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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins
The 2009 Twins are probably one of the strongest examples of a "Stars n' Scrubs" teams that we've had in recent years, with the team kind of resembling a hybrid between the American Dreams and the SNK Crushers.The starting pitching was extremely disappointing and the biggest obstacle the Twins have this offseason is that they will probably have the lesser starting pitcher in every game they play this month. I agree with ZiPS that Baker and Slowey will be a bit better than league-average and Blackburn about average, but Liriano didn't return to be an ace, as least as of yet, and that really hurt the team.
Luckily for Twins fans, the team survived on the strength of 5 starters having star seasons and one of the greatest seasons by a catcher in baseball history. Nathan was great, the rest of the bullpen was solid, and the Twins had one of the most exciting stretch runs ever. Mauer and Morneau with a supporting cast of Cuddyer/Kubel/Span look solid going forward, but all bets are off after 2010 if they don't sign Mauer.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Joe Mauer* c 27 .336 .418 .525 132 497 84 167 31 3 19 84 73 55 4 1 148 Justin Morneau* 1b 29 .286 .367 .512 149 570 88 163 35 2 30 110 74 91 1 1 129 Jason Kubel* dh 28 .278 .350 .484 135 457 62 127 27 2 21 76 51 91 2 1 118 Michael Cuddyer rf 31 .275 .348 .475 123 465 71 128 28 4 19 71 48 93 5 1 115 Denard Span* cf 26 .290 .365 .392 142 549 85 159 21 7 7 60 61 96 24 12 101 Delmon Young lf 24 .286 .324 .426 138 521 68 149 28 3 13 75 28 108 8 4 97 Brian Buscher* 3b 29 .269 .342 .378 112 357 40 96 16 1 7 44 37 65 2 2 91 Brendan Harris ss 29 .267 .327 .394 129 449 58 120 26 2 9 49 38 91 2 2 90 Orlando Cabrera ss 35 .282 .326 .377 142 586 80 165 31 2 7 64 42 65 16 4 86 Justin Huber dh 27 .252 .316 .407 109 381 38 96 18 1 13 51 30 83 2 2 90 Joe Crede 3b 32 .246 .305 .422 91 329 37 81 17 1 13 45 26 50 0 1 90 Jose Morales c 27 .282 .335 .369 94 309 32 87 16 1 3 27 24 45 1 2 87 Ben Revere* cf 22 .283 .332 .366 114 459 63 130 20 3 4 42 29 46 30 15 85 Mike Redmond c 39 .279 .332 .355 53 172 16 48 8 1 1 19 11 19 0 0 82 Nick Punto# ss 32 .251 .331 .331 114 359 49 90 17 3 2 33 45 65 15 4 76 Matt Tolbert# 2b 28 .260 .311 .362 102 354 48 92 16 4 4 32 25 56 10 4 77 Tommy Watkins# lf 28 .263 .321 .358 84 243 33 64 12 1 3 25 20 41 5 4 80 Luke Hughes 3b 25 .240 .295 .377 98 371 41 89 18 3 9 44 27 94 4 1 76 Brock Peterson 1b 26 .242 .302 .366 114 413 46 100 19 1 10 44 31 109 1 1 76 Wilson Ramos c 22 .256 .297 .369 88 328 33 84 17 1 6 40 17 69 0 0 75 Daniel Valencia 3b 25 .251 .294 .377 133 517 62 130 28 2 11 55 32 112 1 3 76 Alexi Casilla# 2b 25 .259 .317 .333 130 468 61 121 17 3 4 39 39 70 20 7 73 Carlos Gomez cf 24 .249 .303 .359 136 398 59 99 18 4 6 39 26 92 23 8 75 Matt Macri 3b 28 .238 .292 .385 111 374 44 89 21 2 10 39 27 92 4 4 77 Steve Tolleson ss 26 .253 .315 .341 116 454 56 115 21 2 5 33 39 88 11 8 74 Trevor Plouffe ss 24 .254 .297 .370 128 492 59 125 27 3 8 51 30 91 5 6 75 David Winfree rf 24 .244 .287 .377 125 467 44 114 25 2 11 52 27 106 1 2 74 Chris Parmelee* 1b 22 .217 .299 .352 110 401 40 87 19 1 11 49 45 127 2 2 72 Jason Pridie* cf 26 .253 .286 .362 132 538 70 136 22 5 9 48 24 109 21 8 70 Dustin Martin* lf 26 .239 .294 .328 123 464 