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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, December 14, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins
Some years ago, I reach a translation of a French short story, the author and name of which eludes me at this moment. It was also later adapted into a short 20th-century opera, but again, the composer escapes me at this moment.In the story, the protagonist is jailed as part of the Spanish Inquisition. The man had endured every kind of torture that the Inquisitor could throw at him. One night, a man came and told the hero that he was there to help him escape. So, the escape attempt happened and just as the prisoner thinks he's successfully escaped, the man who came to help him was in fact the Inquisitor and had set the whole scenario up. At that point, the man lost the will to live because to have hope and have it taken away from him was the cruelest punishment of all.
So, what does this have to do with the Florida Marlins? Well, fans of the Marlins are part of a baseball version of this scenario. I would argue that Marlin fans have been treated even more cruelly than Expos fans. Expos fans saw their franchise undermined at every opportunity and razed and then the franchise was gone for good. For fans of the Fish, they get to be abused continually, knowing ahead of time that every success of the franchise will be short-lived and any happiness eventually pulled away from them. And that it will continue, year-after-year, under the current ownership.
The Marlins, given an ownership willing to invest in the team, have a lot of talent. They have a player who may very well be the best player in baseball over the next 10 years. Some decent supporting cast in the offense and some high-upside hitting prospects. Josh Johnson was healthy, throwing 209 innings, and Ricky Nolasco had one of the best 5.06 ERA seasons around. But Marlin fans still have no reason to believe that they're seeing the start of something rather than the end of something. Even Ramirez's extremely reasonable 6-year, $70 million contract doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be a Marlin for the rest of the contract. The Marlins continuing to win 85-90 games relies on Beinfest and Hill continuing to spin straw into gold faster than Jeff Loria can give it away, which is a very difficult task.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Hanley Ramirez ss 26 .320 .393 .537 152 596 115 191 40 4 27 84 67 107 36 11 144 Nick Johnson* 1b 31 .279 .423 .431 86 290 48 81 18 1 8 42 66 64 2 2 128 Dan Uggla 2b 30 .246 .342 .462 144 537 89 132 31 2 27 78 73 150 3 2 111 Chris Coghlan* lf 25 .287 .358 .413 142 554 83 159 31 6 9 64 56 90 18 6 104 Cody Ross cf 29 .262 .322 .473 133 442 58 116 29 2 20 70 33 105 4 1 107 Gaby Sanchez 1b 26 .272 .346 .416 122 430 61 117 24 1 12 59 46 74 7 4 101 Jorge Cantu 1b 28 .271 .327 .434 132 502 62 136 32 1 16 76 38 89 2 1 100 Logan Morrison* 1b 22 .265 .351 .403 108 407 53 108 25 2 9 53 53 83 7 4 100 John Lindsey 1b 33 .253 .327 .411 127 443 52 112 23 1 15 71 38 105 0 1 94 John Baker* c 29 .255 .336 .388 107 353 50 90 21 1 8 45 40 87 1 1 92 Ronny Paulino c 29 .258 .322 .390 96 310 36 80 15 1 8 43 29 67 1 1 88 Jorge Jimenez* 3b 25 .269 .325 .365 121 469 48 126 23 2 6 57 32 70 2 3 83 Dave Matranga 3b 33 .237 .329 .362 86 257 32 61 10 2 6 25 31 73 4 2 83 Cameron Maybin cf 23 .243 .322 .354 132 477 67 116 20 6 7 41 54 141 13 5 79 Brett Carroll rf 27 .239 .296 .408 117 309 42 74 16 3 10 39 22 85 2 3 85 Alfredo Amezaga# cf 32 .264 .319 .353 96 258 32 68 11 3 2 23 20 39 8 4 78 Wes Helms 3b 34 .252 .305 .376 121 242 23 61 13 1 5 34 16 61 0 1 79 Michael Stanton rf 20 .217 .294 .389 133 511 57 111 22 3 20 66 50 191 2 3 79 John Raynor lf 26 .243 .313 .341 119 449 66 109 20 3 6 32 41 134 24 8 73 Matt Dominguez 3b 20 .236 .298 .358 124 466 49 110 25 1 10 53 38 115 1 0 73 Bryan Petersen* lf 24 .250 .314 .351 130 484 61 121 17 4 8 47 44 108 12 10 76 Jai Miller rf 25 .220 .297 .362 119 414 47 91 19 2 12 41 43 146 9 4 74 Andy Gonzalez ss 28 .228 .317 .319 110 360 38 82 13 1 6 33 45 97 5 3 70 Scott Cousins* cf 25 .232 .287 .361 114 435 47 101 22 5 8 49 31 119 15 7 70 Emilio Bonifacio# 3b 25 .251 .299 .318 138 538 81 135 18 6 2 37 38 119 23 11 64 Brett Hayes c 26 .239 .281 .330 99 339 32 81 14 1 5 35 19 8 2 2 62 Gookie Dawkins ss 31 .228 .281 .319 106 386 39 88 18 1 5 30 25 104 7 5 59 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Ramirez Av/105 Johnson* Fr/118 Uggla Fr/109 Coghlan* Av/148 Av/148 Fr/125 Ross Av/100 Av/74 Av/100 Sanchez Av/96 Pr/143 Cantu Av/106 Pr/128 Pr/128 Morrison* Fr/123 Lindsey Av/104 Fr/104 Baker* Fr Paulino Av Jimenez* Fr/112 Fr/129 Matranga Fr/91 Av/91 Fr/91 Maybin Vg/139 Vg/139 Vg/139 Carroll Av/78 Pr/217 Av/78 Amezaga# Av/85 Fr/85 Fr/85 Av/85 Av/100 Av/135 Helms Av/145 Fr/106 Stanton Vg/167 Av/167 Vg/167 Raynor Av/130 Av/130 Av/130 Dominguez Av/110 Petersen* Av/144 Av/170 Av/144 Miller Vg/161 Vg/161 Vg/161 Gonzalez Fr/120 Fr/120 Fr/120 Av/120 Fr/120 Av/120 Cousins* Av/151 Av/157 Av/151 Bonifacio# Av/140 Av/125 Fr/136 Av/136 Av/136 Hayes Av Dawkins Vg/94 Av/120 Pr/102 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 RamirezHanley SS 98% 1% 1% 0% 0% RipkenCal TrammellAlan CroninJoe JohnsonNick 1B 22% 48% 20% 9% 1% WeintraubPhil TolmanTim GambleOscar CoghlanChris LF 5% 20% 23% 29% 24% GladdenDan BochteBruce FordCurt UgglaDan 2B 42% 22% 17% 13% 6% JohnsonDavey PalmerDean ThompsonRobby RossCody CF 24% 25% 31% 17% 4% LudwickRyan DevereauxMike HunterTorii SanchezGaby 1B 2% 10% 15% 40% 33% CoxSteve JohnsonRon NymanChris CantuJorge 1B 2% 7% 15% 42% 35% LancellottiRick SmithBrick StapletonDave MorrisonLogan 1B 0% 3% 13% 45% 38% PerryGerald BrownMike LoneyJames LindseyJohn 1B 0% 5% 8% 28% 59% MontanezWillie DropoWalt MormanRuss BakerJohn C 4% 21% 32% 33% 10% DempseyRick GibbsJake BandoChris PaulinoRonny C 2% 16% 27% 36% 18% BrownDick HundleyRandy MoellerChad JimenezJorge 3B 0% 1% 4% 18% 76% TracyChad ReeceThadLivingstoneScott MatrangaDave 3B 0% 2% 6% 24% 67% BarnesSkeeter NortonGreg RoysterJerry CarrollBrett RF 0% 1% 1% 5% 92% BarronTony CimoMatt KrauseScott MaybinCameron CF 0% 2% 13% 36% 49% ChristensonRyan JavierStan McLouthNate AmezagaAlfredo CF 1% 1% 5% 25% 68% MosesJohnMcCrackenQuinton ThomasDerrel HelmsWes 3B 0% 0% 2% 13% 84% BlumGeoff BergDave PhillipsBubba RaynorJohn LF 0% 0% 0% 3% 96% FaneyteRikkert FoxEric WolfeJoel StantonMichael RF 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% TorresPaul MurrayGlenn KellyMike DominguezMatt 3B 0% 0% 1% 8% 91% JorgensenTerry WiggintonTy CaraballoGary PetersenBryan LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% KoslofskiKevin GrahamEverett VazRoberto MillerJai RF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% GaettiJoe OrtizJavierEncarnacionMario CousinsScott CF 0% 0% 1% 14% 85% ShelbyJohn DunwoodyTodd DeHaanKory GonzalezAndy SS 1% 1% 4% 21% 73% HalterShane OwenDave PettiniJoe BonifacioEmilio 3B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% SharpersonMike GonzalesRene MarignyRon HayesBrett C 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% PetersonBrian MillerDarrell HillJason DawkinsGookie SS 0% 0% 0% 4% 96% BaezKevin HernandezJackie DeMaestriJoe Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB