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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres
The 2009 edition of the Padres improved on the 2008 team by a dozen wins, though you wouldn't know it given that all the attention was on the Jake Peavy Sweepstakes. 2010 may very well be a repeat, with Adrian Gonzalez's eventual destination being the primary target of media attention.Improvement aside, the Padres are still a team with serious issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the next couple of years. The messy Moores divorce really threw the team into financial turmoil, which will continue until the divorce is finally settled and Jeff Moorad's group completes the sale of the team. As an example of just what a mess the whole situation is, Moorad's target date for completing the transition is in the 2012-2013 time frame.
It's not great news for Padres fans, but the team will be very resistant towards any kind of investment in the team, even good investments.
So what do the Padres do? Pretty much all they can do is try to trade well to keep enough talent coming-through the organization until such time as they're no longer a zombie team. A lot of the lesser teams at least have the option at aggressively trying some new things, but the Pads are going to be cheap at pretty much every level the next couple of years.
On the plus side, the team does have a good number of non-terrible relief arms. The pitching was very disappointing this season, but with a little luck, they could cobble something respectable together.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Adrian Gonzalez* 1b 28 .268 .365 .507 160 594 101 159 33 2 35 102 88 138 0 1 143 Kyle Blanks 1b 23 .246 .334 .406 134 468 62 115 20 2 17 66 52 145 2 2 108 Oscar Salazar lf 32 .271 .318 .426 128 432 54 117 27 2 12 65 31 65 3 2 108 Kevin Kouzmanoff 3b 28 .257 .305 .426 140 530 59 136 29 2 19 82 28 117 1 0 104 Chase Headley# lf 26 .252 .327 .383 146 540 67 136 31 2 12 61 55 159 6 2 100 Brian Giles* rf 39 .251 .340 .367 82 311 39 78 17 2 5 34 42 41 1 1 100 Will Venable* cf 27 .249 .309 .385 144 527 70 131 22 4 14 60 41 140 9 2 95 Val Pascucci 1b 31 .217 .318 .368 124 437 54 95 19 1 15 59 61 150 3 1 94 James Darnell 3b 23 .232 .326 .366 132 505 63 117 26 3 12 58 70 134 5 6 96 Chad Huffman lf 25 .233 .314 .364 132 489 63 114 24 2 12 58 50 133 3 3 91 David Eckstein 2b 35 .264 .325 .335 103 382 48 101 19 1 2 31 27 38 4 1 87 Eric Sogard* 2b 24 .254 .320 .352 126 520 81 132 27 3 6 55 51 77 8 6 90 Logan Forsythe 3b 23 .218 .331 .314 136 522 73 114 18 4 8 48 82 159 7 2 84 Anthony Gwynn* cf 27 .258 .323 .321 132 445 68 115 14 4 2 29 42 80 18 6 83 Craig Stansberry 3b 28 .239 .316 .346 117 422 57 101 21 3 6 41 45 93 7 6 87 Everth Cabrera# ss 23 .243 .318 .328 120 461 70 112 20 5 3 35 47 125 36 12 83 Danny Putnam* lf 27 .230 .303 .358 104 374 44 86 19 1 9 51 35 101 4 3 86 Nicholas Hundley c 26 .230 .288 .370 101 365 38 84 19 1 10 47 29 98 2 1 87 Henry Blanco c 38 .237 .308 .342 56 152 17 36 7 0 3 11 16 38 0 0 86 Kellen Kulbacki* rf 24 .240 .306 .346 69 263 29 63 11 1 5 31 23 63 2 2 84 Edgar Gonzalez 2b 32 .240 .304 .362 103 246 26 59 10 1 6 25 20 64 2 4 87 Matt Antonelli 2b 25 .228 .311 .332 106 394 56 90 17 3 6 36 43 84 6 4 85 Mike Baxter* rf 25 .236 .301 .338 130 488 61 115 24 4 6 55 44 109 8 5 80 Drew Macias* cf 27 .228 .313 .321 138 448 60 102 20 2 6 43 52 98 6 6 80 Russ Adams* 2b 29 .238 .297 .343 105 362 44 86 16 2 6 35 30 70 4 3 80 Vince Sinisi* rf 28 .247 .292 .336 72 259 26 64 12 1 3 24 16 50 2 1 77 Cedric Hunter* cf 22 .256 .289 .338 139 598 85 153 24 5 5 63 27 68 9 5 76 Peter Ciofrone* 3b 26 .236 .300 .323 111 403 50 95 13 2 6 40 32 86 1 2 76 Luis Durango# lf 24 .244 .328 .286 129 475 80 116 13 2 1 27 58 93 23 12 76 Mike