Vlad, if you read this, you're going to shoot me, but when checking the Iwamura projection you asked about, what I didn't realize (until it was pointed out to me in the Rays thread) that the Iwamura projection was actually his 2009 projection.

At least McCutchen looks good.

Is Milledge a VG defender in LF and a FR defender in RF because of his arm? Is that 188 the number of throwing errors he's going to make?

That projection for Milledge is just an... ouch
his career OPS+ is 89, but then again he's gone 104, 92, 86...

I think this is make or break time for him.

There were a bunch of athletic guys who came up in recent years, all coming up at age 20-22, who just seemingly stalled out imediately for some reason:
Delmon Young,
Chris Young
Milledge
Melky Cabrera (whose "breakthrough was a 99 OPS+ at age 24- he posted 95 at age 21)
Jay Bruce (I know it's early... but that's what they said about Delmon and Chris Young)

I could almost put Ellsbury here to, Adam Jones has shown some improvement but is still kind of disappointing...

ok 2000-2009, 21 year old OFs with 300+ PAs:

ok 2000-2009, 22 year old OFs with 300+ PAs:




just a bunch of randomness really

Pittsburgh could surprise a bit simply because they have so many players that are going to get playing time that are in that age 26-29 sweet spot, with McCutcheon and Milledge being the ones younger and Iwamura still just 31.

Doubt they will pitch enough to contend, but I can easily see this team pushing both their OPS+ and ERA+ a tad over 90

JPWF13: That can happen when a young, athletic player who's still sort of raw breaks into the majors and hits well off the bat, but ultimately, pitchers figure out how to pitch to him and he never really adjusts. In a way, it's actually better when a player like that comes in and stinks up the joint (a la Carlos Gonzalez in 2008) rather than hitting fairly well, but nothing spectacular (Bruce, Chris Young.) It's a lot easier to get a player's attention when he's slugging .361 than when he's slugging .467.

Also, I'm at a loss for how you failed to mention Jeff Francouer on the list of "young athletic OFs who stalled out immediately for some reason," though in Francoeur's case we all know the reason.

Clement's projection is surprisingly OK. Will he be playing somewhere in Pittsburgh next year?

Charlie Morton 26 4.12
Paul Maholm* 28 4.34
Zach Duke* 27 4.76
Kevin Hart 27 4.83
Jeff Karstens 27 4.87
Daniel McCutchen 27 4.99
Ross Ohlendorf 27 5.03
Brad Lincoln 25 5.14
Eric Hacker 27 5.19
Bobby Livingston* 27 5.22

Boy, it's going to be hard to tell those guys apart. Do the Pirates have a single rotation candidate who isn't a white guy between 25 and 28 years old? I think Maholm is the only one who isn't a control pitcher, too.

Donald "Bob Veale" Veal has been getting great reviews in the AFL.

This team is starting to look surprisingly un-terrible.

Brian Myrow, huh?

AR! MATEYS!

Huh, I had never heard of Garrett Jones and it turns it he put up a .938 OPS last year. Of course, that far outpaces anything he ever did in the minors...

That LaRoche projection is pretty ouch as well. It might be the wishful thinking of the fan in me, but I like both he and Milledge as breakout candidates this year. But even if they don't break out, I'd be willing to put a lot of money on them both breaking .400 slugging.

That LaRoche projection is pretty ouch as well. It might be the wishful thinking of the fan in me, but I like both he and Milledge as breakout candidates this year. But even if they don't break out, I'd be willing to put a lot of money on them both breaking .400 slugging.

I could see Milledge, but I think LaRoche is permanently damaged goods. It's a shame, but it looks like he went the route of Willie Greene (immense talent derailed by a lingering hand/wrist injury).

I dearly hope Capps makes its back to something approaching that projection. I made the grievous error of signing him to a 3 year contract and now I'm stuck with him for two more seasons... absent a trade to the AL (please... please... please).

This team is starting to look surprisingly un-terrible.

Really? McCutcheon and Doumit are the only two starters projected to be above-average for their position and not by huge margins. They have zero depth position-wise except in an unending array of AAAA 1B and Neil Walker. They don't have a SS or an LF. If the rotation's healthy, it's still a bad rotation and that's got to be one of the worst bullpen projections out there.

