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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, October 05, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox
It's hard not to classify the 2009 season as a disappointment as the White Sox really should have been able to compete with two very ordinary teams in the Tigers and Twins. The Pale Hose received excellent pitching, looking even better than the ERA due to a merely adequate defense and a hitter-friendly environment, but the team was sabotaged by an extremely disappointing offense at essentially every position. Podsednik returned and was actually relatively adequate for the first time in years, but when Scott of the Pod People is standing out as a performer, you know you have some issues that need to be addressed.Not a single player in the starting lineup, despite some impressive names, really had an excellent season. Or even a very good one for that matter. Without anyone playing at a star level, the usual bland supporting cast just dragged the team down even farther, with the offense ending up with an unimpressive 90 OPS+ on the season.
I expected Alex Rios to be a good pickup for the Sox and as I noted at the time of the trade, I have a tendency to get every single Kenny Williams move wrong. As such, Rios hit 199/299/301 after the waiver claim. Warning to White Sox fans: I also liked White Flag II, so watch Jim Thome sign DH in the AL and hit 78 home runs in 2010.
On the plus side, the entire rotation is returning and I agree with ZiPS that all 5 starters being average or better is a reasonable bet. The offense does need help though and it's a rather difficult offense to upgrade, given that it was simply mediocre all-around rather than having a couple obvious sore spots. The team should still be competitive with a better Quentin season and no juggernaut competitors in the Central.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Paul Konerko 1b 34 .269 .349 .465 136 499 64 134 27 1 23 73 58 90 1 0 114 Carlos Quentin lf 27 .261 .353 .459 119 418 67 109 24 1 19 69 42 72 4 1 114 Jermaine Dye rf 36 .265 .334 .474 128 479 69 127 26 1 24 70 46 102 2 2 112 Gordon Beckham 3b 23 .267 .334 .450 152 580 80 155 42 2 20 84 52 101 10 4 106 Alexis Rios rf 29 .275 .325 .442 146 579 75 159 35 4 18 70 42 100 22 6 102 Alexei Ramirez ss 28 .288 .333 .427 141 517 65 149 23 2 15 68 36 66 14 7 101 A.J. Pierzynski* c 33 .285 .322 .417 129 480 53 137 25 1 12 47 22 62 1 1 95 Chris Getz* 2b 26 .277 .334 .367 113 412 53 114 19 3 4 35 33 54 18 4 87 Scott Podsednik* lf 34 .279 .336 .384 104 365 51 102 20 3 4 29 29 56 20 8 91 Michael Restovich lf 31 .247 .308 .417 121 441 55 109 23 2 16 52 37 122 1 1 91 Mark Kotsay* 1b 34 .272 .321 .376 84 290 30 79 16 1 4 35 22 33 3 2 85 Ramon Castro c 34 .243 .305 .408 54 152 16 37 7 0 6 24 13 38 0 0 88 Jayson Nix 2b 27 .249 .315 .386 103 342 51 85 18 1 9 42 30 75 13 4 85 Josh Fields 3b 27 .237 .311 .394 117 409 49 97 18 2 14 50 43 128 7 5 86 Tyler Flowers c 24 .234 .319 .369 119 428 53 100 23 1 11 54 49 127 3 3 83 Keith Ginter 2b 34 .246 .319 .349 101 370 35 91 18 1 6 37 34 72 2 2 78 Andy Cannizaro ss 31 .260 .321 .351 77 262 28 68 13 1 3 23 20 36 1 1 79 Wilson Betemit# 3b 28 .232 .290 .391 112 302 34 70 18 0 10 41 25 88 1 0 79 Stefan Gartrell rf 26 .234 .293 .383 116 423 52 99 20 2 13 50 32 125 5 2 78 DeWayne Wise* cf 32 .243 .292 .398 89 226 31 55 11 3 6 19 13 50 10 5 81 John Shelby cf 24 .241 .287 .372 121 481 58 116 27 3 10 49 29 107 