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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, November 05, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers
The Rangers had a pretty good season in 2009, going 87-75 and scaring the Angels for awhile, but the team still has a number of holes to fill, a lot of starting pitcher questions to sort out, and some financial uncertainty going forward.2009 was not kind to the Rangers vaunted catching depth, with Salty being disappointing, Teagarden even worse, Ramirez, being injured and even worse than the former. Pudge is just about done and even former Ranger catchers Gerald Laird and Rod Barajas saw their prospects for the future decline considerably.
At this point, the Rangers may have to mostly with the team that they have and while there are a lot of things good about the team, especially Andrus and Feliz, I don't think they're good enough to seriously compete for the division without some luck.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Nelson Cruz rf 29 .270 .342 .512 133 482 73 130 23 2 30 81 50 120 15 5 116 Ian Kinsler 2b 28 .274 .346 .486 127 508 91 139 30 3 24 71 53 71 25 3 111 Josh Hamilton* cf 29 .283 .344 .488 106 406 59 115 23 3 18 70 37 86 7 2 111 Michael Young 3b 33 .301 .352 .445 135 559 75 168 35 2 14 70 45 92 8 2 104 Marlon Byrd cf 32 .283 .339 .450 133 487 64 138 31 4 14 71 35 88 7 4 101 David Murphy* lf 28 .276 .337 .442 127 453 60 125 27 3 14 60 43 86 7 3 99 Hank Blalock* 1b 29 .258 .309 .471 99 376 50 97 20 3 18 53 27 75 2 0 97 Chris Davis* 1b 24 .251 .300 .475 136 495 69 124 26 2 27 79 34 158 2 1 95 Nate Gold 1b 30 .256 .319 .436 85 328 38 84 18 1 13 53 29 77 0 1 92 Esteban German 3b 32 .269 .352 .373 112 357 52 96 17 4 4 42 43 63 16 6 87 Elvis Andrus ss 21 .270 .333 .387 146 486 75 131 19 7 8 39 43 74 31 4 85 Justin Smoak# 1b 23 .250 .340 .385 78 304 34 76 15 1 8 35 40 66 0 0 87 Andruw Jones dh 33 .223 .314 .421 102 354 51 79 17 1 17 55 45 88 4 1 87 Royce Huffman 1b 33 .262 .336 .367 112 412 44 108 23 1 6 44 41 79 4 2 81 Justin Leone 3b 33 .238 .317 .390 92 328 46 78 18 1 10 46 38 92 9 2 81 Julio Borbon* cf 24 .283 .330 .366 137 573 86 162 22 4 6 48 35 71 41 12 80 Jarrod Saltalamacchia# c 25 .248 .313 .396 95 323 41 80 16 1 10 40 30 95 0 2 81 Kevin Thompson rf 30 .249 .322 .378 57 185 29 46 10 1 4 19 18 38 11 3 80 Ryan Freel rf 34 .255 .329 .345 66 200 31 51 10 1 2 14 18 38 11 4 74 Taylor Teagarden c 26 .225 .300 .386 80 285 35 64 14 1 10 33 28 99 1 1 75 Ivan Rodriguez c 38 .262 .293 .389 114 416 53 109 22 2 9 48 18 86 4 2 74 Maximiliano Ramirez c 25 .237 .312 .348 96 359 35 85 16 0 8 43 36 104 1 1 70 Craig Gentry cf 26 .253 .308 .342 113 459 64 116 20 3 5 34 27 85 26 7 68 Brandon Boggs# lf 27 .220 .310 .346 11 382 41 84 18 3 8 40 48 118 7 3 69 Joaquin Arias ss 25 .266 .297 .354 101 421 52 112 16 3 5 39 17 48 16 3 67 Casey Benjamin* lf 29 .236 .312 .337 105 368 45 87 15 2 6 33 40 81 3 1 68 Omar Vizquel# ss 43 .255 .312 .330 86 282 34 72 11 2 2 29 23 31 7 3 66 Manuel Pina c 23 .249 .290 .348 90 342 33 85 17 1 5 35 16 62 1 0 64 Adam Fox 2b 28 .239 .285 .368 106 380 39 91 15 2 10 39 21 91 5 3 67 Travis Metcalf 3b 27 .234 .285 .357 120 423 50 99 21 2 9 50 29 101 3 2 64 Kevin Richardson c 29 .212 .268 .355 78 273 28 58 10 1 9 28 17 6 0 1 59 Greg Golson cf 24 .229 .266 .312 122 477 47 109 17 4 5 39 26 139 16 4 49 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Cruz