This is what I don't like about the Pirates' plan. They've traded away 10 starting position players, a couple starting pitchers and a couple of relievers in the last 1.5 seasons. None of those guys were great ... but look at those projections. Other than possibly Tabata and Alderson, did they get anybody in all those trades who has a legit shot at being part of the "next good Pirates team"? At best you have a collection of players entering their prime years whose upside is "league average" and their projection is "probably won't suck." Guys like Jones, Clement, Pearce, Milledge, Moss -- guys who haven't established themselves in the majors by age 25-26 and who don't project well -- are generally lucky if they're still playing past 30. (Pitchers admittedly are different and maybe somebody like Morton will put together a Suppan-like string of seasons.)

I know you can still make a case for trading away mediocre, pricier players for sub-mediocre, cheaper players with the chance a couple will turn out mediocre or better ... but the Pirate strategy is not a recipe for on-field success. Any success they have 5+ years from now will be the result of their drafting over the last few and next few years and maybe getting back some legitimately good prospects for Doumit or whoever.

Boy, it's going to be hard to tell those guys apart. Do the Pirates have a single rotation candidate who isn't a white guy between 25 and 28 years old? I think Maholm is the only one who isn't a control pitcher, too.

I dunno, isn't it a good thing to have young pitching? None of the Pirates arms is really young but they are all on the younger side, that is a good thing no?
As for white guys, well... they are major league pitchers. If they are not Latin signees they are hugely likely to be white.

I think Maholm is the only one who isn't a control pitcher, too.

Maholm IS actually a control pitcher I believe.
Actually I think you are pretty backwards with your comment. Most of those guys the Pirates have are raw stuff projects.
Morton has been a raw, projectable low/mid 90s fastball and plus curveball guy for years now who did not always throw strikes.
Ross Ohlendorf has hit 96, 97.
Kevin Hart has been a semi-prospect basically because he can reach back and get his FB to 95.
Lincoln throws strikes but he was a low/mid 90s fastball guy in college, unless TJ surgery took that away from him.
I remember McCutchen tossing 05 out of the pen in college too, but maybe he is a control guy nowadays as a starter.

Walt, I personally think you're underestimating the talent the Pirates have accumulated with their recent slew of trades, but for the sake of argument, I'll grant your point. But the question then is: what's the better plan? I mean, what strategy, other than the current one, is the recipe for success for a team like the Pirates? From my perspective, it seems like this plan was the only sensible one available.

"Vlad, if you read this, you're going to shoot me, but when checking the Iwamura projection you asked about, what I didn't realize (until it was pointed out to me in the Rays thread) that the Iwamura projection was actually his 2009 projection."

Hey, it happens. If I weren't willing to put up with the occasional transcription error, I could always get off my ass and devise my own projection system.

I should probably just stop asking questions about system mechanics. The last time I did it, I think I accidentally got MGL fired from a consulting gig. He had posted some projection for Craig Wilson that looked off to me, and when I asked him about it, it turned out that he'd forgotten to include Wilson's HBPs in the projection, at a time when Wilson was averaging 20+ per 162. And he'd already turned the errant projection in to his employer.

"Clement's projection is surprisingly OK. Will he be playing somewhere in Pittsburgh next year?"

His knees supposedly can't handle a regular gig behind the plate, so they've been working on teaching him to play first base. Barring any acquisitions, he and Pearce are probably in line to battle for 1B, and might end up as a platoon. That said, I think they'll look at signing an OF this offseason, which would shift Jones to 1B.

"I could see Milledge, but I think LaRoche is permanently damaged goods. It's a shame, but it looks like he went the route of Willie Greene (immense talent derailed by a lingering hand/wrist injury)."

Remember, ZiPS doesn't have any idea that he was playing hurt in 2008, and the translation on that line is awful. His 2009 ZiPS, which relied on it even more heavily, was .232/.325/.363.

