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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
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Wednesday, January 06, 2010
2010 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants
You get your hands on a Ferrari GT 250 from the 1950s. You painstakingly restore the car to its original form, from tires to roof. Now, it's time to get the engine up to snuff.Something's not quite right! So, you put in an engine you found in a 1984 Dodge Dart at the junk yard and after doing your best to install the engine, using duct tape, honey, and twist ties from packages of hot dog rolls, that darn car just will not start! What's the problem? You have no idea.
You might not be a very good mechanic, but you might be Brian Sabean. The Giants have a ridiculous starting rotation, anchored by Lincecum, perhaps the leading candidate for best starting pitcher of the teens, Cain, one of the best number twos around, one of the best prospects around in Bumgarner, and the interesting Sanchez. Sure, Zito's overpaid, but if he's your 5th starter, your rotation's probably pretty good.
The offense is not, mainly consisting of Sandoval and the Seven Dwarves. A team mediocre everywhere and a playoff-ready rotation just screams to overpay for an actual slugger, but Mark DeRosa appears to have been the big target, though the team could still figure out a way to avoid using their best prospect, Buster Posey. My policy of leaving players on their old team until a definite signing (or the final disk in the spring) has the hilarious side-effect of showing what an amazing idea it was to non-tender Ryan Garko because he had a slump.
No projection for Angel Villalona. Now, a lot of things can go wrong with a prospect's career from low-A to the majors, but being arrested for homicide is not a common malady. If you're a professional athlete and absolutely feel you need to kill someone, it's smarter to make the pile first. Better lawyers.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Pablo Sandoval# 3b 23 .320 .368 .516 157 597 85 191 43 4 22 110 44 81 2 2 129 Ryan Garko 1b 29 .285 .356 .460 129 435 44 124 23 1 17 67 34 71 0 0 113 Fred Lewis* lf 29 .274 .352 .427 129 391 68 107 22 7 8 46 44 98 9 4 104 Mark DeRosa 3b 35 .273 .345 .434 121 433 63 118 24 2 14 73 44 88 2 1 104 Nate Schierholtz* rf 26 .289 .325 .459 131 425 55 123 27 6 11 62 20 68 4 2 103 John Bowker* lf 26 .269 .338 .434 137 475 62 128 25 4 15 76 47 100 4 3 102 Aaron Rowand cf 32 .273 .335 .431 132 476 59 130 31 1 14 72 32 104 3 1 100 Buster Posey c 23 .263 .343 .398 126 467 67 123 25 1 12 67 53 83 3 1 95 Freddy Sanchez 2b 32 .296 .331 .413 126 506 72 150 32 3 7 60 25 67 1 1 92 Edgar Renteria ss 33 .280 .336 .388 116 443 55 124 23 2 7 52 38 63 6 2 90 Juan Uribe 3b 30 .269 .311 .442 122 398 43 107 24 3 13 58 24 77 1 2 95 Travis Ishikawa* 1b 26 .253 .316 .409 125 403 50 102 21 3 12 63 34 107 2 1 89 Matt Downs 2b 26 .273 .317 .407 118 472 63 129 29 2 10 67 27 67 8 4 89 Jesus Guzman 1b 26 .271 .320 .395 120 479 55 130 23 3 10 64 31 87 1 2 87 Bengie Molina c 35 .271 .298 .424 117 432 38 117 22 1 14 80 15 49 0 0 87 Kevin Frandsen 2b 28 .271 .328 .380 127 421 53 114 21 2 7 48 23 40 4 3 86 Andres Torres# cf 32 .254 .315 .397 107 343 50 87 15 8 6 36 29 88 9 3 86 Rich Aurilia 1b 38 .266 .312 .393 83 214 18 57 10 1 5 32 15 34 0 0 84 Stephen Holm c 30 .253 .320 .373 79 233 25 59 13 0 5 23 21 45 0 0 82 Ryan Rohlinger 3b 26 .254 .315 .382 132 484 60 123 28 2 10 70 36 89 2 2 83 Eugenio Velez# lf 28 .266 .309 .393 128 448 