22 8 74 Dayan Viciedo 3b 21 .248 .281 .360 138 544 68 135 23 1 12 70 22 115 4 2 69 Cole Armstrong* c 26 .248 .283 .358 85 307 26 76 16 0 6 31 14 69 0 0 69 Brent Lillibridge ss 26 .232 .295 .330 120 427 57 99 18 3 6 39 34 105 24 6 66 Eider Torres# ss 27 .259 .300 .320 108 425 50 110 16 2 2 36 24 67 18 9 65 Justin Knoedler c 29 .228 .271 .360 55 189 27 43 11 1 4 24 11 48 2 0 66 Jordan Danks* cf 23 .215 .287 .321 109 446 62 96 19 2 8 33 43 137 8 4 62 Justin Fuller* ss 26 .234 .301 .341 63 205 30 48 9 2 3 16 17 49 3 7 71 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Konerko Av Av Quentin Fr Fr Dye Pr Beckham Av Av Rios Av Vg Ramirez Av Av Pierzynski* Fr Getz* Av Pr Av Podsednik* Av Fr Restovich Av Av Kotsay* Av Av Pr Av Castro Fr Nix Vg Av Av Av Av Fields Fr Fr Flowers Fr Av Ginter Av Fr Av Cannizaro Fr Fr Pr Betemit# Av Fr Av Pr Gartrell Av Av Wise* Vg Vg Vg Shelby Av Av Av Viciedo Av Fr Armstrong* Fr Lillibridge Av Av Av Torres# Av Fr Knoedler Av Danks* Av Av Fuller* Av Av Av * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 KonerkoPaul 1B 8% 26% 26% 30% 9% DowningBrian ThorntonAndre BaylorDon QuentinCarlos LF 13% 28% 26% 22% 11% MenchKevin LeeCarlos MartinezCarmelo DyeJermaine RF 13% 23% 21% 24% 19% WinfieldDave HickmanJim ParkerDave BeckhamGordon 3B 13% 22% 30% 25% 10% ColesDarnell LemonChet EncarnacionEdwin RiosAlexis RF 10% 21% 19% 23% 27% CowensAl FoxPete EncarnacionJuan RamirezAlexei SS 30% 26% 26% 13% 6% AlleyGene TejadaMiguel LoganJohnny PierzynskiA.J. C 8% 27% 31% 26% 8% FletcherDarrin HarperBrian Lo DucaPaul PodsednikScott LF 2% 8% 10% 19% 59% TovarCesar BrutonBill GladdenDan GetzChristopher 2B 6% 13% 23% 34% 25% RemyJerry WoodardMike KennedyAdam RestovichMike LF 1% 6% 7% 16% 70% SpencerShane CordovaMarty RudiJoe NixJayson 2B 6% 9% 18% 32% 35% MoutonJames MichaelsCass EarlScott CastroRamon C 7% 18% 33% 34% 8% SnyderFrank SantiagoBenito AinsmithEddie KotsayMark 1B 0% 1% 3% 15% 81% BiittnerLarry AdamsGlenn KluszewskiTed FieldsJosh 3B 2% 3% 8% 27% 60% McnallySean PerezEduardo BrubakerBill WiseDewayne CF 1% 2% 8% 29% 60% LittleMark MorenoOmar VarshoGary FlowersTyler C 0% 7% 23% 44% 26% EtchebarrenAndy GibbonsJohn HuberJustin CannizaroAndy SS 1% 3% 12% 36% 48% GomezChris AmaroRuben BlanksLarvell BetemitWilson 3B 0% 0% 2% 16% 82% TatumJim BlowersMike PresleyJim GartrellMaurice RF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% KrauseScott SherrodJustin EvansTerry ShelbyJohn CF 0% 0% 4% 24% 71% MatosLuis LittleMark BufordDamon GinterKeith 2B 0% 2% 6% 19% 72% TrilloManny WarstlerRabbit O'RourkeFrank LillibridgeBrent SS 1% 2% 10% 33% 55% FischlinMike FurmaniakJ.J. LunaHector ArmstrongCole C 0% 0% 2% 22% 76% HoustonTyler GilGeronimo LaFrancoisRoger ViciedoDayan 3B 0% 0% 0% 3% 96% MoronkoJeff CordidoJulio BellRicky KnoedlerJustin C 0% 1% 4% 24% 71% HooverPaul HemsleyRollie RoofPhil TorresEider SS 0% 0% 2% 14% 83% OlmedoRay GriffinAlfredo IzturisCesar DanksJordan CF 0% 0% 0% 4% 96% PaulXavier BernadinaRoger BudzinskiMark FullerJustin SS 0% 1% 1% 2% 97% JohnsonTim SaylorJamie PerezSantiago Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB KonerkoPaul 11% 15% 18% 6% 1% 0% 14% 0% QuentinCarlos 9% 19% 15% 7% 0% 0% 4% 0% DyeJermaine 9% 5% 26% 7% 1% 0% 18% 0% BeckhamGordon 10% 7% 12% 5% 36% 0% 6% 0% RiosAlexis 17% 4% 11% 2% 13% 6% 5% 14% RamirezAlexei 36% 8% 9% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% PierzynskiA.J. 28% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% PodsednikScott 26% 12% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 9% GetzChristopher 19% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% RestovichMike 3% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% NixJayson 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CastroRamon 8% 5% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% KotsayMark 19% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FieldsJosh 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% WiseDewayne 4% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% FlowersTyler 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CannizaroAndy 10% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BetemitWilson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GartrellMaurice 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ShelbyJohn 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% GinterKeith 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LillibridgeBrent 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 18% ArmstrongCole 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ViciedoDayan 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% KnoedlerJustin 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TorresEider 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% DanksJordan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FullerJustin 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MauerJoe 90% 93% 64% 60% 5% 0% 11% 0% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ KonerkoPaul .271 .347 .476 2374 8588 1184 2329 437 13 431 1374 935 1447 10 2 112 DyeJermaine .269 .334 .479 2291 8466 1254 2280 466 30 418 1331 780 1739 52 35 109 QuentinCarlos .250 .343 .444 1442 4989 772 1246 265 14 225 799 507 878 42 17 106 PierzynskiA.J. .282 .321 .415 1979 7139 826 2014 392 22 172 781 319 920 16 22 91 RamirezAlexei .275 .321 .410 1480 5405 663 1488 214 18 160 691 368 729 125 72 92 Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Jake Peavy 29 3.99 12 8 26 26 155.2 143 69 18 59 154 115 John Danks* 25 4.16 13 11 34 34 201.0 201 93 24 72 148 110 Daniel Hudson 23 4.31 11 10 32 28 148.1 150 71 14 57 115 107 Mark Buehrle* 31 4.36 12 12 31 31 200.1 230 96 29 53 106 105 Gavin Floyd 27 4.78 11 12 34 33 201.1 208 107 30 70 142 96 Carlos Torres 27 5.18 6 8 37 17 121.2 132 70 13 70 85 89 Freddy Garcia 34 5.34 3 4 11 11 55.2 63 33 9 19 36 86 Wes Whisler* 27 6.18 7 14 28 26 141.1 186 97 21 66 49 74 Brandon Hynick 25 6.24 7 13 28 28 157.1 194 109 32 52 66 74 Lucas Harrell 25 6.24 4 8 21 21 102.1 122 71 14 71 48 73 John Ely 24 6.48 6 12 27 27 134.2 161 97 26 69 79 71 John van Benschoten 30 6.63 4 10 26 18 95.0 112 70 16 57 57 69 Brian Omogrosso 26 6.94 3 7 24 11 71.1 82 55 12 56 42 67 Jeffrey Marquez 25 7.42 4 12 17 17 83.2 113 69 20 42 33 62 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Matt Thornton* 33 3.82 5 3 69 0 63.2 57 27 7 23 66 120 Octavio Dotel 36 4.12 3 3 57 0 54.2 49 25 8 28 63 110 Bobby Jenks 29 4.20 4 3 61 0 60.0 59 28 7 19 47 110 D.J. Carrasco 33 4.21 3 2 46 1 83.1 87 39 8 30 53 107 Tony Pena 28 4.61 5 5 80 0 82.0 90 42 11 29 55 99 Scott Linebrink 33 4.69 4 4 58 0 55.2 60 29 9 22 46 97 Derek Rodriguez 27 5.48 2 4 48 1 65.2 70 40 9 37 44 84 Randy Williams* 34 5.52 1 2 48 0 44.0 48 27 8 23 35 82 Jhonny Nunez 24 5.55 2 3 51 0 73.0 79 45 12 39 57 83 Jon Link 26 5.63 2 3 55 0 54.1 58 34 9 34 44 82 Fernando Hernandez 25 5.65 3 5 57 0 65.1 73 41 8 38 43 82 Kelvin Jimenez 29 5.86 3 5 54 2 78.1 96 51 12 31 38 79 Clevelan