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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, October 09, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers
The 2009 edition of the Tigers will sadly be remembered for losing the division in such a dramatic fashion. As bitter a taste as the last week of the season leaves, the team should largely return in 2010, and based on what information we have right now, be the slight favorite in the division.This could change in the offseason, however, depending on what the Twins do. I don't think the Sox have enough offense to go into the season higher than 3rd, but the Twins have the new stadium revenues coming in next year and could choose to make a major acquisition in addition to extending Mauer. I'm not sure if they actually will (in fact, I kind of doubt it), but the Twins are an easier team to upgrade than this Tiger team.
It also remains to be seen if the Tigers have the money this offseason to be aggressive - someone like John Lackey would be perfect most offseasons. With Michigan's economy being hard hit and Detroit in particular in so much trouble that Coinstar machines could start reimbursing customers for their change jars in house deeds, the Tigers very well might go with what they have in '10. The team does have some depth in the offense to be able to handle emergencies, but they don't really have the prospects to make any big trades, so it may be wallet or nothing.
I do have to apologize in advance if I messed up Fu-Te Ni's name. I do not know if he goes by western convention or not for use of his name, so I don't really know if he would prefer Fu-Te Ni or Ni Fu-Te.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Miguel Cabrera 1b 27 .305 .376 .536 159 610 91 186 37 1 34 110 68 120 4 2 141 Magglio Ordonez rf 36 .300 .364 .459 130 490 63 147 29 2 15 73 50 73 2 2 119 Carlos Guillen# lf 34 .276 .355 .464 106 388 57 107 23 4 14 56 47 69 7 4 117 Curtis Granderson* cf 29 .257 .333 .465 150 587 94 151 28 11 24 60 65 139 16 4 111 Ryan Raburn lf 29 .266 .332 .470 125 349 53 93 19 2 16 51 33 84 8 4 111 Placido Polanco 2b 34 .292 .338 .398 126 520 72 152 28 3 7 52 30 36 5 2 96 Aubrey Huff* 1b 33 .260 .323 .431 143 531 68 138 33 2 18 82 49 88 1 3 100 Marcus Thames lf 33 .238 .296 .467 102 323 42 77 15 1 19 48 27 92 1 2 100 Mike Hessman 3b 32 .223 .309 .438 122 448 52 100 20 2 24 61 49 159 3 3 97 Jeffrey Larish* 1b 27 .236 .322 .380 123 424 47 100 20 1 13 48 51 116 3 3 87 Ryan Strieby 1b 24 .240 .310 .387 110 421 43 101 19 2 13 52 39 110 1 2 85 Scott Sizemore 2b 25 .253 .316 .370 105 427 53 108 23 3 7 36 36 82 12 5 83 Brandon Inge 3b 33 .226 .308 .390 136 461 56 104 18 2 18 61 45 132 4 4 86 Don Kelly* cf 30 .262 .319 .354 120 393 50 103 18 3 4 36 30 53 12 4 80 Alex Avila* c 23 .239 .309 .372 100 352 36 84 18 1 9 41 36 86 1 1 82 Ramon Santiago# ss 30 .257 .318 .374 89 257 32 66 11 2 5 26 18 51 3 3 84 Clete Thomas* rf 26 .247 .312 .363 128 482 59 119 23 3 9 45 43 127 25 10 78 Maxim St. Pierre c 30 .256 .299 .377 59 207 20 53 10 0 5 24 11 31 0 0 79 Mike Gosse* ss 24 .263 .298 .363 75 278 32 73 14 1 4 41 14 34 2 3 76 Matt Treanor c 34 .242 .313 .333 39 120 11 29 5 0 2 14 11 25 0 0 74 Jeff Frazier dh 27 .260 .293 .355 123 484 46 126 23 1 7 48 22 71 2 3 73 Gerald Laird c 30 .235 .298 .346 109 361 44 85 20 1 6 33 28 69 4 1 72 William