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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

The 2009 edition of the Padres improved on the 2008 team by a dozen wins, though you wouldn't know it given that all the attention was on the Jake Peavy Sweepstakes. 2010 may very well be a repeat, with Adrian Gonzalez's eventual destination being the primary target of media attention.

Improvement aside, the Padres are still a team with serious issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the next couple of years. The messy Moores divorce really threw the team into financial turmoil, which will continue until the divorce is finally settled and Jeff Moorad's group completes the sale of the team. As an example of just what a mess the whole situation is, Moorad's target date for completing the transition is in the 2012-2013 time frame.

It's not great news for Padres fans, but the team will be very resistant towards any kind of investment in the team, even good investments.

So what do the Padres do? Pretty much all they can do is try to trade well to keep enough talent coming-through the organization until such time as they're no longer a zombie team. A lot of the lesser teams at least have the option at aggressively trying some new things, but the Pads are going to be cheap at pretty much every level the next couple of years.

On the plus side, the team does have a good number of non-terrible relief arms. The pitching was very disappointing this season, but with a little luck, they could cobble something respectable together.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Adrian Gonzalez*         1b  28  .268  .365  .507 160 594 101 159 33  2 35 102  88 138  0  1   143 
Kyle Blanks              1b  23  .246  .334  .406 134 468  62 115 20  2 17  66  52 145  2  2   108 
Oscar Salazar            lf  32  .271  .318  .426 128 432  54 117 27  2 12  65  31  65  3  2   108 
Kevin Kouzmanoff         3b  28  .257  .305  .426 140 530  59 136 29  2 19  82  28 117  1  0   104 
Chase Headley#           lf  26  .252  .327  .383 146 540  67 136 31  2 12  61  55 159  6  2   100 
Brian Giles*             rf  39  .251  .340  .367  82 311  39  78 17  2  5  34  42  41  1  1   100 
Will Venable*            cf  27  .249  .309  .385 144 527  70 131 22  4 14  60  41 140  9  2    95 
Val Pascucci             1b  31  .217  .318  .368 124 437  54  95 19  1 15  59  61 150  3  1    94 
James Darnell            3b  23  .232  .326  .366 132 505  63 117 26  3 12  58  70 134  5  6    96 
Chad Huffman             lf  25  .233  .314  .364 132 489  63 114 24  2 12  58  50 133  3  3    91 
David Eckstein           2b  35  .264  .325  .335 103 382  48 101 19  1  2  31  27  38  4  1    87 
Eric Sogard*             2b  24  .254  .320  .352 126 520  81 132 27  3  6  55  51  77  8  6    90 
Logan Forsythe           3b  23  .218  .331  .314 136 522  73 114 18  4  8  48  82 159  7  2    84 
Anthony Gwynn*           cf  27  .258  .323  .321 132 445  68 115 14  4  2  29  42  80 18  6    83 
Craig Stansberry         3b  28  .239  .316  .346 117 422  57 101 21  3  6  41  45  93  7  6    87 
Everth Cabrera#          ss  23  .243  .318  .328 120 461  70 112 20  5  3  35  47 125 36 12    83 
Danny Putnam*            lf  27  .230  .303  .358 104 374  44  86 19  1  9  51  35 101  4  3    86 
Nicholas Hundley         c   26  .230  .288  .370 101 365  38  84 19  1 10  47  29  98  2  1    87 
Henry Blanco             c   38  .237  .308  .342  56 152  17  36  7  0  3  11  16  38  0  0    86 
Kellen Kulbacki*         rf  24  .240  .306  .346  69 263  29  63 11  1  5  31  23  63  2  2    84 
Edgar Gonzalez           2b  32  .240  .304  .362 103 246  26  59 10  1  6  25  20  64  2  4    87 
Matt Antonelli           2b  25  .228  .311  .332 106 394  56  90 17  3  6  36  43  84  6  4    85 
Mike Baxter*             rf  25  .236  .301  .338 130 488  61 115 24  4  6  55  44 109  8  5    80 
Drew Macias*             cf  27  .228  .313  .321 138 448  60 102 20  2  6  43  52  98  6  6    80 
Russ Adams*              2b  29  .238  .297  .343 105 362  44  86 16  2  6  35  30  70  4  3    80 
Vince Sinisi*            rf  28  .247  .292  .336  72 259  26  64 12  1  3  24  16  50  2  1    77 
Cedric Hunter*           cf  22  .256  .289  .338 139 598  85 153 24  5  5  63  27  68  9  5    76 
Peter Ciofrone*          3b  26  .236  .300  .323 111 403  50  95 13  2  6  40  32  86  1  2    76 
Luis Durango#            lf  24  .244  .328  .286 129 475  80 116 13  2  1  27  58  93 23 12    76 
Mike Collns              c   25  .229  .299  .317  78 271  28  62 13  1  3  27  17  59  3  2    74 
Mitch Canham*            c   25  .227  .293  .320  97 375  42  85 16  2  5  45  34  90  5  2    73 
Brett Dowdy              2b  28  .234  .285  .316 103 380  45  89 15  2  4  24  24  75  7  4    70 
Sean Kazmar              ss  25  .229  .287  .303 125 432  49  99 18  1  4  44  33  87  7  3    67 
Yamid Haad               c   32  .212  .254  .304  56 184  16  39  8  0  3  14  10  48  1  1    57 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      
Gonzalez*               Av/88                                                   
Blanks                  Fr/124                          Fr/124          Fr/124  
Salazar                 Pr/102  Pr/123  Pr/136          Fr/102          Fr/102  
Kouzmanoff                              Av/89                                   
Headley#                                Av/106          Av/115                  
Giles*                                                                  Av/108  
Venable*                                                Vg/75   Fr/44   Vg/75   
Pascucci                Fr/133                          Fr/135          Fr/135  
Darnell                                 Fr/153                                  
Huffman                 Av/93                           Av/93           Av/93   
Eckstein                        Fr/56           Fr/125                          
Sogard*                         Av/142                                          
Forsythe                                Av/135                                  
Gwynn*                                                  Vg/154  Vg/154  Vg/154  
Stansberry                      Av/113  Fr/137  Fr/142                          
Cabrera#                        Av/140          Av/140                          
Putnam*                                                 Fr/114  Fr/114  Fr/114  
Hundley            Fr                                                           
Blanco             Vg                                                           
Kulbacki*                                               Fr/128          Fr/128  
Gonzalez                        Av/141  Av/141                                  
Antonelli                       Fr/131  Av/131                                  
Baxter*                 Av/84                           Av/84   Pr/101  Av/84   
Macias*                                                 Vg/99   Av/124  Vg/99   
Adams*                          Av/159  Av/159  Fr/191  Av/182          Av/182  
Sinisi*                 Fr/166                          Fr/166  Pr/180  Fr/166  
Hunter*                                                 Vg/101  Av/123          
Ciofrone*                               Fr/124          Fr/127          Fr/127  
Durango#                                                Vg/172  Vg/191          
Collins            Fr   Fr/119                                                  
Canham*            Pr                                                           
Dowdy                   Av/125  Fr/125  Av/125  Pr/125  Fr/125  Fr/125  Fr/125  
Kazmar                          Av/119          Fr/116                          
Haad               Fr                                                           

