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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, October 12, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
What can you say about the Royals?The people who rightly criticize the Royals for not taking into account any advances in baseball thought in the last 30 years are actually missing the main problem with the Royals. It's simply that they don't seem to utilize any kind of rational thought process at all.
Teams can still be plenty successful without having a front office full of statnerds. Traits like creativity and a clear outline of short and long-term goals can be found in non-stat front offices. The Royals do not possess those traits.
One could write a doctoral thesis on the management bloopers of the Royals, but the primary problems of the Royals can be distilled quite well from just two transations. Namely, the use of Bloomquist in rightfield and the Betancourt trade. In both situations, the Royals showed no ability to adjust to unexpected situations.
In the former, the Royals, a team going nowhere, couldn't find anything better to do than give 105 starts to a pretty generic utility player in his 30s. The idea that they couldn't find anyone to get that playing time is absurd. Take a look at Garrett Jones in Pittsburgh. He's unlikely to be some superstar going forward or anything, but the Pirates found a player who might actually have a bit of value over the next 6 years, something that never would have happened if they decided to bring in Juan Castro or something.
In the case of Betancourt, the team once again panicked when a problem arose and having no idea what to fix it or even apply a tourniquet, they randomly throw prospects for a player that nobody wanted. If only the Royals spent as much time analyzing players as they did carpet-bombing the press with ridiculous quotes about Betancourt's ability and having their feelings hurt by mean ol' Rany Jazayerli, perhaps the franchise wouldn't look like an expansion team in a league with a horribly unfair expansion draft.
A lot of people like to point out the Royals as an example of injustice in baseball's finances, but the Royals being where they are seems to be completely fair to me. Should Rick Bayless or Wylie Dufresne be forced to pay a percentage of their revenues to an 4-year-old in Peoria feeding Play-Doh spaghetti to his parents?
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Billy Butler 1b 24 .293 .355 .475 160 600 76 176 39 2 22 90 58 97 1 0 116 David DeJesus* lf 30 .285 .357 .435 138 540 80 154 28 7 13 68 52 83 7 7 107 Alberto Callaspo# 2b 27 .290 .345 .416 122 435 58 126 24 5 7 49 38 40 2 2 99 Kila Kaaihue 1b 25 .255 .350 .403 133 471 63 120 23 1 15 58 68 95 1 1 98 Alex Gordon* 3b 26 .248 .333 .415 114 419 58 104 24 2 14 51 47 112 9 2 95 Jose Guillen rf 34 .265 .322 .431 105 392 46 104 21 1 14 62 24 74 2 0 96 Mark Teahen* 3b 28 .265 .328 .420 142 528 70 140 29 4 15 56 46 130 8 2 95 Brayan Pena# c 28 .281 .328 .413 95 310 34 87 18 1 7 34 20 34 4 4 93 Mike Jacobs* dh 29 .242 .301 .441 126 438 49 106 22 1 21 62 36 117 1 0 92 Coco Crisp# cf 30 .257 .328 .382 93 327 46 84 15 4 6 29 35 55 18 4 86 Ryan Shealy 1b 30 .249 .320 .391 78 289 30 72 14 0 9 38 27 75 0 0 86 Scott Thorman* 1b 28 .256 .300 .432 117 398 40 102 20 1 16 48 21 85 5 2 89 J.R. House c 30 .269 .316 .391 124 476 54 128 26 1 10 53 32 66 1 2 85 Mike Aviles ss 29 .275 .306 .403 100 397 51 109 21 3 8 42 18 58 6 2 85 Tug Hulett* 2b 27 .253 .324 .380 118 439 61 111 23 3 9 42 46 100 10 4 85 Mitch Maier* cf 28 .268 .323 .378 130 447 57 120 22 3 7 43 35 83 9 4 84 Jordan Parraz rf 25 .263 .332 .374 100 388 49 102 21 2 6 42 31 78 12 9 85 Willie Bloomquist rf 32 .271 .326 .361 97 277 40 75 10 3 3 19 22 49 15 5 81 John Buck c 29 .227 .297 .412 95 308 34 70 16 1 13 44 27 87 0 1 84 Brian Buchanan dh 36 .255 .300 .389 42 149 16 38 8 0 4 22 9 32 2 0 80 Miguel Olivo c 31 .242 .276 .435 105 372 39 90 17 2 17 50 14 110 4 2 83 Josh Anderson* lf 27 .269 .311 .352 138 472 64 127 19 4 4 37 24 70 30 7 74 Johnny Giavotella 2b 22 .259 .316 .367 112 433 71 112 23 3 6 41 36 58 14 9 79 Yuniesky Betancourt* ss 28 .271 .297 .390 144 513 57 139 29 4 8 51 20 45 5 4 79 Tim Raines Jr.# cf 30 .254 .290 .381 103 362 49 92 16 3 8 39 18 76 17 3 75 Cody Clark c 28 .253 .301 .385 59 182 20 46 10 1 4 20 10 35 1 1 79 John Suomi* c 29 .256 .305 .374 66 219 25 56 12 1 4 23 14 38 0 2 78 Mike Moustakas* 3b 21 .250 .290 .390 133 525 61 131 28 2 14 69 28 107 7 7 77 Joseph Dickerson* lf 23 .261 .319 .351 77 291 31 76 13 2 3 29 21 56 12 9 76 Irving Falu# ss 27 .271 .318 .334 118 458 56 124 17 3 2 36 32 46 11 8 72 Chris Lubanski* lf 25 .233 .288 .362 88 326 37 76 15 3 7 32 26 88 5 3 70 Jeffrey Howell c 27 .245 .290 .337 76 261 23 64 13 1 3 27 15 56 1 3 65 Jose Duarte cf 25 .244 .298 .319 128 492 62 120 19 3 4 39 37 105 19 10 63 Eric Hosmer* 1b 20 .222 .289 .325 111 415 36 92 19 3 6 54 39 115 2 2 61 Tommy Murphy# cf 30 .236 .295 .326 99 356 41 84 16 2 4 21 28 88 16 8 63 Luis Hernandez# ss 26 .258 .292 .322 108 357 37 92 15 1 2 30 17 50 4 4 62 Jeff Bianchi ss 23 .239 .275 .336 119 464 54 111 23 2 6 48 23 115 12 5 60 Mario Lisson ss 26 .231 .278 .331 132 498 52 115 24 1 8 51 28 127 17 8 60 Cory Aldridge* rf 31 .242 .249 .393 91 331 31 80 16 2 10 39 2 94 2 3 80 Derrick Robinson# cf 22 .233 .274 .304 127 527 66 123 20 4 3 37 28 115 43 19 52 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Butler Fr/148 DeJesus* Ex/33 Fr/91 Av/91 Callaspo# Fr/120 Av/120 Fr/120 Kaaihue Av/168 Gordon* Av/113 Av/113 Guillen Pr/80 Pr/154 Teahen* Av/107 Fr/107 Fr/99 Fr/99 Pena# Av Av/120 Fr/120 Fr/120 Jacobs* Pr/191 Crisp# Vg/85 Shealy Av/83 Thorman* Vg/140 Pr/168 Av/164 Av/164 House Pr Av/75 Aviles Vg/119 Vg/145 Vg/102 Hulett* Vg/120 Av/74 Maier* Vg/67 Av/85 Vg/67 Parraz Av/169 Pr/150 Av/169 Bloomquist Av/70 Av/70 Av/70 Av/70 Vg/70 Fr/100 Vg/70 Buck Fr Buchanan Pr/85 Pr/85 Olivo Av Anderson* Av/210 Vg/136 Fr/146 Vg/168 Giavotella Av/149 Betancourt* Pr/116 Raines# Av/132 Fr/132 Av/132 Clark Fr Suomi* Av Fr/130 Moustakas* Av/118 Dickerson* Fr/160 Pr/94 Fr/82 Falu# Av/69 Av/69 Av/154 Av/80 Fr/80 Lubanski* Av/134 Howell Av Duarte Vg/116 Vg/116 Vg/116 Hosmer* Av/111 Murphy# Vg/117 Av/117 Vg/117 Hernandez# Av/99 Av/99 Bianchi Av/81 Fr/97 Lisson Vg/93 Vg/93 Fr/93 Aldridge* Fr/90 Fr/136 Robinson# Vg/175 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 ButlerBilly 1B 9% 29% 29% 27% 6% KonerkoPaul IvieMike JoynerWally DeJesusDavid LF 8% 19% 19% 24% 30% MooreJo-Jo MitchellDale WalkerDixie CallaspoAlberto 2B 16% 22% 25% 