Rhymes* 2b 27 .259 .306 .331 121 478 54 124 17 4 3 39 31 70 15 6 71 Brent Clevlen rf 26 .224 .287 .362 128 464 50 104 19 3 13 48 38 150 6 2 72 Casper Wells rf 25 .222 .293 .370 93 351 38 78 16 3 10 35 27 108 9 7 76 Michael Hollimon# 3b 28 .220 .290 .354 80 305 37 67 14 3 7 29 29 94 5 3 71 Maxwell Leon# lf 26 .244 .301 .323 89 316 34 77 12 2 3 28 25 69 8 3 67 Wilkin Ramirez lf 24 .223 .277 .355 129 488 58 109 17 4 13 43 33 164 25 9 67 Dusty Ryan c 25 .214 .284 .340 86 294 27 63 11 1 8 32 26 102 1 1 66 Adam Everett ss 33 .231 .284 .324 91 281 34 65 15 1 3 35 19 44 4 2 63 Audy Ciriaco ss 23 .233 .264 .327 127 480 49 112 18 3 7 45 19 104 10 6 57 Brent Dlugach ss 27 .219 .265 .313 103 384 36 84 17 2 5 31 23 120 4 4 54 Dane Sardinha c 31 .207 .251 .321 73 237 20 49 10 1 5 23 13 69 1 0 52 Cale Iorg ss 24 .204 .251 .297 122 481 46 98 17 2 8 34 26 161 12 8 46 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Cabrera Av/106 Pr/132 Ordonez Av/85 Guillen# Av/122 Pr/121 Pr/131 Av/136 Granderson* Av/100 Raburn Pr/138 Fr/116 Vg/94 Av/94 Av/94 Polanco Vg/55 Huff* Fr/84 Thames Fr/166 Pr/166 Hessman Av/73 Av/73 Larish* Av/88 Pr/105 Strieby Vg/113 Av/113 Sizemore Av/173 Inge Av Vg/93 Fr/103 Kelly* Av/101 Fr/101 Av/101 Pr/121 Av/70 Av/70 Av/70 Avila* Vg Santiago# Av/97 Av/97 Thomas* Av/92 Fr/165 Av/92 St. Pierre Vg Gosse* Av/143 Fr/143 Treanor Fr Frazier Fr/136 Fr/136 Laird Vg Rhymes* Av/121 Fr/145 Clevlen Vg/159 Fr/138 Vg/159 Wells Av/117 Fr/216 Av/117 Hollimon# Av/111 Av/124 Fr/136 Leon# Av/70 Fr/164 Fr/164 Pr/164 Av/70 Ramirez Vg/198 Ryan Av Everett Vg/113 Ciriaco Av/193 Dlugach Av/158 Sardinha Fr Av/134 Iorg Vg/139 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 CabreraMiguel 1B 58% 33% 6% 3% 1% BagwellJeff ThomasFrank WatsonBob OrdonezMagglio RF 18% 38% 24% 15% 5% FurilloCarl KalineAl SmithAl GuillenCarlos LF 20% 26% 21% 20% 12% GalanAugie HintonChuck RainesTim GrandersonCurtis CF 39% 27% 22% 9% 3% MosebyLloyd van SlykeAndy BeltranCarlos RaburnRyan LF 17% 22% 22% 24% 16% MartinJerry AgbayaniBenny BladesRay PolancoPlacido 2B 14% 17% 23% 27% 19% JohnsonDon RojasCookieGrudzielanekMark HuffAubrey 1B 1% 7% 12% 36% 44% MartinezTino ChamblissChris AbadAndy ThamesMarcus DH 3% 7% 10% 34% 46% BalboniSteve DavisGlenn OliverGene HessmanMike 3B 6% 13% 15% 26% 41% HiattPhil RaderDoug PalmerDean SizemoreScott 2B 2% 4% 10% 28% 57% BensonSteve GustineFrankie BurkeChris LarishJeff 1B 0% 0% 2% 18% 80% CareyPaul MinorDamon WardPreston KellyDon CF 2% 4% 14% 36% 45% MartinezDave RedmanTike PrietoChris SantiagoRamon SS 1% 7% 28% 40% 25% MirandaWilly StockerKevin GuzmanCristian StriebyRyan 1B 0% 0% 1% 13% 86% VitielloJoe PeoplesDanny MormanRuss IngeBrandon 3B 2% 6% 9% 19% 64% PetrocelliRico RyanConnie SmithAl St. PierreMaxim C 0% 7% 19% 42% 32% SmithHal HillJason CosteChris ThomasClete RF 2% 1% 1% 4% 92% TuckerMichael FranconaTito MackowiakRob AvilaAlex C 1% 4% 18% 47% 30% DerryberryTim WillardJerry HelfandEric GosseMike SS 1% 2% 9% 30% 57% ReynoldsCraig YardBruce WilsonEnrique RhymesWilliam 2B 0% 0% 1% 8% 91% RemyJerry AndersonMarlon InglettJoe TreanorMatt C 0% 3% 6% 37% 55% TremieChris BerresRay McCulloughClyde FrazierJeff DH 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% CastellanoJohn EylwardMike BelkTim LairdGerald C 0% 2% 9% 31% 58% HemsleyRollie SpohrerAl WilsonDan ClevlenBrent RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% KrauseScott BetzsoldJim VentoMike WellsCasper CF 0% 0% 2% 13% 85% SadlerRay KellyKenny HermansenChad RamirezWilkin LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99%ValderramaCarlos BrinkleyDante HillJamar LeonMaxwell LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% ScottTony ClarkDougValderramaCarlos HollimonMichael 3B 1% 1% 1% 4% 93% KuzmicCraig PerezSantiago MoronkoJeff RyanDusty C 0% 0% 1% 12% 87% McGriffTerry PryorBuddy ChitiHarry EverettAdam SS 0% 0% 1% 9% 89% BoleyJoe PaganJose McDonaldJohn CiriacoAudy SS 0% 0% 0% 3% 96% LozadoWillie CedenoRonny CastilloRuben SardinhaDane C 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% CharlesFrank MoellerChad HundleyRandy DlugachBrent SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% MillerMike ShaddyChris KlassenDanny IorgCale SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% LozadoWillie BasakChris KutcherRandy Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB CabreraMiguel 58% 51% 80% 49% 15% 0% 70% 0% OrdonezMagglio 51% 34% 14% 9% 3% 0% 1% 0% GuillenCarlos 23% 27% 21% 13% 0% 4% 2% 0% GrandersonCurtis 6% 7% 21% 8% 3% 48% 22% 1% RaburnRyan 15% 9% 27% 9% 0% 0% 3% 0% PolancoPlacido 39% 8% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% HuffAubrey 8% 3% 6% 1% 8% 0% 4% 0% ThamesMarcus 3% 1% 24% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% HessmanMike 1% 1% 12% 1% 0% 0% 20% 0% SizemoreScott 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LarishJeff 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% KellyDon 9% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% SantiagoRamon 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% StriebyRyan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% IngeBrandon 1% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% St. PierreMaxim 11% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ThomasClete 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% AvilaAlex 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GosseMike 11% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RhymesWilliam 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% TreanorMatt 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FrazierJeff 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LairdGerald 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ClevlenBrent 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% WellsCasper 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RamirezWilkin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 23% LeonMaxwell 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HollimonMichael 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RyanDusty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EverettAdam 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CiriacoAudy 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SardinhaDane 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DlugachBrent 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% IorgCale 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Justin Verlander 27 3.90 17 10 34 34 219.1 200 95 21 75 217 118 Edwin Jackson 26 4.28 13 10 34 34 201.2 201 96 25 82 142 107 Jarrod Washburn* 35 4.59 10 9 28 27 166.2 171 85 24 56 90 100 Rick Porcello 21 4.89 11 11 29 29 151.0 167 82 21 55 73 95 Jeremy Bonderman 27 5.12 5 6 21 