For Strasburg were just AFL stats looked at? Or do you look at San Diego State stats too?

Had to look at SDSU stats. I probably only translate college stats for 1 or 2 players a year when I absolutely have to. Assume much larger than normal error bars.

The company line is that the Nationals have a shedload of great young pitchers. I'm at a loss to spot many up there, unless the natural aging curve for a 23/24 y.o. means that Detwiler, Balester and Martis ought to see their ERAs fall to league average. (I don't count Strasburg's projection yet. Not enough professional evidence.)

So, based on those career lines, is Dunn a HoFer? Is Zim?

So, based on those career lines, is Dunn a HoFer? Is Zim?

I'd say Zim is easily with that line, given his defense, and position.

Dunn, I have no idea, since I'm sure that most defensive metrics will show that he's giving back a tremendous amount of his offensive value while lumbering around in the outfield.

I'm glad that Zimmerman is developing into something resembling a "great" player. I saw one of those games after he was called up his draft year where they played him at SS. Very cool.

Dunn* Pr/177 Pr/143 Pr/194

ZiPS really needs Bd, Ho, or Ug.

It would also help if the Nats overcame their apparent love for relievers that walk a lot of batters, a fairly unique fetish among major league teams.

It's not that unique, I'm sorry to say.

I'll take the over on Flores' OPS+.

It's not that unique, I'm sorry to say.


Lots of teams end up with relievers that walk a lot of batters, but the Nats seem to actually want them. Like they're at the grocery store and see OMG MIKE MACDOUGAL IS AVAILABLE BUY BUY!!!!

I had no idea Ian Desmond was so good.

Ya he's never been ranked that high on prospect lists -- he's got a shot at the All-Star team. On the other hand, Nyjer Morgan's glory day seems to be over.

Dan, just to make sure here, but did you use AFL stats for Strasburg? And if so, do you use AFL stats for all players?

Que? By OPS+, Willingham is projected to his best ever and Dunn to his 2nd best ever? Don't look right.

On Zimmerman and the HoF -- that line might deserve it and 2400+ games is a lot for a 3B but no way does he make it. A 117 OPS+, no major milestones, at 3B. That sort of a line for a 3B hasn't come close to cutting it with the BBWAA unless you're Brooks Robinson (Santo, Nettles, Boyer, Bando, Cey, Bell, Hack, soon Ventura, soon Rolen) so it would take a major shift in BBWAA standards. That shift might happen by the time he's done (we're seeing some already) or Zimmerman might win a dozen gold gloves.

I hope that in 15-20 years, baseball writers will be looking at things like defensive metrics and positional adjustments for HoF voting. And if they do, Zimmermann has an extremely good chance of making it, IMO.

Also, Brooks Robinson wasn't that good a hitter - 104 OPS+. According to BBRef, he was a +14 run third baseman over his career - I think Zimmermann can hover around +10 for his career, and make up the difference with better hitting.

I wonder, should the Nats just eat most of Dunn's salary and move him to an AL team for as good a haul of prospects as possible? He would definitely be the best DH on the market, and at least he can be a warm body in the field, if necessary (which you can't say of Thome, Vlad, or Matsui). Assuming John Lackey doesn't sign with them, it's not like they're gonna add a ton of payroll.

I had no idea Ian Desmond was so good.

His bat has really developed over the past couple of years. The Jeff Blauser comp is pretty apt, I think - 10-15 HR and enough walks to post a decent OBP.

-- MWE

Kudos for even attempting to project a guy with no pro experience. Strasburg will be interesting.

Also, Brooks Robinson wasn't that good a hitter - 104 OPS+.

Right, he just won 300 gold gloves. And played in 2900 games.

If you take Brooks from ages 21-35, he had a 110 OPS+ in 2300 games and 9500 PA and that is comparable.

Zimmerman would certainly make the HOF with that line. I love the fact that he's still only 25.

The 3000+ career K's by Dunn were certainlu eye-catching, but I don't think he'll stick around that long.

What's always struck me as strange about Adam Dunn is that he's not as slow as one would think.

Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...

Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...Page 1 of 1 pages

My mind just broke.

Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...

He probably had a lot less muscle then!

The things about Dunn is that while he's not really a sloth out there, he's amazingly clumsy. If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster.

"If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster."

LOL

Zimmerman would certainly make the HOF with that line.

I should let this go but ... this is just plain wrong and ignorant of history.

Players with at least 1000 games at 3B, elected to the HoF with an OPS+ below 130 (Wade Boggs):

Brooks Robinson, 16 gold gloves, greatest fielding 3B of all time, WS hero, 29000 games played (nearly all at 3B)
Pie Traynor, elected in 1948, 320 BA, considered the greatest fielding 3B to that time

Players with at least 1000 games at 3B and at least 8000 PA and an OPS+ between Robinson/Traynor and Boggs not elected. Not only not elected, not even close:

Ron Santo 125 (also 5 gold gloves)
Bob Elliott 124
Ron Cey 121
Darrell Evans 119 (2700 games overall)
Sal Bando 119
Stan Hack 119 (301 BA career)
Ken Boyer 116 (5 gold gloves)
Robin Ventura 114 (6 gold gloves -- I'm jumping the gun but I'll guess under 10%, probably one and done)
Toby Harrah 114 (plus 800 games as a SS)
Graig Nettles 110 (2700 games, 2 gold gloves ... more if not for Brooks)
Buddy Bell 109 (2400 games, 6 gold gloves)
Eddie Yost 109

The guys elected? Schmidt (548 HR), Mathews (512 HR and he had to wait a few years), Brett (3154 hits, 305 BA), Boggs (3010 hits, 328 BA). Noticing any pattern there?

