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Anderson's projection sort of surprises me, figured it would be much better than that. Many people feel Anderson had as good of a season as Hanson and is a better bet moving forward. The difference between them here is interesting especially since Anderson is more than a year younger.
I know a lot of A's fans think they can win the AL West this year, not sure that is the case given what is shown above. Will be interesting to see what happens or what excuses A's fans come up with to bail Beane out if they do in fact fail to win the AL West.
If that's all the A's get out of Sheets and the Duke then it's going to be a looooooong season.
I would definitely like to see Gio get the nod for the 5th spot in the rotation out of ST. That should give Cahill time to head to AAA and get back to his power sinker game. It will also buy the A's an extra year of service from Cahill. Plus Gio looked good down the stretch last year and at this point I think he deserves a shot. There is some real upside there.
Offense still looks underwhelming. I love that Rajai's top comp is Neon Deion.
It's going to be painful watching Geren write Chavez and his 98 OPS+ into the lineup semi-regularly at 1b/DH, replacing one of the only 2 real bats on the team.
That's why they play the games, right?
Sure and it is possible, don't get me wrong. It's just ZiPS would have to be wrong on a lot of players above for that to happen, especially the pitching side.
Granted he missed all of last season, but he looks fully healthy now and couldn't really ask for a better park and outfield defense to be pitching in front of. His ERA gained 0.91 from last year's projection. Seems a bit extreme, despite missing the 2009 season. You must have given him a pretty big blow up for the 2009 season stats to come up with that projection for 2010?
I think the last time Sheets had a K rate that low was his rookie season.
Thanks for all your hard work on these! We do appreciate all the time you spend producing the ZIPS.
Changing league pretty much cancels out the park/defense edge in Oakland. ZiPS doesn't explicitly use xFIP, but HR regresses towards the mean much more than BB or K do and with 2006, Sheets's half-year of ridiculous awesomeness getting farther to the rear, the projection has less 2006 than this year's projection, which goes down due to a lesser 2007-2008 (xFIP in the 4.20 range) and a whole missed season.
I'm surprised Breslow, Blevins, and Kilby don't project better.
I was hoping for a Brett Anderson career projection...
I don't see how Casseveh would be much use on the Sacramento staff--much less in Oakland.
Oh, and Mickey Storey! I wonder what ZIPS would spit out for Paul Smyth (PECOTA gives him one of the top 5 eqERAs in baseball).
The K rate of 5.8/9 still seems low, as well.
Are the offensive rankings ok? Seems the OPS+s are slightly out of order towards the top (105, 98, 98, 101, 100, 100). Not sure if that's just some slight ranking issues, or if that's indicative of somethign else.
How would Sheets project if his 2009 ZiPS had been his 2009 season line, rather than missing the entire year?
The players are sorted by RC/27, and OPS+ slightly undervalues OBP versus SLG.
It's interesting to see the Grand Canyon sized chasm between him and Carter in ZiPS' eyes. The system clearly really, really, really hates big strikeout rates in young sluggers. Hopefully Carter's positive trend last year continues and he keeps improving his contact skills.
That projection actually seems way optimistic to me.
How sad, Coco Crisp is my starting CF in 2 sim leagues :( haha
Hey Dan, Would it be possible to get a Corey Wimberly and perhaps a Santiago Casilla (since the Giants got him after their TO) projection?
Thanks!
My biggest problem with the A's off-season is that the $ thrown at Crisp and Gross would have been better spent signing Suzuki long term. The difference between Crisp/Gross and Patterson/Buck certainly isn't worth $7M. Actually, it might even make the team worse.
Suzuki is a minor star, something like a 3-win player if he keeps showing up for work behind the dish. But if the A's don't intend to keep him past club control, they might as well go year to year.
I think the A's would be fools not to try and lock him up past club control, especially if the alternative is pissing your $ away on the Crisps and Grosses of the league.
Of course it all depends on price. Part of why I think they should lock him up is because I think they could do it relatively cheaply. That might not be the case.
Unfortunately, this looks like a batting order of 8 role players + Jack Cust. Which is just not much of an offense.
I know people say this a lot, but I am utterly unconvinced. (Or, at very least, the chances of traumatic injury are high enough that a small durability skill may not be particularly important in the long run.)
I think the A's would be fools not to try and lock him up past club control, especially if the alternative is pissing your $ away on the Crisps and Grosses of the league.
I agree the second clause of your statement.
Look, the A's are wringing every PA they can out of Kap'n Kurt while he's young. When he hits free agency, he'll be a 29 year old catcher with a crap-ton of mileage whose value is tied into his ability to stay on the field. I love him as much as the next A's fan (apart from Chavez and Ellis, he's my favorite position player), but I doubt that he's a good gamble going into his FA years.
I don't think "league average" is a stretch for this bunch, but yeah, the run prevention is going to have to be pretty nifty to make this offense fly.
