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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
2010 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals
The good news? Strasburg and Storer are projected to be the best starter and reliever, respectively, on the Nats in 2010. The bad news? Two pitchers that have never pitched in the major leagues are projected to be the best starter and reliever.I know I said this last year, but I still think the Nationals could be a pretty decent team soon, despite the owner avoiding investing his windfall into the team like the plague. The offense projects to be pretty good, the primary problem being the Nats are an NL team with two designated hitters in Dunn and Willingham and both those players are key parts of the offense. It's a tricky situation for the Nats and they might be placed into a situation where they have to trade one of the two for a good bit less than ideal value. Unfortunately, Dunn is as bad as first baseman as he is an outfielder.
The pitching, of course, was a disaster this season, with the team finishing with a 5.02 ERA in a pitcher's park. They may not have been quite that bad consider the team's rather lackluster defense, but they were still pretty bottom of the barrel. Sadly, Jordan Zimmermann won't even step on the field until 2011 after elbow surgery. The Nats could have an adequate rotation if Strasburg has a great debut and Lannan continues the blood sorcery that enables him to get batters to weakly hit changeups not much slower than his fastballs and the team shells out big money on someone like Lackey. Yes, I'm laughing too at the last one.
It would also help if the Nats overcame their apparent love for relievers that walk a lot of batters, a fairly unique fetish among major league teams.
Offensive Projections Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Adam Dunn* lf 30 .256 .389 .512 155 531 86 136 26 1 36 103 112 178 3 1 143 Ryan Zimmerman 3b 25 .285 .353 .501 148 589 98 168 37 3 28 94 62 111 2 1 129 Josh Willingham lf 31 .264 .363 .491 125 428 66 113 27 2 22 67 55 99 4 2 130 Dmitri Young# 1b 36 .288 .361 .424 52 170 19 49 11 0 4 21 19 29 0 0 113 Elijah Dukes# rf 26 .254 .354 .432 101 347 48 88 20 3 12 55 49 80 8 8 113 Willie Harris* cf 32 .249 .347 .397 124 325 50 81 17 5 7 30 44 63 13 6 103 Michael Morse 1b 28 .271 .321 .420 90 314 37 85 19 2 8 48 19 59 1 1 100 Daryle Ward* 1b 35 .260 .332 .399 88 208 21 54 11 0 6 27 23 43 1 0 98 Ian Desmond ss 24 .270 .334 .388 121 441 52 119 25 3 7 34 38 107 15 4 96 Cristian Guzman# ss 32 .296 .326 .409 108 443 63 131 22 5 6 41 19 58 4 4 99 Austin Kearns rf 30 .237 .341 .377 106 337 46 80 16 2 9 42 46 76 2 2 96 Jesus Flores c 25 .260 .318 .417 73 223 24 58 12 1 7 37 17 59 0 1 99 Nyjer Morgan* cf 29 .281 .339 .359 112 423 78 119 17 5 2 38 30 71 35 14 91 Josh Bard# c 32 .251 .320 .371 94 291 26 73 18 1 5 35 29 50 0 1 88 Jorge Padilla rf 30 .272 .329 .361 118 393 54 107 16 2 5 30 27 57 11 8 88 Norris Hopper rf 31 .281 .326 .342 92 310 40 87 12 2 1 23 21 26 13 5 83 Justin Maxwell cf 26 .224 .303 .361 112 388 56 87 14 3 11 41 40 130 22 6 80 Alberto Gonzalez ss 27 .267 .304 .360 85 247 28 66 13 2 2 26 12 26 1 1 80 Joel Guzman 3b 25 .243 .287 .380 126 460 51 112 23 2 12 59 26 107 3 2 80 Matt Whitney 3b 26 .235 .297 .350 132 460 46 108 24 1 9 45 38 122 1 1 76 Chris Marrero 1b 21 .228 .291 .361 116 435 44 99 21 2 11 49 34 120 1 3 77 Wil Nieves c 32 .254 .299 .333 70 213 