13 89.2 99 51 13 35 61 90 Armando Galarraga 28 5.28 9 11 30 28 158.2 166 93 27 74 104 87 Nate Robertson* 32 5.46 5 7 31 19 117.0 136 71 16 51 77 84 Eddie Bonine 29 5.48 6 9 25 22 131.1 159 80 20 33 51 84 Alfredo Figaro 25 5.56 6 8 22 18 100.1 122 62 11 50 55 83 Jon Kibler* 23 5.58 7 10 26 26 143.2 162 89 18 77 62 82 Brooks Brown 24 5.73 8 12 26 25 132.0 160 84 14 82 56 80 Josh Rainwater 25 5.81 5 7 35 12 88.1 105 57 10 54 44 80 Ruddy Lugo 30 6.04 7 12 34 19 114.2 132 77 18 66 57 76 Luis Marte 23 6.17 5 9 19 18 97.2 115 67 19 44 54 75 Dontrelle Willis* 28 6.31 5 9 21 20 102.2 122 72 15 68 59 73 Ryan Ketchner* 28 6.33 4 7 18 15 81.0 106 57 14 32 43 73 Duane Below* 24 7.21 3 7 16 16 68.2 87 55 13 58 47 64 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Brandon Lyon 30 3.84 6 4 66 0 70.1 69 30 7 24 46 118 Bobby Seay* 32 4.06 3 2 64 0 51.0 48 23 5 21 43 111 Ryan Perry 23 4.42 1 1 64 0 77.1 74 38 9 46 72 104 Fu Te Ni* 27 4.50 2 1 61 0 64.0 63 32 9 26 45 102 Zach Miner 28 4.67 7 6 51 9 108.0 114 56 12 51 66 99 Fernando Rodney 33 4.71 3 3 56 0 57.1 52 30 7 35 55 99 Robert Weinhardt 24 4.78 2 2 36 0 49.0 49 26 5 28 38 97 Clay Rapada* 29 4.80 3 3 53 0 54.1 58 29 5 29 38 97 Freddy Dolsi 27 4.90 4 4 52 0 60.2 68 33 6 32 31 94 Joel Zumaya 25 5.06 3 3 33 0 37.1 37 21 5 26 32 91 Casey Fien 26 5.31 3 3 50 0 61.0 66 36 10 24 46 87 Cody Satterwhite 23 5.65 3 4 29 0 36.2 39 23 5 26 26 82 Lester Oliveros 22 5.68 2 3 31 0 44.1 49 28 7 25 31 82 Zachary Simons 25 5.83 3 5 45 0 63.1 68 41 8 44 41 79 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 LyonBrandon RP 38% 53% 10% TerryScott BradfordChad ValdezSergio VerlanderJustin SP 72% 27% 1% PascualCamilo BlackwellEwell ClemensRoger SeayBobby RP 29% 53% 18% ChristiansenJason McElroyChuck EmbreeAlan JacksonEdwin SP 48% 48% 4% GrossKevin MartinezRamon MillerWade PerryRyan RP 16% 57% 27% BukvichRyan BruneyBrian KrawczykRay NiFu-Te RP 16% 52% 32% MarchokChris GalloMike BrewerBilly WashburnJarrod SP 24% 59% 17% BlackBud KnepperBob FlanaganMike MinerZach RP 8% 60% 32% PufferBrandon RiveraSaul BatistaMiguel RodneyFernando RP 12% 45% 43% DeLuciaRich StoddardTim FarmerEd RapadaClay RP 12% 47% 41% LovingierKevin GlynnEd HamulackTim WeinhardtRobert RP 16% 43% 41% SmithLee RiveraSaul SempriniJohn PorcelloRick SP 14% 60% 26% CookAaron RomanickRon CrawfordSteve DolsiFreddy RP 6% 42% 51% RyanMatt GreenSean GardnerMike BumpNate SP 15% 44% 41% RasmussenEric MilackiBob CorpasManuel ZumayaJoel RP 12% 38% 50% VoylesBrad CammackEric BruneyBrian BondermanJeremy SP 11% 51% 38% UlloaEnmanuel ParrisSteve BankheadScott GalarragaArmando SP 3% 46% 51% JohnsonJason OrtizRamon ArmasTony FienCasey RP 4% 33% 63% HoytLa Marr KohnShawn VerasDario BonineEddie SP 4% 38% 58% WootenGreg TowersJosh SilvaCarlos RobertsonNate SP 4% 37% 59% BoltonTom McWilliamsLarry KeislerRandy FigaroAlfredo SP 3% 36% 61% WestbrookJake McDowellRoger ChestnutTroy KiblerJonathan SP 1% 30% 69%WojciechowskiSteve FloresRandy AllenHarold SatterwhiteCody RP 3% 22% 75% BurchMatt NealBlaine BarryKevin OliverosLester RP 3% 26% 71% AllenWyatt SessionsDoug BurchMatt BrownBrooks SP 1% 20% 79% FulchinoJeff LaxtonBrett CocanowerJaime RainwaterJosh SP 0% 13% 87% DelacruzEulogio AckerJim BockusRandy SimonsZachary RP 0% 15% 84% MarquezJeff NealBlaine ValdezCarlos LugoRuddy SP 0% 14% 86% GlynnRyan WehrmeisterDave ManuelBarry MarteLuis