BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

The biggest questions surrounding the Cardinals for 2010 look to involve the pitching rotation. Carpenter was his usual amazing self last season, but he's still a pitcher that has always had health questions surrounding him. With a bit of fortune, Carpenter remaining healthy, Garcia being healthy and forcing his way onto the team, and Penny and perhaps another third-tier free agent being great Dave Duncan Specials and the rotation looks a lot better, but this is looking like the team's sore point this season. The bullpen is also missing a dominant reliever or two.

The offense, however, should keep the Cards in the thick of things in a rather weak division. Pujols and Holliday gives any team a great head start and while there aren't any other stars in the supporting cast (though Ludwick should be better), there also aren't any serious holes and most positions have viable fill-ins. Assuming of course, there's no repeat of the 2009 3B situation, with the stubbornly sticking through some pretty awful Joe Thurston play.

In this division, the Cards look like an 85-90 win team, which makes them contenders, but there are a few places where some things going horribly wrong could drop that a lot.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 
Albert Pujols            1b  30  .333  .442  .635 149 531 109 177 38  1 40 138 102  60  5  2   185 
Matt Holliday            lf  30  .308  .387  .528 142 562 104 173 38  4 26 125  66 112 10  3   143 
Ryan Ludwick             rf  31  .282  .348  .511 138 468  74 132 27  1 26  97  43 114  2  2   127 
Skip Schumaker*          2b  30  .299  .355  .404 145 488  75 146 27  3  6  49  42  64  4  2   103 
Allen Craig              lf  25  .279  .330  .434 134 516  70 144 27  1 17  78  35 105  2  1   103 
Yadier Molina            c   27  .289  .352  .389 133 460  42 133 23  1  7  63  42  42  3  2    99 
Joe Mather               rf  27  .261  .327  .433 101 349  47  91 20  2 12  54  29  70  5  1   102 
David Freese             3b  27  .265  .326  .429 105 389  57 103 21  2 13  66  33  92  2  1   101 
Colby Rasmus*            cf  23  .260  .327  .411 138 489  74 127 25  2 15  65  46 105  8  2    97 
Nick Stavinoha           1b  28  .274  .313  .411 128 438  50 120 23  2 11  70  25  73  2  0    93 
Ruben Gotay#             2b  27  .246  .346  .377 122 334  41  82 19  2  7  46  50  65  2  3    94 
Daniel Descalso*         2b  23  .266  .326  .393 135 504  70 134 29  4  9  71  40  78  3  3    92 
Jon Jay*                 cf  25  .276  .329  .388 120 467  63 129 22  3  8  54  31  68 10  6    92 
Tyler Henley*            rf  25  .264  .319  .395  97 352  44  93 21  2  7  46  26  63  4  3    91 
Brendan Ryan             ss  28  .274  .326  .372 122 387  59 106 18  4  4  37  27  59 11  4    87 
Julio Lugo               ss  34  .259  .326  .369  93 317  41  82 17  3  4  37  31  55 10  2    86 
Bryan Anderson*          c   23  .258  .315  .375  75 248  30  64 13  2  4  27  20  53  1  0    84 
Shane Robinson           cf  25  .270  .318  .370 102 370  50 100 19  3  4  43  23  49 11  4    84 
Daryl Jones*             lf  23  .251  .323  .359 105 390  49  98 16  4  6  39  35  96  8  4    83 
Mark Hamilton*           1b  25  .243  .313  .371  98 345  36  84 17  0  9  48  32  94  0  1    83 
Steve Hill               c   25  .249  .290  .387 103 406  41 101 19  2 11  52  23 107  1  1    80 
Mark Shorey*             rf  25  .255  .300  .366 116 369  33  94 18  1  7  47  21  92  1  1    78 
Donovan Solano           ss  22  .255  .305  .324 135 510  64 130 22  2  3  44  33  93  3  1    69 
Peter Kozma              ss  22  .236  .296  .322 137 521  62 123 24  3  5  55  44 126  5  3    66 
Jason LaRue              c   36  .214  .297  .329  57 140  15  30  7  0  3  15  12  34  1  0    68 
Tyler Greene             ss  26  .229  .281  .346  85 301  37  69 13  2  6  29  17  91  7  2    67 
Matt Pagnozzi            c   27  .229  .286  .320  80 253  22  58 11  0  4  28  18  70  1  1    63 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      
Pujols                  Vg/97                                                   
Holliday                                                Av/86                   
Ludwick                                                 Av/56           Av/56   
Schumaker*                      Fr/105                  Av/113  Fr/85   Fr/109  
Craig                   Av/82           Fr/129          Av/71                   
Molina             Vg                                                           
Mather                  Av/148          Pr/160          Av/98   Pr/127  Av/98   
Freese                  Av/99           Av/99                                   
Rasmus*                                                         Vg/145          
Stavinoha               Av/97                           Av/134          Fr/134  
Gotay#                          Pr/138  Av/142  Pr/163                          
Descalso*                       Av/133  Av/118                                  
Jay*                                                    Vg/55   Av/55   Vg/55   
Henley*                                                 Av/192  Fr/131  Av/131  
Ryan                            Av/80   Av/80   Vg/80   Av/102  Fr/102  Av/102  
Lugo                            Av/128  Av/128  Fr/128                          
Anderson*          Av                                                           
Robinson                                                Vg/83   Av/94   Vg/83   
Jones*                                                  Vg/63   Fr/123  Vg/63   
Hamilton*               Av/107                                                  
Hill               Fr   Fr/126                          Fr/126                  
Shorey*                                                 Fr/134          Fr/134  
Solano                          Av/119  Av/119  Av/137                          
Kozma                                           Av/147                          
LaRue              Av   Fr/114                                                  
Greene                          Av/124  Av/124  Av/124                          
Pagnozzi           Av                                                           

