Bourn got boned

So you project 5 Astros to be above average, 1 about average, and the rest below average?

That is a painful projection.

I was going to say Chris Shelton's position was a mistake having never had any significant time at the hot corner, but then i checked his 2009 minor season and he has 83 games at third.

Then i thought maybe you could do an offensive/defensive platoon with Feliz and maybe get some nice production out of that.

Then i noticed his 15 errors.

Bourn would have better projections if he'd avoid having full seasons of a 57 OPS+.

This team could be bad for a long time. The minor league system is pretty bare of any interesting names as well.

They should really trade Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt for some prospects and just start over.

I hope Ray Sadler finds his way back to the majors. On a team this bad, he might.

I've liked him ever since he got called up to the Pirates as a last-minute injury replacement, and Lloyd McClendon mistook him for a construction worker.

That is a pretty big dropoff from the third best hitter to the fourth best. Makes the Jays projection look almost OK.

I had no idea that Aaron Boone was still in baseball.

And is Mark Saccomanno a real person or was the ZiPS machine watching Seinfeld?

ed wade's really bringing the band back together. brett myers, jason michaels, and michael bourn. plus guys like darin erstad, kaz matsui, doug brocail, and armando benitez (really? armando benitez?), it's like a greatest hits of his worst disasters.


all you need is luis castillo.

Well, some of those guys are gone and just here for convenience. Brocail's already announced his retirement and Boone's hinted at it.

I had higher hopes for Felipe Paulino, and I still think there is a good chance he will have an ERA in the 4.5 range. It's surprising that the probability of K/9 greater than 8 is only 29%, when K/9 in 2009 was 8.57. I think Bourn is greatly underrated here. I think his OPS will be in the low to mid 700's. And, his defense in CF is definitely better than average. His UZR and Fielding Bible results are both well above average in CF. The relief pitching looks kind of ugly, with only Lyon appearing to have a decent projection. I think Arias and Fulchino could turn out to be good, based on last year's results, but I can see how ZIPS would forecast worse results until they establish that they can repeat the 09 results.

really? armando benitez?

I am not kidding when I say that I had thought that Armando Benitez was dead. I could have sworn I read something about him dying of heart disease at some point over the last year or two.

I could have sworn I read something about him dying of heart disease at some point over the last year or two.

He pulled a Chase Wright in the minors somewhere last year. He might as well be dead.

Is it me or is Sadler's ERA low for giving up 40 walks in 68 IP?

Benitez played for Newark in the independent league last season, put up decent numbers, and was signed for the Round Rock Express roster late in the season to help replace minor leaguers who had been called up to the big leagues. As I recall, Enos Cabell watched him pitch in the independent league and said he still looked good. The sample size was small in Round Rock, but Benitez didn't pitch well. (4 HR in 8.1 innings.) As far as I know, he hasn't been signed to repeat in AAA.

Carlos Lee should be paying close attention to the makeup of the Veterans' Committee. He's going to look like an actual ballplayer once he's safely retired and no one remembers his "range" or his "effort."

My understanding is that Oswalt, Lee, and Berkman either have NTCs or would rather retire than play for a team other than the Astros. That makes blowing up and starting over pretty much impossible. Vain attempts at contending might actually be the best strategy (although the execution is definitely lacking).

Where's Miguel Tejada?

As someone about to spend his first baseball season in the tv territory of the Astros, thank goodness the Rangers might be interesting. And for MLB.TV.

wandy rodriguez is 31 not 28 - not sure why you think he is going to regreass that much

oswalt berkman and lee all have complete NTC. lee is being paid 18 mill a year for 3 years and if you think that drayton gonna eat money to trade him just for minor leaguers, i got this bridge to see yall. it's berkman's last year of his contract and he doesn't want to be traded. oswalt might could agree, but he has back problems and has been getting worse over the past 3 years. the trading him ship has sailed

and dan is unforetunately right about ed wade and his middle reliever thingy


i can't believe how many people really REALLY believe that pedro freaking feliz is this HUGE upgrade over geoff blum because he's a "winner" or something

tejada took himself and his 30 GIDPs/year back to the orioles

I think what birdlives is getting at is that Tejada wasn't included on the Orioles projections, and isn't included here. He seems to have fallen through the cracks.