62 119 23 8 6 54 27 78 20 9 83 Joe Borchard# rf 31 .234 .298 .397 92 282 36 66 15 2 9 42 24 76 1 1 81 Brett Pill 1b 25 .258 .300 .381 132 504 60 130 30 1 10 83 28 86 3 2 78 Clay Timpner* cf 27 .265 .312 .361 123 441 53 117 19 4 5 47 29 62 7 6 77 Conor Gillaspie* 3b 22 .254 .321 .331 133 508 55 129 26 2 3 62 49 80 1 2 73 Emmanuel Burriss# 2b 25 .270 .323 .332 106 371 52 100 13 2 2 34 25 49 23 9 73 Roger Kieschnick* rf 23 .234 .281 .385 137 546 68 128 28 6 14 86 33 149 4 1 73 Darren Ford cf 24 .231 .303 .318 115 446 70 103 17 5 4 41 44 121 25 10 64 Eli Whiteside c 30 .241 .281 .357 77 241 24 58 11 1 5 32 11 59 1 1 67 Francisco Peguero cf 22 .248 .276 .323 92 371 40 92 13 3 3 38 12 79 13 3 57 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Sandoval# Fr Av/89 Fr/95 Garko Av/81 Lewis* Vg/141 Pr/167 Av/141 DeRosa Av/78 Fr/115 Av/93 Av/78 Av/78 Schierholtz* Av/83 Av/83 Bowker* Av/142 Av/112 Pr/134 Av/98 Rowand Av/89 Posey Vg Sanchez Av/86 Renteria Fr/100 Uribe Av/74 Av/96 Av/96 Ishikawa* Vg/123 Downs Av/117 Av/117 Av/117 Pr/133 Av/117 Av/117 Guzman Av/117 Pr/185 Pr/166 Av/117 Molina Av Frandsen Av/111 Av/111 Fr/139 Av/120 Av/120 Torres# Vg/126 Av/44 Vg/115 Aurilia Av/101 Fr/113 Holm Fr Rohlinger Vg/97 Velez# Pr/160 Vg/186 Av/179 Super Joe# Av/119 Av/119 Pill Av/112 Timpner* Av/125 Av/125 Av/125 Gillaspie* Av/151 Burriss# Vg/144 Av/138 Kieschnick* Av/79 Ford Av/183 Whiteside Av Peguero Vg/159 Vg/134 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 SandovalPablo 3B 53% 33% 10% 3% 1%LindstromFreddie RamirezAramis LansfordCarney GarkoRyan 1B 7% 24% 27% 32% 10% SheetsLarry MorelandKeith JohnsonLamar SchierholtzNate RF 5% 14% 21% 31% 29% GloadRoss BassKevin CarterSteve LewisFred LF 5% 17% 23% 31% 24% BumbryAl TuckerMichael BarrettJohnny DeRosaMark 3B 10% 23% 29% 25% 13% BoyerKen GarnerPhil DeCincesDoug RowandAaron CF 13% 19% 33% 26% 9% AllenEthan BrandtJackie WilliamsDick BowkerJohn LF 2% 10% 19% 33% 37% SpilborghsRyan HughesKeith TuckerMichael SanchezFreddy 2B 11% 14% 21% 28% 26% AdairJerryGrudzielanekMark TrilloManny PoseyBuster C 6% 37% 35% 20% 2% SuzukiKurt RamosJohn SaxDave UribeJuan 3B 2% 10% 19% 32% 37% TrubyChris FelizPedro SeabolScott RenteriaEdgar SS 10% 17% 32% 26% 15% FletcherScott UrbanskiBilly RojekStan DownsMatt 2B 4% 10% 18% 33% 35% PhillipsBrandon LansingMike GarrisonWebster MolinaBengie C 3% 16% 29% 35% 17% LyonsBarry DiazBo BooneBob IshikawaTravis 1B 0% 1% 3% 25% 72% JacksonRyan LankfordDerrick DeedsDoug TorresAndres CF 1% 5% 22% 43% 29% WebsterMitch MorenoOmar LittleMark GuzmanJesus 1B 0% 0% 1% 15% 83% BelkTim JacksonRyan TolentinoJose FrandsenKevin 2B 2% 5% 12% 29% 52% HajekDaveWhiteheadBurgess StennettRennie VelezEugenio LF 0% 1% 3% 11% 85% SmithIra VarshoGary MartinezManny AuriliaRich 1B 0% 0% 1% 12% 87% JordanBrian WoodJason PhilleyDave HolmSteve C 1% 8% 24% 45% 22% TackettJeff BennettGary McDonaldKeith RohlingerRyan 3B 0% 1% 5% 23% 71% AlfaroJason GrindellNate SeitzerBrad PillBrett 1B 0% 0% 0% 5% 95% NavarreteRay WestJeremy McGowanSean BorchardJoe RF 0% 1% 1% 7% 91% HowittDann BufordDamon SmithMark BurrissEmmanuel 2B 0% 0% 2% 12% 86% CastroBernieMachadoAlejandro ReynoldsHarold TimpnerClay CF 0% 1% 2% 12% 85% SchumakerSkip EllisonJason GlanvilleDoug KieschnickRoger RF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% MartinAl PoeCharles HamiltonJon GillaspieConor 3B 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% CiofronePeter AybarWilly BaldirisAarom WhitesideEli C 0% 0% 2% 13% 85% MosqueraJulio CharlesFrank ColbertCraig FordDarren CF 0% 0% 0% 5% 95% CurryMike DuncanJeff