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3
GonzalezAdrian     1B   58%   30%    7%    3%    1%      OrtizDavid      PowellBoog      GentileJim
SalazarOscar       LF   10%   19%   21%   25%   25%         MeleSam        EnnisDel    ReynoldsCarl
BlanksKyle         1B    2%   15%   25%   41%   17%       MaasKevin   FielderPrince       LeeDerrek
KouzmanoffKevin    3B    9%   23%   31%   25%   12%     WiggintonTy       CoomerRon    HayesCharlie
HeadleyChase       LF    3%   15%   20%   30%   33%       CruzJacob     BigbieLarry       ScottLuke
GilesBrian         RF    2%   11%   17%   28%   41%     SurhoffB.J.   SlaughterEnos       WanerPaul
VenableWill        CF    9%   11%   27%   34%   19%   GeronimoCesar   DevereauxMike      WhiteDevon
PascucciVal        1B    1%    7%   11%   30%   51%   van BurkleoTy       TracyAndy    SexsonRichie
DarnellJames       3B    2%    7%   17%   35%   40%        EvansTom     HolleyBobby       HulettTim
EcksteinDavid      2B    2%    8%   16%   32%   42%      GantnerJim    TempleJohnny     RojasCookie
CabreraEverth      SS    7%   21%   38%   26%    8%   FletcherScott       UptonB.J.      ListachPat
SogardEric         2B    3%    6%   14%   30%   46%       OesterRon    TreadwayJeffCatalanottoFrank
HuffmanChad        LF    1%    2%    5%   18%   75%     JasterScott      MohrDustan     DuboisJason
GwynnTony          CF    1%    5%   19%   39%   35%    JohnsonLance    ThompsonMilt     SanchezAlex
StansberryCraig    3B    1%    3%    8%   24%   64%      FiniganJim   GonzalezEdgar      MoraMelvin
PutnamDanny        LF    0%    1%    3%   12%   84%    FreemanLaVel     LesherBrian   McMillonBilly
HundleyNick         C    2%   17%   29%   38%   14%       HayesBill       AcevesJon    HaselmanBill
BlancoHenry         C    4%   13%   30%   38%   15%    DifeliceMike    ParrishLance      GuerraMike
KulbackiKellen     RF    1%    2%    3%    6%   88%     PlattWhitey      BradyBrian       BellDerek
ForsytheLogan      3B    1%    2%    8%   28%   60%     BardenBrian       BerrySean       EdlerDave
GonzalezEdgar      2B    1%    2%    6%   22%   70%   O'RourkeFrank     NewhanDavid   DuncanMariano
AntonelliMatthew   2B    2%    3%    9%   27%   60%     BacaniDavid     BensonSteve GarrisonWebster
BaxterMike         RF    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%  KoslofskiKevin    LusaderScott      JonesChris
AdamsRuss          2B    3%    3%    7%   21%   67%       KraussTim     MalloyMarty       MartinStu
SinisiVince        RF    0%    1%    1%    4%   94%      SchulzJeff     WohlfordJim    PowellHosken
HunterCedric       CF    0%    0%    3%   21%   75%      RomeroAlex      KotsayMark   GallagherDave
MaciasDrew         CF    1%    1%    5%   22%   71%   AndersonBrady     ManningRick       PerezTimo
CiofronePeter      3B    0%    0%    1%    8%   90%     StrangeDoug       BerryMike      LyonsSteve
DurangoLuis        LF    0%    0%    0%    2%   98%    BrownDarrell       GwynnTony    LawtonMarcus
CanhamMitch         C    0%    2%    5%   27%   66%    CalvertChris      AusmusBrad    NewstromDoug
CollinsMike         C    0%    0%    3%   23%   74%      GirardiJoe      DempseyPat     BlancoHenry
DowdyBrett         2B    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%    BreedingMarv        LeggGreg     HayesJackie
KazmarSean         SS    0%    1%    5%   19%   74%      LunaHector  CabreraJolbert         ColeStu
HaadYamid           C    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%      MolinaJose      BordersPat    HundleyRandy