297/336/433 for Tejada.

Oh my god!

Is this worse than the Royals?

Are they playing with 8 guys or is Wladimir Sutil really the starting SS?

And filed under things I never thought I'd see -- Wandy Rodriguez projects better than Roy Oswalt.

The Astros always somehow turn out decent but this year ... I don't think there's a soul this side of Jesus Christ's that Beelzebub wants badly enough to turn this into a 500 team.

They will now finish 10 games ahead of the Cubs.

Manzella will be handed the shortstop job. I don't think this experiment will work out well, because Manzella isn't much of a hitter. Ever since they drafted him, the Astros have viewed Manzella as the "next Adam Everett" based on both his defensive and offensive profile. Manzella truly has to play defense as well as Adam Everett to justify the kind of offense he is likely to bring. I doubt that his defense will be that good...but we will see.

Who is John Gall?

Who is John Gall?

used to be in the Cards system I think, AAA lifer. Projected really well for a couple seasons I recall. We've been through all the Rand jokes so don't go there. :-)

oswalt berkman and lee all have complete NTC. lee is being paid 18 mill a year for 3 years and if you think that drayton gonna eat money to trade him just for minor leaguers, i got this bridge to see yall. it's berkman's last year of his contract and he doesn't want to be traded. oswalt might could agree, but he has back problems and has been getting worse over the past 3 years. the trading him ship has sailed

This is terrible. Lee probably doesn't have a lot of trade value, based on how horrible defensive OF are being treated in the FA market now. Ditto Berkman. That leaves Oswalt and his back. I can't see trading them just to save money either since the prospect returns aren't likely to be good. It might be that Wade is being entirely rational in his approach. They're going to suck no matter what, so why not keep some guys around that fans can come out to see.

Is this worse than the Royals?

Yeah, no.

Is this worse than the Royals?

I don't know Kendall, I rarely get to think the Royals are in better shape than anyone else. Don't ruin this for me!

Hey Dan,
How do you account for a batter like Michael Bourn had 17 bunt hits in 37 attempts(20 of which are at-bats), as far as BABIP?

Not questioning your Bourn projection, just more of a technical question.

Just looking at the "age" column for the hitters is pretty disturbing, even beyond the very high rankings of such luminaries as Jeff Keppinger, Jason Michaels, Chris Shelton, John Gall and Bob Saccamanno.
34
34
27 (Pence)
30
30
30
34
27 (Bourn)
30
32
34
26 (Alex Romero)
37
26 (a catcher!!!!!!!!)
35
37
23
25
26
29
30
.........

They do have a few youngsters projected to be absolutely terrible, so there's some hope.

At least looking at Berkman's projected career line is interesting. He'll probably edge Chipper in HR but not AVG (I know, but if you think the HOF voters aren't going to consider the fact that Chipper has the highest switch hitter career average your crazy). Both guys have the "cause he's Chipper Jones/Lance Berkman" factor, but I don't see either being the slam dunk that the writers seem to claim they are.

How is Chipper not a slam dunk?

We've been through all the Rand jokes so don't go there. :-)

Walt has shrugged.

It seems fairly obvious at this point that this Szymborski character is biased against the Angels. How else could one explain his insistence on projecting the team with the most wins in baseball over the past couple of years after all of the other teams?

Due to this obvious inability to look at the matter objectively, I reject all of his conclusions.

Chipper has 9000+ PA at Berkman's current level of career OPS+ (147), if you leave off Chipper's first year and this last year, both of which probably added value. So unless you think Berkman has another 3000 PA at 147 OPS+ in him, Chipper has a better career, as a hitter, than Berkman. Oh, and then you realize that Chipper's a 3B.

