User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 9.3675 seconds
64 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds
With the shackles of a one-dimensional offense led by base-clearing Adam Dunn fallen off, the Reds developed a flexible, aggressive offense, featuring the electric leadoff hitter Willy Taveras at the stop of the runner and even the home-run hitters, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto able to run the bases a bit, especially Phillips. With red lights turning green, the Red offense would Billyball the team to 90 wins when combined with the improved pitching staff. Wizened manager Dusty Baker does his best job yet, integrating rookies with veterans and making sure everyone has their proper playing time.An upopular 12-year-old boy is chased into an old building by other kids that wanted to beat him up. Inside, the boy finds a magic radio and inside, is a gigantic African-American genie named Kazaam. Kazaam grants the boy wishes, including junk food falling from the sky, until the boy is kidnapped by the owner of a nightclub. Kazaam finds the boy dead, but sacrifices his genie powers to bring the boy back from the dead and everyone lives happily ever after.
Which scenario is more plausible? It's close, but my money is on Shaquille O'Neal's 3rd-best movie being closer to a gritty depiction of modern life than the Walt Jocketty-developed dreamscape.
Truth be told, the Reds at least have a good bullpen and some useful starting pitching, even with the true projection for Edinson Volquez being in the neighborhood of "0-0, 0.00" than the projection given below. The Red offense is still a mess and the team didn't make much of an effort to try new things or answer questions for 2010 outside of "try every player on the roster at shortstop!" after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season. There's a type of team that Dusty Baker can probably manage pretty well. The Reds, with questions and various options all over the place, are pretty much the worst type of team for Baker to have.
I wouldn't be too worried about Yonder Alonso. He's just not ready to start 2010 and has very good odds to develop quickly if his wrist regains full strength quickly. As a fake internet doctor with an econ background, I think it's encouraging that it was a bone that broke rather than a tendon.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Joey Votto* 1b 26 .293 .372 .500 143 522 78 153 32 2 24 90 64 114 8 4 128 Scott Rolen 3b 35 .283 .352 .439 106 392 52 111 27 2 10 49 39 57 5 3 108 Jonny Gomes lf 29 .243 .328 .471 121 367 53 89 20 2 20 60 40 114 8 3 108 Kevin Barker* 1b 34 .254 .333 .446 115 397 52 101 21 2 17 62 48 101 1 1 104 Brandon Phillips 2b 29 .276 .327 .446 143 561 79 155 27 4 20 88 38 85 25 8 102 Chris Heisey cf 25 .270 .329 .415 133 518 75 140 30 3 13 59 39 90 18 4 96 Jay Bruce* rf 23 .251 .315 .459 127 466 69 117 22 3 23 70 42 111 7 5 102 Wladimir Balentien lf 25 .250 .315 .440 116 400 53 100 24 2 16 52 39 98 5 3 97 Chris Dickerson* lf 28 .247 .336 .394 119 388 53 96 17 5 10 39 50 122 17 5 93 Laynce Nix* lf 29 .249 .302 .456 115 366 52 91 21 2 17 56 26 93 2 1 97 Ryan Hanigan c 29 .267 .347 .357 99 311 34 83 14 1 4 27 34 43 0 0 87 Daniel Dorn* lf 