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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays
After staying 6 games out or so for most of the season, the Rays folded faster than Maxime Weygand once Carlos Pena's year ended early. Thanks to some pretty bad offensive holes that they weren't expecting in center, right, and DH, the Rays didn't quite have the offense they were hoping. A 102 OPS+ is perfectly respectable for a team, but with Longoria, Pena, Bartlett, and Crawford having solid seasons and an MVP-ish outburst from Zobrist, the team could've had the 2nd-best offense in the league if the supporting cast had pulled their weight.The good news is that there are no structural issues in the Rays organization that should keep the team from doing bettr than 84 wins in 2010. CF, RF, and DH should get dead cat bounces that will compensate for Zobrist not being a superstar, but the team is going to have to answer some questions behind the plate. Navarro can be a solid contributor, but unless he's going to tell his team ahead of time that he's about to hit like a pitcher for 4 months, he's of little use as a starter.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Carlos Pena* 1b 32 .243 .366 .524 137 481 79 117 26 2 35 93 86 155 2 1 136 Evan Longoria 3b 24 .272 .351 .525 152 570 88 155 40 1 34 104 66 139 8 0 131 Ben Zobrist# 2b 29 .261 .356 .443 121 418 63 109 20 4 16 52 61 81 12 4 113 Carl Crawford* lf 28 .293 .344 .444 138 556 84 163 27 9 13 67 40 90 45 11 110 Joe Dillon 1b 34 .275 .352 .408 82 240 38 66 12 1 6 30 25 35 3 1 104 Jason Bartlett ss 30 .286 .345 .405 132 482 66 138 26 5 7 44 39 78 20 6 101 B.J. Upton cf 25 .260 .347 .410 144 547 83 142 33 2 15 65 72 150 35 14 103 Pat Burrell dh 33 .230 .337 .415 132 448 52 103 21 1 20 68 73 123 1 0 101 Willy Aybar# 1b 27 .257 .332 .417 115 369 42 95 21 1 12 44 38 56 1 2 100 Chris Richard* 1b 36 .248 .326 .414 100 355 45 88 18 1 13 48 36 87 3 1 97 Akinori Iwamura* 2b 30 .268 .347 .373 136 557 84 149 25 8 6 39 67 122 9 6 93 Gabe Gross* rf 30 .237 .330 .397 124 295 37 70 16 2 9 36 41 73 4 2 95 Desmond Jennings cf 23 .264 .330 .371 99 394 55 104 18 3 6 30 35 63 28 7 88 Gabe Kapler rf 34 .252 .320 .416 93 202 26 51 13 1 6 28 20 35 4 2 96 Gregg Zaun# c 39 .237 .335 .367 94 278 29 66 15 0 7 26 40 48 1 1 89 Matthew Joyce* rf 25 .235 .313 .407 129 455 54 107 27 3 15 50 50 124 7 5 91 John Jaso* c 26 .265 .336 .351 112 396 45 105 17 1 5 40 40 55 1 1 86 Sean Rodriguez 2b 25 .229 .308 .400 128 462 63 106 22 3 17 55 43 135 7 3 89 Jon Weber* lf 32 .253 .315 .381 100 383 42 97 23 1 8 39 33 79 5 5 86 Justin Ruggiano cf 28 .238 .301 .369 124 453 56 108 22 2 11 51 37 136 17 5 79 Dioner Navarro# c 26 .248 .302 .367 116 395 41 98 21 1 8 41 28 56 3 2 79 Chris Nowak 3b 27 .247 .306 .342 122 474 50 117 23 2 6 51 36 98 7 4 74 Michel Hernandez c 31 .258 .307 .335 64 209 23 54 8 1 2 20 14 26 1 1 73 Shawn Riggans c 29 .239 .290 .362 47 163 16 39 8 0 4 19 9 33 1 1 74 Reid Brignac* ss 24 .244 .286 .359 122 479 49 117 27 2 8 39 