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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

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   1. xanthan Posted: December 14, 2009 at 04:53 PM (#3411840)
Gookie Dawkins is an amazing name.

I love Porkins' projected OBP. He sure would look nice in the Giants lineup. Also, the Marlins have a couple of nice bullpen pieces (Calero and Donnelly) but they seem especially volatile.

e: Scratch that. Calero threw 60 IP last season, I thought it was half that.
   2. Joe Mauer Power Hour Posted: December 14, 2009 at 04:58 PM (#3411845)
Wow, nice comps for Hanley.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:00 PM (#3411849)
I should note that there aren't really any great comps for Hanley Ramirez, so ZiPS ages him more generically than usual.

The Marlins have such a thin margin for error, considering ownership never has their back, that they really can't afford any more wacky experiments like making Emilio Bonifacio the starting 3B for 4 months.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3411852)
Wow, nice comps for Hanley.

Can't be that surprised, I'd imagine! 25-year-old shortstop with .900 career OPSs, steal a lot of bases, and hit .320 are pretty darn rare! That Ripken is the number 1 comp shows how darn hard it is to find shortstops that hit that well with speed.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:04 PM (#3411858)
I still can't believe they didn't offer Calero arbitration.

What's their projected rotation? Johnson/Nolasco/Sanchez/Volstad/Miller? Where does that leave Badenhop, West, and VandenHurk?
   6. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:27 PM (#3411886)
CF Maybin
2B Coghlan
SS Ramirez
3B Cantu
RF Ross
1B Sanchez
C Baker
LF Carroll

C Paulino
1B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez
UT Bonifacio
OF ??? (warm body they'll pick up from other non-tenders)

SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Volstad
SP Miller

CL Nunez
RP Pinto
RP Meyer
RP Tankersley
RP Sanches
RP Wood
SW Badenhop

Starting pitching depth will be Badenhop, West, and Vanden Hurk. Possible we'll see Coghlan in left with someone like Kelly Johnson at second. I have to think first base belongs to Sanchez with Jimenez as the backup corner infielder.

EDIT: Sanchez will not be playing third. He did that in college with spectacular results in the College World Series.
   7. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:34 PM (#3411891)
Initial impression is that the offense will be about the same as last year, as Uggla's lost production will be compensated for by not playing Bonifacio every day and Maybin, hopefully, not cratering at a .180 batting average for the first few months of the season.

Infield defense is still going to be pretty bad. The bullpen will be iffy too, but it always is when you put it together on a shoestring budget. It could be good.

As usual, the difference between this being a 75 win team and a 90 win team is (a) the young pitching staying healthy and progressing and (b) Hanley not getting hurt. A repeat performance of 87 wins is not out of the question, but with a better Mets squad, a strong Braves team, and an improving Nationals team the Marlins will probably fall in the 80-85 range if they don't bring in any offensive firepower or see any big surprises there.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:58 PM (#3411916)
Either the Josh Johnson projection is off or the wayback machine could use a tune up. :-) Perez and Benes aren't great but are in the ballpark while Larry Christenson ages 23-25 posted OPS+ of 99, 111 (career high), 85.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3411936)
Christenson's peripherals those years were better than the ERAs. Their K rates become a lot closer as well when you consider park and era.
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3411970)
We need to wait and see what comes back when Uggla is traded before we try to project what the team looks like on the field in 2010.

-- MWE
   11. Zac Schmitt Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:42 PM (#3412111)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?
   12. JPWF13 Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:46 PM (#3412114)
Maybin's projection is an "ouch".

How far from Hanley is ARod as a comp?
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:47 PM (#3412115)
Rachel Phelps?
   14. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3412128)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports?


For years, Harold Ballard would have been the obvious answer.

More recently in Hockey, I'd say whoever currently owns the Islanders (Charles Wang?), although Tampa has had an interesting string of owners as well.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:01 PM (#3412132)
How bout the Phoenix Coyotes owner: Gary Bettman?
   16. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:02 PM (#3412137)
Maybin's projection is an "ouch".


Well, he's made no progress in three years; what would you expect?

How far from Hanley is ARod as a comp?


Pretty far. Hanley's probably closer to Jeter than to ARod. Don't forget that ARod had been a major league regular for six years, and had almost twice as many major league HRs, by the time he was the age that HRam is now.

-- MWE
   17. Masterson and Manson Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:03 PM (#3412139)
Logan Morrison... I'd never heard of him, but in my first 3 OOTP baseball simulations he hits like .370 with power in his rookie year.