18 54 9 1 2 24 13 36 1 0 72 Pete Orr* 3b 31 .245 .292 .358 128 371 49 91 15 6 5 38 21 77 13 6 76 Danny Espinosa# ss 23 .211 .303 .345 137 513 70 108 25 4 12 56 60 165 20 11 76 Rogearvin Bernadina* cf 26 .244 .306 .324 84 312 39 76 12 2 3 22 27 77 18 8 72 Seth Bynum 2b 29 .227 .273 .357 123 428 45 97 19 2 11 47 27 132 4 3 70 Michael Burgess* rf 21 .205 .274 .338 137 517 47 106 23 2 14 57 43 185 6 6 66 Jamie Burke c 38 .231 .270 .333 43 117 10 27 6 0 2 12 7 22 0 0 63 Defensive Projections Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Dunn* Pr/177 Pr/143 Pr/194 Zimmerman Ex/93 Willingham Pr/98 Pr/98 Young# Pr/207 Dukes# Av/170 Pr/104 Av/170 Harris* Av/131 Av/131 Vg/95 Av/93 Morse Av/120 Fr/120 Pr/128 Fr/120 Fr/120 Ward* Pr/111 Pr/111 Pr/111 Desmond Vg/147 Vg/147 Guzman# Av/115 Fr/115 Kearns Vg/76 Flores Av Morgan* Ex/75 Ex/133 Bard# Pr Padilla Av/83 Av/136 Hopper Vg/101 Vg/73 Vg/66 Maxwell Av/86 Av/135 Av/86 Gonzalez Av/63 Fr/121 Guzman Av/112 Av/112 Fr/90 Fr/90 Whitney Av/188 Fr/188 Marrero Av/170 Fr/199 Fr/199 Nieves Av Orr* Av/67 Av/87 Pr/87 Av/87 Fr/87 Av/87 Espinosa# Vg/122 Bernadina* Vg/107 Av/107 Vg/107 Bynum Av/120 Fr/142 Burgess* Av/134 Burke Av Fr/100 * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 DunnAdam LF 68% 25% 5% 1% 0% TartabullDanny KinerRalph LuzinskiGreg ZimmermanRyan 3B 54% 34% 9% 2% 1% RamirezAramis ChavezEric JonesWillie WillinghamJosh LF 41% 35% 15% 7% 2% FlagsteadIra TaylorDanny BriggsJohnny YoungDmitri 1B 6% 26% 32% 30% 6% SeguiDavid BergmanDave WertzVic DukesElijah RF 7% 22% 25% 28% 18% KearnsAustin GrossGabe GeigerGary GuzmanCristian SS 14% 27% 37% 17% 5% JurgesBilly ApplingLukeGrudzielanekMark HarrisWillie CF 13% 22% 36% 23% 6% MilnerEddie ThompsonMilt LandisJim DesmondIan SS 24% 35% 30% 9% 1% FrancoJulio BlauserJeff LozadoWillie MorseMike 1B 1% 6% 13% 43% 37% QuinlanRobb GutierrezJesse RussellRip WardDaryle 1B 1% 6% 10% 38% 46% MabryJohn WertzVic CroweGeorge MorganNyjer CF 6% 16% 34% 31% 14% ThompsonMilt PodsednikScott SanchezAlex FloresJesus C 9% 34% 33% 22% 3% HayesBill LindseyBill MacfarlaneMike KearnsAustin RF 1% 4% 11% 28% 57% ArnovichMorrie HarperTommy StegmanDave HopperNorris RF 0% 1% 2% 10% 87% OwensEric PalmeiroOrlando RobinsonKerry PadillaJorge RF 0% 1% 3% 12% 84% OwensEric CowensAl HatcherBilly BardJosh C 1% 14% 31% 40% 14% CasanovaRaul SaxDave DeckerSteve MaxwellJustin CF 0% 4% 21% 41% 34% PorterBo PowellDante TerreroLuis GonzalezAlberto SS 1% 3% 24% 45% 26% BurnettJohnnyWhiteheadBurgess GuerreroMario GuzmanJoel 3B 0% 0% 2% 14% 83% LeonJose MoronkoJeff BellRicky OrrPete 3B 0% 2% 4% 13% 81% FoxAndy BrookensTom BurkeJamie NievesWil C 0% 0% 3% 27% 70% SpohrerAl HeintzChris WilsonJimmie WhitneyMatthew 1B 1% 1% 0% 1% 96% NenDick StarkMatt LaCockPete BernadinaRoger CF 0% 0% 3% 22% 75% HeathcoteCliff BergeronPeter WinninghamHerm MarreroChristophe 1B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99%GuerreroInocenci JonesRyan DensonDrew EspinosaDanny SS 0% 3% 16% 35% 46% MachadoAnderson BrumleyMike LopezFelipe BynumSeth 2B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% CottonJohn CarusoJoe HansenJed BurkeJamie C 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% HemsleyRollie GuerraMike DifeliceMike BurgessMichael RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% BrownAndy MartinezChito RobnettRichie Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB DunnAdam 9% 64% 50% 48% 1% 0% 75% 0% ZimmermanRyan 28% 20% 42% 25% 