Collns c 25 .229 .299 .317 78 271 28 62 13 1 3 27 17 59 3 2 74 Mitch Canham* c 25 .227 .293 .320 97 375 42 85 16 2 5 45 34 90 5 2 73 Brett Dowdy 2b 28 .234 .285 .316 103 380 45 89 15 2 4 24 24 75 7 4 70 Sean Kazmar ss 25 .229 .287 .303 125 432 49 99 18 1 4 44 33 87 7 3 67 Yamid Haad c 32 .212 .254 .304 56 184 16 39 8 0 3 14 10 48 1 1 57 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Gonzalez* Av/88 Blanks Fr/124 Fr/124 Fr/124 Salazar Pr/102 Pr/123 Pr/136 Fr/102 Fr/102 Kouzmanoff Av/89 Headley# Av/106 Av/115 Giles* Av/108 Venable* Vg/75 Fr/44 Vg/75 Pascucci Fr/133 Fr/135 Fr/135 Darnell Fr/153 Huffman Av/93 Av/93 Av/93 Eckstein Fr/56 Fr/125 Sogard* Av/142 Forsythe Av/135 Gwynn* Vg/154 Vg/154 Vg/154 Stansberry Av/113 Fr/137 Fr/142 Cabrera# Av/140 Av/140 Putnam* Fr/114 Fr/114 Fr/114 Hundley Fr Blanco Vg Kulbacki* Fr/128 Fr/128 Gonzalez Av/141 Av/141 Antonelli Fr/131 Av/131 Baxter* Av/84 Av/84 Pr/101 Av/84 Macias* Vg/99 Av/124 Vg/99 Adams* Av/159 Av/159 Fr/191 Av/182 Av/182 Sinisi* Fr/166 Fr/166 Pr/180 Fr/166 Hunter* Vg/101 Av/123 Ciofrone* Fr/124 Fr/127 Fr/127 Durango# Vg/172 Vg/191 Collins Fr Fr/119 Canham* Pr Dowdy Av/125 Fr/125 Av/125 Pr/125 Fr/125 Fr/125 Fr/125 Kazmar Av/119 Fr/116 Haad Fr * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 GonzalezAdrian 1B 58% 30% 7% 3% 1% OrtizDavid PowellBoog GentileJim SalazarOscar LF 10% 19% 21% 25% 25% MeleSam EnnisDel ReynoldsCarl BlanksKyle 1B 2% 15% 25% 41% 17% MaasKevin FielderPrince LeeDerrek KouzmanoffKevin 3B 9% 23% 31% 25% 12% WiggintonTy CoomerRon HayesCharlie HeadleyChase LF 3% 15% 20% 30% 33% CruzJacob BigbieLarry ScottLuke GilesBrian RF 2% 11% 17% 28% 41% SurhoffB.J. SlaughterEnos WanerPaul VenableWill CF 9% 11% 27% 34% 19% GeronimoCesar DevereauxMike WhiteDevon PascucciVal 1B 1% 7% 11% 30% 51% van BurkleoTy TracyAndy SexsonRichie DarnellJames 3B 2% 7% 17% 35% 40% EvansTom HolleyBobby HulettTim EcksteinDavid 2B 2% 8% 16% 32% 42% GantnerJim TempleJohnny RojasCookie CabreraEverth SS 7% 21% 38% 26% 8% FletcherScott UptonB.J. ListachPat SogardEric 2B 3% 6% 14% 30% 46% OesterRon TreadwayJeffCatalanottoFrank HuffmanChad LF 1% 2% 5% 18% 75% JasterScott MohrDustan DuboisJason GwynnTony CF 1% 5% 19% 39% 35% JohnsonLance ThompsonMilt SanchezAlex StansberryCraig 3B 1% 3% 8% 24% 64% FiniganJim GonzalezEdgar MoraMelvin PutnamDanny LF 0% 1% 3% 12% 84% FreemanLaVel LesherBrian McMillonBilly HundleyNick C 2% 17% 29% 38% 14% HayesBill AcevesJon HaselmanBill BlancoHenry C 4% 13% 30% 38% 15% DifeliceMike ParrishLance GuerraMike KulbackiKellen RF 1% 2% 3% 6% 88% PlattWhitey BradyBrian BellDerek ForsytheLogan 3B 1% 2% 8% 28% 60% BardenBrian BerrySean EdlerDave GonzalezEdgar 2B 1% 2% 6% 22% 70% O'RourkeFrank NewhanDavid DuncanMariano AntonelliMatthew 2B 2% 3% 9% 27% 60% BacaniDavid BensonSteve GarrisonWebster BaxterMike RF 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% KoslofskiKevin LusaderScott JonesChris AdamsRuss 2B 3% 3% 7% 21% 67% KraussTim MalloyMarty MartinStu SinisiVince RF 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% SchulzJeff WohlfordJim PowellHosken HunterCedric CF 0% 0% 3% 21% 75% RomeroAlex KotsayMark GallagherDave MaciasDrew CF 1% 1% 5% 22% 71% AndersonBrady ManningRick PerezTimo CiofronePeter 3B 0% 0% 1% 8% 90% StrangeDoug BerryMike LyonsSteve DurangoLuis LF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% BrownDarrell GwynnTony LawtonMarcus CanhamMitch C 0% 2% 5% 27% 66% CalvertChris AusmusBrad NewstromDoug CollinsMike C 0% 0% 3% 23% 74% GirardiJoe DempseyPat BlancoHenry DowdyBrett 2B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% BreedingMarv LeggGreg HayesJackie KazmarSean SS 0% 1% 5% 19% 74% LunaHector CabreraJolbert ColeStu HaadYamid C 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% MolinaJose BordersPat