Among starting pitchers they only have Pedro Figueroa. (and Edgar Gonzalez who is actually signed with the LG Twins now)
Among relief pitchers they only have Henry Rodriguez. (not Fernando Hernandez, he's from Miami)
It's not just avoiding injuries, it's the ability to play more often than other uninjured catchers. Backup catchers are teh suck (though Powell is actually better than average; he just can't play regularly).
And I still don't get how Weeks projects that well. He's hit .282 in the minors, with just 30 games above A ball. I think he'd be far south of .269 if he were forced to the majors this year. Did he accidentally get one of his brother's seasons thrown into his file?
And I think Kurt will still be a solid contributor through his 29-32 yo seasons.
Time will tell.
And the Crisp signing isn't all that bad either. It's just that for a team that always seems to be scraping every $ together it's money better spent elsewhere.
Really that's my only beef with this off-season and it's a pretty minor one. Hopefully Crisp performs well this season and proves me wrong.
The roster seems pretty set. The only real questions are 5th starter, UT infielder, and whether Chavez is healthy.
----
Starting 9: Suzuki, Barton, Ellis, Kouzmanoff, Pennington, Rajai, Crisp, Sweeney, Cust
Bench: Powell, Chavez, Gross, UT
Rotation: Sheets, Duke, Anderson, Braden, Cahill
Bullpen: Bailey, Devine, Wuertz, Ziegler, Breslow, Blevins, Kilby.
---
There is some talk of Chavez being the backup SS if he's healthy, which would free up a roster spot for Fox. Gio and Mazzaro will compete for the 5th starte spot, but it's Cahill's job to lose. Meloan could grab a bullpen spot from Blevins or Kilby, but that seems doubtful. The team is paying lip service to Patterson (who is out of options) and Buck competing with Gross for the 4th OF job, but 1) going with Buck would mean losing Gross and Patterson, and 2) Gross is better than Patterson.
If Chavez is hurt, Fox takes his place.
What I am saying is that his ability to play so damn much is not as much of a skill as, say, his ability to hit.
34: I think agreeing to disagree is ok, but I also think that it renders the "health is a skill" meme (who started that, anyway, Will Carroll?) at least debatable. I'm not so much underrating the "skill" as suggesting that it may not really exist (certainly, a durable catcher is insanely valuable). And if Kurt is a solid contributor through his age 32, I'll be cheering him on (as long as he's not on the Angels. Or Red Sox. Or Yankees.)
In researching multiple-position players, I've found that play at the highest levels, even at an easier position is very hard to maintain short-term when players don't play the position. Darin Erstad is one of the exceptions. I tend to be extremely conservative about EX ratings.
Keeping him on the roster only to fill in at 1B/DH is beyond stupid and a total waste of a roster spot since he can't even platoon with the incumbents. My hope is that they only keep him around if they feel like he's healthy enough to spot at 3b/SS and can push Rosales/Tolleson/Fox all to AAA.
The starting lineup is basically set:
C Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Ellis
3B Kouz
SS Pennington
LF Davis
CF Crisp
RF Sweeney
The bench is the big question.
BC Powell
INF1 & INF2 Chavez/Fox/Rosales/Tolleson/Patterson
OF Gross/Patterson/Buck
Rotation:
SP1 Sheets
SP2 Duke
SP3 Braden
SP4 Anderson
SP5 Cahill/Gio/Mazzaro (really Mazz's shot is pretty slim here)
Pen:
RP1 Bailey
RP2 Weurtz
RP3 Ziggy
RP4 Devine
RP5 Breslow
RP6/RP7 Kilby/Giese/Blevins/Casseveh/Gio
I know SLG is but one number, and this is Oakland and all, but not one hitter projected to slug .450? Yowza!
That's the same number of qualifiers with a .450 SLG they had last year, and reality should have a wider range!
Technically, of course, if I Monte Carlo that #### out with various combinations, ZiPS likes Oakland to have 1.3-1.8 .450 sluggers! Also, I think I'm losing my mind because Firefox is underlining "combinations" in red and I'm pretty sure that's a word.
What does it do to Sheets projection if his K rate is projected somewhere close to the levels he ran his last two years of pitching? 6.75/9 in 2007 and 7.17/9 in 2008.
Even with a transition to the tougher league doesn't a 5.8/9 K rate seem a little low to you?
Not Dan, but maybe something to do with all the extra foul ground in Oakland making it easier to put a ball in play and thus less easy to get Ks? Just a thought.
Moving from the NL to the AL has some impact on K rates for pitchers, however the decline that ZIPS is projecting for Sheets K rate appears a bit extreme.
Apparently, Firefox just against the idea of more than one combination.
No, no, just a guess/theory. I have no idea if there's any data to back it up. Maybe I should look it up.
Okay, I looked it up. There were slightly more Ks in Oakland home games than away games over the past two years (+8 in '08, +4 in '09), but in 2007 there were 181 more Ks in away games involving the A's. Didn't look past that but maybe (maybe!) there's something there. I'm guessing Dan will know one way or the other.