23% 13% IzturisMaicer FuentesTito HudsonOrlando GuillenJose RF 1% 9% 14% 27% 48% JordanBrian SierraRuben MillerBing TeahenMark 3B 3% 14% 23% 32% 28% HinskeEric LyonsSteve KoskieCorey GordonAlex 3B 4% 12% 29% 35% 20% HinskeEric KoskieCorey CastoKory Ka'aihueKila 1B 1% 5% 11% 39% 45% SuttonLarry JohnsonDan AbadAndy PenaBrayan C 5% 26% 30% 28% 11% SmithHal EstradaJohnny MooreCharlie CrispCoco CF 4% 9% 29% 39% 19% PrietoChris BrownAdrian ThomasDerrel JacobsMike DH 0% 2% 6% 29% 63% CruzIvan LieferJeff LancellottiRick ThormanScott LF 1% 5% 6% 15% 73% BrownDee CepickyMatthew OglivieBen AvilesMike SS 4% 12% 33% 33% 17% GarciaCarlos MearesPat PaganJose BloomquistWillie RF 0% 2% 4% 15% 79% FoxPete BautistaDanny GipsonCharles MaierMitch CF 2% 3% 13% 33% 50% HeathcoteCliff SchumakerSkip SimpsonJoe HulettTug 2B 3% 6% 13% 32% 46% ClappStubby MartinStu FontenotMike ShealyRyan DH 0% 1% 2% 17% 80% SchallGene FreireAlejandro VitielloJoe HouseJ.R. C 1% 10% 21% 41% 27% SmithHal WilsonDan HallToby AndersonJosh LF 0% 1% 2% 9% 89% RobinsonKerry DiloneMiguel GoodwinTom BuchananBrian DH 0% 2% 2% 11% 85% DropoWalt HitchcockBilly KennedyBob ParrazJordan RF 1% 1% 1% 5% 92% MateoRuben BrownEmil OrtegaBill RainesTim CF 1% 3% 12% 33% 51% ScottTony TorresAndresMcCrackenQuinton OlivoMiguel C 4% 11% 22% 37% 27% HeganJim HeathMike BerryCharlie BetancourtYuniesk SS 2% 5% 17% 31% 45% DiSarcinaGary BailorBob WilsonJack BuckJohn C 1% 11% 22% 40% 27% YeagerSteve WidgerChris KarkoviceRon GiavotellaJohnny 2B 0% 1% 4% 19% 75% BabittShooty RivasLuis GomezRudy ClarkCody C 0% 2% 12% 46% 39% HornerJim JohnsonBrian FordyceBrook AldridgeCory RF 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% RiosArmando MooreGene HowittDann SuomiJohn C 0% 4% 10% 34% 52% GuldenBrad MyersGreg TaylorSammy MoustakasMike 3B 0% 0% 1% 8% 90% HodgesScott CooperScott MosesMatthew DickersonJoseph LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% BrickellFred AlmadaMel ColesCorey FaluIrving 2B 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% MilesAaron JohnsonWallace MaciasJose LubanskiChris LF 0% 0% 1% 1% 98% HamiltonJon O'LearyTroy RigsbyRandy MurphyTommy CF 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% ScottTonyMcCrackenQuinton BudzinskiMark DuarteJose CF 0% 0% 1% 1% 98% HallmarkPat DurhamChad ShanksJames BianchiJeffrey SS 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% CosmeCaonabo KutcherRandy HallBill HernandezLuis SS 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% DeLaCruzChris SandovalDanny BritoLuis HowellJeffrey C 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% DifeliceMike MillerDamian DempseyPat LissonMario SS 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% GonzalezAlex BannonJeff ChavezAngel HosmerEric 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% IshikawaTravis FrymanTroy BurfordKevin RobinsonDerrick CF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% JamesKennyPendergrassTyron VictorinoShane Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB ButlerBilly 37% 19% 22% 7% 25% 0% 11% 0% DeJesusDavid 32% 25% 10% 4% 4% 28% 1% 0% CallaspoAlberto 37% 15% 2% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% GuillenJose 10% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TeahenMark 9% 4% 4% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% GordonAlex 2% 5% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% Ka'aihueKila 4% 15% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PenaBrayan 29% 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CrispCoco 7% 5% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% JacobsMike 1% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% ThormanScott 5% 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% AvilesMike 18% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% BloomquistWillie 17% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MaierMitch 12% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HulettTug 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ShealyRyan 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HouseJ.R. 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AndersonJosh 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 56% BuchananBrian 12% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ParrazJordan 8% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RainesTim 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% OlivoMiguel 1% 0% 8% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% BetancourtYuniesk 15% 0% 1% 0% 3% 3% 0% 0% BuckJohn 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GiavotellaJohnny 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% ClarkCody 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AldridgeCory 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SuomiJohn 10% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MoustakasMike 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DickersonJoseph 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FaluIrving 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% LubanskiChris 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MurphyTommy 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% DuarteJose 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% BianchiJeffrey 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HernandezLuis 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HowellJeffrey 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LissonMario 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% HosmerEric 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RobinsonDerrick 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 98% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Zack Greinke 26 3.11 16 9 34 34 226.0 205 78 18 54 228 142 Gil Meche 31 4.67 9 13 30 30 181.0 188 94 20 67 136 94 Michael Montgomery* 20 5.09 4 7 22 22 99.0 110 56 6 54 57 86 Kyle Davies 26 5.25 8 15 32 32 166.1 179 97 22 79 111 84 Lenny Dinardo* 30 5.32 6 10 31 21 130.1 161 77 11 49 69 83 Brian Bannister 29 5.49 7 14 27 27 155.2 175 95 23 50 85 80 Dusty Hughes* 28 5.51 3 6 35 14 101.1 116 62 11 52 60 80 Daniel Duffy* 21 5.63 4 9 22 22 100.2 114 63 12 51 64 78 Luke Hochevar 26 5.69 7 15 31 30 172.1 196 109 22 55 110 77 Bruce Chen* 33 5.70 3 6 27 14 94.2 110 60 17 36 63 77 Sidney Ponson 33 5.87 3 8 21 18 102.2 130 67 12 39 47 75 Brandon Duckworth 34 5.88 4 9 25 17 104.0 120 68 15 45 52 75 Rowdy Hardy* 27 5.92 4 11 25 21 124.2 164 82 15 37 48 74 Michael O'Connor* 29 6.03 3 8 21 17 88.0 108 59 17 29 43 73 Anthony Lerew 27 6.25 3 8 19 18 90.2 