ScottLorenzo PegueroFrancisco CF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% HaynesNathan McGeeWillie MoranJavon Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB SandovalPablo 79% 36% 61% 27% 43% 2% 15% 0% GarkoRyan 29% 24% 16% 5% 0% 0% 3% 0% SchierholtzNate 36% 4% 13% 2% 1% 12% 0% 0% LewisFred 17% 20% 5% 2% 0% 19% 0% 0% DeRosaMark 18% 15% 9% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% RowandAaron 16% 7% 7% 1% 4% 0% 1% 0% BowkerJohn 11% 7% 4% 1% 0% 3% 1% 0% SanchezFreddy 42% 6% 3% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% PoseyBuster 5% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% UribeJuan 12% 1% 10% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% RenteriaEdgar 23% 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DownsMatt 14% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% MolinaBengie 18% 1% 10% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% IshikawaTravis 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TorresAndres 6% 3% 2% 0% 0% 32% 0% 0% GuzmanJesus 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FrandsenKevin 13% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% VelezEugenio 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 0% 4% AuriliaRich 20% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HolmSteve 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RohlingerRyan 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% PillBrett 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% BorchardJoe 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BurrissEmmanuel 11% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% TimpnerClay 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% KieschnickRoger 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% GillaspieConor 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WhitesideEli 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FordDarren 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 24% PegueroFrancisco 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Tim Lincecum 26 2.68 16 6 34 33 225.0 177 67 13 78 260 162 Matt Cain 25 3.51 13 9 34 34 217.2 197 85 20 80 179 124 Madison Bumgarner* 20 4.05 8 6 28 26 133.1 137 60 12 42 86 107 Jonathan Sanchez* 27 4.15 10 11 30 28 156.0 141 72 17 77 169 105 Randy Johnson* 46 4.33 6 8 21 20 114.1 116 55 17 32 98 100 Barry Zito* 32 4.48 11 14 32 32 184.2 183 92 21 83 132 97 Ramon Ortiz 34 4.77 5 8 33 17 126.1 137 67 17 39 83 91 Kevin Pucetas 25 4.80 6 10 28 27 144.1 161 77 16 46 74 91 Joe Martinez 27 5.16 5 9 24 21 111.2 134 64 12 38 64 84 Henry Sosa 24 5.37 2 4 15 14 63.2 72 38 9 31 36 81 Matt Kinney 33 5.55 6 13 27 26 146.0 167 90 28 48 97 78 Clayton Tanner* 22 5.72 6 13 26 24 122.2 146 78 17 62 68 76 Steve Hammond* 28 6.24 6 16 29 27 145.2 178 101 27 69 78 70 Steve Johnson 22 6.93 4 16 27 25 124.2 149 96 28 83 83 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Sergio Romo 27 3.21 5 3 52 0 53.1 44 19 5 19 54 136 Brian Wilson 28 3.47 5 3 67 0 70.0 61 27 5 30 72 125 Jeremy Affeldt* 31 3.48 2 1 74 0 64.2 56 25 5 29 58 125 Eugene Espineli* 27 4.08 3 3 54 0 64.0 69 29 5 19 36 107 Alex Hinshaw* 27 4.10 2 2 60 0 59.1 50 27 6 37 64 106 Osiris Matos 25 4.52 2 3 49 0 61.2 65 31 7 22 45 96 Brandon Medders 30 4.65 3 4 59 0 69.2 71 36 8 37 51 93 Dan Runzler* 25 4.72 2 3 55 0 55.1 51 29 6 41 53 92 Waldis Joaquin 23 4.76 3 5 53 0 62.1 63 33 5 39 48 91 Merkin Valdez 28 5.04 1 2 42 1 44.2 47 25 5 26 35 86 Steve Palazzolo 28 5.22 2 4 33 0 50.0 54 29 6 28 32 83 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 