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3
PujolsAlbert       1B   99%    1%    0%    0%    0%     ThomasFrank     MurrayEddie      PowellBoog
HollidayMatt       LF   74%   20%    4%    1%    0%      HisleLarry    FosterGeorge   GilkeyBernard
LudwickRyan        RF   35%   35%   16%    9%    5%  BerroaGeronimo  MaldonadoCandy  LitwhilerDanny
SchumakerSkip      2B   28%   23%   21%   18%   10%      GantnerJim      WalkerTodd     LorettaMark
CraigAllen         LF    5%   17%   22%   28%   28%      BrownOllie      NadyXavier       JoseFelix
MatherJoe          RF    4%   17%   23%   29%   27%     MonroeCraig HammondsJeffrey        KressRed
MolinaYadier        C   17%   36%   26%   16%    5%     WilsonCraig        AzcueJoe HernandezMichel
FreeseDavid        3B    7%   20%   27%   27%   19%        HelmsWes      BoyerClete    WhitneyPinky
RasmusColby        CF   12%   18%   33%   26%   11%     BostonDaryl      ReidJessie      CurtisChad
StavinohaNick      1B    1%    5%    9%   30%   55%         BelkTim      JamesChris       TocaJorge
JayJonathan        CF    5%    8%   22%   33%   32%        DayBoots  HamiltonDarryl   SchumakerSkip
DescalsoDaniel     2B    7%   10%   17%   30%   36%CatalanottoFrank  GustineFrankie    ThomasDerrel
RyanBrendan        SS    4%   15%   37%   31%   13%    GarciaCarlos   BartlettJason    TaverasFrank
LugoJulio          SS    8%   20%   35%   25%   12%    PatekFreddieMaranvilleRabbit    BelangerMark
HenleyTyler        RF    0%    2%    6%   19%   72%      JohnsonRoy   CummingsMidre     SinisiVince
GotayRuben         2B    6%   10%   18%   31%   35%    HubbardGlenn  MenechinoFrank      IrelandTim
RobinsonShane      CF    2%    5%   20%   37%   36%   GlanvilleDoug    EllisonJason      JonesCleon
AndersonBryan       C    2%   14%   27%   39%   18%  FitzgeraldMike  O'HalloranGreg     CastroRamon
JonesDaryl         LF    0%    1%    4%   12%   83%  KoslofskiKevin       AllenLuke    LusaderScott
HamiltonMark       1B    0%    1%    3%   15%   81%     RolisonNate     JimenezLuis    DaubachBrian
HillSteve           C    1%    7%   16%   36%   40%      BordersPat     SkinnerJoel     PalaciosRey
ShoreyMark         RF    0%    0%    1%    4%   94%       ReedKeith     ShockeyGreg        BrownDee
SolanoDonovan      SS    0%    2%    8%   24%   67%   StevensonJohn    HoffmanGlenn      CorreiaRod
GreeneTyler        SS    0%    2%    8%   22%   68%      AbbottKurt    KlassenDanny      PettiniJoe
LaRueJason          C    0%    3%    7%   28%   62%        LakerTim    DifeliceMike        HeganJim
KozmaPeter         SS    0%    1%    5%   18%   76%        BogarTim   PeraltaJhonny  VillanuevaJuan
PagnozziMatt        C    0%    0%    2%    8%   90%      MolinaJose    DifeliceMike       KratzErik