Feel free to claim that Zimmerman might make it with that line. Feel free to claim that standards are changing so you think that by the time he's done, his defense will be properly valued and his offense properly adjusted for position and he'll probably make it. But there is absolutely no basis to claim that he would certainly make it with that line. As I said, those guys didn't get a real sniff. Don't forget, Santo was one and done -- something embarrassing enough they put him back on the ballot and he's still puttering around through the VC process.

Ryan Zimmerman is not better than Ron Santo. He's not better than Ken Boyer or Robin Ventura or Graig Nettes and probably not better than Buddy Bell. It will take an enormous shift in BBWAA standards for a 3B with that line to get a serious look.

There are three issues. First, the BBWAA has just always had unsupportably high standards for 3B. Second, given that history, every candidate's defense will pale in comparison to Robinson so candidates need offense that won't pale in comparison to Boggs/Brett. I want folks to recognize that last bit particularly. At the moment, the minimum HoF standards for 3B offense are Wade Boggs and George Brett (or Chipper Jones if you prefer). That is well above the minimum line for 1B and corner OF. Third, for a Zimmerman type, any voter will be able to take a look and see those same dozen names, including 5 who were also good defenders, and conclude that a 3B with a 115 OPS+ and a good glove doesn't stand out and isn't HoF-worthy.

It's a joke to me that Santo and Nettles aren't in. The other guys you can ding for having short careers (this would be Zimmerman's main argument if he put up that line, assuming almost all those 2400 games came at 3B) but Boyer, Ventura and Bell certainly wouldn't be bad choices either. Of the guys who weren't so good defensively, I might put Evans in but he had fewer than 1400 starts at 3B. I'd give Harrah a look because of the years at SS -- I wonder if he was actually pretty good defensively (most SS who move to 3B are good 3B) and from 24-33 he put up a 122 OPS+ which is quite nice for a SS/3B but obviously didn't do much of note outside that 10-year peak. Stan Hack's got a case (nice OBP!). The others probably deserved more votes than they got but are clearly not HoFers in my opinion so I can't get too upset about that.

The things about Dunn is that while he's not really a sloth out there, he's amazingly clumsy. If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster.

That's what I love about him!

At first, for example, he doesn't have terrible range. He can stretch with that big frame. He can catch the ball. Occasionally he looks pretty good.

But every now and then, say, like 1 time out of 20, he just decides to field the ball the same way I would. It's like a live grenade. Or it's like a hot laser that just goes right through him somehow.

It seems you expect Nyjer Morgan to have a significant drop off in production. You have him hitting 20 points below his career average (admittedly, a small sample size), and his OBP to do the same. But he is only turning 30 years old halfway through next season, so he can still be considered to be in his "prime" years. Actually, the projection here would make it his worst season ever as a pro baseball player. Just wondering the reasoning for this. Because of his skillset, his BABIP is naturally high, so I am assuming you don't believe it to be inflated and for him to come back down to earth.

Also, in future projections, or maybe just starting next year, is there a way that groundball percentages for pitchers can be added? I know a lot of people who check these ZIPS out are people in simulation leagues, and that is as important as K and BB rates I believe. A lot of pitchers we can get a rough estimate based on previous seasons, but guys like Strasburg and Storen that you have here don't have much pro experience, so it causes curiosity.

Boxkutter makes an interesting point about Morgan's BABIP. His career BABIP is .357, and his lowest was with the Pirates last year, at .325. With the Nationals' he managed an astounding .398. The 2009 NL league average was .299.

Through age 29, Tim Raines' career BABIP was .323, against a 1989 NL average of .277 (about a 7.5 per cent less at the start of a mini-era when hitting fell off rapidly). If you adjust Morgan's .357 by 7.5 percent, you get .330, so he's a better BABIPer than Raines, who was quite high in comparison to his league.

So if ZiPS expects a regression to the league mean, then maybe Morgan's projection is a little low.

(Incidentally, if I'm reading Morgan's BB-Ref page right, he went to high school in Alberta. Is he a closeted Canadian?)

EDIT: It will be interesting to compare Morgan's ZiPS with Skip Schumaker, another high BABIP type (not as high as Morgan) who shows up in Morgan's age 28 comps.

At least I'll have elbow room again. Just wait'll two years from now, we'll only be two years away from being two years away from being two years away...

At least I'll have elbow room again. Just wait'll two years from now, we'll only be two years away from being two years away from being two years away...

The curse of the Washington baseball fan.

Incidentally, if I'm reading Morgan's BB-Ref page right, he went to high school in Alberta. Is he a closeted Canadian?

Apparently, he left home at 16 to play junior hockey in Canada. Here's an article that gets into it a little more. I'm guessing he's the most distinguished alumnus of the North Okanagan Kings of the Kootenay International Junior Hockey League.

From Wikipedia:

Morgan occasionally refers to himself as "Tony Plush", which he says is his "gentleman's name".

Awesome.

Request for Jerry Owens, por favor.

275/331/346 for Owens.

Thanks Dan!