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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, December 31, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians
It should hardly come as a surprise to anybody who watched the Indians this season, but the team has some serious rotation issues going forward. Any team needs to have a lot of money to quickly be able to replace three excellent starters (Carmona's pre-implosion performance was still lost by the team, even if they weren't able to cash in like they did with Lee and Sabathia). The bullpen should perform a lot better, but that's going to hardly be enough with an extremely shaky rotation and an offense of serviceable players.Don't get me wrong, the team isn't devoid of talent and if a few of the starting prospects stepping forward could make the Indians competitive fairly soon. It's a weak division and while the team has similar issues to the Orioles (but slightly worse), there's no juggernaut in the Central to worry about, let alone two.
Do remember, however, that some of the team's best pitching prospects aren't projected because they are still pretty far away. If one or two of Jason Knapp, Nick Hagadone, and Alex White pan out, the situation starts to look a little less bleak. The team can hardly be counting on Scott Lewis or especially Adam Miller, but they would be nice bonuses if the Indians are a bit lucky. This organization has a good long-term future, but that future isn't 2010.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Shin-Soo Choo* rf 27 .286 .375 .466 127 461 75 132 30 4 15 79 59 116 10 3 121 Grady Sizemore* cf 27 .264 .368 .482 134 537 92 142 30 6 25 86 80 121 15 5 122 Travis Hafner* dh 33 .257 .365 .448 102 362 48 93 19 1 16 64 58 80 0 0 114 Carlos Santana# c 24 .250 .352 .429 127 448 69 112 28 2 16 74 70 102 1 2 105 Matt LaPorta lf 25 .265 .338 .443 114 422 63 112 25 1 16 72 38 88 1 1 104 Asdrubal Cabrera# ss 24 .281 .344 .406 145 549 83 154 36 3 9 78 51 106 10 3 97 Jhonny Peralta 3b 28 .265 .327 .420 146 567 75 150 33 2 17 89 51 133 1 1 96 Jordan Brown* lf 26 .278 .331 .405 122 474 57 132 29 2 9 64 34 76 3 2 93 Michael Brantley* cf 23 .282 .348 .360 134 547 84 154 24 2 5 54 55 60 32 7 88 Andy Marte 3b 26 .255 .303 .426 121 420 48 107 23 2 15 66 29 83 1 0 90 Luis Valbuena* 2b 24 .256 .320 .384 135 484 75 124 26 3 10 56 46 97 6 5 85 Nicholas Weglarz* lf 22 .228 .331 .357 113 403 58 92 18 2 10 53 56 109 2 3 82 Matt McBride lf 25 .256 .302 .381 101 399 46 102 27 1 7 61 21 61 0 0 79 Lou Marson c 24 .247 .338 .325 109 381 53 94 19 1 3 43 51 89 2 2 77 Lonnie Chisenhall* 3b 21 .248 .300 .379 109 443 51 110 24 2 10 65 29 94 2 1 78 Trevor Crowe# cf 26 .249 .319 .342 113 421 60 105 21 3 4 42 41 84 14 6 75 Chris Gimenez c 27 .229 .313 .347 103 354 43 81 16 1 8 37 38 97 2 2 74 Wyatt Toregas c 27 .247 .303 .349 92 312 26 77 14 0 6 41 23 63 1 1 72 Stephen Head* rf 26 .248 .290 .360 104 403 42 100 22 1 7 47 22 77 1 1 74 Jason Donald ss 25 .238 .305 .334 96 383 53 91 18 2 5 42 32 103 5 2 69 Wes Hodges 3b 25 .247 .295 .349 113 438 41 108 22 1 7 56 28 103 3 2 70 Cord Phelps# 2b 23 .240 .318 .321 128 517 62 124 24 3 4 53 57 109 8 10 70 Beau Mills* 1b 23 .239 .283 .355 137 543 52 130 28 1 11 74 31 135 1 2 68 Tony Graffanino 2b 38 .234 .286 .349 56 209 24 49 13 1 3 25 13 40 1 0 67 Josh Barfield 2b 27 .251 .280 .343 112 402 43 101 20 1 5 45 15 78 6 3 64 Carlos Rivero ss 22 .236 .285 .319 131 