18% 1% 34% 0% WillinghamJosh 10% 32% 35% 26% 0% 0% 13% 0% YoungDmitri 37% 33% 9% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% DukesElijah 5% 23% 8% 5% 0% 1% 0% 0% GuzmanCristian 43% 5% 2% 2% 0% 13% 0% 0% HarrisWillie 3% 17% 3% 2% 0% 6% 0% 0% DesmondIan 13% 8% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% MorseMike 16% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% WardDaryle 12% 12% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% MorganNyjer 27% 9% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 80% FloresJesus 12% 4% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% KearnsAustin 2% 11% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% HopperNorris 24% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PadillaJorge 16% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BardJosh 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MaxwellJustin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 9% GonzalezAlberto 15% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GuzmanJoel 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% OrrPete 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% NievesWil 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WhitneyMatthew 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% BernadinaRoger 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% MarreroChristophe 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EspinosaDanny 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% BynumSeth 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BurkeJamie 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BurgessMichael 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pitching Statistics - Starters Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Stephen Strasburg 21 4.18 10 9 20 20 114.0 115 53 14 36 113 103 Jordan Zimmermann 24 4.31 5 5 22 22 117.0 117 56 14 43 106 100 John Lannan* 25 4.39 11 12 33 33 194.2 203 95 22 70 99 99 J.D. Martin 27 4.71 7 9 28 19 109.0 120 57 15 30 66 92 Garrett Mock 27 4.93 6 9 37 20 122.1 138 67 13 51 98 88 Bradley Meyers 24 5.08 6 9 24 23 118.2 140 67 12 46 73 85 Marco Estrada 26 5.24 6 10 31 25 132.1 153 77 16 52 88 83 Collin Balester 24 5.33 9 14 29 29 150.1 173 89 22 57 91 81 Shairon Martis 23 5.34 6 10 29 28 153.1 174 91 21 65 82 81 Scott Olsen* 26 5.40 6 10 26 26 143.1 165 86 23 56 89 80 Horacio Ramirez* 30 5.48 4 7 32 14 92.0 111 56 12 32 40 79 Luis Atilano 25 5.53 5 9 24 20 109.0 133 67 15 37 48 78 Ross Detwiler* 24 5.58 6 11 30 29 137.0 165 85 14 73 93 78 Matt Chico* 27 5.59 3 6 19 18 85.1 99 53 13 42 51 77 Craig Stammen 26 5.59 6 11 29 26 140.0 172 87 19 52 74 77 Livan Hernandez 35 5.67 7 14 29 29 176.1 224 111 23 59 81 76 Aaron Thompson* 23 6.04 4 9 23 23 117.2 147 79 16 62 60 72 Jesse English* 25 6.15 5 12 27 22 105.1 121 72 17 70 64 70 Jeff Mandel 25 6.35 5 12 25 24 123.1 164 87 18 54 61 68 Zach Segovia 27 6.41 3 9 38 13 92.2 123 66 14 45 49 68 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Drew Storen 22 3.78 2 1 29 0 33.1 32 14 4 12 32 115 Tyler Clippard 25 4.01 5 4 71 0 85.1 74 38 10 44 86 108 Sean Burnett* 27 4.18 3 2 77 0 66.2 59 31 7 34 51 103 Jason Bergmann 28 4.42 4 4 77 0 77.1 78 38 9 32 61 98 Doug Slaten* 30 4.53 2 2 54 0 43.2 47 22 5 17 30 95 Saul Rivera 32 4.70 5 6 69 0 84.1 93 44 7 39 56 92 Ron Villone* 40 4.88 2 3 64 0 51.2 54 28 6 29 37 89 Ryan Mattheus 26 4.97 2 3 36 0 38.0 39 21 5 19 28 87 Logan Kensing 27 5.07 2 3 54 0 