Really? McCutcheon and Doumit are the only two starters projected to be above-average for their position and not by huge margins. They have zero depth position-wise except in an unending array of AAAA 1B and Neil Walker. They don't have a SS or an LF. If the rotation's healthy, it's still a bad rotation and that's got to be one of the worst bullpen projections out there.

They've got a ton of averagish to just below looking starting pitchers and odds are some of them will break out.

Tabata, Milledge, Alvarez, LaRoche and Clement were all big time prospects, and I don't think it's too late for any or all of them to reach their potential.

Who cares about the bullpen? Figure that out when you have a good team in place elsewhere.

I'm not saying they'll be competitive this year, but they actually seem to be assembling some talent.

Plus, they've got $0 committed to anyone long-term. $17.625M committed in 2010, $13,500 in 2011 (no that's not a typo).
Any guys that develop they should be able to lock up long term. Plus, they should be able to spend on amateur bonuses and, eventually, some FAs when they get competitive.

I mean, what strategy, other than the current one, is the recipe for success for a team like the Pirates?

Drafting premium talent in the early rounds - which they did with Alvarez and McCutchen but basically haven't done otherwise. If they'd drafted Wieters or Heyward when they had the chance, we might be singing a different tune. We'll see what they do this year.

They don't have a SS

despite drafting a ton of them over the years.

-- MWE

Tabata, Milledge, Alvarez, LaRoche and Clement were all big time prospects, and I don't think it's too late for any or all of them to reach their potential.

Alvarez is the only one I'd put any stock in, at this stage. And none of them is likely to develop into a middle-of-the-order power bat.

The Pirates' track record in player development (not just drafting) has been just awful - that's one area that didn't get a lot of attention in the Littlefield years and which I'm not sure is getting the right amount of attention now.

-- MWE

"Other than possibly Tabata and Alderson, did they get anybody in all those trades who has a legit shot at being part of the "next good Pirates team"?"

Well, there's Morton, who has the best 2010 projection among the team's starters. And even if LaRoche doesn't move forward one iota from here on out, he was good for 2.5 WAR last year. And of course, a lot of the players they acquired in those trades are too far from the majors for ZiPS to reasonably project, so they aren't listed in the chart above.

If you're saying that the deals didn't bring back a lot of future stars, that's true, but who's going to give up a future star for Jack Wilson? And if you want to criticize the system depth, you may want to re-familiarize yourself with exactly how shallow the system was when Huntington took over. The team's 2008 ZiPS page isn't a bad place to start - how many viable 2010 options are on that list? And here is Sickels's 2008 list of the team's top prospects - how many of those guys have any chance of developing into significant contributors?

"despite drafting a ton of them over the years."

At least we have a few SS prospects now. I'm cautiously optimistic about D'Arnaud, and I'm very curious to see how Cunningham looks coming back this year.

Myrow: poor man's Dave Magadan. In an alternate universe (smaller bullpens?), could have had a 10-year career. Or never been signed at all (started in indy ball).

SS: I, for one, believed in Lillibridge - oops.

The Pirates' track record in player development (not just drafting) has been just awful - that's one area that didn't get a lot of attention in the Littlefield years and which I'm not sure is getting the right amount of attention now.

What do you suggest that they do?

Obviously, you can't blame Huntington for Littlefield's refusal to draft top talent, and I think it's too early to make a judgment about either Huntington's regime's player development skills or the #4 pick of Sanchez this year. I think we can all agree that the 2010 Pirates are bad, but I faill to see that as conclusive proof that the current FO's plan isn't solid.

If you were extremely optimistic, you could come up with a scenario in which the Pirates win the Central next year.

whatever happened to the Pirates farm system? At least historically they had one of the best, if not the best. Not sure if that was still true in the 80s or whenever I lost interest in this team, or whether it was more a historical factoid... Do farm systems even mean as much anymore in this day of free agency/large market teams?

What else to do?