Santeliz 23 5.92 2 3 42 0 51.2 56 34 7 46 36 79 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 ThorntonMatt RP 47% 44% 9% RhodesArthur MyersRandy RinconRicardo PeavyJake SP 67% 32% 1% AppierKevin SmoltzJohn ColonBartolo DanksJohn SP 52% 46% 3% WolfRandy PettitteAndy AverySteve JenksBobby RP 28% 55% 17% AlmanzarCarlos BeckRod SchmidtDave DotelOctavio RP 28% 52% 20% PlunkEric GordonTom SeanezRudy CarrascoD.J. RP 21% 60% 19% TavarezJulian AdamsTerry TamJeff HudsonDaniel SP 50% 45% 4% DavisStorm MadduxGreg IsringhausenJason BuehrleMark SP 29% 58% 13% McGregorScott SwindellGreg JonesRandy PenaTony RP 8% 56% 36% LewisColby ReitsmaChris BuddieMike LinebrinkScott RP 11% 50% 39% St. ClaireRandy HernandezXavier LopezAurelio FloydGavin SP 16% 62% 22% GarciaFreddy BoddickerMike PineiroJoel TorresCarlos SP 1% 33% 66% LaxtonBrett LomonKevin ReichertDan GarciaFreddy SP 9% 39% 52% SaberhagenBret RasmussenEric MilackiBob RodriguezDerek RP 1% 24% 75% BorowskiJoe PisciottaMarc MarquezJeff NunezJhonny RP 1% 22% 77% MotaDanny BussaTodd SessionsDoug WilliamsRandy RP 2% 20% 77% TolarKevin SearageRay GibsonPaul LinkJon RP 2% 22% 75% HartleyMike ColomeJesus BlasucciTony HernandezFernando RP 1% 21% 79% SchneiderPaul ChavezAnthony MillsAlan SantelizClevelan RP 1% 14% 85% NealBlaine MeekEvan WinnJim JimenezKelvin RP 0% 12% 87% CoreyBryan BradleyBert WinchesterScott WhislerWes SP 0% 8% 92% MutisJeff AndersonJimmy RundlesRich HynickBrandon SP 0% 8% 92% MeadowsBrian WegmanBill TottenHeath HarrellLucas SP 0% 9% 90% BuddieMike PumphreyKen CocanowerJaime ElyJohn SP 0% 5% 95% RandallScott StewartPaul CressendJack van BenschotenJohn SP 0% 5% 95% GlynnRyan StullEverett JungeEric OmogrossoBrian SP 0% 2% 98% BockusRandy MustadEric ShimpTommy MarquezJeff SP 0% 1% 99% KlingenbeckScott CrawfordSteve KelleyAnthony Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 ThorntonMatt 40% 85% 88% 3% 64% PeavyJake 24% 89% 80% 1% 49% DanksJohn 14% 81% 5% 1% 40% JenksBobby 22% 72% 15% 10% 56% DotelOctavio 21% 74% 97% 0% 34% CarrascoD.J. 16% 72% 0% 3% 76% HudsonDaniel 13% 77% 10% 0% 81% BuehrleMark 8% 53% 0% 22% 21% PenaTony 6% 53% 1% 2% 40% LinebrinkScott 11% 47% 24% 1% 19% FloydGavin 2% 41% 2% 1% 14% TorresCarlos 1% 22% 4% 0% 64% GarciaFreddy 2% 21% 1% 6% 23% RodriguezDerek 1% 16% 2% 0% 35% NunezJhonny 1% 15% 12% 0% 21% WilliamsRandy 2% 17% 19% 0% 22% LinkJon 1% 19% 18% 0% 25% HernandezFernando 1% 13% 1% 0% 43% SantelizClevelan 1% 11% 4% 0% 51% JimenezKelvin 0% 8% 0% 1% 22% WhislerWes 0% 1% 0% 0% 23% HynickBrandon 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% HarrellLucas 0% 2% 0% 0% 30% ElyJohn 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% van BenschotenJohn 0% 1% 0% 0% 19% OmogrossoBrian 0% 1% 0% 0% 16% MarquezJeff 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Extrapolated Career Statistics Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ BuehrleMark 212 180 0 4.18 540 515 3416 3724 437 846 1921 113 GarciaFreddy 125 88 0 4.17 294 292 1868 1835 226 602 1362 111 PeavyJake 192 155 0 3.85 456 457 2761 2501 320 1019 2752 115 All figures in % based on projection playing time. Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 05, 2009 at 02:23 PM | 40 comment(s)
Related News: Chi White Sox, ZIPS
Related News: Chi White Sox, ZIPS
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It's interesting that, even though ZiPS doesn't hate the White Sox starters, it predicts them all to regress (and Floyd and Peavy to regress considerably).
