The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist. This is just sad all over.

Corey Koskie and Kory Casto on Gordon's comps -- c'mon, you rigged that. :-) (I'd never actually heard of Casto)

having Larry Sutton as a comp is probably not gonna help Kila Kaaihue's career

(I'd never actually heard of Casto)

Shame on you

AAAA 3B/DH, a few years ago two guys in my Roto league actually fought over him- thinking he'd be a big deal...

Hit .290/.394/.510 in the Carolina League one year, .272/.379/.468 in the Eastern League...

The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist. This is just sad all over.
It's a shame that Buck O'Neil passed on.

having Larry Sutton as a comp is probably not gonna help Kila Kaaihue's career
I had forgotten about Sutton. I always thought of him as the 90s Tommy Hutton but on lookup, I insult the mediocre Hutton by equating him with Sutton.

I like Hulett (the in-house youneverknow MI infield option the Royals should have used instead of getting YB) - but am not sure why your estimates of his range are that rosy. Minor quibble.

Looking at that roster just makes me sad. It's like it's written in the blood of dead puppies.

How would you tell it was from puppies?

Homeless people, Dan. People.

Bannister and Oil Can Boyd as comps? Obviously basic intelligence wasn't a factor :)

I'm sure the Royals are hoping that Duffy turns into Danny Jackson, but I suspect he'll be more like the other two comps.

-- MWE

I know the list of three comps doesn't really mean all that much... but Greinke's list is really, really nice.

The burning issue is the comp for PenaBrayan is Hal Smith, but which Hal Smith?

BTW one was a World Series, the other not, but other than that completely interchangeable.

So Dayton Moore has been GM for 3+ years...
This will be his 4th off-season...

So if in 2010 the Royals go 67-95. does he stay? (5 year extension sez yes)...

The Moore era Royals look a lot like the DL lead Pirates to me.

If Greinke hadn't gone all Koufax this team would have lost 100.

Who knew that Brandon Duckworth was older than Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen?

Now that I notice it, that Greinke career projection seems a bit optimistic. To project a guy to throw more innings than Mussina? Granted, he's got a 210 IP lead through age 25. (This is not to question that Greinke has a good chance to be as good as Mussina or better, it's just the injury risk, etc. makes me think that's an optimistic mean projection.)

Back to Bloomquist and the homeless ... That seems to have been who was on KC's AAA roster. Look at that list. After DeJesus, Guillen and the injured Crisp, the next OF listed is Mitch Maier (to whom the Royals did give reasonable playing time). They also gave time to Josh Anderson after they picked him up. Anyway, after Maier you get a guy named Jordan Parraz then Bloomquist. Parraz seems to have been hurt for part of the year (I don't know which part) but did tear up AA. ZiPS defensive chart suggests the Royals could have trotted Pena or Thorman out in RF before Bloomquist.

I come not to defend the notion of Bloomquist in RF which is clearly counter to everything that is right and holy. Just pointing out how putrid this roster is that it has neither some kid who might have been worth a shot nor a Garrett Jones type anywhere to be found.

Are the players supposed to be in order by OPS+? Because they're not. Especially with Cory Aldridge's 80 OPS+ all the way at the bottom, below all the numbers in the 60s.

The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist.

They absolutely should have taken a flyer on Jordan Parraz in right field. Yeah, he was hurt a bit, out for some time in June, then missed all of August, but who's to say whether he gets hurt if he's with the major league team instead of AA and AAA?

Dan, why are you projecting Ponson when he was given his outright release in July after he refused AAA assignment?

Crispix on Aldridge: Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 (see above)... Cory's is brought down by that terrible OBP.
Ponson: What team should he be projected with? 'Cause he's likely to end up somewhere...

What team should he be projected with? 'Cause he's likely to end up somewhere...

The Japan Whatevers.

Bill Simmons once labeled David Lee, playing for an awful and unsightly Knicks' team, "a rose growing in ####." I think that pretty much sums up Zack Greinke's situation right now.

Players are listed with their most recent teams

Duh. Guess I could read better, huh?

Four players with OPS+ or ERA+ over 100. Four.

Is this a record for ZiPS? Hell, is this a record for any projection system?

Is this a record for ZiPS? Hell, is this a record for any projection system?

I'd hope so

With the Royals need for a right fielder and Moore's Braves connection, I know just the guy they should be trying to acquire.

Crispix on Aldridge: Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 (see above)... Cory's is brought down by that terrible OBP.