Name             .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
PujolsAlbert          89%     99%     99%     98%     20%      0%     86%      0%
HollidayMatt          63%     68%     64%     51%     20%      3%     22%      0%
LudwickRyan           27%     17%     53%     23%      1%      0%     27%      0%
SchumakerSkip         50%     24%      1%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%
CraigAllen            22%      5%      7%      3%      1%      0%      3%      0%
MatherJoe              9%      5%      6%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%
MolinaYadier          34%     21%      1%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%
FreeseDavid           11%      5%      6%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%
RasmusColby            8%      5%      3%      1%      0%      0%      1%      0%
StavinohaNick         17%      2%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
JayJonathan           20%      6%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%
DescalsoDaniel        10%      4%      2%      1%      2%      2%      0%      0%
RyanBrendan           16%      3%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%
LugoJulio              8%      5%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
HenleyTyler           10%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
GotayRuben             3%     15%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
RobinsonShane         15%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
AndersonBryan          9%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
JonesDaryl             5%      3%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%
HamiltonMark           3%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
HillSteve              4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
ShoreyMark             6%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
SolanoDonovan          4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
GreeneTyler            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
LaRueJason             2%      4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
KozmaPeter             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%
PagnozziMatt           2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 
Adam Wainwright           28   3.15  15   9  31  31   205.2  193   72  14   59  184  136 
Chris Carpenter           35   3.47   6   4  15  15    93.1   90   36   7   24   66  123 
John Smoltz               43   3.95   6   5  19  18   100.1  102   44  10   23   90  108 
Brad Penny                32   4.63   8   9  26  26   151.2  165   78  16   50   95   93 
Kyle Lohse                31   4.65   8  10  28  27   153.0  168   79  18   46   93   92 
Jaime Garcia*             23   4.75   4   4  16  12    66.1   69   35   8   30   51   90 
Lance Lynn                23   4.85   5   7  28  23   118.2  124   64  14   55   77   88 
Rich Hill*                30   4.92   5   6  20  20    93.1   92   51  11   54   76   86 
Todd Wellemeyer           31   5.05   6   9  30  23   133.2  149   75  19   55   91   85 
Ben Jukich*               27   5.23   7   9  28  22   129.0  146   75  18   56   82   83 
P.J. Walters              25   5.26   4   6  20  15    87.1   97   51  13   37   64   81 
Evan MacLane*             27   5.39   6  11  29  24   148.2  183   89  24   36   66   79 
Mitchell Boggs            26   5.40   6  11  29  26   145.0  170   87  17   72   86   79 
Charlie Zink              30   5.49   8  12  27  25   142.2  163   87  15   70   53   78 
Trey Hearne               26   5.69   6  11  30  21   134.1  164   85  17   59   67   75 
Adam Ottavino             24   5.81   5  11  27  27   131.2  151   85  17   83   87   74 
Ryan Kulik*               24   5.88   5  10  23  21   108.2  136   71  15   45   47   73 
Tyler Norrick*            26   6.08   3   6  15  14    71.0   79   48  10   51   46   70 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 
Trever Miller*            37   3.67   2   1  67   0    41.2   36   17   4   16   41  117 
Ryan Franklin             37   3.80   5   4  65   0    66.1   65   28   6   21   44  113 
Kyle McClellan            31   3.86   4   4  63   0    70.0   68   30   6   28   53  111 
Dennys Reyes*             33   3.99   1   1  67   0    38.1   36   17   3   18   32  107 
Jason Motte               28   4.22   4   4  70   0    64.0   61   30   8   28   67  101 
Blake Hawksworth          27   4.38   3   3  58   0    63.2   66   31   7   25   43   98 
Charlie Manning*          31   4.39   2   2  52   0    55.1   53   27   6   29   46   97 
Royce Ring*               29   4.44   3   4  58   0    46.2   47   23   5   23   39   97 
Eduardo Sanchez           21   4.63   1   2  52   0    56.1   56   29   6   29   47   92 
Ian Ostlund*              31   4.64   1   1  31   0    52.1   55   27   7   18   39   92 
Oneli Perez               27   4.95   3   4  35   5    67.1   72   37  10   29   53   87 
Matthew Scherer           27   5.00   3   4  53   0    68.1   77   38   8   24   39   86 
Francisco Samuel          23   5.71   3   6  57   0    52.0   50   33   6   52   50   75 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3
WainwrightAdam     SP       82%   17%    1%      McDowellJack         PennyBrad       NagyCharles
CarpenterChris     SP       75%   22%    3%       RogersSteve        MadduxGreg          FaberRed
MillerTrever       RP       42%   42%   16%       OroscoJesse        CookDennis       GuthrieMark
FranklinRyan       RP       34%   50%   16%        LampDennis        LeachTerry        HergesMatt
McClellanKyle      RP       26%   58%   16%        WickmanBob        DedmonJeff      CapellanJose
SmoltzJohn         SP       49%   42%    9%     SchillingCurt         SuttonDon       MussinaMike
ReyesDennys        RP       31%   46%   23%      MillerTrever         EyreScott      McElroyChuck
MotteJason         RP       18%   55%   27%          DavisRon       DarwinDanny       JacksonMike
HawksworthBlake    RP       12%   44%   44%        QuallsChad        SmallAaron        LehrJustin
ManningCharlie     RP       15%   41%   44%       SnyderBrian        RomeroJ.C.      ThorntonMatt
RingRoyce          RP       10%   43%   47%           GlynnEd     JordanRicardo    LovingierKevin
SanchezEduardo     RP       10%   43%   47%       BowlesBrian       KoploveMike        SnyderBill
OstlundIan         RP        7%   42%   52%       ShouseBrian      MacDonaldBob    DarensbourgVic
LohseKyle          SP       10%   54%   35%       TerrellWalt      JohnsonJason    DriskillTravis
GarciaJaime        SP       17%   42%   41%      PerkinsVince     AffeldtJeremy        FilsonPete
LynnLance          SP        8%   48%   44%       SellersJeff     MendozaReynol     SeminaraFrank
PerezOneli         RP        2%   27%   71%       StevensDave     StephensJason         JonesJeff
SchererMatt        RP        3%   29%   69%      PhillipsTony     RenfroeLaddie       LizRadhames
WellemeyerTodd     SP        2%   38%   60%     SturtzeTanyon          LewisJim    FernandezJared
WaltersP.J.        SP        4%   33%   63%        CrouchMatt          MecheGil        KimSun-Woo
MacLaneEvan        SP        1%   20%   79%     MarshallRandy         LeekRandy       ShouseBrian
BoggsMitchell      SP        0%   21%   78%         WhiteSean       RobinsonDon      FulchinoJeff
HearneTrey         SP        0%   12%   88%        BauerPeter    CallawayMickey       JonesMarcus
SamuelFrancisco    RP        1%   13%   86%        LangdonTed    PimentelRafael         BanksJosh
OttavinoAdam       SP        0%    9%   90%     BridgesDonnie       BuckleLarry      JeffersonJim
KulikRyan          SP        0%    7%   93%       CromerJason      DicksonJason      IsenbergKurt
NorrickTyler       SP        0%    9%   91%         MillsRyan       RoqueRafael        GrayDennis

