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Monday, October 19, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies
In years past, my primary criticism of Dan O'Dowd has been the lack of planning. He's always been a solid evaluator of talent and a solid adminstrator, but the goals, both short and long-term, were always a little schizo.This year, however, O'Dowd did a great job. A lot of the indecision and alternating between being too patient and too impatient with assorted players wasn't present in 2009 and I think that difference makes this edition of the Rockies a clearly better team than the 2007 team.
One can't overlook the fact that the team, after the season started, was generally pretty healthy. 5 starters got enough playing time to qualify for the batting title and a 6th, Ian Stewart, was very close. Only 10 pitchers got starts for the Rockies and only 5 pitchers got more than 2 starts.
However, even when you take the general lack of injury emergencies, O'Dowd made a lot of good decisions and most importantly, never displayed panic. For example, when Atkins started out terribly, the team didn't freak out and trade Jimenez for Melvin Mora or something, they took heart in still having Ian Stewart around, even if he hardly had a breakout season. Same goes for the losses of Holliday and Fuentes. Matt Holliday was and remains a terrific player, but the Rockies do have outfielders that can hit a bit and filled the position well, which minimized the damage of the loss. When Carlos Gonzalez finally had a big breakout year in the minors, the Rockies rightfully gave him a chance to succeed in the majors, not fretting too much over previous play or that there were too many young hitters on the team (Helton was the only older-than-30 position player to contribute much).
Nowhere was there a player like Willy Taveras, who essentially kept playing because that was plan A. There were no Steve Finley disasters and there was no giving rotation jobs to players like Mark Redman or Livan Hernandez.
Not every player worked out, but I don't think there was a single player on the Rockies that was given a bigger role, at the start of the season, than one could reasonably expect them to handle. And that's good planning.
For example, Corpas was pretty weak this year but the Rockies had a reasonable basis at the start of the season to think he would pitch better than he did. Not all moves work out, but when you're starting a season with Willy Taveras as your leadoff hitter and intentionally give playing time to Livan "Pitcher of Fail" Hernandez, it's not luck that's causing you to lose games.
There are no huge stars on the Rockies, but they're a very solid team from top to bottom (kind of the opposite of the Twins) and do a great job at picking up bullpen arms on the cheap.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Todd Helton* 1b 36 .291 .397 .442 122 446 59 130 27 2 12 62 80 65 0 1 119 Seth Smith* lf 27 .289 .366 .473 144 425 63 123 25 4 15 64 51 74 6 2 117 Brad Hawpe* rf 31 .264 .367 .468 136 470 66 124 27 3 21 80 75 135 1 3 116 Troy Tulowitzki ss 25 .280 .355 .487 138 522 83 146 29 5 23 78 60 104 10 8 117 Jason Giambi* 1b 39 .229 .364 .434 97 297 37 68 14 1 15 48 55 76 1 1 107 Chris Iannetta c 27 .241 .353 .437 100 323 43 78 17 2 14 52 48 83 0 1 105 Carlos Gonzalez* cf 24 .270 .335 .459 139 488 72 132 27 7 17 65 44 103 16 5 104 Garrett