LincecumTim SP 99% 1% 0% BlackwellEwell RijoJose PascualCamilo RomoSergio RP 64% 32% 4% JenksBobby DavisRon LeskanicCurt WilsonBrian RP 59% 35% 5% WardDuane RadatzDick SelmaDick AffeldtJeremy RP 50% 43% 7% ChristiansenJason LaRocheDave OroscoJesse CainMatt SP 85% 15% 0% SeleAaron LeaCharlie MillerWade BumgarnerMadison SP 47% 47% 6% MulderMark DukeZach TroutSteve EspineliEugene RP 24% 51% 25% MeauxRyan JeffcoatMike CasianLarry HinshawAlex RP 24% 54% 22% WilliamsMitch AlmanzaArmando WagnerBilly SanchezJonathan SP 44% 48% 7% LangstonMark JohnsonRandy KoufaxSandy JohnsonRandy SP 29% 49% 22% KoosmanJerry WellsDavid FinleyChuck ZitoBarry SP 18% 62% 20% BohanonBrian AlvarezWilson HamptonMike MatosOsiris RP 10% 49% 41% MabeusChris PattersonDave AcevedoJose MeddersBrandon RP 8% 42% 51% DoughertyJim SaladinMiguel GryboskiKevin RunzlerDan RP 9% 42% 50% AlmanzaArmando ClarkeStan JohnsonTyler JoaquinWaldis RP 8% 39% 54% VasquezCarlos WigginsScott JacksonGrant OrtizRamon SP 18% 43% 40% SparksSteve RossMark YoshiiMasato PucetasKevin SP 9% 55% 36% JohnsonJoe FireovidSteve BeggChris ValdezMerkin RP 5% 25% 70% SmithRoy ReichertDan HendersonRyan MartinezJoe SP 5% 39% 56% SorensenLary MoehlerBrian MacdonaldMichael PalazzoloSteve RP 3% 24% 73% GreenSean VaughanWilliam BauerGreg SosaHenry SP 4% 26% 70% MilackiBob JacobsenLandon KylesStan KinneyMatt SP 2% 19% 79% MartinezDennis HellingRick TollbergBrian TannerClayton SP 0% 13% 87% GramanAlex KozlowskiBen GeorgeChris HammondSteven SP 0% 2% 98% ProchaskaMike TeutNate RobertsChris JohnsonSteven SP 0% 0% 100% BaylissJonah KnightBrandon RomanoMike Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 LincecumTim 91% 100% 97% 1% 99% RomoSergio 56% 92% 76% 7% 80% WilsonBrian 52% 93% 85% 1% 91% AffeldtJeremy 50% 91% 48% 0% 83% CainMatt 43% 98% 20% 0% 82% BumgarnerMadison 13% 72% 1% 5% 80% EspineliEugene 19% 69% 1% 20% 87% HinshawAlex 24% 66% 90% 0% 72% SanchezJonathan 13% 73% 91% 0% 61% JohnsonRandy 7% 51% 37% 17% 29% ZitoBarry 2% 42% 4% 0% 57% MatosOsiris 10% 52% 5% 4% 59% MeddersBrandon 5% 36% 5% 0% 59% RunzlerDan 6% 36% 71% 0% 64% JoaquinWaldis 5% 39% 12% 0% 83% OrtizRamon 5% 34% 7% 15% 38% PucetasKevin 1% 28% 0% 4% 55% ValdezMerkin 3% 23% 15% 0% 63% MartinezJoe 0% 16% 0% 3% 62% PalazzoloSteve 2% 21% 1% 0% 61% SosaHenry 1% 12% 0% 0% 40% KinneyMatt 0% 5% 2% 3% 5% TannerClayton 0% 2% 0% 0% 32% HammondSteven 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% JohnsonSteven 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Extrapolated Career Statistics Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ CainMatt 186 157 0 3.68 518 516 3285 2944 336 1291 2750 118 LincecumTim 198 85 0 3.25 441 437 2913 2335 196 1067 3331 134 SanchezJonathan 99 114 0 4.48 358 292 1639 1513 184 845 1759 97 ZitoBarry 193 179 0 4.11 496 494 2988 2767 324 1294 2215 107 Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ RenteriaEdgar .283 .340 .394 2293 8760 1261 2477 469 28 150 1015 769 1244 290 110 92 SanchezFreddy .294 .329 .409 1072 4098 544 1204 258 23 56 488 200 506 13 10 93 RowandAaron .274 .334 .435 1660 5583 757 1529 347 18 172 753 357 1182 68 28 98 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
These projections were sponsored in part by:
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 06, 2010 at 11:56 PM | 131 comment(s)
Related News: San Francisco, ZIPS
Related News: San Francisco, ZIPS
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PC strikes again. It's a ####### double standard that doesn't help anyone. It draws more attention to the perceived difference.