RamirezHanley 77% 74% 75% 55% 32% 4% 31% 78% JohnsonNick 28% 95% 8% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% CoghlanChris 29% 21% 1% 1% 4% 10% 0% 3% UgglaDan 3% 11% 22% 7% 5% 0% 34% 0% RossCody 9% 4% 23% 4% 2% 0% 6% 0% SanchezGaby 15% 14% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% CantuJorge 12% 3% 4% 1% 4% 0% 1% 0% MorrisonLogan 8% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LindseyJohn 5% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% BakerJohn 5% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PaulinoRonny 6% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% JimenezJorge 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MatrangaDave 2% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CarrollBrett 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MaybinCameron 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% AmezagaAlfredo 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% HelmsWes 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RaynorJohn 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% StantonMichael 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 0% DominguezMatt 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PetersenBryan 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% MillerJai 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CousinsScott 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% GonzalezAndy 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BonifacioEmilio 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 0% 16% HayesBrett 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DawkinsGookie 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Josh Johnson 26 3.55 9 5 24 24 147.0 143 58 11 42 130 125 Ricky Nolasco 27 4.01 14 10 34 34 208.2 207 93 25 47 191 111 Burke Badenhop 27 4.50 6 6 30 12 94.0 103 47 8 34 59 99 Henricus van den Hurk 25 4.56 4 4 17 17 81.0 82 41 10 35 75 98 Anibal Sanchez 26 4.69 4 5 16 16 78.2 83 41 8 38 63 95 Christopher Volstad 23 4.69 10 11 31 31 172.2 184 90 21 67 114 95 Andrew Miller* 25 5.28 7 10 33 27 138.0 148 81 16 79 111 84 Dallas Trahern 24 5.32 4 5 13 13 66.0 74 39 9 30 38 84 Clay Hensley 30 5.37 4 7 32 18 107.1 123 64 13 56 74 83 Cristhian Martinez 28 5.40 6 9 28 20 120.0 145 72 17 38 64 82 Brian Lawrence 34 5.52 5 7 16 15 88.0 111 54 11 25 47 81 Ryan Tucker 23 5.54 3 5 20 13 74.2 85 46 8 45 48 80 Sean West* 24 5.76 7 13 29 28 140.2 158 90 22 86 105 77 Graham Taylor* 26 5.79 6 12 28 27 143.0 174 92 20 65 74 77 Hayden Penn 25 5.91 3 5 22 14 77.2 91 51 13 40 58 75 John Koronka* 30 6.06 5 9 24 21 111.1 140 75 16 55 55 73 Brett Sinkbeil 25 6.38 4 8 34 15 97.1 125 69 15 51 47 70 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Kiko Calero 35 3.77 3 2 50 0 45.1 39 19 4 24 47 118 Brendan Donnelly 38 3.82 2 1 37 0 33.0 32 14 3 12 27 116 Brian Sanches 31 4.15 4 3 53 0 60.2 59 28 7 25 57 107 Leo Nunez 26 4.15 5 4 69 0 65.0 61 30 9 24 54 107 Renyel Pinto* 27 4.15 3 3 72 0 65.0 57 30 7 41 60 107 Dan Meyer* 28 4.24 3 3 73 0 68.0 64 32 8 33 60 105 Timothy Wood 27 4.47 3 3 40 0 52.1 54 26 5 25 36 99 Hunter Jones* 26 4.53 3 2 31 0 47.2 50 24 5 19 35 98 Taylor Tankersley* 27 4.58 2 2 46 0 37.1 37 19 5 20 33 97 Gary Glover 33 4.80 3 4 35 0 45.0 48 24 6 15 33 93 Levale Speigner 29 4.84 4 5 55 0 70.2 80 38 6 28 39 92 Jose Ceda 23 5.01 3 3 32 10 64.2 60 36 7 49 59 89 Christopher Leroux 26 5.03 4 5 54 0 68.0 75 38 7 35 51 88 Chris Mobley 26 5.06 3 4 53 0 64.0 73 36 7 26 44 88 Jay Buente 26 5.32 3 4 48 0 67.2 71 40 9 44 57 84 Kris Harvey 26 5.68 3 6 26 2 44.1 49 28 5 33 28 78 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 