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
GonzalezAdrian        11%     35%     51%     53%      7%      0%     72%      0%
SalazarOscar          15%      4%      7%      6%      1%      0%      0%      0%
BlanksKyle             1%      5%      2%      2%      0%      0%      2%      0%
KouzmanoffKevin        4%      0%      7%      3%      1%      0%      6%      0%
HeadleyChase           3%      3%      0%      1%      2%      0%      0%      0%
GilesBrian             6%     13%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%
VenableWill            4%      2%      1%      2%      0%      2%      0%      0%
PascucciVal            0%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%
DarnellJames           1%      3%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%
EcksteinDavid         10%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
CabreraEverth          1%      2%      0%      0%      0%      7%      0%     82%
SogardEric             3%      1%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%
HuffmanChad            0%      1%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%
GwynnTony              5%      2%      0%      0%      0%      3%      0%      2%
StansberryCraig        1%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
PutnamDanny            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
HundleyNick            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
BlancoHenry            4%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
KulbackiKellen         4%      2%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%
ForsytheLogan          0%      6%      0%      0%      0%      2%      0%      0%
GonzalezEdgar          3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
AntonelliMatthew       0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
BaxterMike             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%
AdamsRuss              2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
SinisiVince            5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
HunterCedric           1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      5%      0%      0%
MaciasDrew             0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
CiofronePeter          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
DurangoLuis            1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     13%
CanhamMitch            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
CollinsMike            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
DowdyBrett             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
KazmarSean             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
HaadYamid              0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 
Chris Young               31   3.74   7   6  20  20   110.2   91   46  13   49   96  110 
Mat Latos                 22   3.92   6   6  19  17    82.2   80   36   7   31   58  105 
Kevin Correia             29   3.93  11  10  30  30   171.2  170   75  16   56  124  105 
Sean Gallagher            24   3.98   6   5  24  16    86.0   83   38   7   36   70  104 
Clayton Richard*          26   4.34   9  10  36  28   164.0  170   79  16   58   98   95 
Shawn Hill                29   4.46   2   2   7   7    38.1   43   19   3   11   23   93 
Aaron Poreda*             23   4.51   7   8  33  23   133.2  134   67  10   79   93   92 
Craig Italiano            23   4.67   5   7  37  17   108.0  107   56   9   68   86   89 
Wade LeBlanc*             25   4.73   8  12  32  29   156.0  158   82  24   57  113   87 
Tim Stauffer              28   4.89   6  10  29  22   134.1  150   73  16   49   84   84 
Steve Garrison*           23   4.90   3   5  16  15    75.1   82   41  11   26   43   84 
Josh Banks                27   4.96   7  11  32  23   152.1  173   84  21   43   82   83 
Will Inman                23   5.05   6  10  28  28   140.2  149   79  19   65   93   82 
Matthew Buschmann         26   5.06   6  10  31  24   138.2  156   78  18   53   79   82 
Ernesto Frieri            24   5.31   6  12  32  25   135.2  142   80  22   68   94   78 
Cesar Ramos*              26   5.49   6  12  25  22   121.1  144   74  16   54   63   75 
Josh Geer                 27   5.58   6  12  29  28   163.0  194  101  29   46   77   74 
Walter Silva              33   5.63   4   9  28  18   102.1  118   64  14   44   55   73 
Cesar Carrillo            26   5.84   3   8  19  19    94.0  110   61  13   50   44   71 
Michael Ekstrom           26   5.92   3   8  28  11    79.0  101   52  11   33   55   70 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 