25 .250 .312 .414 117 408 49 102 21 2 14 53 32 102 2 1 90 Yonder Alonso* 1b 23 .255 .321 .394 86 322 31 82 19 1 8 47 33 63 1 1 88 Darnell McDonald rf 31 .261 .311 .409 112 406 52 106 22 4 10 48 29 90 14 4 89 Ramon Hernandez c 34 .255 .324 .385 104 364 37 93 18 1 9 54 34 56 1 1 87 Danny Richar* 2b 27 .264 .315 .405 100 368 47 97 20 4 8 38 27 65 8 5 89 Drew Sutton# 2b 27 .253 .328 .382 113 403 62 102 22 3 8 42 41 91 9 6 88 Adam Rosales 3b 27 .248 .314 .394 126 432 60 107 25 4 10 50 35 89 6 3 86 Wes Bankston 3b 26 .256 .298 .416 118 450 52 115 23 2 15 65 25 91 2 1 86 Corky Miller c 34 .243 .328 .361 58 169 17 41 8 0 4 24 17 31 1 0 83 Todd Frazier lf 24 .253 .306 .400 107 415 50 105 24 2 11 52 31 88 5 5 85 Juan Francisco# 3b 23 .252 .283 .425 141 563 67 142 28 3 21 85 23 147 4 2 84 Sean Henry rf 24 .257 .313 .374 128 478 60 123 23 3 9 44 35 95 16 9 81 Paul Janish ss 27 .239 .310 .340 117 385 48 92 22 1 5 35 33 70 4 1 72 Drew Stubbs cf 25 .235 .305 .348 139 549 73 129 26 3 10 47 53 158 30 11 73 Willy Taveras cf 28 .260 .309 .320 115 435 65 113 16 2 2 24 27 70 36 7 67 Wilkin Castillo# c 26 .263 .299 .365 88 304 32 80 15 2 4 28 13 50 6 5 75 Chris Valaika ss 24 .249 .287 .361 122 485 47 121 23 2 9 53 22 109 3 3 70 Chris Denove c 27 .244 .301 .356 66 205 18 50 12 1 3 23 15 42 0 2 73 Luis Bolivar# 2b 29 .240 .285 .355 117 375 55 90 17 4 6 36 20 86 18 5 68 Michael Griffin 2b 26 .255 .287 .356 124 447 47 114 24 3 5 37 17 80 8 6 69 Devin Mesoraco c 22 .230 .289 .349 93 335 27 77 17 1 7 36 26 88 1 2 68 Neftali Soto 3b 21 .244 .276 .358 107 422 39 103 20 2 8 46 18 91 1 2 66 Craig Tatum c 27 .234 .283 .342 98 342 30 80 17 1 6 40 22 83 0 1 65 Eric Eymann 2b 26 .243 .285 .336 122 420 45 102 21 3 4 42 21 88 2 4 64 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Votto* Av/129 Fr/174 Rolen Vg/82 Gomes Fr/84 Pr/121 Barker* Av/125 Phillips Vg/85 Heisey Av/106 Av/126 Av/108 Bruce* Vg/121 Av/136 Vg/148 Balentien Av/81 Fr/88 Av/129 Dickerson* Vg/136 Fr/136 Av/136 Nix* Vg/92 Pr/172 Av/70 Hanigan Av Dorn* Av/157 Av/86 Fr/121 Alonson* Fr/144 McDonald Vg/122 Fr/130 Vg/122 Hernandez Av Fr/121 Richar* Pr/138 Pr/159 Sutton# Av/140 Fr/121 Pr/154 Rosales Av/117 Pr/120 Pr/120 Pr/120 Av/120 Av/120 Bankston Av/127 Pr/203 Miller Fr Fr/84 Frazier Av/107 Fr/107 Fr/107 Fr/107 Av/107 Francisco# Fr/147 Av/160 Henry Av/151 Fr/229 Av/151 Janish Av/121 Av/121 Av/101 Stubbs Vg/133 Vg/133 Vg/133 Taveras Vg/141 Castillo# Av Fr/128 Fr/128 Pr/137 Fr/121 Valaika Fr/121 Fr/136 Denove Vg Bolivar# Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118 Av/118 Griffin Fr/97 Fr/122 Av/81 Av/159 Mesoraco Fr Soto Av/156 Av/156 Tatum Fr Eymann Av/111 Fr/124 Av/121 Fr/111 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 VottoJoey 1B 30% 40% 18% 9% 2% MayCarlos HrbekKent HafnerTravis RolenScott 3B 12% 31% 30% 19% 9% BoyerKen HoweArt ZeileTodd PhillipsBrandon 2B 34% 21% 19% 16% 10% WhiteFrank NealCharlie JacksonRandy GomesJonny LF 9% 25% 25% 26% 16% KomminskBrad WadeScott MohrDustan BarkerKevin 1B 2% 10% 19% 44% 25% MorynWalt TracyAndy StevensLee HeiseyChris CF 11% 19% 36% 27% 7% MatosLuis MooreTerry ByrdMarlon BruceJay RF 3% 12% 18% 29% 38% ChurchRyan KhouryScott RodriguezHenry BalentienWladimir LF 0% 6% 15% 32% 47% LennonPat DayettBrian JohnsonBen