113 63 14 49 44 70 Matt Wright 28 6.27 3 8 20 16 94.2 117 66 17 38 44 70 Heath Phillips* 28 6.31 4 11 34 20 127.0 167 89 19 55 61 70 Blake Wood 24 6.39 3 10 22 20 100.0 121 71 15 48 53 69 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joakim Soria 26 3.03 4 2 58 0 62.1 48 21 6 19 72 147 Juan Cruz 31 4.58 3 4 52 0 53.0 49 27 6 30 52 95 Kyle Farnsworth 34 4.62 2 3 54 0 50.2 54 26 7 20 45 95 Doug Waechter 29 4.96 2 3 33 1 45.1 53 25 6 14 23 88 Jamey Wright 35 4.98 4 6 67 0 77.2 81 43 8 38 55 88 John Bale* 36 4.99 1 2 38 5 39.2 45 22 4 16 29 88 Rob Tejeda 28 5.03 4 6 37 11 87.2 77 49 9 55 84 86 Tim Hamulack* 33 5.08 1 2 27 0 39.0 44 22 5 14 24 86 Henry Barrera 24 5.09 0 1 20 0 23.0 24 13 2 16 20 86 Victor Marte 29 5.09 3 5 48 0 70.2 75 40 5 38 42 86 Carlos Rosa 25 5.10 3 5 54 0 65.1 72 37 7 29 45 85 Roman Colon 30 5.47 3 6 40 3 74.0 86 45 10 29 40 80 Yasuhiko Yabuta 37 5.62 2 5 41 0 57.2 66 36 7 27 40 78 Christopher Nicoll 26 6.30 2 7 34 6 74.1 88 52 13 37 47 70 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 SoriaJoakim RP 80% 19% 1% PapelbonJonathan OsunaAntonio NenRobb GreinkeZack SP 97% 3% 0% BlylevenBert ClemensRoger SeaverTom CruzJuan RP 9% 45% 47% HenryDwayne LaCorteFrank WilliamsMike FarnsworthKyle RP 9% 46% 46% WorrellTodd PlunkEric ParrettJeff MecheGil SP 13% 60% 27% LearyTim GuzmanJuan ParrisSteve TejedaRobinson RP 3% 38% 59% LidgeBrad SchiraldiCalvin WilliamsFrank WrightJamey RP 2% 28% 70% HenryDoug MecirJim BairDoug WaechterDoug RP 7% 34% 59% WinchesterScott GreerKenny PattersonDanny RosaCarlos RP 3% 30% 68% HendersonScott HuismannMark BatemanJoe HamulackTim RP 9% 31% 60% ShouseBrian MagnanteMike CormierRheal BaleJohn RP 7% 27% 66% GroomBuddy CormierRheal EmbreeAlan MarteVictor RP 2% 28% 71% LugoRuddy FioreTony RiedlingJohn MontgomeryMichael SP 7% 42% 51% HancockChris BirtsasTim MillerMike BarreraHenry RP 18% 30% 52% KimballNewt RaymondClaude CastilloBobby DaviesKyle SP 3% 37% 61% PattersonJohn RiveraBen HendersonRod DiNardoLenny SP 4% 31% 66% ZerbeChad MerckerKent KarlScott BannisterBrian SP 1% 23% 76% DriskillTravis HernandezManny BoydOil Can RandolphSteve RP 2% 17% 81% DeLuciaRich CharltonNorm MillerTrever ColonRoman RP 0% 15% 85% SoffRay SchmackBrian WellsBob HughesDusty SP 0% 11% 89% BarzillaPhilip ClarkBryan FasseroJeff DuffyDaniel SP 1% 23% 76% DownsScott ClaussenBrandon JacksonDanny YabutaYasuhiko RP 1% 12% 87% JonesTodd ServiceScott ClarkTerry HochevarLuke SP 0% 13% 87% DuchschererJustin RupeRyan PineiroJoel ChenBruce SP 2% 15% 83% BarnesBrian SwindellGreg CurtisJohn DuckworthBrandon SP 1% 11% 88% CastilloFrank LazorkoJack DeSilvaJohn PonsonSidney SP 1% 13% 86% AhearnePat MoehlerBrian JohnsonJason HardyRowdy SP 1% 12% 88% PriestEddie GassnerDave RheineckerJohn O'ConnorMike SP 1% 12% 87% WalkerJamie LeekRandy IlsleyBlaise LerewAnthony SP 0% 6% 94% CrawfordSteve TaylorKerry BullingtonBryan WrightMatt SP 0% 5% 95% GothreauxJared RodriguezRicardo RandallScott NicollChristopher RP 0% 3% 97% PalkiJeromy SessionsDoug TroutmanKeith PhillipsHeath SP 0% 3% 97% MusselmanJeff McConnellSam UrbanJeff WoodBlake SP 0% 4% 96% KnoxBrad HensleyClay ReynoldsShane Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 SoriaJoakim 74% 98% 98% 14% 81% GreinkeZack 74% 99% 84% 34% 92% CruzJuan 9% 46% 72% 0% 