You have Hafner in the ODDIBE section but his offensive projection seems to be missing.

I don't know why I'm so drawn to the little oddities about the career projections, but I am. Sizemore only getting an extra ~100 career AB over Cabrera and playing fewer games just doesn't seem right. I guess he can be a utility guy, Alex Cora type for a long time but that one seems strange.

At this point, wouldn't it make some sense to see if Kerry Wood can start again, try to up his value, and trade him?

I liked Justin Masterson, but it's kind of sad to see him projected as a team's best starter.

Masterson, Starter: 10-11, 4.66
Masterson, Reliever: 4-3, 3.78

So, he still stays the best starter as full-time starter.

For those wondering, ZiPS is "trained" to look out for pitchers that have obvious role changes (so if a guy that's been 100% starting has most recent year of 100% relieving, for example, ZiPS assumes he's a full-time reliever now). In essence, from quality of pitcher, start/relief use of pitcher, and changes in both, I made a model of predicting future start/relief roles for initial pitcher projections.

My judgment doesn't come in until I'm making a roster and depth chart the last build. Masterson will, barring some unusual situation, have a full-time starter projection come March.

Also, Jason Grilli will be added.

would i be the only one who wouldn't at all be surprised if carlos carrasco bests his ZiPS ERA by 2 full runs? i see where the projection comes from, but i think he's a hell of a pitcher, and it's gotta show through at some point.

Man, Shin-Soo Choo really made good, didn't he?

Damn, I love Cleveland's outfield.

Random comments:

1. I thought Cabrera was supposed to be a defensive whiz. Sure seemed like he was a couple years ago. Still, very nice comps for him -- and easy to see how a player like that would hold onto a starting job for a long time (i.e. in response to #1).

2. So I should hold off on the Grady for the HoF campaign.

3. An ugly set of comps for Matt LaPorta.

4. I had to look up Brad Gulden -- that must have been one odd career. Lots of injuries? Horrendous defense? (look at his minors numbers or that comment won't make sense)

5. I am surprised that Santana is projected to walk that much. I thought minor-league walk rates weren't supposed to translate very well (from Mike Emeigh maybe? you?). I'll take the under on the walks, at least for his rookie year.

6. Guitar fans hope that Santana and Grant Green (A's) have long careers.

7. The rotation does stink but at least it looks like you get 8 or 9 deep before hitting true disasters. I guess that's assuming health for Carmona and Westbrook though.

8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:

a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?

Probably some mix of the 3 but is there a rough %age you could give us on each? (and obviously each of those comes with huge caveats about uncertainty.)

Wow...years of therapy and Jack Z must be working...I'm a M's fan and the Asdrubal C. projection doesn't make me want to throw my beer bottle through the monitor. At least until I look again at the Jack Wilson projection of OPS+ 37 or whatever the Hell it is.

How's the Choo projection treating you, then? Imagine an outfield of Adam Jones--Franklin Gutierrez--Ichiro, with Shin-Soo Choo at DH, and with Michael Saunders as trade bait. Put Cabrera and J. Lopez in the middle infield, Beltre at 3rd, and Felix/Lee/Tillman/Morrow properly developed, and you start getting the crazies.

8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:

a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?

Giving straight percentages on these is an answer I don't even know how to tackle.

When it comes down to it, I'm doing the same thing as one would do when calculating generic playing aging in baseball history. I'm just doing it on the fly with similar players being a bigger part of the model.

Individual comps are most important the nearer the time frame - as the years you project become farther in the future, the aging becomes more generic. Even then, specific individuals aren't really all that important in the model as a whole, even the top few guys.

This is projected to be one tired bullpen. Westbrook and Masterson's IP projections barely get over 5 IP per start. Yikes.

Gold Star.... actually, Valbuena could be at 2B instead of Lopez. But then it nullifies the Frankie Gutez trade.

Valbuena ain't much; rather have Lopez, let alone Gutierrez . . .

I definitely thought Asdrubal would get a better SS rating. I thought that was the whole reason he moved there from 2B, not to mention moving Peralta off of there. I always heard good reports on Cabrera's defense though.

Man, this pitching staff is ROUGH.

So ZiPS projects Santana to outhit Wieters this year. Is the Eastern League really that much tougher than the International League and the American League?

Combined MLB and translations:

Wieters

2008: 291/359/404
2009: 281/339/422

Santana

2008: 260/353/454
2009: 243/343/416

They'd both get better projections if they played other positions - young catchers are very risky.

Matt Wieters is above projection.

Really, a ZERO percent chance Grady steals 30 bases? That seems broken.

Really, a ZERO percent chance Grady steals 30 bases? That seems broken.


Well, it's not quite zero, just rounded. ZiPS actually says 1-in-229.

Remember, though, those are the odds of him stealing 30 bases at the projected playing time. Not counting reached on error in either case, ZiPS has Sizemore standing on first base 168 times in his projection while that number is 229 for 2007 and 202 in 2008.

With 750 PA, the odds of 30 stolen bases increases to 24%

Dan,
seems that Adam Miller's projection got lost (although he is ODDIBE).

Also the Indians picked up ex Padre Luis A. Rodriguez to "play" the Carroll role - any chance of getting his projection added in ? ditto for Saul Rivera.Thanks

Asdrubal Cabrera's comps - good god.

Two Hall of Very Good shortstops with eight all-star appearances and an MVP between them. And also Robin Yount.

The rest of Cabrera's top 10 is Marion, Trammell, Bartell, Cordero, Jimenez, Biggio, and Kubek.

So glad I picked up Asdrubal off the waiver wire for my fantasy team last year :)

I think the answer to this is "yes", but are these OPS+ projections park and league adjusted?

OPS+ is always a park and league neutral stat, so yes!

Will Hagadone be projected this season?