Heath Bell                32   2.71   8   3  72   0    76.1   60   23   5   26   81  152 
Luke Gregerson            26   3.25   5   3  67   0    74.2   64   27   5   30   74  127 
Joe Thatcher*             28   3.33   5   3  70   0    67.2   61   25   5   24   69  124 
Mike Adams                31   3.43   2   2  51   0    57.2   50   22   5   21   54  120 
Jackson Quezada           23   3.68   2   2  29   0    29.1   27   12   2   12   24  112 
Mark Worrell              27   4.00   3   2  38   0    45.0   42   20   4   21   39  103 
Eulogio de la Cruz        26   4.06   7   7  44  13   108.2  101   49   8   59   75  102 
Edward Mujica             26   4.08   3   3  61   1    79.1   80   36  10   19   65  101 
Luis Perdomo              26   4.10   3   3  50   0    68.0   59   31   9   36   61  101 
Adam Russell              27   4.17   4   4  56   0    73.1   71   34   6   34   53   99 
Rocky Cherry              30   4.29   2   2  51   1    71.1   71   34   6   35   48   96 
Ryan Webb                 24   4.54   4   5  63   1    75.1   81   38   7   30   50   91 
Chris Britton             27   4.70   2   3  30   0    44.0   47   23   6   15   27   88 
Jonathan Ellis            27   5.11   4   7  57   0    68.2   72   39   8   40   47   81 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3
BellHeath          RP       87%   12%    1%      LockwoodSkip       ShieldsScot       GossageRich
GregersonLuke      RP       62%   36%    3%         WardDuane    HernandezBuddy        AdamsTerry
ThatcherJoe        RP       51%   43%    7%   HernandezWillie   AssenmacherPaul         PlesacDan
AdamsMike          RP       51%   39%   10%        GreggKevin       FrasorJason      LeskanicCurt
QuezadaJackson     RP       37%   43%   20%     PenaAlejandro         InnisJeff        NealBlaine
YoungChris         SP       56%   38%    6%       GardnerMark      PersonRobert     MartinezRamon
LatosMatthew       SP       45%   45%   10%   GonzalezEnrique        MadsonRyan         EatonAdam
CorreiaKevin       SP       37%   55%    7%   StottlemyreTodd        BensonKris      JohnsonJason
GallagherSean      SP       37%   48%   15%           GottJim        GaudinChad        HarrisGreg
WorrellMark        RP       25%   44%   31%       BulgerJason      SerranoJimmy  FredricksonScott
de la CruzEulogio  RP       15%   55%   30%       CornellJeff        StuperJohn         MillsAlan
BurkeGreg          RP       19%   55%   26%        GardnerLee      SchmackBrian  PichardoHipolito
MujicaEdward       RP       17%   54%   29%      MelendezJose         BostHeath      KrawczykJack
PerdomoLuis        RP       13%   49%   38%     HedrickJustin         MeyerJack         JonesJeff
RussellAdam        RP       11%   55%   34%    DehoyosGabriel     ShepherdKeith         FioreTony
CherryRocky        RP        8%   43%   49%      BumsteadMike         FioreTony        GwynMarcus
RichardClayton     SP       15%   64%   21%    SauerbeckScott          OttoDave         McGrawTom
HillShawn          SP       30%   36%   34%         HoltChris     EricksonScott        MorganMike
PoredaAaron        SP       10%   53%   38%      WilsonTrevor        ClarkBryan     AndersonJimmy
WebbRyan           RP        4%   40%   56%        TroutSteve   DeLosSantosRich         DeweyMark
ItalianoCraig      SP        2%   34%   64%        LangdonTed       PacellaJohn        LumleyMike
BrittonChris       RP        9%   34%   58%         SabelErik     LundbergDavid          LynchJoe
LeblancWade        SP        5%   47%   48%        ViolaFrank        SimonsDoug      PainterLance
StaufferTim        SP        3%   39%   58%           PughTim  TankersleyDennis        ReddingTim
GarrisonStevenson  SP        6%   35%   59%  RobertsonJeriome         JonesMike        HenryButch
BanksJosh          SP        2%   37%   61%        TowersJosh     AtchisonScott       LincolnMike
InmanWilliam       SP        1%   30%   68%         VoigtPaul    BettendorfJeff         LeroyJohn
BuschmannMatthew   SP        2%   29%   70%        SmithChris       AndujarLuis           DrewTim
EllisJonathan      RP        1%   19%   80%        WilmetPaul     GaillardEddie      CameronKevin
FrieriErnesto      SP        1%   18%   82%        HudsonLuke      FletcherPaul    BaerlocherRyan
RamosCesar         SP        0%   12%   88%       CromerJason     ProchaskaMike   CumberlandChris
GeerJoshua         SP        0%   10%   90%           CoxRyan         GeeveDave        TowersJosh
SilvaWalter        SP        1%   13%   86%         BenesAlan        DickeyR.A.         OrtizRuss
CarrilloCesar      SP        0%    7%   92%      WoodyardMark       StemleSteve         HunterJim
EkstromMichael     SP        0%    3%   97%        WrightMatt    FarnsworthJeff     BalsleyDarren