I'm not sure why you think Chipper and Lance are so close.

I was going to say Chris Shelton's position was a mistake having never had any significant time at the hot corner, but then i checked his 2009 minor season and he has 83 games at third.

It was a mutual decision between the Mariner people and Shelton's people in 2009. He had no shot of sticking in Seattle as a platoon 1B/DH, and at least two 1B in the system (Jeff Clement, Mike Karp) were going to get playing time ahead of him at AAA, so he played 3B. He's not a third baseman, so it's an understandable mistake.

I miss the inside jokes about Ed Wade's middle relievers that should have festooned this thread. Out of the 18 relievers in the ODDIBE table above, I'm kind of surprised that only 1 of their 54 comps is a recent Philly middle reliever (Matt Ginter -> Clay Condrey). For old times you could include Jose Mesa or Don Carman.

I dunno:

Astros lineup OPS+: 136 (1b), 122 (LF), 109 (RF), 79 (CF), 80 (2B), 83/75 (C), 78 (3B), 67 (ss) with equally bad stuff on the bench.

Royals lineup OPS+: 116 (1B), 107 (LF/CF), 99 (2B), 95 (3B), 96 (DH?), 79 (SS), 73 (C), 91 (LF/CF) plus I can't remember or figure out who's in RF.

Thing is, I'm not sure the Astros' lineup is better than the Royals and, if it is, it's by the slimmest of margins. Yes, Berkman's a stud the Royals don't have but they do have a lot of 95 OPS+ vs. 80 OPS+ advantages to help make up for it.

On the pitching side, you have the opposite extreme with Greinke and Soria being great and nobody else on the Royals even being league average vs. 2 good starters, Brandon Lyon, a flotilla of 100 ERA+ relievers and a somewhat better group of 6th starters masquerading as 3rd starters.

Now, put these two teams together and .... I'm still not that impressed:

LF: Lee or DeJesus
CF: Bourn or DeJesus
RF: Pence
1B: Berkman (or Butler if he's better defensively and we're in the AL)
2B: Callaspo I guess
SS: ugh
3B: Gordon
C: ugh
DH: Butler or Lee

Awesome top 3 starters and 2 good relievers. Good lineup I suppose with C and SS being the only two sub-100 OPS+ type bats. Defense looks pretty horrible, especially if we play Betancourt (and any days we've got Lee/DeJesus/Pence in the OF too).

Dan, what sayeth ZiPS on the awesome Royals-Astros matchup?

1B: Berkman (or Butler if he's better defensively and we're in the AL)

I don't think Butler is supposed to be better than anybody defensively.

And I thought that the Royals were going with Getz as their second baseman, for some reason.

"using feats of subterfugue"

The summer sun of Texas beat down upon the stadium, but to no avail. Houstonians had never had any truck with the sun since the invention of air conditioning. It would have to look elsewhere for entertainment.

Oblivious to the photon deflection overhead, Albert Pujols stepped to the plate. He was, as always, calm and focused. Even his fond memories of this stadium and this opponent had no place in his thinking just now. It was the sixth inning, Wandy Rodriguez was pitching shutout ball with a two run lead, and the Cardinals needed some offense. They needed Albert. And Albert was prepared.

He dug in. With one out and no one on, his responsibility was clear: take whatever Rodriguez gave him. Be alert to the possibilities. Go with the flow of the game, and take your chance when it comes. The murmur of the crowd, currently lulled here in the middle stages, did not impinge on his consciousness. Only his stance, his ritual, and the pitcher sixty feet away.

And... something else. At the edge of thought. So subliminal, it was almost drowned out by the movement of the air around his bat as he cocked it above his shoulder. He wouldn't have realized it was there at all, but this was his third at-bat, and the repetition was breaking through to his conscious mind. It was as if... it was as if his every thought and action was echoed, almost immediately, a double-take by a ghost of himself standing at the plate not quite at that very moment. Sort of an instant deja-vu effect.