Atkins 3b 30 .267 .335 .428 133 472 61 126 24 2 16 76 49 79 1 0 97 Matt Murton rf 28 .276 .341 .417 126 420 59 116 25 2 10 57 39 60 7 2 96 Ian Stewart* 3b 25 .247 .333 .446 145 469 71 116 25 4 20 72 55 132 7 4 101 Darin Holcomb 3b 24 .280 .341 .410 125 483 56 135 29 2 10 58 42 59 4 2 95 Ryan Spilborghs lf 30 .268 .342 .418 117 328 49 88 18 2 9 47 37 62 8 4 97 Paul McAnulty* lf 29 .253 .337 .407 112 371 35 94 20 2 11 45 46 86 0 1 93 Mark Bellhorn# 1b 35 .241 .332 .405 80 237 26 57 13 1 8 32 32 63 0 0 91 Matthew Miller lf 27 .278 .335 .394 136 518 62 144 28 4 8 74 42 76 3 3 89 Dexter Fowler cf 24 .261 .350 .379 117 417 63 109 22 6 5 35 54 101 20 10 90 Christian Colonel 3b 28 .271 .324 .389 124 442 51 120 24 2 8 57 33 70 4 4 85 Kenny Perez# 1b 28 .267 .321 .377 91 281 27 75 15 2 4 33 23 40 2 1 82 Mike McCoy ss 29 .257 .339 .345 123 412 59 106 18 3 4 38 52 69 20 6 79 Clint Barmes 2b 31 .259 .307 .413 130 467 56 121 25 4 13 52 25 84 10 7 86 Edwin Bellorin c 28 .276 .314 .386 74 272 23 75 16 1 4 42 14 36 1 1 81 Michael McKenry c 25 .244 .321 .380 106 397 40 97 22 1 10 48 41 94 3 4 82 Eric Young Jr.# 2b 25 .257 .328 .357 132 518 84 133 22 6 6 38 47 100 45 18 79 Paul Phillips c 33 .272 .314 .368 68 228 21 62 11 1 3 21 15 29 0 0 77 Dan Ortmeier# 1b 29 .249 .313 .358 91 341 36 85 15 2 6 44 29 73 9 3 75 Omar Quintanilla* 2b 28 .250 .320 .351 96 248 32 62 14 1 3 21 24 56 2 0 75 Yorvit Torrealba c 31 .254 .316 .371 77 264 28 67 14 1 5 34 22 51 1 2 79 Christopher Nelson ss 24 .251 .305 .373 81 327 39 82 18 2 6 43 24 76 9 4 76 Chris Frey* cf 26 .268 .314 .356 123 410 46 110 19 4 3 33 25 64 12 4 74 Jon Herrera# ss 25 .265 .325 .342 123 427 54 113 16 4 3 37 36 61 15 7 74 Hector Gomez ss 22 .244 .281 .369 104 442 48 108 23 4 8 44 20 102 11 7 68 Ryan Harvey rf 25 .219 .267 .374 100 356 31 78 17 1 12 50 21 114 2 1 65 Sal Fasano c 38 .223 .282 .346 59 188 15 42 9 1 4 15 10 53 1 0 63 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Helton* Av/56 Smith* Av/63 Pr/76 Av/63 Hawpe* Pr/150 Tulowitzki Av/71 Giambi* Pr/135 Iannetta Fr Gonzalez* Vg/121 Av/121 Vg/121 Atkins Fr/153 Fr/93 Murton Av/135 Av/135 Stewart* Fr/121 Av/123 Av/123 Av/123 Holcomb Fr/112 Spilborghs Av/88 Fr/159 Av/132 McAnulty* Av/192 Pr/94 Pr/94 Bellhorn# Fr/75 Fr/143 Fr/115 Pr/121 Miller Av/84 Av/84 Fowler Av/146 Colonel Av/125 Fr/133 Fr/79 Fr/79 Perez# Fr/74 Pr/126 Pr/146 McCoy Av/135 Av/103 Av/116 Av/121 Av/121 Av/121 Barmes Vg/117 Vg/84 Bellorin Av McKenry Vg Young# Vg/145 Av/145 Phillips Av Ortmeier# Av/108 Av/99 Fr/121 Fr/72 Quintanilla* Av/106 Av/95 Torrealba Fr Nelson Fr/140 Frey* Av/95 Av/95 Av/95 Herrera# Av/80 Av/107 Gomez Vg/163 Harvey Av/110 Av/110 Fasano Fr * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 SmithSeth LF 22% 34% 23% 15% 6% SmithDwight GabrielsonLen CombsEarle HeltonTodd 1B 10% 32% 29% 24% 4% JoynerWally GraceMark OlerudJohn TulowitzkiTroy SS 54% 26% 15% 4% 1% CrosettiFrankie SpeierChris BellJay HawpeBrad RF 13% 31% 24% 21% 11% DrewJ.D. CampbellBruce MondayRick GonzalezCarlos CF 23% 27% 33% 15% 2% LankfordRayGrandersonCurtis BostonDaryl GiambiJason 1B 4% 14% 21% 39% 23% KillebrewHarmon McCoveyWillie MuellerHeinie IannettaChris C 24% 42% 22% 10% 2% RiceDel WilsonTom KellerJerry MurtonMatt RF 2% 8% 16% 32% 42% BerryKen HershbergerMike WilliamsWalt AtkinsGarrett 3B 4% 15% 25% 30% 26% WertDon DahlgrenBabe JurakEd StewartIan 3B 3% 19% 34% 31% 13% KoskieCorey TeahenMark HinskeEric