I do apologize for distracting the thread, however. This will be my final post on the subject. It can be redacted as well, as I'm only really interested in addressing the person who deleted my post.
Advertisers can be picky about what kind of content is in pages with their ads. Part of the reason we're not supposed to swear here.
And to say something on topic, Lincecum's year projection is pretty ridiculous. I wonder how much it will improve his career projection if he hits it.
As Denzel Washington's lawyer character said in Philadelphia, "Now, explain it to me like I'm a four-year-old."
So...you have 8 hitters that "average" OPS+ just a shade above 100. Granted, I'm not factoring in defense or looking at bench. But that's not a horrible place to start from if you buy into ZIPS, regardless of how you got here.
RJ: 406 IP, 349 K, 223 BB, 98 ERA+
JS: 413 IP, 429 K, 214 BB, 96 ERA+
Langston's first good season wasn't until he was 26, and of course we all know about Koufax (though that comp still seems odd.)
He's compared to lefties that were mediocre at a young age but struck out lots of guys and walked lots of guys. Lincecum is compared to guys that were awesome at that age. The fact that the latter comps wound up being better is probably a funny coincidence.
Well, John Bowker, listed as one of your 'average' hitters, is out. He's a converted first baseman that is so far from playing an adequate LF that it's comical that he even got a CF rating. I'm not familiar with what's inside the ZIPS box but I presume that the system oversells him by dint of being unaware that he's been a strict platoon player in MLB - to the tune of 90%+ of his career PA's coming with the platoon advantage.
That being said, I suppose that the following might not be the worst offense in the NL next season:
CF Rowand
2B Sanchez
LF Lewis
1B Sandoval
3B DeRosa
RF Schierholtz
SS Renteria
C Posey
While bearing in mind that of the listed 8 hitters (as well as everybody else with any shot of making the team), only 2 players are projected for more than 500 ABs (Sandoval (rightly) and Sanchez, with 506). Color me unoptimistic about Fred Lewis' chances of exceeding a 100 OPS+ or getting 400 ABs. Every single one of these guys (excepting Sandoval) is either a late-20's "prospect" or a regular on the wrong side of 30 - in other words, a strong candidate to decline. There's not a single Giants hitter who'd make me want to take the over on the ZIPS OPS projection. And beyond that (poor) lineup, Uribe's a worthwhile backup, and I think Ishikawa merits a roster spot, but it gets pretty incredibly ugly down the bench.
Bowker is not a "converted firstbaseman," he's a career outfielder who was forced to play first base (poorly) because Lewis and Winn were playing well and the team was grasping at straws to help the offense. Also, Bowker has actually player center field as a professional (24 AA games in 2007), which is probably where the projection is coming from.
Just swap Dan Runzler's projection with Alex Hinshaw's and then they both will actually make sense. By the way Eugene Espineli's projection is the one that makes the least sense of all. The guy has crapped out of baseball and sucked in his very limited time in the majors.
In NCAA ball, Bowker played LF, strictly. He was also something like the third-to-fifth best hitter on the team, behind (at least) Troy Tulowitzki and the actual best hitter on that team, Jason Vargas.
My buddy just drafted Runzler in our dynasty DMB sim league, he is not going to be very happy when he sees these numbers since he planned on Runzler being a major part of his bullpen in 2010.
- Bowker played a bunch of games there in 2007.
- Runzler was absolutely horrible before 2009 and most of his play in 2009 and 80% of that play was as a 24-year-old in A-ball.
- Espineli has been usable since becoming full-time reliever. If 16 IP of 87 ERA+ eliminated you from future use, then you're going to be chopping off a crapload of usable relievers.
- Swapping Hinshaw and Runzler only makes sense if you think things such as level of play, age, sample size, and prior history are irrelevant.
- Bowker's had such little playing time in the majors that the platoon splits have absolutely jack-#### predictive value. The ideal split for predicting Bowker's platoon splits, if you only had major league data is 97% generic, 3% actual. His splits in the minors were normal.
- ZiPS sees Sanchez as super-risky, but his top comps are sort of fun. As one might imagine, the rest of the list is significantly worse (and thus, the projections are considerably worse), but it was crazy to see Sanchez have 2 of the best starters of all-time in the top 3 and 2 guys traded for each other.
A semi-OT Q: Mind running Adam LaRoche's projection for us? He's been linked to the Giants this offseason and I'm not sure there is a big difference between him and Garko.
And to say something on topic, Lincecum's year projection is pretty ridiculous. I wonder how much it will improve his career projection if he hits it.