61% FarnsworthKyle 9% 38% 50% 2% 47% MecheGil 2% 36% 5% 0% 58% TejedaRobinson 2% 30% 70% 0% 75% WrightJamey 2% 25% 3% 0% 74% WaechterDoug 7% 33% 0% 21% 51% RosaCarlos 2% 26% 2% 0% 61% HamulackTim 6% 32% 2% 14% 44% BaleJohn 4% 26% 9% 5% 64% MarteVictor 1% 19% 0% 0% 95% MontgomeryMichael 1% 17% 0% 0% 96% BarreraHenry 11% 37% 38% 0% 79% DaviesKyle 0% 12% 1% 0% 37% DiNardoLenny 0% 11% 0% 3% 79% BannisterBrian 0% 5% 0% 3% 17% RandolphSteve 1% 14% 60% 0% 34% ColonRoman 0% 9% 0% 1% 34% HughesDusty 0% 6% 1% 0% 59% DuffyDaniel 0% 6% 0% 0% 46% YabutaYasuhiko 1% 10% 4% 0% 45% HochevarLuke 0% 2% 0% 2% 31% ChenBruce 0% 5% 3% 2% 16% DuckworthBrandon 0% 3% 0% 0% 32% PonsonSidney 0% 3% 0% 2% 47% HardyRowdy 0% 2% 0% 14% 47% O'ConnorMike 0% 3% 0% 7% 10% LerewAnthony 0% 1% 0% 0% 21% WrightMatt 0% 1% 0% 1% 12% NicollChristopher 0% 1% 0% 0% 14% PhillipsHeath 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% WoodBlake 0% 1% 0% 0% 22% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ ButlerBilly .281 .346 .451 2026 7527 924 2117 469 22 256 1081 748 1229 11 5 108 GuillenJose .269 .321 .438 1719 6178 786 1664 324 24 223 935 338 1147 35 26 98 JacobsMike .248 .308 .456 951 3302 398 819 183 10 161 501 280 852 9 2 98 GordonAlex .244 .328 .402 1173 4287 573 1044 242 19 133 498 473 1112 92 22 91 DeJesusDavid .281 .352 .422 1409 5444 803 1528 286 72 113 649 510 837 73 71 103 CrispCoco .267 .328 .393 1298 4744 689 1269 239 49 86 464 431 733 218 69 89 BetancourtYunies .270 .295 .385 1221 4342 488 1172 244 38 60 421 160 395 42 39 79 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ GreinkeZack 235 171 4 3.56 706 537 3626 3466 362 955 3444 124 MecheGil 132 142 0 4.61 396 392 2304 2360 275 915 1707 96 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 12, 2009 at 12:54 AM | 42 comment(s)
Related News: Kansas City, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Kansas City, Projections, ZIPS
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Corey Koskie and Kory Casto on Gordon's comps -- c'mon, you rigged that. :-) (I'd never actually heard of Casto)
Don't they have homeless in Kansas City?
Shame on you
AAAA 3B/DH, a few years ago two guys in my Roto league actually fought over him- thinking he'd be a big deal...
Hit .290/.394/.510 in the Carolina League one year, .272/.379/.468 in the Eastern League...
It's a shame that Buck O'Neil passed on.
having Larry Sutton as a comp is probably not gonna help Kila Kaaihue's career
I had forgotten about Sutton. I always thought of him as the 90s Tommy Hutton but on lookup, I insult the mediocre Hutton by equating him with Sutton.
Homeless people, Dan. People.
I'm sure the Royals are hoping that Duffy turns into Danny Jackson, but I suspect he'll be more like the other two comps.
-- MWE
Homeless people, Dan. People.
Healthy feral cats are better options in a corner outfield spot than Willie Bloomquist - I don't think many have ".332 career slugging percentage" on their resumés.
BTW one was a World Series, the other not, but other than that completely interchangeable.
This will be his 4th off-season...
So if in 2010 the Royals go 67-95. does he stay? (5 year extension sez yes)...
The Moore era Royals look a lot like the DL lead Pirates to me.
If Greinke hadn't gone all Koufax this team would have lost 100.