60.1 64 34 8 29 47 85 Mike MacDougal 33 5.15 1 2 58 0 57.2 61 33 5 41 43 84 Dave Williams* 31 5.26 2 3 40 0 53.0 60 31 8 23 36 82 Atahualpa Severino* 25 5.54 4 7 45 0 65.0 70 40 8 43 46 78 Victor Garate* 25 5.81 1 3 53 0 57.1 63 37 7 40 44 75 * - Throws Left ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 StorenDrew RP 35% 48% 17% HaynesHeath StricklandScott NenRobb ClippardTyler RP 22% 62% 16% JacksonMike PlunkEric BochtlerDoug StrasburgStephen SP 42% 47% 12% BondermanJeremy MyersBrett VazquezJavier BurnettSean RP 19% 53% 29% ChoateRandy MohlerMike NortonPhil ZimmermannJordan SP 33% 53% 14% SmithPete MyersBrett MillwoodKevin LannanJohn SP 24% 60% 16% LathamBill SimmonsScott JacomeJason BergmannJay RP 8% 53% 39% RigganJerrod WertzBill NakamuraMicheal SlatenDoug RP 11% 45% 43% HavensBrad VenafroMike EischenJoey RiveraSaul RP 5% 40% 55% GryboskiKevin McDowellRoger BernardDwight MartinJ.D. SP 14% 52% 34% SmithRoy TelghederDave ParkerClay VilloneRon RP 12% 30% 58% StantonMike FasseroJeff McMahonDon MockGarrett SP 6% 51% 43% JacksonRoy Lee WilliamsBrian NolesDickie MattheusRyan RP 8% 35% 57% BennettShayne BorowskiJoe MarquezJeff KensingLogan RP 3% 28% 69% DonnellyBrendan HarvilleChad VillanoMike MeyersBradley SP 5% 43% 52% StableinGeorge NunezClemente McDowellRoger MacDougalMike RP 6% 28% 66% ThomasRoy BochtlerDoug LeeDavid EstradaMarco SP 3% 35% 62% DavisJason JohnsonJason BirkbeckMike WilliamsDavid RP 2% 18% 80% MahayRon EischenJoey ClementsPat BalesterCollin SP 1% 28% 71% ChristiansenClay SnyderJohn IrelandEric MartisShairon SP 1% 25% 74% CummingsSteve PooleJim RoweTom OlsenScott SP 1% 25% 74% CeruttiJohn SoderstromSteve SnareRyan RamirezHoracio SP 1% 13% 85% OvermireStubby BallardJeff FossasTony AtilanoLuis SP 1% 20% 79% ChristopherMike LincolnMike FreedDan SeverinoAtahualpa RP 1% 17% 82% MancusoPaul WilliamsMike BrownChad DetwilerRoss SP 1% 18% 82% ThompsonDerek SmithMatt ViningKen ChicoMatt SP 1% 17% 82% GeorgeChris FloresRandy PulsipherBill StammenCraig SP 0% 16% 84% RasnerDarrell StechschulteGene AhearnePat HernandezLivan SP 1% 13% 86% NagyCharles JohnsonJason TerrellWalt GarateVictor RP 1% 12% 88% HamiltonJimmy MiglioJohn RomeroJ.C. ThompsonAaron SP 0% 6% 94% LockhartBruce GeorgeChris HinckleyMike EnglishJesse SP 0% 5% 95% DevineJoey MusserNeal OjalaKirt MandelJeff SP 0% 2% 98% PauleyDavid TorresMelqui YettRich SegoviaZach SP 0% 1% 99% GuzmanPedro BonineEddie RodneyLee Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 StorenDrew 35% 75% 63% 11% 70% ClippardTyler 17% 75% 84% 0% 56% StrasburgStephen 12% 65% 78% 6% 51% BurnettSean 14% 65% 11% 0% 58% ZimmermannJordan 8% 57% 51% 1% 46% LannanJohn 5% 52% 0% 2% 55% BergmannJay 5% 48% 15% 0% 58% SlatenDoug 11% 48% 4% 5% 70% RiveraSaul 4% 34% 1% 0% 86% MartinJ.D. 2% 32% 0% 19% 33% VilloneRon 9% 36% 12% 1% 65% MockGarrett 0% 22% 16% 0% 72% MattheusRyan 8% 34% 10% 0% 53% KensingLogan 2% 25% 14% 0% 47% MeyersBradley 0% 15% 0% 0% 72% MacDougalMike 5% 23% 13% 0% 78% EstradaMarco 0% 11% 0% 0% 44% WilliamsDavid 1% 15% 3% 1% 36% BalesterCollin 0% 5% 0% 0% 20% MartisShairon 0% 6% 0% 0% 29% OlsenScott 0% 5% 0% 0% 12% RamirezHoracio 1% 10% 0% 4% 41% AtilanoLuis 0% 4% 0% 3% 27% SeverinoAtahualpa 1% 10% 4% 0% 48% DetwilerRoss 0% 3% 1% 0% 70% ChicoMatt 0% 5% 0% 0% 23% StammenCraig 0% 2% 0% 0% 35% HernandezLivan 0% 4% 0% 3% 36% GarateVictor 0% 6% 13% 0% 39% ThompsonAaron 0% 1% 0% 0% 33% EnglishJesse 0% 1% 0% 0% 17% MandelJeff 