SpilborghsRyan LF 2% 8% 12% 27% 51% HallNoah CordovaMarty SpencerShane HolcombDarin 3B 1% 9% 21% 36% 33% ShortRick CypretGreg BellBuddy McAnultyPaul DH 0% 1% 4% 28% 67% BarkerKevin WardPreston TolentinoJose MillerMatt LF 0% 3% 4% 15% 78% JohnsonReed JamesChrisRobaysMauriceVan FowlerDexter CF 2% 6% 27% 43% 21% JavierStan LathamChris CedenoRoger BellhornMark 1B 2% 2% 6% 28% 63% de la RosaTomas ClarkTony SierraRuben ColonelChristian 3B 0% 3% 7% 23% 67% KaskoEddie DuganJoe ShortRick BarmesClint 2B 6% 6% 10% 21% 56% JavierJulian LansingMike MartinBilly BellorinEdwin C 0% 5% 18% 44% 33% SmithHal KluttzClyde TaylorZack PerezKenny 1B 0% 0% 1% 9% 90% SeguiDavid EstesDoc DiazAlex McCoyMike 1B 0% 1% 2% 15% 82% FloresGil MormanRuss WilsonTack YoungEricJr 2B 1% 4% 11% 30% 54% LirianoNelson FigginsChone CarterJeff PhillipsPaul C 0% 3% 13% 46% 38% SpencerRoy HemsleyRollie OrtizJunior FreyChristopher CF 0% 1% 5% 21% 73% GodwinTyrell CrosbyBubba ChavezEndy McKenryMichael C 0% 3% 13% 41% 42% TurnerChris NicholsCarl BlancoHenry NelsonChristopher SS 1% 5% 16% 29% 49% DzurillaMike LandryTodd NowakChris QuintanillaOmar 2B 1% 2% 3% 11% 83% WilfongRob EricksonMatt GreenNick OrtmeierDan 1B 0% 0% 0% 4% 95% FoxEric HolkeWalter BenzingerTodd TorrealbaYorvit C 0% 3% 10% 37% 50% WilsonDan CosteChris MahoneyMike HerreraJonathan SS 0% 1% 12% 36% 51% FonvilleChad IzturisCesar MetzgerRoger GomezHector SS 0% 0% 2% 12% 86% HallBill CosmeCaonabo SalazarAngel HarveyRyan RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% StewartCaleb WilsonMichael CarsonMatt FasanoSal C 0% 1% 2% 9% 87% DifeliceMike BordersPat O'BrienCharlie Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB SmithSeth 33% 36% 27% 11% 1% 3% 3% 0% HeltonTodd 37% 79% 11% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% TulowitzkiTroy 22% 22% 37% 12% 3% 7% 21% 0% HawpeBrad 10% 37% 19% 7% 1% 1% 8% 0% GonzalezCarlos 12% 7% 16% 3% 0% 19% 2% 1% GiambiJason 1% 35% 8% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% IannettaChris 3% 23% 9% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% MurtonMatt 19% 10% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AtkinsGarrett 11% 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% StewartIan 1% 4% 7% 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% SpilborghsRyan 14% 12% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HolcombDarin 19% 8% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% McAnultyPaul 3% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MillerMatt 19% 6% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% FowlerDexter 6% 16% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% 6% BellhornMark 3% 9% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ColonelChristian 13% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BarmesClint 9% 2% 5% 1% 1% 4% 2% 0% BellorinEdwin 20% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PerezKenny 14% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% McCoyMike 5% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% YoungEricJr 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 99% PhillipsPaul 20% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FreyChristopher 11% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% McKenryMichael 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NelsonChristopher 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% QuintanillaOmar 6% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% OrtmeierDan 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TorrealbaYorvit 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HerreraJonathan 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% GomezHector 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% HarveyRyan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FasanoSal 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Ubaldo Jimenez 26 3.98 14 12 34 34 206.0 191 91 16 89 167 118 Aaron Cook 31 4.32 9 9 27 27 166.2 187 80 17 43 74 108 Jason Marquis 31 4.44 11 12 30 30 184.1 194 91 18 68 95 107 Jeff Francis* 29 4.48 7 7 21 21 130.2 143 65 15 40 88 106 Jason Hammel 27 4.53 7 8 37 22 149.0 162 75 16 44 100 104 Jorge de la Rosa* 29 4.68 10 13 32 29 165.1 166 86 19 6 143 101 Jose Contreras 38 4.76 9 11 27 26 151.1 163 80 16 56 102 99 Jhoulys Chacin 22 4.89 9 12 31 26 141.2 148 77 16 63 86 97 Christian Friedrich* 22 4.91 4 5 19 19 88.0 91 48 11 43 70 96 Greg Smith* 26 5.06 5 8 21 21 110.1 117 62 17 43 63 93 Esmil Rogers 24 5.21 7 11 28 27 150.1 170 87 18 61 85 90 Franklin Morales* 24 5.21 5 8 41 17 105.1 108 61 14 63 72 90 Russ Ortiz 36 5.26 4 7 25 16 101.0 114 59 12 49 66 89 Kurt Birkins* 29 5.36 3 5 35 12 82.1 95 49 10 39 55 88 Samuel Deduno 26 5.39 6 10 25 25 133.2 138 80 12 94 91 88 Chaz Roe 23 5.43 4 7 20 20 116.0 132 70 15 48 55 87 Greg Reynolds 24 5.47 2 4 11 11 52.2 62 32 7 19 22 86 Josh Fogg 33 5.53 4 7 29 16 107.1 122 66 18 39 55 85 Adam Eaton 32 5.98 5 11 27 23 134.0 164 89 22 48 72 79 Alan Johnson 26 6.11 6 13 27 26 154.2 196 105 25 60 62 77 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Huston Street 26 3.14 5 3 63 0 63.0 50 22 6 17 71 147 Rafael Betancourt 35 3.38 4 2 63 0 64.0 54 24 6 18 65 142 Taylor Buchholz 28 3.79 5 4 37 3 54.2 54 23 5 14 38 125 Joe Beimel* 33 3.99 3 3 73 0 56.1 59 25 4 21 33 116 Matt Daley 28 4.04 3 2 66 0 64.2 60 29 7 25 59 117 Manuel Corpas 27 4.16 3 3 63 0 62.2 67 29 6 16 41 111 Matt Herges 40 4.20 5 4 56 0 64.1 65 30 6 21 43 114 Joel Peralta 34 4.50 3 3 55 0 68.0 68 34 9 21 53 106 Randy Flores* 34 4.50 1 1 62 0 46.0 51 23 4 17 34 104 Alan Embree* 40 4.67 2 2 52 0 44.1 45 23 5 17 34 101 Matt Belisle 30 4.76 4 5 41 11 102.0 117 54 11 25 61 99 Ryan Speier 30 4.84 2 3 55 0 57.2 61 31 6 28 34 98 Shane Lindsay 25 4.96 2 3 34 0 32.2 30 18 3 28 30 96 Ryan Mattheus 26 4.97 2 3 36 0 38.0 40 21 5 18 27 95 Juan Rincon 31 5.16 3 4 53 0 59.1 59 34 7 29 51 92 Scott Munter 30 5.22 3 5 51 0 58.2 69 34 6 27 25 89 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 StreetHuston RP 82% 17% 1% PapelbonJonathan JenksBobby OsunaAntonio BetancourtRafael RP 73% 26% 1% HoffmanTrevor WorrellTodd HenkeTom BuchholzTaylor RP 50% 44% 6% HaynesHeath BeckRod ValdezSergio JimenezUbaldo SP 77% 22% 0% KileDarryl GubiczaMark WilsonDon DaleyMatt RP 43% 47% 10% MiceliDan RobergeBert AndradeSteve BeimelJoe RP 42% 47% 11% ZerbeChad MirabellaPaul EarleyArnold HergesMatt RP 40% 42% 18% BrocailDoug MesaJose JonesTodd CorpasManuel RP 32% 52% 16% LewisColby TamJeff SantiagoJose CookAaron SP 50% 39% 12% BarrJim PorterfieldBob HerbertRay MarquisJason SP 47% 43% 10% CulpRay OlivaresOmar HamiltonJoey FrancisJeff SP 42% 51% 8% RedmanMark HaneyChris HalamaJohn PeraltaJoel RP 20% 56% 24% St. ClaireRandy WhiteRick MeachamRusty FloresRandy RP 25% 48% 28% GroomBuddy MunozMike MurphyRob HammelJason SP 38% 54% 7% MendozaRamiro