Albert briefly shook his head. He had never let his mind play tricks on him before, and he certainly wasn't starting now. He focused on Wandy Rodriguez, on the pitcher's eyes staring back at him, mano-a-mano. Yes, that's it. That's right. Wind up and deliver. I'll be there to meet you.

The left-hander leaned back, coiled, and fired. Albert could see the seams spinning as the ball departed the pitcher's grip, and a lifetime of muscle memory kicked into action. Fastball, low and in. But not in enough! His bat spun forward with grace and power, in a motion recognizable to all. He's locked in on this one, everyone in the crowd knew it. The ball was ticketed for the upper deck.

Then it was over. Albert stood in the batter's box, bat still loosely held to his left side, not quite believing his ears. He couldn't possibly have heard the ball smack snugly into the catcher's mitt. No contact at all! But he'd had that one. Everything had been just right.

And, discordantly, at the outer limit of his mind, the glee of the home run he had just hit - or hadn't he? - rang in ethereal chorale. He could feel the echo of success. And yet, here he was, standing at the plate, strike three sounding from the umpire's hoarse throat. And somewhere, someone was laughing hysterically. Albert didn't know how he knew it, but he knew that he'd been played somehow. And he also knew he would never be able to explain it to anyone.

Later in the year, when the voodoo doll fell out of Lance Berkman's pocket, he claimed it was it was a gag gift for Roy Oswalt, a resin bag that he and Roy had had a good laugh over, and that Lance now carried as a good luck charm. Nobody made the connection between this incident and the Astros' late-season collapse, not even Albert Pujols. Which was probably just as well, for everyone's sake.

Dan, what sayeth ZiPS on the awesome Royals-Astros matchup?

I'd think it'd say something along the lines of: "The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"

And I thought that the Royals were going with Getz as their second baseman, for some reason.

I think you're right. Not sure if Getz or Matsui would start on the combo team.

EDIT: and I forgot Josh Fields on the Royals. Is he the RF?

using feats of subterfugue

Is this Bach disguised as Beethoven?

Oh, and then you realize that Chipper's a 3B.

Berkman played almost a full season in CF, and he was surprisingly capable. He has also played the corner outfield positions for much of his career. The knee injury he suffered in a church-sponsored flag football game pretty much confined his future to 1st base in 2005. Berkman still says he is willing to play RF if the Astros want him to do so; however, that's not going to happen.

Berkman isn't a bad first baseman. For his career, he is barely positive (+0.5) at first base, which means he is probably average. But his UZR alternates good and bad each year at 1st base: 05, -6.8; 06 +5.6; 07 -2.0; 08 +6.7; 09 -5.2. Berkman is also known for alternating his up and down offensive seasons (though the down years aren't all that bad). If the pattern continues, he is due for an up year in 2010 on both offense and defense.

I don't think Butler is supposed to be better than anybody defensively.

He's apparently better than Mike Jacobs.

is there any chance that getting out of Philly will allow Myers to reach his potential? I wouldn't be surprised at all if the top three starting pitchers for the Astros all break 120 era+. (wouldn't predict it mind you, but I don't think it is out of the question either) I'll take the over on Keppinger also.

As an Astros fan, I realize the team will be bad for a while no matter what happens. Therefore, I would just assume that Oswalt and Berkman remain on the team for a few more years, to compile enough counting stats to deserve having their numbers retired, so that we end up with four numbers retired from the World Series team of 2005.

is there any chance that getting out of Philly will allow Myers to reach his potential?

In what way was being in Philly limiting Myers' potential? Non-snark, genuinely curious. It sure looked like he reached his potential in '05-'06.

hear hear, grunthos, that was a quality read!

oh and i'd be remiss if i didn't mention that my great hope for the astros this year is the return of babe shelton. he's able to give us an exciting month of baseball, and i'm certainly hoping for one.