50 111 20 3 5 46 34 119 16 7 65 Drew Butera c 26 .234 .286 .327 102 333 28 78 17 1 4 30 22 65 0 1 62 Deibinson Romero 3b 23 .214 .274 .306 96 360 42 77 16 1 5 38 28 99 2 2 53 Defensive Projections * Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Mauer* Av Morneau* Av/69 Kubel* Pr/102 Pr/69 Cuddyer Fr/104 Pr/104 Pr/80 Span* Vg/103 Av/127 Av/112 Young Fr/140 Pr/182 Fr/95 Buscher* Av/125 Fr/125 Harris Fr/104 Pr/105 Fr/106 Cabrera Av/95 Huber Fr/141 Fr/70 Fr/70 Crede Ex/100 Morales Fr Revere* Av/186 Av/186 Redmond Fr Punto# Av/80 Av/71 Av/101 Tolbert# Fr/122 Av/105 Pr/85 Watkins# Fr/79 Av/194 Pr/81 Vg/179 Hughes Fr/136 Pr/121 Pr/179 Av/121 Peterson Av/143 Fr/185 Ramos Vg Valencia Vg/130 Casilla# Fr/152 Fr/127 Gomez Vg/118 Ex/118 Vg/118 Macri Vg/135 Fr/144 Fr/177 Tolleson Vg/210 Fr/193 Av/130 Av/130 Plouffe Fr/113 Av/113 Fr/162 Winfree Av/211 Fr/182 Av/124 Parmelee* Fr/166 Fr/162 Pridie* Vg/116 Vg/117 Vg/116 Martin* Vg/132 Av/109 Av/175 Butera Vg Romero Av/163 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 MauerJoe C 98% 2% 0% 0% 0% CochraneMickey SimmonsTed MunsonThurman MorneauJustin 1B 28% 41% 19% 10% 2% PalmeiroRafael MincherDon TroskyHal KubelJason DH 15% 29% 25% 24% 8% KleskoRyan SandersRay TerryBill CuddyerMichael RF 21% 31% 21% 17% 11% JohnsonRoy CalderonIvan SmithAl SpanDenard CF 13% 21% 32% 23% 10% LoftonKenny MetzlerAlex PodsednikScott YoungDelmon LF 4% 6% 11% 24% 56% LeeCarlos WhiteRondell RudiJoe CabreraOrlando SS 9% 17% 34% 27% 14% AparicioLuis RizzutoPhil DarkAlvin BuscherBrian 3B 2% 4% 13% 33% 48% BurnettJohnny HatfieldFred LumpeJerry HarrisBrendan SS 11% 15% 30% 29% 15% MarionMarty GustineFrankie BellJay HuberJustin DH 0% 0% 2% 21% 77% CostoTim MormanRuss HolmesStan RevereBen CF 0% 2% 13% 38% 47% WatsonBrandon RomeroAlex DamonJohnny CredeJoe 3B 2% 5% 13% 27% 52% BatistaTony BoyerCleteRodriguezAurelio MoralesJose C 1% 9% 24% 43% 24% GoochJohnny WilsonCraig BertellDick RedmondMike C 0% 9% 24% 37% 30% GuerraMike BordersPat FerrellRick PuntoNick SS 2% 8% 23% 35% 32% WeissWalt CounsellCraig FernandezTony TolbertMatt 2B 0% 1% 4% 20% 74% LirianoNelson CastroBernie MaciasJose GomezCarlos CF 0% 1% 6% 29% 63% RepkoJasonAllensworthJerma CottoHenry WatkinsTommy LF 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% AllenEthan EvansJoe PhillipsBubba HughesLuke 3B 0% 1% 2% 11% 86% MoronkoJeff RedfieldJoe CianfroccoArchi CasillaAlexi 2B 0% 1% 3% 17% 79% WigginsAlan CarterJeff WalewanderJim RamosWilson C 0% 1% 7% 37% 56% RodriguezIvan CardonaJavier PagnozziTom PetersonBrock 1B 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% MurrayRich MormanRuss CarpenterGlenn ValenciaDaniel 3B 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% HayesCharlie MoronkoJeff SpanosVasili MacriMatt 3B 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% TrubyChris BrookensTom RedfieldJoe PridieJason CF 0% 0% 2% 15% 83% DuffyChris CrosbyBubba GomezAlexis PlouffeTrevor SS 1% 2% 9% 29% 60% RamirezRafael WilsonJosh VersallesZoilo WinfreeDavid RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% MohrDustan JohnsonAdam VarnerGary TollesonSteven 2B 0% 0% 2% 11% 87% GustineFrankie CoachmanPete LansingMike ParmeleeChris 1B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% NelsonBrad CoxSteve CastroEdgar MartinDustin LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% BubelaJaime ClarkDoug