Av/106 Av/106 Kinsler Av/118 Hamilton* Vg/86 Av/144 Vg/86 Young Fr/86 Fr/92 Byrd Av/62 Fr/123 Av/108 Murphy* Av/98 Fr/167 Av/65 Blalock* Av/115 Pr/104 Davis* Fr/74 Pr/109 Gold Av/128 German Fr/130 Fr/130 Fr/130 Fr/171 Andrus Vg/135 Smoak# Vg/104 Jones Av/75 Pr/75 Av/75 Huffman Av/83 Pr/159 Pr/159 Av/118 Av/118 Leone Av/120 Fr/120 Av/99 Pr/120 Vg/87 Pr/120 Vg/120 Borbon* Vg/146 Vg/146 Vg/146 Saltalamacchia# Fr Fr/160 Thompson Av/120 Fr/150 Av/120 Freel Fr/121 Fr/121 Av/98 Pr/98 Av/98 Teagarden Av Rodriguez Av Ramirez Fr Fr/107 Gentry Vg/127 Boggs# Vg/125 Av/85 Vg/125 Arias Vg/155 Vg/118 Benjamin* Fr/109 Fr/109 Av/109 Vizquel# Vg/67 Ex/67 Pina Av Fox Av/98 Fr/98 Av/98 Av/98 Metcalf Fr/100 Richardson Fr Fr/104 Golson Av/90 Av/147 Av/90 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 KinslerIan 2B 66% 16% 10% 5% 3% HaleOdell EasleyDamion WerberBilly CruzNelson RF 21% 32% 22% 17% 8% WestlakeWally BrunanskyTom MondesiRaul HamiltonJosh CF 36% 25% 25% 12% 2% HallJimmie AltmanGeorge WyrostekJohnny YoungMichael 3B 14% 24% 26% 22% 14% MoraMelvin WhitneyPinky CirilloJeff ByrdMarlon CF 14% 20% 31% 23% 12% DevereauxMike BrandtJackie BlairPaul MurphyDavid LF 4% 10% 14% 29% 43% JohnsonRoy NorthrupJim McMillonBilly BlalockHank 1B 2% 5% 10% 37% 46% MatuszekLen TodtPhil KryhoskiDick AndrusElvis SS 17% 34% 35% 12% 1% InfanteOmar RollinsJimmy CabreraOrlando DavisChris 1B 0% 3% 9% 36% 51% HowardRyan LagaMike MaasKevin GoldNate 1B 0% 3% 5% 24% 67% SchallGene FreireAlejandro VitielloJoe GermanEsteban 3B 1% 5% 14% 31% 48% GarnerPhil ShanksHowie RandleLen BorbonJulio CF 2% 5% 21% 41% 32% FinleySteve JohnsonLance ChavezEndy SmoakJustin 1B 0% 0% 2% 20% 78% BarbaraDon SheltonChris AbadAndy ThompsonKevin RF 0% 2% 3% 11% 84% BrownEmil BrowerBob VenableMax JonesAndruw DH 2% 3% 5% 18% 72% HickmanJim OliverGene DavisGlenn LeoneJustin 3B 1% 3% 8% 23% 65% RyanConnie HansenJed StephensVern HuffmanRoyce 1B 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% BurnsGeorge TolmanTim HayesCharlie SaltalamacchiaJar C 0% 4% 17% 44% 35% AshbyAlan DavisBen WilkinsRick FreelRyan RF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% OutlawJimmy FoxPete KirbyWayne RodriguezIvan C 1% 4% 12% 34% 49% SantiagoBenito ToddAl BordersPat AriasJoaquin SS 1% 2% 7% 31% 59% RyanBrendan ConcepcionOnix ValdezWilson GentryCraig CF 1% 1% 3% 13% 82% BusbyJim JonesCleon EllisonJason TeagardenTaylor C 1% 1% 5% 28% 65% FimpleJack GlassTim GonzalezJimmy RamirezMax C 0% 1% 5% 26% 68% WaszgisB.J. AcevesJon McDonaldKeith VizquelOmar SS 0% 0% 2% 16% 82% SmithOzzie ConcepcionDave BowaLarry BenjaminCasey LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% CarpenterBubba ParsonsCasey KingeryMike BoggsBrandon LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% CarrChuck CedenoRoger ReynoldsR.J. FoxAdam 2B 1% 1% 1% 5% 92% BloodworthJimmy JavierJulian HartBo PinaManuel C 0% 0% 1% 13% 86% StewartChris LudererBrian MulliganSean MetcalfTravis 3B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% KennedyJohn BardenBrian HulettTim RichardsonKevin C 0% 0% 1% 3% 96%MitterwaldGeorge ArdoinDanny SardinhaDane GolsonGreg RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%GuerreroCristian SenreisoJuan McDonaldT.J. Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB KinslerIan 16% 12% 47% 7% 3% 1% 22% 29% CruzNelson 15% 10% 55% 10% 1% 0% 52% 1% HamiltonJosh 30% 17% 33% 10% 1% 0% 4% 0% YoungMichael 45% 25% 12% 4% 13% 0% 1% 0% ByrdMarlon 26% 9% 15% 1% 4% 3% 2% 0% MurphyDavid 20% 7% 12% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% BlalockHank 4% 1% 17% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% AndrusElvis 9% 5% 0% 0% 0% 67% 0% 63% DavisChris 2% 0% 23% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% GoldNate 6% 3% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GermanEsteban 16% 20% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 1% BorbonJulio 30% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 94% SmoakJustin 3% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ThompsonKevin 7% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% JonesAndruw 2% 3% 5% 1% 0% 0% 5% 0% LeoneJustin 1% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% HuffmanRoyce 10% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% SaltalamacchiaJar 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FreelRyan 11% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RodriguezIvan 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AriasJoaquin 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% GentryCraig 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% TeagardenTaylor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RamirezMax 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% VizquelOmar 11% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BenjaminCasey 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BoggsBrandon 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% FoxAdam 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PinaManuel 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MetcalfTravis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% RichardsonKevin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GolsonGreg 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Neftali Feliz 22 4.14 9 5 39 19 111.0 102 51 10 57 90 113 Scott Feldman 27 4.45 13 8 34 30 184.0 181 91 23 68 95 105 Guillermo Moscoso 26 4.59 7 5 25 17 102.0 106 52 13 37 69 102 Orlando Hernandez 44 4.74 2 2 10 6 38.0 30 20 7 18 30 99 Brandon McCarthy 26 4.77 6 5 19 19 94.1 95 50 13 42 57 98 Kevin Millwood 35 4.77 12 9 30 30 177.1 194 94 24 66 105 98 Tommy Hunter 23 5.11 11 10 31 30 181.1 201 103 28 57 91 92 Dustin Nippert 29 5.13 6 5 33 14 100.0 105 57 15 46 67 91 Derek Holland* 23 5.15 10 9 33 25 146.2 157 84 22 61 103 91 Mike Wood 30 5.40 4 4 21 11 71.2 82 43 11 26 34 87 Luis Mendoza 26 5.51 8 9 30 21 117.2 138 72 13 57 55 85 Matt Harrison* 24 5.57 7 8 22 22 114.2 135 71 16 47 56 84 Blake Beavan 21 5.73 8 10 27 27 143.0 172 91 25 43 49 82 Martin Perez* 19 5.76 5 6 24 18 89.0 102 57 12 56 52 81 Eric Hurley 24 5.98 3 5 12 12 64.2 73 43 14 27 40 78 Kris Benson 35 6.12 5 8 19 16 100.0 121 68 20 39 47 76 Elizardo Ramirez 27 6.24 7 10 26 22 131.1 165 91 27 43 52 75 Omar Poveda 22 6.31 6 10 21 21 111.1 130 78 20 66 53 74 Kasey Kiker* 22 6.53 5 9 25 23 114.1 134 83 21 77 72 72 Kennil Gomez 22 6.61 6 12 23 23 110.1 129 81 20 77 59 71 Michael Ballard* 26 6.62 7 13 28 25 141.1 187 104 28 52 64 71 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Frankie Francisco 30 3.66 3 1 59 0 59.0 50 24 7 25 61 128 Darren O'Day 27 3.88 4 2 62 0 62.2 57 27 7 23 48 121 C.J. Wilson* 29 3.97 5 2 66 0 65.2 59 29 7 33 63 118 Joaquin Benoit 32 4.29 4 2 38 0 42.0 38 20 5 22 38 109 Jason Grilli 33 4.70 3 2 55 0 61.1 61 32 6 34 51 