ZiPS has always loved Lincecum. Had him at 10-5, 3.28 going into 2008. I was actually quite a bit anxious at the time, as I was projecting a player with limited major league time to be 4th in baseball in ERA:
2008
Pitcher ERA
Peavy 2.99
Webb 3.01
Santana 3.04
Lincecum 3.28
I didn't do a 2007 projection (I felt I could get away with not doing one), but even that would've been a 3.71.
...with a shovel.
You system missed Pablo Sandoval's breakout in 2008 and thus way under forecasted him for 2009. Your system is again under forecasting him in 2010 as there is just no good reason to expect him to not continue to get better. Last year his OPS+ was 142 and it is heading north and is not going to drop to 129. In my view Miguel Cabrera is the best comp for the Panda.
Likewise you are missing Dan Runzler's breakout in 2009 and thus are way under forecasting him for 2010. I was right last year on Panda and I am going to right again this year on Runzler.
If breakouts for young players were that much more significant, then the weighting that is the most accurate would weight the most recent season far more than it does. Recent years are more important for younger players, but not to the degree that you can just throw out the second season prior, which is what you have to do to project Runzler as an awesome pitcher.
The majority of Runzler's breakout was as an A-ball repeater that was way too old for the league. He's pitched all of 20-some innings at age-appropriate competition. If your model isn't wary of situations like this, your model isn't taking uncertainty into account. You end up with Vaughn Eshelmans being All-Stars.
That the model didn't see Sandoval's eventual performance as the likeliest one doesn't make the assumptions incorrect - projections are realistically a range of probabilities, not a single number. (And conversely, a "correct" projection can actually be a bad one). There is no Calvinism in baseball.
***
Dan, will there be a write-up of the Uribe re-up? I think he's turned into an underrated player...
Sorry if I offended you by implying that ZIPS wasn't perfect, Dan. Keep up the good work.
Dan is to Sanchez what Sam M is to Ollie Perez.....
how close was Ollie to being a Sanchez comp?
GRM - didn't you make predictions for many Giants for 2009? You could post them here comparing to Zips 2009.
(for the record, my projection for Sandoval 2010 is in the Matt Holliday thread here: .330/.370/.512 shockingly close to Zips!.. I drastically underestimated everyone else's walk rate but that's understandable)
Very interesting to note the defense projections here which indicate that Uribe is a better SS than Renteria and Sandoval is as good as DeRosa or Uribe at 3B.
Giants are certainly going to be unaffected by OF injuries. They have about 7 roughly interchangable parts (although only 2 decent CF... and one makes Rowand look like a decent hitter)
A serious question, how many baseball professionals projected Panda's breakout? How many baseball professionals projected Panda to become anything close to being the player he has become?
How many baseball professionals are projecting Runzler to breakout?
I'm all for listening to what the pros, the coaches, the scouts, etc, have to say, the problem with a manichean choice of baseball professionals over ZiPS or any projection, is that the pros often aren't exactly unanimous in their judgement, nor are they necessarily more accurate. Also, the converse of a manichean choice of projection systems over the pros.
However, that is said about every high-average protostar who swings at everything.
To my knowledge, NO ONE predicted that Sandoval would adjust to pitches out of the strike zone by taking more walks. But his walk rate went from ~3% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2009. (minors walk rate ~5%)
Also, it more or less montonically increased during 2009. Zips expects it to be more like 6%.
On behalf of McCovey Chronicles, I hereby apologize for giantsrainman. He doesn't really understand regression to the mean or the fact that some possibility of collapse will drag the best players predictions down, every time.
That's OK. Even if he's not interested in the answer, many others less used to the vagaries of projection the future might be.
Also, LaRoche to SF is 277/352/494.
I'll take that! It's wrong, but I'll take it.
In recent years, I'm thinking first of Jeff Francoeur 2005 and Corey Patterson 2003.
Both were highly prized prospects who scouts loved. Both had huge breakouts (age 21 and 23) as youngsters. Scout after scout, media figure after media figure, told us about these players were for real and they could get away with swinging at everything because they were special players.
Sandoval took his breakout and improved in every aspect. Most don't.
It's a 120 OPS+. His OPS+s in recent years are 123, 122, 109, 130, so it's not like ZiPS is being all that aggressive here.
Why is that, do you reckon? Talent? Desire? Sure *seems* like Pablo cares more than either Francouer or Patterson. Patterson often seemed half-asleep and Francouer, well, I think he's kind of dumb. That's totally subjective. Pablo seems neither dumb nor inattentive. Is it a matter of hand-eye coordination? I suppose it's impossible to know.