Before I even try to answer that, let me try to explain some of the things that concern me about this plan:

1. What the Pirates have done is nearly unprecedented in baseball history. Over the course of 1.5 seasons, they traded nearly their entire opening day 2008 lineup (Doumit remains but they did trade Paulinho) plus Nyjer Morgan and a couple of starters and relievers. It's true, that 2008 lineup wasn't gonna win. It's true that, other than possibly Bay, none of them were "stars". It's true that, other than possibly McLouth, none of them were going to be part of the "next good Pirates team". But it's also true that lineup was full of league-average-ish guys, starting ML quality guys like LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, Nady and McLouth. The only player you'd point to and say "he probably wouldn't start for anybody else except maybe the Royals, etc." was Bautista.

It's one thing to trade off a couple guys in 2008 and a couple more in 2009. It's another thing to trade away half of your ML roster including every ML quality player you have in 18 months.

2. And if you're gonna do that, you damn well better bring back enough talent that you have nearly guaranteed that your team 3+ years from now will be a lot better than it would be otherwise.

Here's where we might have some disagreement. I'm not a prospect hound and maybe some of the really young guys they got are quite talented. (Of course I do know that it's quite rare for talented 19-year-olds to have any substantial impact in the majors though). But it appears that they mostly got back guys who, if you're lucky, will be exactly the sort of league-average-ish blah that you just traded away. Like I said, Alderson was a nice pickup, he could be genuinely good. Tabata was a reasonable roll of the dice -- everyone seems to agree he's got raw talent -- but it's not looking like it will pay off. But 1.5 legit prospects for 14+ ML players ... not a good return.

3. I believe teams do have a responsibility to put their "best" ML team on the field. Obviously teams need to balance off their responsibility to put their "best" team on the field 3-5 years from now vs. putting the "best" one out there today. Obviously there's no problem with "let's trade half a season of LaRoche for something." But these trades, as a whole, don't seem to have improved the 2012-2014 Pirates to any extent to me. The 2012-14 Pirates might be a lot better than the 2008-9 Pirates, but that will have little/nothing to do with these trades.

So, what should they have done differently? I wouldn't have traded McLouth. An OF of McLouth, McCutcheon and Jones is, y'know, reasonably young, cheap and productive. They needed to get more for Bay (I've never really been a LaRoche believer). They pretty much gave away Snell and Gorzelanny -- neither was particularly worth holding onto but they're still 5th/6th starter quality. Guys like Bautista and Paulinho are perfectly decent bench players and depth is one of the major reasons that teams like the Pirates win 65 instead of 70 (OK, that's probably an overestimate).

I've long been of the opinion that a lot of folks on Primer: (1) under-rate the value of average ML players; (2) over-rate the value of top prospects; and (3) GREATLY over-rate the value of middling prospects. The Pirates will be fairly lucky if they get a player as good (and cost-controlled) as Nate McLouth out of trading away an entire lineup plus. And chances are the folks in favor of the McLouth trade will, 4-5 years from now, be saying the Pirates might as well trade this new McLouth because he's not that good and he's not gonna be part of their next good team and they might as well get 3 middling prospects for him ... in hopes that one of those prospects might turn out to be as good as the new McLouth.

So, to sum up: I agree that, when all is said and done about the 2010-2011 Pirates, it won't really have mattered if they'd held onto some of those guys. But I'm also of the opinion that, when all is said and done about the 2012-2014 Pirates, it won't really have mattered that they traded away all those guys. And chances are those 2012-14 Pirates are going to find themselves in the same boat as the 2008-9 Pirates -- some decent players approaching FA who they need to get something for before they're gone. So, as a strategy, what's really to like?

It's not "that idiot Huntington missed this obvious magic bullet over here". That's especially true given the mess he was left with. There is no magic bullet. The key is drafting, signing, developing ... and making a few good trades. I don't see any genuinely good trades here other than Sanchez-Alderson (which still might not work out) -- no real disasters either.

My gripes are more (1) the wide acceptance that this is a good strategy simply because it's trading average MLers for "prospects" and (2) that if this strategy becomes widespread -- that if you aren't going to compete for a playoff spot in the next two years, you trade away your entire lineup (including good/average, young cost-controlled guys) for whatever you can get -- it will be very bad for baseball.

