronic. Abreu would give them a huge boost offensively, but Dewey's right, that's going to be a serious payroll stretch given their recent acquisitions. Bringing Thome back on a one-year deal, if the price is right, might be a sensible move.

Lopez is on the annoying list. At least he seems to annoy teams a lot (6 teams in 4 years).

Many moons ago, whene the Jays traded Lopez away, there were rumors that it was at least partially because he'd been introduced to the party life by Raul Mondesi, and taken to it like a fish to water.

If he's still living that lifestyle, I can see it being a major source of annoyance to his teams.

Bringing Thome back on a one-year deal, if the price is right, might be a sensible move.

I'd like to see that as well, but the team is talking about a rotating DH for 2010, using it primarily to try and keep Podsednik and Quentin healthy, and to spell Konerko.

Agree with the love the rotation, hate the lineup people. However, I think Dye is perfect for the DH role, as his defensive injuries always seem to be followed by a long slump. I think he hits .280 with 35+ HR's for whichever team takes a chance and puts him at DH. The key to the 2010's lineup is obviously a healthy Carlos Quentin. If he comes into camp ready to go, I think the Sox win 90+ games and the division due to their excellent pitching staff. If the Brewers want to part with Prince Fielder for Floyd + ????, Williams should jump on that...as Konerko is obviously well past his prime

Hey White Sox fans, got a question for you.

On USSMariner, Dave Cameron is suggesting the M's should trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe and Jason Vargas for John Danks.

I said I though the trade was ridiculous; Kenny Williams would laugh then hangup. He defends the trade as fair.

What do you guys think?

I think it is ridiculous. I don't see why (a) the Sox would feel the need to deal Danks; and (b) why the Sox would be so eager to get Jose Lopez. There are some decent 2B on the free agent market, and a few that will be available in trades that won't require Danks, and I don't think Lopez/Vargas/Lowe is anywhere near worth what Danks is worth. As one of the commenters noted, it seems like a sports talk radio "let's trade our spare parts for one really good player" trade proposal.

I think it is ridiculous. I don't see why (a) the Sox would feel the need to deal Danks; and (b) why the Sox would be so eager to get Jose Lopez. There are some decent 2B on the free agent market, and a few that will be available in trades that won't require Danks, and I don't think Lopez/Vargas/Lowe is anywhere near worth what Danks is worth. As one of the commenters noted, it seems like a sports talk radio "let's trade our spare parts for one really good player" trade proposal.

I was that commenter :-)

Dave's abusing me pretty good (as is his way) but I'll give it right back.

I suggested the M's should send King Felix to the Yankees for Cano, Coke and Mitre. It works according to his "math".

Not only is that trade ridiculous, but Kenny Williams shouldn't be trading away starting pitching this winter. He has five viable starting pitchers, one prospect that looks like he might be good, and then nothing.

Dave's abusing me pretty good (as is his way)

Well, it's because you are so abrasive.

Yes, the trade proposal is ridiculous.

Not only is that trade ridiculous, but Kenny Williams shouldn't be trading away starting pitching this winter. He has five viable starting pitchers, one prospect that looks like he might be good, and then nothing.


Looking at the projections again, I'm actually pretty pleased that ZiPS sees Carlos Torres as being a more-than-acceptable depth guy. Barring a trade he'll be the 7th on the SP depth chart (perhaps sixth if they don't want to jerk Hudson around and just want to stick him in the bullpen for the year), which seems about right.

Can we get a projection on Ehren Wassermann? Thanks.

Yeah, ZiPs really doesn't like Floyd.

Even more so, Jenks' regression seems a bit harsh. He got his K rate back up and a spike back near/above normal BABIP hurt his overall line and performance, especially with the long ball toward the end. But considering the benefit of the doubt Rios is getting after his performance...this surprised me.

Jason Botts, please. (Now a Pale Hose farmhand after flubbing his shot in Japan.)

Will Konerko be the worst player with 400 career HR? Right now, that's probably Kingman. Szym projects Konerko to finish with an even lower OPS+, and he doesn't make much up on defense, even against Kingman.



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Will Konerko be the worst player with 400 career HR? Right now, that's probably Kingman

If he gets to 400
right now I have Kong with 1.1 wins over Konerko (by the way I do wins over replacement)
I would think that Konerko, if he lasts to 400 would pass Kong and Kong would remain the worst 400+ Homer guy

But it could be close, a couple 100 OPS+ seasons (which is around where I set replacement level for 1B/Dhs) could net Konerko 400 HRs without letting him gain that 1.1 wins he needs to beat Kong.

Yeah, ZiPs really doesn't like Floyd.

It never has, and yet that doesn't seem to stop Floyd.

2008: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.87; actual ERA = 3.84

2009: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.11; actual ERA = 4.06

2010: ZiPS projected ERA = 4.78

Maybe this has been covered before, but ZiPS really doesn't like Buehrle does it?
Is it his declining k-rate?

It's the fact that any person who conjures a projection system programs it to hate the White Sox.

I'm not sure where to mention this, but the White Sox signed Bobby Jenks ($7.5 million) and Carlos Quentin ($3.2 million) to one-year deals this weekend.

As I write this, they have two arb-eligible players yet unsigned - John Danks and Tony Pena. I hope that Danks gets a multi-year deal, and they go year-to-year with Pena.

Maybe this has been covered before, but ZiPS really doesn't like Buehrle does it?

Most projection systems don't like Buehrle. I think PECOTA had something like a 5 year run of predicting a Buehrle implosion. I think it's that, as you note, he doesn't have a very impressive K-rate, and he also gives up his share of HR. I'm not sure, but I also don't think that most of these systems consider his ability to completely destroy the running game - for his career, base stealers are 40 for 95 against him, and that doesn't include his pickoffs.

for his career, base stealers are 40 for 95 against him, and that doesn't include his pickoffs.

And that probably actually underestimates Buehrle's ability to hold runners - something like 2/3 of his starts have been pitched to either AJ Pierzynski or Sandy Alomar, neither one of whom is a particularly good thrower.

FWIW, Tony Pena ($1.2 million) and John Danks ($3.45 million) have both signed 1-year deals.

Ehren Wassermann is with the Phillies now, for all you Eh-Wass fans out there who wanted to see his projection.

With the signings, I have the 2010 payroll at 101.7 million with four "open" spots (for Beckham, Nix, a backup outfielder, and another reliever).

With the signings, I have the 2010 payroll at 101.7 million with four "open" spots (for Beckham, Nix, a backup outfielder, and another reliever).

A backup outfielder? Isn't that what Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones are?

A backup outfielder? Isn't that what Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones are?

Kotsay is backup 1B.
Jones is backup DH.

Ozzie will make it work. Somehow.

Wow, ZiPS sure likes Hudson. Good. So do I.