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Also, I'm glad ZiPS thinks every starter on the team can hit.
As for Alvarado, it's hardly his fault he's never gotten a chance and he certainly deserves one now. Pitching like he did in Albuquerque is amazing. He essentially was pitching in a context of near-major league difficulty the last 2 years.
Other than that, though, I'd love to see the like, last 5 teams or whatever's left.
A) Was that really a "great" year?
B) 2009 isn't what made Weaver get a crappy projection. Him being crappy from 2005-2008 got him a crappy projection
Sure he can. Give them 50 appearance each before the All-Star game, which is possible with the lack of SP depth, and watch them disintegrate in Sept.
I mean, I totally "get it" I just wish it wasn't that way.
66
90
89
N/A
104
Weaver's
97
78
71
N/A
108
As far as I can tell they both were pretty bad, missed 2008, and were useful in 2009. The difference is Milton wasn't AS bad in 2006-2007 (which I imagine is why he projects better). Of course Weaver was healthier.
EDIT: Weaver's 2007 is pretty impressive. Has anyone tied for the lead league in shutouts while sporting a 71 ERA+? That kind of seems impossible.
I sort of agree with the overall sentiment of this statement, but it seems to me like you went out of your way to avoid giving Colletti any kind of credit at all, even if his contribution was small. Don't get me wrong, a lot of his early moves were horrible, but I think he has improved over time.
Orlando Hudson is not going to be a Dodger.
Has Russell Martin turned into a latter day Jason Kendall overnight ?
And Casey Blake is 36, and could very well be in store for a somewhat steeper dropoff than a weighted projection system with aging curves can provide. He had a pretty deep 3 month trough in his production in June-July-August last year, and though he hit well when he played in September to bring his numbers back up some, he also missed half the month with a hamstring injury.
The front 3 starters in their rotation are really good pitchers, and of course Kershaw could be "The One". BUT....he has yet to reach the innings totals required of an ace, and until he does, you just don't know how he is going to navigate the injury nexus years. Of course the Dodger offseason is not over, and prices are dropping. A good innings eater is still required here.
At the end of the day, my gut tells me their offense will be at least somewhat worse than projected, but their pitching will be as strong or stronger than projected. Like I said in the opening line they are still the team to beat in the West, no doubt, but don't be surprised if the shape of their run differential changes.
Anyway, I had to look it up. Here are the leaders:
1. Hank Aaron+ 2297 R
2. Babe Ruth+ 2217 L
3. Cap Anson+ 2076 R
4. Barry Bonds 1996 L
5. Lou Gehrig+ 1995 L
6. Stan Musial+ 1951 L
7. Ty Cobb+ 1937 L
8. Jimmie Foxx+ 1922 R
9. Eddie Murray+ 1917 B
10. Willie Mays+ 1903 R
11. Mel Ott+ 1860 L
12. Carl Yastrzemski+ 1844 L
13. Ted Williams+ 1839 L
14. Rafael Palmeiro 1835 L
15. Dave Winfield+ 1833 R
16. Ken Griffey (39) 1829 L
17. Al Simmons+ 1827 R
18. Frank Robinson+ 1812 R
19. Manny Ramirez (37) 1788 R
20. Honus Wagner+ 1732 R
21. Alex Rodriguez (33) 1706 R
22. Frank Thomas 1704 R
23. Reggie Jackson+ 1702 L
24. Cal Ripken+ 1695 R
25. Gary Sheffield (40) 1676
2139 would place him 3rd behind Aaron and Ruth although Arod is only 82 behind. Again, there's been a lot of talk about ARod breaking the HR record, but I haven't heard any speculation about the RBI record.
ZiPS has already done the Yankees. Let's see... nope, 2207. Choker...
Weaver didn't actually miss 2008--he had a 6.17 ERA at AAA. That probably doesn't help his projection any.
Holy cow. I thought he retired after his season with the Yankees.
Amazing the things you miss.
Is 189 the highest ERA+ ever projected by zips? Damn...