And before anyone brings up the famed example of the 97 Marlins fire sale:

Charles Johnson and Gary Sheffield for Preston Wilson
Moises Alou for nothing
Devon White for nothing
Robb Nen for nothing
Kevin Brown for Derrek Lee
Dennis Cook for nothing
Al Leiter for AJ Burnett
Kurt Abbott for nothing

That was a LOT more talent traded away and still Lee and Burnett (and Wilson became part of Pierre) were the only pieces that contributed to the 2003 Marlins championship. The 2003 Marlins were built by good drafting, a couple of later trades (Yarnall for Lowell, a prospect trade, and Mantei for Penny), and a few smart FA signings.

Alderson could be Burnett I suppose but I don't see a Derrek Lee (who was ML-ready to boot) in what the Pirates got back. And of course if Alderson does become Burnett, there's a very good chance the Pirates are gonna be in the same spot with him circa 2014 as they were with Nate McLouth.

They've got a ton of averagish to just below looking starting pitchers and odds are some of them will break out.

No, they've got a "ton" of replacement-level 6th starters. Their #3 starter (I suspect they think of Duke as their #1) projects to an 89 ERA+ ... that's really rather awful. The chances of one of these guys putting up a 100 ERA+ is no better than the chances of them putting up a 70 or Morton putting up an 85. None of them have the sort of K-rate that you look for in a "break out" candidate. You're looking at a bunch of guys out of which you might get a couple guys who can put up a handful of 95-100 ERA+ BIP-pitcher type seasons.

This current collection of Pirate starters doesn't look appreciably different then the collection they had a few years ago -- in with Morton and Ohlendorf, out with Snell and Gorzelanny. The 2005 Pirates had Wells, Redman, Fogg (all happily sitting in the mid-80s ERA+), Dave Williams (96!), the genuine prospect Ollie Perez, Duke, Snell, Maholm, Gorzelanny and the best 81 innings of Ryan Vogelsong's career. Or look at the 2008 page Vlad linked and you've got Gorzelanny and Snell a bit above-average, Duke and Maholm just below, Bullington at about a 90 ERA+, Morris and Chacon just above that, even JvBS was projected to about an 80 ERA+. They've still got a bunch of guys who don't strike anybody out, have bad K/BB ratios and project to 5th/6th starter range.

Tabata, Milledge, Alvarez, LaRoche and Clement were all big time prospects, and I don't think it's too late for any or all of them to reach their potential.

Clement was a big-time prospect because he was a C. Folks seem to agree he can't play there anymore and so, even if he reaches his potential, he's Adam LaRoche. Anyway, yes, there's a decent chance one of these guys pays off (i.e. actually becomes an above-average player) -- I'd say there's almost no chance of all of them paying off but no biggie. Now we'll leave Alvarez aside since he was a draftee and doesn't relate to the strategy behind all these trades. So what you've got is Nady, Bay, Morgan and Wilson for hopefully one guy who falls somewhere between Nady and Bay and maybe one guy in the Morgan-Nady range. And if that does pay off, then around 2013-14 (or sooner in LaRoche's case) you'll be in the same position with that good player as you just were with McLouth. That doesn't look like any sort of substantial progress to me.

"whatever happened to the Pirates farm system? At least historically they had one of the best, if not the best."

All but one of the scouting directors since the Syd Thrift era have been terrible (Mickey White is the exception). Also, the team drastically cut the draft budget under Littlefield, with predictable results, and totally stopped spending on foreign prospects, with equally predictable results.

In a more historical sense, it didn't help that Howie Haak got old and retired.

SS: I, for one, believed in Lillibridge - oops.

From the little of Lillibridge I saw this year, he looked like he can handle just about any position defensively. He was easily the fastest player who saw time in a White Sox uniform this year. The problem, of course, is that he can't hit a lick. That and he looks like a 15-year old boy. I imagine he'll be carded until he's at least 40.

What do you suggest that they do?

Get guys who have a background in player development into the organization, and standardize instruction at all levels so that everyone teaches the same way. Spend some frickin' money on the minor league facilities. Establish GOOD working relationships with the affiliates so that they will support what you are trying to do.