RainesTim ButeraDrew C 0% 0% 0% 4% 96% WilsonDan MillerDamian PurdomJohn RomeroDeibinson 3B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% HendersonRamon WoodsTony RoseBobby Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB MauerJoe 90% 93% 64% 60% 5% 0% 11% 0% MorneauJustin 29% 38% 55% 24% 12% 0% 44% 0% KubelJason 22% 20% 33% 12% 1% 0% 10% 0% CuddyerMichael 17% 17% 30% 10% 1% 4% 9% 0% SpanDenard 34% 33% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 23% YoungDelmon 29% 3% 5% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% CabreraOrlando 22% 4% 1% 0% 7% 0% 0% 1% BuscherBrian 13% 11% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% HarrisBrendan 14% 6% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% HuberJustin 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RevereBen 26% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% CredeJoe 3% 1% 7% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% MoralesJose 26% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RedmondMike 33% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PuntoNick 5% 7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% TolbertMatt 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% GomezCarlos 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 13% WatkinsTommy 13% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HughesLuke 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CasillaAlexi 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% RamosWilson 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PetersonBrock 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ValenciaDaniel 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% MacriMatt 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PridieJason 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 6% PlouffeTrevor 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% WinfreeDavid 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TollesonSteven 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ParmeleeChris 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MartinDustin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% ButeraDrew 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RomeroDeibinson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Kevin Slowey 26 4.40 10 9 26 25 147.1 160 72 22 27 108 101 Scott Baker 28 4.45 12 11 33 32 196.0 199 97 25 45 153 100 Nick Blackburn 28 4.61 11 11 32 31 183.2 217 94 24 42 86 97 Francisco Liriano* 26 4.68 10 10 31 26 157.2 156 82 19 62 143 95 Carl Pavano 34 5.04 6 8 19 19 110.2 127 62 16 25 72 88 Brian Duensing* 27 5.18 8 10 32 24 149.1 176 86 20 49 75 86 Boof Bonser 28 5.24 3 5 23 11 80.2 89 47 12 29 64 86 Jeff Manship 25 5.39 8 11 29 26 140.1 167 84 15 58 72 83 Glen Perkins* 27 5.62 5 8 25 20 115.1 139 72 20 38 58 80 Anthony Swarzak 24 5.88 6 11 27 27 137.2 170 90 22 55 69 76 Jason Jones 26 6.18 6 14 27 23 137.0 170 94 25 48 57 70 Matt Fox 27 6.37 5 10 28 20 113.0 140 80 20 58 63 70 Phil Humber 28 6.65 5 12 32 23 130.0 159 96 28 61 74 67 Cole Devries 25 6.80 5 13 25 25 124.1 167 94 27 58 59 66 Deolis Guerra 21 7.06 6 16 27 25 125.0 160 98 22 73 58 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joe Nathan 35 2.73 3 1 65 0 62.2 48 19 6 21 75 160 Matt Guerrier 31 4.04 5 4 76 0 75.2 75 34 10 24 55 110 Jose Mijares* 25 4.09 3 2 58 0 55.0 53 25 6 21 