501 44 118 23 2 5 58 36 107 1 1 60 Josh Rodriguez 2b 25 .224 .296 .308 95 370 43 83 13 3 4 34 37 99 6 4 60 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Choo* Av/69 Av/111 Sizemore* Av/66 Santana# Fr LaPorta Fr/187 Fr/99 Fr/101 Cabrera# Av/71 Fr/117 Peralta Av/107 Fr/94 Brown* Av/136 Av/80 Av/80 Brantley* Av/96 Vg/78 Av/83 Marte Av/112 Av/112 Valbuena* Av/105 Fr/126 Weglarz* Fr/160 Fr/160 McBride Fr Fr/128 Av/44 Av/44 Marson Av Chisenhall* Vg/144 Fr/175 Crowe# Vg/114 Av/127 Vg/114 Gimenez Fr Fr/142 Fr/170 Fr/160 Fr/160 Toregas Av Head* Av/78 Av/97 Av/97 Donald Av/127 Hodges Av/117 Fr/160 Phelps# Av/94 Mills* Av/120 Pr/132 Graffanino Vg/120 Av/92 Vg/105 Fr/120 Barfield Av/120 Av/120 Rivero Av/130 Rodriguez Av/120 Fr/155 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 ChooShin-Soo RF 33% 38% 16% 9% 5% SiebernNorm WalkerLarry HayesVon SizemoreGrady CF 60% 23% 14% 4% 0% LankfordRay BeltranCarlos EdmondsJim HafnerTravis DH 6% 21% 29% 36% 9% DowningBrian ClarkWill MayberryJohn LaPortaMatt LF 5% 16% 21% 30% 28% MenchKevin CordovaMarty QuinnMark SantanaCarlos C 20% 45% 25% 10% 1% GuldenBrad TettletonMickey PorterDarrell CabreraAsdrubal SS 23% 31% 31% 12% 3% RollinsJimmy YountRobin RenteriaEdgar BrantleyMichael CF 4% 13% 34% 35% 13% MartinezDave ReedJeremy DykstraLenny PeraltaJhonny 3B 2% 12% 23% 33% 30% WhitneyPinky BooneAaron BuecheleSteve BrownJordan LF 1% 6% 9% 21% 63% WatsonMatt AndersonGarret AmelungEd MarteAndy 3B 1% 4% 15% 35% 45% CastillaVinny TatumJim WoodsonTracy ValbuenaLuis 2B 1% 3% 9% 26% 60%CatalanottoFrank OrtizJose MoutonJames McBrideMatthew LF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% RohrmeierDan ClarkJerald WilliamsDana ChisenhallLonnie 3B 0% 0% 3% 16% 81% CooperScott SchuRick WalkerNeil WeglarzNick LF 0% 0% 1% 5% 95% BrownRoosevelt BeckerRich GentileGene CroweTrevor CF 1% 1% 5% 22% 71% SullivanCory RobersonChris SternAdam MarsonLou C 0% 2% 9% 38% 51% ThigpenCurtis GonzalezPete MooreCharlie ToregasWyatt C 0% 1% 5% 29% 66% ChavezRaul MachadoRobert HinchA.J. GimenezChris C 0% 2% 7% 28% 63% WaszgisB.J. SellersRick MoellerChad HeadStephen RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% HammondSteve MackQuinn RohrmeierDan HodgesWes 3B 0% 0% 0% 3% 96% PenningtonKen BellDavid BattleHoward DonaldJason SS 1% 2% 7% 23% 67% de la RosaTomas LeMasterJohnnie CollierLou GraffaninoTony 2B 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% SuderPete EasleyDamion WoodJason MillsBeau 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%VelasquezGuiller LahairBryan BirrielJose BarfieldJosh 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% HudlerRex LonigroGreg SojoLuis RiveroCarlos SS 0% 0% 0% 5% 95% CruzFausto ParisKelly ReesePokey RodriguezJoshua 2B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% NealMike ConnacherKevin RodriguezEdwin Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB ChooShin-Soo 34% 48% 26% 16% 4% 5% 2% 0% SizemoreGrady 10% 39% 31% 17% 3% 14% 22% 0% HafnerTravis 8% 32% 8% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% LaPortaMatt 10% 8% 10% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% SantanaCarlos 3% 17% 7% 3% 1% 0% 2% 0% CabreraAsdrubal 24% 10% 2% 0% 14% 1% 0% 0% BrantleyMichael 21% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 67% PeraltaJhonny 7% 2% 4% 0% 6% 0% 3% 0% BrownJordan 20% 4% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% MarteAndy 4% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% ValbuenaLuis 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% McBrideMatthew 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ChisenhallLonnie 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WeglarzNick 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CroweTrevor 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MarsonLou 2% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ToregasWyatt 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GimenezChris 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HeadStephen 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HodgesWes 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DonaldJason 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GraffaninoTony 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MillsBeau 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BarfieldJosh 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RiveroCarlos 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RodriguezJoshua 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Justin Masterson 25 4.47 8 8 43 20 139.0 143 69 13 58 102 101 Jake Westbrook 32 4.70 2 3 10 10 51.2 56 27 6 20 31 96 Aaron Laffey* 25 4.78 9 11 30 27 156.1 177 83 14 62 79 95 Scott Lewis* 26 4.96 4 5 16 16 74.1 83 41 11 23 48 91 Fausto Carmona 26 5.06 10 13 30 30 172.2 189 97 20 74 105 89 Hector Rondon 22 5.09 9 12 28 27 141.1 161 80 19 47 98 89 Jeremy Sowers* 27 5.21 8 12 31 30 171.0 198 99 21 60 82 87 David Huff* 25 5.24 8 11 26 26 135.2 155 79 20 46 81 86 Anthony Reyes 28 5.29 4 5 19 16 85.0 92 50 12 38 50 85 Hector Ambriz 26 5.76 7 13 28 27 145.1 175 93 22 62 81 79 Ryan Edell* 26 5.83 5 9 31 23 129.2 158 84 23 42 80 78 Michael Tejera* 33 5.91 2 5 21 8 64.0 74 42 11 32 28 77 Jack Cassel 29 5.94 5 10 23 20 119.2 154 79 16 49 64 76 Carlos Carrasco 23 5.97 8 15 30 29 161.1 194 107 27 72 107 76 Zach Jackson* 27 6.19 5 10 35 19 129.1 166 89 20 52 69 73 Jeanmar Gomez 22 6.28 5 12 27 27 133.1 167 93 22 62 81 72 Tomo Ohka 34 6.30 3 6 13 11 65.2 85 46 12 21 31 72 Kirk Saarloos 31 6.31 4 8 28 15 102.2 132 72 18 41 46 72 Kelvin de la Cruz* 22 6.44 2 6 12 12 50.1 58 36 7 41 36 70 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Chris Perez 24 3.92 3 2 69 0 64.1 54 28 8 33 72 116 Kerry Wood 33 3.93 4 2 52 0 50.1 46 22 5 21 53 115 Jensen Lewis 26 4.11 4 3 63 0 85.1 79 39 11 36 80 110 Rafael Perez* 28 4.17 4 4 73 0 77.2 78 36 7 28 68 108 Tony Sipp* 26 4.18 2 1 47 0 47.1 42 22 6 24 50 108 Joe Smith 26 4.20 2 2 60 0 49.1 48 23 5 23 41 108 Jesse Todd 24 4.54 4 4 68 0 71.1 73 36 8 27 58 100 Zach Putnam 22 4.61 4 4 40 5 80.0 86 41 7 32 56 98 Jose Veras 29 4.70 3 4 53 0 53.2 50 28 7 31 48 96 Rich Rundles* 29 4.94 3 4 52 0 51.0 54 28 5 29 37 92 Mike Gosling* 29 5.56 4 7 48 5 89.0 104 55 12 42 63 81 Ken Ray 35 5.99 3 5 34 7 70.2 83 47 10 38 43 76 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 PerezChris RP 34% 55% 11% ValverdeJose BenitezArmando SotoMario WoodKerry RP 43% 43% 14% GossageRich ShueyPaul LopezAurelio LewisJensen RP 27% 60% 13% DavisRon LaddPete WettelandJohn PerezRafael RP 24% 58% 18% HickersonBryan PlesacDan AssenmacherPaul SippTony RP 34% 46% 21% OroscoJesse HallTom McElroyChuck SmithJoe RP 25% 55% 21% CruzJuan RyanKen NelsonJeff MastersonJustin SP 9% 63% 28% NolesDickie FisherBrian KepshireKurt ToddJess RP 13% 53% 33% OrvellaChad ClontzBrad StricklandScott PutnamZach RP 12% 55% 33% OlinSteve