I'm not saying that the Pirates HAVEN'T tried to do this, but the fact that (a) Hickory wanted out of the relationship and (b) Lynchburg wanted out of the relationship and (c) Altoona isn't all that happy with the relationship, although they aren't likely to ask out of it, doesn't speak well for what they have done.

-- MWE

Also, I'm at a loss for how you failed to mention Jeff Francouer on the list of "young athletic OFs who stalled out immediately for some reason,"

I thought of him, but the guys I named all significantly outhit him in the minors, he's a different case imho, he wasn't that good, his initial 50-60 mLB games were flukish, after that he started matching his MLEs- only a little better.

The Delmons, Milledges's, Chris Youngs, Adam Joneses, have all failed to match their MLEs AND most have regressed from that point on.

Just wanted to add that Pedro Alvarez's projection looks kind of low to me.

"They needed to get more for Bay (I've never really been a LaRoche believer)."

Which is nice, but nobody was offering more. Tampa's best package at the deadline was Niemann and Brignac, and Florida was trying to center theirs on Jeremy Hermida. And Bay's value wasn't exactly going up...

"So, what should they have done differently? I wouldn't have traded McLouth."

OK. As the extension of this, who would you have used in the rotation instead of Morton, a.k.a. the best pitcher currently on staff?

"They pretty much gave away Snell and Gorzelanny -- neither was particularly worth holding onto but they're still 5th/6th starter quality."

Snell is due $4.25M next year, and he demoted himself to AAA in-season rather than keep pitching for the team. Hanging onto him wasn't an option. Gorzelanny was traded for a guy that ZiPS is projecting as being good for a 4.83 in the rotation next year, so if you believe the projection, that's a fifth starter for a fifth starter.

Snell is due $4.25M next year, and he demoted himself to AAA in-season rather than keep pitching for the team.

Which was a truly stunning event. I'd never heard of a player before requesting that he be demoted because he didn't want to stay on the major league squad.

Which was a truly stunning event. I'd never heard of a player before requesting that he be demoted because he didn't want to stay on the major league squad.

Well, you could understand if it was a Met, fearing for his physical well-being.

Didn't Khalil Greene do that because he thought he sucked so much that he was hurting the team?

Snell is due $4.25M next year, and he demoted himself to AAA in-season rather than keep pitching for the team.

I'm still of the opinion that the Pirates mishandled this situation, and that while Snell's reaction was immature that the team has only itself to blame for what happened.

-- MWE

I've long been of the opinion that a lot of folks on Primer: (1) under-rate the value of average ML players; (2) over-rate the value of top prospects; and (3) GREATLY over-rate the value of middling prospects. The Pirates will be fairly lucky if they get a player as good (and cost-controlled) as Nate McLouth out of trading away an entire lineup plus. And chances are the folks in favor of the McLouth trade will, 4-5 years from now, be saying the Pirates might as well trade this new McLouth because he's not that good and he's not gonna be part of their next good team and they might as well get 3 middling prospects for him ... in hopes that one of those prospects might turn out to be as good as the new McLouth.

If I'm following you here, and please correct me if I'm not, it's not the overrating of middling prospects that peeves you so much as conflating or ignoring the difference in value between developing your own middling prospects and acquiring them?

Get guys who have a background in player development into the organization
What do they have now (I'm serious)? Are they not there, are they there but not effective, is it the people you're drafting (we've already covered the international side)?
and standardize instruction at all levels so that everyone teaches the same way.
Do they not do this?
I'm not convinced that this is a prerequisite, but do think it's a good idea to have a "Pirate Way", though you do run the risk of not developing some guys that way...
Spend some frickin' money on the minor league facilities.
Same sort of questions. Do we know that they don't? (I've been under the impression that they don't - I'm sure you know.)
Establish GOOD working relationships with the affiliates so that they will support what you are trying to do.
I *did* know about this - they've been short-sighted, no doubt.

but the fact that (a) Hickory wanted out of the relationship and (b) Lynchburg wanted out of the relationship and (c) Altoona isn't all that happy with the relationship, although they aren't likely to ask out of it, doesn't speak well for what they have done.