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9 <1
BellHeath               83%       99%       93%       4%       93%
GregersonLuke           54%       94%       76%       1%       93%
ThatcherJoe             51%       91%       84%       4%       93%
AdamsMike               42%       86%       65%       5%       70%
QuezadaJackson          37%       71%       30%       9%       85%
YoungChris              22%       78%       39%       0%       49%
LatosMatthew            17%       69%        4%       1%       79%
CorreiaKevin             7%       69%        4%       2%       82%
GallagherSean           13%       61%       22%       0%       88%
WorrellMark             25%       60%       39%       0%       79%
de la CruzEulogio       10%       61%        4%       0%       91%
BurkeGreg               14%       61%       15%       3%       64%
MujicaEdward            13%       59%       22%      49%       47%
PerdomoLuis             13%       56%       52%       0%       53%
RussellAdam             11%       52%        4%       0%       83%
CherryRocky              6%       38%        2%       0%       82%
RichardClayton           1%       40%        0%       1%       76%
HillShawn               10%       39%        3%      34%       73%
PoredaAaron              1%       27%        3%       0%       94%
WebbRyan                 3%       31%        1%       1%       69%
ItalianoCraig            1%       22%       18%       0%       88%
BrittonChris             6%       34%        1%      12%       50%
LeblancWade              0%       18%        2%       0%       10%
StaufferTim              0%       13%        0%       1%       44%
GarrisonStevenson        1%       15%        0%       5%       30%
BanksJosh                0%       11%        0%      14%       28%
InmanWilliam             0%        7%        0%       0%       31%
BuschmannMatthew         0%        7%        0%       0%       30%
EllisJonathan            1%       12%        2%       0%       56%
FrieriErnesto            0%        3%        1%       0%       10%
RamosCesar               0%        2%        0%       0%       36%
GeerJoshua               0%        1%        0%      12%        5%
SilvaWalter              0%        4%        1%       1%       32%
CarrilloCesar            0%        1%        0%       0%       26%
EkstromMichael           0%        2%        2%       1%       39%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+
GonzalezAdrian   .260 .352 .472 2354  8762   1378   2276  472  24  447 1351  1204   2021   1   5  128
KouzmanoffKevin  .251 .300 .413 1536  5764    619   1448  307  21  195  856   312   1273  11   4   98
GilesBrian       .287 .394 .491 2003  7122   1193   2042  444  59  297 1142  1260    916 112  48  133