100 Doug Mathis 27 4.86 1 1 19 3 37.0 40 20 5 14 20 96 Willie Eyre 31 4.91 2 2 38 2 58.2 63 32 7 26 31 95 William Vaughan 29 4.97 4 3 47 0 58.0 61 32 6 30 40 94 Eddie Guardado* 39 5.02 2 2 46 0 37.2 39 21 6 15 20 93 Warner Madrigal 26 5.16 2 2 61 0 66.1 70 38 10 31 44 91 Brian Gordon 31 5.26 5 5 41 4 75.1 84 44 12 26 39 89 Bryan Corey 36 5.40 6 7 44 7 83.1 96 50 13 24 40 87 Josh Rupe 27 5.62 4 5 30 9 83.1 94 52 11 44 42 83 Jailen Peguero 29 5.63 3 4 46 0 54.1 56 34 9 35 39 83 Pedro Strop 25 5.67 4 4 40 0 46.0 48 29 6 33 31 83 Jason Jennings 31 5.74 3 4 29 7 64.1 73 41 11 30 38 82 Derrick Turnbow 32 6.23 2 2 29 0 26.0 25 18 3 29 23 75 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 FranciscoFrank RP 57% 38% 5% RadatzDick FarnsworthKyle NelsonJeff O'DayDarren RP 52% 42% 7% SarmientoManny RobinsonJeff FrazierGeorge WilsonC.J. RP 41% 51% 8% LaRocheDave FuentesBrian ScurryRod FelizNeftali SP 33% 56% 12% BedrosianSteve FoytackPaul BrownBob BenoitJoaquin RP 34% 49% 18% LeskanicCurt DeLuciaRich WilliamsMike FeldmanScott SP 33% 60% 8% BannisterBrian KingEric NipperAl MoscosoGuillermo SP 35% 52% 13% TibbsJay HernandezManny AshbyAndy GrilliJason RP 14% 52% 34% SlocumbHeathcliff AlvarezJose NorthLou HernandezOrlando SP 34% 34% 32% DarwinDanny VanceDazzy GardnerMark McCarthyBrandon SP 26% 52% 22% RaineyChuck NipperAl LeaCharlie MillwoodKevin SP 18% 67% 14% MorganMike BoddickerMike ContrerasJose MathisDoug RP 17% 43% 40% WitteTrey WolfeBrian GinterMatt EyreWillie RP 11% 46% 44% SantiagoJose WilliamsTodd NolesDickie VaughanWilliam RP 9% 41% 50% CamachoErnie DoughertyJim DehoyosGabriel GuardadoEddie RP 18% 32% 49% ShouseBrian StantonMike BrazleAl HunterTommy SP 7% 59% 33% CunnaneWill JohnsonJoe WegmanBill NippertDustin SP 2% 37% 61% BackeBrandon SturtzeTanyon HollandAl HollandDerek SP 8% 54% 38% LillyTed RodgersBobby SchourekPete MadrigalWarner RP 4% 37% 59% WapnickSteve ThayerDale CapellanJose GordonBrian RP 4% 33% 63% GreerKenny GuerraMark SnellNate WoodMike SP 5% 27% 67% SteenstraKennie SorensenLary CondreyClay CoreyBryan RP 5% 27% 68% RuhleVern FowlerArt PavlasDave MendozaLuis SP 5% 39% 56% SwiftBill WhiteSean LaCossMike HarrisonMatt SP 4% 40% 56% MutisJeff JeffcoatMike MathesAlfred RupeJosh SP 1% 21% 78% CrabtreeTim MecirJim BookerGreg PegueroJailen RP 2% 22% 76% GermanFranklyn CookMike WilmetPaul StropPedro RP 5% 27% 69% GilfillanJason BrossTerry GraterolBeiker BeavanBlake SP 1% 29% 70% EilandDave MeadowsBrian TewksburyBob JenningsJason RP 1% 22% 77% BonesRicky GironRoberto NolesDickie PerezMartin SP 3% 27% 70% AllenHarold AndersonJimmy WilsonTrevor HurleyEric SP 3% 25% 72% TrombleyMike DuckworthBrandon CarlsonDan BensonKris SP 2% 17% 81% FernandezJared LazorkoJack SpringerDennis TurnbowDerrick RP 3% 18% 79% BeanColter HoughCharlie CorbinArchie RamirezElizardo SP 0% 10% 90% MeadowsBrian AbbottGlenn JohnsonMark PovedaOmar SP 0% 9% 91% StandridgeJason GalvezBalvino SmithSean KikerKasey SP 0% 6% 94% RedmanMark ScheidRich PerishoMatt GomezKennil SP 0% 5% 95% DaleCarl ReedChris FusonRobin BallardMichael SP 0% 3% 97% RamseyMike PhillipsHeath AndersonCraig Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 FranciscoFrank 49% 91% 84% 1% 64% O'DayDarren 44% 88% 12% 3% 66% WilsonC.J. 34% 85% 63% 0% 65% FelizNeftali 24% 84% 21% 0% 78% BenoitJoaquin 25% 76% 51% 0% 61% FeldmanScott 5% 63% 0% 1% 36% MoscosoGuillermo 9% 60% 1% 2% 37% GrilliJason 10% 59% 27% 