tony bernazard?

I had no idea that Red SS was so horrible. Is there a worse organizational hole in baseball?

I had no idea that Red SS was so horrible.

It's not, really. Valaika broke a hand in May and didn't really recover until the end of the year; I expect his bat to show up next year. Zack Cozart (who for some reason doesn't have a projection here) jumped from low-A to AA and held his own. I would think that one or the other will get a shot at the job sometime next year.

-- MWE

I had no idea that Red SS was so horrible. Is there a worse organizational hole in baseball?

I dunno, the Royals' everything?

I dunno, the Royals' everything?

If the Royals could keep Zach Greinke and their minor leagues, and re-enter as an expansion team, could they assemble a better team from the expansion draft? I say yes.

I cannot believe Kevin Barker is still playing, and not badly at that.

I hope Jay Bruce does better than his projection. He had a wrist injury, right? That's always scary. He hit pretty well in Sept, for what that's worth.

Votto's going to have a productive but short career, eh?

Can you make an offensive projection for Owings?

Thats a shits amount of career HR's for the pitchers.

after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season

When Dusty resorted to Option J, that's when he crossed the line.

What kind of record do people think these projections would translate into? Their pitching looks surprisingly good, even with Volquez injured.

Which scenario is more plausible?

What if the 12-year-old is Darren Baker?

You sure about those Brandon Phillips comps? Javier was an awful hitter (OPS+ of 83, 90, 58 ages 26-28). I'd never heard of Crtiz but looked him up and he was awful too (90, 58, 55). Bolling wasn't too bad. Phillips has a lot more power than any of them (thought I'm too lazy to look at context).

I am less enamored with Phillips. He was clearly caught jaking it several times this season. Each time he would swear it wouldn't happen again and then it would.

Not a good sign

What kind of record do people think these projections would translate into?

It really depends on who plays, I think. I don't see a rotation ace and I don't see much help for Votto unless Bruce takes a step forward.

-- MWE

There's no way that Drew Stubbs puts up a lower OBP than Taveras next year. None.

I'll take the over on Votto. He put up a 152 OPS+ this year and and an OPS over 100 points higher than this projection. Why would ZIPS see him as the same player as 2008?

edit: I see Dan answered my question as I was typing it. Personally, I see Votto having a career similar to Berkman. He's a tremendous hitter.

I'm also surprised to see that Hernandez still projects as an average C. If his defense is really average, he might not be a bad guy for the Yankees to sign to take 60-80 games (with Posada usually sliding to DH). Depending on how much he wants of course.

EDIT: and on Phillips' comps, how about just calling him 80% of Sandberg or something?

Wow, Arthur Rhodes is still around and still productive. He is entering Jesse Orosco/Julio Franco territory.

"Can you make an offensive projection for Owings?"

I, too, am curious about this.

i ran a projection for owings using the sims 2. he gets married to a guy and adopts a chinese kid.

If you do a quick FIP on Cordero of (BB*3-K*2+HR*13)/IP+3.20, you come out with an ERA of 3.43. Is his predicted ERA in some way based on the fact that he has consistently ourperformed his FIPs in the past?

Dan:

Can you do a projection on Cozart?

-- MWE

So the ER allowed prediction takes into account both the park and the defense behind the pitcher?

Random other comments:

Alonso WILL start 2010, my guess is at AA for about six weeks. He's going to hit in the majors; the main question with this team is where he and Votto will play. There's been some talk about Votto going to left field, and that's probably the best way to go. I like Alonso's defense at 1B; he reacts well going both ways. He reminds me quite a bit of Adrian Gonzalez at the plate, with surprising power to center and left-center.

Frazier was moved off SS, and while he played some 2B this year, he didn't play it especially well, and he wasn't any great shakes in LF last year (although he did have a pile of assists). Again, I think the bat will play in the majors, but I really have no idea where he's going to end up, either.

Francisco isn't a switch-hitter; he bats left all the way. He led the Southern League in errors this year, by a bunch, and there were a LOT of other balls that got by him that he didn't even make the faintest effort to field - when he made a dive for a ball in a game late in the season the Section 210 regulars all sort of looked at each other in shock that he'd actually gotten his uniform dirty. He can be handled with high heat, either up and in or up and away; he just can't lay off those pitches most of the time (although that is one area where he did improve somewhat as the season went on). In 11 years here I don't think I've seen the Mudcats' fan base react so negatively to a guy, and it wasn't just the Section 210 folks, either. Francisco can hit the ball a long way - but he reminds me so much of Jason Stokes as a hitter, even though Stokes batted right and Francisco hits left, that it's not funny. I'm amused that two of his three listed comps are failed Baltimore 3B prospects.

-- MWE

I can see Bruce hitting a LOT of HRs if he's healthy.

There's no way Steel was a better movie than Kazaam.

Dan, or anybody for that matter,
I have a questions regarding:

Chris Dickerson* lf 28 .247 .336 .394 119 388 53 96 17 5 10 39 50 122 17 5 93

How is his OBP so low? So far, in his 421 ML PA, he's posted a .383 OBP with a great BB % and improving K %. Just wondering how the projection has his OBP so much lower than his career, even though his career has been pretty short so far.

I can't speak for Dan's model, but my guess is that 421 ML plate appearances aren't really that much, and he's a 28-year-old career minor leaguer without much power. A lot of dudes see their BB rates collapse in the majors if they don't prove they can punish a pitch in the zone.

Dan,
Could you check Bruce's numbers again?

James .274/.340/.537, 877 OPS
CHONE .283/.349/.537, 886 OPS
ZiPS .251/.315/.459, 774 OPS

Bruce is interesting, through age 22 Bonds is his top comp on BBRef and Wily Mo is his second. Talk about could go either way, though Reggie Jackson is #4.

Dan, Would you please include the projection for P Enerio Del Rosario prior to the final version. He seems to have found a magic ground ball pitch. Thanks

The Red offense is still a mess

#1 in the NL in runs scored (by 30 runs as of 8/30)! Though, no one would have guessed that at the beginning of the season.