27 97 6 5 72 Henry Mateo# 2b 33 .243 .304 .326 73 267 29 65 12 2 2 14 22 52 11 5 70 Fernando Perez# cf 27 .242 .309 .317 91 347 52 84 11 3 3 18 33 100 20 9 69 Elliot Johnson# 2b 26 .230 .281 .351 99 370 39 85 15 3 8 32 24 98 10 5 69 Rashad Eldridge# lf 28 .241 .301 .309 115 440 48 106 17 2 3 35 35 95 12 8 65 Jose Lobaton# c 25 .224 .278 .328 84 290 26 65 13 1 5 24 22 87 0 0 62 Ray Olmedo# 3b 29 .247 .285 .314 118 401 35 99 14 2 3 31 20 65 8 7 61 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Pena* Av/98 Longoria Ex/88 Zobrist# Vg/82 Av/82 Av/146 Vg/73 Av/73 Vg/73 Crawford* Ex/92 Dillon Av/121 Pr/121 Fr/92 Av/116 Bartlett Av/118 Upton Pr/189 Vg/114 Burrell Pr/138 Aybar# Av/74 Av/121 Av/101 Richard* Fr/144 Fr/84 Iwamura* Av/76 Av/73 Gross* Av/99 Fr/99 Av/99 Jennings Vg/102 Kapler Av/95 Fr/95 Vg/95 Zaun# Fr Joyce* Av/117 Pr/130 Av/117 Jaso* Fr Rodriguez Vg/103 Av/112 Av/99 Fr/99 Av/99 Weber* Av/131 Pr/145 Fr/145 Ruggiano Vg/98 Fr/44 Av/136 Navarro# Av Nowak Av/131 Fr/105 Av/122 Av/122 Hernandez Fr Riggans Fr Brignac* Av/121 Av/117 Mateo# Fr/136 Fr/136 Fr/121 Fr/121 Fr/121 Perez# Vg/121 Vg/121 Vg/121 Johnson# Av/164 Av/164 Fr/180 Av/125 Fr/125 Av/125 Eldridge# Vg/90 Av/118 Vg/69 Lobaton# Fr Olmedo# Fr/121 Fr/106 Fr/123 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 LongoriaEvan 3B 66% 28% 5% 1% 0% RolenScott CliftHarlond WrightDavid PenaCarlos 1B 41% 34% 15% 7% 2% NicholsonBill HeathJeff TenaceGene CrawfordCarl LF 26% 41% 21% 11% 2% RichardsGene FinleySteve WebsterMitch ZobristBen 2B 58% 23% 12% 6% 1% McAuliffeDick PhillipsTony FreyLonny BartlettJason SS 38% 33% 22% 6% 1% LugoJulio LarkinBarry FernandezTony DillonJoe 1B 1% 11% 23% 43% 22% CavarrettaPhil MormanRuss JohnsonRoy UptonB.J. CF 22% 23% 33% 17% 5% AllisonBob BradleyMilton BurksEllis AybarWilly 1B 2% 4% 10% 40% 44% SeguiDavid LaCockPete LarkinGene BurrellPat DH 3% 10% 16% 40% 32% FielderCecil SalmonTim TracyAndy RichardChris 1B 3% 6% 14% 36% 41% McQuinnGeorge CroweGeorge HodgesGil JenningsDesmond CF 5% 15% 37% 33% 10% DernierBob PiersallJim GrissomMarquis KaplerGabe RF 3% 9% 13% 26% 49% KennedyBob NorenIrv SoltersMoose IwamuraAkinori 2B 10% 14% 22% 30% 25% DeShieldsDelino MorandiniMickey NewhanDavid GrossGabe RF 1% 5% 11% 26% 57% MooreGene CarpenterBubba DellucciDavid JoyceMatthew RF 0% 2% 5% 17% 77% AllredBeau SkubeBob LangerhansRyan RodriguezSean 2B 3% 9% 19% 34% 34% RaburnRyan MackRay GinterKeith ZaunGregg C 5% 18% 28% 33% 16% SchangWally FerrellRick MancusoGus JasoJohn C 3% 11% 27% 42% 17% ThompsonTommy ChristmasSteve DalrympleClay WeberJon LF 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% MooreGene ZarillaAl SwannPedro RuggianoJustin CF 3% 4% 10% 29% 55% PorterBo LoweryTerrell PorterColin NavarroDioner C 2% 4% 12% 39% 45% RodgersBuck PenaBrayan BarrettMichael NowakChris 3B 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% BertoiaReno SpringerSteve JurgesBilly HernandezMichel C 0% 1% 4% 25% 70% AstrothJoeHargreavesCharli SpohrerAl RiggansShawn C 0% 1% 7% 36% 56% MolinaIzzy