Do you mind elaborating on this? As far as I'm aware, both the Hickory/WV and Lynchburg/Bradenton moves were done primarily out of convenience - Charleston is much closer to Pittsburgh than Hickory, and Bradenton shares a city with the team's largest minor league complex. And Chuck Greenberg keeps extending Altoona's contract with the Pirates, so I really am curious as to what you mean here.

I don't understand Mike and Walt's gripes. It's not like the Pirates aren't also drafting and signing young talent or putting money into amateur and international scouting. I don't know how anyone is in a position to judge, based on two years, how well or poorly the Pirates are developing the in-house talent. Maybe you have some intimate knowledge of this, Mike? If so, I'd be really interested in hearing about it.

I can understand not liking a major league team to trade away all of its decent veterans, but I don't hear a better idea for the franchise, other than "sign and develop" (not mutually exclusive with trading) and "get better players in trade" (yeah, of course, but good luck with that). McLouth is a good example. The news I hear is that he was being a baby about being asked to switch to a corner spot. What are the Pirates supposed to do about that? Or Snell being a baby about everything? I mean, you basically have to trade those guys, and what they got back in both instances seems very fair to me (if not a plus for the Pirates). You could point out that it's alarmingly curious that the Pirates tend to have more of these types of issues with players and agents than the average team (Alvarez, Sano, Hinske, McLouth, Snell), but there's really nothing beyond the circumstantial to suggest that the Pirates are systematically to blame for all that stuff.

On a related note, I don't know if people overrate prospects or what, but it seems like a lot of people have started underrating the type of player who's not a prospect but still extremely talented. So on one hand you have guys like Milledge, LaRoche, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, B.J. Upton, etc., who are no longer prospects and have disappointed in the majors but who still have the prospect pedigree and are still very young. On the other hand, you have guys like Clement, Morton, etc. who are too old to be good prospects in the traditional sense, but who are performing well in the minors. In both cases, it seems like that type of player is underrated, and I don't mind the Pirates taking chances on that type of guy. They seem to me to be just as good as the chances on a younger prospect, except that where the upside on a younger guy might be "hall-of-famer," the upside on guys like Milledge and Clement might be "a couple of all-star seasons in his prime." I'll take that upside from a guy who's already an average-ish major leaguer (LaRoche, Morton) or close to it (Moss, Clement, Milledge).

and standardize instruction at all levels so that everyone teaches the same way.
Do they not do this?
I'm not convinced that this is a prerequisite, but do think it's a good idea to have a "Pirate Way", though you do run the risk of not developing some guys that way...

As seen in this story, there were serious rebellions at the minor-league level because Huntington's new "pitching coordinator" Troy Buckley and "director of player development" Kyle Stark were making the seemingly unprecedented move of trying to standardize instruction at all levels so that everyone taught the same way.

Apparently the trouble came when old-school coaches were offended because seemingly unqualified young guys were brought in to the individual teams to make sure the new policies got implemented.

But I guess no matter what the Pirates will do they will be criticized for not doing the opposite, until they win major-league games.

I can understand not liking a major league team to trade away all of its decent veterans

It's not trading away decent veterans, it's trading away an entire starting lineup and half an entire roster in 18 months without receiving tons in return, without seriously upgrading your chances of winning 3-5 years from now.

Do folks here realize that, from July 1 on, the Pirates were 26-58? They were outscored by 1.6 runs a game. Their 2nd half line (for convenience) was 241/309/376 ... and 288/352/464 on the other side. They are currently as bad or worse than the Nationals ... and I don't think the Pirates have anyone as good as Ryan Z, Strasburg or, if he gets healthy, Jordan Z (not to mention the fun Adam Dunn).

McLouth is a good example. The news I hear is that he was being a baby about being asked to switch to a corner spot. What are the Pirates supposed to do about that?

Write his name in the lineup in LF or RF. He'll get used to it.

So on one hand you have guys like Milledge, LaRoche, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, B.J. Upton, etc., who are no longer prospects and have disappointed in the majors but who still have the prospect pedigree and are still very young.