ResopChris AcevedoJose VerasJose RP 11% 46% 42% SchiraldiCalvin HenryDwayne SchroderChris WestbrookJake SP 25% 44% 32% HernandezLivan BosioChris RuthvenDick LaffeyAaron SP 16% 58% 26% AndersonJimmy ElviraNarciso ThurmondMark RundlesRich RP 7% 41% 52% LovingierKevin MohlerMike GlynnEd LewisScott SP 17% 44% 39% DishmanGlenn HenryButch McWilliamsLarry MillerAdam SP 24% 35% 40% NolesDickie DavisStorm BoggsTommy CarmonaFausto SP 7% 58% 34% LearyTim GonzalezEnrique SeminaraFrank RondonHector SP 7% 54% 39% SuppanJeff MyersBrett BakerScott SowersJeremy SP 4% 49% 47% LathamBill MarothMike MathesAlfred HuffDavid SP 5% 41% 55% MischPatrick HenryButch PriestEddie ReyesAnthony SP 5% 39% 56% ThompsonMark CorneliusReid HendersonRod GoslingMike RP 0% 18% 82% FranklinWayne EyreScott HolzemerMark AmbrizHector SP 0% 19% 80% RichardsRusty IrelandEric ChristiansenClay EdellRyan SP 1% 19% 80% MayDarrell LeekRandy LilliquistDerek CasselJack SP 1% 17% 83% MagraneJim AugustDon ThurmanMike CarrascoCarlos SP 0% 14% 86% CrouchMatt NolascoRicky SmithRoy RayKen RP 2% 10% 87% MahomesPat WeberBen BrowerJim JacksonZach SP 0% 8% 92% StultsEric LucasGary FlohrAdam GomezJeanmar SP 0% 6% 94% OlsenKevin CornejoNate BerneroAdam OhkaTomo SP 3% 12% 85% BaldwinJames LangfordRick FernandezJared SaarloosKirk SP 1% 8% 90% RoachJason FernandezJared BellRob de la CruzKelvin SP 2% 10% 89% ChergeyDan HaigwoodDaniel OvallesJuan Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 PerezChris 34% 81% 95% 0% 49% WoodKerry 35% 81% 86% 1% 76% LewisJensen 22% 80% 64% 0% 49% PerezRafael 19% 73% 43% 2% 79% SippTony 26% 73% 86% 0% 44% SmithJoe 25% 66% 27% 1% 65% MastersonJustin 6% 60% 6% 0% 80% ToddJess 10% 60% 21% 2% 55% PutnamZach 9% 55% 3% 1% 84% VerasJose 8% 50% 44% 0% 45% WestbrookJake 10% 46% 1% 4% 64% LaffeyAaron 3% 39% 0% 1% 75% RundlesRich 4% 33% 5% 0% 76% LewisScott 3% 31% 1% 14% 29% MillerAdam 7% 41% 7% 3% 65% CarmonaFausto 0% 25% 0% 0% 52% RondonHector 1% 24% 3% 4% 33% SowersJeremy 0% 15% 0% 2% 41% HuffDavid 0% 14% 0% 2% 21% ReyesAnthony 1% 19% 0% 0% 27% GoslingMike 0% 9% 2% 0% 33% AmbrizHector 0% 3% 0% 0% 16% EdellRyan 0% 4% 0% 4% 6% CasselJack 0% 4% 0% 1% 32% CarrascoCarlos 0% 2% 1% 0% 9% RayKen 2% 9% 4% 0% 32% JacksonZach 0% 1% 0% 0% 13% GomezJeanmar 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% OhkaTomo 1% 6% 0% 14% 13% SaarloosKirk 0% 3% 0% 3% 12% de la CruzKelvin 0% 4% 7% 0% 42% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ CabreraAsdrubal .277 .347 .404 2172 8099 1252 2242 493 42 151 1161 846 1660 135 51 97 PeraltaJhonny .262 .328 .418 1562 5923 812 1554 331 24 180 847 561 1453 14 20 95 ChooShin-Soo .277 .369 .448 1398 5028 802 1395 307 43 155 821 659 1344 95 32 114 SizemoreGrady .258 .360 .458 2054 8212 1387 2120 446 83 342 1131 1176 1983 238 78 114 HafnerTravis .269 .374 .489 1239 4345 663 1168 264 13 222 801 675 1020 7 6 127 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ CarmonaFausto 98 121 0 4.92 315 284 1671 1791 179 732 1039 92 WestbrookJake 76 79 0 4.43 252 212 1341 1451 125 440 748 100 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
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I don't know why I'm so drawn to the little oddities about the career projections, but I am. Sizemore only getting an extra ~100 career AB over Cabrera and playing fewer games just doesn't seem right. I guess he can be a utility guy, Alex Cora type for a long time but that one seems strange.