JohnsonJosh SP 83% 17% 0% PerezPascual BenesAndy ChristensonLarry CaleroKiko RP 37% 48% 14% BerenguerJuan StoddardTim BorlandToby DonnellyBrendan RP 47% 37% 17% JonesTodd PowerTed CampbellBill NolascoRicky SP 57% 40% 3% SandersonScott ShieldsJames HarenDanny SanchesBrian RP 30% 50% 20% PolitteCliff BeckwithJoe CassidyScott NunezLeo RP 25% 53% 22% ThigpenBobby HoytLa Marr MancusoPaul PintoRenyel RP 20% 53% 27% AlmanzaArmando JordanRicardo CottsNeal MeyerDan RP 18% 58% 24% JordanRicardo NitkowskiC.J. CalhounJeff WoodTimothy RP 14% 51% 35% ShepherdKeith CatherMike FioreTony BadenhopBurke SP 10% 50% 40% HodgesKevin DavidsonBob SteirerRick JonesHunter RP 16% 47% 38% HorsmanVince MoloneyBill WaddellJason VandenHurkRick SP 30% 49% 21% DempsterRyan SmithPete FosterKevin TankersleyTaylor RP 12% 40% 47% ParrishJohn EischenJoey RosarioDavid SanchezAnibal SP 23% 51% 26% BanksWillie JenningsJason WalkBob VolstadChris SP 13% 64% 23% GuzmanJose ChiamparinoScott CrawfordSteve GloverGary RP 10% 41% 49% MinorBlas BrennanTom MeachamRusty SpeignerLevale RP 7% 37% 56% SmithDave ComerSteve RoseScott CedaJose SP 5% 32% 63% StallardTracy ParmeleeRoy LangdonTed LerouxChristopher RP 4% 32% 64% ChavezAnthony SchneiderPaul DipotoJerry MobleyChris RP 4% 35% 61% HuismanJustin ChildressRocky MessengerRandy MillerAndrew SP 2% 36% 62% ClaussenBrandon MartinezJesus BurroughsDarren TrahernDallas SP 7% 38% 55% RoweTom PooleJim RandallScott BuenteJay RP 1% 25% 74% ShadeMike McClungSeth MorenoVictor HensleyClay SP 4% 29% 67% HeathcottMike DrumrightMike BenesAlan MartinezCristhian SP 4% 31% 65% TowersJosh SorensenLary BorkowskiDave LawrenceBrian SP 5% 29% 66% MoehlerBrian KesterTim NagyCharles TuckerRyan SP 3% 26% 71% BoyerBlaine LumleyMike TejedaFelix HarveyKris RP 2% 17% 81% SlocumbHeathcliff EyreWillie McCarthyTom WestSean SP 0% 17% 82% MounceTony NortonPhil AldredScott TaylorGraham SP 0% 13% 87% RundlesRich IsenbergKurt SnareRyan PennHayden SP 1% 15% 84% KelingKorey CrucetaFrancisco GohrGreg KoronkaJohn SP 0% 8% 92% ProchaskaMike SmithDan WilliamsMatt SinkbeilBrett SP 0% 1% 99% GryboskiKevin WhitakerSteve TuckerJulien Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 JohnsonJosh 44% 96% 42% 15% 91% CaleroKiko 37% 80% 84% 0% 81% DonnellyBrendan 36% 76% 27% 9% 88% NolascoRicky 16% 84% 59% 50% 44% SanchesBrian 24% 74% 64% 1% 64% NunezLeo 19% 73% 26% 2% 39% PintoRenyel 15% 67% 57% 0% 64% MeyerDan 14% 64% 43% 0% 63% WoodTimothy 10% 49% 3% 0% 80% BadenhopBurke 6% 49% 0% 3% 78% JonesHunter 16% 54% 10% 4% 70% VandenHurkRick 10% 53% 59% 0% 48% TankersleyTaylor 12% 43% 45% 0% 49% SanchezAnibal 6% 46% 21% 0% 70% VolstadChris 1% 36% 0% 0% 40% GloverGary 10% 42% 9% 13% 42% SpeignerLevale 7% 39% 1% 5% 81% CedaJose 3% 31% 47% 0% 54% LerouxChristopher 3% 24% 7% 0% 71% MobleyChris 2% 26% 2% 1% 59% MillerAndrew 0% 10% 15% 0% 47% TrahernDallas 1% 17% 0% 0% 40% BuenteJay 1% 16% 32% 0% 51% HensleyClay 1% 11% 8% 1% 50% MartinezCristhian 1% 11% 0% 13% 27% LawrenceBrian 1% 13% 1% 22% 51% TuckerRyan 0% 12% 1% 0% 59% HarveyKris 1% 14% 2% 0% 66% WestSean 0% 3% 5% 0% 17% TaylorGraham 0% 2% 0% 0% 25% PennHayden 0% 4% 8% 0% 20% KoronkaJohn 0% 1% 0% 0% 21% SinkbeilBrett 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ RamirezHanley .306 .385 .512 2398 9349 1791 2861 578 62 409 1120 1134 1855 508 168 135 UgglaDan .242 .335 .449 1488 5580 912 1349 306 23 268 780 731 1582 34 31 105 JohnsonNick .269 .402 .424 1344 4503 711 1209 271 11 136 644 909 998 40 38 119 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ JohnsonJosh 146 92 0 3.72 401 392 2368 2316 206 751 2081 119 NolascoRicky 154 136 0 4.37 432 402 2407 2455 326 590 2135 101 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