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9 <1
WainwrightAdam          52%       94%       50%       9%       96%
CarpenterChris          43%       89%        6%      37%       86%
MillerTrever            42%       78%       72%       5%       73%
FranklinRyan            28%       74%        2%      12%       73%
McClellanKyle           20%       74%       10%       1%       84%
SmoltzJohn              18%       69%       51%      47%       65%
ReyesDennys             31%       69%       33%       2%       75%
MotteJason              14%       60%       87%       0%       50%
HawksworthBlake          9%       49%        2%       2%       65%
ManningCharlie          10%       48%       26%       0%       67%
RingRoyce               10%       45%       26%       0%       63%
SanchezEduardo           7%       45%       27%       0%       58%
OstlundIan               7%       41%        8%       8%       49%
LohseKyle                1%       29%        0%       8%       46%
GarciaJaime              5%       33%       13%       1%       48%
LynnLance                1%       21%        0%       0%       49%
PerezOneli               2%       24%       14%       0%       39%
SchererMatt              2%       20%        0%       5%       53%
WellemeyerTodd           0%       10%        1%       0%       26%
WaltersP.J.              1%       12%        5%       0%       30%
MacLaneEvan              0%        5%        0%      38%       17%
BoggsMitchell            0%        4%        0%       0%       51%
HearneTrey               0%        2%        0%       0%       39%
SamuelFrancisco          1%        7%       67%       0%       62%
OttavinoAdam             0%        1%        0%       0%       40%
KulikRyan                0%        1%        0%       0%       28%
NorrickTyler             0%        2%        1%       0%       32%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+
PujolsAlbert     .324 .424 .600 2776 10110   2011   3278  701  21  681 2312  1706   1186  96  49  168

