User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 2.1420 seconds
49 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, January 31, 2010
2010 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers
While the offense finished 3rd in the league in runs, the starting rotation doomed the 2009 rotation. Gallardo came back and pitched very well in his first full major league season, Parra took a step backwards with his command and the Suppan/Looper/Bush troika, expected to be uninspiring but adequate, all cratered to one degree or another. Looper's gone, replaced with the superior Randy Wolf. Bush should be better after underperforming his peripherals in 2009 but the team still has another year of Jeff Suppan at $12.5 million to go. The team will miss Mike Cameron, but Carlos Gomez, whil an awful offensive player, is even better defensively than Cameron and Escobar should be one of the best defensive shortstop in the league and contribute more offensively than some people believe. Off-hand, I'd expect the Brewers to finish 3rd-7th in runs scored and 10th-14th in runs allowed, which makes them a middle-of-the-pack team. Since they don't play in either of the East divisions, the team's a realistic contender for the division, assuming that the Cubs Cub things up.Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Prince Fielder* 1b 26 .277 .383 .552 160 582 101 161 33 2 41 142 94 139 2 1 145 Ryan Braun lf 26 .295 .359 .554 154 610 109 180 38 6 36 132 54 131 9 3 138 Rickie Weeks 2b 27 .240 .345 .419 90 334 66 80 16 4 12 43 44 89 9 2 103 Corey Hart rf 28 .263 .323 .453 137 501 76 132 31 5 18 86 39 105 8 4 104 Jody Gerut* cf 32 .267 .321 .443 115 307 45 82 17 2 11 48 25 50 3 2 101 Jim Edmonds* cf 40 .225 .327 .422 71 218 31 49 11 1 10 37 33 56 1 1 98 Gregg Zaun# c 39 .243 .345 .373 94 276 29 67 15 0 7 26 42 45 1 1 92 Felipe Lopez# 2b 30 .266 .340 .377 143 546 69 145 28 3 9 55 60 99 10 6 91 Adam Heether 3b 28 .243 .331 .376 127 444 58 108 25 2 10 61 52 103 3 2 88 Jonathan Lucroy c 24 .245 .326 .378 136 490 59 120 28 2 11 72 58 96 2 1 87 Casey McGehee 3b 27 .263 .316 .397 126 433 55 114 23 1 11 78 35 85 0 2 89 George Kottaras* c 27 .237 .320 .385 86 278 31 66 15 1 8 29 34 75 0 0 87 Joe Inglett* 2b 32 .273 .333 .375 98 341 39 93 16 5 3 38 28 51 6 4 89 Alcides Escobar ss 23 .279 .321 .378 146 588 91 164 27 5 7 63 34 95 25 7 84 Craig Counsell* 2b 39 .252 .337 .353 109 309 43 78 16 3 3 33 36 47 2 2 85 Angel Salome c 24 .262 .309 .387 92 336 40 88 19 1 7 57 23 62 1 0 84 Mat Gamel* 3b 24 .239 .312 .382 140 497 66 119 26 3 13 73 52 147 3 2 84 Joe Koshansky* 1b 28 .219 .304 .394 144 503 65 110 24 2 20 94 61 183 2 2 84 Carlos Gomez cf 24 .250 .308 .369 136 396 63 99 19 5 6 41 28 91 23 8 79 Caleb Gindl* rf 21 .229 .303 .362 130 481 58 110 22 3 12 68 51 148 8 3 76 Trent Oeltjen* lf 27 .243 .294 .380 130 453 58 110 22 8 8 52 25 90 10 5 78 Eric Farris 2b 24 .259 .298 .346 127 526 70 136 24 2 6 56 28 69 33 7 71 Logan Schafer* cf 23 .247 .302 .358 99 405 57 100 22 4 5 48 29 73 6 6 75 Hernan Iribarren* 2b 26 .255 .306 .338 124 447 51 114 20 4 3 48 32 86 10 8 72 Luis Cruz 2b 26 .253 .285 .361 119 415 52 105 25 1 6 45 17 49 4 4 71 Andy Machado# ss 29 .221 .310 .316 91 263 32 58 12 2 3 26 34 69 6 2 65 Matt Treanor c 34 .233 .306 .325 39 120 11 28 5 0 2 14 11 25 0 0 69 Brendan Katin rf 27 .211 .268 .383 128 454 55 96 24 3 16 83 29 164 1 1 71 Brett Lawrie 2b 20 .228 .290 .354 130 474 50 108 20 5 10 63 39 118 10 11 71 Lorenzo Cain cf 24 .226 .285 .325 101 385 44 87 19 2 5 39 28 101 7 4 62 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Fielder* Av/118 Braun Pr/152 Fr/57 Weeks Av/133 Hart Av/92 Gerut* Av/103 Fr/103 Av/103 Edmonds* Av/115 Zaun# Fr Lopez# Av/122 Fr/122 Pr/125 Av/150 Av/150 Heether Fr/104 Av/104 Fr/148 Av/104 Lucroy Vg McGehee Pr Av/105 Fr/146 Av/105 Kottaras* Fr Inglett* Av/121 Fr/100 Pr/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100 Counsell* Vg/55 Vg/70 Av/75 Salome Fr Gamel* Fr/146 Koshansky* Av/121 Escobar Vg/109 Gomez Vg/118 Ex/118 Vg/118 Gindl* Fr/123 Fr/123 Fr/123 Oeltjen* Vg/105 Pr/126 Vg/105 Farris Av/132 Schafer* Vg/84 Av/84 Vg/84 Iribarren* Av/103 Fr/103 Av/116 Fr/116 Cruz Av/118 Av/118 Av/118 Machado# Av/114 Av/114 Fr/114 Av/114 Treanor Fr Katin Fr/185 Fr/185 Lawrie Av/152 Cain Vg/123 Av/79 Vg/123 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 FielderPrince 1B 61% 29% 6% 3% 1% HrbekKent AikensWillie PowellBoog BraunRyan LF 61% 26% 7% 4% 2% MondesiRaul WhiteRondell HollidayMatt HartCorey RF 7% 18% 21% 27% 28% EncarnacionJuan ByrnesEric BrandtJackie WeeksRickie 2B 34% 23% 20% 16% 8% TylerBrad HeathKelly BellhornMark GerutJody CF 16% 18% 30% 24% 12% MayDave LandreauxKen UnserDel EdmondsJim CF 0% 12% 15% 20% 53% LopezFelipe 2B 9% 11% 17% 28% 35% RunnelsPete AdamsBobby OesterRon McGeheeCasey 3B 1% 6% 13% 27% 52% DavenportJim BrooksHubie KingBrennan EscobarAlcides SS 6% 14% 31% 31% 18% FrancoJulio FonvilleChad JeterDerek HeetherAdam 3B 2% 7% 16% 29% 47% EdwardsMike NaehringTim GonzalezEdgar SalomeAngel C 3% 14% 25% 37% 21% TorrealbaYorvit GilGeronimo BentonButch LucroyJonathan C 3% 14% 25% 37% 21% TurnerChris ThigpenCurtis AvlasPhil CounsellCraig 2B 4% 6% 13% 28% 49% VizquelOmarMaranvilleRabbit McLemoreMark GamelMat 3B 1% 4% 10% 24% 62% TeahenMark BetemitWilson HulettTim FarrisEric 2B 2% 4% 9% 24% 60% LoviglioJayBloomquistWillie DortaMelvin KoshanskyJoe 1B 0% 1% 3% 17% 78% TracyAndyWhittemoreReggie de la RosaTomas OeltjenTrent LF 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% VarshoGary ChapmanNate MartinezManny GindlCaleb RF 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% ReidJessie DarrMike NanniTito SchaferLogan LF 0% 0% 2% 12% 86% WynneMarvell WebsterAnthony McRaeBrian IribarrenHernan 2B 0% 1% 1% 5% 92% MorandiniMickey MartinezTed GuerreroWilton KatinBrendan RF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% DunnTodd IngramDarron SherrodJustin LawrieBrett 2B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% CastilloJose BenefieldBrian DeanChris CainLorenzo CF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% BlasiNick BufordDamon ShanksJames Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB FielderPrince 20% 59% 81% 56% 10% 0% 91% 0% BraunRyan 43% 28% 79% 42% 21% 15% 71% 0% HartCorey 9% 3% 15% 3% 4% 7% 5% 0% WeeksRickie 2% 14% 7% 2% 0% 3% 0% 0% GerutJody 15% 6% 14% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% EdmondsJim 2% 7% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LopezFelipe 10% 10% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% McGeheeCasey 9% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EscobarAlcides 11% 1% 0% 0% 1% 7% 0% 27% HeetherAdam 2% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SalomeAngel 11% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LucroyJonathan 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% CounsellCraig 9% 16% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% GamelMat 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% FarrisEric 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 72% KoshanskyJoe 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% OeltjenTrent 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 0% 0% GindlCaleb 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SchaferLogan 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% IribarrenHernan 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% KatinBrendan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% LawrieBrett 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% CainLorenzo 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Yovani Gallardo 24 3.51 13 7 26 25 153.2 133 60 15 69 163 127 Randy Wolf* 33 4.05 10 8 29 29 173.1 167 78 21 57 136 110 Doug Davis* 34 4.43 10 10 30 30 176.2 182 87 19 85 133 101 David Bush 30 4.64 8 9 28 27 153.1 161 79 22 46 107 96 Chris Narveson* 28 4.74 6 6 33 14 104.1 107 55 14 46 83 94 Christopher Cody* 26 4.75 9 9 24 23 127.0 137 67 17 44 78 94 Mike Burns 31 4.86 8 9 33 18 127.2 143 69 18 36 79 92 Braden Looper 35 5.02 10 12 32 32 181.0 205 101 29 56 99 89 Mark Rogers 24 5.11 2 2 21 16 68.2 69 39 8 47 55 87 Nick Green 25 5.13 7 9 26 24 142.0 162 81 22 41 79 87 Lindsay Gulin* 33 5.15 7 9 25 22 120.2 125 69 16 71 77 87 Manny Parra* 27 5.17 8 10 27 24 139.1 157 80 16 69 117 87 Tim Dillard 26 5.26 6 8 36 16 125.0 148 73 14 54 55 85 Jeff Suppan 35 5.33 8 12 30 30 170.2 206 101 24 68 86 84 Alexandre Periard 23 5.38 5 7 18 18 82.0 95 49 10 37 41 83 Sam Narron* 28 5.39 6 8 24 19 120.1 147 72 15 39 52 83 John Halama* 38 5.53 5 7 15 13 86.1 102 53 12 35 42 81 Chase Wright* 27 5.58 6 10 25 24 129.0 148 80 18 64 58 80 Cody Scarpetta 21 5.63 6 10 28 20 100.2 103 63 12 85 79 79 Josh Butler 25 5.64 5 8 23 22 103.2 118 65 13 59 60 79 Jeremy Jeffress 22 5.68 4 6 17 16 69.2 68 44 8 64 63 79 Chuck Lofgren* 24 5.80 6 10 27 22 111.2 126 72 17 62 74 77 Amaury Rivas 24 5.81 7 12 27 23 117.2 132 76 20 66 77 77 Chris Waters* 29 6.15 5 12 32 25 134.2 155 92 22 68 93 74 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Trevor Hoffman 42 3.14 4 2 53 0 48.2 42 17 4 13 44 142 Mark DiFelice 33 3.46 3 2 54 0 54.2 50 21 6 14 48 129 La Troy Hawkins 37 3.59 3 2 60 0 57.2 55 23 5 19 41 125 Mitch Stetter* 29 3.64 4 2 60 0 42.0 35 17 4 22 42 123 Zach Braddock* 22 4.24 3 2 32 0 34.0 28 16 4 22 40 106 Todd Coffey 29 4.25 4 3 75 0 78.1 81 37 9 25 63 105 David Weathers 40 4.26 5 4 66 0 63.1 62 30 7 27 42 105 David Riske 33 4.28 1 1 39 0 40.0 40 19 4 17 30 105 Carlos Villanueva 26 4.35 7 6 62 7 109.2 109 53 15 40 96 103 A.J. Murray* 28 4.38 4 3 37 4 63.2 64 31 5 30 43 102 Jesus Colome 32 4.39 3 2 49 0 55.1 56 27 6 23 46 102 Claudio Vargas 32 4.46 4 4 32 10 78.2 80 39 10 27 59 100 Seth McClung 29 4.54 4 4 46 5 83.1 80 42 10 47 67 99 Ryan Houston 30 4.94 3 4 43 0 51.0 53 28 6 27 38 90 Wes Littleton 