HundleyRandy Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB GonzalezAdrian 11% 35% 51% 53% 7% 0% 72% 0% SalazarOscar 15% 4% 7% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% BlanksKyle 1% 5% 2% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% KouzmanoffKevin 4% 0% 7% 3% 1% 0% 6% 0% HeadleyChase 3% 3% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% GilesBrian 6% 13% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% VenableWill 4% 2% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% PascucciVal 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% DarnellJames 1% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% EcksteinDavid 10% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CabreraEverth 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 82% SogardEric 3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% HuffmanChad 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% GwynnTony 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% StansberryCraig 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PutnamDanny 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HundleyNick 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BlancoHenry 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% KulbackiKellen 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ForsytheLogan 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% GonzalezEdgar 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AntonelliMatthew 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BaxterMike 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% AdamsRuss 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SinisiVince 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HunterCedric 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% MaciasDrew 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CiofronePeter 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DurangoLuis 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% CanhamMitch 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% CollinsMike 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DowdyBrett 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% KazmarSean 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HaadYamid 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Chris Young 31 3.74 7 6 20 20 110.2 91 46 13 49 96 110 Mat Latos 22 3.92 6 6 19 17 82.2 80 36 7 31 58 105 Kevin Correia 29 3.93 11 10 30 30 171.2 170 75 16 56 124 105 Sean Gallagher 24 3.98 6 5 24 16 86.0 83 38 7 36 70 104 Clayton Richard* 26 4.34 9 10 36 28 164.0 170 79 16 58 98 95 Shawn Hill 29 4.46 2 2 7 7 38.1 43 19 3 11 23 93 Aaron Poreda* 23 4.51 7 8 33 23 133.2 134 67 10 79 93 92 Craig Italiano 23 4.67 5 7 37 17 108.0 107 56 9 68 86 89 Wade LeBlanc* 25 4.73 8 12 32 29 156.0 158 82 24 57 113 87 Tim Stauffer 28 4.89 6 10 29 22 134.1 150 73 16 49 84 84 Steve Garrison* 23 4.90 3 5 16 15 75.1 82 41 11 26 43 84 Josh Banks 27 4.96 7 11 32 23 152.1 173 84 21 43 82 83 Will Inman 23 5.05 6 10 28 28 140.2 149 79 19 65 93 82 Matthew Buschmann 26 5.06 6 10 31 24 138.2 156 78 18 53 79 82 Ernesto Frieri 24 5.31 6 12 32 25 135.2 142 80 22 68 94 78 Cesar Ramos* 26 5.49 6 12 25 22 121.1 144 74 16 54 63 75 Josh Geer 27 5.58 6 12 29 28 163.0 194 101 29 46 77 74 Walter Silva 33 5.63 4 9 28 18 102.1 118 64 14 44 55 73 Cesar Carrillo 26 5.84 3 8 19 19 94.0 110 61 13 50 44 71 Michael Ekstrom 26 5.92 3 8 28 11 79.0 101 52 11 33 55 70 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Heath Bell 32 2.71 8 3 72 0 76.1 60 23 5 26 81 152 Luke Gregerson 26 3.25 5 3 67 0 74.2 64 27 5 30 74 127 Joe Thatcher* 28 3.33 5 3 70 0 67.2 61 25 5 24 69 124 Mike Adams 31 3.43 2 2 51 0 57.2 50 22 5 21 54 120 Jackson Quezada 23 3.68 2 2 29 0 29.1 27 12 2 12 24 