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+
CarpenterChris    152    99     0  3.83    364    344 2262   2259    225    649   1695    116
LohseKyle         124   137     0  4.68    415    386 2251   2481    284    696   1401     94
WainwrightAdam    165   120     3  3.71    427    364 2422   2445    225    762   1934    115

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Cubs
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2010 at 02:35 PM | 54 comment(s)
Related News: St Louis, ZIPS

Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. bjhanke

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 03:56 PM (#3447963)

Being from STL, I was going to write a longish comment, but these are just real good predictions, IMO. I do think that Ludwick, hitting behind Pujols and Holliday, may overperform on RBI, but that's about it. And he's a pain to predict anyway because of the injury history. I mean, you can, in theory, treat 2009 as a Sophomore Slump, although the player was 30 years old. Anyway, nice job. - Brock

2. FP Santangelo was underappreciated

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:02 PM (#3447974)

No ODDIBE for Rich Hill? I'm curious as to what kind of upside he has left.

3. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:08 PM (#3447982)

Suffice it to say, Pujols has by far the best projection of any hitter I've done so far (Astros, A's, Angels, Jays, Brewers, Braves to go). By my count, Pujols has a 33-point lead in OPS+, 19 points in OBP, 63 points in SLG and 2.41 runs created/27 outs.

4. heyyoo

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3448009)

The metronome like quality of his excellence will do that.

5. Juan V is the mustard of your doom!

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:27 PM (#3448013)

PujolsAlbert .324 .424 .600 2776 10110 2011 3278 701 21 681 2312 1706 1186 96 49 168

So, is this a Hall of Fame career? :-)

6. jfish26101

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:31 PM (#3448018)

Manny still 2nd in terms of hitters?

7. Mike Green

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:40 PM (#3448028)

"Suffice it to say, Pujols has by far the best projection of any hitter I've done so far (Astros, A's, Angels, Jays, Brewers, Braves to go)."

Oh, that explains it. Vernon Wells yet to come- some long-term contracts work out better than others.

8. Dayn

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:46 PM (#3448045)

Yeah, these look largely spot-on to me. I might take the under on Ludwick in terms of OPS+, and I think Penny will be a bit better than projected. The bullpen and bench are my primary concerns.

9. bjhanke

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:50 PM (#3448050)

"So, is this a Hall of Fame career? :-)"

Well, Albert has to pile some up so he can lend about a quarter of it to Yadier Molina and get both of them in.

10. Johnny Clash

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 04:51 PM (#3448051)

701 career doubles would be 5th-most ever.

11. Jimenez > Soriano

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 06:44 PM (#3448217)

Anyone have any idea why Rasmus' second half sucked? I'll still take the over though.

12. Moses thinks he knows what the hell he's doing

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3448226)

I would bet a large sum of money that Dave Duncan will fix Rich Hill.

13. Patriot87

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3448227)

Pujols is the king.

14. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3448233)

That Pujols projection is insane. It boggles the mind, in fact, you could say it was mind boggling!!

185 OPS+ is the highest I have seen in the period I have been following ZiPS projections. Is this a historical record , Dan? Or did one of the Bonds seasons creep over? What about in terms of raw OPS?

15. Rays&Sox;

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 07:02 PM (#3448237)

Rasmus had a deep heel bruise that hampered him most of the second half. He took 4 cortisone shots in the heel to keep playing. I'll take the over also.