27 4.98 3 3 49 0 65.0 66 36 7 38 47 90 John Axford 27 5.18 3 4 47 0 57.1 54 33 6 50 53 86 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 HoffmanTrevor RP 74% 23% 4% ReedRon WilhelmHoyt JonesDoug DiFeliceMark RP 55% 39% 7% ReardonJeff PeraltaJoel MadduxMike GallardoYovani SP 85% 14% 1% HardenRich MaloneyJim HudsonTim HawkinsLaTroy RP 44% 48% 8% LampDennis WilksTed PowerTed StetterMitch RP 46% 40% 14% RomeroJ.C. VilloneRon LittleJeff WolfRandy SP 51% 45% 4% NeagleDenny TananaFrank MoyerJamie CoffeyTodd RP 19% 59% 22% MeachamRusty CrewsTim AndersenLarry WeathersDave RP 34% 41% 25% BrocailDoug MesaJose WilhelmHoyt RiskeDavid RP 20% 44% 36% LancasterLes MurrayDale CrawfordSteve VillanuevaCarlos RP 11% 63% 26% WheelerDan HoytLa Marr NelsonGene MurrayArlington RP 20% 51% 29% AgostoJuan ThobeTom DunbarMatt ColomeJesus RP 14% 49% 38% YanEsteban MyersRodney BruskeJim VargasClaudio SP 14% 54% 32% NicholsRod BrockChris ManuelBarry McClungSeth RP 9% 51% 40% GermanFranklyn CookMike PisciottaMarc BushDavid SP 17% 61% 23% LimaJose BoydOil Can TomkoBrett NarvesonChris SP 3% 44% 53% RoqueRafael O'DonoghueJohn EyreScott CodyChristopher SP 16% 58% 26% UrbaniTom MathesAlfred PriestEddie BurnsMike SP 17% 50% 33% SweeneyBrian GinterMatt DriskillTravis HoustonRyan RP 7% 33% 60% CameronRyan GwynMarcus SolanoJulio LittletonWes RP 4% 41% 54% GilfillanJason GreenSean MayoBlake LooperBraden SP 8% 46% 46% GullicksonBill LazorkoJack KesterTim RogersMark SP 12% 37% 51% NewellTom DuncanCourtney BowenRyan GreenNick SP 5% 47% 49% MeadowsBrian TowersJosh WolcottBob GulinLindsay SP 6% 40% 53% EstesShawn ByrneTommy McClureBob ParraManny SP 5% 45% 49% RuffinBruce ClaussenBrandon HaywardRay AxfordJohn RP 3% 34% 62% KayeJustin BerumenAndres BarryKevin DillardTim SP 0% 19% 81% BonillaVicente PegueroTony CoulterDarrell SuppanJeff SP 3% 33% 64% SeleAaron FernandezJared JarvisKevin PeriardAlexandre SP 6% 36% 58% MoehlerBrian JosephJake DittlerJake NarronSam SP 4% 37% 60% BallardJeff ShouseBrian GuettermanLee HalamaJohn SP 5% 25% 70% MichalakChris FlanaganMike ReussJerry WrightChase SP 1% 22% 77% DreesTom RundlesRich BryantShawn ScarpettaCody SP 1% 21% 77% PerkinsVince DuncanCourtney HardwickWillie ButlerJosh SP 1% 23% 76% KirkreitDaron BuglovskyChris SodowskyClint JeffressJeremy SP 3% 26% 71% GomesWayne DuncanCourtney EricksJohn LofgrenChuck SP 1% 18% 82% MounceTony RootDerek ThomasBrad RivasAmaury SP 0% 14% 86% BourgeoisSteve BuglovskyChris ArdJohnny Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 HoffmanTrevor 66% 95% 54% 34% 72% DiFeliceMark 46% 91% 45% 38% 63% GallardoYovani 51% 95% 93% 0% 71% HawkinsLaTroy 44% 85% 7% 13% 70% StetterMitch 46% 81% 74% 0% 78% WolfRandy 15% 78% 12% 3% 41% CoffeyTodd 15% 68% 15% 5% 54% WeathersDave 29% 66% 5% 4% 65% RiskeDavid 20% 55% 14% 2% 54% VillanuevaCarlos 9% 61% 41% 1% 25% MurrayArlington 16% 58% 4% 0% 82% ColomeJesus 14% 55% 27% 1% 57% VargasClaudio 11% 57% 8% 3% 42% McClungSeth 7% 48% 17% 0% 48% BushDavid 2% 40% 1% 7% 22% NarvesonChris 2% 37% 15% 0% 35% CodyChristopher 2% 39% 0% 2% 35% BurnsMike 6% 35% 2% 18% 30% HoustonRyan 4% 33% 11% 0% 54% LittletonWes 4% 32% 4% 0% 57% LooperBraden 2% 22% 0% 5% 14% RogersMark 2% 25% 22% 0% 62% GreenNick 0% 18% 0% 12% 15% GulinLindsay 1% 18% 3% 0% 35% ParraManny 0% 