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I love Porkins' projected OBP. He sure would look nice in the Giants lineup. Also, the Marlins have a couple of nice bullpen pieces (Calero and Donnelly) but they seem especially volatile.
e: Scratch that. Calero threw 60 IP last season, I thought it was half that.
The Marlins have such a thin margin for error, considering ownership never has their back, that they really can't afford any more wacky experiments like making Emilio Bonifacio the starting 3B for 4 months.
Can't be that surprised, I'd imagine! 25-year-old shortstop with .900 career OPSs, steal a lot of bases, and hit .320 are pretty darn rare! That Ripken is the number 1 comp shows how darn hard it is to find shortstops that hit that well with speed.
What's their projected rotation? Johnson/Nolasco/Sanchez/Volstad/Miller? Where does that leave Badenhop, West, and VandenHurk?
2B Coghlan
SS Ramirez
3B Cantu
RF Ross
1B Sanchez
C Baker
LF Carroll
C Paulino
1B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez
UT Bonifacio
OF ??? (warm body they'll pick up from other non-tenders)
SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Volstad
SP Miller
CL Nunez
RP Pinto
RP Meyer
RP Tankersley
RP Sanches
RP Wood
SW Badenhop
Starting pitching depth will be Badenhop, West, and Vanden Hurk. Possible we'll see Coghlan in left with someone like Kelly Johnson at second. I have to think first base belongs to Sanchez with Jimenez as the backup corner infielder.
EDIT: Sanchez will not be playing third. He did that in college with spectacular results in the College World Series.
Infield defense is still going to be pretty bad. The bullpen will be iffy too, but it always is when you put it together on a shoestring budget. It could be good.
As usual, the difference between this being a 75 win team and a 90 win team is (a) the young pitching staying healthy and progressing and (b) Hanley not getting hurt. A repeat performance of 87 wins is not out of the question, but with a better Mets squad, a strong Braves team, and an improving Nationals team the Marlins will probably fall in the 80-85 range if they don't bring in any offensive firepower or see any big surprises there.
-- MWE
How far from Hanley is ARod as a comp?
For years, Harold Ballard would have been the obvious answer.
More recently in Hockey, I'd say whoever currently owns the Islanders (Charles Wang?), although Tampa has had an interesting string of owners as well.
Well, he's made no progress in three years; what would you expect?
Pretty far. Hanley's probably closer to Jeter than to ARod. Don't forget that ARod had been a major league regular for six years, and had almost twice as many major league HRs, by the time he was the age that HRam is now.
-- MWE
So, I guess that means he'll do it in real life.
Al Davis?
Really, I think the other bad owners are incompetent. I think Loria's (greed/desire to make money) is just more obvious than other owners' (greed/desire to make money).
-- MWE
While Bill Wirtz lived he was far worse than Loria.
The was serious talk of the Fish non-tendering their second biggest offensive asset because he was due to make something approaching his actual value in arbitration. Barring Beinfest and Hill being made of magic--which they may damn well be given their history--they'll get a bullpen arm, an A ball starter with some upside, and maybe a bench player. Probably from the Giants.
.277/.375/.456 in AA at age 21
.319/.399/.463 in New Orleans at age 22
an 89 OPS+ through age 22 in 250 MLB PAs
and he projects at 79?