MakarewiczScott HammockRobby BrignacReid SS 0% 1% 5% 23% 70% QuintanillaOmar BerraDale RamirezRafael MateoHenry 2B 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% CandaeleCasey AliceaLuis BarrettTom PerezFernando CF 0% 1% 3% 12% 85% EspyCecil ScottTony TorresAndres JohnsonElliot 2B 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% CrespoCesar DavisKevin MercedesVictor EldridgeRashad LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% FoxEric GilbertMark NunezAbraham LobatonJose C 0% 0% 0% 4% 96% HemphillBret SwisherSteve McGriffTerry OlmedoRay 3B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% HolkeWalter WilliamsGlenn DallimoreBrian Name .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB LongoriaEvan 13% 16% 70% 27% 18% 0% 71% 0% PenaCarlos 5% 35% 56% 38% 0% 0% 71% 0% CrawfordCarl 41% 10% 13% 4% 1% 82% 1% 98% ZobristBen 9% 25% 13% 7% 0% 3% 2% 0% BartlettJason 31% 12% 2% 1% 1% 31% 0% 7% DillonJoe 22% 20% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% UptonB.J. 5% 18% 3% 4% 6% 0% 1% 77% AybarWilly 6% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% BurrellPat 1% 9% 3% 2% 0% 0% 10% 0% RichardChris 4% 6% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% JenningsDesmond 9% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 39% KaplerGabe 9% 9% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% IwamuraAkinori 14% 11% 0% 1% 0% 20% 0% 0% GrossGabe 1% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% JoyceMatthew 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RodriguezSean 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ZaunGregg 3% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% JasoJohn 9% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WeberJon 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RuggianoJustin 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% NavarroDioner 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NowakChris 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HernandezMichel 11% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RiggansShawn 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BrignacReid 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MateoHenry 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PerezFernando 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% JohnsonElliot 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EldridgeRashad 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% LobatonJose 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% OlmedoRay 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Jamie Shields 28 3.94 13 10 34 34 226.1 227 99 28 47 173 113 Matt Garza 26 3.95 12 10 34 34 202.2 197 89 23 76 172 112 Wade Davis 24 4.58 10 11 34 34 182.2 181 93 20 61 137 97 David Price* 24 4.63 9 10 29 27 145.2 143 75 20 66 113 95 Jeff Niemann 27 4.65 9 10 30 29 162.2 169 84 21 62 110 95 Jeremy Hellickson 23 4.67 6 7 24 24 123.1 127 64 20 34 98 95 Carlos Hernandez* 30 4.88 3 4 14 13 66.1 74 36 7 29 37 91 Jason Cromer* 