17% 27% 0% 54% AxfordJohn 3% 24% 59% 0% 62% DillardTim 0% 11% 0% 0% 56% SuppanJeff 0% 10% 0% 0% 26% PeriardAlexandre 1% 18% 0% 0% 53% NarronSam 0% 13% 0% 6% 38% HalamaJohn 1% 11% 0% 2% 39% WrightChase 0% 5% 0% 0% 23% ScarpettaCody 0% 6% 14% 0% 45% ButlerJosh 0% 5% 0% 0% 45% JeffressJeremy 0% 9% 52% 0% 54% LofgrenChuck 0% 3% 0% 0% 16% RivasAmaury 0% 2% 1% 0% 9% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ FielderPrince .263 .370 .514 2443 8805 1427 2320 452 29 565 1991 1381 2219 32 24 131 WeeksRickie .236 .340 .400 1044 3869 732 912 166 41 129 451 491 1063 113 33 95 BraunRyan .281 .345 .517 2003 7947 1345 2233 429 71 436 1602 682 1808 110 45 125 GomezCarlos .244 .302 .358 1139 3343 452 817 150 42 49 343 233 793 160 58 76 HartCorey .262 .318 .450 1166 4188 612 1097 257 41 150 657 306 885 100 45 100 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ BushDavid 98 111 0 4.71 337 320 1876 1947 268 521 1300 95 SuppanJeff 157 165 0 4.75 488 472 2846 3196 378 999 1561 97 WolfRandy 165 141 0 4.20 473 468 2815 2731 356 1008 2287 104 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Cardinals
Cubs
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
These projections were sponsored in part by:
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2010 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
How does Weeks' batting average projection drop from last year (even if only .006), when he his well above it in the short time he did play. Is this taken from only '07, '08, and '09 leaving his '06 avg out of the equation and basically replacing it with the slightly lower but with far few at bats in '09?
The bullpen looks solid, if anybody other than Gallardo and Bush can get them a lead.
All in all, the team looks as uninspiring as I feared. Prince, Braun and Gallardo will probably have to beat those projections if the team is going to do anything (which is a lot to ask considering how good those 3 already are). I see ZiPS isn't buying McGehee's "breakout" last year or Gamel's potential. Counsell might still be their best option at 3rd, which is kind of funny.
Also, too bad DiFelice is out for the year, he's a nice story and a good pitcher.
BTW, thanks Dan for these.
ZiPS hates Gamel because Gamel's an absolute strikeout machine (the biggest improvement from old-style MLEs to my version is that traditional MLEs overrate very high BABIP hitters).
Don't know where Davis got to - I'm not at the ZiPS Supercomputer right now.
Dang! Still pretty good though.
No kidding. More hits than Braun?
Seems like with all the left-handed dross, Heether has at least a shot at making the roster. Assuming McGehee wins the 3B job, I'd much rather see Heether up and Gamel starting at Nashville than vice versa.
For those who don't follow the Brewers system, Heether's a nice story. He feels like a minor league free agent-type player, but he's actually been in the Brewers organization since 2003; they drafted him out of Long Beach State, where his infield-mate was Ryan Braun's future nemesis, Troy Tulowitzki.
Now, who exactly was clamoring for the Corey Hart career projection?
Previously, I went through baseball history and made a model for projecting the penalty of a missed season (obviously, bigger for pitchers than hitters).