Which I will boldly predict has a typo somewhere along the line, since 2 walks is a completely implausible projection and his slashline doesn't actuually appear to equal an 80 ops+ (compared with betancourt and moustakas ) which it would with a sensible number of walks.

Dan, I'm A Mets fan, and even as a Mets fan I have to say that #26 is... evil, pure evil.

edit: Though I do think that at least trying to shoplift Gordon is something the Mutts should be doing.

First of all, it's funny that Blyleven is Greinke's top comp, then his career line looks like a "he should be in the HOF but the record doesn't get it done" standard for 25 years from now. Who knows, maybe 235 will look better by then.

Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.

Wouldn't the Royals kill to get a 96+ OPS out of Guillen next year?

How much of a role does past ERA play in the pitching projections? I ask because of Hochevar... he's dramatically underperformed his components for two years running, and it looks like ZiPS sees more of the same. I'm surprised that the bad situational performance isn't being more heavily regressed.

Healthy feral cats are better options in a corner outfield spot than Willie Bloomquist - I don't think many have ".332 career slugging percentage" on their resumés.

This is true. I found one in my backyard and he's given me a .407 SLG in APBA.

Well, at least the projections for Johnny Giovatella and Mike Montgomery look nice.

Gil Meche is about to become an albatross, isn't he?

Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.

Dayton cannot let a player go unless he feels like he gets awesome value for him. Supposedly he shopped Teahen around last winter and when the only offers were for guys like Mike Fontenot and Ben Francisco, he said no. I've read rumors he asks for way too much for his own players. He seems to have a serious delusion about the value of players on the market if he gives up Dan Cortes AND Derrick Saito for a shortstop many thought would be DFAed.

This is also why Jose Guillen will never ever be released and why Mike Jacobs will probably be tendered a contract.

I'm in favor of feeding Wylie Dufresne through a Play-Doh Fun Factory, on the spaghetti setting or any other, for what it's worth.

"Supposedly he shopped Teahen around last winter and when the only offers were for guys like Mike Fontenot and Ben Francisco, he said no. I've read rumors he asks for way too much for his own players."

Another thing he has in common with Littlefield.

What a stark preview. Nobody projected to hit .300, nobody projected to get on base higher than .360, nobody expected to slug .500 in any amount of playing time. Not only is there but one really good player (Greinke, of course, although I guess Soria should count for something) there's not anyone else above average. The worst of it is there isn't really anyone you can even bet on to be average.

In a best case scenario, they still can't aspire to mediocrity.

He seems to have a serious delusion about the value of players on the market if he gives up Dan Cortes AND Derrick Saito for a shortstop many thought would be DFAed.

I've often thought the same thing about Kenny Williams. The difference is that Kenny Williams identifies the talent he wants and goes and gets it, be it Jake Peavy, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Nick Swisher, etc. I suppose outbidding the market works when you're getting good talent in return for prospects.

Moore's problem isn't that he gave up talent for Betancourt, it's that he acquired Betancourt at all.

Moore's problem isn't that he gave up talent for Betancourt, it's that he acquired Betancourt at all.

I remember when Moore's predecessor acquired the Neifinator, and someone wrote that it was "evidence that he was actively blowing the talent evaluation aspect of his job"

Remember when Moore came in, and everyone assumed he'd be an improvement, he was "well regarded" and came from the Braves' system? Then he wildly overpaid for Gil Meche (or so it seemed)
and then Meche pulled a 128 ERA+ out of his ass* (and followed up with a 107).
And people said hey, he knows his stuff, he can see what is not readily apparent....

Meche is just one data point
Betancourt is another...

I think that Moore does seem to have some ability at identifying/evaluating pitchers, however, for an MLB GM he appears to be horrifyingly incompetent at identifyin/evaluating hitters/position players.

IOW, he may have a positive role to play fro an MLB organization, but not as a GM.

* Improvement in his peripherals in 2007 was limited to walk rate and homer rate, and they were not "huge" improvements. I don't have it handy but I suspect his "strand rate" was pretty high. He pitched better in 2007 than he had before but I think a 128 ERA+ overstated that improvement...

Hey Dan, why no projection for David Lough? He's certainly more advanced (and better) than some of the guys listed, Derrick Robinson in particular.

Thanks,
Jim

What about Shane Costa? Is he coming back...is it possible to get a projection for him?

Hey Dan, now that there is rumbling that Farnsworth will be given a crack at the starting rotation, will he get a SP rating?

Hey Dan, is there a projection floating out there for Rick Ankiel, I didn't see your normal projection with a signing article for him

Thanks for the work,
Rick