112 Mark Worrell 27 4.00 3 2 38 0 45.0 42 20 4 21 39 103 Eulogio de la Cruz 26 4.06 7 7 44 13 108.2 101 49 8 59 75 102 Edward Mujica 26 4.08 3 3 61 1 79.1 80 36 10 19 65 101 Luis Perdomo 26 4.10 3 3 50 0 68.0 59 31 9 36 61 101 Adam Russell 27 4.17 4 4 56 0 73.1 71 34 6 34 53 99 Rocky Cherry 30 4.29 2 2 51 1 71.1 71 34 6 35 48 96 Ryan Webb 24 4.54 4 5 63 1 75.1 81 38 7 30 50 91 Chris Britton 27 4.70 2 3 30 0 44.0 47 23 6 15 27 88 Jonathan Ellis 27 5.11 4 7 57 0 68.2 72 39 8 40 47 81 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 BellHeath RP 87% 12% 1% LockwoodSkip ShieldsScot GossageRich GregersonLuke RP 62% 36% 3% WardDuane HernandezBuddy AdamsTerry ThatcherJoe RP 51% 43% 7% HernandezWillie AssenmacherPaul PlesacDan AdamsMike RP 51% 39% 10% GreggKevin FrasorJason LeskanicCurt QuezadaJackson RP 37% 43% 20% PenaAlejandro InnisJeff NealBlaine YoungChris SP 56% 38% 6% GardnerMark PersonRobert MartinezRamon LatosMatthew SP 45% 45% 10% GonzalezEnrique MadsonRyan EatonAdam CorreiaKevin SP 37% 55% 7% StottlemyreTodd BensonKris JohnsonJason GallagherSean SP 37% 48% 15% GottJim GaudinChad HarrisGreg WorrellMark RP 25% 44% 31% BulgerJason SerranoJimmy FredricksonScott de la CruzEulogio RP 15% 55% 30% CornellJeff StuperJohn MillsAlan BurkeGreg RP 19% 55% 26% GardnerLee SchmackBrian PichardoHipolito MujicaEdward RP 17% 54% 29% MelendezJose BostHeath KrawczykJack PerdomoLuis RP 13% 49% 38% HedrickJustin MeyerJack JonesJeff RussellAdam RP 11% 55% 34% DehoyosGabriel ShepherdKeith FioreTony CherryRocky RP 8% 43% 49% BumsteadMike FioreTony GwynMarcus RichardClayton SP 15% 64% 21% SauerbeckScott OttoDave McGrawTom HillShawn SP 30% 36% 34% HoltChris EricksonScott MorganMike PoredaAaron SP 10% 53% 38% WilsonTrevor ClarkBryan AndersonJimmy WebbRyan RP 4% 40% 56% TroutSteve DeLosSantosRich DeweyMark ItalianoCraig SP 2% 34% 64% LangdonTed PacellaJohn LumleyMike BrittonChris RP 9% 34% 58% SabelErik LundbergDavid LynchJoe LeblancWade SP 5% 47% 48% ViolaFrank SimonsDoug PainterLance StaufferTim SP 3% 39% 58% PughTim TankersleyDennis ReddingTim GarrisonStevenson SP 6% 35% 59% RobertsonJeriome JonesMike HenryButch BanksJosh SP 2% 37% 61% TowersJosh AtchisonScott LincolnMike InmanWilliam SP 1% 30% 68% VoigtPaul BettendorfJeff LeroyJohn BuschmannMatthew SP 2% 29% 70% SmithChris AndujarLuis DrewTim EllisJonathan RP 1% 19% 80% WilmetPaul GaillardEddie CameronKevin FrieriErnesto SP 1% 18% 82% HudsonLuke FletcherPaul BaerlocherRyan RamosCesar SP 0% 12% 88% CromerJason ProchaskaMike CumberlandChris GeerJoshua SP 0% 10% 90% CoxRyan GeeveDave TowersJosh SilvaWalter SP 1% 13% 86% BenesAlan DickeyR.A. OrtizRuss CarrilloCesar SP 0% 7% 92% WoodyardMark StemleSteve HunterJim EkstromMichael SP 0% 3% 97% WrightMatt FarnsworthJeff BalsleyDarren Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 BellHeath 83% 99% 93% 4% 93% GregersonLuke 54% 94% 76% 1% 93% ThatcherJoe 51% 91% 84% 4% 93% AdamsMike 42% 86% 65% 5% 70% QuezadaJackson 37% 71% 30% 9% 85% YoungChris 22% 78% 39% 0% 49% LatosMatthew 17% 69% 4% 1% 79% CorreiaKevin 7% 69% 4% 2% 82% GallagherSean 13% 61% 22% 0% 88% WorrellMark 25% 60% 39% 0% 79% de la CruzEulogio 10% 61% 4% 0% 91% BurkeGreg 14% 61% 15% 3% 64% MujicaEdward 13% 59% 22% 49% 47% PerdomoLuis 13% 56% 52% 0% 53% RussellAdam 11% 52% 4% 0% 83% CherryRocky 6% 38% 2% 0% 82% RichardClayton 1% 40% 0% 1% 76% HillShawn 10% 39% 3% 34% 73% PoredaAaron 1% 27% 3% 0% 94% WebbRyan 3% 31% 1% 1% 69% ItalianoCraig 1% 22% 18% 0% 88% BrittonChris 6% 34% 1% 12% 50% LeblancWade 0% 18% 2% 0% 10% StaufferTim 0% 13% 0% 1% 44% GarrisonStevenson 1% 15% 0% 5% 30% BanksJosh 0% 11% 0% 14% 28% InmanWilliam 0% 7% 0% 0% 31% BuschmannMatthew 0% 7% 0% 0% 30% EllisJonathan 1% 12% 2% 0% 56% FrieriErnesto 0% 3% 1% 0% 10% RamosCesar 0% 2% 0% 0% 36% GeerJoshua 0% 