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+
YoungChris         98    82     0  3.95    286    286 1574   1319    196    679   1366    105

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 25, 2009 at 10:24 AM | 32 comment(s)
  Related News: San DiegoZIPS

Reader Comments and Retorts

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. Double-Spin Mechanic  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:17 PM (#3396623)
Second...

Best...

Projection...

Kyle Blanks...

Cleveland...

Spiders...
   2. Autobahn  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:20 PM (#3396627)
Is Adrian Gonzalez really going to be still on this team come 2010?
   3. Shooty Did Not Kill McGurk  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:22 PM (#3396629)
I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.
   4. Nasty Nate  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:31 PM (#3396641)
ZIPS has sponsors now?
   5. Walt Davis  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:32 PM (#3396645)
Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

Anthony Gwynn? Nicholas Hundley? ZiPS -- the most respectful projections in the game!

I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.

The A's have an offense?
   6. Shooty Did Not Kill McGurk  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:34 PM (#3396650)
The A's have an offense?

Oh, a wise guy, huh?
   7. Walt Davis  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:35 PM (#3396654)
I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."

Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage.

There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.
   8. Eric J  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 12:55 PM (#3396682)
Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

I believe that means Dan is Giles' grandfather.

Seriously, though, Giles is one year removed from a .306/.398/.456 line in a pitchers' park, and ZiPS projects him to have a 69% chance of being 40th percentile or worse among right fielders. It's not in love with him.
   9. ColonelTom  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 01:00 PM (#3396696)
Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee. I'll take the over on that .246/.334/.406 projection.
   10. davoarid in MN  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 01:18 PM (#3396728)
evereth cabreras projection seems low i think he will do better than that evereth cabrera came on strong last year also his list of comps is very strange what is b j upton doing on there
   11. davoarid in MN  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 01:20 PM (#3396734)
I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!
   12. phatip  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 01:32 PM (#3396749)
I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!


Don't forget Trevor Hoffman, Khalil Greene (who hit 27 Hr's that year, & Mike Cameron. That team really doesn't compare to the 2009 version.
   13. Mike Emeigh  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 01:33 PM (#3396753)
Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee.


Yeah, but I think he's more likely to have the career arc of the first comp, especially in this ballpark. The good news is that he didn't strike out all that much in the minors; the bad news is that he didn't slug .500 in the PCL and had more HR than he did other EBH last season, which is a sign of a serious fly-ball hitter with good but not great power. He got killed by Petco, which I would expect.

-- MWE
   14. philly  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 03:09 PM (#3396882)
I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage. There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.