0% 75% HernandezOrlando 21% 48% 25% 3% 29% McCarthyBrandon 5% 50% 0% 0% 28% MillwoodKevin 2% 44% 0% 1% 29% MathisDoug 12% 51% 0% 8% 47% EyreWillie 8% 43% 0% 2% 60% VaughanWilliam 6% 43% 3% 0% 56% GuardadoEddie 18% 43% 1% 7% 37% HunterTommy 1% 28% 0% 3% 12% NippertDustin 2% 30% 1% 0% 23% HollandDerek 1% 25% 1% 0% 15% MadrigalWarner 2% 29% 1% 0% 23% GordonBrian 3% 27% 0% 8% 20% WoodMike 4% 24% 1% 5% 27% CoreyBryan 4% 24% 0% 19% 28% MendozaLuis 2% 16% 0% 0% 61% HarrisonMatt 1% 15% 0% 0% 29% RupeJosh 0% 14% 0% 0% 39% PegueroJailen 1% 18% 5% 0% 24% StropPedro 3% 25% 4% 0% 45% BeavanBlake 0% 7% 0% 8% 8% JenningsJason 1% 15% 0% 0% 17% PerezMartin 0% 9% 0% 0% 41% HurleyEric 0% 8% 1% 1% 5% BensonKris 0% 6% 0% 1% 7% TurnbowDerrick 3% 14% 41% 0% 64% RamirezElizardo 0% 1% 0% 3% 3% PovedaOmar 0% 2% 0% 0% 7% KikerKasey 0% 1% 0% 0% 7% GomezKennil 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ RodriguezIvan .295 .332 .463 2601 9858 1403 2906 587 54 321 1346 520 1540 130 65 105 VizquelOmar .272 .338 .354 2774 10029 1391 2730 436 75 79 915 987 1018 392 157 83 YoungMichael .292 .340 .433 2051 8410 1177 2457 472 54 201 1038 621 1380 112 36 102 KinslerIan .262 .331 .447 1812 7202 1176 1884 406 37 286 815 708 1040 279 48 106 JonesAndruw .256 .337 .484 2007 7213 1158 1845 367 35 404 1226 833 1613 145 58 109 BlalockHank .261 .318 .455 1313 5051 690 1317 275 28 216 732 414 1008 20 6 99 HamiltonJosh .273 .335 .465 1111 4235 596 1155 224 28 178 697 386 915 68 25 105 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ FeldmanScott 144 124 0 4.60 482 365 2312 2304 301 891 1234 101 MillwoodKevin 211 178 0 4.30 540 531 3235 3347 371 1073 2354 104 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players, including the released and non-tendered are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
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Good job, Omar.
Roughly. I look at the team defense regressed heavily towards the mean, which works surprisingly not-badly.
Guess he's going into the Hall with Andy Pettitte.
And look at the catchers. Remember when Texas had a huge catching surplus?
It's kind of a weird team in that there's considerable upside potential there, but with so many players coming off injuries/ineffective seasons, any sensible projection system is going to hedge and show them as pretty mediocre. If they catch a few breaks with health and the development of young position players, I could easily see them contending. Probably a make or break year for Chris Davis and Saltalamacchia as future starters.
3 Young 104
2 Kinsler 111
R Cruz 116
C Hamilton 111
L Byrd 104
1 Blalock 97
D Jones 87
C Saltamacchia 81
S Andrus 85
C Teagarden 75
SS Arias 67
IF German 87
OF Murphy 99
1B Davis 95
The Rangers are still interested in signing Ben Sheets, who they had signed last year but whose contract was voided when he had to undergo surgery.
-- MWE
This is possible?
I'll also point out that Boston traded some of its pitching depth for a catcher relatively recently.
How is Kiker projected to issue more walks than Ks when he's never even come close to that in the minors?
Well, his walk rate shot up a year ago while his K rate went up only a little bit as he made the AA jump. Perisho, the #3 comp generated by ZiPS, had a slightly better K/BB ratio in AA at 21 and was almost 1:1 in the majors at 22.
-- MWE
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