29 5.21 5 8 29 17 105.1 128 61 11 42 49 85 Mitch Talbot 26 5.29 6 10 22 21 115.2 134 68 13 44 65 84 Andrew Sonnanstine 27 5.34 10 15 33 32 187.0 211 111 27 45 115 83 Heath Rollins 25 5.56 7 13 30 25 144.0 167 89 23 52 74 80 Jacob McGee* 23 5.71 3 5 16 16 63.0 65 40 9 35 45 77 James Houser* 25 6.35 2 6 19 18 83.2 92 59 15 55 43 70 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ J.P. Howell* 27 3.28 7 4 72 0 79.2 62 29 8 37 89 136 Russ Springer 41 3.86 3 2 70 0 53.2 52 23 6 19 49 117 Chad Bradford 35 3.89 3 2 51 0 41.2 48 18 3 11 17 114 Grant Balfour 32 3.91 4 4 66 0 69.0 56 30 7 35 76 112 Lance Cormier 29 4.09 3 3 54 0 83.2 86 38 7 32 47 109 Winston Abreu 33 4.13 3 3 52 0 65.1 59 30 8 28 67 107 Dan Wheeler 32 4.18 5 5 67 0 60.1 54 28 10 17 50 106 Joe Nelson 35 4.24 3 3 62 0 63.2 57 30 9 33 57 104 Brian Shouse* 41 4.26 2 1 57 0 38.0 41 18 4 12 22 103 Jason Isringhausen 37 4.41 1 2 35 0 34.2 34 17 3 18 24 100 Dale Thayer 29 4.54 3 4 58 0 69.1 75 35 7 27 42 97 Randy Choate* 34 4.60 2 2 56 1 47.0 48 24 5 20 30 96 Troy Percival 40 4.61 1 1 30 0 27.1 25 14 4 13 22 96 Joe Bateman 30 4.75 3 3 43 1 60.2 61 32 6 34 42 93 Jeff Bennett 30 4.95 4 5 58 7 83.2 95 46 9 49 48 90 Jason Childers 35 5.01 4 5 49 0 59.1 64 33 8 24 36 89 Eduardo Morlan 24 5.58 4 6 43 0 59.2 66 37 9 31 39 79 Julio DePaula 27 5.99 3 6 56 3 82.2 95 55 13 50 47 74 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 HowellJ.P. RP 71% 27% 2% MyersRandy RockerJohn WagnerBilly SpringerRuss RP 45% 40% 15% AndersenLarry PaigeSatchel ReedRon BradfordChad RP 42% 38% 20% QuantrillPaul LockerBob KlineRon ShieldsJames SP 60% 38% 2% EckersleyDennis SheetsBen HarenDanny BalfourGrant RP 33% 50% 18% DurenRyne KershnerJason ClearMark GarzaMatt SP 54% 44% 2% GreeneTommy McDowellJack WelchBob CormierLance RP 28% 54% 18% BuddieMike DeJeanMike WilliamsTodd AbreuWinston RP 23% 53% 24% FarnsworthKyle JacksonMike LockwoodSkip WheelerDan RP 21% 54% 25% ReardonJeff SpradlinJerry FoulkeKeith NelsonJoe RP 19% 48% 33% BerenguerJuan StoddardTim DeLuciaRich ShouseBrian RP 33% 31% 35% GroomBuddy HaddixHarvey HoneycuttRick IsringhausenJason RP 23% 34% 44% CarraraGiovanni SeguiDiego HernandezRoberto PercivalTroy RP 26% 38% 37% HarrisGreg BairDoug McMahonDon ThayerDale RP 10% 46% 44% BuddieMike WilliamsTodd WilliamsonMark DavisWade SP 18% 63% 18% FernandezAlex CastilloFrank JonesBobby ChoateRandy RP 17% 41% 42% SchoeneweisScott McClureBob AgostoJuan NiemannJeff SP 15% 62% 23% HudsonCharles HernandezManny ThomsonJohn PriceDavid SP 17% 59% 24% HitchcockSterling CapuanoChris SaundersTony HellicksonJeremy SP 20% 55% 25% BoydOil Can HaasMoose ReyesAnthony BatemanJoe RP 6% 44% 50% WilkinsMarc DoughertyJim CamachoErnie HernandezCarlos SP 15% 38% 48% JacksonDanny HamptonMike AndersonJimmy BennettJeff RP 4% 36% 60% BumsteadMike FioreTony ZuberBill ChildersJason RP 7% 28% 65% BullingerKirk BarlowRicky HergesMatt CromerJason SP 7% 34% 59% GuettermanLee BlasingameWade AndersonJimmy TalbotMitch SP 3% 37% 60% LaCossMike HillShawn ScottMike