When ZiPS sees a missing season or a season with a sudden dropoff to almost no playing time, it fills-in the low or no-play season to 38% of the previous baseline playing time for hitters and 26% of the previous baseline playing time for pitchers with an estimated penalty.
So, for Edmonds, ZiPS sees:
2006: 257/350/471 (408 PA)
2007: 252/325/403 (411 PA)
2008: 235/343/479 (401 PA)
2009: 217/301/393 (158 PA)
In essence, I had my computer problem-solve the best way to get the projection for players with missed or very partial seasons, given the baseline performance and the "return" performance and let it run for a day.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/red_sox_signed_cameron/
Shouldn't the Brewers finish ahead of the Cubs one of these years before we get these comments? (Congrats on 05 and 06, when both teams were totally irrelevant). Now where's that smiley face key...
On paper, I don't see the Brewers competing. I don't see a lot of upside here, but at the same time I don't see a lot of downside (IOW, I don't see anyone that seems likely to significantly over or underpeform their projections). The Cubs, OTOH, have a lot bigger range(although I tend to lean towards the pessimistic side, considering age and injury history). I'm slightly underwhelmed by the Cardinals, but they're easily the class of the division.
A couple of good role player seasons, with a couple of bounceback seasons from Suppan and Parra might actually see them take the Central.
So Doug decides to go with defense in 2008 and it pays off. But what Doug failed to recognize some great contributions from his bench and he assigned WAY TOO MUCH credit to his catcher for the pitching staff performance.
Doug goes back to the slugging approach but doesn't go 'all in' so finishing 3rd in runs scored isn't enough to offset the collapse of the pitching staff. And Milwaukee got ridiculously LUCKY in 2009 as there ain't no way on God's green earth Casey, Felipe or Craig have years like that ever again.
So now it's back to pitching and defense with Prince and Ryan to provide the offense.
I will just point out the Brewers last year finished 2 games under .500 with only one starter with an ERA+ of over 100. The rest were, well, rather disgusting. So three guys of this caliber TRIPLES the population. That's progress.
I find the Gamel projection reacting very seriously to the 2009 season when Mat saw his strikeout rate spike through the roof between Triple A and the majors. I think with some time under his belt Mat will calm himself down at the plate.
Having Escobar and Gomez up the middle looks to be a great fit with the pitching staff. Real potential for the staff to be more at ease letting the opposition take their cuts knowing guys out there will track it down.
I like that this is a decidely young team with some guys with a chip on their shoulder. Corey Hart claims to not care that fans are getting impatient with him swinging at sliders in the dirt. Gomez wants to show the Twins they made a mistake. Gamel wants to keep third base to himself. Alcides is determined to snarf up every ground ball on the infield. Prince will be starting his salary bonaza drive. Ryan Braun just hates pitchers.
If Macha can hold the bullpen together and I can keep from biting off my left big toe to ease the pain from watching Doug Davis on the mound I think Milwaukee will exceed expectations.
And you have to love Mose assuming that the post was by a Brewer fan. As if nobody else on BBTF takes shots at the Cubs..........
On the pitching side, Gallardo was pretty good last year with promising peripherals, and all the other starters were atrocious. The projections have 4 solid guys and several other options better than most teams' back-of-rotation filler and also better than any 2009 starter outside of Gallardo. I suppose Parra also still has a small chance to break out. The pen looks good. If anything, the pitching according to the projections could easily be above average this year, though I'm not filled with confidence.
Those comments have nothing to do with the Brewers previous performance...
Well Robbie Alomar went from 150 to 89 in 2002. I'm sure McGefee will have no problem going from 127 to 89, especially based on his past history.
If there is to be a Transaction Oracle, maybe Dan could delegate it to a trusted peer. As much as I miss the timely looks at transaction, I'm not about to suggest he take his focus away from ZIPS. Maybe him getting a partner here is the answer?
This shouldn't be read as a complaint. Just some thoughts and observations.
He's a year older and, more importantly, as 2005 becomes farther away, his potential upside decreases.
In addition, his improvement wasn't really much of an improvement - he had a BABIP of .358, more than 30 points better than his career high. Lopez didn't really perform like a 310/383/427 hitter, but more like a 285/350/390 hitter getting lucky.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main