So, I guess that means he'll do it in real life.
   18. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:08 PM (#3412142)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?

Al Davis?

Really, I think the other bad owners are incompetent. I think Loria's (greed/desire to make money) is just more obvious than other owners' (greed/desire to make money).
   19. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3412144)
Logan Morrison isn't even on the 40-man roster yet, and is coming off a season where he missed significant time due to injury. He's a quality prospect but I expect him to be at AAA to start the season.

-- MWE
   20. Swedish Chef Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:11 PM (#3412149)
I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?

While Bill Wirtz lived he was far worse than Loria.
   21. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:14 PM (#3412153)
We need to wait and see what comes back when Uggla is traded before we try to project what the team looks like on the field in 2010.


The was serious talk of the Fish non-tendering their second biggest offensive asset because he was due to make something approaching his actual value in arbitration. Barring Beinfest and Hill being made of magic--which they may damn well be given their history--they'll get a bullpen arm, an A ball starter with some upside, and maybe a bench player. Probably from the Giants.
   22. JPWF13 Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:18 PM (#3412157)
Well, he's made no progress in three years; what would you expect?

.277/.375/.456 in AA at age 21
.319/.399/.463 in New Orleans at age 22

an 89 OPS+ through age 22 in 250 MLB PAs

and he projects at 79?
FWIW Chone projects Maybin at .265/.352/.405, Dan's .243/.322/.354 looks REALLY low...

Pretty far. Hanley's probably closer to Jeter than to ARod.


recent SS, ages 23-25:
Rk      Player      OPS+      BA      OBP      SLG      HR      PA      To      From
1     Alex Rodriguez     153     .307     .394     .606     135     1976     1999     2001
2     Hanley Ramirez     145     .325     .398     .549     86     2051     2007     2009
3     Nomar Garciaparra     138     .326     .371     .571     92     1981     1997     1999
4     Derek Jeter     128     .321     .397     .478     53     2181     1997     1999
5     Troy Tulowitzki     114     .283     .359     .490     40     1049     2008     2009
6     Travis Fryman     114     .277     .341     .456     60     1944     1992     1994
7     Jose Reyes     112     .292     .355     .461     47     2231     2006     2008
8     Jhonny Peralta     106     .272     .342     .442     58     1849     2005     2007
9     J
.JHardy     104     .276     .329     .463     55     1406     2006     2008
10     Khalil Greene     103     .259     .321     .437     32     1100     2003     2005 


perhaps I should have asked why Nomar didn't make it as a comp....
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:27 PM (#3412170)
Maybin's gotta cut down on the strikeouts and the loss of power was pretty disturbing. Essentially, when you have a .380-.390 $H in the minors, you should be hitting a lot better than an .850 OPS in the PCL, even in New Orleans. It doesn't help that the Marlins play in the biggest strikeout park in the majors nearly every year (Maybin projects as an OPS+ of 82-89 in every other park in the NL).

It's not really the worst projection, anyway. If he plays well defensively, he's still a usable regular in center right now, despite the flaws and just 23.
   24. John M. Perkins Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3412178)
Two WS makes being a Marlins fan much sweeter than an Expos fan.
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3412199)
Boy, Andrew Miller didn't really turn out the way anybody planned, did he?
   26. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3412300)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?


The current clown show running the Tampa Bay Lightning is probably worse. Keep in mind that they signed Dan Boyle to a 6-year, $40 million contract, making him one of the highest paid defensemen in hockey, with a full no-trade clause, and then forcing him to accept a trade out of town before he had played a single game under that contract, and that that probably isn't their worst personnel decision in the last two years. It may not even be in the top three; hiring Barry Melrose to be the coach and then firing him after 17 games is probably at the top of the list. They are hopelessly under financed, horrible at PR, and have no idea what they are doing.

At least Loria has a plan: he's intent on sucking every dollar out of someone else's pockets that isn't glued in, while paying out as few of them as he can. He's also very good at it. It isn't clear that Len Barrie and Owen Koules are any good at anything other than making torture porn movies.
   27. TomH Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3412330)
I would argue that Marlin fans have been treated even more cruelly than Expos fans

Are you KIDDING me? The Florida Marlins, who have barely had two decent years in their hisotry, and never a GREAT team, but own two WS trophies? THOSE Marlins!? The fans of the Marlins are possibly the luckiest fans/team ever in terms of recent actual versus deserved success on the diamond. The quoted statement is just nuts.
   28. JPWF13 Posted: December 14, 2009 at 10:53 PM (#3412495)
The Zephyrs hit just .261/.333/.399, (and why on earth did they keep that name when they moved to New Orleans...)
and that isn't just because NO sucked (which they did) the park factors I've seen suggest you can ignore the fact that they play in the PCL.
   29. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 15, 2009 at 12:02 AM (#3412562)
The 2003 team, once Willis and Cabrera came on board, was the best team in baseball that year. They were great once they made promotions and jettisoned the flotsam.