But Milledge and LaRoche aren't "very young" anymore. LaRoche is 26, Milledge is 25. The "breakout" window is pretty much closed.

On the other hand, you have guys like Clement, Morton, etc. who are too old to be good prospects in the traditional sense, but who are performing well in the minors.

Clement's career minor-league OPS is 865, 860 in over 1600 AAA PAs. Morton has had a good 150 IP over the last 2 minor-league seasons but his career minor-league WHIP is 1.49 and his ERA is 4.29. None of those are really "good" performances.

I'll take that upside from a guy who's already an average-ish major leaguer (LaRoche, Morton) or close to it (Moss, Clement, Milledge).

I don't see any more upside for LaRoche -- league average is as good as he's gonna get. Pitchers are weird so I won't write off Morton. If the projection is correct, then Clement is roughly a league-average 1B. But Moss and Milledge aren't close to average, they're both 20-25 points of OPS+ short of average for their positions -- that's a lot.

I just don't know what to say. This is possibly the worst team in the majors right now, they don't have a crop of near-ML-ready prospects and, near as I can tell, aren't stocked with heaps of young talent that would give you hope that things will be substantially better 4-5 years from now. At best they traded away a dozen or so wins over 2009-10 for a dozen or so wins over 2011-2012. I just don't see that as an important shift. In the long run, it doesn't matter one way or the other -- which means I don't see why this should be considered a good strategy.

Right, Walt, but so what to do instead then, though? Which is where your criticism hits a dead end. The benefit of making these trades is to put that extra dozen or so wins in place for the future, when a re-vamped system will hopefully begin producing a few elite talents and when the lack of financial commitments will make adding the extra FA pieces feasible. Seems like a fine plan to me. And I think we're talking past one another on the underrated old youngsters thing.

A more reasonably likely explanation for Huntington's purge is that ownership isn't giving him a dime more than his predecessors had. If Huntington wants to implement his ideas about being active internationally and drafting top talent then that cash has to come from somewhere. Its not as if revenues can fall much more than they have if the major league product suffers for it in the short term.

legit shot at being part of the "next good Pirates team"?

This prompted me to look at the '93 Pirate roster, to see who among them we might have thought could be part of the "next good Pirates team," without knowing that that "good team" would be still be unforeseeable 17 years later. Hm...Midre Cummings?

EDIT: I take that back...one might've guessed Al Martin (118 OPS+, age 25) and Jay Bell (124 OPS+, age 27). Man, the Pirates have sucked for a long time--the last time they were any good was before Al Martin's career "peak."

"But Moss and Milledge aren't close to average, they're both 20-25 points of OPS+ short of average for their positions -- that's a lot."

Both have also been well-above-average defenders for the Pirates, which helps.

This is possibly the worst team in the majors right now

Go look at the ZiPS projections for the Royals when you have a chance.

Ohlendorf's projections seem a little on the low side to me. Towards the end of last season he really started to put it together. I'm pretty sure it had something to do with his arm slot, which led to a drop in ERA of like 1.50 points.
Anyone else think he might be pretty good next season?

Dan, do you know how to get in contact with the jewelry maker that sponsored your projections? I might need a custom trinket made at some point. Why is a jewelry maker sponsoring baseball projections anyway?

Why is a jewelry maker sponsoring baseball projections anyway?

Baseball fans are typically white males with discretionary income. White males with discretionary income also frequently have girlfriends and wives.

So support my sponsors or I'll find out what team you root for and make their projections suck! Royal fans, click on the ad anyway.

When are more projections coming out Dan? Its been over a week since the Pirates.

McCutchen will have another good year but i think that he will hit more around .290

Still think Milledge has a chance to break out. He did have a hand injury last year. He also struggled when the Nats put him at top of the order and messed with his approach at the plate. Discipline at the plate will probably always be an issue. Power should increase as hand will be fully healed. I say 25 HRs- .280, 340. .480

I suppose I can wait until the upcoming full release - but what say you about Brandon Jones, Dan? (Traded b/w the Pirates and Braves efforts.)

Till it's time for his coming out, Missed Brandon Jones
Round and round and round

Most of us love you Zim, but that's a real groaner.