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% SegoviaZach 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% Extrapolated Career Statistics Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ DunnAdam .244 .377 .490 2626 9021 1467 2200 434 13 587 1565 1848 3026 84 45 128 GuzmanCristian .276 .310 .387 1944 7667 1042 2118 351 114 91 666 353 1080 143 91 83 ZimmermanRyan .272 .342 .468 2413 9565 1496 2601 560 43 408 1410 1022 1838 39 24 117 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ LannanJohn 162 184 0 4.40 493 483 2882 2967 344 1108 1500 98 All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2010 ZiPS Projections Archive
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
These projections were sponsored in part by:
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 01, 2009 at 03:55 PM | 33 comment(s)
Related News: Washington, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Washington, Projections, ZIPS
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So, based on those career lines, is Dunn a HoFer? Is Zim?
I'd say Zim is easily with that line, given his defense, and position.
Dunn, I have no idea, since I'm sure that most defensive metrics will show that he's giving back a tremendous amount of his offensive value while lumbering around in the outfield.
ZiPS really needs Bd, Ho, or Ug.
It's not that unique, I'm sorry to say.
I'll take the over on Flores' OPS+.
Lots of teams end up with relievers that walk a lot of batters, but the Nats seem to actually want them. Like they're at the grocery store and see OMG MIKE MACDOUGAL IS AVAILABLE BUY BUY!!!!
On Zimmerman and the HoF -- that line might deserve it and 2400+ games is a lot for a 3B but no way does he make it. A 117 OPS+, no major milestones, at 3B. That sort of a line for a 3B hasn't come close to cutting it with the BBWAA unless you're Brooks Robinson (Santo, Nettles, Boyer, Bando, Cey, Bell, Hack, soon Ventura, soon Rolen) so it would take a major shift in BBWAA standards. That shift might happen by the time he's done (we're seeing some already) or Zimmerman might win a dozen gold gloves.
Also, Brooks Robinson wasn't that good a hitter - 104 OPS+. According to BBRef, he was a +14 run third baseman over his career - I think Zimmermann can hover around +10 for his career, and make up the difference with better hitting.
I wonder, should the Nats just eat most of Dunn's salary and move him to an AL team for as good a haul of prospects as possible? He would definitely be the best DH on the market, and at least he can be a warm body in the field, if necessary (which you can't say of Thome, Vlad, or Matsui). Assuming John Lackey doesn't sign with them, it's not like they're gonna add a ton of payroll.
His bat has really developed over the past couple of years. The Jeff Blauser comp is pretty apt, I think - 10-15 HR and enough walks to post a decent OBP.
-- MWE
Right, he just won 300 gold gloves. And played in 2900 games.
If you take Brooks from ages 21-35, he had a 110 OPS+ in 2300 games and 9500 PA and that is comparable.
The 3000+ career K's by Dunn were certainlu eye-catching, but I don't think he'll stick around that long.
My mind just broke.
He probably had a lot less muscle then!
The things about Dunn is that while he's not really a sloth out there, he's amazingly clumsy. If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster.
LOL
I should let this go but ... this is just plain wrong and ignorant of history.