1% 0% 12% 5% SilvaWalter 0% 4% 1% 1% 32% CarrilloCesar 0% 1% 0% 0% 26% EkstromMichael 0% 2% 2% 1% 39% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ GonzalezAdrian .260 .352 .472 2354 8762 1378 2276 472 24 447 1351 1204 2021 1 5 128 KouzmanoffKevin .251 .300 .413 1536 5764 619 1448 307 21 195 856 312 1273 11 4 98 GilesBrian .287 .394 .491 2003 7122 1193 2042 444 59 297 1142 1260 916 112 48 133 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ YoungChris 98 82 0 3.95 286 286 1574 1319 196 679 1366 105 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
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Kyle Blanks...
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Anthony Gwynn? Nicholas Hundley? ZiPS -- the most respectful projections in the game!
I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.
The A's have an offense?
Oh, a wise guy, huh?
Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage.
There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.
I believe that means Dan is Giles' grandfather.
Seriously, though, Giles is one year removed from a .306/.398/.456 line in a pitchers' park, and ZiPS projects him to have a 69% chance of being 40th percentile or worse among right fielders. It's not in love with him.
Don't forget Trevor Hoffman, Khalil Greene (who hit 27 Hr's that year, & Mike Cameron. That team really doesn't compare to the 2009 version.
Yeah, but I think he's more likely to have the career arc of the first comp, especially in this ballpark. The good news is that he didn't strike out all that much in the minors; the bad news is that he didn't slug .500 in the PCL and had more HR than he did other EBH last season, which is a sign of a serious fly-ball hitter with good but not great power. He got killed by Petco, which I would expect.
-- MWE
Now that you mention it, I think marital strife has already hit the Yankees. Wasn't there a son-in-law who was being groomed to take over until he was arrested for DUI with his girlfriend in the car? Only after he was pushed out of the picture did Hank and Hal move to the front of the line.
I expected a little better out of Cabrera, nothing stellar or antyhing.
6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93 (I include six because most teams end up using [at least] that many). That's well above average.
6 top relievers (about the number that see high-leverage innings): 152, 127, 124, 120, 112, 103. Again, that's well above average.
Optimal starting lineup by OPS+ with defense:
C Hundley 87/Fr
1B Gonzalez 143/Av
2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)
SS Cabrera 83/Av
3B Kouzmanoff 104/Av
LF Salazar 108/Fr
CF Gwynn 83/Vg
RF Giles 100/Av
This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.
It's only on paper, but this really does not look like that bad a team, despite the absence of even a second plus hitter.
Well, you could probably drop Correia and his 105 ERA+ right out of there, as many signs indicate that if he doesn't take a lowball offer, he'll be non-tendered. There's also a good chance that Bell may get dumped. The Moores divorce is the gift that keeps on giving to the other 29 teams.
Eckstein's signed with San Diego through 2010.
Those top 6 starters are projected to only make 118 starts combined for a reason. There's some serious injury risk there, and the Padres are likely going to have to dig a lot deeper than that.
All that slightly below average adds up. Compare those OPS+ numbers to league averages, and you have one above average hitter and one above average fielder.
This isn't going to be one of the worst teams in the league, but it's probably a mid 70s win team without much upside.
Durango's second comp is the lesser Gwynn.
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