DickersonChris LF 3% 4% 10% 28% 55% LombardGeorge TuckerMichael MackowiakRob NixLaynce LF 2% 5% 12% 28% 54% HowittDannKieschnickBrooks WhitmoreDarrell McDonaldDarnell RF 1% 5% 10% 23% 62% BrownEmil BrumfieldJacob CimoliGino DornDaniel LF 0% 1% 5% 21% 73% BrownDee KroegerJoshGriffinJohn-Ford RicharDanny 2B 3% 6% 14% 33% 43% BucherJim WilfongRob MartinStu HaniganRyan C 3% 14% 29% 39% 15% TreshMike RosarBuddy AzcueJoe AlonsoYonder 1B 0% 0% 3% 25% 72% DeSaJoe CoxSteve MillerBarry HernandezRamon C 3% 19% 31% 33% 13% DavisSpud PenaTony DiazBo BankstonWes 3B 0% 3% 11% 30% 55% LeonJose WootenShawn KingBrennan SuttonDrew 2B 3% 5% 12% 29% 51% BeattieAndrew ScalesBobby BernazardTony RosalesAdam 3B 1% 4% 10% 29% 55% RedfieldJoe BlakeCasey BrookensTom FranciscoJuan 3B 0% 1% 9% 28% 62% LeonJose HamiltonJeff CoffieIvanon FrazierTodd LF 0% 0% 2% 8% 90% VentoMike ChamberlainWes AlexanderChad MillerCorky C 2% 12% 30% 43% 13% DavisSpud RiceDel KnorrRandy HenrySean RF 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% AllenChad FicklinWinston BrownEmil TaverasWilly CF 1% 2% 10% 33% 54% GlanvilleDoug RuanWilkin EllisonJason StubbsDrew CF 0% 0% 4% 23% 72% ChristensonRyan GoreckiReid PowellDante CastilloWilkin C 0% 0% 3% 26% 70% MartinezLuis DempseyPatRodriguezGuillermo BolivarLuis 2B 1% 1% 2% 12% 84% IngramGarey BeasleyTony JavierJulian JanishPaul SS 0% 2% 10% 32% 56% PenaBert VelandiaJorge ColeStu ValaikaChristophe SS 0% 0% 4% 20% 76% CruzFausto ThomasAndres RiveraLuis DenoveChristopher C 0% 0% 2% 19% 79% MahoneyMike LiddleSteven DatzJeff GriffinMichael 2B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% TaborGregGrudzielanekMark ManriqueFred SotoNeftali 3B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% HayesCharlie BellRicky MoronkoJeff MesoracoDevin C 0% 0% 1% 12% 87% LuzinskiRyan DavisDoug MolinaAngel TatumCraig C 0% 0% 0% 6% 94% LopezPedro DifeliceMike MolinaJose EymannEric 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% TysonMike DiazEdwin FlorezTim Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB VottoJoey 42% 44% 41% 25% 6% 0% 16% 0% RolenScott 29% 23% 7% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% PhillipsBrandon 17% 2% 15% 2% 1% 3% 13% 27% GomesJonny 2% 6% 25% 4% 0% 0% 6% 0% BarkerKevin 6% 7% 9% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% HeiseyChris 12% 4% 3% 1% 3% 1% 0% 3% BruceJay 2% 1% 14% 1% 0% 0% 11% 0% BalentienWladimir 2% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DickersonChris 2% 8% 2% 1% 0% 8% 0% 2% NixLaynce 2% 0% 10% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% McDonaldDarnell 10% 1% 1% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% DornDaniel 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RicharDanny 10% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% HaniganRyan 14% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AlonsoYonder 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HernandezRamon 5% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BankstonWes 4% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SuttonDrew 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RosalesAdam 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% FranciscoJuan 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% FrazierTodd 