The 1997 team was just pretty good. But they won one less game than the Phillies did this season and no one was going to accuse these Phillies of being shams.

And I deserve a World Series trophy EVERY ####### YEAR.
   30. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: December 15, 2009 at 04:08 AM (#3412865)
And I deserve a World Series trophy EVERY ####### YEAR.

Who do you think you are, a Yankee fan?

The Marlins signed Scott Strickland to a minor league. I had no idea he was still pitching.
   31. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 15, 2009 at 04:17 AM (#3412879)
When you're a Fish you're a Fish all the way.
   32. tropicofcancer Posted: December 16, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3414843)
Baker projection is whack
   33. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 22, 2009 at 06:38 AM (#3419316)
Just wanted to point out that according to "Seaquest DSV" (from 1993), the Marlins are supposed to win the World Series this year.
   34. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 22, 2009 at 06:52 AM (#3419317)
I accept your offer, Aaron Hill. Congrats to the Fish from the Future.
   35. Crispix Attacks Posted: December 22, 2009 at 02:31 PM (#3419416)
It all depends on what kind of fan the Marlins fan is. Sentimental, or freakonomical?

It doesn't help that the Marlins play in the biggest strikeout park in the majors nearly every year (Maybin projects as an OPS+ of 82-89 in every other park in the NL).

There are strikeout parks? How so? Does it have to do with the size of the foul territory, or the sun shining in the batter's eyes, or something?
   36. Mister High Standards Posted: December 22, 2009 at 02:46 PM (#3419438)
There are strikeout parks? How so? Does it have to do with the size of the foul territory, or the sun shining in the batter's eyes, or something?


backdrop.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 22, 2009 at 10:53 PM (#3420305)
As Matt notes, backdrop is a big part. Foul territory is important as well - foul outs don't just replace hits and in-play outs, they replace strikeouts as well and conversely, parks with small foul territory increase both hits and strikeouts (foul territory in general is a very underappreciated component of park factor).
   38. Greg Pope Posted: December 28, 2009 at 01:17 AM (#3422985)
Some years ago, I reach a translation of a French short story, the author and name of which eludes me at this moment


I'm guessing it's The Torture of Hope by Auguste Villiers de l'Isle-Adam.

EDIT: The linke pasted from Wikipedia doesn't seem to work for the author. I think there's a special character in there.
   39. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 04, 2010 at 08:08 PM (#3454220)
Update!

CF Maybin
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cantu
1B Sanchez
RF Ross
C Baker*

C Paulino
1B/3B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez*
UT Bonifacio#
OF Carroll

SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Miller*
SP Volstad

SP Vandenhurk
SP West*
SP Trahern

CL Nunez
RP Pinto*
RP Badenhop
RP Sanches
RP Meyer*
RP Wood
RP McClung

I like this team.
   40. Mike Webber Posted: February 04, 2010 at 08:24 PM (#3454237)
CF Maybin
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cantu
1B Sanchez
RF Ross
C Baker*

Are you worried they don't have enough left handed batters? Might be a good year for Baker and Coghlan because they shouldn't ever see a lefty that isn't really good.
   41. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 04, 2010 at 09:14 PM (#3454287)
Are you worried they don't have enough left handed batters?

I've often thought that this concern is overblown. If I remember correctly, the 2003 team that won the championship had 6 straight righties in the lineup after Pierre and Castillo. It didn't stop them from beating some very good right handed pitching in the playoffs, as just about any good hitter fares pretty well against RHP. The greater concern would be stacking left handed batters who struggle against LHP together in a lineup.
   42. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 04, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3454289)
I agree, DLGM. Low budget teams can't afford to mess around with things like "Good lefty off the bench."

I believe righties have a universal 8% platoon advantage against lefties, so yeah, the variance isn't huge. Lefties, on the other hand, have a widely varied platoon split that averages out to around 20% better against righties. So platoon if you can, but if you can't, just put the best player in there and hope for the best.
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