BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Eddieot Posted: November 21, 2009 at 03:57 PM (#3393424)

Optimism reigns with Francisco and Taylor. I like that.

2. Shilzzz Posted: November 21, 2009 at 05:14 PM (#3393466)

thanks! good to see a new one up.

3. zachtoma Posted: November 21, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3393492)

The Phillies have a one-two punch of John Smiley and John Smiley at the top of the rotation!

4. Walt Davis Posted: November 21, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3393514)

The Blanton projection seems off -- that would be his best ERA+ since 2005. The walk rate looks too low.

5. John DiFool2 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3393570)

Howard would appear (given above career lines) a much better chance at the Hall than Utley, even tho the latter is a much better overall player; Utley's only chance would appear to be to catch Kent for the most HR's by a 2B title. So it's off to the end of the line of second base rejects, along with Whitaker & Grich, for him.

6. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: November 21, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3393578)

These seem like very good projections for the Phillies, this looks like a great team. Which is not to say that they're too starry-eyed or anything, necessarily.

Maybe directly following the Pirates accentuates the effect.

7. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 21, 2009 at 09:17 PM (#3393592)

It annoys me that the Phillies managed to get Francisco as a toss-in.

8. metsman128 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 09:40 PM (#3393601)

Not that it's a really important player, but I was curious how a guy like Rich Thompson or Jorge Valandia gets put on the list but someone like John Mayberry Jr. who actually played in this bigs this season for a few games doesn't even get a projection?

9. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 21, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3393616)

Looks like Brandon Inge would be a fit here.

10. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: November 21, 2009 at 11:19 PM (#3393633)

someone like John Mayberry Jr. who actually played in this bigs this season for a few games doesn't even get a projection?

He's listed under John Mayberry, Jr. :) Look at the OPS+ 83 area.

11. philly Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3393723)

A rotation with 4 200 game winners sure sounds pretty great! Ok Pedro and Moyer are already there. But are Lee and Hamels both good bets to get to 200 wins? Nothing systemtic, but I've been surprised at the number of 200 game winners that ZiPS has been projecting.

Utley's career 177-21 SB-CS ratio looks odd. He's at 83-11 so that would be 94-10 the rest of his career. He's a good and smart baserunner, but I wouldn't bet on that. A freak show stat - but is there anybody in MLB history with greater than 175 SB and less than 25 CS?

12. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:08 AM (#3393728)

I'll double-check the Utley SB thing.

13. Travolta19 Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:18 AM (#3393731)

Wow, nice projection on Taylor...Hey Dan, not to hijack this, but can you check out my David Lough question near the end of the Royals ZiPS?

Thanks,
Jim

BNSL Royals

14. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:23 AM (#3393735)

Is Taylor the best 5th OF in the majors?

15. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:28 AM (#3393738)

Lough will be in the final build.

16. Travolta19 Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:42 AM (#3393741)

Thanks

17. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: November 22, 2009 at 09:45 PM (#3394073)

That's a pretty nice career projection for Rollins; if he makes it 18 or 19 seasons as a SS and gets to +2800 hits / +1600 runs / +250 hrs / +500 sb, he's in the Hall.

18. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: November 22, 2009 at 11:48 PM (#3394153)

Remember the "Chuck Norris"-type comments about Hamels a few years ago? Looking at his ZIPS career, Cole Hamels is so ______ because he will start more games than he appears in.

19. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 23, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3394160)

20. AndrewJ Posted: November 23, 2009 at 12:04 AM (#3394161)

Utley's career 177-21 SB-CS ratio looks odd. He's at 83-11 so that would be 94-10 the rest of his career. He's a good and smart baserunner, but I wouldn't bet on that. A freak show stat - but is there anybody in MLB history with greater than 175 SB and less than 25 CS?

After a quick search using Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia CD-ROM, I came up with this list:

CAREER
1951-2009
CAUGHT STEALING <= 30

STOLEN BASES SB CS
1 Pokey Reese 144 26
2 Henry Cotto 130 26
3 Jacoby Ellsbury 129 23
4 Eric Byrnes 128 23
5 Michael Bourn 121 25
T6 Shane Victorino 109 29
T6 R.J. Reynolds 109 29
8 Aaron Boone 107 30
9 Kaz Matsui 101 17
10 Jackie Robinson 97 30

21. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: November 23, 2009 at 02:51 PM (#3394428)

Through 2004, Carlos Beltran was at 192sb, 23cs for his career.

22. Neal Traven Posted: November 24, 2009 at 04:35 AM (#3395267)

Beltran is now at 286-38 (88.3%). He's the all-time record holder in SB% for at least 300 attempts.

If you go higher in terms of attempts, Tim Raines at 84.7% is the all-time record holder for 400+ attempts. And 500+ and 600+ and 700+ and 800+ and 900+ ... his totals were 808-146.

If you go to 1000+, Rickey leads at 80.8%. However, only two of the four men with 1000 attempts played during the time period when CS were recorded. Brock is the other one.

23. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 24, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3396020)

FWIW, Fangraphs has a Szymborski interview.

24. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 25, 2009 at 03:03 PM (#3396485)

Wow, Andy Tracy is still kicking around!

25. Saberseams Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3396625)

there's a good chance Scott Mathieson will be in the Phils pen next year. A projection should probably be added for him.

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