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MillerCorky 6% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HenrySean 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TaverasWilly 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 85% StubbsDrew 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 54% CastilloWilkin 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BolivarLuis 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% JanishPaul 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ValaikaChristophe 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DenoveChristopher 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GriffinMichael 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SotoNeftali 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MesoracoDevin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TatumCraig 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EymannEric 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Edinson Volquez 26 3.66 8 7 22 22 128.0 102 52 13 65 128 120 Aaron Harang 32 3.96 10 11 29 29 186.1 190 82 27 47 158 111 Johnny Cueto 24 4.08 11 13 31 31 180.2 173 82 25 60 153 108 Bronson Arroyo 33 4.20 12 14 32 32 203.2 208 95 29 63 135 106 Matthew Maloney* 26 4.54 9 13 29 29 174.1 177 88 29 49 135 97 Travis Wood* 23 4.62 8 12 28 28 146.0 147 75 16 76 99 95 Daryl Thompson 24 4.73 3 5 14 13 70.1 74 37 10 23 39 93 Justin Lehr 32 4.79 5 9 25 19 120.1 131 64 17 40 58 92 Ramon A. Ramirez 27 4.84 5 9 38 22 139.1 134 75 21 67 101 91 Micah Owings 27 4.86 7 12 29 24 140.2 140 76 21 60 95 91 Jordan Smith 24 4.87 4 8 17 17 92.1 105 50 11 30 47 90 Homer Bailey 24 4.98 5 9 23 23 128.1 135 71 15 54 97 89 Kip Wells 33 5.05 4 7 37 13 103.1 103 58 12 53 77 88 Sam Lecure 26 5.12 6 11 25 25 135.1 144 77 22 59 99 86 Ben Jukich* 27 5.21 5 11 28 22 129.2 143 75 19 57 88 85 James Avery 26 6.11 3 9 19 19 95.2 117 65 17 44 49 72 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Francisco Cordero 35 3.05 4 3 66 0 65.0 56 22 5 28 67 147 Arthur Rhodes* 40 3.43 2 2 60 0 44.2 38 17 4 20 43 127 Jared Burton 29 3.61 2 2 57 0 62.1 58 25 6 26 53 117 Bill Bray* 27 3.75 4 3 64 0 60.0 57 25 7 25 62 115 Nick Masset 28 3.82 3 3 59 3 77.2 74 33 8 28 62 114 Danny Herrera* 25 3.88 5 5 65 0 69.2 68 30 7 27 53 112 Carlos Fisher 27 4.33 3 3 45 0 60.1 58 29 6 31 52 103 Mike Lincoln 35 4.87 1 2 35 0 40.2 40 22 6 19 29 91 Jeff Kennard 28 5.04 2 4 46 0 60.2 64 34 8 32 43 86 Pedro Viola* 27 5.40 2 5 58 2 68.1 70 41 11 44 58 82 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 CorderoFrancisco RP 80% 19% 1% HernandezRoberto GrimsleyJason FarrSteve RhodesArthur RP 55% 37% 8% FrymanWoodie FrancoJohn PlesacDan VolquezEdinson SP 77% 21% 2% DeLeonJose ClancyJim GuzmanJuan BrayBill RP 44% 48% 8% GuthrieMark DiazCarlos AssenmacherPaul BurtonJared RP 40% 50% 10% PowerTed SanchezLuis CarrascoHector MassetNick RP 34% 56% 10% WilliamsonMark TessmerJay LopezAlbie HerreraDanny RP 34% 54% 12% MoloneyBill SaucierKevin EversgerdBryan HarangAaron SP 53% 45% 3% LieberJon ClancyJim HellingRick CuetoJohnny SP 46% 50% 4% ValeraJulio TorresSalomon LackeyJohn ArroyoBronson SP 34% 60% 6% SmithsonMike TomkoBrett FranklinRyan FisherCarlos RP 17% 56% 27% CorcoranRoy