I know, it's logical. But I have a hard time believing that LaRoche will be putting too many balls in the Bay. Still, it's possible, and I'm all for it.
This is what gets me about the Red Sox trading LaRoche for Kotchman. To me that trade was a gross overpay, whether Kotchman fit in better as a backup or not.
So slightly better than Garko, probably coupled with slightly better defense.
I understand regression I just don't find it useful with regards to what I want from projections. I am interested in getting the most projections as close to right on as possible and am willing to live with the misses that happen due to collapse.
As for projection systems trying to pick out breakthrough players, that's how Gary Huckabay designed his (Vlad -- the fist projection system used by BP and around for a couple of years on RSB before that)
His system was in fact far better than any that I've ever seen at picking breakout player. But it wasn't actually a good projection system because it found reasons for optimism about an awful lot of players.
It also had the cute habit of trying to give Barry Bonds 900 plate appearances a year. A good idea of course but a tad tricky to manage.
With 2 notable exceptions (Sandoval and Lincecum) the rangels provided by the various projection systems provided the boundries for my projections with my judgment used to decide to go highend , lowend, or in the middle of these ranges. I think I ended up with as many high as low. Bow with both Panda and Franchise I projected both to exceed the high end of their projections and they both did.
Does ZiPS take into account things like BABIP and LOB% with its projections? Variations of FIP/tRA? GB/FB and LD rates?
BABIP yes. BABIP's been a big part since I started doing projections in 2002. I also use GB/FB/LD where available.
For ERA, I model the expected BABIP for the pitcher and then a variant of component ERA (so that hits are included). Actual ERA is contained as well, which varies depending on the sample size used (Component ERAs project actual ERA better than actual ERAs do, but a blend of mostly component and some actual does even better).
As for projection systems trying to pick out breakthrough players, that's how Gary Huckabay designed his (Vlad -- the fist projection system used by BP and around for a couple of years on RSB before that)
Modern projection systems do try to find breakouts, of course, we just communicate them in a different manner. For instance, the 13% chance of Sanchez having a 130 ERA+ or the 9% chance of Posey having a .375 OBP are in essence predicting breakouts.
If Dan's a jock, then clearly we can't take his math seriously.
Well, that's great but:
* your sample size is low (as described here, anyway). See if it happens again. And again. And again. And... - if it does, come back to us.
* while I'm criticizing your confidence, I'm not criticizing your methodology for a quick and dirty method. You're more invested in watching these players than the system - you should be able to add a little bit to the projection (see my earlier comment) if you're unbiased. [The brilliant Tom Tango has done some work on this front...] Projection systems, though, can cover a much broader territory than any individual...
He's a Burriss fan, isn't he?
And if that, in fact, was true for major leaguers, then it would show up in the results. In the world of MLB reality, when something suddenly clicks, most players regress back to where it was before.
I don't care how small the sample size is or what the past numbers have shown;
That's not an argument, that's evidence that you're an idiot.
This matters because some of is are in sim leagues in which we're forced to use this piece of #### projection system.
I'm sorry that the projection systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE) attempt to project reality, not your arbitrary fantasies. Or goal is to be accurate, not please the rubes (and from the cogent arguments you present, rube would be a very kind dig).
Maybe you guys should switch and get CHONE projection disk from SG (oh, wait, Sean is in on the Get Runzler Conspiracy by projecting him to have a 4.85 ERA). Or maybe get together with the other owners in your league and make the What We Want Players We Like To Be Projected At disk and be confused when 80 starters are projected to have an ERA under 4 and 60 guys are going to hit 30 home runs.
And I thought *I* liked Dan Runzler...
A large piece of the Giants pitching staff last year including Zito, Wilson, Affeldt, Howry, Medders, and Miller. I also under forcasted Sandoval even though I exceeded all of the projection systems. This year I see Panda reaching .400 wOBA.
Er, you forgot to mention the decidedly unfilthy 4.9 BB/9.
"How dare you nerds have opinions about baseball!"
Seriously, if you don't like the projection, ignore it and love Runzler in a manly fashion anyway. You just got mad at an algorithm.
If it's any consolation, he'll probably put 3/4 of them there in the space of two or three weeks.
Are you really going to crow about how a 24 year old dominated A-ball on his second go round?
The guy walks the ballpark. If you had a dollar for every flame-thrower who couldn't find the plate that imploded when they reached MLB you'd be a very rich man.