16. JPWF13

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 07:22 PM (#3448256)

Holliday's 3 comps are a troika of cliff divers

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 07:22 PM (#3448257)

Projected OPSs over 1 since 2004 (2002 and 2003 were lost due to a computer crash):

1.231 - Bonds, 2005
1.162 - Bonds, 2006
1.141 - Bonds, 2004
1.115 - Pujols, 2004
1.094 - Pujols, 2005
1.085 - Pujols, 2006
1.077 - Pujols, 2010
1.076 - Helton, 2004
1.065 - Helton, 2005
1.066 - Pujols, 2007
1.038 - Pujols, 2009
1.028 - Helton, 2006
1.028 - Howard, 2008
1.024 - Howard, 2007
1.025 - Pujols, 2008
1.022 - Hafner, 2007
1.019 - Ramirez, 2004
1.016 - Ortiz, 2007
1.008 - Ramirez, 2007
1.005 - Giambi, 2004
1.002 - Bonds, 2007

18. danielj

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 07:30 PM (#3448267)

How many ways are there to say Pujols is great? He has a 98% chance of having an OPS+ of 140? 98%? Holy crap.

19. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 07:35 PM (#3448270)

1.231 - Bonds, 2005
1.162 - Bonds, 2006
1.141 - Bonds, 2004
1.115 - Pujols, 2004
1.094 - Pujols, 2005
1.085 - Pujols, 2006
1.077 - Pujols, 2010
1.076 - Helton, 2004
1.065 - Helton, 2005
1.066 - Pujols, 2007
1.038 - Pujols, 2009
1.028 - Helton, 2006
1.028 - Howard, 2008
1.024 - Howard, 2007
1.025 - Pujols, 2008
1.022 - Hafner, 2007
1.019 - Ramirez, 2004
1.016 - Ortiz, 2007
1.008 - Ramirez, 2007
1.005 - Giambi, 2004
1.002 - Bonds, 2007

Whats the PF for old Busch compared to new Busch? Or were those projected as higher scoring leagues?

Bonds 2005 is nutters.

20. BobbyS

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 07:44 PM (#3448281)

Funny, there are at least 3 guys on that list from each year, 2004-2007, 2 from 2008, yet only one (Pujols) from 2009 and 2010.

21. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 07:52 PM (#3448287)

So Smoltz would still be a good idea for this team...or anyone really.

22. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3448306)

The funny thing is that ZiPS still missed low on 2 of those 4 Bonds years!

23. frannyzoo

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:33 PM (#3448316)

I was expecting the Pujols (note the deft avoidance of the Pujols' Pujols's question) comps to be:

God, Buddha, Babe Ruth

instead of Frank Thomas, Eddie Murray and Boog. Kind of a letdown. I love the Holliday Larry Hisle reference, however.

24. bjhanke

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:37 PM (#3448322)

Jimenez the Great asks, "Anyone have any idea why Rasmus' second half sucked? I'll still take the over though."

He was hurt in the second half. That being said, the over is dangerous, because he's due for Sophomore Slump.

Holliday strikes me as a hard guy to comp. His homers are in an odd range, especially coupled with his batting averages, and his defense is weird - not bad, just weird. The famous fly ball error in the postseason was on one of the hardest plays to make - a line drive headed right towards the family jewels. There's no good way to get the glove vertical. Try what your wrist will, it's going to end up horizontaI, either right side up or wrong. It doesn't give you much coverage if the ball moves even a little. I still (oversharing alert) have one testicle twice the size of the other from having one of those hit an air pocket and slide under the glove. It took me 45 minutes to begin to crawl out of the fetal position, and I've never played or practiced a sport since without wearing a cup. The way, I found out, to catch those things is to move a step to the side and avoid keeping your body right in front of it. That way, you can hold the glove out to the side and get it vertical. But outfielders are taught to stay in front of the ball if possible, because if you miss, it goes to the wall.

The new Busch seems to be about neutral, although I don't know if we have enough years yet to be sure. Dan, what does your system say? - Brock

25. Gern Blanston

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:53 PM (#3448343)

Feckin' Pujols. Guy could miss his zips projection by 20% and still win an MVP.

26. Gern Blanston

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:55 PM (#3448344)

Hill's with the Cardinals? #### me.

27. Juan V is the mustard of your doom!

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3448349)

If it isn't too much to ask... what are Albert's chances for a 200 OPS+

28. Accent Shallow

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:15 PM (#3448356)

It's absolutely mind blowing that Pujols is projected to slug .635, when it seems other major sluggers are projected <.550. The man is incredible.