Back to Bloomquist and the homeless ... That seems to have been who was on KC's AAA roster. Look at that list. After DeJesus, Guillen and the injured Crisp, the next OF listed is Mitch Maier (to whom the Royals did give reasonable playing time). They also gave time to Josh Anderson after they picked him up. Anyway, after Maier you get a guy named Jordan Parraz then Bloomquist. Parraz seems to have been hurt for part of the year (I don't know which part) but did tear up AA. ZiPS defensive chart suggests the Royals could have trotted Pena or Thorman out in RF before Bloomquist.
I come not to defend the notion of Bloomquist in RF which is clearly counter to everything that is right and holy. Just pointing out how putrid this roster is that it has neither some kid who might have been worth a shot nor a Garrett Jones type anywhere to be found.
They absolutely should have taken a flyer on Jordan Parraz in right field. Yeah, he was hurt a bit, out for some time in June, then missed all of August, but who's to say whether he gets hurt if he's with the major league team instead of AA and AAA?
Dan, why are you projecting Ponson when he was given his outright release in July after he refused AAA assignment?
Ponson: What team should he be projected with? 'Cause he's likely to end up somewhere...
The Japan Whatevers.
Dan, why are you projecting Ponson when he was given his outright release in July after he refused AAA assignment?
Duh. Guess I could read better, huh?
Is this a record for ZiPS? Hell, is this a record for any projection system?
I'd hope so
With the Royals need for a right fielder and Moore's Braves connection, I know just the guy they should be trying to acquire.
There's an entire outfield of awesomeness to pick up!
Which I will boldly predict has a typo somewhere along the line, since 2 walks is a completely implausible projection and his slashline doesn't actuually appear to equal an 80 ops+ (compared with betancourt and moustakas ) which it would with a sensible number of walks.
edit: Though I do think that at least trying to shoplift Gordon is something the Mutts should be doing.
Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.
Small role. I went through every possible split of seasons of baseball history and made a regression model for (xERA-ERA). In Hochevar's case, he's been way below, so he retains more of that.
This is true. I found one in my backyard and he's given me a .407 SLG in APBA.
Gil Meche is about to become an albatross, isn't he?
Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.
Dayton cannot let a player go unless he feels like he gets awesome value for him. Supposedly he shopped Teahen around last winter and when the only offers were for guys like Mike Fontenot and Ben Francisco, he said no. I've read rumors he asks for way too much for his own players. He seems to have a serious delusion about the value of players on the market if he gives up Dan Cortes AND Derrick Saito for a shortstop many thought would be DFAed.
This is also why Jose Guillen will never ever be released and why Mike Jacobs will probably be tendered a contract.
Another thing he has in common with Littlefield.
In a best case scenario, they still can't aspire to mediocrity.
I've often thought the same thing about Kenny Williams. The difference is that Kenny Williams identifies the talent he wants and goes and gets it, be it Jake Peavy, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Nick Swisher, etc. I suppose outbidding the market works when you're getting good talent in return for prospects.
Moore's problem isn't that he gave up talent for Betancourt, it's that he acquired Betancourt at all.
I remember when Moore's predecessor acquired the Neifinator, and someone wrote that it was "evidence that he was actively blowing the talent evaluation aspect of his job"
Remember when Moore came in, and everyone assumed he'd be an improvement, he was "well regarded" and came from the Braves' system? Then he wildly overpaid for Gil Meche (or so it seemed)
and then Meche pulled a 128 ERA+ out of his ass* (and followed up with a 107).
And people said hey, he knows his stuff, he can see what is not readily apparent....
Meche is just one data point
Betancourt is another...
I think that Moore does seem to have some ability at identifying/evaluating pitchers, however, for an MLB GM he appears to be horrifyingly incompetent at identifyin/evaluating hitters/position players.
IOW, he may have a positive role to play fro an MLB organization, but not as a GM.
* Improvement in his peripherals in 2007 was limited to walk rate and homer rate, and they were not "huge" improvements. I don't have it handy but I suspect his "strand rate" was pretty high. He pitched better in 2007 than he had before but I think a 128 ERA+ overstated that improvement...
Thanks,
Jim
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