SalmonBrad SmithRoy MaloneyMatthew SP 18% 64% 18% CormierRheal HammakerAtlee MischPatrick WoodTravis SP 16% 60% 24% KruegerBill HancockChris GomezPat ThompsonDaryl SP 20% 47% 33% KendrickKyle SallesJohn DicksonJason LehrJustin SP 18% 48% 34% FigueroaJonathan SundraSteve GomezRuben RamirezRamon SP 9% 54% 37% MartinRenie BettendorfJeff StrakerLes OwingsMicah SP 9% 56% 36% LealLuis MartinChandler CorneliusReid LincolnMike RP 12% 36% 52% SlatonJim MathewsTerry MahomesPat SmithJordan SP 13% 47% 40% MitreSergio DownsKelly FoggJosh BaileyHomer SP 9% 49% 42% BoskieShawn TelfordAnthony PetersonMark WellsKip SP 3% 30% 67% MunozBobby EichelbergerJuan RayKen LecureSamuel SP 5% 42% 52% CassidyScott FigueroaNelson SikorskiBrian KennardJeff RP 2% 30% 68% TrautweinJohn MartinezAnastacio BrittanCorey JukichBenjamin SP 3% 40% 57% RobertsonNate LerchRandy WatsonMark ViolaPedro RP 1% 20% 79% MancusoPaul BoweBrandon ScheidRich AveryJames SP 0% 9% 91% FrancoMartire CooganPatrick EmanuelBrandon Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 CorderoFrancisco 74% 99% 87% 0% 84% RhodesArthur 46% 88% 63% 2% 83% VolquezEdinson 37% 92% 80% 0% 64% BrayBill 36% 85% 87% 1% 57% BurtonJared 32% 81% 32% 1% 77% MassetNick 27% 83% 15% 2% 66% HerreraDanny 27% 80% 10% 2% 68% HarangAaron 13% 80% 26% 29% 19% CuetoJohnny 12% 75% 29% 1% 25% ArroyoBronson 6% 68% 0% 5% 19% FisherCarlos 12% 59% 33% 0% 72% MaloneyMatthew 3% 47% 10% 11% 7% WoodTravis 2% 41% 2% 0% 60% ThompsonDaryl 4% 36% 0% 8% 40% LehrJustin 5% 37% 2% 9% 30% RamirezRamon 1% 26% 4% 0% 22% OwingsMicah 1% 28% 1% 0% 21% LincolnMike 12% 40% 11% 1% 48% SmithJordan 2% 28% 0% 7% 43% BaileyHomer 1% 25% 8% 0% 45% WellsKip 2% 25% 8% 0% 50% LecureSamuel 1% 16% 4% 0% 10% KennardJeff 1% 20% 4% 0% 40% JukichBenjamin 0% 13% 1% 0% 20% ViolaPedro 1% 13% 30% 0% 23% AveryJames 0% 2% 0% 0% 12% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ PhillipsBrandon .265 .315 .422 1687 6509 875 1728 300 46 210 938 420 1045 248 92 91 RolenScott .280 .362 .479 2083 7644 1227 2143 530 41 304 1244 904 1364 119 53 118 VottoJoey .282 .364 .475 1896 6872 985 1935 408 25 291 1109 866 1525 98 57 119 TaverasWilly .268 .316 .324 982 3666 540 984 119 21 14 191 213 594 295 65 67 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ ArroyoBronson 168 171 1 4.31 476 440 2798 2895 386 886 1887 105 CorderoFrancisc 61 51 480 3.20 1006 0 1027 913 77 472 1057 145 HarangAaron 156 158 0 4.23 433 427 2714 2841 395 736 2293 105 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
Colorado Rockies
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 21, 2009 at 07:51 PM | 35 comment(s)
Related News: Sabermetrics, Projections, ZIPS, Cincinnati
Related News: Sabermetrics, Projections, ZIPS, Cincinnati
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2008 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Reader Comments and Retorts
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
It's not, really. Valaika broke a hand in May and didn't really recover until the end of the year; I expect his bat to show up next year. Zack Cozart (who for some reason doesn't have a projection here) jumped from low-A to AA and held his own. I would think that one or the other will get a shot at the job sometime next year.