(I don't buy Manny as the second best hitter in MLB, but so it goes, right?)

29. morineko

Posted: January 27, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3448399)

Duncan may be able to fix Hill, but there's no guarantee the fix will stick even if he stays with the Cards for multiple years--see Todd Wellemeyer.

30. buccosmfg

Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:14 AM (#3448543)

As pathetic as it is bound to be, I was hoping to see a projection for Khalil Greene. I know he isn't with the team anymore, but he signed after the Ranger projections were posted. I he somewhere else that I missed, will there be a catch-all posted at the end or am S.O.L. on a projection for him?

31. azruavatar

Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:23 AM (#3448548)

Kyle McClellan will be 26 rather than 31 next year.

32. Ryan Jones

Posted: January 28, 2010 at 10:36 AM (#3448555)

I still (oversharing alert) have one testicle twice the size of the other from having one of those hit an air pocket and slide under the glove.

Looks like it's time to link this thread again.

33. danup

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:55 AM (#3449520)

Tyler Greene's odds really got worse after his relatively decent 2009?

34. bjhanke

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 11:33 AM (#3449662)

One thing I don't like about these projections is how low the walks are. I don't mean that I think the projections are off; I think the Cardinals have a weakness in their lineup. As a rule of thumb, you can take a batter's AB, drop the last digit (the easy way to divide by ten with no rounding), and get just about what the league will generate in walks for that many AB. For example, courtesy of BB-Ref, the NL had 33.93 AB per game in 2009, and 3.45 walks, which is rule of thumb close to a tenth of 33.93. In these projections, Albert Pujols projects to 531 AB and 102 walks. The league should do about 53 walks against 531 AB, so Albert projects to spend a lot of the summer strolling to first. It's not perfect, but it's a rule of thumb that has held up at the rule of thumb level since 1934. No, I have no idea why NL walk rates changed (they went up) in the exact year 1934 and then stayed up, but they did.

Anyway, eyeballing the list of players here, there are only three who project to take more than the league average number of walks: Pujols, Holliday, and Ruben Gotay, who is unlikely to play much. That's not a good thing for any lineup, and Tony has tended to build his lineups around power and walks. Somewhere along the line the last few years, the walks have gone missing. I don't know why a team with a bunch of brand new sabermetricians in house has allowed this to happen, but it has. Good thing I think Tony La Russa's teams have always won or lost with their veteran starting pitching.... - Brock

35. Moses thinks he knows what the hell he's doing

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 05:49 PM (#3450189)

Duncan may be able to fix Hill, but there's no guarantee the fix will stick even if he stays with the Cards for multiple years--see Todd Wellemeyer.

Rich Hill has a lot more talent and had a lot more success prior to the Cards. I think a lot of his problems are mental more than physical, so it's not like Duncan has to create something out of nothing.

36. RayDiPerna

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 05:54 PM (#3450195)

What, no McGwire projection?

Also, Dan, is it too much trouble to run a career projection for Pujols? If not I'd love to see it.

37. phredbird

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 06:25 PM (#3450234)

ray, there's one in there. its easy to miss, albert is the only position player they did.

38. phredbird

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3450237)

funny thing about the projection. if albert's career follows the projection, no way he doesn't get to hang around to get to 700 HR.

39. RayDiPerna

Posted: January 29, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3450250)

Heh.

40. xeifrank

Posted: February 02, 2010 at 08:48 PM (#3453039)

Without some more starting pitching depth and a solid 3rd starter behind the two studs, the Cardinals may struggle to repeat as winners in the NL Central. Opening the door for a team like the Cubs.
vr, Xei

41. Accent Shallow

Posted: February 02, 2010 at 09:46 PM (#3453063)

solid 3rd starter

I dunno, they have both Penny and Smoltz in these projections (note: Smoltz is still an FA). That's legendary depth, or so the writers forecasting the 2009 Red Sox would have me believe.

42. Ben V-L

Posted: February 04, 2010 at 09:46 AM (#3453885)

I share Brock's concern about the walks, but I disagree with his characterization of TLR as being aware of the utility of walks. TLR liked McGwire, and clearly McGwire was a big 3-true-outcomes guy. But consider the very solid Ray Lankford, who was very much a walks and power kind of player, who TLR pushed out in favor of much less productive, non-walking hitters like Shawon Dunston and Craig Paquette. TLR seems willing to give a lot of PA to unproductive hitters (check out McGee's '99 season) as long as their batting average stays over .250. When Lankford's dropped below .250, he was dropped.

