BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

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1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:15 PM (#3379666)

They look like they could use Milton Bradley at DH. Right now Dan says their best option is Esteban German.

2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:21 PM (#3379673)

Ivan. So close to 3,000.

3. Vance W Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:26 PM (#3379683)

With a nice deep bullpen and plenty of reasonable starter options the Rangers could make some noise. For once the problem is offense and they are lacking a solid middle of the order guy. It no longer looks like Josh Hamilton will be that guy, given his inability to stay on the field. Unfortunately, the organization is cash-strapped and will not be able to make the kind of free agent splash necessary to significantly upgrade the offense.

4. JoeHova Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3379696)

I'm so happy for Nelson Cruz. I was afraid he would never get a full-time chance after being awful in his first couple call-ups with the Rangers. For whatever reason, the Brewers never liked him much so they gave him away but it always seemed like he had the skills to be a good player despite allegedly having too long of a swing to hit major league pitching. He's probably too old to have an especially long career but it was nice to see him get to play full-time and reward the Rangers for their confidence by making the all-star team.

5. Posada Posse Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:57 PM (#3379734)

Does ZiPS take into account team defense in projecting BABIP's for the individual pitchers? I'm slightly surprised that ZiPS would project Scott Feldman to allow less hits than innings pitched after what looks to be a somewhat flukish .276 BABIP in 2009, with a good defense behind him.

6. JJ1986 Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3379745)

Darren O'Day 27 3.88 4 2 62 0 62.2 57 27 7 23 48 121

Good job, Omar.

7. John DiFool2 Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:06 PM (#3379749)

Poor Andruw-even 404 homers probably won't be enough to garner him significantly more than 5% of the vote. I remember how excited I was when he hit those 2 World Series home runs as a 19 y/o Sept. callup. Likely Shawon Dunston Disease was to blame (as in, a gifted young ballplayer tries to coast on his pure ability, and never masters the various subtle nuances of the game).

8. Skinner! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:13 PM (#3379761)

Borbon's #1 comp is Steve Finley? That's pretty good news for the rangers. Although Endy Chavez wouldn't be so good.

9. Der_K is getting more dogmatic. Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:31 PM (#3379790)

Any team in baseball could have had O'Day for peanuts (he was only R5 available becuase he'd been outrighted earlier in the offseason) - the Rangers lucked into his being on their roster when he decided to outperform reasonable expectations.

10. Walt Davis Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:39 PM (#3379806)

What an f'ing old team this is. I thought this was supposed to be a young, up-and-coming team. Other than Andrus, there's not a decent position player under 28 with both Davis and Smoak projecting as disappointments. The rotation is reasonably young but looking at that roster, I'm not sure there's anybody other than Kinsler, Andrus and Feliz that I would want on a 3-year contract.

11. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:45 PM (#3379814)

Does ZiPS take into account team defense in projecting BABIP's for the individual pitchers?

Roughly. I look at the team defense regressed heavily towards the mean, which works surprisingly not-badly.

12. Posada Posse Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3379819)

Yup, thanks Dan.

13. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3379820)

Interesting to see Andrus and Smoak looking so similar.

14. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:53 PM (#3379826)

That's pretty ####### badass that El Duque still projects as a league average hurler at age 44 (even if it is only 38 IP).

15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:56 PM (#3379830)

"MillwoodKevin 211 178 0 4.30 540 531 3235 3347 371 1073 2354 104"

Guess he's going into the Hall with Andy Pettitte.

16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3379832)

That Smoak projection surprises me by being so low.

And look at the catchers. Remember when Texas had a huge catching surplus?

17. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3379845)

The Rangers don't look as good as I thought. I think I'm more bullish on them than Zips--I'll take the over on Smoak and Neftali--but the rest of the offense is either meh or aging. One of Salty, Max or Teagarden could still, emerge, though. The pitching is pretty meh, too. I'm really surprised they don't look better.

18. The Good Face Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3379867)

The Rangers don't look as good as I thought. I think I'm more bullish on them than Zips--I'll take the over on Smoak and Neftali--but the rest of the offense is either meh or aging. One of Salty, Max or Teagarden could still, emerge, though. The pitching is pretty meh, too. I'm really surprised they don't look better.

It's kind of a weird team in that there's considerable upside potential there, but with so many players coming off injuries/ineffective seasons, any sensible projection system is going to hedge and show them as pretty mediocre. If they catch a few breaks with health and the development of young position players, I could easily see them contending. Probably a make or break year for Chris Davis and Saltalamacchia as future starters.

19. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:36 PM (#3379898)

Texas has too many catchers and Boston has too many pitchers.

20. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:43 PM (#3379909)

So is this the team/lineup?

3 Young 104
2 Kinsler 111
R Cruz 116
C Hamilton 111
L Byrd 104
1 Blalock 97
D Jones 87
C Saltamacchia 81
S Andrus 85

C Teagarden 75
SS Arias 67
IF German 87
OF Murphy 99
1B Davis 95

21. RJ in TO Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:51 PM (#3379915)

Blalock and Byrd will almost certainly be gone, but the rest of that lineup is probably about right.

22. Vance W Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3379998)

Jones will be gone as well. My guess would be that Davis and Smoak share 1b/DH duties. I guess the good news is that with the exception of Young, Byrd and the rookie Andrus, the whole team underperformed relative to expectations in '09. I have to think more of the team is likely to have good years in 2010.

23. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 06, 2009 at 01:20 AM (#3380333)

According to TR Sullivan, the Rangers are going to make every effort to resign Byrd, but they don't have a lot of expectations of doing so. They have some interest in Jermaine Dye. Blalock and Jones are gone.

The Rangers are still interested in signing Ben Sheets, who they had signed last year but whose contract was voided when he had to undergo surgery.

-- MWE

24. NBarnes Posted: November 07, 2009 at 12:15 AM (#3381582)

Boston has too many pitchers.

This is possible?

I'll also point out that Boston traded some of its pitching depth for a catcher relatively recently.

25. OBSLCommish Posted: December 03, 2009 at 06:35 PM (#3402343)

Kasey Kiker* 22 6.53 5 9 25 23 114.1 134 83 21 77 72 72

How is Kiker projected to issue more walks than Ks when he's never even come close to that in the minors?

26. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 03, 2009 at 10:06 PM (#3402705)

How is Kiker projected to issue more walks than Ks when he's never even come close to that in the minors?

Well, his walk rate shot up a year ago while his K rate went up only a little bit as he made the AA jump. Perisho, the #3 comp generated by ZiPS, had a slightly better K/BB ratio in AA at 21 and was almost 1:1 in the majors at 22.

-- MWE

27. Rays&Sox; Posted: February 22, 2010 at 11:43 PM (#3465583)

Do Orlando Hernandez's comps or projection change if you use his "official" DOB of 10/11/1969?

28. J. Bowman, upon reflection, does hate pants Posted: April 03, 2010 at 04:42 PM (#3491705)

Is there any possibility of projecting C.J. Wilson as a starter? Or is this beyond the capacity of ZiPS?

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