RaggioBrady NicholsRod EmbreeAlan RP 21% 44% 35% StantonMike HoneycuttRick GroomBuddy de la RosaJorge SP 28% 60% 11% MahlerMickey LollarTim LillyTed BelisleMatt RP 11% 54% 35% ArnoldTony LynchEd SagerA.J. ContrerasJose SP 28% 56% 17% MorrisJack CandiottiTom WilliamsWoody SpeierRyan RP 14% 43% 42% BumsteadMike GreeneRick BullardJason ChacinJhoulys SP 19% 61% 20% BloodDarin SellersJeff MendozaReynol FriedrichChristian SP 22% 55% 23% CapuanoChris KalitaTim MyersRandy LindsayShane RP 16% 34% 50% VoylesBrad CasillaSantiago BruneyBrian MattheusRyan RP 11% 46% 42% LeeDavid RyanMatt EllsworthSteve SmithGreg SP 13% 56% 31% SwanRuss WatsonAllen EstradaHoracio RinconJuan RP 5% 39% 57% HarrisReggie ButcherMike HoldridgeDavid RogersEsmil SP 6% 56% 38% CummingsSteve KellySteve LoiselleRich MoralesFranklin SP 2% 37% 61% PottsMike CarmanDon PulsipherBill MunterScott RP 6% 35% 59% WagnerGary ToddJim MontagueJohn OrtizRuss SP 9% 43% 48% BurttDennis GlynnRyan BenesAlan DedunoSamuel SP 5% 47% 47% CocanowerJaime LewisDerrick DeSalvoMatt BirkinsKurt SP 2% 30% 68% WhiteMatt TejeraMichael LerchRandy RoeChaz SP 5% 46% 49% PooleJim EstrellaLeo MecerodGeorge ReynoldsGreg SP 13% 37% 50% BoggsTommy HaigwoodDaniel McDonaldKirk FoggJosh SP 8% 33% 59% EllisRobert BurttDennis SmithPete EatonAdam SP 1% 20% 79% DickeyR.A. NavarroJaime FernandezJared JohnsonAlan SP 0% 14% 86% AhearnePat MiddletonKyle SparksSteve Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 StreetHuston 77% 99% 96% 27% 72% BetancourtRafael 66% 97% 85% 24% 69% BuchholzTaylor 50% 88% 4% 35% 73% JimenezUbaldo 28% 95% 18% 0% 95% DaleyMatt 36% 87% 48% 1% 64% BeimelJoe 35% 81% 1% 6% 81% HergesMatt 34% 74% 4% 13% 67% CorpasManuel 25% 79% 1% 34% 74% CookAaron 18% 70% 1% 32% 64% MarquisJason 11% 72% 0% 4% 68% FrancisJeff 9% 68% 2% 8% 55% PeraltaJoel 15% 64% 11% 12% 45% FloresRandy 18% 65% 11% 5% 71% HammelJason 6% 68% 1% 9% 67% EmbreeAlan 15% 57% 19% 6% 60% de la RosaJorge 5% 59% 38% 0% 46% BelisleMatt 9% 52% 1% 40% 59% ContrerasJose 6% 52% 5% 2% 64% SpeierRyan 11% 51% 2% 1% 68% ChacinJhoulys 3% 44% 0% 0% 56% FriedrichChristia 5% 47% 18% 0% 53% LindsayShane 16% 50% 52% 0% 85% MattheusRyan 11% 49% 9% 1% 44% SmithGreg 1% 36% 0% 1% 19% RinconJuan 5% 36% 33% 0% 54% RogersEsmil 0% 24% 0% 0% 49% MoralesFranklin 1% 26% 1% 0% 39% MunterScott 4% 29% 0% 1% 76% OrtizRuss 2% 26% 4% 0% 50% DedunoSamuel 1% 19% 1% 0% 82% BirkinsKurt 1% 22% 2% 0% 48% RoeChaz 0% 17% 0% 0% 35% ReynoldsGreg 3% 23% 0% 8% 53% FoggJosh 2% 17% 0% 4% 18% EatonAdam 0% 5% 1% 2% 13% JohnsonAlan 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ GiambiJason .277 .401 .518 2176 7316 1243 2025 409 12 444 1441 1389 1566 21 14 140 HeltonTodd .315 .417 .535 2205 7962 1397 2511 587 41 359 1384 1387 1106 36 31 133 TulowitzkiTroy .265 .344 .449 2217 8323 1289 2202 415 69 328 1153 988 1684 121 34 104 HawpeBrad .267 .365 .466 1572 5342 739 1426 304 38 227 903 820 1487 18 34 112 AtkinsGarrett .275 .340 .432 1358 4875 651 1339 258 14 161 800 488 770 13 6 96 IannettaChris .231 .344 .410 1253 4037 517 932 198 26 158 624 594 1053 0 13 95 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ ContrerasJose 104 104 0 4.73 286 268 1626 1688 180 591 1149 99 CookAaron 136 122 0 4.48 412 381 2414 2776 232 693 1029 106 JimenezUbaldo 206 182 0 4.21 527 525 3159 2940 272 1466 2599 111 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 19, 2009 at 06:09 PM | 28 comment(s)