It's also worth noting that Alex Rios seemed to break out of his horrible slump in the last two weeks of the season. I'll make a bold prediction and say that he won't hurt the White Sox in 2010.
Is that what $10m is supposed to buy these days? Wow, is the bar really set that low for Rios?
I'm not trying to be harsh or even guess what he'll do next year. Mostly I stand in awe of Kenny Williams. That guy has balls as big as church bells to make some of the moves he has. Rios looked shaky in TOR, and the rumors that came out after the deal had to be available to Kenny beforehand, and yet he throws down for the guy at retail.
I used to laugh when he did some of the goofy moves, but over the years his outcomes have outpaced my expectations so I've stopped snarking. (Peavy looks like he's recovering as expected, but that Rios contract, man, church bells.)
I think you always push a guy as far "up" the defensive spectrum you can without exposing him, unless he gets injured at the tougher positions.
- ZiPS still doesn't like Floyd very much. It apparently doesn't buy the jump in his K-rate (7.6/9 this year versus a career average of ~6.5 coming into the year, although I'm not sure how relevant Floyd's Philly stats are on what he'll do in 2010).
- I certainly hope that Gordon Beckham is more Chet Lemon than Darnell Coles or Edwin Encarnacion.
- I'm pretty underwhelmed by that Tyler Flowers projection. He spent (most of) the season at Birmingham (a notorious pitcher's park) and had an OPS near 1.000. Does ZiPS think the k-rate is that debilitating?
- The rotation excites the hell out of me. I'd take the over on the Buehrle, Danks and Floyd projections. I'd be very happy if Peavy finished with those numbers (although I'm expecting a much higher IP total). Garcia as a fifth starter appears to be perfectly acceptable and having Hudson waiting in the wings is nice.
Dan -- do you have a projection for CJ Retherford? As always, these are much appreciated, especially getting 'em out this early.
On Beckham, 3B and 2B are pretty much the same spot on the defensive spectrum and it really depends on Beckham's mix of arm vs. range as to which he'd be better at. And 3B are "corner bats" in only the technical sense, they hit more like CF than 1B/LF/RF. The question normally would be whether he can handle short but the White Sox already have a pretty good SS ... unless he's moving to CF.
Anyway, a team in a position somewhat similar to where they were last offseason. Dye's an FA right? I'll guess that Rios moves back to RF. They have holes at DH, 2B (or 3B if they move Beckham), and CF while last year they had holes at 3B, 2B and CF. Abreu would look pretty good on this team (some DH, some RF with Rios sliding over). Branyan too though he doesn't seem like the Sox type of player. If they grabbed either of those two, Nady might not be a bad addition. Cameron would be a nice pickup.
The last few years, Williams has sort of specialized in the post-injury/"disappointment" end of the market (Dye, Thome, Quentin, Rios, Pierzynski ... OK, he's just annoying). Who, besides Nady, is on that end of the market this offseason? I could see him grabbing Upton from the Rays -- depends on whether they buy the "lazy" label. Burrell certainly is down here. Kelly Johnson? Felipe Lopez? Chris Young?
I assumed he meant that Rios won't hurt the team payroll-wise; that he'll be more or less worth his contract when considering offense and defense. I could be wrong.
Yes. If he hits as ZiPS projects (and I think he will) and plays plus defense in center, he'll earn his money next year.
I imagine the outfield will be Podsednik in left, Rios in center, and some combination of Quentin, Wise, Kotsay, or whoever else they pick up off the scrap heap in right. As Dan suggests, there's not a whole lot of room for improvement, and the Sox have pretty much made their bed alread in terms of 2010 payroll. As much as I'd like to see it, they're not adding Chone Figgins or Bobby Abreu - Williams already made his big moves for 2010 when he added Peavy and Rios.
Many moons ago, whene the Jays traded Lopez away, there were rumors that it was at least partially because he'd been introduced to the party life by Raul Mondesi, and taken to it like a fish to water.
If he's still living that lifestyle, I can see it being a major source of annoyance to his teams.
I'd like to see that as well, but the team is talking about a rotating DH for 2010, using it primarily to try and keep Podsednik and Quentin healthy, and to spell Konerko.
On USSMariner, Dave Cameron is suggesting the M's should trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe and Jason Vargas for John Danks.
I said I though the trade was ridiculous; Kenny Williams would laugh then hangup. He defends the trade as fair.
What do you guys think?
