I don't see a third straight one-game playoff listed in ODDIBE.

I want to see Anthony Slama in the big leagues just for his name.

Wow, that dropoff from Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer-Kubel-Span is pretty huge. I had never really looked at their roster that closely before.

Kudos to the Twins for winning the division with this group.

There is no way Mike Redmond hits a triple in 2010.

If Benji Molina could hit a triple this year, then anything is possible.

1. Is that Career Projection for Mauer all Catcher?

2. One funny thing about the Twins: if you look through the comp lists above you keep seeing the names of former Twins come up. For good (Mike Jackson) or ill (Tony Batista, Rondell White) they know what they want and they keep going after it.

3. I can't tell if this team is built for the regular season or the post-season. The stars carry you to the World Series (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan) but depth and not giving away starts wins in the regular season and they have four #2/3 starters and a lot of 80-85 ERA+ guys for #5 plus a heap of fair relievers and only a couple of defense fetishist spots to fill around average or better batters. The trouble is, they do give away regular season games with the defense fetish, and they aren't built for the post season because they have no #1/2 starters. It's close to a very good team (and good fundamentals may make it more likely that the bad guys don't lose for you even when they aren't winning for you either) but it's not quite there.

Oh, and I take the under on the Redmond projection, whatever it is. 82 OPS+ ? Too high. He looks utterly done, even as a traditional backup. In a situation where they might want to DH Mauer more than a normal starting catcher he's a very bad fit.

Seeing Brian Buscher so close to the top of that list makes me want to poke my eyes out.

The good news is that the Twins are a #1 starter, a decent infielder, and a bench bat away from being a really good team. And the bullpen should be very solid either way. I think I said the same things last year, though.

For a team with a "fundamentals" rep, the Twins sure play some lousy defense (according to ZiPS). Carlos Gomez, a couple of average guys and a bunch of drek.

You know the aged SS pickings are slim when Jeter and Cabrera have the same top 2 comps (in different order).

And so ZiPS is projecting that Matt Macri is going to make a deal with the devil any moment now?

I do love the comps just for all the names -- whoever thought I'd see Jerry Lumpe's name again?

For a team with a "fundamentals" rep, the Twins sure play some lousy defense (according to ZiPS).

The fundamentals reputation was earned by previous teams and is still applied to this one by lazy sportscasters. This team played a completely different brand of baseball than the Twins have provided in the past--mediocre starting pitching, lots of homeruns, less than stellar defense.

I do love the comps just for all the names -- whoever thought I'd see Jerry Lumpe's name again?

He's Lumpe! He's Lumpe! He's in Walt's head.

Not ZIPS related, but:

Darling: "I don't think anyone has made the transition from shortstop to third as well as Alex Rodriguez."

BULL @(#*$&@#*$

1. Is that Career Projection for Mauer all Catcher?

Technically, Mauer wasn't even all catcher this year - he was about 80% catcher, 20% DH.

So Mauer is the greatest catcher of all time? That's pretty cool.

The fundamentals reputation was earned by previous teams and is still applied to this one by lazy sportscasters. This team played a completely different brand of baseball than the Twins have provided in the past--mediocre starting pitching, lots of homeruns, less than stellar defense.

Another way of putting it would be that was earned by the enduring baseball paradigm of Ron Gardenhire, regardless of the actual skill set of his players.

Is Span really only an average defensive CFer? I have to admit I was pretty surprised to see that his UZR in CF for his career is -11. I admittedly only watch the Twins when the Sox play them, but he looks pretty spectacular wherever he's at in the OF...

The Twins, in theory, are perfectly aligned for the offseason. They have gaping holes in the infield which can be significantly upgraded just with below average players, and they don't actually need any pitching at all. While the Twins have nearly $60M locked up going into 2010, they're also opening a new ballpark and should have a bit more cash to spend. There are a reasonable number of competent 2B/3B types out there, and two of those guys are really all they need to be the best AL Central club going into 2010.

They could also see real improvement from dumping Delmon Young and picking up a better fielder for LF, even if they didn't improve his offense by much. (If only Carlos Gomez could hit at all.)

It's very hard with those projections to get to 1450 IP from that staff. You have to go about 7 starters and 7 relievers deep to do it, but of course that was the pattern this past year. The starters will be better next year at least judging by their age, well, and having watched them and their injury struggles. The bullpen actually struggled the first half of the year then jelled pretty well. It should be about the same next year, assuming Nathan still has it. He can't go forever.

But the big questions, it seems to me, are with the position players. Just grab the top 15 guys for OPS and you've got a decent distribution by position but some significant changes from 2009 and the Twins have been pretty conservative about making roster changes. So Punto will be back. But what of Gomez? Harris? Buscher? Cabrera? Young? What of Revere and Valencia? The Twins win with the whole roster. Who those 23rd and 24th and 25th guys will be will be important but difficult decisions for the Twins to make.

Personally I'd bring in Revere in place of Gomez. I'd hope to hang on to Cabrera. I'd sign a real 3B. Beyond that, maybe no change is for the better.