46 111 Pat Neshek 29 4.21 2 1 30 0 25.2 22 12 3 10 28 109 Ron Mahay* 39 4.34 2 2 55 0 58.0 61 28 8 27 44 101 Robert Delaney 25 4.40 4 4 58 0 71.2 74 35 7 23 50 101 Jon Rauch 31 4.40 5 5 77 0 71.2 75 35 9 22 53 101 Anthony Slama 26 4.50 3 3 52 0 60.0 56 30 6 38 59 98 Jesse Crain 28 4.58 5 5 57 0 55.0 55 28 6 25 44 97 Bob Keppel 28 4.75 3 3 64 0 94.2 107 50 7 34 44 93 R.A. Dickey 35 5.39 5 7 37 13 123.2 145 74 17 52 63 83 Armando Gabino 26 5.53 4 6 47 4 84.2 99 52 11 39 43 81 Juan Morillo 26 5.65 4 5 55 0 65.1 65 41 6 57 51 80 Reid Santos* 27 5.90 3 6 35 11 90.0 109 59 15 38 52 76 Tim Lahey 28 6.12 3 6 49 0 64.2 78 44 10 33 36 73 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 NathanJoe RP 88% 12% 0% RiveraMariano HenkeTom JacksonMike MijaresJose RP 28% 52% 20% StantonMike PooleJim van de BergEd GuerrierMatt RP 28% 55% 17% PeraltaJoel CorsiJim SpradlinJerry NeshekPat RP 44% 30% 26% HumphreysBob JonesGordon BradfordLarry RauchJon RP 16% 55% 29% MooreDonnie BeckRod GieseDan MahayRon RP 19% 47% 34% VilloneRon StantonMike CookDennis SloweyKevin SP 29% 60% 11% SandersonScott ShieldsJames WoodardSteve DelaneyRobert RP 13% 55% 32% BennettErik NakamuraMicheal CoucheeMike BakerScott SP 29% 59% 12% EckersleyDennis SandersonScott MussinaMike SlamaAnthony RP 12% 51% 37% LittellMark BukvichRyan JenksBobby BlackburnNick SP 23% 56% 21% SilvaCarlos TowersJosh BrennanTom CrainJesse RP 9% 44% 46% CastilloBobby FlorieBryce RyanKen LirianoFrancisco SP 18% 61% 21% BannisterFloyd DeshaiesJim BurnsBritt KeppelBobby RP 6% 39% 55% MurrayDale DevineAdrian LinzyFrank PavanoCarl SP 7% 46% 47% ColonBartolo EilandDave LieberJon DuensingBrian SP 6% 44% 51% PriestEddie HillmanEric RheineckerJohn BonserBoof SP 2% 28% 70% CarlyleBuddy McGaffiganAndy HarrisGreg DickeyR.A. SP 1% 17% 82% SlatonJim FranklinRyan WalkerPete ManshipJeffrey SP 2% 34% 64% LaCossMike ScottMike BaekCha-Seung GabinoArmando RP 0% 16% 84% DavenportJoe SmithDave RoehlScott MorilloJuan RP 1% 17% 82% BowlesBrian BarryKevin AndersonRick PerkinsGlen SP 1% 23% 76% GassnerDave IlsleyBlaise BeattyBlaine SantosReid SP 0% 7% 93% MalaskaMark WardBryan LeeMark SwarzakAnthony SP 0% 11% 89% PowellBrian ClutterbuckBryan LeeseBrandon LaheyTimothy RP 0% 6% 94% SmallMark NickleDoug RitchieTodd FoxMatthew SP 0% 4% 96% KelingKorey MendozaHatuey BouknightKip HumberPhilip SP 0% 2% 98% LintonDoug LeisterJohn MottlRyan JonesJason SP 0% 1% 99% MiddletonKyle TamayoDanny ZieglerBrad DevriesCole SP 0% 1% 99% TamayoDanny ValdezEdward BrowerJim GuerraDeolis SP 0% 0% 100% StemleSteve RotheyMark MackTony Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 NathanJoe 88% 100% 99% 8% 74% MijaresJose 28% 74% 29% 2% 59% GuerrierMatt 18% 73% 5% 9% 38% NeshekPat 33% 65% 68% 17% 62% RauchJon 12% 59% 5% 14% 51% MahayRon 14% 52% 11% 1% 36% SloweyKevin 5% 58% 4% 85% 16% DelaneyRobert 9% 55% 2% 7% 67% BakerScott 4% 57% 12% 49% 39% SlamaAnthony 12% 56% 73% 0% 79% BlackburnNick 3% 46% 0% 53% 32% CrainJesse 9% 46% 21% 0% 63% LirianoFrancisco 2% 40% 55% 1% 48% KeppelBobby 5% 36% 0% 4% 83% PavanoCarl 1% 22% 1% 55% 21% DuensingBrian 1% 17% 0% 5% 35% BonserBoof 1% 20% 16% 3% 27% DickeyR.A. 1% 11% 1% 2% 36% ManshipJeffrey 0% 9% 0% 0% 63% GabinoArmando 0% 10% 0% 0% 40% MorilloJuan 1% 10% 16% 0% 80% PerkinsGlen 0% 5% 0% 5% 11% SantosReid 0% 3% 0% 0% 13% SwarzakAnthony 0% 1% 0% 0% 13% LaheyTimothy 0% 4% 0% 0% 