Yeah, I have his 2008 translation as 3-7, 7.60, 79.1 IP, 109 H, 21 HR, 35 BB, 42 K combined for Nashville and Buffalo.
So Weaver just wishes he missed 2008
Don't quite understand the paragraph leading into the projections. Ned has more to do with the current makeup of this team then any of the previous general managers and it is not close. This is not 2006 when these comments could be taken seriously. This is Ned's team through and through.
The main thing Colletti actually did that was create and prescient was picking up Ethier for Bradley. How much credit should he be given, though? He tried his best to acquire players to take away Ethier's job until Ethier forced him to reconsider. If Colletti actually knew what he had in Ethier, he doesn't throw $40 million at Jones so that Pierre can start in left.
The organizational structure and most importantly, Logan White, who has had a very free hand in the draft and the minor league system, were put in place by Evans. DePodesta didn't really try to change those things.
I'm sorry, but Ned Colletti's primary skill with the Dodgers has been having an owner that was willing to subsidize his expensive mistakes. Let's put it this way - the Giants are coming out of Zito's signing with infinitely better results than the Dodgers did with Schmidt/Jones/Pierre.
. This is Ned's team through and through.
So, Kemp, Loney, Martin, Billingsley, and Broxton (among others) aren't the main part of the Dodgers long-term core? I wouldn't give Colletti credit for Kershaw, either - as noted, White's position with the Dodgers is not analogous to similar positions in other organizations; Colletti never even got to make the choice to have or not have White.
Is this sarcasm ?
The story at the time was that he just wanted to get rid of Bradley, never heard of Ethier, but one of the Dodger's scouts told him to ask the A's for him.
Not unless the BBWAA finally understands the difference between a CF and a corner OF... and maybe not even then.
I think I may have heard something like that story going around, but I'm not sure what to make of it (I don't talk with anyone that worked for either organization at the time).
I'll give Colletti the credit, however, since I'm pretty sure that he executed that trade, as that area's part of his fiefdom. I just won't give credit for Colletti knowing what he had in Ethier given his later behavior.
I'll turn the question around.
What aspect of running a major league organization has Colletti shown himself to be one of the better GMs in the league? This isn't a stathead v. non-stathead thing either - Logan White certainly isn't a saber nut.
With that said, and noting that it's unusually easy to say who the Dodger everyday starting 8 will be - who's going to be the bench? In particular, who is the 4th outfielder? Given Ramirez's age (and note that ZiPS only has him at 128 games), 4th outfielder could be a pretty important position.
The 4th Outfielder right now would probably be Jason Repko, with Xavier Paul in Triple-A waiting to be called up. They both can play CF as well as corners, so it shouldn't be that much of a problem unless Manny suffers a trip to the DL. They signed Jamey Carroll to be a platoon 2nd base and UI guy, and Nick Green on a NRI to be the back up 3B/SS/2B as well. Brad Ausmus might be back as the back up catcher, and if not career minor leaguer A.J. Ellis will probably be it.
Bullpen is pretty much set with Broxton, Sherrill, Kuo, Belisario, Troncoso, and one of McDonald, or Elbert. With the winner gaining the 5th spot in the rotation.
which is...?
Kershaw is projected to be worse in h/9, k/9 and hr/9 than last year. He's projected to be better in bb/9. Not sure what the problem is - when a 21 yo has an excellent year, my gut says he shouldn't be projected middle of the pack the next season.
Well it came from Placshke, first of all...in the classic "The old scout sits at the end of the table" column
i think there are several disadvantages for him going into 2010 that aren't (and shouldn't, and probably can't be) taken into account in the ZiPS projections. the short leash he had in 2009 meant that he faced hitters while he was fresher, while his stuff was sharper, but it also meant that hitters didn't have a chance to adjust to him as the game went on, and his ERA is warped by that. hell, his minor league numbers are warped by it as well.
he had the benefit of a greatly reduced workload last year (and so long as we're talking about colletti's aptitude as a GM, this would seem to be a point in his favor), but that's gotta ramp up a bit this year, doesn't it? and when it does, he's gonna regress. maybe he just goes from the 2.79 ERA he had last year to the 3.06 ZiPS projects him at this year, but when he takes on a full workload, i'd bet he's a lot closer to 4 than he is to 3.