Now that you mention it, I think marital strife has already hit the Yankees. Wasn't there a son-in-law who was being groomed to take over until he was arrested for DUI with his girlfriend in the car? Only after he was pushed out of the picture did Hank and Hal move to the front of the line.
   15. frenchredsox  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 04:33 PM (#3396996)
NO Greg Burke,shame really as he was pretty good in '08 ;)
   16. Dan Szymborski  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 07:43 PM (#3397113)
There is a Greg Burke projection (you can see he made ODDIBE), but I must not have put it in the main section.
   17. Juan V has had a good baseball year  Posted: November 25, 2009 at 07:52 PM (#3397118)
I can see why the Red Sox are interested in Adrian Gonzalez.
   18. BobbyS  Posted: November 26, 2009 at 12:12 AM (#3397207)
So Gwynn's improvement at a prime age...isn't expected to be legit (especially his BB%/OBP)? And is he really that bad at fielding a ball?

I expected a little better out of Cabrera, nothing stellar or antyhing.
   19. OBSLCommish  Posted: November 26, 2009 at 01:04 AM (#3397218)
How about a projection for Dexter Carter?
   20. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS)  Posted: November 26, 2009 at 05:00 AM (#3397251)
Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?

6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93 (I include six because most teams end up using [at least] that many). That's well above average.

6 top relievers (about the number that see high-leverage innings): 152, 127, 124, 120, 112, 103. Again, that's well above average.

Optimal starting lineup by OPS+ with defense:
C Hundley 87/Fr
1B Gonzalez 143/Av
2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)
SS Cabrera 83/Av
3B Kouzmanoff 104/Av
LF Salazar 108/Fr
CF Gwynn 83/Vg
RF Giles 100/Av

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.

It's only on paper, but this really does not look like that bad a team, despite the absence of even a second plus hitter.
   21. morineko  Posted: November 26, 2009 at 10:54 PM (#3397497)
Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?


Well, you could probably drop Correia and his 105 ERA+ right out of there, as many signs indicate that if he doesn't take a lowball offer, he'll be non-tendered. There's also a good chance that Bell may get dumped. The Moores divorce is the gift that keeps on giving to the other 29 teams.
   22. rlc  Posted: November 27, 2009 at 01:43 AM (#3397517)
No Radhames Liz?
   23. DCW3   Posted: November 27, 2009 at 01:47 AM (#3397518)
2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)

Eckstein's signed with San Diego through 2010.
   24. ugen64  Posted: November 27, 2009 at 10:22 PM (#3397888)
rlc - he'll probably get projected with the O's.
   25. Dan Szymborski  Posted: November 27, 2009 at 10:46 PM (#3397898)
Yeah, I'm always lagging a bit in posting, so I still had Liz's projection with Baltimore. I'll get all caught up with Thanksgiving week stuff Monday.
   26. DKDC  Posted: November 27, 2009 at 10:46 PM (#3397899)
6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93


Those top 6 starters are projected to only make 118 starts combined for a reason. There's some serious injury risk there, and the Padres are likely going to have to dig a lot deeper than that.

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.


All that slightly below average adds up. Compare those OPS+ numbers to league averages, and you have one above average hitter and one above average fielder.

This isn't going to be one of the worst teams in the league, but it's probably a mid 70s win team without much upside.
   27. Shilzzz  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 01:07 AM (#3398446)
Tony gwynn is really luis durango's second player comp? As in senior? Struck me as odd
   28. kfsports  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 09:29 AM (#3398519)
I am curious how DeHoyos might do if he actually saw some time in SD.
   29. kfsports  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 09:37 AM (#3398523)
Also, nice projection for Quezada even though he didn't pitch last season. I never could find an article on what type of injury he had, does anyone know?
   30. Dan Szymborski  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 09:48 AM (#3398527)
I'll add the requests for the next build.

Durango's second comp is the lesser Gwynn.
   31. Saberseams  Posted: December 03, 2009 at 09:15 AM (#3401955)
I'd be interested to see a projection for Sawyer Carroll. I would think he'd at least get a cup o' coffee next year in the show.
   32. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:15 PM (#3448393)
Hey Dan, I know you're busy but I'd be curious to see your take on the Kouzmanoff/Hairston deal. Thanks!
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