SP 0% 12% 88% CrouchMatt KlingenbeckScott SnyderJohn KetchnerRyan SP 0% 12% 88% PettyjohnAdam RheineckerJohn CyrEric WillisDontrelle SP 0% 8% 92% BirtsasTim MossDamian GeorgeChris BelowDuane SP 0% 3% 97% HappJames PollackChris AndraJeff Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 LyonBrandon 31% 87% 1% 6% 72% VerlanderJustin 29% 91% 82% 2% 80% SeayBobby 29% 76% 35% 1% 83% JacksonEdwin 9% 75% 2% 0% 34% PerryRyan 12% 61% 59% 0% 59% NiFu-Te 12% 54% 4% 1% 36% WashburnJarrod 3% 50% 0% 3% 22% MinerZach 5% 53% 1% 0% 58% RodneyFernando 9% 50% 70% 0% 52% RapadaClay 8% 43% 6% 0% 71% WeinhardtRobert 11% 51% 15% 0% 58% PorcelloRick 1% 36% 0% 1% 28% DolsiFreddy 4% 42% 0% 0% 75% BumpNate 3% 31% 0% 4% 67% ZumayaJoel 8% 41% 40% 0% 44% BondermanJeremy 2% 31% 2% 1% 25% GalarragaArmando 0% 14% 0% 0% 9% FienCasey 2% 25% 7% 2% 24% BonineEddie 0% 14% 0% 29% 21% RobertsonNate 0% 13% 2% 0% 35% FigaroAlfredo 0% 12% 0% 0% 63% KiblerJonathan 0% 6% 0% 0% 38% SatterwhiteCody 3% 19% 9% 0% 49% OliverosLester 2% 17% 5% 0% 35% BrownBrooks 0% 4% 0% 0% 67% RainwaterJosh 0% 8% 0% 0% 59% SimonsZachary 0% 9% 1% 0% 47% LugoRuddy 0% 2% 0% 0% 21% MarteLuis 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% KetchnerRyan 0% 2% 0% 1% 13% WillisDontrelle 0% 1% 0% 0% 21% BelowDuane 0% 0% 2% 0% 15% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ CabreraMiguel .295 .367 .508 2794 10656 1556 3148 619 23 535 1821 1170 2186 65 36 130 OrdonezMagglio .305 .366 .492 2285 8631 1271 2632 529 27 344 1466 819 1129 101 60 122 GrandersonCurtis .254 .329 .450 1761 6829 1083 1737 315 127 256 642 737 1658 165 49 104 GuillenCarlos .280 .353 .443 1619 5837 907 1636 330 62 165 813 654 1025 96 61 110 PolancoPlacido .296 .341 .405 2081 8048 1164 2381 410 43 126 818 460 578 94 40 96 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ VerlanderJustin 232 180 0 4.19 518 517 3288 3091 351 1210 3165 109 JacksonEdwin 177 164 0 4.52 531 495 2971 3026 403 1285 2128 101 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. Defensive projections consist of a range figure (again, tiered from EX to PO) and an error figure (errors as a percentage of league-average, higher is worse)
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 09, 2009 at 12:34 PM | 15 comment(s)
Related News: Detroit, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Detroit, Projections, ZIPS
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Player PO TOP MID BOTJacksonEdwin SP 48% 48% 4%
considering where jackson's career was three years ago, this is awesome. i like his projected line alot, too. there's gonna be some regression next year, for sure, but i think this ZiPS projection nails it. i wasn't really expecting that.
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+Dontrelle Willis* 28 6.31 5 9 21 20 102.2 122 72 15 68 59 73
i will say that i think willis has one more great season in him. he's too athletic, and he was way too good for him to just completely fall off a table.
It's right there, .305.
When was he that good? He never had great K rates, always walked too many guys, and his two seasons with quality FIPs were largely the result of unsustainable HR/FB rates.
In his first two full seasons, Willis posted a 2.41 bb/9 and a 2.66 k/bb ratio. The walk rate was superb and the k/bb ratio was pretty good.
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