Masterson, Reliever: 4-3, 3.78
So, he still stays the best starter as full-time starter.
For those wondering, ZiPS is "trained" to look out for pitchers that have obvious role changes (so if a guy that's been 100% starting has most recent year of 100% relieving, for example, ZiPS assumes he's a full-time reliever now). In essence, from quality of pitcher, start/relief use of pitcher, and changes in both, I made a model of predicting future start/relief roles for initial pitcher projections.
My judgment doesn't come in until I'm making a roster and depth chart the last build. Masterson will, barring some unusual situation, have a full-time starter projection come March.
Also, Jason Grilli will be added.
1. I thought Cabrera was supposed to be a defensive whiz. Sure seemed like he was a couple years ago. Still, very nice comps for him -- and easy to see how a player like that would hold onto a starting job for a long time (i.e. in response to #1).
2. So I should hold off on the Grady for the HoF campaign.
3. An ugly set of comps for Matt LaPorta.
4. I had to look up Brad Gulden -- that must have been one odd career. Lots of injuries? Horrendous defense? (look at his minors numbers or that comment won't make sense)
5. I am surprised that Santana is projected to walk that much. I thought minor-league walk rates weren't supposed to translate very well (from Mike Emeigh maybe? you?). I'll take the under on the walks, at least for his rookie year.
6. Guitar fans hope that Santana and Grant Green (A's) have long careers.
7. The rotation does stink but at least it looks like you get 8 or 9 deep before hitting true disasters. I guess that's assuming health for Carmona and Westbrook though.
8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:
a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?
Probably some mix of the 3 but is there a rough %age you could give us on each? (and obviously each of those comes with huge caveats about uncertainty.)
8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:
a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?
Giving straight percentages on these is an answer I don't even know how to tackle.
When it comes down to it, I'm doing the same thing as one would do when calculating generic playing aging in baseball history. I'm just doing it on the fly with similar players being a bigger part of the model.
Individual comps are most important the nearer the time frame - as the years you project become farther in the future, the aging becomes more generic. Even then, specific individuals aren't really all that important in the model as a whole, even the top few guys.
Man, this pitching staff is ROUGH.
Wieters
2008: 291/359/404
2009: 281/339/422
Santana
2008: 260/353/454
2009: 243/343/416
They'd both get better projections if they played other positions - young catchers are very risky.
Well, it's not quite zero, just rounded. ZiPS actually says 1-in-229.
Remember, though, those are the odds of him stealing 30 bases at the projected playing time. Not counting reached on error in either case, ZiPS has Sizemore standing on first base 168 times in his projection while that number is 229 for 2007 and 202 in 2008.
With 750 PA, the odds of 30 stolen bases increases to 24%
seems that Adam Miller's projection got lost (although he is ODDIBE).
Also the Indians picked up ex Padre Luis A. Rodriguez to "play" the Carroll role - any chance of getting his projection added in ? ditto for Saul Rivera.Thanks
Two Hall of Very Good shortstops with eight all-star appearances and an MVP between them. And also Robin Yount.
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