Based on an entirely cursory check of two players, it looks like Longoria is projected to have the lowest career OPS+ of any 500-HR hitter. Which is interesting, considering he's also projected for over 600 doubles and nearly 1200 walks.

How rare is it for a player so young to project to 500 home runs? It surprised me to see ZiPS projects it.

Also, another question for Dan. When you are extrapolating career statistics, are you just taking the 50% line for every season up until the point that they'd no longer be able to play major league baseball, or is it done differently?

Based on an entirely cursory check of two players, it looks like Longoria is projected to have the lowest career OPS+ of any 500-HR hitter.

That's pretty much because 500 homer level has only recently been "available" to non-ridiculous hitters. It's not impossible for one of the 400 guys to have hit 500 home runs in a better environment.

Was I in an alternate universe this year where Zobrist was actually good at the plate? A .950 OPS in the AL and probably the toughest division in baseball and yet his projection doesn't even crack .800? This is right up there with the horrible projection you gave Greinke last year...I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(

Has any young phenom's star fallen as far and as fast as B. J. Upton? .388 projected career slugging?

I also checked out the other 500 men, and only Ernie Banks (122) approaches E-Lo's projected OPS+. That surprised me a little, on both ends; given his still youthful age and current hitting level, I'd take the over on that (as in, a higher average, some more walks, a few more homers).

Has any young phenom's star fallen as far and as fast as B. J. Upton? .388 projected career slugging?

To me he's the Donovan McNabb of baseball. He could be MVP next year, or he could ride the bench, and neither would be truly surprising.

I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(

If "team"="Tampa Bay Rays" and "player"="Zobrist" then "OPS=798".

I think that's how Dan's subjective computer analysis works, right?

I love the Satchel Paige comp for Russ Springer.

So ZiPS is projecting another 2.5 seasons for Burrell. If that projection is correct, ZiPS is probably being kind.

Oh, wait, does playing for the Royals still count as time in the majors?

Kind of crazy that Bartlett has one great season in his late 20s, and suddenly there's Barry Larkin and Tony Fernandez on his comp list. Is that ZIPS saying he's no fluke?

Dan, Dan, Dan ... when will you bring your vile anti-Zobrist campaign to an end?

Because there's clearly no other rational explanation.

Though I also wouldn't be surprised to find that jfish26101 does live in a different universe than most of us most of the time ... though clearly they've got way cooler names in that universe.

it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.

Suicide is painless.

Kind of crazy that Bartlett has one great season in his late 20s, and suddenly there's Barry Larkin and Tony Fernandez on his comp list. Is that ZIPS saying he's no fluke?

ZiPS comps are "recent-season" comps not career comps. So Fernandez makes some sense as from ages 27-29 he was putting up a 100ish OPS+.

But Dan might want to check that the Frinkenator is working right on the Larkin comp because he put up OPS+ of 143, 132, 124 for ages 27-29.

Or, FAR more likely, it's his pro-Bartlett conspiracy ... expect him to come along any minute now with some reasonable-sounding explanation for why Bartlett's 2009 wasn't a fluke.

It's not impossible for one of the 400 guys to have hit 500 home runs in a better environment.

like Kingman?

Really looking forward to San Diego and San Francisco

it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.

Normally I'd have a 4000-word rant about the pharmaceutical industry in response, but it's 4AM, so I'll just settle for "you're right, Dan."

Hey, Dan: Why is Iwamura projected for more PT than Bartlett? A guy on another blog asked me, and I couldn't figure out, given that Bartlett has more PT in two of the last three years, including a big edge in 2009.

I would like to know what the elections mean for the Rays.

Hey, Dan: Why is Iwamura projected for more PT than Bartlett? A guy on another blog asked me, and I couldn't figure out, given that Bartlett has more PT in two of the last three years, including a big edge in 2009.

As an experiment, for playing time purposes, ZiPS assumes that hitters with a huge year-to-year drop in playing time and are above replacement level but with little or no drop in ability are injured and for playing time purposes only, takes those numbers into less account. The 707 PA is a larger-than-usual component for his expected playing time.

Injured hitter playing time recovers, on a year-to-year basis, far, far better than injured pitcher playing time.

As I noted, it's an experiment this year. It's not really a big deal, I'm primarily worried about projecting rates.

Thanks! That makes sense - I'll let him know.

Where does Jesse Chavez fit in to all this?

Is it unusual that Iwamura's projection is exactly the same as last year's right down to the AB's? I would think between adding in another year's stats and aging a year the odds of that would be pretty low?

Uh-oh, that's not good!

I think that Zobrist will have a better year than what is projected. I do not think that he will fade away and hit .261

If you get a chance, Dan, could you run Aneury Rodriguez? I think he's a pretty good bet to go in the Rule 5 this year, and I'm curious to see how he stacks up.

Im surprised there wasnt a projection for Matthew Moore. Didnt expect a good one or even useable, but thought there would be one. Maybe Alex Cobb too.

I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(

I agree. Clearly Dan took some bribes from Zobrist this off-season.

Jose Bautista's secret satchel of steriods must have been stolen from Zobrist last September.

I had similar arguments about Kung Fu Panda. On another blog, someone seriously argued that since ZiPS missed Sandoval's 2009 OPS by 180 points, that it should be assumed that Sandoval's 2010 would also be missed by 180 points and as ZiPS projected an .884 OPS for 2010, that it was safe to assume that Sandoval was the easy frontrunner for the MVP.

I certainly am biased

Yep!

[29] I'm thinking Bautista ganked some goodies from Pena's stash as well! And then stepped on his foot & broke his fingers! That bastard!

And he replaced Lind, Hill and Snider's steriods with sugar pills so he wouldn't have to share the glory.

I've been greatly amused by Carlos Pena's long, slow offensive trip down Rob Deer Blvd.