what do other people think of ubaldo jimenez? his fastball, groundball tendencies, and ability to get a strikeout are pretty much exactly what i look for when evaluating a pitcher. he had a K/BB/IP ratio of 198/85/218, which is pretty damn great, but i'm wondering if he can't take the next step and really launch himself into the conversation for best pitcher in baseball.



i've actually been following jimenez since 2005, and i'm just in awe of his progression. that he's come from where he was, and that he's turned into what he's turned into is exactly the reason i'm looking to break into this business.

Well, you've been following him; his improvement has been impressive. He works at his game; he's a pretty good fielder and even his hitting seemed to improve.

Jimenez is close. They seem to trust him with high pitch counts and he didn't seem to wear down towards the end of the season, so his ability to go deep into games was a nice boost. NLDS was kind of his season in a nutshell, though over the course the season his games were far more heavily weighted towards the game 4 heights rather than the game 1 implosion. He occasionally loses command.

No projection for Marquis?

Interesting comments about O'Dowd's bullpens. This year it sort of blew up on him, save for Huston Street and the unexpected contributions of Matt Daley, and was a serious weakness in the first half. Of the 7 relievers on the NLDS roster (not counting Marquis), 3 were on the opening day roster, but Morales was the #5 starter, and Belisle spent most of the season in AAA after being lousy in April/May.

Or, I guess I could have just said Josh Fogg was 3rd on the team in relief innings.

O'Dowd has some interesting decisions on what to do for 2010. Betancourt was good, but has an expensive option ($5.4 million). Morales was good at times; it seems his control is barely good enough for relief, so it's hard to see him competing for rotation spot at this point. He's sort of the flip side of the Ubaldo Jimenez story; great arm, but he's never gained any consistency or control.

Hawpe's projection stinks (.367 / .468, OPS+ of 116). His last 4 seasons OPS+ have been 120, 129, 123, 130 with a low OPS of .879. Is that the effects of being 31? Thank god he has his defense to fall back on.

I don't envy trying to protect most of the players due to their youth. Tulo's projection would have looked great this time last year, now it looks disappointing.

I figured Gonzalez's projection would look something like that. Given that he's always been praised for his toolsiness, might he have turned the corner with the result that he's better than his projection? Your MLE's for his AAA stats in 09 and his actual Rockies stats were pretty close - .359/.520 MLE, .353/.525 for the Rockies.

Ian Stewart's comps are interesting. None of them strike me has having his power.

Finally, Smith's projection is pretty close to what he did this year if you subtract his ridiculous .472 / .574 / .861 line has a PH (47 PA). He didn't face many lefties this year, fwiw, and seemed to have fairly big splits in the minors.

Two of Ubaldo's top three comps died in midcareer, which can't be a good sign.

Dan, does ZIPS take into account when a young player like Gonzalez has such a severe split between his first and second half numbers? Or the better question would be: Is there any evidence that we should expect him to perform, going forward, more like he did in his second half? Gonzalez played like a minor leaguer in the first half and like a Hall of Famer in the second half. I'd presume that bodes well for him, but I certainly haven't studied the issue.

I assume it is a mistake that Nelson is treated as a 1b in the ODDIBE/comp section?

I'm pretty sure that I've seen studies that have looked at 1H/2H splits and found no future predictive value, even broken down by age. Not sure how rigorous those were (there are many potential confounding factors here, not the least of which is selection bias.)

I always find it entertaining to look at crappy veterans' comps, like Adam Eaton's. It's weird to me to see a knuckler on there, though I guess any stat-based approach (unless it relied heavily on WP/PB?) would have trouble picking them out of a crowd.

So if Helton hits those numbers (which seem quite attainable, as it looks like it requires around .259/.372/.392 in 1457 AB's), does he sniff the Hall?

His case doesn't look great by advanced stats because there have been so many good hitters in his era. Hall voters may like his avg and his gamer-ness, but 359 HR and 1384 RBI doesn't look impressive for a firstbaseman who played in Coors, and it seems mainstream sportswriters actually over-correct for Coors.

Since Sal Fasano gets a projection, does that he mean he gets projected Major League health insurance, too?

Come on Matt Murton!

I'll add Marquis - don't know where he got off to. I'll fix Nelson as well.

Hawpe's projection stinks (.367 / .468, OPS+ of 116). His last 4 seasons OPS+ have been 120, 129, 123, 130 with a low OPS of .879. Is that the effects of being 31?

Hawpe's just not the type that ages well. When his bat speed slows just a tinge, his $H is going to drop like a rock. He was 15 points above his normal as it is.

Dan, does ZIPS take into account when a young player like Gonzalez has such a severe split between his first and second half numbers?

I've never found anything there. Maybe someone else with a different approach has eked something out, but I've found no real value to knowing when, within a season, a player's stats were collected (except, of course, from specific injuries).


I figured Gonzalez's projection would look something like that. Given that he's always been praised for his toolsiness, might he have turned the corner with the result that he's better than his projection? Your MLE's for his AAA stats in 09 and his actual Rockies stats were pretty close - .359/.520 MLE, .353/.525 for the Rockies.