Alternate question: Does 1946 ZIPS project Ted Williams to play in 0 games? How does that work?
No, the 1946 edition of ZiPS projected that Ted Williams would play 142 games for the Yomiuri Giants. Luckily, Dan has refined the algorithm since then.
Actually, what you're looking at is an Albuquerque phenomenon. Pitching in Albuquerque against AAA hitters is almost as hard as pitching against MLB pitchers, simply due to the extreme nature of the park.
Here are the weighted 3 year park factors (not the multipliers) for Isotopes Park:
Runs: 140
Hits (all types): 122
Doubles: 112
Home Runs: 142
Walks: 92
Strikeouts: 84
Isotopes Park has the largest effect on run scoring, by far, of any professional stadium. It inflates all hits by twice the magnitude of all but 3 parks.
That Alvarado's hits are projected to go down in LA is due to the drastic change in stadiums, the likes of which you don't see in any other promotion situation.
Conversely, one should continue to be <B>very</I> suspicious of Dodger AAA hitters unless they tear the league apart. Ashley's .884 and 1.129 OPSs in Albuquerque didn't become .699 and .853 by chance.
With Manny, of course, the underlying question is projection of the late career aging curves of great ballplayers. There aren't a lot of comparables, and it's not entirely clear what to make of the Barry Bonds comparison. :)
BA named Ethier the Texas League MVP and put him on their top 100 prospects list. He wasn't some unknown prospect.
What type of progress have you made on the hitters? I'm just trying to get a general idea of how quick we can expect to see the last 10 teams or so? You generally put a team out every 5-10 days it seems but, if you have the majority of the pitchers done, will that pace pick up at all?
Thanks.
Haha
Will he even put those numbers up in Japan if he does indeed go there?
Well, that projection would still be his second-lowest OPS since 1994.
That is interesting, since I believe that is the highest OPS+ given out so far to any offensive player. I could be wrong but I think Mauer was the highest until Manny with around 148. Of course he has significantly more value being an above average C versus a below average LF but it still shows very little, if any, regression in my opinion. More surprising than the lack of regression is his projection in comparison with the rest of the league so far.
A situation such as this is very fluid, though. You can't just automatically downgrade the park effects, especially for an environment as extreme as Albuquerque, because it doesn't feel right to you that they more than compensate for the level of play.
I think there is plenty to suggest Manny will begin to regress and that isn't even the biggest surprise. As I said, the biggest surprise is ZiPS is projecting Manny to have the best bat in all of MLB so far with only 9 teams to go (Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, and Diamondbacks). I imagine Pujols' projection will surpass Manny's, Fielder perhaps, Berkman maybe...will anyone else? Do you really think he will have the 2nd or 3rd best bat in all of baseball next season at age 39?
People complain when ZiPS doesn't heavily weigh a player's breakout year, yet here's you're arguing that we should heavily weigh the slump to such a point that Manny's projection should sharply trend downwards.
Chone's Manny projection = .885 OPS
Marcel's Manny projection = .897 OPS
James' Manny projection = .943 OPS
ZiPS' Manny projection = .943 OPS
Heck, ZiPS is as optimistic about Manny as Bill James whose projections are widely regarded as overly optimistic in many cases by almost everyone. :D Once again, for the last time, it isn't the lack of regression so much as his projection side by side with the rest of baseball.
Answer the question, will Manny be the 2nd best hitter in all of baseball next year? A simple yes or no will suffice, it seems ZiPS says he will be based on the way things currently stand.
Its a projection system, not the gospel.
I don't know if he is the 2nd best hitter in baseball next year, but I'm not worrying about it.
Thanks for avoiding the question again, I'm going to take that as a no you do not believe Manny will be the 2nd best hitter in all of baseball next year. If that is true, then wouldn't it also be true that ZiPS is being optimistic about him or at the very least too conservative on the other hitters who are more likely to put up better seasons than Manny?