22% FoxMatthew 0% 1% 0% 0% 8% HumberPhilip 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% JonesJason 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% DevriesCole 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% GuerraDeolis 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ MorneauJustin .274 .350 .482 2162 8138 1191 2229 470 31 386 1502 971 1347 8 18 118 MauerJoe .318 .403 .477 2306 8616 1377 2743 491 43 263 1296 1265 1020 83 24 133 CuddyerMichael .265 .338 .451 1530 5534 814 1468 320 49 203 786 560 1160 63 19 107 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ NathanJoe 63 29 478 2.85 918 29 1050 786 100 387 1148 154 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. Defense is given both as a range number in the same quintiles (EX/VG/AV/FR/PO). The number after the range is the projected error rate as a percentage of league average, with higher numbers being worse.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 07, 2009 at 01:12 PM | 29 comment(s)
Related News: Minnesota, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Minnesota, Projections, ZIPS
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Kudos to the Twins for winning the division with this group.
2. One funny thing about the Twins: if you look through the comp lists above you keep seeing the names of former Twins come up. For good (Mike Jackson) or ill (Tony Batista, Rondell White) they know what they want and they keep going after it.
3. I can't tell if this team is built for the regular season or the post-season. The stars carry you to the World Series (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan) but depth and not giving away starts wins in the regular season and they have four #2/3 starters and a lot of 80-85 ERA+ guys for #5 plus a heap of fair relievers and only a couple of defense fetishist spots to fill around average or better batters. The trouble is, they do give away regular season games with the defense fetish, and they aren't built for the post season because they have no #1/2 starters. It's close to a very good team (and good fundamentals may make it more likely that the bad guys don't lose for you even when they aren't winning for you either) but it's not quite there.
The good news is that the Twins are a #1 starter, a decent infielder, and a bench bat away from being a really good team. And the bullpen should be very solid either way. I think I said the same things last year, though.
You know the aged SS pickings are slim when Jeter and Cabrera have the same top 2 comps (in different order).
And so ZiPS is projecting that Matt Macri is going to make a deal with the devil any moment now?
I do love the comps just for all the names -- whoever thought I'd see Jerry Lumpe's name again?
The fundamentals reputation was earned by previous teams and is still applied to this one by lazy sportscasters. This team played a completely different brand of baseball than the Twins have provided in the past--mediocre starting pitching, lots of homeruns, less than stellar defense.
He's Lumpe! He's Lumpe! He's in Walt's head.
BULL @(#*$&@#*$
Technically, Mauer wasn't even all catcher this year - he was about 80% catcher, 20% DH.
Another way of putting it would be that was earned by the enduring baseball paradigm of Ron Gardenhire, regardless of the actual skill set of his players.