SonnanstineAndy SP 3% 36% 61% SirotkaMike MarothMike LeekRandy RollinsHeath SP 1% 22% 77% McKnightTony SmartJ.D. FreedDan MorlanEduardo RP 1% 18% 81% CarmonaRafael BottalicoRicky BrownMark McGeeJacob SP 4% 22% 75% RogersKevin ConroyTim WallaceChris DePaulaJulio RP 0% 4% 96% GaillardEddie McLearyMarty BondDaven WlodarczykMichael RP 0% 3% 97% BlasingameWade FloresRandy FreedMark HouserJames SP 0% 5% 95% WhitakerSteve WunschKelly NormandGuy Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 HowellJ.P. 65% 96% 95% 0% 69% SpringerRuss 37% 80% 53% 8% 57% BradfordChad 34% 73% 0% 34% 86% ShieldsJames 17% 86% 7% 68% 35% BalfourGrant 26% 78% 95% 0% 77% GarzaMatt 15% 84% 31% 0% 55% CormierLance 19% 73% 1% 2% 76% AbreuWinston 18% 71% 85% 1% 42% WheelerDan 16% 63% 25% 20% 26% NelsonJoe 15% 61% 53% 0% 36% ShouseBrian 26% 57% 2% 32% 56% IsringhausenJason 23% 56% 10% 2% 75% PercivalTroy 26% 54% 21% 5% 46% ThayerDale 7% 49% 0% 1% 71% DavisWade 3% 45% 6% 2% 53% ChoateRandy 13% 50% 2% 1% 64% NiemannJeff 2% 40% 1% 0% 36% PriceDavid 2% 41% 8% 0% 26% HellicksonJeremy 3% 42% 16% 16% 13% BatemanJoe 6% 43% 3% 0% 76% HernandezCarlos 4% 29% 0% 1% 64% BennettJeff 3% 30% 1% 0% 64% ChildersJason 6% 30% 2% 3% 46% CromerJason 2% 18% 0% 2% 71% TalbotMitch 0% 14% 0% 1% 61% SonnanstineAndy 0% 10% 0% 39% 21% RollinsHeath 0% 4% 0% 1% 14% MorlanEduardo 1% 11% 1% 0% 28% McGeeJacob 0% 10% 6% 0% 30% DePaulaJulio 0% 2% 0% 0% 18% WlodarczykMichael 0% 3% 0% 0% 51% HouserJames 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ NavarroDioner .248 .305 .363 1154 3909 411 968 196 9 79 405 299 565 27 18 77 BartlettJason .277 .339 .385 1683 6045 817 1677 297 56 81 529 501 1008 223 74 93 IwamuraAkinori .270 .343 .376 851 3328 471 899 166 44 33 235 366 704 68 35 92 LongoriaEvan .263 .349 .501 2535 9427 1568 2483 628 15 526 1806 1182 2379 112 34 119 PenaCarlos .237 .351 .491 1845 6372 991 1508 312 31 415 1149 1052 2049 30 24 122 ZobristBen .250 .344 .424 1383 4723 677 1179 212 42 176 573 669 936 107 48 104 CrawfordCarl .290 .335 .432 2187 8847 1313 2562 388 153 188 1015 568 1402 669 170 103 UptonB.J. .250 .339 .388 1864 7036 1032 1760 397 27 174 775 938 1925 407 180 95 BurrellPat .247 .355 .457 1870 6456 869 1593 337 19 328 1111 1087 1812 11 1 111 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ GarzaMatt 164 158 0 4.21 498 495 2960 2838 380 1165 2513 105 ShieldsJames 160 146 0 4.23 452 454 2967 3053 410 680 2300 105 PercivalTroy 36 44 374 3.26 746 1 746 515 91 324 812 143 IsringhausenJas 49 54 320 3.70 711 52 1001 909 81 440 817 115 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 28, 2009 at 06:03 PM | 27 comment(s)
Related News: Tampa Bay, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Tampa Bay, Projections, ZIPS
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Also, another question for Dan. When you are extrapolating career statistics, are you just taking the 50% line for every season up until the point that they'd no longer be able to play major league baseball, or is it done differently?