Related News: Colorado, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Colorado, Projections, ZIPS
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i've actually been following jimenez since 2005, and i'm just in awe of his progression. that he's come from where he was, and that he's turned into what he's turned into is exactly the reason i'm looking to break into this business.
Jimenez is close. They seem to trust him with high pitch counts and he didn't seem to wear down towards the end of the season, so his ability to go deep into games was a nice boost. NLDS was kind of his season in a nutshell, though over the course the season his games were far more heavily weighted towards the game 4 heights rather than the game 1 implosion. He occasionally loses command.
Or, I guess I could have just said Josh Fogg was 3rd on the team in relief innings.
O'Dowd has some interesting decisions on what to do for 2010. Betancourt was good, but has an expensive option ($5.4 million). Morales was good at times; it seems his control is barely good enough for relief, so it's hard to see him competing for rotation spot at this point. He's sort of the flip side of the Ubaldo Jimenez story; great arm, but he's never gained any consistency or control.
I don't envy trying to protect most of the players due to their youth. Tulo's projection would have looked great this time last year, now it looks disappointing.
I figured Gonzalez's projection would look something like that. Given that he's always been praised for his toolsiness, might he have turned the corner with the result that he's better than his projection? Your MLE's for his AAA stats in 09 and his actual Rockies stats were pretty close - .359/.520 MLE, .353/.525 for the Rockies.
Ian Stewart's comps are interesting. None of them strike me has having his power.
Finally, Smith's projection is pretty close to what he did this year if you subtract his ridiculous .472 / .574 / .861 line has a PH (47 PA). He didn't face many lefties this year, fwiw, and seemed to have fairly big splits in the minors.
Dan, does ZIPS take into account when a young player like Gonzalez has such a severe split between his first and second half numbers? Or the better question would be: Is there any evidence that we should expect him to perform, going forward, more like he did in his second half? Gonzalez played like a minor leaguer in the first half and like a Hall of Famer in the second half. I'd presume that bodes well for him, but I certainly haven't studied the issue.
I always find it entertaining to look at crappy veterans' comps, like Adam Eaton's. It's weird to me to see a knuckler on there, though I guess any stat-based approach (unless it relied heavily on WP/PB?) would have trouble picking them out of a crowd.
His case doesn't look great by advanced stats because there have been so many good hitters in his era. Hall voters may like his avg and his gamer-ness, but 359 HR and 1384 RBI doesn't look impressive for a firstbaseman who played in Coors, and it seems mainstream sportswriters actually over-correct for Coors.
Hawpe's projection stinks (.367 / .468, OPS+ of 116). His last 4 seasons OPS+ have been 120, 129, 123, 130 with a low OPS of .879. Is that the effects of being 31?
Hawpe's just not the type that ages well. When his bat speed slows just a tinge, his $H is going to drop like a rock. He was 15 points above his normal as it is.