Edit: And to all of those people who wrote me off because I happened to own Zobrist in a sim league, I also own Manny in that very same league. My arguments have nothing to do with owning either of them, it just seems wrong on both players.
I didn't avoid your question, I answered truthfully. I have no idea if Manny is the 2nd best hitter next year. He could be, he can be. I just don't know if he is.
This is Manny Ramirez. People have called him a hitting savant. Hitting is his Raison d'être. And you're questioning if he can reach an OPS that he has surpassed since 1994, save for one season?
Edit: In this very thread there are numerous people wondering if ZiPS is being too optimistic on the Dodgers as a team. Dave Cameron said that if ZiPS is right, the Dodgers project as a 100 win team. And you're stated that everyone treats ZiPS is never wrong?
I'd be curious what each team's projected win total is, that may be a better indication than just the Dodgers' win total by itself.
Like everyone else I disagree on, we will just see how things work out during the season but I'll be very surprised if Manny at age 39 is the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in all of baseball.
if runzler's projection was on the mark, i don't know how in the hell miller and zerpa's could also be.
-- MWE
Wade was better than Cruz last year and about equal in 2008 (peripheral ERAs are more useful for relievers in an individual season than starters because of the sample sizes). Rather than bouncing back, Cruz's walk rate got even worse and his K rate lost 6 per 9. That ain't a typo.
Also, you're looking at the wrong Justin Miller. The Justin Miller that never pitched above A-ball isn't going to be 32 years old in 2010.
cruz had 12 Ks per 9 IP in both 2007 and 2008. he sucked last year, but considering that so did wade, and considering that cruz had a longer, better track record prior to that, i'm not seeing an 11 point gap in ERA+. if octavio dotel can still be active and effective at 35, i think it's a little early and a little drastic for a system to throw cruz on the scrap heap just yet. but that's not what i'm looking at.
i also see (in my opinion, as someone who's followed ZiPS projections for about 4 years) wildly optimistic projections for kershaw, billingsley, kuroda, lindblom, and alverado, and something just seems a bit off.
i look at daniel hudson, on the white sox, and i can't imagine how lindblom gets rated so much higher according to ERA+. i think hudson's projection passes the smell test, but lindblom's again seems more optimistic than any projection i've seen of a guy who doesn't have a track record of MLB success.
along the same lines, i'm kind of interested in seeing tommy hanson's ZiPS. if kershaw gets a 137 ERA+, hanson's gotta be right there, right?
anyway, after this, if you say it's nothing to worry about, i'll let it go (as if that's the end game), but it's not just one of these that looks off.
Hanson's gonna be pretty high. I think both of them were in the top 10 ERA list I sent off for ESPN Mag a few weeks ago.
Cruz's FIP was surprisingly disappointing in 2008, too. He's losing the ability to keep the walks under control.
No, probably not. But that's not the end of the story. List all of the players besides Pujols and ask me, one by one, if I think that they're going to be better than Manny? The answer to all of those questions is also: no, probably not. And there's no contradiction here. There's no particular player (save Pujols) who is likely to be better than Manny, but it is likely that someone or other will be better than he is.
Think about it this way: get a coin that is slightly weighted, so that it lands heads 51% of the time. For any given flip it's probably going to land heads. Now, see how many flips it takes for it to land tails. It won't be very many.
Welcome to Tricky Rhetorical Devices 101.
Sorry to quote myself. I wrote that a week ago. Since then Pineiro and Davis have signed elsewhere. Remaining options for an innings eater role are basically Garland and perhaps Washburn or Padilla. Were the Dodgers one of the teams watching Sheets throw ? Have they shown interest in Bedard ? I can't imagine them going high risk at this point. I wonder if they are just going to stand pat with the guys they have to fill out the rotation. Interesting. Dodger Divorce indeed.
Dodgers don't seem to have enough money to afford Garland.
My guess is Garland is asking for a Pineiro/Marquis deal.
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