He did as much at improving his projection as anyone could. If memory serves, I had him projected at like a 70 for 2009 after a few pretty bad seasons and now he's projected at 104. It's still too soon to be sure that he's turned the corner (see Corey Patterson or Chris Singleton or others).

Since Sal Fasano gets a projection, does that he mean he gets projected Major League health insurance, too?

He does, but the co-pay is 100% of the cost of the care.

de la Rosa with only 6 walks? Please tell me that's an error.

At first sight, 7962 ABs at 133 OPS+ for a modern first baseman means trouble getting into the HOM, and I guess we will be friendlier to Helton than HOF voters.

Jimenez will be better than that.

After watching de la Rosa this year, I assumed it was supposed to be 106 walks.

I thought MGL had found some small effect for 2nd half vs. 1st half ... as in "most recent data gets a slightly higher weight" even if you broke it down by half. But it wasn't enough to make any substantial difference -- i.e. it might add/subtract a few points from a projection, not proclaim that Gonzalez has arrived. Plus my memory could be wrong.

he had a K/BB/IP ratio of 198/85/218, which is pretty damn great

I'll call that good. He'll have to get the K/BB into the 3 range to be a real stud I'd think. Based on the projection, that would involve dropping his BB rate by 1/3 which isn't easy.


So if Helton hits those numbers (which seem quite attainable, as it looks like it requires around .259/.372/.392 in 1457 AB's), does he sniff the Hall?

I seriously doubt it. 2500 hits, 350 HR just doesn't cut it in this day and age, especially after making a reasonable adjustment for Coors. Adding to that, he's never finished better than 5th in MVP voting. He made 5 AS games which isn't bad but isn't noteworthy from an HoF perspective. Three GG, generally mediocre team performance, horrible postseason performance (211/303/281). Outside of 2000, he's never led the league in anything but OBP a couple of times.

Coors or no Coors, his 2000 probably deserved more respect. He led the league in BA, OBP, SLG, RBI, hits, total bases and doubles and was 2nd in runs and 3rd in OPS+. But he did finish 5th in the MVP and it is hard to place him ahead of Kent, Bonds or Piazza (Edmonds, yes).

Man, 2000. Those were the days eh? 19 players, AL and NL, qualified for the batting title and posted an OPS of 1000 or better (plus Ellis Burks at 458 PA). In 2009, that was down to 3.

Oh yeah, other stuff ...

Ianetta was the one guy they seemed to lose patience with. I don't know if they've lost it forever or not.

The Rox are in an interesting position. Ideally they'd trade both Atkins and Hawpe. They're reasonably expensive (but not hugely so) and, if you have faith in Stewart, Gonzalez and Smith, pretty superfluous on this team. Hawpe is definitely a "better to trade a year early than a year late" kinda guy and Atkins (it turns out) might have been such a guy last year. I'm not sure how much you get back for either -- nothing dramatic but maybe some nice relief arms.

Since you did some of the AA guys, could you also do Robert (Cole) Garner and relievers Matt Reynolds and Alan Johnston* (w/Tulsa last season)? I'd guess with the glut of OF's Garner's not likely to come up, but who knows. I don't know if Reynolds or Johnston are any good, but they sent those guys to the AFL along with Craig Baker of Modesto. (*Not to be confused with the starter Alan Johnson at CSprings in 2009.)

Darin Holcomb seems like he gets a better projection than other Tulsa players relative to his stats and age. Any idea why?

I know I asked Dan before about EY2's BABIP, but this year's projection is even worse than last year's, with a worse K rate. Was his season at the Springs that bad? The projection is worse than his MLE. (It's not that I'm such a fan--his numbers don't look great to me. It's just that there seems to be a high level of enthusiasm among Rockies fans for the guy. He's fast, but I don't think he's going to hit enough to start.)

Lastly, how do you do the defensive ratings, esp. for minor leaguers? The way it's reported around Denver is that EY2's D at 2nd is suspect.

OK, Marquis is added and Nelson fixed.

Thanks, Dan. Would it be possible to see a set of SS comps for Nelson? I'm curious what other guys like him turned out like (though if Chris Nowak could play the middle infield, he might have had a an actual career).

Ianetta was the one guy they seemed to lose patience with. I don't know if they've lost it forever or not.

Only until Torrealba's BABIP returns to normal levels, rather than the .390 it was in the second half of '09. When they're both hitting .250, Iannetta is clearly a better player because of his power and walks. Even when Torrealba is hitting .290 and Iannetta is hitting .228, that point is debatable.

If you don't mind, Dan, could you run a projection for Daniel Mayora?

I don't envy trying to protect most of the players due to their youth. Tulo's projection would have looked great this time last year, now it looks disappointing.

Absolutely agreed. His numbers seem slightly lower than I expected...all the way across the board. But hey, he'll strike out slightly less as well. I understand an age argument for Hawpe (though I didn't expect it to be so dramatic, 30/31 isn't that aged), but figured Tulo would look a little more impressive seeing as he hasn't entered his 'prime' offensive years.

Mostly, I don't get how Eric Young Jr. gets worse projections (even if only slightly) than last years, when he performed better, overall, in AAA this season than in AA last. Did his call up numbers hurt him that much?