It stands to reason though. Large amounts of foul ground dampens offense because more PAs end in foul-outs before the hit/walk occurs. Some of those PAs would have ended in Ks (and ground outs for that matter). Whether that adds up to more than 4-5 Ks a year I have no idea but I don't see why more foul ground wouldn't reduce the incidence of all outcomes including Ks. (OK, if there's more foul ground down the OF lines, then I suppose 2B and 3B rates could conceivably go up.)
Thanks.
Except violent street crime.
Seems like a big part of it. From 2006-2009, per Retrosheet:
<u>Oakland Road Games</u>
BB/PA: .088
K/PA: 0.179
Foul outs: 549
<u>Oakland Home Games</u>
BB/PA: .087
K/PA: 0.170
Foul outs: 730
-- MWE
Some drop, sure...all the way to 5.8/9? That is putting him at a level he hasn't been close to since his rookie season.
ZIPS has far and away the most pessimistic K rate stats for Sheets for the 2010 season. Next closest I've seen is in the 6.39/9 range.
Using 550 PA's times a factor of .009 results in just under 5 K's for Sheets whole projection. Are half of those starts going to be on the road? So in a worst case if Sheets made all of his projected 14 starts at home, Oakland's park would dampen his K total by 5 K's or a rate of 0.39/9. Realistically, some of Sheets starts are going to come on the road. So what is a realistic impact of the Oakland stadium on Sheets K's 2.5 to 3 K's for his projected season?
Anyways, ZIPS has by far, the most conservative K rate projection for Sheets for this upcoming season at 5.8/9. I think the rest I've seen range anywhere from 6.39/9 to just a tick over 7.0/9.
Just trying to find the logic in the numbers.
Thanks for your time Dan.
Maybe at the very beginning of the year, but if Crisp is as bad as his projection and Taylor as good as his, I can't see him not taking Crisp's spot by May.
ZiPS generally likes the A's pitching less than the other systems
It looks like HR rate is the culprit -- at least it's what most surprised me. If they give up that many HR pitching in Oakland half the time, that would be very bad.
I think overall you have done a very good job with such a large task. I still disagree on a lot of players and I'll be curious to see if Zobrist comes within 5 points of the 123 I guessed. Haha Even I understand that is arbitrary though, just surprised at the projection given what we know now (I've heard BP and KLaw among other sites talk about the change in approach/swing several times and he was always very talented). Thanks and thanks for all the replies over the past few weeks.
Haven't missed it yet! Mid-Feb should be 10th-18th or so, no? I think I'll have the teams done by Tuesday. Then I'll need a few more days to get the spares (requested projections and leftovers, guys like Will Startup, that were projected last year but not yet this year) and clean up guys that are going to lose projections (Bonds, Mussina, and so on).
I think I first read it from Bill James, talking about Pete Rose.
OK, if everybody acknowledges that large foul territory can hamper offense, because of increased foul outs; and that chasing down those foul balls can take a certain amount of extra skill, how can it be that third-baseman putouts don't indicate a better third baseman? This relates back to Bill James, talking about how he "studied it for a week" but couldn't find any correlation between 3b skill and increased putouts.
Sample size, or what?
My best guess at 2010 Lineup, using ODDIBE comps, where available:
C AlomarSandy
1B KrukJohn
2B AvilaBobby
3B KouzmanoffKevin
SS LopezFelipe
LF McGeeWillie
CF CrispCovelli
RF MooreJo-Jo
DH BurrellPat
1B was a tough one, could have easily gone with Mike Aldrete for Daric, but still have a bit of mancrush left.
Same deal, 2010 Rotation:
SP1 SmithBryn
SP2 AndujarJoaquin
SP3 HalamaJohn
SP4 SwindellGreg
SP5 GuzmanJose/RhodesArthur/NavarroJaime
Watch out, M's?
I haven't seen anyone suggesting that Chavez will be starting regularly, healthy or not. Slusser and new MLB.com writer, Jane Lee, both say he's competing for a utility IF job. Fox might beat out Barton as the starting 1B, but I'd be very surprised.
I don't think anyone is expecting the bullpen to repeat last year's performance (3.54 ERA, best in the AL).
But there does seem to be some systemic difference between ZIPS and other projection systems with the A's pitchers. I would guess it's either park factors, league scoring levels, or fielding metrics. Here's how those three systems see the team's top 7 SP (Sheets, Duke, Anderson, Braden, Cahill, Mazzaro, Gio) and top 7 RP (Bailey, Ziegler, Devine, Wuertz, Breslow, Blevins, Kilby) by average ERA:
. CHONE PECOTA ZIPSStarters 4.19 4.34 4.59
Relievers 3.49 3.65 4.00
Definitely not Carroll; he hasn't been around long enough. It has been a favorite of Ron Shandler's for many years, but if I had to guess, I'd attribute it to Bill James back in the Abstract days.
Wow, more than 2 foul outs (on average) in every home game?
I'm gonna have to start watching for that.
System W-L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ZiPS 7-7 4.32 19 19 116.2 125 56 14 30 75 101
Actual 4-9 4.53 20 20 119.1 123 60 18 43 85 90 (ERA+ is estimated)
Nice job, Dan.
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