FWIW Chone projects Maybin at .265/.352/.405, Dan's .243/.322/.354 looks REALLY low...
recent SS, ages 23-25:
Rk Player OPS+ BA OBP SLG HR PA To From1 Alex Rodriguez 153 .307 .394 .606 135 1976 1999 2001
2 Hanley Ramirez 145 .325 .398 .549 86 2051 2007 2009
3 Nomar Garciaparra 138 .326 .371 .571 92 1981 1997 1999
4 Derek Jeter 128 .321 .397 .478 53 2181 1997 1999
5 Troy Tulowitzki 114 .283 .359 .490 40 1049 2008 2009
6 Travis Fryman 114 .277 .341 .456 60 1944 1992 1994
7 Jose Reyes 112 .292 .355 .461 47 2231 2006 2008
8 Jhonny Peralta 106 .272 .342 .442 58 1849 2005 2007
9 J.J. Hardy 104 .276 .329 .463 55 1406 2006 2008
10 Khalil Greene 103 .259 .321 .437 32 1100 2003 2005
perhaps I should have asked why Nomar didn't make it as a comp....
It's not really the worst projection, anyway. If he plays well defensively, he's still a usable regular in center right now, despite the flaws and just 23.
The current clown show running the Tampa Bay Lightning is probably worse. Keep in mind that they signed Dan Boyle to a 6-year, $40 million contract, making him one of the highest paid defensemen in hockey, with a full no-trade clause, and then forcing him to accept a trade out of town before he had played a single game under that contract, and that that probably isn't their worst personnel decision in the last two years. It may not even be in the top three; hiring Barry Melrose to be the coach and then firing him after 17 games is probably at the top of the list. They are hopelessly under financed, horrible at PR, and have no idea what they are doing.
At least Loria has a plan: he's intent on sucking every dollar out of someone else's pockets that isn't glued in, while paying out as few of them as he can. He's also very good at it. It isn't clear that Len Barrie and Owen Koules are any good at anything other than making torture porn movies.
Are you KIDDING me? The Florida Marlins, who have barely had two decent years in their hisotry, and never a GREAT team, but own two WS trophies? THOSE Marlins!? The fans of the Marlins are possibly the luckiest fans/team ever in terms of recent actual versus deserved success on the diamond. The quoted statement is just nuts.
and that isn't just because NO sucked (which they did) the park factors I've seen suggest you can ignore the fact that they play in the PCL.
The 1997 team was just pretty good. But they won one less game than the Phillies did this season and no one was going to accuse these Phillies of being shams.
And I deserve a World Series trophy EVERY ####### YEAR.
Who do you think you are, a Yankee fan?
The Marlins signed Scott Strickland to a minor league. I had no idea he was still pitching.
It doesn't help that the Marlins play in the biggest strikeout park in the majors nearly every year (Maybin projects as an OPS+ of 82-89 in every other park in the NL).
There are strikeout parks? How so? Does it have to do with the size of the foul territory, or the sun shining in the batter's eyes, or something?
backdrop.
I'm guessing it's The Torture of Hope by Auguste Villiers de l'Isle-Adam.
EDIT: The linke pasted from Wikipedia doesn't seem to work for the author. I think there's a special character in there.
CF Maybin
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cantu
1B Sanchez
RF Ross
C Baker*
C Paulino
1B/3B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez*
UT Bonifacio#
OF Carroll
SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Miller*
SP Volstad
SP Vandenhurk
SP West*
SP Trahern
CL Nunez
RP Pinto*
RP Badenhop
RP Sanches
RP Meyer*
RP Wood
RP McClung
I like this team.
Are you worried they don't have enough left handed batters? Might be a good year for Baker and Coghlan because they shouldn't ever see a lefty that isn't really good.
I've often thought that this concern is overblown. If I remember correctly, the 2003 team that won the championship had 6 straight righties in the lineup after Pierre and Castillo. It didn't stop them from beating some very good right handed pitching in the playoffs, as just about any good hitter fares pretty well against RHP. The greater concern would be stacking left handed batters who struggle against LHP together in a lineup.
I believe righties have a universal 8% platoon advantage against lefties, so yeah, the variance isn't huge. Lefties, on the other hand, have a widely varied platoon split that averages out to around 20% better against righties. So platoon if you can, but if you can't, just put the best player in there and hope for the best.
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