They could also see real improvement from dumping Delmon Young and picking up a better fielder for LF, even if they didn't improve his offense by much. (If only Carlos Gomez could hit at all.)
But the big questions, it seems to me, are with the position players. Just grab the top 15 guys for OPS and you've got a decent distribution by position but some significant changes from 2009 and the Twins have been pretty conservative about making roster changes. So Punto will be back. But what of Gomez? Harris? Buscher? Cabrera? Young? What of Revere and Valencia? The Twins win with the whole roster. Who those 23rd and 24th and 25th guys will be will be important but difficult decisions for the Twins to make.
Personally I'd bring in Revere in place of Gomez. I'd hope to hang on to Cabrera. I'd sign a real 3B. Beyond that, maybe no change is for the better.
Except such players tend to be rather hard to find (though not expensive by FA standards). Good shape for the offseason is when you're strong at (most of) the defensive positions and only need to find non-awful alternatives at the corners. There are few, if any, "decent" MI on the "freely available" market. There are no FA SS of note and while there are a number of decent 2B they're all at the dreaded ages for 2B.
It's very hard with those projections to get to 1450 IP from that staff. You have to go about 7 starters and 7 relievers deep to do it, but of course that was the pattern this past year.
The average team (AL or NL) used 23 pitchers this year, most will have used about 20 by the AS break (i.e. it's not due to Sept callups). So the Twins will be going a lot deeper than 7 starters and 7 relievers. This year the Twins had 11 different guys start and 24 pitchers overall. They received a whopping 75 starts from guys with an ERA+ of 85 or below (average is usually around 45). They got 540 IP from their top 3 starters (that's probably pretty typical to above-average). They need real help in the rotation. Obviously a healthy and effective Liriano would help tremendously.
It really is amazing. The Twins are 5 guys who crushed the ball, 3 hot relievers, maybe half a dozen average players and crap. This sort of thing should give the Royals and Pirates hope:
step 1: Mauer
step 2: Morneau
step 3: crap
step 4: playoffs
Except such players tend to be rather hard to find (though not expensive by FA standards).
Not to mention that if you expect a player to be just below average and they have a disappointing season...you're in a lot of trouble.
Really? Baker and Blackburn, plus Slowey returning from injury, is about all that they have for trustworthy starters. Maybe if they re-sign Pavano...
They need a starting pitcher and it isn't Pavano. Doug Davis would fit perfectly.
The bullpen looks solid, I'm pretty confident they don't need Bobby Keppel.
They need a guy who can play 2B and 3B (Mark DeRosa, Adam Kennedy) and hit a little bit. That way they can give Valencia and Casilla a shot and have a fallback position in case one washes out completely. Nick Punto is a good utility guy but stretched playing every day. They don't believe Brendan Harris can do that so he needs to be dealt. They need a SS who can pick it desperately, that isn't Cabrera. Jack Wilson would be okay. Trading for JJ Hardy fits the hole perfectly.
It was a disaster for a few months this year. They've got numbers, but there is no reason to want to count on any of them. Baker, Slower and Blackburn are fine. I say sign the best free agent starter they can afford and let the others battle it out for one slot, rather than two. I'd go on a limb for Harden, I think, rather than someone like Washburn or Davis.
DL is right about Hardy being a perfect fit for SS. I suspect Perkins and Brendan Harris will be traded this offseason, anyway...it's worth at least offering them up to see if you can get Hardy. After signing a pitcher, use whatever money you've got left to find the best third baseman you can find. Even someone with some power to platoon there with Punto or Tolbert would be nice. Garret Atkins signing (after being DFAed), sounds about right.
Harden, Hardy, and Atkins....three fairly short term commitments, reserving enough money to extend Mauer. That works for me.
So far as position players, they need two infielders and have one outfielder too many. There are some decent options out there for the infield, so hopefully the front office doesn't deal with that problem like they did the bullpen last off-season. Hardy would be nice, at the right price. Brutal projection for Valencia... I think he would be somewhat better than that though: his translated slugging % was .433 in AA and .446 in AAA. Clearly OBP would be a problem.
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