Dan, does ZIPS take into account when a young player like Gonzalez has such a severe split between his first and second half numbers?
I've never found anything there. Maybe someone else with a different approach has eked something out, but I've found no real value to knowing when, within a season, a player's stats were collected (except, of course, from specific injuries).
I figured Gonzalez's projection would look something like that. Given that he's always been praised for his toolsiness, might he have turned the corner with the result that he's better than his projection? Your MLE's for his AAA stats in 09 and his actual Rockies stats were pretty close - .359/.520 MLE, .353/.525 for the Rockies.
He did as much at improving his projection as anyone could. If memory serves, I had him projected at like a 70 for 2009 after a few pretty bad seasons and now he's projected at 104. It's still too soon to be sure that he's turned the corner (see Corey Patterson or Chris Singleton or others).
He does, but the co-pay is 100% of the cost of the care.
he had a K/BB/IP ratio of 198/85/218, which is pretty damn great
I'll call that good. He'll have to get the K/BB into the 3 range to be a real stud I'd think. Based on the projection, that would involve dropping his BB rate by 1/3 which isn't easy.
So if Helton hits those numbers (which seem quite attainable, as it looks like it requires around .259/.372/.392 in 1457 AB's), does he sniff the Hall?
I seriously doubt it. 2500 hits, 350 HR just doesn't cut it in this day and age, especially after making a reasonable adjustment for Coors. Adding to that, he's never finished better than 5th in MVP voting. He made 5 AS games which isn't bad but isn't noteworthy from an HoF perspective. Three GG, generally mediocre team performance, horrible postseason performance (211/303/281). Outside of 2000, he's never led the league in anything but OBP a couple of times.
Coors or no Coors, his 2000 probably deserved more respect. He led the league in BA, OBP, SLG, RBI, hits, total bases and doubles and was 2nd in runs and 3rd in OPS+. But he did finish 5th in the MVP and it is hard to place him ahead of Kent, Bonds or Piazza (Edmonds, yes).
Man, 2000. Those were the days eh? 19 players, AL and NL, qualified for the batting title and posted an OPS of 1000 or better (plus Ellis Burks at 458 PA). In 2009, that was down to 3.
Ianetta was the one guy they seemed to lose patience with. I don't know if they've lost it forever or not.
The Rox are in an interesting position. Ideally they'd trade both Atkins and Hawpe. They're reasonably expensive (but not hugely so) and, if you have faith in Stewart, Gonzalez and Smith, pretty superfluous on this team. Hawpe is definitely a "better to trade a year early than a year late" kinda guy and Atkins (it turns out) might have been such a guy last year. I'm not sure how much you get back for either -- nothing dramatic but maybe some nice relief arms.
Darin Holcomb seems like he gets a better projection than other Tulsa players relative to his stats and age. Any idea why?
I know I asked Dan before about EY2's BABIP, but this year's projection is even worse than last year's, with a worse K rate. Was his season at the Springs that bad? The projection is worse than his MLE. (It's not that I'm such a fan--his numbers don't look great to me. It's just that there seems to be a high level of enthusiasm among Rockies fans for the guy. He's fast, but I don't think he's going to hit enough to start.)
Lastly, how do you do the defensive ratings, esp. for minor leaguers? The way it's reported around Denver is that EY2's D at 2nd is suspect.
Thanks, Dan. Would it be possible to see a set of SS comps for Nelson? I'm curious what other guys like him turned out like (though if Chris Nowak could play the middle infield, he might have had a an actual career).
Only until Torrealba's BABIP returns to normal levels, rather than the .390 it was in the second half of '09. When they're both hitting .250, Iannetta is clearly a better player because of his power and walks. Even when Torrealba is hitting .290 and Iannetta is hitting .228, that point is debatable.
Absolutely agreed. His numbers seem slightly lower than I expected...all the way across the board. But hey, he'll strike out slightly less as well. I understand an age argument for Hawpe (though I didn't expect it to be so dramatic, 30/31 isn't that aged), but figured Tulo would look a little more impressive seeing as he hasn't entered his 'prime' offensive years.
Mostly, I don't get how Eric Young Jr. gets worse projections (even if only slightly) than last years, when he performed better, overall, in AAA this season than in AA last. Did his call up numbers hurt him that much?
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