The point of my comment being: this team is low on walking potential BECAUSE of TLR, not in spite of him.

43. cardsfanboy

Posted: February 24, 2010 at 01:27 AM (#3466745)

daniel descalso has a 10% chance of hitting .300 in the majors, 2% chance of hitting 45 doubles??? who the heck is he, never heard of him, and as a cardinal fan, for a guy to have that level percentage just points out to flaws of the system probabaly.

44. BobbyS

Posted: February 24, 2010 at 03:29 AM (#3466788)

I'd say Descalso's line looks pretty reasonable. He was a 3rd round pick just a few years ago and hit well over .300 in AA last season before moving to AAA. He's had decent walk rates and ok K rates...a 10% chance of it doesn't seem too far fetched at all. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he saw some time in the majors this year.

45. cardsfanboy

Posted: February 24, 2010 at 10:39 PM (#3467651)

I don't have a clue what his potential is or anything, my point is that he is an unheralded prospect that if I listed 20 Cardinal prospects a year ago, wouldn't have touched a radar, heck I think I could have gone 40 deep and not hit him...... don't get me wrong I'll root for anyone we get, it's funny that in the 1990's, the Cardinals were second to the Braves in the number of players who have made the majors even though they were constantly called one of the worse minor leagues in baseball. (producing prospects is not the same as producing major league talent)

46. Barnaby Jones

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 02:06 AM (#3467770)

Descalso made the Cardinals top 10 for both BA and BP this year. That you haven't heard of him has more to do with you than ZiPS.

47. cardsfanboy

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3468509)

post 46, wow, nice unwarranted attack. I'm not complaining about zips or anything, just saying that a year ago(noticed what I typed in 45) Descalso was an unheralded prospect that wasn't on many radars.

48. ess eff

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3468511)

Descalso played for the U.S. in the World Cup last September and then in the AFL (though not particularly well). He got put on a fast track after the blistering start at Double-A last year. One asset he has over other Cardinal infield prospects like Greene, Solano, Kozma and the departed guys like Hoffpauir and Barden is that he hits lefty. For the Bay Area folk, he's also a St. Francis Lancer and UC Davis Aggie.

49. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 09:26 PM (#3468513)

Right now, my tentative timetable is:

- 2/24-2/26 - Finishing a ZiPS sim run for TBA purpose.
- 2/27-2/28 - Enter in projections for returning 64 hitters and 94 pitchers from 2009 that haven't been projected.
- 2/28-3/1 - Post spreadsheet of projections and DMB disk of unassigned players with projected park factor, league factor, and schedule.
- 3/1-3/10 - Additional projections from requested players.
- 3/10-3/15 - Getting as many employed players with their proper organizations as possible (there are always poorly announced very minor signings at lower levels)
- 3/15 - Build 2
- 3/15-3/25 - Splits for players that will receive them, any corrections or changes, estimated 2010 depth charts.
- 3/25 - Final Build

50. spycake

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 09:31 PM (#3468516)

- 3/26 - ???
- 3/27 - PROFIT!

51. cardsfanboy

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 09:38 PM (#3468520)

Dan....for those of us using your sims in Diamond mind leagues, are you going to clear out projections of players who retired after you posted your projections? (not sure there are any there, but just want to check as my league is still doing free agents and it would suck if I lost a player that had a projection then retired)

also, in case it hasn't been said enough....great job.

52. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 09:44 PM (#3468523)

CFB, for the ones that didn't play in 2009, yes.

I usually give retirees a year because while the best players make retirement announcements, most players simply go unemployed and it gets difficult to see follow who wants a job and who doesn't.

53. cardsfanboy

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 09:52 PM (#3468529)

I'm talking about guys you have already projected in your earlier write ups, say Brian GIles announces his retirement tomorrow, do you remove him from your final projections or keep him on the list?

54. Accent Shallow

Posted: February 25, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3468530)

I'd just like to chime in here that the percentiles (such as referenced upthread, that someone like Daniel Descalso has a 10% chance to hit .300 in the majors) are one of the things that makes ZiPS really cool. I think everyone here has seen enough MLEs at some point to know that someone hitting well below AAA is generally projected to hit something like .250/.300/.400 in MLB, so it's nice to get a handle, however small, on potential breakouts.

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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

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