-- MWE
I dunno, the Royals' everything?
If the Royals could keep Zach Greinke and their minor leagues, and re-enter as an expansion team, could they assemble a better team from the expansion draft? I say yes.
What if the 12-year-old is Darren Baker?
You sure about those Brandon Phillips comps? Javier was an awful hitter (OPS+ of 83, 90, 58 ages 26-28). I'd never heard of Crtiz but looked him up and he was awful too (90, 58, 55). Bolling wasn't too bad. Phillips has a lot more power than any of them (thought I'm too lazy to look at context).
Not a good sign
It really depends on who plays, I think. I don't see a rotation ace and I don't see much help for Votto unless Bruce takes a step forward.
-- MWE
ZiPS does have a hard time finding good comps for Phillips as he's fairly unique. As a quick example, just looking at Phillips home runs and his speed, I only have 27 second basemen in my database that are within half-a-deviation or closer on just those 2 factors at close ages. Adding in RC/27 outs and I'm already down to 16 players.
As such, generic aging factors are a pretty big factor in Phillips's projections.
Ack! Those are earned runs! I'll have to fix.
Votto's going to have a productive but short career, eh?
That's mostly uncertainty - he doesn't have a lot of playing time "in the bag" right now.
I'll take the over on Votto. He put up a 152 OPS+ this year and and an OPS over 100 points higher than this projection. Why would ZIPS see him as the same player as 2008?
edit: I see Dan answered my question as I was typing it. Personally, I see Votto having a career similar to Berkman. He's a tremendous hitter.
EDIT: and on Phillips' comps, how about just calling him 80% of Sandberg or something?
I, too, am curious about this.
Closers also naturally have a slightly lower ERA (by 0.05 to 0.15) simply because of 9th inning road blown saves losses, which lead to runners being unnaturally stranded. It doesn't take many of these to slightly move the ERA of a pitching with 70 IP.
Can you do a projection on Cozart?
-- MWE
Alonso WILL start 2010, my guess is at AA for about six weeks. He's going to hit in the majors; the main question with this team is where he and Votto will play. There's been some talk about Votto going to left field, and that's probably the best way to go. I like Alonso's defense at 1B; he reacts well going both ways. He reminds me quite a bit of Adrian Gonzalez at the plate, with surprising power to center and left-center.
Frazier was moved off SS, and while he played some 2B this year, he didn't play it especially well, and he wasn't any great shakes in LF last year (although he did have a pile of assists). Again, I think the bat will play in the majors, but I really have no idea where he's going to end up, either.
Francisco isn't a switch-hitter; he bats left all the way. He led the Southern League in errors this year, by a bunch, and there were a LOT of other balls that got by him that he didn't even make the faintest effort to field - when he made a dive for a ball in a game late in the season the Section 210 regulars all sort of looked at each other in shock that he'd actually gotten his uniform dirty. He can be handled with high heat, either up and in or up and away; he just can't lay off those pitches most of the time (although that is one area where he did improve somewhat as the season went on). In 11 years here I don't think I've seen the Mudcats' fan base react so negatively to a guy, and it wasn't just the Section 210 folks, either. Francisco can hit the ball a long way - but he reminds me so much of Jason Stokes as a hitter, even though Stokes batted right and Francisco hits left, that it's not funny. I'm amused that two of his three listed comps are failed Baltimore 3B prospects.
-- MWE
I have a questions regarding:
Chris Dickerson* lf 28 .247 .336 .394 119 388 53 96 17 5 10 39 50 122 17 5 93
How is his OBP so low? So far, in his 421 ML PA, he's posted a .383 OBP with a great BB % and improving K %. Just wondering how the projection has his OBP so much lower than his career, even though his career has been pretty short so far.
Could you check Bruce's numbers again?
James .274/.340/.537, 877 OPS
CHONE .283/.349/.537, 886 OPS
ZiPS .251/.315/.459, 774 OPS
Bruce is interesting, through age 22 Bonds is his top comp on BBRef and Wily Mo is his second. Talk about could go either way, though Reggie Jackson is #4.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main