Bobby Abreu's career line there is a lot closer to the HOF than his actual voting is going to be.

Those Jepsen numbers can't be correct can they? I know his ERA has been 4.86 in his two years in the majors, but his FIP has been 2.86 because of his high BABIP (360 career). His walks seem really out of whack. Career 3.29 per 9 in the majors, but it was around 5.5 in the minors. Just by eyeballing it, I would say it looks to be over 6 per 9 on the Zips.

Abreu and Matsui seem to be missing in the ODDIBE tables.

And Dan, will you ever stop being mean to Brandon Wood? :-)

Jepsen's projection is correct.

Ugh, Dan. You just killed my DMB offseason lol.

If Wood's performance leads to the conclusion that Figgins is significantly better than he- Izturis will become the everyday third baseman. The difference between Izturis and Figgins is very small.

I'd also feel real comfortable betting the over on Jepsen for next year. After developing the cutter/slider mid-year, he was very effective in the second half, even while fighting some arm problems. If he's fully healthy, I suspect he's a good bullpen arm and puts up some nice numbers.

In any case Mr. Szymborski, your obvious anti-Angel bias not withstanding, thanks for the effort.

I think the starting rotation does better than Zips says they will.

That's a pretty nice projection for Hunter, except for the games played.

I don't understand how Weaver gets that weak of a projection at all..I don't remember the ERA+ projection last year (I assume it was around 115-120?)..but still.



His career ERA+ is a 121 and his FIP has never went above 4.06. Is there something that can explain what ZiPs sees here to cause this? Is it cause you take out his big rookie year? Wouldn't it be logical to keep that in there for a young player who should be improving at this age, in order to get a more believable projection....or do we expect that he goes backward toward 2008, in which his FIP allowed for a better projection last year.

Aside from him, nobody really stands out. I expect Kazmir to top that projection, if he is/stays healthy, and maybe Fuentes. I like the over on Morales and Rivera, and maybe even Macier, but they all look in line with expectations.

Okay. Now that all the teams are out. Do we have a potential date for the first draft disk?

On a side not, I almost traded for Kendry Morales a couple of days ago, now Im glad I didnt. I figured he would be between a 120 and 125 OPS+ guy.

Ugh, Dan. You just killed my DMB offseason lol.

lance cormier, blaine boyer, or mike koplove could be made available, if you'd like.

I'd take the under on the Angels.

The major problem the Angels could face is injuries. While you can say that for most teams, the Angels don't have a lot of spare talent at AAA - their #6 starter, unless I've missed a NRI, is going to be ugly and their 3 best hitters by ZiPS are in their mid-30s.

Exactly, the outfielders are either well into their thirties, or unlikely to be much use. There is age in the pen. Without depth to fill in the gaps, I see this team struggling to get near 90 wins.

Sure, there is a decent upside here if everything breaks right. If the older starters can stay healthy, and someone from Morales/Kendrick/Weaver/Santana becomes a legit all-star, then they might be quite good.

To use BPro's terminology, there is a much higher collapse rate than breakout rate. I'd be pessimistic.

Yeah, ZiPS sees Weaver's upside as less every year he doesn't achieve it.

Last year, ZiPS nailed his 3.75 ERA and K rate, and looked good on his Hits/9 and HR/9. So, he doesn't achieve his upside, but meets expectations, and then loses all that upside? Basically, his projection was doomed unless he put up another 178 ERA+, and that seems asking a bit much.

Weaver's also been kind of lucky with his homers allowed - his xFIPs are significantly higher.

That would make sense...but his xFIPs have always been higher, and it never pushed his projection like this. Why does it catch up with him now?

Not that I expect him to put up Ace numbers(and his park doesn't help), just trying to understand ZiPS a little more I guess. Weaver is one of those guys I've followed since his initial call-up and Fantasy impact and he was even one one guys I went for first in the DMB league...so there's probably a few years of biased interest here.

If Jason Bulger is projected to be your best reliever, I believe we've identified a "serious hole"

the Angels are likely to be worse defensively at every position than SS compared to 2007-2009

Yeah, that was one of the things that surprised me looking at the projections. Although, really, the only change from last year is Wood at 3B ... and another year of age for the OF.

But ...

ZiPS was dinging Weaver before, it just saw greater upside in recent years

Shouldn't that show up in the variance, not (necessarily) the mean projection?

I wasn't even thinking about the defense, as it looks pretty much the same as last year doesn't it (In reality, not ZiPS, which included Texy last year)? Average in most spots, and then Abreu in the OF, unless Wood is expected to grab the 3b job, but that looks like it'd be a bad idea from any angle.

I appreciate the replies!

Could you post Escobar's quick projection with the Mets since he was one of those after-the-new-team-before-the-old-team transactions?

Well, I think they need Morales to go ape #### again if they want to win the division.

Macier Izturis is a pretty underrated player, no? .340 OBA, decent pop for a middle infielder, solid defense, can play all over the infield. I think he cost himself signing that three year $10 million contract extension. Perhaps everyone thinks he is worse than he really is because of his brother?

Jack Cust has the highest projected OPS+ in the division.

Jack Cust has the highest projected OPS+ in the division.

That is brutally awesome and awesomely brutal.

What's striking to me is how much ZiPS likes Kazmir. Even with a somewhat lacking defense behind him. I suppose his skill set is the least harmed by that defense, but still...

Im bullish on him as well, and was sort of surprised by how mediocre the projection systems have had him so far. Though actually, PECOTA first loved him, then seemingly didn't like him... now I have no clue, but its still beta anyway.

Nice work Dan! I'd love to see projections for Robb Quinlan just re-signed last week. Also, former Twins prospect Michael Ryan could figure into back-up OF spot as a non-roster invite. Other non-roster invites that could see time in Anaheim this summer would be Nate Sutton, Gary Patchett, and Andrew Romine. That being said, thanks for all you continue to bring to the baseball community. I look forward to DMB version.

I don't know what I fear least, the offense, defense, starting pitching, or relief pitching.
Of course now that I've said that they'll win 97 games and run away with the division...

I'll take the under on those ERAs from Santana and Saunders. Santana was hurt early, Saunders during the middle of the season, but both finished strong. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them both repeat 2008 again.

Wait, why are we supposed to believe that the Angels won't win the division again? I'm not much of a homer, but Jack Cust and Franklin Gutierrez are likely hitting clean-up for Oakland and Seattle this year. Figgins and Kotchman are two of my all-time favorites, but they are not difference-makers. Cliff Lee is a very good pitcher and all, but the heart of the Seattle order is not exactly striking Jim Rice Fear into anyone in 2010. Texas, once again, has a ton of power in the line-up but question marks all over the starting pitching. The more things change, the more than meets the eye or however that ol' children's tale from the sea goes.

Dan, when do you think the Excel spreadsheet with all of the projections will be available? Thanks.

Texas, once again, has a ton of power in the line-up but question marks all over the starting pitching

one of those question marks is NOT scott FELDMAN! seeing as he went from 6-8 5.29/1.43 to 17-8 4.08/1.28 i'm going out on a limb that he'll continue on to 28-8 2.87/1.13 =D

'm going out on a limb that he'll continue on to 28-8 2.87/1.13 =D

There's a downside to this - in 2-3 years, he'd actually break baseball!

Except for his second year, Weaver's HR/FB has been essentially identical every season he's been in the majors, and ditto for is IF/FB. Anything can happen in one year, but I'm not sold on his HR/FB being a fluke.