BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

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1. Double-Spin Mechanic Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:17 PM (#3396623)

Second...

Best...

Projection...

Kyle Blanks...

Cleveland...

Spiders...

2. Autobahn Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3396627)

Is Adrian Gonzalez really going to be still on this team come 2010?

3. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:22 PM (#3396629)

I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.

4. Nasty Nate Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:31 PM (#3396641)

ZIPS has sponsors now?

5. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3396645)

Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

Anthony Gwynn? Nicholas Hundley? ZiPS -- the most respectful projections in the game!

I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.

The A's have an offense?

6. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:34 PM (#3396650)

The A's have an offense?

Oh, a wise guy, huh?

7. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:35 PM (#3396654)

I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."

Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage.

There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.

8. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:55 PM (#3396682)

Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

I believe that means Dan is Giles' grandfather.

Seriously, though, Giles is one year removed from a .306/.398/.456 line in a pitchers' park, and ZiPS projects him to have a 69% chance of being 40th percentile or worse among right fielders. It's not in love with him.

9. ColonelTom Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:00 PM (#3396696)

Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee. I'll take the over on that .246/.334/.406 projection.

10. Masterson and Manson Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:18 PM (#3396728)

evereth cabreras projection seems low i think he will do better than that evereth cabrera came on strong last year also his list of comps is very strange what is b j upton doing on there

11. Masterson and Manson Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3396734)

I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!

12. phatip Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3396749)

I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!

Don't forget Trevor Hoffman, Khalil Greene (who hit 27 Hr's that year, & Mike Cameron. That team really doesn't compare to the 2009 version.

13. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:33 PM (#3396753)

Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee.

Yeah, but I think he's more likely to have the career arc of the first comp, especially in this ballpark. The good news is that he didn't strike out all that much in the minors; the bad news is that he didn't slug .500 in the PCL and had more HR than he did other EBH last season, which is a sign of a serious fly-ball hitter with good but not great power. He got killed by Petco, which I would expect.

-- MWE

14. philly Posted: November 25, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3396882)

I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage. There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.

Now that you mention it, I think marital strife has already hit the Yankees. Wasn't there a son-in-law who was being groomed to take over until he was arrested for DUI with his girlfriend in the car? Only after he was pushed out of the picture did Hank and Hal move to the front of the line.

15. frenchredsox Posted: November 25, 2009 at 09:33 PM (#3396996)

NO Greg Burke,shame really as he was pretty good in '08 ;)

16. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 26, 2009 at 12:43 AM (#3397113)

There is a Greg Burke projection (you can see he made ODDIBE), but I must not have put it in the main section.

17. Juan V is the mustard of your doom! Posted: November 26, 2009 at 12:52 AM (#3397118)

I can see why the Red Sox are interested in Adrian Gonzalez.

18. BobbyS Posted: November 26, 2009 at 05:12 AM (#3397207)

So Gwynn's improvement at a prime age...isn't expected to be legit (especially his BB%/OBP)? And is he really that bad at fielding a ball?

I expected a little better out of Cabrera, nothing stellar or antyhing.

19. OBSLCommish Posted: November 26, 2009 at 06:04 AM (#3397218)

How about a projection for Dexter Carter?

20. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: November 26, 2009 at 10:00 AM (#3397251)

Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?

6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93 (I include six because most teams end up using [at least] that many). That's well above average.

6 top relievers (about the number that see high-leverage innings): 152, 127, 124, 120, 112, 103. Again, that's well above average.

Optimal starting lineup by OPS+ with defense:
C Hundley 87/Fr
1B Gonzalez 143/Av
2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)
SS Cabrera 83/Av
3B Kouzmanoff 104/Av
LF Salazar 108/Fr
CF Gwynn 83/Vg
RF Giles 100/Av

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.

It's only on paper, but this really does not look like that bad a team, despite the absence of even a second plus hitter.

21. morineko Posted: November 27, 2009 at 03:54 AM (#3397497)

Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?

Well, you could probably drop Correia and his 105 ERA+ right out of there, as many signs indicate that if he doesn't take a lowball offer, he'll be non-tendered. There's also a good chance that Bell may get dumped. The Moores divorce is the gift that keeps on giving to the other 29 teams.

22. rlc Posted: November 27, 2009 at 06:43 AM (#3397517)

No Radhames Liz?

23. DCW3 Posted: November 27, 2009 at 06:47 AM (#3397518)

2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)

Eckstein's signed with San Diego through 2010.

24. ugen64 Posted: November 28, 2009 at 03:22 AM (#3397888)

rlc - he'll probably get projected with the O's.

25. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 28, 2009 at 03:46 AM (#3397898)

Yeah, I'm always lagging a bit in posting, so I still had Liz's projection with Baltimore. I'll get all caught up with Thanksgiving week stuff Monday.

26. DKDC Posted: November 28, 2009 at 03:46 AM (#3397899)

6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93

Those top 6 starters are projected to only make 118 starts combined for a reason. There's some serious injury risk there, and the Padres are likely going to have to dig a lot deeper than that.

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.

All that slightly below average adds up. Compare those OPS+ numbers to league averages, and you have one above average hitter and one above average fielder.

This isn't going to be one of the worst teams in the league, but it's probably a mid 70s win team without much upside.

27. Shilzzz Posted: November 29, 2009 at 06:07 AM (#3398446)

Tony gwynn is really luis durango's second player comp? As in senior? Struck me as odd

28. kfsports Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:29 PM (#3398519)

I am curious how DeHoyos might do if he actually saw some time in SD.

29. kfsports Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3398523)

Also, nice projection for Quezada even though he didn't pitch last season. I never could find an article on what type of injury he had, does anyone know?

30. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:48 PM (#3398527)

I'll add the requests for the next build.

Durango's second comp is the lesser Gwynn.

31. Saberseams Posted: December 03, 2009 at 02:15 PM (#3401955)

I'd be interested to see a projection for Sawyer Carroll. I would think he'd at least get a cup o' coffee next year in the show.

32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 02:15 AM (#3448393)

Hey Dan, I know you're busy but I'd be curious to see your take on the Kouzmanoff/Hairston deal. Thanks!

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