Also, another question for Dan. When you are extrapolating career statistics, are you just taking the 50% line for every season up until the point that they'd no longer be able to play major league baseball, or is it done differently?
Essentially, it re-projects every season by adding the previous year's mean projection to the equation. In addition to the injury risk, I did some more research to make a little model of playing-time loss due to play, so as players gets below-average or worse, their playing time erodes.
That's pretty much because 500 homer level has only recently been "available" to non-ridiculous hitters. It's not impossible for one of the 400 guys to have hit 500 home runs in a better environment.
I also checked out the other 500 men, and only Ernie Banks (122) approaches E-Lo's projected OPS+. That surprised me a little, on both ends; given his still youthful age and current hitting level, I'd take the over on that (as in, a higher average, some more walks, a few more homers).
To me he's the Donovan McNabb of baseball. He could be MVP next year, or he could ride the bench, and neither would be truly surprising.
If "team"="Tampa Bay Rays" and "player"="Zobrist" then "OPS=798".
I think that's how Dan's subjective computer analysis works, right?
Oh, wait, does playing for the Royals still count as time in the majors?
Seriously, for the 3 preceding years, I get a combined MLB/zMLE of 253/329/378. He's 29 next season, not some 23-year-old prospect. Chances are, this was his career season, but the above 113 OPS+ for an above-average defensive 2B is an excellent player.
In Greinke's case, the computer obviously couldn't know the extenuating circumstances for some of the poor older performances. And even then, Greinke being risky coming into the season doesn't necessarily become wrong simply because his season did in fact work out. This is a player, after all, that took 4 years to advance past where he was as a rookie and it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.
Because there's clearly no other rational explanation.
Though I also wouldn't be surprised to find that jfish26101 does live in a different universe than most of us most of the time ... though clearly they've got way cooler names in that universe.
it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.
Suicide is painless.
Kind of crazy that Bartlett has one great season in his late 20s, and suddenly there's Barry Larkin and Tony Fernandez on his comp list. Is that ZIPS saying he's no fluke?
ZiPS comps are "recent-season" comps not career comps. So Fernandez makes some sense as from ages 27-29 he was putting up a 100ish OPS+.
But Dan might want to check that the Frinkenator is working right on the Larkin comp because he put up OPS+ of 143, 132, 124 for ages 27-29.
Or, FAR more likely, it's his pro-Bartlett conspiracy ... expect him to come along any minute now with some reasonable-sounding explanation for why Bartlett's 2009 wasn't a fluke.
like Kingman?
Normally I'd have a 4000-word rant about the pharmaceutical industry in response, but it's 4AM, so I'll just settle for "you're right, Dan."
As an experiment, for playing time purposes, ZiPS assumes that hitters with a huge year-to-year drop in playing time and are above replacement level but with little or no drop in ability are injured and for playing time purposes only, takes those numbers into less account. The 707 PA is a larger-than-usual component for his expected playing time.
Injured hitter playing time recovers, on a year-to-year basis, far, far better than injured pitcher playing time.
As I noted, it's an experiment this year. It's not really a big deal, I'm primarily worried about projecting rates.
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