They have gaping holes in the infield which can be significantly upgraded just with below average players,

Except such players tend to be rather hard to find (though not expensive by FA standards). Good shape for the offseason is when you're strong at (most of) the defensive positions and only need to find non-awful alternatives at the corners. There are few, if any, "decent" MI on the "freely available" market. There are no FA SS of note and while there are a number of decent 2B they're all at the dreaded ages for 2B.

It's very hard with those projections to get to 1450 IP from that staff. You have to go about 7 starters and 7 relievers deep to do it, but of course that was the pattern this past year.

The average team (AL or NL) used 23 pitchers this year, most will have used about 20 by the AS break (i.e. it's not due to Sept callups). So the Twins will be going a lot deeper than 7 starters and 7 relievers. This year the Twins had 11 different guys start and 24 pitchers overall. They received a whopping 75 starts from guys with an ERA+ of 85 or below (average is usually around 45). They got 540 IP from their top 3 starters (that's probably pretty typical to above-average). They need real help in the rotation. Obviously a healthy and effective Liriano would help tremendously.

It really is amazing. The Twins are 5 guys who crushed the ball, 3 hot relievers, maybe half a dozen average players and crap. This sort of thing should give the Royals and Pirates hope:

step 1: Mauer
step 2: Morneau
step 3: crap
step 4: playoffs

They have gaping holes in the infield which can be significantly upgraded just with below average players,

Except such players tend to be rather hard to find (though not expensive by FA standards).

Not to mention that if you expect a player to be just below average and they have a disappointing season...you're in a lot of trouble.

they don't actually need any pitching at all

Really? Baker and Blackburn, plus Slowey returning from injury, is about all that they have for trustworthy starters. Maybe if they re-sign Pavano...

They have quite a bit of pitching to throw against the wall and see what sticks, though. Bonser will be back, Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, Liriano, Humber, Gabino. There's no guarantee that you'll get two quality starters out of that bunch, but it's far from a disaster.

A little disappointed in the Valencia projection but his glove might get him a shot.

They need a starting pitcher and it isn't Pavano. Doug Davis would fit perfectly.

The bullpen looks solid, I'm pretty confident they don't need Bobby Keppel.

They need a guy who can play 2B and 3B (Mark DeRosa, Adam Kennedy) and hit a little bit. That way they can give Valencia and Casilla a shot and have a fallback position in case one washes out completely. Nick Punto is a good utility guy but stretched playing every day. They don't believe Brendan Harris can do that so he needs to be dealt. They need a SS who can pick it desperately, that isn't Cabrera. Jack Wilson would be okay. Trading for JJ Hardy fits the hole perfectly.

There's no way I ever want Adam ####### Kennedy on the Twins.

Adam ####### Kennedy (.289/.348/.410) would have been a heck of a boost to the Twins infield this year. His performance was rather unexpected, though, and I wouldn't expect him to repeat it next year. I wonder what it would have taken to get him in package with Cabrera at the deadline...?

They have quite a bit of pitching to throw against the wall and see what sticks, though. Bonser will be back, Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, Liriano, Humber, Gabino. There's no guarantee that you'll get two quality starters out of that bunch, but it's far from a disaster.

It was a disaster for a few months this year. They've got numbers, but there is no reason to want to count on any of them. Baker, Slower and Blackburn are fine. I say sign the best free agent starter they can afford and let the others battle it out for one slot, rather than two. I'd go on a limb for Harden, I think, rather than someone like Washburn or Davis.

DL is right about Hardy being a perfect fit for SS. I suspect Perkins and Brendan Harris will be traded this offseason, anyway...it's worth at least offering them up to see if you can get Hardy. After signing a pitcher, use whatever money you've got left to find the best third baseman you can find. Even someone with some power to platoon there with Punto or Tolbert would be nice. Garret Atkins signing (after being DFAed), sounds about right.

Harden, Hardy, and Atkins....three fairly short term commitments, reserving enough money to extend Mauer. That works for me.

I think Hardy and Casey McGehee for Baker makes a fair amount of sense for both teams.

I think they have to lead with Perkins in a package for Hardy. Harris is a throw in; I think it takes one more solid player/prospect to get the deal done. Do the Brewers just want relief pitching? They can have one of Slama or Delaney.

I think Baker significantly outperforms that projection, if healthy. His FIPs the past 3 years are 3.89, 3.79, and 4.08. He got off to a rough start this year, perhaps due to missing a good chunk of Spring Training, but was generally very good thereafter. I'd like to see them go after Harden, as un-Twins-like as such a move would be. He's unreliable but I like the idea of Anderson working with him on his control issues. Harden's Canadian so maybe he wouldn't mind the cold.

So far as position players, they need two infielders and have one outfielder too many. There are some decent options out there for the infield, so hopefully the front office doesn't deal with that problem like they did the bullpen last off-season. Hardy would be nice, at the right price. Brutal projection for Valencia... I think he would be somewhat better than that though: his translated slugging % was .433 in AA and .446 in AAA. Clearly OBP would be a problem.