Players with at least 1000 games at 3B, elected to the HoF with an OPS+ below 130 (Wade Boggs):
Brooks Robinson, 16 gold gloves, greatest fielding 3B of all time, WS hero, 29000 games played (nearly all at 3B)
Pie Traynor, elected in 1948, 320 BA, considered the greatest fielding 3B to that time
Players with at least 1000 games at 3B and at least 8000 PA and an OPS+ between Robinson/Traynor and Boggs not elected. Not only not elected, not even close:
Ron Santo 125 (also 5 gold gloves)
Bob Elliott 124
Ron Cey 121
Darrell Evans 119 (2700 games overall)
Sal Bando 119
Stan Hack 119 (301 BA career)
Ken Boyer 116 (5 gold gloves)
Robin Ventura 114 (6 gold gloves -- I'm jumping the gun but I'll guess under 10%, probably one and done)
Toby Harrah 114 (plus 800 games as a SS)
Graig Nettles 110 (2700 games, 2 gold gloves ... more if not for Brooks)
Buddy Bell 109 (2400 games, 6 gold gloves)
Eddie Yost 109
The guys elected? Schmidt (548 HR), Mathews (512 HR and he had to wait a few years), Brett (3154 hits, 305 BA), Boggs (3010 hits, 328 BA). Noticing any pattern there?
Feel free to claim that Zimmerman might make it with that line. Feel free to claim that standards are changing so you think that by the time he's done, his defense will be properly valued and his offense properly adjusted for position and he'll probably make it. But there is absolutely no basis to claim that he would certainly make it with that line. As I said, those guys didn't get a real sniff. Don't forget, Santo was one and done -- something embarrassing enough they put him back on the ballot and he's still puttering around through the VC process.
Ryan Zimmerman is not better than Ron Santo. He's not better than Ken Boyer or Robin Ventura or Graig Nettes and probably not better than Buddy Bell. It will take an enormous shift in BBWAA standards for a 3B with that line to get a serious look.
There are three issues. First, the BBWAA has just always had unsupportably high standards for 3B. Second, given that history, every candidate's defense will pale in comparison to Robinson so candidates need offense that won't pale in comparison to Boggs/Brett. I want folks to recognize that last bit particularly. At the moment, the minimum HoF standards for 3B offense are Wade Boggs and George Brett (or Chipper Jones if you prefer). That is well above the minimum line for 1B and corner OF. Third, for a Zimmerman type, any voter will be able to take a look and see those same dozen names, including 5 who were also good defenders, and conclude that a 3B with a 115 OPS+ and a good glove doesn't stand out and isn't HoF-worthy.
It's a joke to me that Santo and Nettles aren't in. The other guys you can ding for having short careers (this would be Zimmerman's main argument if he put up that line, assuming almost all those 2400 games came at 3B) but Boyer, Ventura and Bell certainly wouldn't be bad choices either. Of the guys who weren't so good defensively, I might put Evans in but he had fewer than 1400 starts at 3B. I'd give Harrah a look because of the years at SS -- I wonder if he was actually pretty good defensively (most SS who move to 3B are good 3B) and from 24-33 he put up a 122 OPS+ which is quite nice for a SS/3B but obviously didn't do much of note outside that 10-year peak. Stan Hack's got a case (nice OBP!). The others probably deserved more votes than they got but are clearly not HoFers in my opinion so I can't get too upset about that.
That's what I love about him!
At first, for example, he doesn't have terrible range. He can stretch with that big frame. He can catch the ball. Occasionally he looks pretty good.
But every now and then, say, like 1 time out of 20, he just decides to field the ball the same way I would. It's like a live grenade. Or it's like a hot laser that just goes right through him somehow.
Also, in future projections, or maybe just starting next year, is there a way that groundball percentages for pitchers can be added? I know a lot of people who check these ZIPS out are people in simulation leagues, and that is as important as K and BB rates I believe. A lot of pitchers we can get a rough estimate based on previous seasons, but guys like Strasburg and Storen that you have here don't have much pro experience, so it causes curiosity.
Through age 29, Tim Raines' career BABIP was .323, against a 1989 NL average of .277 (about a 7.5 per cent less at the start of a mini-era when hitting fell off rapidly). If you adjust Morgan's .357 by 7.5 percent, you get .330, so he's a better BABIPer than Raines, who was quite high in comparison to his league.
So if ZiPS expects a regression to the league mean, then maybe Morgan's projection is a little low.
(Incidentally, if I'm reading Morgan's BB-Ref page right, he went to high school in Alberta. Is he a closeted Canadian?)
EDIT: It will be interesting to compare Morgan's ZiPS with Skip Schumaker, another high BABIP type (not as high as Morgan) who shows up in Morgan's age 28 comps.
Apparently, he left home at 16 to play junior hockey in Canada. Here's an article that gets into it a little more. I'm guessing he's the most distinguished alumnus of the North Okanagan Kings of the Kootenay International Junior Hockey League.
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