The trouble with throwing out everything before the "click" and moving ahead is that those numbers are what got the guy into pro ball. They're going to be pretty good, reflecting the fact that he was good enough to sign and promote to whatever spot he was standing when the clouds parted. Also, the click is usually a lot more drawn out than that, maybe more of a long grating sound or a Vincent Price hinge creak that lasts a few months. Oh, and you'll need to produce an example or three that didn't involve the addition of 3" to the bicep by cutting back on pizza.
At any rate, this is silly: if you want to talk about a click that destroys everything that came before it then you should start reading up on arm injuries.
On the flip side (again having kept my projections within the range of the projection systems I overestimated Winn, Renteria, Aurilia, Ishikawa, Burriss, Frandsen, Schierholtz, and Bowker. I was pretty close on Timmy, Matty, Dirty, Molina, Rowand, and Velez. Now that I think about It I underforecasted Uribe and Torres as did any and every one I know. If I had not let the projection systems and my heart influence me I would have never gone as high as I did on Ishikawa, Burriss, Frandsen, Schierholtz, and Bowker. My eyes and judgement told me they were not ready to perform at the MLB level like their MLE's and or SSS MLB's would indicate but I let the projection systems and my heart lead me a stray. I did indeed just flat out miss the decline in Winn, Renteria, and Aurilia but I was hardly alone in this.
It will also project Ben Zobrist to hit .313/.421/.657.
Also, licorice dildos!
To be complete I overestimated Randy Johnson as I like everyone else I know wasn't expecting almost 2 HRs per 9 innings.
I'll go out on a limb and say not well
jfish, I apologize. I didn't mean to offend you - it was meant as a joke. I probably should have thrown in a ;-) after it to let you know that.
Warn me when you're going to write something like that while I'm at work in a quiet office.
TOC, are you the same guy who argued that Carlos Peguero should be on Goldstein's Top 11 List (despite Peguero's 172 K's in 544 PA in High-A) because, hey, Mark Reynolds did it? It wouldn't surprise me at all.
Lincecum/Pujols have longer track records, I suppose you can argue Cain has a longer track record than Greinke to get the benefit of doubt despite those high FIP/tRA numbers but I just have a hard time understand how these things add up. At least with the Zobrist argument we had, part of my side was scouting reports and improvements in his hitting approach. If it's purely numbers based, Cain looks to me like someone who should regress.
There's just no reason why an mlb pitcher wouldn't just challenge a guy like Bond.
It's like Sam talking about Ollie Perez, or how some deluded Mets fanboys talked about Parnell earlier this year
come back to me when Runzler can get his walks under control
Do you mean Howard? Or do you mean Daniel Murphy? Or did I miss something?
not as good as Ian Kennedy
you also forgot his 4.87 bb/9
generally speaking coming to the MLB:
1: That k/89 will go down
2: that bb/9 will go up
3: That BABIP will gravitate to league average
4: that HR/9 will go up
We are talking about a guy with all of 20 innings AA and above who is 24.
There were 16 guys in the Cal league last year with more than 10 k/9 (45+ ip)
9 in the FSL One guy had 14/9
He's walked way too many batters for someone whose seen mostly A ball guys
He's walked 12 in 20 AA/AAA/MLB innings
Another active lefty with filthy stuff at age 22, threw 198 MLB innings, with 239 Ks, and an ERA+ of 145, and his control was not as bad as Runzlers in the minors, but its eaten him alive in the majors.
So again, come back to me when he controls the strike zone
My bad, Megdal talking about Ollie
I think most projection systems kill these guys
I'd guess his projection would look a lot like Thole's: .273/.335/.360
Heh, you're not bad. I think you're wrong at times, but you're certainly not an ####### about it.
Which flavor?
Also, twizzlers suck.
Do you mean Howard?
My bad, Megdal talking about Ollie
I'm glad someone rose to my defense here! Thanks, Joe! Just for the record: I haven't given up all hope that Ollie can turn in a decent season or two at some point, but that's about it: some bit of hope, for decent performance.
The less said about the whole Daniel Murphy thing, the better . . . .
160+ - 1 in 21,772,426
140+ - 1 in 14,964
130+ - 1 in 918
120+ - 1 in 249
110+ - 1%
100+ - 5%
90+ - 19%
80+ - 53%
60+ - 86%
ZiPS reports a lot of wacky things. Bond's odds of hitting 60 home runs in 2010:
1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390
Essentially, these are about the odds that a pandemic kills every male between 8 and 80 with the exception of Bond, whose genetic makeup protects him from the disease and MLB decides to go on with the season, consisting of Bond and 800 of the finest 8-year-olds in little league.
Of course, this scenario is preposterous; Dan Runzler would no doubt find a cure.
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