I was that commenter :-)
Dave's abusing me pretty good (as is his way) but I'll give it right back.
I suggested the M's should send King Felix to the Yankees for Cano, Coke and Mitre. It works according to his "math".
Well, it's because you are so abrasive.
Yes, the trade proposal is ridiculous.
Looking at the projections again, I'm actually pretty pleased that ZiPS sees Carlos Torres as being a more-than-acceptable depth guy. Barring a trade he'll be the 7th on the SP depth chart (perhaps sixth if they don't want to jerk Hudson around and just want to stick him in the bullpen for the year), which seems about right.
Even more so, Jenks' regression seems a bit harsh. He got his K rate back up and a spike back near/above normal BABIP hurt his overall line and performance, especially with the long ball toward the end. But considering the benefit of the doubt Rios is getting after his performance...this surprised me.
Rk Player OPS+ HR PA R RBI BA OBP SLG OPS1 Cal Ripken 112 431 12883 1647 1695 .276 .340 .447 .788
2 Dave Kingman 115 442 7429 901 1210 .236 .302 .478 .780
3 Andre Dawson 119 438 10769 1373 1591 .279 .323 .482 .806
4 Darrell Evans 119 414 10737 1344 1354 .248 .361 .431 .792
5 Ernie Banks 122 512 10395 1305 1636 .274 .330 .500 .830
6 Sammy Sosa 128 609 9896 1475 1667 .273 .344 .534 .878
7 Eddie Murray 129 504 12817 1627 1917 .287 .359 .476 .836
8 Carl Yastrzemski 129 452 13991 1816 1844 .285 .379 .462 .841
9 Dave Winfield 130 465 12358 1669 1833 .283 .353 .475 .827
10 Juan Gonzalez 132 434 7155 1061 1404 .295 .343 .561 .904
11 Rafael Palmeiro 132 569 12046 1663 1835 .288 .371 .515 .885
12 Jose Canseco 132 462 8129 1186 1407 .266 .353 .515 .867
13 Billy Williams 133 426 10519 1410 1475 .290 .361 .492 .853
14 Fred McGriff 134 493 10174 1349 1550 .284 .377 .509 .886
15 Ken Griffey 136 630 11196 1656 1829 .285 .371 .541 .912
16 Carlos Delgado 138 473 8657 1241 1512 .280 .383 .546 .929
17 Reggie Jackson 139 563 11416 1551 1702 .262 .356 .490 .846
18 Gary Sheffield 140 509 10947 1636 1676 .292 .393 .514 .907
19 Duke Snider 140 407 8237 1259 1333 .295 .380 .540 .919
20 Mike Piazza 142 427 7745 1048 1335 .308 .377 .545 .922
21 Jason Giambi 143 409 8135 1159 1330 .282 .405 .527 .932
22 Chipper Jones 143 426 9273 1458 1445 .307 .406 .541 .947
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/23/2009.
If he gets to 400
right now I have Kong with 1.1 wins over Konerko (by the way I do wins over replacement)
I would think that Konerko, if he lasts to 400 would pass Kong and Kong would remain the worst 400+ Homer guy
But it could be close, a couple 100 OPS+ seasons (which is around where I set replacement level for 1B/Dhs) could net Konerko 400 HRs without letting him gain that 1.1 wins he needs to beat Kong.
It never has, and yet that doesn't seem to stop Floyd.
2008: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.87; actual ERA = 3.84
2009: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.11; actual ERA = 4.06
2010: ZiPS projected ERA = 4.78
Is it his declining k-rate?
As I write this, they have two arb-eligible players yet unsigned - John Danks and Tony Pena. I hope that Danks gets a multi-year deal, and they go year-to-year with Pena.
Most projection systems don't like Buehrle. I think PECOTA had something like a 5 year run of predicting a Buehrle implosion. I think it's that, as you note, he doesn't have a very impressive K-rate, and he also gives up his share of HR. I'm not sure, but I also don't think that most of these systems consider his ability to completely destroy the running game - for his career, base stealers are 40 for 95 against him, and that doesn't include his pickoffs.
And that probably actually underestimates Buehrle's ability to hold runners - something like 2/3 of his starts have been pitched to either AJ Pierzynski or Sandy Alomar, neither one of whom is a particularly good thrower.
A backup outfielder? Isn't that what Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones are?
Kotsay is backup 1B.
Jones is backup DH.
Ozzie will make it work. Somehow.
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